Category: Energy

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Expecting a Strong Finish in 2024; Outlook for 2025 Remains Positive

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 15, 2024

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. InPlay Oil generated third quarter net income of C$146 thousand or C$0.00 per share compared to C$9.2 million or C$0.08 per share during the prior year period. We had predicted net income in the amount of C$423 thousand or C$0.00 per share. Average quarterly production declined to 8,206 barrels of oil equivalents per day (boe/d) compared to 9,003 boe/d in the third quarter of 2023 and our estimate of 8,238 boe/d.

Corporate 2024 guidance. While InPlay has maintained its production guidance of 8,700 to 9,000 boe/d, commodity price expectations were lowered, and operating expenses are expected to be in the range of C$13.50 to C$15.50 per boe/d compared to prior guidance of C$13.00 to C$15.25 per boe/d. Capital expenditures are expected to total $63 million compared with prior guidance of C$64 million to C$67 million. Adjusted funds flow is expected to be in the range of C$70 million to C$73 million compared to previous expectations of C$80 million to C$85 million.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

TransAlta Finalizes Acquisition of Heartland Generation in $542 Million Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– TransAlta acquires Heartland Generation for $542 million, adjusting for asset divestitures.
– Acquisition to add 1,747 MW of capacity, enhancing TransAlta’s Alberta portfolio.
– Deal expected to yield $85-$90 million in annual EBITDA and $20 million in annual synergies.

TransAlta Corporation announced an amended acquisition agreement to purchase Heartland Generation from Energy Capital Partners (ECP) at a revised price of $542 million. This agreement, which includes the assumption of $232 million of debt, strengthens TransAlta’s presence in Alberta’s energy market, adding diverse power generation assets critical for the province’s growing needs. The transaction is expected to close by December 4, 2024, and includes the divestiture of Heartland’s Poplar Hill and Rainbow Lake assets, which account for 97 MW of power. These divestitures, required to meet federal Competition Bureau guidelines, prompted an $80 million reduction in the purchase price and will allow TransAlta to focus on core, high-value assets in its portfolio.

Heartland Generation’s assets are strategically valuable to TransAlta. By adding 1,747 MW of capacity, including gas-fired and peaking generation, as well as cogeneration facilities, TransAlta will significantly enhance its energy capabilities. This expanded portfolio is expected to be highly accretive to the company’s cash flow, contributing an estimated $85 to $90 million in annual EBITDA post-synergies and divestitures. Approximately 60% of Heartland’s revenues are under long-term contracts with an average remaining life of 15 years, ensuring steady, reliable income from high-credit, stable clients. According to TransAlta, the acquisition will yield substantial free cash flow and achieve a cash yield backed by low-cost, high-efficiency energy generation, supporting Alberta’s dynamic power needs.

CEO John Kousinioris emphasized the alignment of this acquisition with TransAlta’s growth strategy in Alberta. “The pending acquisition of Heartland will allow TransAlta to incorporate high-demand generation capabilities, enhancing our role in supporting grid reliability. Consistent with our original investment thesis, the Alberta market will increasingly require low-cost, flexible, and fast-responding generation to support grid reliability over the coming years. This transaction supports our competitive position by ensuring we maintain a robust and diversified portfolio,” he noted. The deal allows TransAlta to better meet Alberta’s evolving energy demands and gain an edge in the market by offering reliable power that complements and balances renewable energy sources, particularly as renewables are scaled up across Alberta.

TransAlta will also leverage significant operational and financial synergies by integrating Heartland’s assets. The company expects $20 million in annual synergies through shared corporate and operational costs. With TransAlta’s existing assets, the expanded scale will enable supply chain efficiencies, operational optimizations, and additional synergies that will enhance margins and support long-term growth. Heartland’s portfolio, with critical infrastructure for future hydrogen development, is also well-suited to support sustainable initiatives, aligning with TransAlta’s commitment to advancing clean energy solutions.

The transaction metrics are favorable to TransAlta’s growth outlook, with an estimated $270 per kilowatt valuation for the Heartland assets. The acquisition’s 5.4 times EBITDA multiple positions TransAlta for long-term value creation through low-cost power generation assets that are increasingly valuable in Alberta’s shifting energy landscape. With the strategic advantages of this acquisition, TransAlta’s enhanced portfolio and market reach will play a vital role in securing Alberta’s energy future.

