Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Reserve report. Hemisphere released results from its independent reserve evaluation as of December 31, 2024. Compared to the year-end 2023 reserve report, proved developed producing (PDP) reserves increased 13.1% to 9,302.2 thousand barrels of oil equivalents. The growth in PDP reserves replaced 186% of 2024 production. Hemisphere’s estimated 2024 capital expenditures of ~C$22 million funded PDP reserve growth, annual production growth of ~10%, additional infrastructure, and the testing of a new resource play in Saskatchewan with an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) polymer pilot project.
Outlook for 2025.Hemisphere expects 2025 capital expenditures of ~C$17 million which are expected to support ~15% growth in annual average production to 3,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 2024. Most of the capital will be allocated to drilling, optimization, and facility work, with ~10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition. The majority of the planned expenditures are scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, providing the company with the flexibility to adjust plans based on changes in commodity prices.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Full-year 2024 financial results. InPlay Oil reported full-year net income and earnings per share of C$9.5 million and C$0.10, respectively, below our estimates of approximately C$11.4 million and C$0.12. The variance was primarily due to lower-than-expected natural gas revenue driven by weaker AECO pricing. Production for the year averaged 8,712 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 9,025 boe/d in 2023. Consequently, revenue decreased to C$153.7 million compared to C$179.4 million in 2023. Adjusted funds flow in 2024 was C$68.5 million, down from C$91.8 million in 2023.
Updated 2025 estimates. Please note that our revised estimates assume the closing of the pending Pembina acquisition on April 15th, 2025. For 2025, our oil and gas revenue estimate is C$333.5 million compared to our prior estimate of C$159.4 million. We have raised our 2025 AFF and EPS estimates to C$161.6 million and C$0.27, respectively, from C$71.7 million and C$0.14. We forecast net income of C$40.9 million, up from our previous estimate of C$13.2 million. Our 2025 estimates are based on an average annual production of 15,879 boe/d compared to our prior forecast of 8,901 boe/d.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
CALGARY, AB, March 14, 2025 /CNW/ – InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) (“InPlay” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce its financial and operating results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2024, along with the results of its independent oil and gas reserves evaluation effective December 31, 2024 (the “Reserve Report”) prepared by Sproule Associates Limited (“Sproule”). InPlay’s audited annual financial statements and notes, and Management’s Discussion and Analysis (“MD&A”) for the year ended December 31, 2024 will be available at “www.sedarplus.ca” and the Company’s website at “www.inplayoil.com“. An updated presentation will be available after closing of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition which is expected in April.
Message to Shareholders:
The upcoming year is set to be a transformational year for InPlay. We believe that the highly accretive acquisition of Pembina Cardium assets from Obsidian Energy Ltd. announced on February 19, 2025 will fundamentally shift the future of the Company. The acquired assets strategically complement InPlay’s existing holdings in the Pembina Cardium, an area where the Company has proven operational expertise. The acquisition will significantly expand our operational scale, with attributes including large oil in place, a higher oil weighting, strong netbacks, low decline rates and a robust inventory of high-quality drilling locations, enhancing our overall sustainability. This is expected to strengthen free adjusted funds flow (“FAFF”)(4) generation, allowing for debt reduction while supporting our shareholder return strategy, with over three times FAFF coverage of our existing base dividend (11.3%) expected for 2025. We are excited to begin operations of these newly acquired assets acquired in this synergistic acquisition and to demonstrate our expertise and ability to unlock the intrinsic value of our share price. We will remain committed to financial discipline maintaining our strong balance sheet, to ultimately generate shareholder value through FAFF growth and return of capital to shareholders.
The resumption of development of our Pembina Cardium Unit # (“PCU7”) asset was a key highlight in 2024. This area is our most prolific asset as it offers high production rates and lower declines. As a result of significantly improved capital costs, PCU7 yields the highest returns and strongest capital efficiencies in our current asset portfolio. Our 2024 development of PCU7 exceeded internal expectations. Operational enhancements since our last PCU7 drilling program in spring of 2022 resulted in costs 25% below budget. These new techniques can be leveraged across our Cardium asset base, including those acquired as part of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition. Three additional 100% PCU7 extended reach horizontal (“ERH”) wells were drilled in the first quarter of 2025 and recently brought on production.
During 2024, InPlay remained focused on operational execution, disciplined capital allocation and prioritizing FAFF while preserving a strong balance sheet which resulted in adjusting our operational and capital activities accordingly. InPlay’s disciplined approach allowed the Company to capitalize on the transformational Pembina Cardium asset acquisition.
Following closing of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition, InPlay will provide updated development plans and revised full-year 2025 guidance. The acquisition is currently expected to close in April 2025.
2024 was a year of disciplined execution, operational efficiency, and delivering shareholder returns. We remain focused on financial strength, sustainable production, and value creation for our shareholders. As we move into 2025, we believe the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition positions InPlay for significant growth and long-term success. On behalf of our employees, management team and Board of Directors, we would like to thank our shareholders for their support.
2024 Financial and Operating Results:
Achieved average annual production of 8,712 boe/d(1) (58% light crude oil and NGLs) with fourth quarter production average of 9,376 boe/d(1) (57% light crude oil and NGLs).
Generated adjusted funds flow (“AFF”)(2) of $68.5 million ($0.76 per basic share(3)) despite a 44% drop in AECO natural gas prices compared to 2023.
Distributed $16.4 million in dividends, equating to a 10.4% yield relative to year-end market capitalization. Since November 2022, total dividends distributed amounted to $39.2 million ($0.435 per share, including dividends declared to date in 2025).
Invested $63 million in development capital which was $2.5 million below the mid-range of our $64 – $67 million budget and 25% less than 2023. The majority of capital was spent on our drilling program, consisting of 12 (11.9) operated horizontal wells and three (0.65 net) non-operated horizontal wells, including strategic infrastructure projects, and an extensive downhole optimization program. $5.4 million was spent on the optimization program to replace plunger lifts with downhole pumps and lowering pumps in horizontal wells, helping to decrease our base decline rate to 26%.
Materially enhanced capital efficiencies through a 25% reduction in drilling and completion costs experienced in PCU7 as a result of operational enhancements on our four H2 2024 wells drilled in the area.
Exited 2024 at 0.8x net debt to earnings before interest, taxes and depletion (“EBITDA”)(4) which is among the lowest among industry peers.
Generated a strong operating income profit margin(4) of 54% and net income of $9.5 million ($0.11 per basic share, $0.10 per diluted share).
Renewed our $110 million revolving Senior Credit Facility, providing significant liquidity for tactical capital investment and strategic acquisitions.
Allocated $3.4 million to the successful abandonment of 40 wellbores, 37 pipelines and the reclamation of 25 wellsites.
2024 Financial & Operations Overview:
Our 2024 results reflect our disciplined capital allocation approach to maintain financial strength while delivering strong returns to shareholders. We executed our capital program under budget, generated meaningful adjusted funds flow and returned $16.4 million to shareholders. Production averaged 9,376 boe/d(1) (57% light crude oil & NGLs) in the fourth quarter of 2024.
InPlay’s capital program for 2024 consisted of $63.1 million of exploration and development capital. Efficient operational execution in 2024 led to capital expenditures coming in $2.5 million below the mid-point of our $64 – $67 million budget and approximately 25% less than 2023. The Company drilled, completed and brought on production two (1.9 net) ERH wells in Willesden Green, two (2.0 net) one-mile horizontal wells in Willesden Green, three (3.0 net) ERH wells in Pembina, four (4.0 net) PCU7 ERH wells, one (1.0 net) Belly River well, and three (0.65 net) non-operated Willesden Green ERH wells during 2024. This activity amounted to the drilling of 15 (12.6 net) wells. Additionally, the Company incurred drilling costs on one (1.0 net) Glauconite well where drilling challenges resulted in casing failure and led to the termination of drilling operations. In addition, $5.4 million was spent on the optimization of wells during 2024 to change plunger lifts to downhole pumps and lowering pumps in horizontal wells which has led to improved base decline rates. Going forward, InPlay’s improved decline rate results in reduced drilling capital required to maintain production and further enhancing our ability to generate FAFF.
