Category: Economy

IMF Economic Outlook: U.S. Growth Revised Up, Europe Down

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its updated World Economic Outlook report, providing insights into global economic projections. A key theme is diverging fortunes for major economies like the United States and Europe.

The IMF upgraded its 2023 GDP growth forecast for the U.S. to 2.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from its prior estimate. The upbeat revision reflects resilience in areas like business investment and consumer spending despite high inflation and interest rates. However, growth is still seen slowing in 2023 and 2024 as the impacts of tightening policy kick in.

Meanwhile, the IMF downgraded the euro zone 2023 outlook to 0.7% growth, 0.2 percentage points lower than previously expected. Slowing trade and higher rates are severely impacting Germany, while other euro economies face varied challenges. The IMF predicts gradual euro zone growth recovery to 1.2% in 2024, though still below pre-pandemic levels.

For the U.K., the IMF upgraded near-term growth slightly to 0.5% in 2023 but lowered its 2024 forecast on expectations of lingering damage from energy price shocks. The U.K. faces a difficult road ahead.

Overall, the IMF kept its global growth outlook unchanged at 3% for 2023. This sluggish pace reflects myriad headwinds including inflation, tight monetary policy, supply chain issues, and the war in Ukraine. IMF Chief Economist Gourinchas described the global economy as “limping along” below its pre-pandemic trend.

Positives like easing supply chain bottlenecks, lower Covid impacts, and stabilizing financial conditions will provide some uplift. But manufacturing and services slowdowns, synchronized central bank tightening, and China’s property crisis will constrain growth.

For investors, the IMF outlook sends mixed signals. U.S. economic resilience and continued consumer strength provide room for cautious optimism. But Europe’s downward revision and pervasive global headwinds like inflation suggest ongoing volatility and potential bumps ahead.

This outlook underscores the importance of defensive positioning and safe haven assets to balance riskier equities. Key takeaways for investors include:

  • Focus on U.S. sectors and stocks benefitting from higher business and consumer spending.
  • Tread carefully in Europe as weaker growth hits markets. Emphasize quality multinationals with less cyclical dependence.
  • Inflation and interest rates will remain challenges influencing markets and consumer behavior.
  • China’s faltering growth and property bubble pose threats worth monitoring.
  • Pay close attention to recession signals that could shift IMF forecasts and alter market psychology.

While the global economy is still expanding, momentum is slowing with many obstacles to navigate. Investors should build resilient portfolios capable of withstanding volatile conditions, while staying alert for any deterioration that could change the IMF’s cautious optimism.

Middle East Tensions Move the Global Markets

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas has sent shockwaves around the world, with major implications for global financial markets. This past weekend, Hamas militants launched a deadly attack in Israel, killing over 700 people. Israel has retaliated with airstrikes in Gaza and a blockade, leading to rising casualties on both sides. As the violence continues, here is how the clashes could impact the stock market and oil prices.

Stocks Tumble Over 2%

Major US stock indexes fell sharply on Monday in early trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 700 points, or 2.1%. The S&P 500 declined 2.2% while the Nasdaq Composite sank 2.5%. The declines came amid a broader sell-off as investors fled to safe haven assets like bonds, but stocks trimmed losses as the day progressed.

By early afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down just 0.7% after falling over 700 points earlier. The S&P and Nasdaq posted similar reversals after opening sharply lower.

Energy and defense sector stocks bucked the downward trend, rising on expectations of higher oil prices and military spending. But the prospect of further violence dragged down shares of transportation, tourism, and other cyclical firms that benefit from economic growth. Stock markets in Europe and Asia also posted sizable losses.

Prolonged Instability Adds Downside Risks

While markets often rebound after initial geopolitical shocks, an extended conflict between Israel and Hamas could lead to a deeper, sustained selloff. Investors fear that rising tensions in the Middle East could upend the post-pandemic economic recovery. Supply chains already facing shortages and logistical bottlenecks could worsen if violence escalates. US fiscal spending could also spike higher if military involvement grows.

Surging oil prices feeding into already high inflation may spur the Federal Reserve to tighten policy faster. This risks hampering consumer spending and growth. Elevated uncertainty tends to erode business confidence and curb capital expenditures as well. From an earnings perspective, prolonged fighting dents bottom lines of various multinationals operating in the region. The potential economic fallout from persistent Middle East unrest weighs heavily on investors.