Lucid CEO Defends $1.75 Billion Capital Raise Amid Stock Decline

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Lucid’s CEO calls the $1.75 billion raise a strategic decision to ensure growth and stability.
– Investors reacted negatively, resulting in an 18% stock drop, the worst since 2021.
– Lucid remains focused on long-term investments, including expanding production and launching new models.

Lucid Group’s CEO, Peter Rawlinson, defended the company’s recent decision to raise $1.75 billion through a public offering after the move triggered an 18% stock drop last week. Rawlinson explained that the capital raise was a timely, strategic decision intended to secure Lucid’s ongoing operations and growth, particularly as the company gears up to expand production and develop new electric vehicle (EV) models.

The capital raise, which included the sale of nearly 262.5 million shares of common stock, came just two months after Lucid received a $1.5 billion cash infusion from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). Despite this, the stock market reacted harshly, with analysts questioning the timing and necessity of the move, especially given Lucid’s reported liquidity of over $5 billion at the end of the third quarter.

Rawlinson, speaking to CNBC from the company’s offices in suburban Detroit, addressed the concerns by stating that the raise was anticipated. He noted that it was necessary to avoid issuing a “going concern” disclosure, which is required by Nasdaq-listed companies within 12 months of a potential financial runway issue.

However, Wall Street analysts, including Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, saw the capital raise as premature, noting it was “slightly larger and earlier than expected.” RBC Capital’s Tom Narayan echoed these concerns, pointing out that the raise followed closely after the PIF investment, leading some investors to question why Lucid needed additional funds at a time when its share price was depressed.

Despite the market’s negative reaction, Rawlinson remained steadfast, emphasizing that the capital raise extends Lucid’s financial stability through 2026. This financial security will allow Lucid to proceed with its long-term investment plans, which include expanding its factory in Arizona, building a new facility in Saudi Arabia, launching the new Gravity SUV, and enhancing its next-generation powertrain technology.

The stock dilution that accompanied the raise also caused concern among individual investors. However, Rawlinson noted that the continued backing of the PIF—Lucid’s largest shareholder—should be seen as a positive signal of confidence in the company’s future. PIF’s affiliate, Ayar Third Investment Co., purchased an additional 374.7 million shares of Lucid common stock as part of a pro-rata agreement to maintain its 59% ownership stake.

“If we didn’t go pro rata, it surely would be a signal that the PIF were losing faith in us,” Rawlinson emphasized.

Lucid has reported record deliveries in 2024 for its flagship all-electric sedan, the Air, and expects to produce 9,000 vehicles this year. The company also plans to begin production of the Gravity SUV by the end of 2024. However, despite these milestones, Lucid has faced challenges scaling its sales and financial performance due to high costs, slower-than-anticipated EV demand, and brand awareness issues.

Rawlinson acknowledged the capital-intensive nature of the company’s current operations but stressed that these investments are crucial for long-term growth.

The AI Energy Revolution: Is Nuclear Power the Next Frontier?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Big Tech is driving nuclear energy investments to meet AI data center demands.
– SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) are gaining attention, but are still in the experimental stage.
– Few public investment options exist in nuclear power, though related stocks have surged.

Nuclear power is emerging as a key player in the race to meet the enormous energy demands of AI-generating data centers, as Big Tech giants look for reliable, clean energy sources to fuel their operations. In recent weeks, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have each announced significant investments in nuclear energy, signaling that this technology could be poised for a major comeback in the U.S. energy landscape.

Microsoft’s partnership with Constellation Energy to restart the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear reactor, Google’s collaboration with Kairos Power to harness Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and Amazon’s $500 million investment in SMR developer X-Energy highlight a growing trend. These tech giants are betting on nuclear power as a sustainable solution to the skyrocketing energy needs of AI, cloud computing, and data center operations.

For decades, nuclear energy has contributed about 20% of the U.S. electricity supply. However, the industry has stagnated, facing stringent regulatory requirements and high costs that have made it difficult for new reactors to come online. The recent openings of reactors at the Vogtle plant in Georgia were the first new units in seven years, underlining the slow pace of expansion in this sector.