Natural gas prices remained low in 2024 due to production growth in North America with higher than normal inventory levels in North America and Europe. This resulted in a 44% decrease in AECO pricing compared to already low prices in 2023. These lower prices resulted in a 11% decline in our realized boe sales price, which was partially offset by realized hedging gains.
Financial and Operating Results:
Operations Update:
InPlay’s capital program for 2025 is underway with three (3.0 net) ERH wells drilled in PCU7 recently coming on production and are in the early cleanup stage. These wells will offset the three well pad drilled in 2024 which has exceeded internal expectations. Despite the extreme cold temperatures in February, the costs for our first three wells of 2025 came in on time and on budget. Building on the success of our 2024 PCU7 development, we are excited to continue the focused development of this highly prolific area with an additional three net wells planned for the second half of 2025 included in our pre-acquisition 2025 budget. The majority of our remaining 2025 pre-acquisition capital program was scheduled for the second half of the year with minimal spending planned in the second quarter resulting in strong forecasted FAFF.
On March 4, 2025 the government of the United Stated announced tariffs on goods imported from Canada, including a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports. The situation continues to be fluid and we believe the volatility surrounding these tariffs is already impacting valuations in the energy industry. We continue to monitor the impact of these tariffs on the Company and will make decisions keeping our strategy of disciplined capital allocation, financial flexibility and returns to shareholders at the forefront. InPlay’s financial hedges and a resulting weaker Canadian dollar are expected to mitigate the impact of these tariffs on the Company.
Hedging Update
The Company has reacted to commodity price volatility by securing commodity hedges extending through 2025 and into 2026. InPlay has hedged over 60% of pre-acquisition natural gas production and approximately 55% of pre-acquisition light crude oil production during 2025 at favorable pricing levels. Refer below for a summary of the Company’s commodity-based hedges.
2024 Reserves Results(1):
An organic 2024 capital program without acquisition/disposition (“A&D”) activity resulted in:
Proved developed producing (“PDP”) reserves of 17,207 mboe (54% light and medium crude oil & NGLs)
Total proved (“TP”) reserves of 43,912 mboe (60% light and medium crude oil & NGLs)
Total proved plus probable (“TPP”) reserves of 58,724 mboe (61% light and medium crude oil & NGLs)
Reserves life index (“RLI”)(2) for PDP, TP and TPP of approximately 5.4 years, 13.8 years and 18.5 years, respectively highlights a sizable drilling inventory for long-term development potential.
Achieved NPV BT10 reserve values(1) of:
PDP: $222 million
TP: $485 million
TPP: $706 million
Corporate Reserves Information:
The following summarizes certain information contained in the Reserve Report. The Reserve Report was prepared in accordance with the definitions, standards and procedures contained in the COGE Handbook and National Instrument 51-101 Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“NI 51-101”). Additional reserve information as required under NI 51-101 will be included in the Company’s Annual Information Form (“AIF”) which will be filed on SEDAR+ by the end of March 2025.
Net Present Values of Reserves:
InPlay achieved strong before tax estimated net present values (“NPV”) of future net revenues associated with our 2024 year-end reserves discounted at 10% (“NPV BT10”), although impacted by weaker future commodity prices in comparison to December 31, 2023. Forecasted WTI and AECO prices used in the Reserve Report decreased by 5% and 30% in year one and 2% and 18% in year two, respectively, compared to 2023. The Company achieved NPV BT10 reserve values of $222 million (PDP), $485 million (TP) and $706 million (TPP) based on the three independent reserve evaluator average pricing, cost forecast and foreign exchange rates as at December 31, 2024 used in the Reserve Report.
Future Development Costs (“FDCs”):
The following FDCs are included in the 2024 Reserve Report:
The $485 million of total FDC in the Reserve Report generates approximately $484 million in future net present value discounted at 10%.
Pricing Assumptions:
The following tables set forth the benchmark reference prices, as at December 31, 2024, reflected in the Reserve Report. These price and cost assumptions were an arithmetic average of the price forecasts of three independent reserve evaluator’s (Sproule, McDaniel & Associates Consultants Ltd. and GLJ Ltd.) then current forecast and Sproule’s foreign exchange rate forecast at the effective date of the Reserve Report.
Forecasted WTI and AECO prices used in the Reserve Report decreased by 5% and 30% in year one and 2% and 18% in year two respectively compared to 2023.
InPlay also confirms that the management information circular (the “Circular”) and form of proxy with respect to the proposed Pembina Cardium asset acquisition and related matters have been mailed to the InPlay shareholders of record as of February 28, 2025. InPlay confirms that the Circular and form of proxy can be accessed and viewed on the Company’s website (www.inplayoil.com) or on the Company’s profile on SEDAR+ (www.sedarplus.ca).
For further information please contact:
Doug Bartole President and Chief Executive Officer InPlay Oil Corp. Telephone: (587) 955-0632
Throughout this document and other materials disclosed by the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to, or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance. Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and other financial measures provides useful information to shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the Company’s ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay’s business performance against prior periods on a comparable basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the terms “free adjusted funds flow”, “operating income”, “operating netback per boe”, “operating income profit margin” and “Net Debt to EBITDA”. Management believes these measures and ratios are helpful supplementary measures of financial and operating performance and provide users with similar, but potentially not comparable, information that is commonly used by other oil and natural gas companies. These terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than “profit before taxes”, “profit and comprehensive income”, “adjusted funds flow”, “capital expenditures”, “net debt” or assets and liabilities as determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of the Company’s performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow/FAFF per share
Management considers FAFF and FAFF per share important measures to identify the Company’s ability to improve its financial condition through debt repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. FAFF should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF less exploration and development capital expenditures and property dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate acquisitions, repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures or potentially return of capital to shareholders. FAFF per share is calculated by the Company as FAFF divided by weighted average shares outstanding. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast FAFF.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow Yield
InPlay uses “free adjusted funds flow yield” as a key performance indicator. When presented on a corporate basis, free adjusted funds flow is calculated by the Company as free adjusted funds flow divided by the market capitalization of the Company. When presented on an asset basis for acquisition purposes, free adjusted funds flow is calculated by the Company as free adjusted funds flow divided by the operating income of the Acquired Assets. Management considers FAFF yield to be an important performance indicator as it demonstrates a Company or asset’s ability to generate cash to pay down debt and provide funds for potential distributions to shareholders. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast FAFF Yield.
Operating Income/Operating Netback per boe/Operating Income Profit Margin
InPlay uses “operating income”, “operating netback per boe” and “operating income profit margin” as key performance indicators. Operating income is calculated by the Company as oil and natural gas sales less royalties, operating expenses and transportation expenses and is a measure of the profitability of operations before administrative, share-based compensation, financing and other non-cash items. Management considers operating income an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability. Operating income should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than net income as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company’s performance. Operating netback per boe is calculated by the Company as operating income divided by average production for the respective period. Management considers operating netback per boe an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates its field level profitability per unit of production. Operating income profit margin is calculated by the Company as operating income as a percentage of oil and natural gas sales. Management considers operating income profit margin an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates how efficiently the Company generates field level profits from its sales revenue. Refer below for a calculation of operating income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit margin. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast operating income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit margin.
(thousands of dollars)
Three Months EndedDecember 31
Year EndedDecember 31
2024
2023
2024
2023
Revenue
40,039
47,631
153,713
179,366
Royalties
(5,253)
(6,339)
(19,964)
(22,516)
Operating expenses
(12,413)
(13,233)
(48,198)
(49,576)
Transportation expenses
(786)
(940)
(3,083)
(3,130)
Operating income
21,587
27,119
82,468
104,144
Sales volume (Mboe)
862.6
882.8
3,188.5
3,294.1
Per boe
Revenue
46.42
53.95
48.21
54.45
Royalties
(6.09)
(7.18)
(6.26)
(6.84)
Operating expenses
(14.39)
(14.99)
(15.12)
(15.05)
Transportation expenses
(0.91)
(1.06)
(0.97)
(0.95)
Operating netback per boe
25.03
30.72
25.86
31.61
Operating income profit margin
54 %
57 %
54 %
58 %
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as it is a key metric to identify the Company’s ability to fund financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations. EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve months preceding the net debt date is used in the calculation. This measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the Company’s Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer to the “Forward Looking Information and Statements” section for a calculation of forecast Net Debt to EBITDA.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an important measure of InPlay’s ability to generate the funds necessary to finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024. All references to adjusted funds flow throughout this document are calculated as funds flow adjusting for decommissioning expenditures. Decommissioning expenditures are adjusted from funds flow as they are incurred on a discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on previous operating assets. The Company also presents adjusted funds flow per share whereby per share amounts are calculated using weighted average shares outstanding consistent with the calculation of profit per common share.
