Money Supply Numbers Show the Fed is Making Headway
Money Supply, as reported by the Federal Reserve, fell by the largest amount ever recorded. This significant year-on-year drop shows the Fed’s tight monetary policy at work. However, despite the dramatic decline of cash available to consumers, the pace of increase that led up to the twelve-month period was even more dramatic. This indicates the Fed is not even close to finished draining liquidity from the economy, which serves to push up the cost of money (interest rates).
What is M2, how does it impact spending, and how much lower can the money supply go to reach “normal”? Let’s explore.
The M2 Report
Data for January, released on February 28th, showed a negative growth rate of 1.7% versus a year ago. This is both the biggest yearly decline and also the first time ever it has contracted in consecutive months. The monthly rate of change has been falling consistently since mid-2021. As indicated on the chart below, it follows a historic peak of 27% growth in February 2021.
Money Supply is a measure of household liquidity, it includes household cash on hand, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. The level had been growing slowly, keeping pace with low inflation until 2020. In response to pandemic-related economic risks, the economy was then flooded with cash by the Fed. Like any other oversupply, this oversupply causes money’s value to decline – a recipe for inflation.
For almost a year, the Fed has been draining liquidity from the US economy. This includes the well-publicized retargeting of overnight bank lending rates which are accomplished by contracting the aggregate amount of cash banks hold in reserves. Draining liquidity also includes quantitative tightening by the Fed, not repurchasing maturing securities.
The Fed’s tightening is having an impact on savings and cash available to households. Although the consumer is still spending, the decline in savings makes the spending pace unsustainable. Unrelated to M2, but as important, is that consumer borrowing is up, and this, too, can not stay on an upward trajectory forever. The Fed’s actions have a lag time, but it is becoming obvious that there will come a point when consumers will need to change their spending habits downward. This is how inflation is expected to be reeled in, but it isn’t certain whether it is being reeled in at a pace where the Fed can succeed at reaching the 2% inflation rate goal – particularly in light of the last inflation number actually being higher than the previous month.
Where We Are Now
Although M2 growth rates declined at a pace shattering all records, levels are still abnormally high. To put numbers on it, Money Supply remains 39% higher than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, just three years ago. In other words, the amount of liquidity in the economy is still significant, and too much money chasing too few goods and services lead to rising prices.
The current M2 of $21.27 trillion is nearly $6 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic level. At this point, money in the economy has surpassed real gross domestic product levels, a momentous shift that first happened in 2020 when the Fed flooded the economy with cash as the pandemic hit.
All of this indicates the Fed is actually being patient despite the dramatic tightening over the past year. It also makes it clear that they are not done mopping up the Covid-19 monetary mess. And investors shouldn’t be surprised to see their resolve continue until balances are more in-line with moderate inflation rates.
Take Away
The still elevated M2, despite its record yearly decline, is feeding inflation. The Fed is making headway removing fuel to the inflation fire.
However, consumers that historically have continued to spend at near unchanged levels, even when their disposable income no longer supports it, do eventually adjust. When this adjustment occurs, economic activity will slow. That’s when the Fed will be on the path to winning its inflation fight. Then perhaps we may actually get a pivot in monetary policy.
ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Challenging Current Environment, But Future Remains Bright. In spite of a challenging 2022, ACCO delivered 1% comparable sales growth in 2022 as the Company continued to execute its strategic transformation, including expanding product categories, broadening geographic reach, and bringing innovative new consumer-centric products to market. This enabled ACCO to achieve market share gains with many of its brands.
Taking Action. For 2023, management’s top priority is to restore the margin profile through incremental pricing actions implemented in January of 2023, the restructuring initiatives undertaken during the fourth quarter of 2022, and the additional productivity programs that will be implemented in 2023. We expect these actions will drive margin expansion and profit growth for the full year of 2023.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q22 Results. FAT Brands reported 4Q22 revenue of $103.8 million, up 39.9% y-o-y from $74.2 million in the year ago quarter. The increased revenue reflects the 2021 acquisitions and ongoing recovery from COVID impacts as SSS was up 2.7%. FAT reported adjusted EBITDA of $19.6 million in the quarter, down from $24.6 million in 3Q22. Net loss for the quarter was $70.8 million, or a loss of $4.29 per share, compared to a net loss of $19.6 million, or a loss of $1.38 per share, last year. We had projected revenue of $104.8 million and a net loss of $16.5 million, or a loss of $0.99 per share.