But as Big Tech’s energy consumption continues to grow, driven by the demands of AI and other data-heavy applications, nuclear power has come back into focus. The goal of SMRs is to create smaller, more flexible reactors that are cost-effective and can be built closer to the grid. These reactors have the potential to power everything from industrial operations to sprawling data centers. However, it’s important to note that these reactors are still in the experimental stage in the U.S. The first fully operational units are not expected to be online until the early 2030s, with Microsoft’s project at Three Mile Island targeting a restart by 2028.

Investors looking to capitalize on the nuclear resurgence have few direct options. Companies like NuScale Power (SMR) and Oklo (OKLO) have seen their stock prices soar as investor interest in nuclear technologies grows, but they remain speculative, given the unproven nature of SMRs. NuScale, for example, has seen its shares rise by over 450% this year alone, while Oklo, backed by OpenAI’s Sam Altman, has gained more than 80% since going public through a SPAC.

This shift toward nuclear also ties into broader trends we’ve covered recently, including the increasing focus on renewable energy solutions to power data centers. For instance, Amazon’s recent investments in small modular reactors through X-Energy are a continuation of its efforts to secure clean energy sources, mirroring its $500 million commitment to clean energy projects we wrote about earlier this week. These investments by tech companies not only signal a growing need for energy but also show a strategic shift toward sustainable, scalable solutions.

Energy companies, particularly those involved in nuclear power, utilities, and uranium production, have been significant beneficiaries of this renewed interest. Stocks of utility companies and uranium producers like Cameco (CCJ) and Uranium Energy (UEC) are near record highs as investors seek exposure to this trend. In fact, as we mentioned in our analysis of Wolfspeed’s $750 million chips grant, the intersection of tech and energy—especially AI—continues to drive investment across multiple sectors.

As AI technology continues to evolve, one thing is clear: the next frontier for tech could be nuclear power. With billions of dollars flowing into this once-stagnant industry, nuclear energy may soon be a critical component of the AI revolution. While there are still significant hurdles to overcome, Big Tech’s commitment to nuclear energy signals a major shift in how the world’s largest companies are planning to power the future.

Amazon to Invest Over $500 Million in Small Modular Nuclear Reactors for Clean Energy

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Amazon Web Services (AWS) partners with Dominion Energy to explore small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) in Virginia, investing over $500 million.
– The SMRs aim to provide essential clean energy to AWS data centers, supporting its expansion into generative AI.
– Amazon joins other tech giants like Google and Microsoft in utilizing nuclear power to meet rising energy demands while pursuing net-zero carbon goals.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) has announced a groundbreaking investment of more than $500 million to develop small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), a move that signifies a robust commitment to clean energy and sustainable operations. The deal, made in partnership with Dominion Energy, will focus on constructing an SMR facility near Dominion’s existing North Anna nuclear power station in Virginia. This strategic investment aligns with Amazon’s broader goals to achieve net-zero carbon emissions while meeting the increasing energy demands of its expanding cloud computing services.

The SMR technology represents an advanced approach to nuclear energy, characterized by its smaller footprint, which allows for construction closer to energy demand centers like data centers. SMRs offer faster construction timelines compared to traditional nuclear reactors, enabling them to come online more quickly. With the surge in demand for data processing driven by generative AI, AWS anticipates significant increases in its power needs. According to Matthew Garman, CEO of AWS, “We see the need for gigawatts of power in the coming years, and there’s not going to be enough wind and solar projects to be able to meet the needs, and so nuclear is a great opportunity.”

Virginia, known as a hub for data centers, hosts nearly half of the nation’s facilities. The growing demand for electricity in the region has put immense pressure on local utilities. Dominion Energy serves approximately 3,500 megawatts from 452 data centers across its service territory, with projections indicating an 85% increase in power demand over the next 15 years. The new SMR facility is expected to provide at least 300 megawatts of power to help alleviate this demand.