Oil Jumps Over 4%

Brent crude oil surged above $110 per barrel, gaining over 4% on Monday before paring some gains. West Texas Intermediate also vaulted over 4% to above $86 per barrel. The jump in oil prices came amid worries that supplies from the Middle East could be disrupted if violence spreads.

The Middle East accounts for about one-third of global oil output. While Israel is not a major producer, heightened regional tensions tend to lift crude prices. Oil markets fear that unrest could spill over into other parts of the region or lead oil producers to curb supply.

Prolonged Supply Issues

If the Israel-Hamas conflict draws in more countries or persists in disrupting regional stability, crude prices could head even higher. Any supply chain troubles that keep oil from reaching end markets will feed into rising inflation. High energy costs are already squeezing consumers and corporations worldwide.

Organizations like OPEC could decide to take advantage of conflict-driven oil spikes by reducing output further. Constraints on Middle East oil transit and infrastructure damage could also support higher prices. From an economic perspective, pricier crude weighs on growth by driving up business costs and crimping consumer purchasing power. Prolonged oil supply problems due to Middle East unrest would prove corrosive for the global economy.

Hope for Swift Resolution

With oil surging and equities declining, investors hope the clashes between Israel and Hamas wind down rapidly. Markets are likely to remain choppy and risks skewed to the downside in the interim. But a quick de-escalation and return to stability could spark a relief rally.

Energy and defense sectors may give back some gains while cyclical segments would likely rebound. Still, the massive human toll and damage already incurred will weigh on regional economic potential for years to come. The attacks also shattered a delicate effort to broker ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hopes for a durable resolution between Israelis and Palestinians have once again been dashed. The economic impacts already felt across global markets are only a glimpse of the long-term consequences of deepening conflict.

Jobs Report Rockets Past Wall Street Estimates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The September jobs report revealed the U.S. economy added 336,000 jobs last month, nearly double expectations. The data highlights the resilience of the labor market even as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to cool demand.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast 170,000 job additions for September. The actual gain of 336,000 jobs suggests the labor market remains strong despite broader economic headwinds.

The unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, unchanged from August and still near historic lows. This shows employers continue hiring even amid rising recession concerns.

Wage growth moderated but still increased 0.3% month-over-month and 5.0% year-over-year. Slowing wage gains may reflect reduced leverage for workers as economic uncertainty increases.

The report reinforces the tight labor market conditions the Fed has been hoping to loosen with its restrictive policy. Rate hikes aim to reduce open jobs and slow wage growth to contain inflationary pressures.

Yet jobs growth keeps exceeding forecasts, defying expectations of a downshift. The Fed wants to see clear cooling before it eases up on rate hikes. This report suggests its work is far from done.

The September strength was broad-based across industries. Leisure and hospitality added 96,000 jobs, largely from bars and restaurants staffing back up. Government employment rose 73,000 while healthcare added 41,000 jobs.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via CNBC

Upward revisions to July and August payrolls also paint a robust picture. An additional 119,000 jobs were created in those months combined versus initial estimates.

Markets are now pricing in a reduced chance of another major Fed rate hike in November following the jobs data. However, resilient labor demand will keep pressure on the central bank to maintain its aggressive tightening campaign.

While the Fed has raised rates five times this year, the benchmark rate likely needs to go higher to materially impact hiring and wage trajectories. The latest jobs figures support this view.

Ongoing job market tightness suggests inflation could become entrenched at elevated levels without further policy action. Businesses continue competing for limited workers, fueling wage and price increases.

The strength also hints at economic momentum still left despite bearish recession calls. Job security remains solid for many Americans even as growth slows.

Of course, the labor market is not immune to broader strains. If consumer and business activity keep moderating, job cuts could still materialize faster than expected.

For now, the September report shows employers shaking off gloomier outlooks and still urgently working to add staff and retain workers. This resiliency poses a dilemma for the Fed as it charts the course of rate hikes ahead.

The unexpectedly strong September jobs data highlights the difficult balancing act the Fed faces curbing inflation without sparking undue economic damage. For policymakers, the report likely solidifies additional rate hikes are still needed for a soft landing.

Bond Market Signals Recession Warning As Yields Invert

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The bond market is sounding alarm bells about the economic outlook. The yield on the 2-year Treasury briefly exceeded the 10-year yield this week for the first time since 2019. Known as a yield curve inversion, this phenomenon historically signals a recession could be on the horizon.