One-Time Items Impact. The quarter’s results were impacted by a number of one-time non-cash charges, including a $16.1 million non-cash reserve on employee retention credits, a $14 million non-cash trademark impairment charge, and a $20.4 million valuation allowance.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4Q Results. ACCO Brands posted net sales of $499.4 million, a decrease of 12.4% from the prior year’s $570.3 million. Operating income for the quarter was at $35.6 million versus $63.6 million the prior year due to lower sales volumes and higher inflation. Net income was reported at $18.8 million, or $0.20 per diluted share, compared to $53.5 million, or $0.55/sh, last year. We estimated revenue of $510.0 million, operating income of $47 million, net income of $26 million, and EPS of $0.28.
Revenue Segments. North America saw a decrease in sales to $225.7 million versus $271.0 million the prior year with operating income of $8.9 million versus $34.2 million a year ago. EMEA sales were $156.0 million versus $187.9 million the year prior, with operating income of $12.7 million versus $21.6 million. Lastly, International had sales of $117.7 million, an increase from last year’s $111.4 million, with operating income of $22.7 million, an increase over last year’s $20.9 million.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
LOS ANGELES, Feb. 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: FAT) (“FAT Brands” or the “Company”) today reported fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results for the fiscal year ended December 25, 2022.
Andy Wiederhorn, President and CEO of FAT Brands, commented, “The fourth quarter marked yet another strong performance for FAT Brands, as evidenced by our robust unit development and profitable revenue growth. After a very active acquisition strategy in 2021, I am particularly pleased with the momentum of our organic growth strategy during 2022.”
“With over 140 store openings during 2022, we achieved a new milestone for FAT Brands, including 44 that opened in the fourth quarter. We plan to continue this robust unit growth with between 150 and 175 units slated to open in 2023. We are seeing strong new franchisee activity as well as continued demand from existing franchise partners to develop other brands within our portfolio, which is very encouraging as we look beyond our current unit development pipeline of over 1,000 locations representing 60% EBITDA growth over the next several years.”
“We are extremely impressed with how our 2021 acquisitions have seamlessly fit into our portfolio and the demand we are experiencing for them from our franchisee base. In addition to our organic growth momentum, we will lean into the expansion of our high-growth brands, particularly our sports lodge category, and continue to expand our factory business.”
“We also continue to work on reducing our cost of capital and are pursuing strategies to significantly reduce our leverage ratio over the next 24 to 36 months.”
Fiscal FourthQuarter 2022Highlights
Total revenue improved 39.9% to $103.8 million compared to $74.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2021
System-wide sales growth of 22.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year quarter
Year-to-date system-wide same-store sales growth of 2.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year
44 new store openings during the fourth quarter of 2022 and over 140 openings during the year
Net loss of $70.8 million, or $4.29 per diluted share, compared to $19.6 million, or $1.38 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2021
Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $19.6 million compared to $10.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2021
Adjusted net loss(1) of $43.0 million, or $2.60 per diluted share, compared to $16.5 million, or $1.16 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2021
Fiscal Year 2022 Highlights
Total revenue increased 242.5% to $407.2 million compared to $118.9 million in 2021
System-wide sales growth of 108.0% compared to 2021
Year-to-date system-wide same-store sales growth of 6.0% in 2022 compared to 2021
Over 140 new store openings during 2022
Net loss of $126.2 million, or $7.66 per diluted share, compared to $31.6 million, or $2.15 per diluted share, in 2021
Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $88.8 million compared to $21.1 million 2021
Adjusted net loss(1) of $80.9 million, or $4.91 per diluted share, compared to $20.6 million, or $1.41 per diluted share, in 2021
(1) EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss are non-GAAP measures defined below, under “Non-GAAP Measures”. Reconciliation of GAAP net loss to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss are included in the accompanying financial tables.
Summary of Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results
Total revenue increased $29.6 million, or 39.9%, in the fourth quarter of 2022, to $103.8 million compared to $74.2 million in the same period of 2021. The increase reflects revenue from the acquisition of Twin Peaks in October 2021, the acquisitions of Fazoli’s and Native Grill & Wings in December 2021 (collectively, the “2021 Acquisitions”) and the continuing recovery from the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on royalties from restaurant sales.