Net Debt
Net debt is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024. The Company closely monitors its capital structure with the goal of maintaining a strong balance sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The Company monitors net debt as part of its capital structure. The Company uses net debt (bank debt plus accounts payable and accrued liabilities less accounts receivables and accrued receivables, prepaid expenses and deposits and inventory) as an alternative measure of outstanding debt. Management considers net debt an important measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the Company.
Free Funds Flow
Management considers free funds flow to be an important measure of InPlay’s ability to generate the funds necessary after capital expenditures and decommissioning expenditures to improve its financial condition through debt repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. Free funds flow is comprised of GAAP measures disclosed in the notes to the Company’s financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024. All references to free funds flow throughout this document are calculated as funds flow less exploration and development capital expenditures and property dispositions (acquisitions).
Supplementary Measures
“Average realized crude oil price” is comprised of crude oil commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s crude oil volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized NGL price” is comprised of NGL commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s NGL volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized natural gas price” is comprised of natural gas commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s natural gas volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Average realized commodity price” is comprised of commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company’s volumes. Average prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains and losses on financial instruments.
“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average basic share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the basic weighted average common shares.
“Adjusted funds flow per weighted average diluted share” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the diluted weighted average common shares.
“Adjusted funds flow per boe” is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by total production.
Forward-Looking Information and Statements
This document contains certain forward–looking information and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The use of any of the words “expect”, “anticipate”, “continue”, “estimate”, “may”, “will”, “project”, “should”, “believe”, “plans”, “intends”, “forecast” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular, but without limiting the foregoing, this document contains forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the following: the Company’s business strategy, milestones and objectives; the Company’s expectation that an updated presentation will be available after closing of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition and the timing of such closing; the Company’s belief that the upcoming year will be transformational for InPlay; the Company’s beliefs and expectations regarding the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition, including that it will fundamentally shift the future of the Company, expand the Company’s operational scale, enhance the Company’s overall sustainability, and strengthen FAFF generation, enabling debt reduction and supporting the Company’s shareholder return strategy; the Company’s belief that the acquired assets will strategically complement InPlay’s existing holdings in the Pembina Cardium; the Company’s expectations regarding its expertise and ability to unlock the intrinsic value of its share price; the Company’s belief that it will remain committed to financial discipline maintaining its strong balance sheet, to ultimately generate shareholder value through FAFF growth and return of capital to shareholders; the Company’s belief that the operational enhancements to the drilling PCU7 program can be leveraged to the Company’s other Cardium assets, including those acquired as part of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition; the Company’s expectation that it following closing of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition, it will provide updated development plans and revised full-year 2025 guidance; expectations regarding the Company’s PCU7 asset; expectations regarding the Company’s 2025 capital program; the Company’s belief that it will monitor the impact of tariffs and will make decisions keeping the Company’s strategy of disciplined capital allocation, financial flexibility and returns to shareholders at the forefront; expectations regarding the Company’s hedges, including that its financial hedges and a resulting weaker Canadian dollar will mitigate the impact of tariffs on the Company; 2025 forecast production; 2025 guidance and 2025 pro-forma estimates related to the proposed Pembina asset acquisition based on the planned capital program and all associated underlying assumptions set forth in this document including, without limitation, forecasts of 2025 annual average production levels, adjusted funds flow, free adjusted funds flow, Net Debt/EBITDA ratio, operating income profit margin, net debt and Management’s belief that the Company can grow some or all of these attributes and specified measures; light crude oil and NGLs weighting estimates; expectations regarding future commodity prices; future oil and natural gas prices; future liquidity and financial capacity; future results from operations and operating metrics; future costs, expenses and royalty rates; future interest costs; the exchange rate between the $US and $Cdn; future development, exploration, acquisition, development and infrastructure activities and related capital expenditures, including InPlay’s planned 2025 capital program; the amount and timing of capital projects; and methods of funding our capital program.
The internal projections, expectations, or beliefs underlying our Board approved 2025 capital budget and associated guidance are subject to change in light of, among other factors, changes to U.S. economic, regulatory and/or trade policies (including tariffs), the impact of world events including the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East, ongoing results, prevailing economic circumstances, volatile commodity prices, and changes in industry conditions and regulations. InPlay’s 2025 financial outlook and revised guidance provides shareholders with relevant information on management’s expectations for results of operations, excluding any potential acquisitions or dispositions, for such time periods based upon the key assumptions outlined herein. Readers are cautioned that events or circumstances could cause capital plans and associated results to differ materially from those predicted and InPlay’s revised guidance for 2025 may not be appropriate for other purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on same.
Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of InPlay which have been used to develop such statements and information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein, assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the current U.S. economic, regulatory and/or trade policies; the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the anticipated tax treatment of the monthly base dividend; that other than the tariffs that came into effect on March 4, 2025 (some of which were subsequently paused on March 6, 2025), neither the U.S. nor Canada (i) increases the rate or scope of such tariffs (if they come into effect in the future), or imposes new tariffs, on the import of goods from one country to the other, including on oil and natural gas, and/or (ii) imposes any other form of tax, restriction or prohibition on the import or export of products from one country to the other, including on oil and natural gas; the potential scope and duration of tariffs, export taxes, export restrictions or other trade actions; magnitude and duration of potential new or increased tariffs may be imposed on goods imported from Canada into the United States, which could adversely impact InPlay’s revenues; the potential for new and increased U.S. tariffs and protectionist trade measures on Canadian oil and gas imports; changes in political and economic conditions, including risks associated with tariffs, export taxes, export restrictions or other trade actions; impacts of any tariffs imposed on Canadian exports into the United States by the Trump administration and any retaliatory steps taken by the Canadian federal government; that InPlay’s results and operations could be adversely affected by economic or geopolitical developments, including protectionist trade policies such as tariffs, or other events; conditions in international markets, including social and political conditions, civil unrest, terrorist activity, governmental changes, restrictions on the ability to transfer capital across borders, tariffs and other protectionist measures; field production rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and the ability of InPlay to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; that various conditions to a shareholder return strategy can be satisfied; the ongoing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are cautioned that the Company’s future dividend payments to shareholders of the Company, if any, and the level thereof will be subject to the discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The Company’s dividend policy and funds available for the payment of dividends, if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among other things, levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial requirements for the Company’s operations and execution of its growth strategy, fluctuations in commodity prices and working capital, the timing and amount of capital expenditures, credit facility availability and limitations on distributions existing thereunder, and other factors beyond the Company’s control. Further, the ability of the Company to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws, including satisfaction of solvency tests under the Business Corporations Act (Alberta), and satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions contained in the agreements governing the Company’s outstanding indebtedness. Further, the actual amount, the declaration date, the record date and the payment date of any dividend are subject to the discretion of the InPlay Board of Directors. There can be no assurance that InPlay will pay dividends in the future.