While not a guarantee, yield curve inversions have preceded every recession over the past 50 years. Here is what is happening in the bond market and what it could mean for investors.

Why Did Yields Invert?

Yields on short-term bonds like 2-year Treasuries tend to track the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. With the Fed aggressively hiking rates to combat inflation, short-term yields have been rising quickly.

Meanwhile, long-term yields like the 10-year are influenced by investors’ growth and inflation expectations. As optimism over the economy’s trajectory wanes, investors have been driving down long-term yields.

This dynamic inversion, where short-term rates exceed longer-duration ones, reflects mounting concerns that the Fed’s rate hikes will severely slow economic activity. Markets increasingly fear rates may cause a hard landing into recession.

Image credit: Cnbc.com

Growth and Inflation Concerns Intensify

The yield curve has flashed the most negative signal since the lead up to the pandemic recession. This suggests investors see a lack of catalysts for growth on the horizon even as inflation remains stubbornly high.

Ongoing supply chain problems, the war in Ukraine putting pressure on food and energy prices, and fears of a housing market slowdown are all weighing on outlooks. There is a sense the Fed lacks effective tools to bring down inflation without crushing the economy.

Meanwhile, key economic indicators like manufacturing surveys have weakened significantly. This points to activity already slowing ahead of when rate hikes would take full effect.

Implications for Investors

The risks of a recession are rising. Yield curve inversions have foreshadowed every recession since the 1950s. However, they have also sometimes occurred 1-2 years before downturns start.

This suggests investors should prepare for choppiness, but not panic. Rotating toward more defensive stocks like healthcare and consumer staples can help portfolios better weather volatility. At the same time, cyclical sectors like tech and industrials could face more pressure.

In fixed income, short-term bonds may offer opportunities as the Fed potentially cuts rates during a downturn. But credit-sensitive sectors like high-yield bonds and leveraged loans could struggle if defaults rise.

While uncertainty abounds, the inverted yield curve highlights the delicate balancing act ahead for the Fed and concerns over still-high inflation. Investors will be closely watching upcoming data for signs of how quickly the economy is slowing. For now, caution and safe-haven assets look to be in favor as recession worries cast a long shadow.

Crisis Averted: Government Stays Open

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

By averting a government shutdown, Congress has avoided rocking both the economy and financial markets. Shutting down federal operations would have created widespread uncertainty and turbulence. Instead, the move offers stability and continuity as the economy faces broader headwinds.

With virtually all government functions continuing normal operations, economic data releases, services, and programs will not face disruptions. Past shutdowns caused delays in economic reports, processing visa and loan applications, releasing small business aid, and more. These disruptions introduce friction that can dampen economic momentum.

Federal employees will continue receiving paychecks rather than facing furloughs. The last major shutdown in 2018-2019 resulted in 380,000 workers being furloughed. With over 2 million federal employees nationwide, even a partial shutdown can reduce economic activity from lost wages.

Government contractors also avoid financial duress from suspended contracts and payments. Many contractors faced cash flow crises during the 2018 shutdown as the government stopped paychecks. Reduced revenues directly hit company bottom lines.

Consumer and business confidence are likely to be maintained without the dysfunction of a funding gap. Surveys showed confidence dropped during past shutdowns as uncertainty rose. Lower confidence can make households and businesses reduce spending and investment, slowing growth.

The tourism industry does not have to contend with closing national parks, museums and monuments. The 2013 shutdown caused sites like the Statue of Liberty to close, resulting in lost revenue for vendors, hotels, and airlines. These impacts radiate through the economy.

Markets also benefit from reduced policy uncertainty. The 2011 debt ceiling showdown and 2018-2019 shutdown both introduced volatility as deadlines approached. Equities fell sharply in the final weeks of the 2018 impasse. While shutdowns alone don’t determine market trends, they contribute an unnecessary headwind.

With recent stock volatility driven by inflation and recession concerns, averting a shutdown provides one less factor to potentially spook markets. Traders never like surprises, and shutdowns heighten unpredictability.

On a sector basis, federal contractors and businesses leveraged to consumer spending stand to benefit most from the avoided disruption. Aerospace and defense firms like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman rely heavily on federal budgets. Consumer discretionary retailers and restaurants avoid lost sales from furloughed workers tightening budgets.