Costs and expenses increased $59.5 million, or 77.3%, in the fourth quarter of 2022 to $136.4 million compared to $77.0 million in the same period in the prior year, primarily due to the 2021 Acquisitions.
General and administrative expense increased $17.6 million, or 81.4%, in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in the prior year, primarily due to the 2021 Acquisitions, increased compensation costs, professional fees related to pending litigation and government investigations, and travel, reflecting the significant expansion of the organization.
Cost of restaurant and factory revenues totaled $61.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 and was related to the operations of the company-owned restaurant locations and our dough factory associated with the 2021 Acquisitions.
Depreciation and amortization increased $1.6 million, or 30.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in the prior year, primarily due to depreciation of company-owned restaurant property and equipment and amortizing intangible assets related to the 2021 Acquisitions.
Refranchising losses in the fourth quarter of 2022 were $3.1 million and were comprised of restaurant costs and expenses, net of food sales. Refranchising losses in the fourth quarter of 2021 were $1.0 million and were comprised of $2.1 million restaurant operating costs, net of food sales, partially offset by $1.1 million in net gains related to refranchised restaurants.
Advertising expenses increased $1.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the prior year period. These expenses vary in relation to advertising revenues and reflect advertising expenses related to the 2021 Acquisitions and the increase in customer activity as the recovery from COVID continues.
Total other expense, net for the fourth quarters of 2022 and 2021 was $24.2 million and $17.1 million, respectively, primarily comprised of net interest expense of $25.6 million and $16.4 million, respectively.
Adjusted net loss was $43.0 million, or $2.60 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $16.5 million, or $1.16 per diluted share, in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Key Financial Definitions
New store openings – The number of new store openings reflects the number of stores opened during a particular reporting period. The total number of new stores per reporting period and the timing of stores openings has, and will continue to have, an impact on our results.
Same-store sales growth – Same-store sales growth reflects the change in year-over-year sales for the comparable store base, which we define as the number of stores open and in the FAT Brands system for at least one full fiscal year. For stores that were temporarily closed, sales in the current and prior period are adjusted accordingly. Given our focused marketing efforts and public excitement surrounding each opening, new stores often experience an initial start-up period with considerably higher than average sales volumes, which subsequently decrease to stabilized levels after three to six months. Additionally, when we acquire a brand, it may take several months to integrate fully each location of said brand into the FAT Brands platform. Thus, we do not include stores in the comparable base until they have been open and in the FAT Brands system for at least one full fiscal year. For 2022, the comparable store base does not include concepts acquired during the fourth quarter of 2021.
System-wide sales growth – System wide sales growth reflects the percentage change in sales in any given fiscal period compared to the prior fiscal period for all stores in that brand only when the brand is owned by FAT Brands. Because of acquisitions, new store openings and store closures, the stores open throughout both fiscal periods being compared may be different from period to period.
Conference Call and Webcast
FAT Brands will host a conference call and webcast to discuss its fiscal fourth quarter 2022 financial results today at 5:00 PM ET. Hosting the conference call and webcast will be Andy Wiederhorn, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ken Kuick, Chief Financial Officer.
The conference call can be accessed live over the phone by dialing 1-877-704-4453 from the U.S. or 1-201-389-0920 internationally. A replay will be available after the call until Wednesday, March 1, 2023, and can be accessed by dialing 1-844-512-2921 from the U.S. or 1-412-317-6671 internationally. The passcode is 13735781. The webcast will be available at www.fatbrands.com under the “Investors” section and will be archived on the site shortly after the call has concluded.
About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses and franchises and owns approximately 2,300 units worldwide. For more information, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements relating to the future financial and operating results of the Company, estimates of future EBITDA, the timing and performance of new store openings, future reductions in cost of capital and leverage ratio, our ability to conduct future accretive acquisitions, our pipeline of new store locations, and the recovery of our business from the COVID-19 pandemic. Forward-looking statements generally use words such as “expect,” “foresee,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “project,” “should,” “estimate,” “will,” “plans,” “forecast,” and similar expressions, and reflect our expectations concerning the future. Forward-looking statements are subject to significant business, economic and competitive risks, uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are difficult to predict and beyond our control, which could cause our actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. We refer you to the documents that we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, such as our reports on Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, for a discussion of these and other risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our current expectations and from the forward-looking statements contained in this press release. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this press release.