The forward-looking information and statements included herein are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forward-looking information or statements including, without limitation: changes in industry regulations and legislation (including, but not limited to, tax laws, royalties, and environmental regulations); the risk that the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition may not be completed on the anticipated terms or timing; risks related to an international trade war, including the risk that the U.S. government imposes additional tariffs on Canadian goods, including crude oil and natural gas, and that such tariffs (and/or the Canadian government’s response to such tariffs) adversely affect the demand and/or market price for InPlay’s products and/or otherwise adversely affects InPlay, or lead to the termination of InPlay’s financing arrangements for the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition, including specifically that the imposition of tariffs or similar measures in excess of 10% would be an adverse tariff event for the purposes of InPlay’s new credit facilities to be entered into in connection with the transaction and that the lenders thereunder may choose not to fund the transaction; the continuing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; potential changes to U.S. economic, regulatory and/or trade policies as a result of a change in government; inflation and the risk of a global recession; changes in our planned 2025 capital program; changes in our approach to shareholder returns; changes in commodity prices and other assumptions outlined herein; the risk that dividend payments may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the potential for variation in the quality of the reservoirs in which InPlay operates; changes in the demand for or supply of InPlay’s products; unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans or strategies of InPlay or by third party operators of InPlay’s properties; changes in InPlay’s credit structure, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of InPlay’s light crude oil and natural gas reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time-to-time in InPlay’s continuous disclosure documents filed on SEDAR+ including InPlay’s Annual Information Form dated March 27, 2024 and the annual management’s discussion & analysis for the year ended December 31, 2024.
This document contains future-oriented financial information and financial outlook information (collectively, “FOFI”) about InPlay’s financial and leverage targets and objectives, potential dividends, and beliefs underlying our Board approved 2025 capital budget and associated guidance, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs. The actual results of operations of InPlay and the resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set forth in this document and such variation may be material. InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management’s reasonable estimates and judgments. However, because this information is subjective and subject to numerous risks, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. Except as required by applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes no obligation to update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this document was made as of the date of this document and was provided for the purpose of providing further information about InPlay’s anticipated future business operations and strategy. Readers are cautioned that the FOFI contained in this document should not be used for purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this document speak only as of the date hereof and InPlay does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
InPlay’s 2024 annual guidance and a comparison to 2024 actual results are outlined below.
GuidanceFY 2024(1)
ActualsFY 2024
Variance
Variance (%)
Production
Boe/d
8,700 – 8,750
8,712
–
–
Adjusted Funds Flow
$ millions
$68 – $70
$68.5
–
–
Capital Expenditures
$ millions
$63
$63
–
–
Free Adjusted Funds Flow
$ millions
$5 – $7
$5.5
–
–
Net Debt
$ millions
$59 – $61
$61
–
–
(1) As previously released February 4, 2025.
Risk Factors to FLI
Risk factors that could materially impact successful execution and actual results of the Company’s 2025 capital program and associated guidance and estimates include:
risks related to an international trade war, including the risk that the U.S. government imposes additional tariffs on Canadian goods, including crude oil and natural gas, and that such tariffs (and/or the Canadian government’s response to such tariffs) adversely affect the demand and/or market price for the Company’s products and/or otherwise adversely affects the Company;
volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
the extent of any unfavourable impacts of wildfires in the province of Alberta.
changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
the Company’s ability to secure financing for the Board approved 2025 capital program and longer-term capital plans sourced from AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity issuance, infrastructure financing or some combination thereof; and
those additional risk factors set forth in the Company’s MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on SEDAR+.
Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to FLI
The key budget and underlying material assumptions used by the Company in the development of its 2025 guidance and 2025 pro-forma estimates(3) relating to the proposed acquisition of Pembina Cardium assets from Obsidian Energy Ltd. are as follows:
ActualsFY 2024
GuidanceFY 2024(1)
GuidanceFY 2025(1)
Pro-formaEstimateFY 2025(2)(3)(4)
WTI
US$/bbl
$75.72
$75.72
$72.00
$72.65
NGL Price
$/boe
$32.99
$32.90
35.40
48.65
AECO
$/GJ
$1.39
$1.39
$1.90
$1.85
Foreign Exchange Rate
CDN$/US$
0.73
0.73
0.70
0.70
MSW Differential
US$/bbl
$4.51
$4.50
$4.50
$4.75
Production
Boe/d
8,712
8,700 – 8,750
8,650 – 9,150
18,750
Revenue
$/boe
48.21
47.75 – 48.75
46.00 – 51.00
56.50 – 61.50
Royalties
$/boe
6.26
6.00 – 6.50
5.50 – 7.00
7.00 – 8.50
Operating Expenses
$/boe
15.12
14.50 – 15.50
13.00 – 15.00
16.00 – 18.00
Transportation
$/boe
0.97
0.90 – 1.05
0.90 – 1.15
0.90 – 1.15
Interest
$/boe
2.19
2.00 – 2.25
1.30 – 1.90
2.20 – 2.80
General and Administrative
$/boe
3.06
2.90 – 3.20
3.00 – 3.75
1.50 – 2.25
Hedging loss (gain)
$/boe
(0.86)
(0.75 – (1.00)
0.00 – 0.25
0.00 – 0.50
Decommissioning Expenditures
$ millions
$3.4
$3.2 – $3.4
$3.0 – $3.5
$6.0
Adjusted Funds Flow
$ millions
$68.5
$68 – $70
$69 – $75
$204
Dividends
$ millions
$16
$16
$16.5
$26
ActualsFY 2024
GuidanceFY 2024(1)
GuidanceFY 2025(1)
Pro-formaEstimateFY 2025(2)(3)(4)
Adjusted Funds Flow
$ millions
$68.5
$68 – $70
$69 – $75
$204
Capital Expenditures
$ millions
$63
$63
$41 – $44
$94
Free Adjusted Funds Flow
$ millions
$5.5
$5 – $7
$25 – $34
$104
Shares outstanding, end of year
# millions
90.1
90.1
90.4
158
Assumed share price
$/share
$1.73
$1.73
$1.65
1.55
Market capitalization
$ millions
$156
$156
$150
245
FAFF Yield
%
4 %
3% – 4%
17% – 23%
42 %
ActualsFY 2024
GuidanceFY 2024(1)
GuidanceFY 2025(1)
Pro-formaEstimateFY 2025(2)(3)(4)
Revenue
$/boe
48.21
47.75 – 48.75
46.00 – 51.00
56.50 – 61.50
Royalties
$/boe
6.26
6.00 – 6.50
5.50 – 7.00
7.00 – 8.50
Operating Expenses
$/boe
15.12
14.50 – 15.50
13.00 – 15.00
16.00 – 18.00
Transportation
$/boe
0.97
0.90 – 1.05
0.90 – 1.15
0.90 – 1.15
Operating Netback
$/boe
25.86
25.50 – 26.50
24.75 – 29.75
31.50 – 36.50
Operating Income Profit Margin
54 %
54 %
56 %
58 %
ActualsFY 2024
GuidanceFY 2024(1)
GuidanceFY 2025(1)
Pro-formaEstimateFY 2025(2)(3)(4)
Adjusted Funds Flow
$ millions
$68.5
$68 – $70
$69 – $75
$204
Interest
$/boe
2.19
2.00 – 2.25
1.30 – 1.90
2.20 – 2.80
EBITDA
$ millions
$76
$75 – $77
$74 – $80
$221
Net Debt
$ millions
$61
$59 – $61
$52 – $58
$203
Net Debt/EBITDA
0.8
0.8
0.6 – 0.8
0.9
(1)
As previously released February 4, 2025.
(2)
As previously released February 19, 2025.
(3)
InPlay’s pro-forma estimate for 2025 are preliminary in nature and do not reflect a Board approved capital expenditure budget. Following closing of the Pembina Cardium asset acquisition, InPlay will provide updated development plans and revised full-year 2025 guidance.
(4)
2025E pro forma estimates have been presented as though InPlay acquired the Acquired Assets at January 1, 2025 notwithstanding that income from January 1, 2025 to closing represents a purchase price adjustment and such production will not be directly attributed to InPlay.
See “Production Breakdown by Product Type” below
Quality and pipeline transmission adjustments may impact realized oil prices in addition to the MSW Differential provided above
Changes in working capital are not assumed to have a material impact between the years presented above.
Information Regarding Disclosure on Oil and Gas Reserves and Operational Information
Our oil and gas reserves statement for the year ended December 31, 2024, which will include complete disclosure of our oil and gas reserves and other oil and gas information in accordance with NI 51-101, will be contained within our Annual Information Form which will be available on our SEDAR profile at www.sedarplus.ca on or before March 31, 2025. The recovery and reserve estimates contained herein are estimates only and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be recovered. In relation to the disclosure of estimates for individual properties, such estimates may not reflect the same confidence level as estimates of reserves and future net revenue for all properties, due to the effects of aggregation. The Company’s belief that it will establish additional reserves over time with conversion of probable undeveloped reserves into proved reserves is a forward-looking statement and is based on certain assumptions and is subject to certain risks, as discussed above under the heading “Forward-Looking Information and Statements”.