While shutdowns impose only marginal economic impact when brief, longer impasses can impose meaningful fiscal drags. The 16-day 2013 shutdown shaved 0.3% from that quarter’s GDP growth. The longer the stalemate, the greater the economic fallout.

Overall, with myriad headwinds already facing the economy in inflation, rising rates, and recession risks, avoiding a shutdown removes one variable from the equation. While defaulting on the national debt would produce far graver consequences, shutdowns still introduce unnecessary turbulence.

By staving off even a short-term shutdown, Congress helps maintain economic and market stability at a time it’s especially needed. This provides a breather after policy uncertainty spiked leading up to the shutdown deadline. While myriad challenges remain, at least this box has been checked, for now.

Student Loan Payments Resume

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After nearly 3 years of reprieve, student loan payments are set to restart on October 1, 2023. However, the landscape looks much different thanks to sweeping changes made by the Biden administration. These alterations have made student debt more manageable and offered routes to accelerated payoff or even forgiveness that didn’t exist before.

The impact could extend beyond individual borrowers to provide a boost to the overall economy. With less income eaten up by student loan payments, borrowers will have more spending power. That additional discretionary income circulating through the economy acts as a stimulus.

Perhaps the most impactful change was the elimination of interest capitalization in most cases. This is the process where unpaid interest gets added to the loan balance, causing it to balloon. Now, interest no longer capitalizes when borrowers exit forbearance, leave income-driven repayment plans, or have other status changes. Only when exiting deferment on unsubsidized loans does interest get added to principal. This prevents balances from spiraling out of control.

Biden has also dramatically expanded access to forgiveness. Over 3 million borrowers have already had loans discharged through revamps of programs like Public Service Loan Forgiveness and income-driven repayment. The former saw its complex rules simplified, while the latter had payment counts adjusted and forbearance periods now qualifying for credit. These tweaks pushed many over the line into immediate forgiveness.

Even borrowers who don’t qualify for these programs have an easier time discharging loans through bankruptcy. New guidelines tell government lawyers not to oppose bankruptcy discharge requests that meet certain criteria laid out in a 15-page form. This makes the previously rare “undue hardship” determination more accessible.

The administration also implemented a 1-year “on ramp” where missed payments don’t negatively impact credit or trigger default. This grace period offers struggling borrowers a clean slate before consequences kick in again.

Those able to resume payments may even benefit from today’s high interest rates. Federal student loans have fixed low rates, so borrowers can pay them down faster by investing in treasury notes earning far higher returns. Inflation likewise reduces the real burden of student debt over time.

While these changes have brought tangible individual relief, broadly reducing the student debt burden could also provide a macroeconomic boost. Money freed up in household budgets gets spent elsewhere, circulating through and stimulating the economy.

The Biden administration still wants to enact broad student debt cancellation for this very reason. After the Supreme Court blocked its forgiveness plan, the Department of Education launched “negotiated rulemaking” to find another path. This bureaucratic process involving public committees aims to deliver a new cancellation proposal in late 2024.

Until then, the reshaped student loan landscape gives borrowers breathing room. The structural changes determine whether student debt remains a crushing burden or becomes manageable.

With interest capitalization curbed and expanded opportunities for discharge, balances can actually shrink instead of endlessly growing. The credit safeguards offer wiggle room to get finances in order before consequences hit. And the door to forgiveness has been opened wider than ever before.

Of course, these alterations won’t instantly solve every borrower’s problems. But they provide avenues for relief that didn’t exist previously. And more importantly, they signal a philosophical shift that student debt shouldn’t ruin lives or constrain futures.

There’s still work to be done, like making income-driven repayment more accessible and adding guardrails to limit excessive debt. But the momentum is towards a system that helps borrowers succeed rather than burying them in interest and unpayable balances.

So while student loan repayment is resuming, borrowers can take heart that it’s restarting under a fairer set of rules. The old grind of watching debt balloon while relief remained elusive has thankfully been left behind. With a potential wider economic stimulus, these changes could benefit more than just student borrowers.

August PCE Index Release Suggests Slower Pace of Inflation Growth

Posted on by cpatches

Today’s news brings the release of the August data for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This report, a crucial indicator of inflation and consumer spending in the United States, has set a positive tone for financial markets as they rally in early trading.

In August, the PCE Index recorded a year-over-year growth rate of 3.5%, showing a modest increase from the previous month’s 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, inched up by 0.1%, slightly lower than the 0.2% increase in July.