Amazon’s investment is part of a larger trend among major tech companies to integrate nuclear power into their energy strategies. Other industry leaders, such as Google and Microsoft, have similarly announced plans to utilize SMR technology to fuel their operations. Google’s recent deal with Kairos Power and Microsoft’s revival of the Three Mile Island site for energy highlight the growing recognition of nuclear energy as a viable solution to meet escalating power needs while adhering to sustainability commitments.

In addition to its partnership with Dominion Energy, AWS is also collaborating with Energy Northwest in Washington state to develop four SMRs, with the option for more. These reactors will directly supply energy to the grid, benefiting both Amazon’s operations and the broader electricity market. The development is crucial for reinforcing the grid’s capacity and reliability, especially as more data centers come online.

The U.S. government has shown strong support for the development of nuclear energy, with Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm announcing $900 million in new funding for projects aimed at deploying more SMRs. This backing underscores the Biden administration’s commitment to transitioning to cleaner energy sources while enhancing energy security.

As the global energy landscape evolves, Amazon’s substantial investment in small modular nuclear reactors positions the company at the forefront of the clean energy movement, setting a precedent for how tech giants can leverage innovative solutions to meet their growing energy demands sustainably. The successful implementation of these SMRs could pave the way for a new era of energy production that not only supports corporate growth but also aligns with the urgent need for a transition to a low-carbon economy.

GM to Invest $625 Million in Joint Venture to Mine EV Battery Materials, Strengthening U.S. Supply Chain

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– GM partners with Lithium Americas to develop a lithium mining project in Nevada, investing $625 million.
– The Thacker Pass project will boost GM’s efforts to secure domestic lithium for EV battery production.
– The deal is a key step in GM’s goal of building a resilient, U.S.-based EV supply chain.

General Motors (GM) is making a significant move to strengthen its electric vehicle (EV) supply chain by partnering with Lithium Americas Corp. in a joint venture. This collaboration involves a substantial $625 million investment in the Thacker Pass lithium carbonate mining project, located in Humboldt County, Nevada. Lithium is a critical component for manufacturing the high-capacity batteries needed to power EVs, making this deal a pivotal step in GM’s goal of building a resilient, U.S.-based supply chain.

With EV demand surging and federal regulations tightening on emissions, GM is focusing on ensuring a steady and reliable supply of lithium, a key raw material for EV batteries. This partnership, which includes $330 million in cash at closing, $100 million upon final project decisions, and a $195 million credit facility, is designed to secure GM’s access to lithium for its growing fleet of electric vehicles. GM will hold a 38% interest in the Thacker Pass project, which is expected to create significant job opportunities and contribute to cost savings in battery production.

“We’re pleased with the significant progress Lithium Americas is making to help GM achieve our goal to develop a resilient EV material supply chain,” said Jeff Morrison, GM’s senior vice president of global purchasing and supply chain. Securing lithium and other essential raw materials domestically is critical for managing battery costs, providing value to customers, and meeting investor expectations.

This joint venture builds on GM’s earlier $320 million investment into Lithium Americas in February 2023, further cementing their relationship. As the Thacker Pass project moves forward, it will play a crucial role in GM’s ambitious plan to scale its EV business and produce electric vehicles more profitably, in line with tightening U.S. environmental regulations.

This development is particularly timely as it comes amid a broader focus on building out the U.S. EV supply chain. Just yesterday, Wolfspeed, a key player in the EV chip industry, secured a $750 million grant from the U.S. government to enhance its silicon carbide wafer manufacturing for EVs. The Wolfspeed funding aims to expand production capacity and contribute to the growth of energy-efficient technologies for the EV market, which aligns with GM’s efforts in securing lithium.

The Wolfspeed project and GM’s lithium venture highlight the importance of fostering a domestic EV supply chain to reduce reliance on foreign resources, ensuring that the U.S. remains competitive in the global EV race. By linking these two developments, the broader picture of the growing U.S. EV infrastructure comes into view, from essential raw materials like lithium to advanced chip technologies, all designed to power the future of transportation.

As GM continues to push its all-electric vision, its investment in Thacker Pass positions the company to meet the increasing demand for EVs, while simultaneously reducing costs and securing a vital component of the battery production process. With both Wolfspeed and GM making significant strides, the U.S. EV industry is poised for substantial growth in the coming years.