Non-GAAP Measures (Unaudited)
This press release includes the non-GAAP financial measures of EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss.
EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation and amortization. We use the term EBITDA, as opposed to income from operations, as it is widely used by analysts, investors, and other interested parties to evaluate companies in our industry. We believe that EBITDA is an appropriate measure of operating performance because it eliminates the impact of expenses that do not relate to business performance. EBITDA is not a measure of our financial performance or liquidity that is determined in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”), and should not be considered as an alternative to net income (loss) as a measure of financial performance or cash flows from operations as measures of liquidity, or any other performance measure derived in accordance with GAAP.
Adjusted EBITDA is defined as EBITDA (as defined above), excluding expenses related to acquisitions, refranchising gain or losses, impairment charges, and certain non-recurring or non-cash items that the Company does not believe directly reflect its core operations and may not be indicative of the Company’s recurring business operations.
Adjusted net loss is a supplemental measure of financial performance that is not required by or presented in accordance with GAAP. Adjusted net loss is defined as net loss plus the impact of adjustments and the tax effects of such adjustments. Adjusted net loss is presented because we believe it helps convey supplemental information to investors regarding our performance, excluding the impact of special items that affect the comparability of results in past quarters to expected results in future quarters. Adjusted net loss as presented may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies, and our presentation of adjusted net loss should not be construed as an inference that our future results will be unaffected by excluded or unusual items. Our management uses this non-GAAP financial measure to analyze changes in our underlying business from quarter to quarter based on comparable financial results.
Reconciliations of net loss presented in accordance with GAAP to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net loss are set forth in the tables below.
NEW ALBANY, Ohio, Feb. 22, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — CVG (NASDAQ: CVGI) will hold its quarterly conference call on Tuesday, March 7, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. ET, to discuss fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial results. CVG will issue a press release and presentation prior to the conference call.
Toll-free participants dial (888) 396-8049 using conference code 33489158. International participants dial (416) 764-8646 using conference code 33489158. This call is being webcast and can be accessed through the “Investors” section of CVG’s website at ir.cvgrp.com where it will be archived for one year.
A telephonic replay of the conference call will be available until March 21, 2023. To access the replay, toll-free callers can dial (877) 674-7070 using access code 489158.
About CVG
At CVG, we deliver real solutions to complex design, engineering and manufacturing problems while creating positive change for our customers, industries, and communities we serve. Information about the Company and its products is available on the internet at www.cvgrp.com.
Investor Relations Contact: Ross Collins or Stephen Poe Alpha IR Group [email protected]
Will AI Learn to Become a Better Entrepreneur than You?
Contemporary businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist with operations and compete in the marketplace. AI enables firms and entrepreneurs to make data-driven decisions and to quicken the data-gathering process. When creating strategy, buying, selling, and increasing marketplace discovery, firms need to ask: What is better, artificial or human intelligence?
A recent article from the Harvard Business Review, “Can AI Help You Sell?,” stated, “Better algorithms lead to better service and greater success.” The attributes of the successful entrepreneur, such as calculated risk taking, dealing with uncertainty, keen sense for market signals, and adjusting to marketplace changes might be a thing of the past. Can AI take the place of the human entrepreneur? Would sophisticated artificial intelligence be able to spot market prices better, adjust to expectations better, and steer production toward the needs of consumers better than a human?
In one of my classes this semester, students and I discussed the role of AI, deep machine learning, and natural language processing (NLP) in driving many of the decisions and operations a human would otherwise provide within the firm. Of course, half of the class felt that the integration of some level of AI into many firms’ operations and resource management is beneficial in creating a competitive advantage.
However, the other half felt using AI will inevitably disable humans’ function in the market economy, resulting in less and less individualism. In other words, the firm will be overrun by AI. We can see that even younger college students are on the fence about whether AI will eliminate humans’ function in the market economy. We concluded as a class that AI and machine learning have their promises and shortcomings.
After class, I started thinking about the digital world of entrepreneurship. E-commerce demands the use of AI to reach customers, sell goods, produce goods, and host exchange—in conjunction with a human entrepreneur, of course.