The Federal Reserve has long regarded the core PCE as its favored measure of inflation. While the August PCE report has provided insight into inflation trends, it’s important to note that the Fed made a decision to keep interest rates steady earlier this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell consistently references the core PCE figures when assessing inflation. Powell has emphasized that inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, which has informed the central bank’s recent decision to maintain interest rates within a range of 5.25%-5.50%. This decision underscores the Fed’s cautious approach to managing inflation while fostering economic growth.

Historically, PCE reports have played a significant role in guiding monetary policy and influencing market dynamics. When inflationary pressures rise, the Fed may respond by raising interest rates to curb price increases. Conversely, when PCE growth moderates, the central bank may opt for rate cuts to stimulate economic activity.

While the report suggests a slower pace of inflation growth in August compared to July, inflation remains a pertinent issue. Investors will closely monitor subsequent reports and Federal Reserve actions to gain insight into the trajectory of inflation and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy. The early market rally reflects the market’s optimism following the release of the latest PCE data, as it continues to navigate the evolving economic landscape.

Mortgage Rates Hit 23-Year High

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Mortgage rates crossed the 7% threshold this past week, as the 30-year fixed rate hit 7.31% according to Freddie Mac data. This marks the highest level for mortgage rates since late 2000.

The implications extend far beyond the housing market alone. The sharp rise in rates stands to impact the stock market, economic growth, and investor sentiment through various channels.

For stock investors, higher mortgage rates pose risks of slower economic growth and falling profits for rate-sensitive sectors. Housing is a major component of GDP, so a pullback in home sales and construction activity would diminish economic output.

Slower home sales also mean less revenue for homebuilders, real estate brokers, mortgage lenders, and home furnishing retailers. With housing accounting for 15-18% of economic activity, associated industries make up a sizable chunk of the stock market.

A housing slowdown would likely hit sectors such as homebuilders, building materials, home improvement retailers, and home furnishing companies the hardest. Financial stocks could also face challenges as mortgage origination and refinancing drop off.

Broader economic weakness resulting from reduced consumer spending power would likely spillover to impact earnings across a wide swath of companies and market sectors. Investors may rotate to more defensive stocks if growth concerns escalate.

Higher rates also signal tightening financial conditions, which historically leads to increased stock market volatility and investor unease. Between inflation cutting into incomes and higher debt servicing costs, consumers have less discretionary income to sustain spending.

Reduced consumer spending has a knock-on effect of slowing economic growth. If rate hikes intended to fight inflation go too far, it raises the specter of an economic contraction or recession down the line.

For bond investors, rising rates eat into prices of existing fixed income securities. Bonds become less attractive compared to newly issued debt paying higher yields. Investors may need to explore options like floating rate bonds and shorter duration to mitigate rate impacts.

Rate-sensitive assets that did well in recent years as rates fell may come under pressure. Real estate, utilities, long-duration bonds, and growth stocks with high valuations are more negatively affected by rising rate environments.

Meanwhile, cash becomes comparatively more attractive as yields on savings accounts and money market funds tick higher. Investors may turn to cash while awaiting clarity on inflation and rates.

The Fed has emphasized its commitment to bringing inflation down even as growth takes a hit. That points to further rate hikes ahead, meaning mortgage rates likely have room to climb higher still.

Whether the Fed can orchestrate a soft landing remains to be seen. But until rate hikes moderate, investors should brace for market volatility and economic uncertainty.

Rising mortgage rates provide yet another reason for investors to ensure their portfolios are properly diversified. Maintaining some allocation to defensive stocks and income plays can help smooth out risk during periods of higher volatility.

While outlooks call for slower growth, staying invested with a long-term perspective is typically better than market timing. Patience and prudent risk management will be virtues for investors in navigating markets in the year ahead.

President Biden Makes History by Joining UAW Picket Line

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

On Tuesday, September 26, 2023, President Joe Biden made history by joining striking United Auto Workers (UAW) members on the picket line in Wayne County, Michigan. It was the first time a sitting president had ever joined an ongoing strike.

Biden’s visit came as the UAW was in its 12th day of a strike against General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis, demanding better wages, benefits, and job security. The strike had caused significant disruptions to the auto industry and had put thousands of workers out of work.

Despite the risks, Biden was determined to show his support for the UAW and for working families. He arrived at the picket line early in the morning and was greeted by cheers and applause from the strikers.