Oil Prices Tumble Over 5% as Israel Unlikely to Target Iran’s Oil Industry

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Oil futures dropped over 5% as fears of Israeli attacks on Iran’s oil facilities eased.
– Weak demand in China and OPEC’s downward revision of oil forecasts are adding pressure on crude prices.
– The International Energy Agency (IEA) signals a surplus in global oil supply, further dampening the market.

Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday, dropping more than 5%, as geopolitical concerns surrounding Israel and Iran’s oil industry began to ease. Initially, fears of potential supply disruptions spiked oil prices after Iran launched a missile attack on Israel earlier this month, but the market has now calmed as Israel is not expected to strike Iran’s oil infrastructure.

At the same time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has weighed in, signaling that its member nations are prepared to take action if any supply disruption occurs in the Middle East. For now, however, global oil supply remains steady, and with the absence of major disruptions, the market faces a likely surplus in the new year.

As of Tuesday morning, energy prices were reacting to both the geopolitical environment and broader market dynamics:

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) November futures fell by $3.74, or 5.07%, to $70.08 per barrel. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has seen a 2% decline.
  • Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell by $3.67, or 4.7%, to $73.79 per barrel, continuing its year-to-date drop of about 4%.
  • Gasoline prices also dipped, with the November contract down 4.47% to $2.014 per gallon, bringing year-to-date losses to nearly 4%.
  • Natural gas was the exception, seeing a slight rise of 1.36% to $2.528 per thousand cubic feet.

The significant drop in crude prices reflects more than just geopolitics. The oil market has been facing weakening demand, particularly from China, and ongoing concerns about a global economic slowdown. OPEC’s recent decision to cut its 2024 oil demand forecast for the third consecutive month has further contributed to the pressure on oil prices.

China’s oil consumption has been particularly weak in recent months, with the IEA reporting that Chinese demand dropped by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August. This marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline, adding to the overall bearish sentiment surrounding global oil demand.

The broader outlook for 2024 and 2025 also suggests slower demand growth compared to the post-pandemic recovery. The IEA projects global oil demand to increase by just under 900,000 bpd in 2024 and 1 million bpd in 2025, which is a noticeable drop from the 2 million bpd growth seen in the previous years.

At the same time, crude production in the Americas, particularly the U.S., is on track to grow. According to the IEA, American-led production will increase by 1.5 million bpd this year and next, further contributing to the global supply glut.

For the third consecutive month, OPEC has revised its oil demand forecast downward, reflecting concerns about slower economic growth and subdued consumption in major markets like China. The cuts come as the cartel faces pressure to balance supply with softer global demand.

As a result of these factors, analysts now expect the oil market to shift its focus away from geopolitical fears and towards demand weakness, which could define the market’s trajectory in the months ahead. While geopolitical events may continue to inject short-term volatility, the more significant concern remains the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand.

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Tempering 2024 and 2025 Expectations; Rating Remains an Outperform

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, October 07, 2024

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Lower third quarter commodity prices. During the third quarter, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices declined 18.2% to $68.17 per barrel and averaged $75.35 per barrel. InPlay sells oil at monthly average Edmonton Par prices which are based on the price of WTI crude oil minus quality differentials, transportation, and marketing fees. Crude oil prices have risen since the end of the quarter due to heightened geopolitical risk with WTI crude oil priced at $74.45 per barrel on October 4. WTI and Henry Hub futures prices average $71.16 per barrel and $3.40 per mcf in 2025. We note that natural gas prices in Canada were weak relative to Henry Hub prices during the third quarter.

Outlook for 2025. For 2024, the company forecast average production of 8,700 to 9,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). We are forecasting 2024 production of 8,682 barrels of oil equivalents per day compared to our previous estimate of 8,952 boe/d due to lower third and fourth quarter expectations. We think the company may start off with a conservative 2025 plan that targets production at the upper end of 2024 guidance and have lowered our production expectations to 8,971 from 9,638 barrels of oil equivalents per day.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Brent Crude Extends Gains as Markets Fear Potential Israel Strike on Iran

Posted on by cpatches
Key Points:
– Brent crude oil prices are rising as markets speculate on a potential Israeli strike against Iran’s oil infrastructure, particularly Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran’s crude exports.
– A worst-case scenario would involve disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for 20% of the world’s crude oil exports, which could cause a dramatic spike in oil prices.
– While OPEC+ has enough spare capacity to offset supply disruptions from an Israeli strike, it may struggle if Iran retaliates, adding further uncertainty to the energy markets.