This press release contains metrics commonly used in the oil and natural gas industry, such as “operating netbacks” and “reserve life index” or “RLI”. Each of these terms are calculated by InPlay as described within this press release. These terms do not have standardized meanings or standardized methods of calculation and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies, and therefore should not be used to make such comparisons. Such metrics have been included herein to provide readers with additional information to evaluate the Company’s performance, however such metrics should not be unduly relied upon.
Management uses these oil and gas metrics for its own performance measurements and to provide shareholders with measures to compare InPlay’s operations over time, however such measures are not reliable indicators of InPlay’s future performance and future performance may not be comparable to the performance in prior periods. Readers are cautioned that the information provided by these metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics presented in this press release, should not be relied upon for investment or other purposes, however such measures are not reliable indicators on InPlay’s future performance and future performance may not be comparable to the performance in prior periods.
References to light crude oil, NGLs or natural gas production in this press release refer to the light and medium crude oil, natural gas liquids and conventional natural gas product types, respectively, as defined in National Instrument 51-101, Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (“Nl 51-101“).
Production Breakdown by Product Type
Disclosure of production on a per boe basis in this document consists of the constituent product types as defined in NI 51–101 and their respective quantities disclosed in the table below:
Light and Medium Crude oil(bbls/d)
NGLs(boe/d)
Conventional Natural gas(Mcf/d)
Total(boe/d)
Q4 2023 Average Production
4,142
1,520
23,606
9,596
2023 Average Production
3,822
1,396
22,839
9,025
Q4 2024 Average Production
3,691
1,651
24,203
9,376
2024 Average Production
3,523
1,499
22,139
8,712
2024 Annual Guidance
3,535
1,495
22,170
8,725(1)
2025 Annual Guidance
3,425
1,510
23,790
8,900(2)
2025 Pro Forma Estimate
9,535
2,180
42,215
18,750
Notes:
1.
This reflects the mid-point of the Company’s 2024 production guidance range of 8,700 to 8,750 boe/d.
2.
This reflects the mid-point of the Company’s 2025 production guidance range of 8,650 to 9,150 boe/d.
3.
With respect to forward–looking production guidance, product type breakdown is based upon management’s expectations based on reasonable assumptions but are subject to variability based on actual well results.
BOE equivalent
Barrel of oil equivalents or BOEs may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different than the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a 6:1 conversion basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Initial Production Rates
References in this press release to IP rates, other short-term production rates or initial performance measures relating to new wells are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons; however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company. Accordingly, the Company cautions that the test results should be considered to be preliminary.
Key Points: – OPEC+ surprises market with planned April output increase of 138,000 barrels per day – US imposes new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, triggering potential trade tensions – Micro-cap energy stocks face potential volatility and consolidation opportunities
The global oil market is experiencing a pivotal moment that demands close scrutiny from energy sector investors. OPEC+ has recently confirmed a planned April output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, a decision that has immediately rippled through global energy markets. The financial implications are significant: Brent futures dropped 1.45% to $70.58 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.07% to $67.64, signaling a complex and potentially challenging investment landscape.
The current market dynamics are further complicated by a series of aggressive trade policies implemented by the U.S. administration. New tariffs of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with increased Chinese import tariffs from 10% to 20%, are creating a multilayered challenge for energy companies across the value chain. These policy shifts are particularly consequential for smaller energy firms that may lack the financial buffers of larger, more established corporations.
For investors focusing on small and micro-cap energy stocks, the current market presents a nuanced investment environment. The compressed profit margins resulting from these market conditions are likely to accelerate sector consolidation. Companies with robust balance sheets, operational efficiency, and strategic adaptability will be best positioned to weather this volatility.
Commodity market experts provide critical insights into these trends. Darren Lim from Phillip Nova emphasizes that the current market is being driven by a combination of OPEC+ output decisions and new tariff implementations. Goldman Sachs analysts offer additional perspective, noting that Russia’s oil flows remain more constrained by production targets than existing sanctions, with potential downside risks to oil price forecasts.
The geopolitical landscape adds another layer of complexity to the investment calculus. President Trump’s recent pause in Ukraine military aid introduces additional uncertainty that could potentially reshape global oil market dynamics and existing sanctions frameworks. This geopolitical tension creates an additional variable for investors to consider when evaluating energy sector investments.
Investors in small and micro-cap energy stocks should focus on several key strategic considerations:
Fundamental Analysis: A deep dive into individual company financials is crucial. Look beyond surface-level metrics to understand each company’s true operational efficiency, debt levels, and ability to adapt to market fluctuations.
Geographical Diversification: Companies with operations across multiple regions may be better positioned to mitigate risks associated with localized economic or political challenges.
Technological Innovation: Energy firms investing in efficient extraction technologies and exploring alternative energy solutions may demonstrate greater long-term resilience.
Cost Management: In a volatile market, companies that can maintain lean operations and control production costs will have a significant competitive advantage.
While the current market presents significant challenges, it simultaneously creates opportunities for strategic investors. The potential for industry consolidation means that well-positioned companies could emerge as attractive acquisition targets or potential market leaders.
Market indicators suggest that volatility in the energy sector is likely to continue. Successful investment strategies will require a disciplined approach, continuous research, and the ability to adapt quickly to changing market conditions.
Investors should maintain a balanced perspective, recognizing that short-term market fluctuations do not necessarily indicate long-term sector performance. Careful analysis, diversification, and a forward-looking investment approach will be key to navigating these complex market dynamics.
Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Reverse Split. Effective February 24, Comstock Inc. implemented a reverse split of its common stock at a ratio of 1-for-10, resulting in ~23.8 million shares outstanding. Comstock’s authorized number of shares of common stock remains 245.0 million. LODE shares began trading on a split-adjusted basis on February 25 and gained 5.6% to close at $3.05 per share.
Updating estimates. While we have made no changes to our 2024 estimates, we estimate first quarter 2025 weighted average shares outstanding of 154.5 million due to the timing of the reverse split. We have reduced our share count for the last three quarters of 2025 and project weighted average shares in 2025 to be 56.2 million. While our full year loss forecast of $22.0 million is unchanged, our earnings per loss estimate increased to $(0.39) from $(0.09).
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Optimization study identifies sources of lower cost.Century Lithium recently completed an initial internal optimization study of its Angel Island Lithium project. The review identified cost reductions of up to 25%, or $395.2 million, associated with the project’s Phase I capital expenditures totaling $1,580.7 billion. Recall the most recent feasibility study dated April 29, 2024, contemplates three phases of production with the capital costs associated with the second and third phases amounting to $657.0 million and $1,338.5 billion, respectively.
Key areas of focus.Among other potential cost savings, the study identified opportunities to reduce capital costs through changes in the flow sheet, equipment selection, and updated vendor quotes in the processing areas of filtration, direct lithium extraction, and the chlor-alkali plant. The study also identified potential areas where modification of site facilities and the elimination of inefficiencies could streamline the process from mining to the production of battery-grade lithium. We expect that some of these efficiencies may extend to Phases II and III thus offering the potential for additional savings.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Transaction highlights. The acquisition appears to offer significant synergies and benefits to InPlay’s operations. InPlay’s production is expected to more than double to 18,750 boe/d from previous guidance of 8,650-9,150. Additionally, on a per share basis, 2025 adjusted funds flow (AFF) is expected to increase to C$204 million from previous guidance of C$69-75 million. Furthermore, the nature of the assets acquired is expected to enhance operational efficiencies to InPlay’s existing Pembina asset base by increasing the scale and contributing to lower decline, higher oil-weighting, and less capital-intensive production.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Key Points: – Oil prices retreat as markets weigh impact of potential US retaliatory tariffs – Treasury signals stricter Iran export limits, targeting 100,000 barrels per day – JPMorgan forecasts Brent crude to average $61 in 2026 amid supply surplus
Crude oil markets demonstrated heightened volatility on Friday as traders grappled with conflicting signals from geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties. The commodity market’s response highlights growing concerns about global demand amid an increasingly complex international trade landscape.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude retreated below the critical $71 mark, continuing its downward trajectory for the week, while Brent futures showed resilience but remained vulnerable to mounting trade concerns. The mixed performance comes as markets digest President Trump’s latest trade policy moves and stricter Iran sanctions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s hawkish statements regarding Iranian oil exports sent initial shockwaves through the market, pushing prices up by 1% in early trading. “We are committed to bringing the Iranians to going back to 100,000 barrels per day of exports, as when Trump left office,” Bessent told Fox Business, signaling a potentially significant supply disruption.