“It’s an honor to be here with you today,” Biden said to the strikers. “You are fighting for the middle class. You are fighting for the soul of this nation.”

Biden went on to praise the UAW for its long history of fighting for the rights of workers and their families. He also pledged his support for the union and said that he would continue to work to create an economy that works for everyone.

“I want to be clear: I stand with the UAW,” Biden said. “I will always stand with workers who are fighting for a fair deal.”

Biden’s visit to the picket line was a significant show of support for the UAW and for labor unions in general. It came at a time when unions are facing increasing attacks from corporations and anti-union politicians.

Biden’s visit was also a reminder of his commitment to working families. He has repeatedly said that he will fight to create an economy that works for everyone, not just the wealthy few.

Biden’s visit to the picket line could have a number of positive consequences for the UAW and for labor unions in general.

First, it could help to raise public awareness of the strike and the union’s demands. This could put pressure on the auto companies to settle the strike on the union’s terms.

Second, Biden’s visit could help to boost morale among the strikers. It could show them that they have the support of the president and that they are not alone in their fight.

Third, Biden’s visit could help to strengthen the labor movement as a whole. It could show that unions are still a powerful force and that they can win when they stand together.

Biden’s visit to the picket line was also significant for its historical implications. It was the first time a sitting president had ever joined an ongoing strike. This sent a powerful message that the president stands with working families and that he supports the right of workers to organize and bargain collectively.

Biden’s visit to the picket line was a courageous and important act. It showed that he is a president who is not afraid to stand up for working families, even when it is politically difficult.

The UAW strike is a critical test for Biden’s presidency. If the union is able to win a fair contract, it will be a victory for working families and for the labor movement as a whole. It will also be a sign that Biden is delivering on his promise to create an economy that works for everyone.

The strike is also a test for the Biden administration’s commitment to industrial policy. Biden has repeatedly said that he wants to revitalize the American manufacturing sector. The UAW strike is an opportunity for Biden to show that he is serious about this commitment.

The Biden administration can support the UAW strike in a number of ways. First, it can put pressure on the auto companies to settle the strike on the union’s terms. Second, it can provide financial assistance to the strikers and their families. Third, it can use its regulatory authority to make it easier for workers to organize and bargain collectively.

The UAW strike is a critical moment for working families and for the labor movement. The outcome of the strike will have a major impact on the future of the American economy. Biden’s visit to the picket line was a significant show of support for the UAW and for working families. It is now up to the Biden administration to follow through on its promises and to ensure that the UAW strike is a victory for working families.

Looming Government Shutdown Tests McCarthy’s Leadership

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Washington braces for its first potential government shutdown under House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s speakership as the fiscal year-end nears on September 30. The high-stakes funding clash represents an early test of McCarthy’s ability to lead a fractious Republican majority.

The face-off caps months of growing friction between McCarthy and the hardline House Freedom Caucus that helped install him as Speaker in January. To gain their votes, McCarthy pledged he would not advance spending bills without “majority of the majority” Republican backing.

That concession has now put McCarthy in a bind as the shutdown deadline approaches without a funding agreement in place. The Freedom Caucus is demanding McCarthy leverage the must-pass spending legislation to cut budgets and advance conservative policies, like defunding the FBI.

However, McCarthy knows Senate Democrats would never accept such ideological provisions. And a prolonged government shutdown could batter the fragile economy while eroding public faith in governance competence.

With only days remaining, McCarthy weighs risky options without easy solutions. Scheduling a vote on a stripped-down continuing resolution to temporarily extend current funding would break his promise to the Freedom Caucus.

Yet refusing to hold a vote risks blame for an unpopular shutdown. McCarthy also considers putting a Senate-passed funding bill to a House floor vote, prompting Freedom Caucus warnings that doing so would incite calls for his ouster.

The Speaker urgently needs to unify Republicans behind a way forward. But McCarthy must balance the Freedom Caucus’ demands against the consequences of failing to avert a shutdown.

Navigating these pressures will test McCarthy’s ability to govern a narrow 222-seat majority. It will also gauge whether he can effectively steer the party into the 2024 elections amid internal divisions.

With only 18% of Americans supporting shutdowns over policy disputes according to polls, McCarthy likely wants to avoid a disruptive funding lapse. A 2013 closure lasting 16 days is estimated to have shaved 0.2-0.6% from economic growth that quarter.