Brent crude oil extended its gains today, driven by rising fears that Israel could launch a retaliatory strike on Iran’s oil infrastructure following Tehran’s recent ballistic missile attack. Markets are increasingly concerned that such an attack could disrupt the flow of oil from one of the world’s most critical regions for crude exports.

Concerns Over Key Oil Choke Points

Israel’s retaliation, though not yet clearly defined, has analysts worried about the potential impact on Iran’s oil exports, especially if Israel targets Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass through. A strike there would have significant consequences on global oil supply, sending prices higher. However, the worst-case scenario would involve a strike on the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s crude oil flows, which would cause a dramatic spike in crude prices.

U.S. President Joe Biden has urged Israel to avoid targeting Iranian oil facilities, following his previous opposition to a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

Oil Prices Surge on Market Speculation

Brent crude prices surged last week, marking the steepest increase since early 2023. Activity in the options market has also shown increased demand for hedging against the risk of further gains, reflecting market fears of a supply disruption. Despite these gains, Brent crude is still trading below last year’s price of $88 per barrel, when the current conflict in the Middle East began.

OPEC+ Supply and Market Outlook

As OPEC+ prepares to raise production in December following years of output cuts, analysts believe the group has enough spare capacity to offset any supply disruptions caused by an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities. However, concerns linger that OPEC+ could face challenges if Iran retaliates, potentially leading to further volatility in oil markets.

While some analysts see an attack on Iranian oil infrastructure as a less likely response from Israel, the broader geopolitical tensions and risks of wider conflict are adding uncertainty to the energy markets.

Oil Surges as US Warns of Potential Iran Attack on Israel, Stoking Fears of Supply Disruption

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Oil prices jump 4% as Iran reportedly prepares to strike Israel within hours.
– Middle East tensions raise concerns about global oil supply, pushing prices higher.
– Investors brace for volatility amid potential disruptions in one of the world’s largest oil-producing regions.

Oil prices surged on Tuesday following warnings from the US that Iran is preparing to launch an attack on Israel within the next 12 hours. This development has significantly heightened concerns over possible disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, a region that produces a third of the world’s crude oil.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw an immediate increase of nearly 4%, reaching close to $71 a barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed above $74. The potential conflict in this geopolitically critical area may lead to further price hikes if tensions escalate and oil output is impacted. Iran, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), was the ninth-largest oil producer in 2023, pumping over 3.3 million barrels a day as recently as August.

“The key factor for crude will be whether Israeli defense systems are able to shield against the attack and what subsequent actions Israel might take,” said Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “In the near term, we could see a few more dollars of short covering in crude.”

This possible disruption marks the most significant threat to oil markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an event that sent global markets into turmoil last year. Surging oil prices are likely to become a significant concern for consumers and governments, especially in countries like the US where gasoline prices are a political flashpoint. Both major presidential candidates are expected to focus on preventing a further spike in gas prices, with the cost of oil playing a central role in domestic economic debates.

The geopolitical threat comes at a time when oil traders had been betting heavily on bearish market trends, largely driven by concerns of weakening demand growth. The elevated short positions have left the market vulnerable to sharp upward movements if these bearish bets need to be unwound quickly in response to rising tensions in the Middle East.

Concerns about the Middle East have been escalating following the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last week. In retaliation, Israel has launched airstrikes on Beirut and initiated “targeted ground raids.” As the region braces for further conflict, investors are anticipating potential volatility in the oil market, with Brent crude volatility indices reaching their highest levels since January.

Previously, oil prices had dropped in recent months amid expectations that OPEC+ would increase production just as non-OPEC nations, including the US, ramped up their output. Additionally, China’s weakening demand, as the world’s largest crude importer, has added downward pressure on prices. However, this latest geopolitical flare-up could reverse these trends, injecting fresh instability into global energy markets.