However, the bullish momentum was quickly tempered by escalating trade tensions. President Trump’s signing of a reciprocal tariff plan, although delayed for negotiations, has introduced new uncertainties into the global economic outlook. The move follows recent targeted sanctions against Chinese products, which prompted immediate retaliation from Beijing.
“The demand picture remains in question near term as the retaliation of even higher US tariffs may hamper global demand,” warns Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial. This sentiment echoes throughout the trading community, with many analysts expressing concern about the potential impact on global growth and oil demand.
Adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook, recent developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict have introduced additional price pressures. JPMorgan’s commodity team, led by Natasha Kaneva, maintains their 2025 Brent forecast at $73 per barrel, citing supply surpluses. Their analysis extends into 2026, projecting prices to decline below $60 by year-end.
Market veterans note that the current price action reflects a delicate balance between supply-side constraints and demand-side uncertainties. “We’re seeing a market that’s increasingly sensitive to macro factors beyond traditional supply-demand dynamics,” explains Maria Rodriguez, chief commodities strategist at Global Market Analytics. “The interplay between trade policy, geopolitical tensions, and energy security concerns is creating a complex trading environment.”
Technical analysts point to key support levels around $70 for WTI crude, suggesting potential downside risks if this threshold is breached. “The market is showing signs of technical weakness, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average, forming what traders call a ‘death cross,'” notes Alex Chen, senior technical analyst at Energy Market Solutions. This bearish technical signal, combined with fundamental headwinds, could pressure prices further in the near term.
Looking ahead to Q2 2025, market participants are closely monitoring several key factors that could influence price direction. The effectiveness of Iran sanctions, potential shifts in OPEC+ production policy, and the outcome of trade negotiations between major economies will likely determine the market’s trajectory. Goldman Sachs maintains a more bullish outlook than its peers, forecasting Brent crude to reach $85 per barrel by year-end, citing potential supply disruptions and stronger-than-expected Chinese demand.
InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updated 2024 guidance. Inplay Oil modestly lowered its 2024 production guidance to 8,700 to 8,750 boe/d from 8,700 to 9,000. Additionally, the company lowered its expectations for crude oil prices and slightly raised expense guidance. Due to these changes, the adjusted funds flow (AFF) is expected to range from C$68 million to C$70 million compared to prior guidance of C$70 million to C$73 million. Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to come in at around C$63 million compared to original expectations of C$64-67 million. The savings are mainly due to cost efficiencies from the Pembina Cardium Unit #7 (PCU7) drilling program.
Outlook for 2025. Management has planned a capital-efficient program in 2025. The company expects to increase production by 2%, in the range of 8,650 to 9,150 boe/d, compared to 2024, while spending around C$20 million less. The total capital budget for 2025 is C$41 million to C$44 million and will primarily be directed toward the Pembina Cardium Unit #7 property. Management expects adjusted funds flow (AFF) to benefit from lower capital expenditures and anticipates 2025 AFF to be between C$69 million and C$75 million.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Key Points: – TPG Rise Climate will acquire Altus Power for $5.00 per share in a $2.2 billion deal, taking the company private to accelerate clean energy expansion. – Altus Power’s Board of Directors unanimously approved the transaction, which represents a 66% premium to its October 2024 stock price and is expected to close in Q2 2025. – This acquisition aligns with TPG Rise Climate’s strategy to scale climate solutions, leveraging its expertise in clean energy infrastructure to support Altus Power’s growth.
Altus Power, the largest owner of commercial-scale solar in the U.S., has announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to be acquired by TPG through its TPG Rise Climate Transition Infrastructure strategy. Under the terms of the agreement, TPG will acquire Altus at $5.00 per share, valuing the company at approximately $2.2 billion, including outstanding debt. Upon completion of the transaction, Altus Power will become a privately held company.
Strategic Rationale and Market Impact
On October 15, 2024, Altus Power initiated a formal review of strategic alternatives. Today’s purchase price represents a 66% premium to Altus’ closing price on that date. The company expects this acquisition to bolster its ability to provide greater value to both commercial and Community Solar customers while expanding access to clean electric power.
“This transaction represents a pivotal moment for Altus Power,” said Gregg Felton, CEO of Altus Power. “We are incredibly excited to partner with TPG Rise Climate to continue to build our position as the leading commercial-scale provider of clean electric power to businesses and households from coast to coast. TPG Rise Climate’s deep expertise in the clean energy sector, investment-oriented mindset, and value-driven approach to infrastructure development align perfectly with our vision. This partnership strengthens our ability to serve both our Community Solar and commercial clients with clean electric power at a time when demand for power is expected to grow substantially. As a private company, Altus Power will be better positioned for continued long-term growth, which we believe will allow us to scale our operations, drive innovation, and enhance the value we deliver to our customers. Together with TPG Rise Climate, we believe we are poised to accelerate clean energy adoption and ensure more businesses and communities have access to the power they need for a sustainable future.”
Transaction Details
The Board of Directors of Altus has unanimously approved the transaction and recommends that Altus stockholders vote to adopt the merger agreement.
The deal is contingent upon majority approval by Class A stockholders.
The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2025.
About TPG Rise Climate
TPG Rise Climate is the dedicated climate investing platform of TPG, a leading global alternative asset management firm. With dedicated pools of capital across private equity, transition infrastructure, and the Global South, TPG Rise Climate focuses on climate-related investments that benefit from the expertise of TPG’s investment professionals and its global network of executives, advisors, and corporate partners. As part of TPG’s $25 billion global impact investing platform, TPG Rise Climate invests broadly in the climate sector, emphasizing clean electrons, clean molecules and materials, and negative emissions.
About Altus Power
Altus Power is a leader in commercial-scale solar energy, providing clean, renewable energy solutions for businesses and communities across the U.S. The company is currently traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AMPS.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Outlook for 2025. Hemisphere Energy expects 2025 capital expenditures of approximately C$17 million which are expected to support ~15% growth in annual average production to 3,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) compared to 2024. Expenditures will be funded entirely from adjusted funds flow. Most of the capital will be allocated to drilling, optimization, and facility work, with approximately 10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition. Most planned expenditures are scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, providing the company with the flexibility to adjust plans based on changes in commodity prices.
Updating estimates. We have increased our 2024 adjusted funds flow (AFF) and EPS estimates to C$45.4 million and $0.32, respectively, from C$43.5 million and $0.31 to reflect modestly higher operating earnings. AFF and EPS in the fourth quarter are estimated to be C$10.0 million and $0.06, respectively. We have also increased our 2025 AFF and EPS estimates to C$50.6 million and $0.37, respectively, from C$38.0 million and $0.27 to reflect higher average annual production of 3,900 boe/d compared to our prior estimate of 3,625 boe/d. Additionally, we increased our WTI crude oil price assumption to US$72.00 per barrel versus our prior estimate of US$70.00.
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Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – January 29, 2025) – Hemisphere Energy Corporation (TSXV: HME) (OTCQX: HMENF) (“Hemisphere” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide a corporate update, announce the declaration of a quarterly dividend payment to shareholders, and deliver guidance for 2025.
Corporate Update
In 2024, Hemisphere achieved annual production growth of 10%, executed a $22 million capital expenditure program, and increased its positive year-end working capital position. The Company also returned over $0.22/share ($21.2 million) to shareholders in the form of dividends ($15.7 million) and share buybacks ($5.5 million), which represents an annualized 11.9% yield to shareholders based on Hemisphere’s market capitalization at December 31, 2024.