From furloughing 800,000 federal workers to suspending services, even a short shutdown could batter public trust in leadership. The military’s over 1.3 million active duty members would see pay disrupted. National Parks could close, impacting over 297 million annual visitors.

The high-risk brinkmanship highlights the difficulty McCarthy faces satisfying the party’s warring moderate and Freedom Caucus wings. Finding a solution that keeps government open while saving face with hardliners will prove a true test of McCarthy’s political dexterity.

Past shutdowns under divided government have tended to end once public pressure mounted on the blamed party. While Republicans control the House, most fault would land on them for manufacturing a crisis.

Yet McCarthy cannot disregard the Freedom Caucus, whose backing enabled his ascension to power. The days ahead will reveal whether McCarthy has the savvy to extricate the GOP from a crisis partly of its own making.

McCarthy’s handling of the funding impasse will set the tone for his entire speakership. At stake is nothing less than his ability to govern, deliver on promises, and prevent self-inflicted wounds entering 2024.

Russian Export Ban May Push Crude Oil Higher

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Oil prices climbed over 1% Friday after Russia banned diesel and gasoil exports. The move aims to increase Russia’s domestic supply but reduces the global oil market.

West Texas Intermediate crude climbed back above $90 per barrel following the news. Brent futures also gained, topping $94. Energy analysts say the Russian ban will likely sustain upward pressure on oil prices near-term.

Russia is a leading diesel producer globally. How much the export halt affects US fuel prices depends on how long it remains in place, says Angie Gildea, KPMG’s head of energy. But any drop in total global oil supply without lower demand will lift prices.

The ban comes as US gas prices retreat from 2022 highs, now averaging $3.86 nationally. Diesel is around $4.58 per gallon. Diesel powers key transport like trucks and ships. The loss of Russian exports could spur further diesel spikes.

However, gas prices may keep easing for most of the US, says Tom Kloza of OPIS. Western states could see increases.

Kloza believes crude may rise $2 to $3 per barrel in the near-term. But gasoline margins are poised to shrink even if oil nears $100 again. The US transition to cheaper winter fuel could also limit price hikes.

Oil has increased steadily since summer as OPEC+ cuts output. Saudi Arabia and Russia also reduced production. More Wall Street analysts now predict $100 oil in 2023.

Goldman Sachs sees Brent potentially hitting $100 per barrel in the next 12 months. Sharper inventory declines are likely as OPEC supply falls but demand rises, says Goldman’s head of oil research.

The White House has criticized OPEC+ for the production cuts. US gasoline demand recently hit a seasonal record high over 9.5 million barrels per day. Jet fuel use is also rebounding towards pre-pandemic levels.

Strong demand, paired with reduced Russian oil exports, leaves the market more exposed to supply disruptions. Hurricane Ian showed how quickly price spikes can occur.

Take a moment to take a look at other energy companies covered by Noble Capital Markets Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim.

The Biden Administration plans to keep tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into 2023 to restrain cost increases. But further export bans or output reductions could overwhelm these efforts.

While tighter global fuel supplies might not directly translate to the US, Russia’s latest move signals volatility will persist. Energy prices remain sensitive to supply and demand shifts.

More export cuts could accelerate oil’s return to triple-digits. But for US drivers, the road ahead on gas costs seems mixed. Falling margins and seasonal shifts could limit prices, but risks linger.

Fed Keeping Rates Higher Despite Pausing Hikes For Now

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but projected keeping them at historically high levels into 2024 and 2025 to ensure inflation continues falling from four-decade highs.

The Fed held its benchmark rate steady in a target range of 5.25-5.5% following four straight 0.75 percentage point hikes earlier this year. But officials forecast rates potentially peaking around 5.6% by year-end before only gradually declining to 5.1% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025.

This extended timeframe for higher rates contrasts with prior projections for more significant cuts starting next year. The outlook underscores the Fed’s intent to keep monetary policy restrictive until inflation shows clearer and more persistent signs of cooling toward its 2% target.

“We still have some ways to go,” said Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a press conference, explaining why rates must remain elevated amid still-uncertain inflation risks. He noted the Fed has hiked rates to restrictive levels more rapidly than any period in modern history.

The Fed tweaked its economic forecasts slightly higher but remains cautious on additional tightening until more data arrives. The latest projections foresee economic growth slowing to 1.5% next year with unemployment ticking up to 4.1%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is expected to fall from 4.9% currently to 2.6% by late 2023. But officials emphasized inflation remains “elevated” and “unacceptably high” despite moderating from 40-year highs earlier this year.