However, AI—machine learning or deep machine learning—could also be tasked with creating a business-based model, examining the data on customers’ needs, designing a web page, and creating ads. Could AI adjust to market action and react to market uncertainty like a human? The answer may be a resounding yes! So, could AI eliminate the human entrepreneur?
Algorithm-XLab explains deep machine learning as something that “allows computers to solve complex problems. These systems can even handle diverse masses of unstructured data set.” Algorithm-XLab compared deep learning with human learning favorably, stating, “While a human can easily lose concentration, and possibly make a mistake, a robot won’t.”
This statement by Algorithm-XLab challenges the idea that trial and error leads to greater market knowledge and better enables entrepreneurs to provide consumers with what they are willing to buy. The statement also portrays the marketplace as a process where people have perfect knowledge and an equilibrium point, and it implies that humans do not have specialized knowledge of time and place.
The use of AI and its tools of deep learning and language processing do have their benefits from a technical standpoint. AI can determine how to produce hula hoops better, but can it determine whether to produce them or devote energy elsewhere? If entrepreneurs discover market opportunities, they must weigh the advantages and disadvantages of their potential actions. Will AI have the same entrepreneurial foresight?
The acquisition of market knowledge can take humans years to acquire; AI is much faster at it than humans would be. For example, the Allen Institute for AI is “working on systems that can take science tests, which require a knowledge of unstated facts and common sense that humans develop over the course of their lives.” The ability to process unstated, scattered facts is precisely the kind of characteristic we attribute to entrepreneurs. Processes, changes, and choices characterize the operation of the market, and the entrepreneur is at the center of this market function.
There is no doubt that contemporary firms use deep learning for strategy, operations, logistics, sales, and record keeping for human resources (HR) decision-making, according to a Bain & Company article titled “HR’s New Digital Mandate.” While focused on HR, the digital mandate does lend itself to questioning the use of entrepreneurial thinking and strategy conducted within a firm. After AI has learned how to operate a firm using robotic process automation and NLP capacities to their maximum, might it outstrip the human natural entrepreneurial abilities?
AI is used in everyday life, such as self-checkout at the grocery store, online shopping, social media interaction, dating apps, and virtual doctor appointments. Product delivery, financing, and development services increasingly involve an AI-as-a-service component. AI as a service minimizes the costs of gathering and processing customer insights, something usually associated with a team of human minds projecting key performance indicators aligned with an organizational strategy.
The human entrepreneur has a competitive advantage insofar as handling ambiguous customer feedback and in effect creating an entrepreneurial response and delivering satisfaction. We seek to determine whether AI has replaced human energy in some areas of life. Can AI understand human uneasiness or dissatisfaction, or the subjectivity of value felt by the consumer? AI can produce hula hoops, but can it articulate plans and gather the resources needed to produce them in the first place?.
In what, if any, entrepreneurial functions can AI outperform the human entrepreneur? The human entrepreneur is willing to take risks, adjust to the needs of consumers, pick up price signals, and understand customer choices. Could the human entrepreneur soon become an extinct class? If so, would machine learning and natural processing AI understand the differences between free and highly regulated markets? If so, which would it prefer, or which would it create?
The ultimate sports lodgecontinues toperformat a high level, opening ninenew restaurantsand landingfive major development agreements
DALLAS, Feb. 13, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., parent company of Twin Peaks Restaurant and 16 other restaurant concepts, is pleased to announce another strong year for Twin Peaks. The leading sports lodge concept generated strong growth throughout 2022 in addition to landing top spots on several prestigious awards lists.
In total, the banner year saw Twin Peaks open nine new lodges, while also signing four new area development agreements (ADAs) to add 26 future lodges in the United States and one ADA in Mexico for an additional 32 lodges. These agreements are expected to allow the brand to surpass the monumental 100-restaurant milestone by spring of 2023.
“We’re proud of the work our teams put in to ensure that Twin Peaks stays at the forefront of the sports bar segment and the restaurant industry as a whole,” said CEO Joe Hummel, who was named one of the most influential restaurant CEOs by Nation’s Restaurant News in 2022.
Twin Peaks began 2022 with the opening of its third lodge in Mexico City and now has four locations south of the border. The brand enters 2023 with 95 locations across the United States and Mexico with an anticipated 18-20 additional restaurants opening in 2023 in Chattanooga, Tennessee; Greenwood, Indiana; Deer Valley, Arizona; Columbus, Ohio; Springfield, Missouri; as well as Daytona Beach and Jacksonville, Florida to begin the year.