Hemisphere’s 2024 capital expenditure program grew production, added required infrastructure, and commenced testing a new resource play with an enhanced oil recovery (“EOR”) polymer pilot project. These investments were funded entirely by cash flow from the Company’s long-life reserve base and ultra-low production decline rates in the Atlee Buffalo oil assets, and have set up Hemisphere for continued growth in 2025.
Based on field estimates, production over the past two months (December 1, 2024 – January 27, 2025) has averaged approximately 3,800 boe/d (99% heavy oil) as new Atlee Buffalo wells were brought online through the fourth quarter of last year. With the addition of a new treater late in the quarter and upcoming injector conversions, these and other wells are expected to continue to be optimized during the first quarter of 2025 in Hemisphere’s flagship EOR polymer flood projects.
Balance sheet strength in 2024 allowed Hemisphere to invest in its pilot EOR project in the Marsden area of western Saskatchewan. The Company drilled 5 wells (3 production wells and 2 injection wells) and built facilities required to produce oil and inject polymer back into a known accumulation of oil that had been previously produced with vertical wells and abandoned, with the plans of rebuilding reservoir pressure and increasing the recovery factor of the oil-in-place from the pool. First injection commenced late in the third quarter of 2024 and Hemisphere is anticipating to see potential EOR response in mid-to-late 2025.
Quarterly Dividend
Hemisphere is pleased to announce that its Board of Directors has approved a quarterly cash dividend of $0.025 per common share in accordance with the Company’s dividend policy. The dividend will be paid on February 26, 2025 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on February 12, 2025. The dividend is designated as an eligible dividend for income tax purposes.
2025 Corporate Guidance
Hemisphere’s Board of Directors has approved a 2025 capital expenditure program of approximately $17 million, which is planned to be entirely funded by Hemisphere’s estimated 2025 adjusted funds flow1 (“AFF”) of $51 million and is anticipated to provide 15% annual production growth. The majority of capital will be allocated to drilling, optimization, and facility work, with approximately 10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition. Most of the planned capital expenditures are scheduled for the third quarter of 2025, providing Hemisphere with the flexibility to adjust plans subject to the commodity price environment.
After capital expenditures and asset retirement obligations (“ARO”), 2025 free funds flow1 (“FFF”) is estimated to be $34 million, of which approximately 30% is budgeted to be paid in quarterly base dividends as shown in the table below. The balance of cash will be used for discretionary purposes, which may include potential acceleration of other development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and additional return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) program and/or special dividends. In 2024, two special dividends totaling $0.06/share ($5.7 million) were paid to shareholders in addition to Hemisphere’s base quarterly dividends of $0.10/share ($10 million), and share buybacks amounted to $0.06/share ($5.5 million), bringing total shareholder returns to $0.22/share ($21.2 million).
Management believes that the 2025 development plan provides stable production growth and consistent shareholder returns, with significant flexibility built in to allow for necessary adjustments based on changing political and commodity environments.
Highlights and assumptions of Hemisphere’s guidance at US$75/bbl WTI are as follows:
Average annual production of 3,900 boe/d (99% heavy oil), a 15% increase as compared to 2024
Average WTI price of US$75/bbl, with sensitivities shown at US$65/bbl and US$85/bbl
WCS differential of US$14.00/bbl and quality adjustment of $7.00/bbl
CAD/US FX of 1.43
Operating and transportation costs of $15.25/boe
Royalties and GORRs on gross revenue of 21% at US$75/bbl WTI, 19% at US$65/bbl WTI, and 23% at US$85/bbl WTI
Net G&A of $3.66/boe
Tax Costs of $8.10/boe at US$75/bbl WTI, $5.64/boe at US$65/bbl WTI, and $10.37/boe at US$85/bbl WTI
Notes: (1) AFF, Capital Expenditures, and FFF (including per share amounts) are non-IFRS financial measures that are forward looking and do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. AFF per basic share and FFF per basic share are non-IFRS financial ratios that are forward looking and do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar ratios presented by other entities and include non-IFRS financial measure components of AFF and FFF. See “Non-IFRS Measures“. (2) See assumptions noted above within “2025 Corporate Guidance”. (3) Using a 2025 weighted average of 97.4 million basic shares issued and outstanding. (4) The amounts above do not include potential future purchases through the Company’s NCIB program or other discretionary uses of available funds.
About Hemisphere Energy Corporation
Hemisphere is a dividend-paying Canadian oil company focused on maximizing value-per-share growth with the sustainable development of its high netback, ultra-low decline conventional heavy oil assets through polymer flood enhanced recovery methods. Hemisphere trades on the TSX Venture Exchange as a Tier 1 issuer under the symbol “HME” and on the OTCQX Venture Marketplace under the symbol “HMENF”.
For further information, please visit the Company’s website at www.hemisphereenergy.ca to view its corporate presentation or contact:
Don Simmons, President & Chief Executive Officer Telephone: (604) 685-9255 Email: info@hemisphereenergy.ca
Certain statements included in this news release constitute forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (collectively, “forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as anticipate, continue, estimate, expect, forecast, may, will, project, could, plan, intend, should, believe, outlook, potential, target, and similar words suggesting future events or future performance. In particular, but without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this news release includes forward-looking statements regarding the record date and payment date for Hemisphere’s quarterly dividend; expectations for the continued optimization of certain wells during the first quarter of 2025 in Hemisphere’s flagship EOR polymer flood projects; expectations on timing for potential EOR responses for activities in the Marsden area of western Saskatchewan; that Hemisphere’s 2025 capital budget is planned to be entirely funded by Hemisphere’s estimated 2025 AFF and is anticipated to provide 15% annual production growth, including that the majority of capital will be allocated to drilling, optimization, and facility work, with approximately 10% allotted to exploration and land acquisition, as well as expectations for the timing of such expenditures; Hemisphere’s anticipation that approximately 30% of estimated $34 million in free funds flow will be paid in quarterly dividends with the balance of cash being used for discretionary purposes; the expected manner in which the Company’s 2025 capital budget will be spent, including the timing of such expenditures and any discretionary amounts, which may include potential acceleration of other development or exploration projects, acquisitions, and return of capital to shareholders through Hemisphere’s NCIB program and/or dividends, and the anticipated effects thereof, including as set forth under “2025 Corporate Guidance” and the Company’s dividend policy and the other matters and guidance set forth under “2025 Corporate Guidance”; and management’s belief that the 2025 development plan provides stable production growth and consistent shareholder returns, with significant flexibility built in to allow for necessary adjustments based on changing political and commodity environments.
Forward‐looking statements are based on a number of material factors, expectations or assumptions of Hemisphere which have been used to develop such statements and information, but which may prove to be incorrect. Although Hemisphere believes that the expectations reflected in such forward‐looking statements or information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on forward‐looking statements because Hemisphere can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein (including the assumptions noted in respect of “2025 Corporate Guidance”), assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the current and go-forward oil price environment; that Hemisphere will continue to conduct its operations in a manner consistent with past operations; continued trade-agreements remain in place and no trade related disputes will develop, including tariffs on Canadian energy production to the United States will be applicable, that results from drilling and development activities are consistent with past operations; the quality of the reservoirs in which Hemisphere operates and continued performance from existing wells; the continued and timely development of infrastructure in areas of new production; inflationary pressure and related costs; that the Company’s dividend policy will remain the same and the Company will continue to be able to declare dividends; the accuracy of the estimates of Hemisphere’s reserve volumes; certain commodity price and other cost assumptions; continued availability of debt and equity financing and cash flow to fund Hemisphere’s current and future plans and expenditures; the impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the economic and political environment in which Hemisphere operates; the general continuance of current industry conditions; the timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of the operator of the projects in which Hemisphere has an interest in to operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the ability of Hemisphere to obtain financing on acceptable terms; field production rates and decline rates; the accuracy of the Company’s reservoir modelling; the ability to replace and expand oil and natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility construction and expansion and the ability of Hemisphere to secure adequate product transportation; future commodity prices; currency, exchange and interest rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which Hemisphere operates; and the ability of Hemisphere to successfully market its oil and natural gas products.