Consumer prices rose 8.3% in August on an annual basis, down from the 9.1% peak in June but well above the Fed’s 2% comfort zone. Further cooling is needed before the Fed can declare victory in its battle against inflation.

The central bank is proceeding carefully, pausing rate hikes to assess the cumulative impact of its rapid tightening this year while weighing risks. Additional increases are likely but the Fed emphasized future moves are data-dependent.

“In coming months policy will depend on the incoming data and evolving outlook for the economy,” Powell said. “At some point it will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases” as the Fed approaches peak rates.

For now, the Fed appears poised to hold rates around current levels absent a dramatic deterioration in inflation. Keeping rates higher for longer indicates the Fed’s determination to avoid loosening prematurely before prices are fully under control.

Powell has reiterated the Fed is willing to overtighten to avoid mistakes of the 1970s and see inflation fully tamed. Officials continue weighing risks between high inflation and slower economic growth.

“Restoring price stability while achieving a relatively modest increase in unemployment and a soft landing will be challenging,” Powell conceded. “No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession.”

Nonetheless, the Fed chief expressed optimism that a severe downturn can still be avoided amid resilient household and business spending. The labor market also remains strong with unemployment at 3.7%.

But the housing market continues to soften under the weight of higher rates, a key channel through which Fed tightening slows the economy. And risks remain tilted to the downside until inflation demonstrably falls closer to target.

For markets, clarity that rates will stay elevated through 2024 reduces uncertainty. Stocks bounced around after the Fed’s announcement as investors processed the guidance. The path forward depends on incoming data, but the Fed appears determined to keep rates higher for longer.

The Perfect Storm Brewing in US Housing

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

A perfect storm is brewing in the US housing market. Mortgage rates have surged above 7% just as millennials, the largest generation, reach peak homebuying age. This collision of rising interest rates and unmet demand is causing substantial disruption, as seen in the sharp decline in home sales, cautious builders and a looming affordability crisis that threatens the broader economy.

Mortgage rates have taken off as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to fight inflation. The average 30-year fixed rate recently hit 7.18%, according to Freddie Mac, the highest level since 2001. This has severely hampered housing affordability and demand. Fannie Mae, the mortgage finance giant, forecasts total home sales will drop to 4.8 million this year, the slowest pace since 2011 when the housing market was still recovering from the Great Recession.

Fannie Mae expects sales to struggle through 2024 as rates remain elevated. It predicts the US economy will enter a recession in early 2024, further dragging down the housing market. Home prices are also likely to drop as high rates impede sales. This could hurt consumer confidence and discretionary spending, considering the critical role housing plays in household wealth.

Higher rates have pumped up monthly mortgage payments and made homes less affordable. Take a $500,000 home purchased with a 20% down payment. At a 2.86% mortgage rate two years ago, the monthly payment would have been $1,656. With rates now at 7.18%, that same home has a monthly cost of $3,077, according to calculations by Axios. That 87% payment surge makes purchasing unattainable for many buyers.

These affordability challenges are hitting just as millennials reach peak homebuying age. The largest cohorts of this generation were born in the late 1980s and early 1990s, making them between 32 and 34 years old today. That’s when marriage, childbearing and demand for living space typically accelerate.

However, homebuilders have been reluctant to significantly ramp up construction with rates so high. Housing starts experienced a significant decline of 11.3% in August, according to Census Bureau data, driven by a decline in apartment buildings. Single-family starts dipped 4.3% to an annual pace of 941,000, 16% below the average from mid-2020 to mid-2022. Homebuilder sentiment has also plunged, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Take a look at Orion Group Holdings Inc., a leading specialty construction company servicing the infrastructure, industrial and building sectors.

This pullback in new construction comes even as there is strong interest from millennials and other buyers. Though mortgage rates moderated the overheated housing market earlier this year, national home prices remain just below their all-time highs, up 13.5% from two years ago, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.

Some analysts say the only solution is to significantly boost supply. But that seems unlikely with builders cautious and financing costs high. The housing crisis has no quick fix and will continue to be an anchor on the broader economy. Millennials coming of age and mortgage rates spiraling upwards have sparked a perfect storm, broken the housing market, and darkened the country’s economic outlook.