As investors brace for further developments, the oil market remains on edge, with any direct involvement from Iran likely to further disrupt global supplies and drive prices higher.

Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) – Hemisphere Provides an Operational Update and Declares a Special Dividend

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, September 26, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Operational update. Hemisphere has drilled six horizontal wells into its southeast Alberta Atlee Buffalo F and G pools over the past two months, with two wells left to drill as part of its summer program. Drilling operations are expected to be completed early in the fourth quarter with wells put into production as they are tied-in through the remainder of the year. Hemisphere has also commenced polymer injection at its new pilot enhanced oil recovery project in Marsden, Saskatchewan. Management anticipates that it could take until mid-2025 to increase reservoir pressure and to evaluate the production response at the three producers.

Updating estimates. Crude oil prices have weakened since our last update. We have lowered our 2024 adjusted funds flow (AFF) and earnings per share (EPS) estimates to C$43.8 million and C$0.31, respectively, from C$45.4 million and C$0.35. Our third and fourth quarter EPS estimates were lowered by C$0.02 each to C$0.08 and C$0.06, respectively, based on average per barrel WTI crude oil prices of $75.69 and $71.20. While futures prices suggest 2025 WTI pricing in the $68 to $70 per barrel range, we are leaving our 2025 estimates unchanged for now based on a WTI crude oil price of $74.95 per barrel.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gevo Acquires CultivateAI to Strengthen Verity’s Carbon Accounting Solutions

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Gevo acquires CultivateAI for $6 million to boost Verity’s carbon tracking capabilities.
– The acquisition will accelerate revenue growth and provide advanced agricultural analytics.
– CultivateAI’s SaaS platform integrates real-time agricultural data, driving sustainability and profitability for farmers.

Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEVO), a renewable energy and carbon solutions company, has announced the acquisition of Cultivate Agricultural Intelligence, LLC (“CultivateAI”) for $6 million in cash. This strategic acquisition will bolster Gevo’s Verity business unit, accelerating the development of Verity’s carbon tracking capabilities, while integrating new revenue streams from CultivateAI’s agricultural data and analytics platform.

CultivateAI, a cloud-based software as a service (SaaS) platform, provides agricultural operators with real-time analytics, helping them make data-driven decisions to improve productivity, sustainability, and profitability. With expected 2024 revenue of $1.7 million and positive cash flow, CultivateAI is already a proven business. Gevo aims to leverage this platform to strengthen Verity’s carbon accounting and tracking solutions, focusing on carbon abatement across sectors like food, feed, fuels, and industrial markets.

Dr. Paul Bloom, Head of Verity and Chief Carbon Officer of Gevo, expressed excitement about the acquisition: “Adding CultivateAI and its inventive approach to Verity will help us grow revenue by providing the most complete set of data-driven analytics services to farmers, agronomists, and researchers. This acquisition accelerates our ability to deliver value to our customers.”

Verity’s primary focus is creating an innovative platform that tracks, verifies, and empirically values carbon intensity throughout the entire carbon lifecycle. With the addition of CultivateAI’s tools and customer base, Verity will extend its reach beyond biofuels and tap into new revenue streams. This integration is poised to strengthen Gevo’s role in promoting sustainability and profitability, particularly for farmers and agricultural service providers.

Gevo’s CEO, Dr. Pat Gruber, emphasized the broader implications of the acquisition: “We are constantly looking for development opportunities that bring new revenue streams to the company. As Verity accelerates, we expect to see more customer relationships and growth opportunities, supporting our mission to build a circular economy.”

CultivateAI’s advanced platform, with its real-time data capabilities, will allow Verity to offer the highest quality carbon abatement solutions while helping clients understand their operations better. The SaaS platform enables farm operators, agronomists, and researchers to access timely, reliable insights, enhancing their ability to manage resources efficiently and sustainably.

Gevo is committed to converting renewable energy and biogenic carbon into sustainable fuels and chemicals with a net-zero or better carbon footprint. With this acquisition, the company takes another step toward its mission of fostering a sustainable, circular economy while driving shareholder value through scalable revenue growth.