The brand signed several domestic ADAs to expand its footprint, including eight locations across North Carolina with Music City Consulting, four locations in the Ohio River Valley with JEB Food Group and three restaurants in the Pittsburgh area with the Falcons Group. Twin Peaks also secured an agreement with Dos Montes Corp. to add seven locations in Chicago and its largest international ADA to date with its subsidiary, Operadora 2 Montes, for 32 lodges in Mexico.
Twin Peaks also scored a number of industry honors. It placed seventh in Nation’s Restaurant News’ “Top 10 Biggest Sports Bars” and ranked 107th among the publication’s “Top 500 Restaurant Chains.” Twin Peaks also earned additional recognition by being named to Entrepreneur’s “Top 500” list, Black Box’s “Top 5 Restaurant Brands,” and Restaurant Business’ “Top 500” list for 2022.
In addition to these accolades, Twin Peaks continues to level up the sports bar’s menu. Twin Peaks amplified its scratch-made kitchen in 2022 with new artisan Flatbreads, Crispy Mini Beef Tacos, a variety of Street Tacos made with in-house smoked meats, a hand-cut choice New York Strip Steak, and specially crafted dessert and shot pairings.
Twin Peaks wrapped up its banner year by joining several partners in local fundraising initiatives. From serving meals to those affected by Hurricane Ian in Florida to fundraising efforts to raise $10,000 for Warriors for Freedom in Oklahoma to various local toy drives and gifting Christmas trees to military families throughout the holidays, Twin Peaks staff gave its time and effort to help support those in need throughout the communities in which it operates.
Capping off the year was Twin Peaks’ partnership with two national nonprofit organizations. Twin Peaks supported the ALS Foundation with a systemwide campaign to raise $15,000 for the organization and hosted the Twin Peaks Annual Hero’s Golf Tournament that raised $100,000 for its military foundation, Tunnel to Towers.
As Twin Peaks looks forward to surpassing the 100-restaurant milestone, the award-winning brand also has more big things in store for 2023 with continued unit growth, exciting marketing promotions for Super Bowl Sunday and March Madness, and a focus on the continued evolution of its sports bar fare with the launch of its new craft cocktails and spirits menu. Guests can also expect an expansion of its premium barrel selects that include refined choices like Angel’s Envy and Stagg Jr. bourbon and Corazon Resposado Buffalo Trace tequila to go along with reimagined cocktails and a fresh batch of quality spirits.
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide.
About Twin Peaks
Founded in 2005 in the Dallas suburb of Lewisville, Twin Peaks now has nearly 100 locations in the US and Mexico. Twin Peaks is the ultimate sports lodge featuring made-from-scratch food and the coldest beer in the business surrounded by scenic views and the latest in high-definition TVs. At every Twin Peaks, guests are immediately welcomed by a friendly Twin Peaks Girl and served up a menu made for MVPs. From its smashed and seared to order burgers to its in-house smoked brisket, pork and wings, guests can expect menu items capable of satisfying every appetite. To learn more about franchise opportunities, visit twinpeaksfranchise.com. For more information, visit twinpeaksrestaurant.com.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements relating to the timing and performance of new store openings and growth in same-store sales. Forward-looking statements reflect expectations of management concerning the future and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive risks, uncertainties and contingencies, including but not limited to uncertainties surrounding the severity, duration and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These factors are difficult to predict and beyond our control, and could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. We refer you to the documents that are filed from time to time by FAT Brands Inc. with the Securities and Exchange Commission, such as its reports on Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, for a discussion of these and other factors. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this press release.
MEDIA CONTACT: Erin Mandzik, FAT Brands [email protected] 860-212-6509
Global Restaurant FranchisingCompanyBuilds Upon 1,000 Unit Pipeline
LOS ANGELES, Feb. 06, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands Inc., a leading global franchising company that owns a number of iconic restaurant brands, including Johnny Rockets, Fatburger, Round Table Pizza, Twin Peaks, Fazoli’s and 12 other concepts, announces it has experienced a historic year of growth, opening 142 new stores in 2022 and adding a total of 362 stores to its development pipeline which spans 29 states and 17 countries.