The forward‐looking statements included in this news release are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly relied upon. Such information and statements, including the assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in such forward‐looking statements including, without limitation: changes in commodity prices; regulatory risks, including penalties or other remedial actions, the ability of the Company to maintain legal title to its properties; changes in the demand for or supply of Hemisphere’s products, the early stage of development of some of the evaluated areas and zones; unanticipated operating results or production declines; results of Hemisphere’s waterflood operations; the ability of Hemisphere to, pending future events, return capital to shareholders as a result of any required third party approvals; changes in budgets; changes in tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory matters; changes in development plans of Hemisphere or by third party operators of Hemisphere’s properties, increased debt levels or debt service requirements; inaccurate estimation of Hemisphere’s oil and gas reserve volumes; limited, unfavourable or a lack of access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other risks detailed from time‐to‐time in Hemisphere’s public disclosure documents, (including, without limitation, those risks identified in this news release and in Hemisphere’s most recent Annual Information Form).
The forward‐looking statements contained in this news release speak only as of the date of this news release, and Hemisphere does not assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the included forward‐looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required by applicable securities laws.
Forward Looking Financial Information
This news release may contain future oriented financial information (“FOFI”) within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including with respect to the Company’s anticipated 2025 Free Funds Flow, Capital Expenditures and Adjusted Funds Flow (including where applicable per share amounts). The FOFI has been prepared by management to provide an outlook of the Company’s activities and results. The FOFI has been prepared based on a number of assumptions including the assumptions discussed and disclosed above, including in relation to “2025 Corporate Guidance” above and “Forward Looking Statements” above and that the Company is cash taxable in 2025. Readers are cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on FOFI. The Company’s actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these FOFI, or if any of them do so, what benefits the Company will derive therefrom. The Company has included the FOFI in order to provide readers with a more complete perspective on the Company’s future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any FOFI statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Non-IFRS and Other Measures
This news release contains terms that are non-IFRS measures or ratios that are forward looking and commonly used in the oil and gas industry which are not defined by or calculated in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”), such as: (i) adjusted funds flow (ii) adjusted funds flow per basic share; (iii) capital expenditures; (iv) free funds flow; and (v) free funds flow per basic share. These terms should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than the comparable IFRS measures (as determined in accordance with IFRS) which in the case of funds flow is cash provided by operating activities, in the case of adjusted funds flow (and adjusted funds flow per share) is cash provided by operating activities and in the case of capital expenditures is cash flow used in investing activities. There is no IFRS measure that is reasonably comparable to free funds flow. These measures are commonly used in the oil and gas industry and by Hemisphere to provide shareholders and potential investors with additional information regarding: (i) in the case of adjusted funds flow and free funds flow, the Company’s ability to generate the funds necessary to support future growth through capital investment and to repay any debt.
Hemisphere’s determination of these measures may not be comparable to that reported by other companies. Adjusted funds flow is calculated as cash generated by operating activities, before changes in non-cash working capital and adjusted for any decommissioning expenditures; Adjusted funds flow per share is calculated using the outstanding basic shares of the company as footnoted in the 2024 Corporate Guidance table; Free Funds Flow is calculated as Adjusted Funds Flow less capital expenditures; and Free funds flow per share is calculated using the outstanding basic shares of the company as footnoted in the 2025 Corporate Guidance table. The Company has provided additional information on how these measures are calculated, including a reconciliation of such measures to their comparable IFRS measure, in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis for the year ended December 31, 2023 and the interim period ended September 30, 2024, which are available under the Company’s SEDAR+ profile at www.sedarplus.ca.
In respect of any forward-looking non-IFRS measures, there is no significant difference between the non-GAAP financial measure that are forward-looking information and the equivalent historical non-GAAP financial measures.
In this news release, Hemisphere uses the term market capitalization at year-end. Hemisphere’s market capitalization was $178.2 million based on 97,389,735 shares outstanding and the Company’s closing price of $1.83 per share on December 31, 2024.
All amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars unless otherwise noted.
Oil and Gas Advisories
Any references in this news release to recent production rates (including as a result of recent waterflood activities) which may be considered to be initial rates and are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons; however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will continue production and decline thereafter and are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company. Such rates are based on field estimates and may be based on limited data available at this time.
A barrel of oil equivalent (“boe”) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf:1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. In addition, given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
Definitions and Abbreviations
bbl
Barrel
WTI
West Texas Intermediate
bbl/d
barrels per day
WCS
Western Canadian Select
$/bbl
dollar per barrel
US$
United States Dollar
boe
barrel of oil equivalent
boe/d
barrel of oil equivalent per day
IFRS
International Financial Reporting Standards
$/boe
dollar per barrel of oil equivalent
G&A
General and Administrative Costs
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this news release.
Key Points: – Atlas’s $220M Moser deal adds 212MW power fleet, expanding beyond proppant – Deal valued at 4.3x 2025 EBITDA with Moser’s 50%+ margins – Q4 revenue up 92% YOY despite profit pressure, Moser adds stability
Atlas Energy Solutions (NYSE: AESI) is making a bold move into the distributed power market with its $220 million acquisition of Moser Energy Systems, marking a significant expansion beyond its core proppant and logistics business. The deal, announced Monday, represents a strategic pivot that could reshape Atlas’s market position in the energy sector.
The transaction, structured with $180 million in cash and approximately 1.7 million shares of Atlas common stock, values Moser’s operations at roughly 4.3x projected 2025 Adjusted EBITDA. This relatively attractive multiple reflects the strategic value Atlas sees in Moser’s distributed power solutions business, which brings with it a substantial fleet of natural gas-powered assets totaling approximately 212 megawatts.
“This acquisition diversifies the Company into attractive high-growth end markets in both production and distributed power while strengthening Atlas’s current market position,” said John Turner, President and CEO of Atlas. The deal appears well-timed, as the energy sector increasingly focuses on efficient power solutions and environmental considerations.
Mark Reichman, Senior research analyst at Noble Capital Markets, sees broader implications for Atlas’s market position. “In our view, the accretive acquisition of Moser is a strategic play on the theme of electrification and growing demand for electricity,” he notes. “It provides a platform for growth in the distributed power market and provides entry into adjacent end markets, including midstream infrastructure, RNG plants, data centers, and industrial backup power. It enhances and extends Atlas’s competitive position as an integrated solutions provider with exposure to both oilfield services and the distributed power market.”
The strategic rationale becomes clearer when examining Atlas’s preliminary fourth-quarter results for 2024. While the company reported strong revenue growth of approximately 92% year-over-year for Q4, reaching between $270-272 million, its gross profit and Adjusted EBITDA showed some pressure. This acquisition could help stabilize earnings through market cycles by adding Moser’s impressive 50%+ EBITDA margins and robust cash flow generation to Atlas’s portfolio.
Moser’s integration into Atlas creates an innovative energy solutions provider that combines Atlas’s existing completion platform with Moser’s distributed power expertise. The merger brings critical manufacturing capabilities in-house, potentially reducing maintenance and equipment replacement costs while improving quality control. This vertical integration could prove particularly valuable in the current market environment where supply chain reliability is paramount.
The geographic fit appears strong, with Moser’s operations complementing Atlas’s core presence in the Permian Basin while adding diversity through operations across other key oil and gas basins in the central United States. This expansion could help Atlas better serve existing customers while opening new market opportunities.
Looking ahead, Atlas expects the transaction to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025, subject to customary conditions. The company has secured financing through an upsizing amendment to its existing delayed draw term loan facility, demonstrating confidence in the deal’s financial structure.
For investors, this acquisition signals Atlas’s evolution from a pure-play proppant and logistics provider to a more diversified energy solutions company. The move could reduce the company’s exposure to completion operation volatility while positioning it to capitalize on the growing demand for distributed power solutions in the oil and gas sector.
The market will be watching closely to see how quickly Atlas can integrate Moser’s operations and whether the projected $40-45 million in Adjusted EBITDA contribution for 2025 materializes as expected. With energy markets continuing to evolve, this strategic expansion could position Atlas for more stable growth in the years ahead.