As Verity continues to expand its platform, the integration of CultivateAI will not only help improve agricultural operations but will also support the carbon footprint reduction efforts in various industries. By offering clients innovative, data-driven solutions, Gevo aims to lead the way in sustainability-focused business practices.

Release – Hemisphere Energy Declares Special Dividend and Provides Operations Update

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on HMENF

Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – September 24, 2024) – Hemisphere Energy Corporation (TSXV: HME) (OTCQX: HMENF) (“Hemisphere” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved the declaration of a special dividend to shareholders and provide an update from field operations.

Special Dividend

Given the strong financial position and performance outlook of the Company, Hemisphere is pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved the declaration of a special dividend of C$0.03 per common share, in accordance with its dividend policy. The special dividend will be paid on October 25, 2024 to shareholders of record on October 11, 2024, and is designated as an eligible dividend for Canadian income tax purposes. It is in addition to the Company’s quarterly base dividend of C$0.025 per common share.

Hemisphere has committed $17.4 million to shareholder returns to date in 2024, including quarterly base dividend payments in February, June, and September, special dividend payments in July and October, and shares repurchased and cancelled under the Company’s normal course issuer bid. This return of capital is funded entirely by the Company’s free cash flow, and is made possible by its high netback, ultra-low decline enhanced oil recovery (“EOR”) assets.

Operations Update

The Company has drilled six successful horizontal wells into its southeast Alberta Atlee Buffalo F and G pools over the past two months, with two remaining wells to drill as part of its summer development program. Drilling operations are expected to be finished early in the fourth quarter, and wells brought on production as they are tied-in through the remainder of the year.

Hemisphere has also commenced polymer injection at its new pilot EOR project in Marsden, Saskatchewan. Management anticipates that it could take until mid-2025 to increase reservoir pressure and evaluate production response at the three producers.

About Hemisphere Energy Corporation

Hemisphere is a dividend-paying Canadian oil company focused on maximizing value per share growth with the sustainable development of its high netback, ultra-low decline conventional heavy oil assets through polymer flood EOR methods. Hemisphere trades on the TSX Venture Exchange as a Tier 1 issuer under the symbol “HME” and on the OTCQX Venture Marketplace under the symbol “HMENF”.

For further information, please visit the Company’s website at www.hemisphereenergy.ca to view its corporate presentation or contact:

Don Simmons, President & Chief Executive Officer
Telephone: (604) 685-9255
Email: info@hemisphereenergy.ca

Website: www.hemisphereenergy.ca

Forward-looking Statements

Certain statements included in this news release constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “expect”, “forecast”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “could”, “plan”, “intend”, “should”, “believe”, “outlook”, “potential”, “target” and similar words suggesting future events or future performance. In particular, but without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this news release includes forward-looking statements including that a special dividend will be paid to shareholders on October 25, 2024 to shareholders of record on October 11, 2024; plans for drilling two remaining wells in its southeast Alberta Atlee Buffalo F and G pools with drilling operations expected to be finished early in the fourth quarter with wells brought on production as they are tied-in through the remainder of the year; and management’s expectation that it could take until mid-2025 to increase reservoir pressure and evaluate production response at three producers at its new pilot EOR project in Marsden, Saskatchewan.

Forward‐looking statements are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of Hemisphere which have been used to develop such statements and information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Hemisphere believes that the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward‐looking statements because Hemisphere can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the timing for payment of the special dividend; no delays in the anticipated timing for delivery of the polymer skid and EOR project; the general continuance of current industry conditions; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which Hemisphere has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain financing on acceptable terms; field production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and expansion and the ability of Hemisphere to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which Hemisphere operates; and the ability of Hemisphere to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.

The forward‐looking statements included in this news release are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forward‐looking statements including, without limitation: changes in project timelines and workstreams; changes in commodity prices; changes in the demand for or supply of Hemisphere’s products, the early stage of development of some of the evaluated areas and zones; unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans of Hemisphere or by third party operators of Hemisphere’s properties, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of Hemisphere’s oil and gas reserve volumes; limited, unfavourable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time‐to‐time in Hemisphere’s public disclosure documents, (including, without limitation, those risks identified in this news release and in Hemisphere’s Annual Information Form).

The forward‐looking statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date of this news release, and Hemisphere does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.