Leading the way in new store development amongst FAT Brands’ concepts was Fatburger and Buffalo’s Express with 86 stores, Fazoli’s with 61, Round Table Pizza with 56, and Twin Peaks with 50. Noteworthy franchise deals included a combined 80-store development agreement for 40 Fatburger and Buffalo’s Express locations and 40 Round Table Pizza restaurants in the state of Texas, a 32-store agreement for Twin Peaks in Mexico, and a10-store agreement for Johnny Rockets in Israel.
Other strategic deals included 10 Marble Slab Creamery locations in Egypt and a nine-store development deal for Fazoli’s in Phoenix, AZ. The record-breaking development activity by the company will also bring its iconic portfolio to highly anticipated areas, such as Fatburger arriving in Florida, Puerto Rico and Atlanta, GA, Fazoli’s landing in Louisiana and Dallas, TX, and Twin Peaks growing its presence in Chicago, IL.
“We are extremely proud of our organic growth and the performance of our team in 2022,” said Taylor Wiederhorn, Chief Development Officer of FAT Brands. “Franchisee interest was at an all-time high from both new and existing franchisees, which speaks volumes to our robust portfolio of brands that continue to deliver strong same-store sales and attract new fans around the globe. This year, we will remain focused on converting our over 1,000-unit pipeline into new stores, approximately 175 of which are set to open in 2023, along with continuing to fuel our long-term growth with additional development deals.”
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide.
Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements relating to the timing and performance of new store openings, area development agreements, and growth in same-store sales. Forward-looking statements reflect expectations of FAT Brands Inc. (“we”, “our” or the “Company”) concerning the future and are subject to significant business, economic and competitive risks, uncertainties and contingencies, including but not limited to uncertainties surrounding the severity, duration and effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These factors are difficult to predict and beyond our control, and could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such forward-looking statements. We refer you to the documents that we file from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, such as our reports on Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and Form 8-K, for a discussion of these and other factors. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this press release.
Newegg Commerce, Inc. (NASDAQ: NEGG), founded in 2001 and based in the City of Industry, Calif., near Los Angeles, is a leading global online retailer for PC hardware, consumer electronics, gaming peripherals, home appliances, automotive and lifestyle technology. Newegg also serves businesses’ e-commerce needs with marketing, supply chain and technical solutions in a single platform. For more information, please visit Newegg.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We believe Newegg has a platform that is positioned to benefit from a fast-growing e-commerce vertical, namely, electronics. The company’s platforms serve both B2B and B2C customers on an international scale, reaching more than 20 countries. Moreover, the company has additional growth opportunities through expansion into other e-commerce verticals.
Growing e-commerce market. The global retail e-commerce market is expected to grow at 13.5% CAGR from 2019-2026. Notably, the North American technology e-commerce market, Newegg’s area of focus, is expected to grow even faster, at 25% CAGR over the same period.
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For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Beats expectations. The company reported fiscal Q2 revenue of $897.9 million and adj. EBITDA of $131.4 million. Revenue was in line with our estimate of $897.1 million and adj. EBITDA beat our estimate of $112.2 million million by 17.1%.
Better than expected EBITDA margins. The second quarter adj. EBITDA margin was 14.6%, which beat our estimate of 12.5%. The driver of improved EBITDA margins was the strong performance from the Gourmet Food & Gift Baskets segment. The segment beat our adj. EBITDA estimate and adj. EBITDA margin estimate by 18.8% and 15%, respectively.The stronger than expected adj. EBITDA figure was driven by cost cutting initiatives and declining input costs. Management anticipates that adj. EBITDA margins will further improve in the second half of fiscal 2023.
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FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Note Sale. In a January 31st 8-K filing, FAT Brands reported that on January 25, 2023, the Company completed the sale of an aggregate principal amount of $40 million of Series 2022-1 6.00% Fixed Rate Senior Secured Notes, Class A-2 issued by its special purpose, wholly-owned subsidiary, FAT Brands GFG Royalty I, LLC. The Class A-2 Notes were offered and sold to qualified institutional buyers.
Terms. Scheduled payments of principal and interest on the Notes are required to be made on a quarterly basis, in each case from amounts that are available for payment thereon under the Base Indenture. The legal final maturity of the Notes is July 22, 2051, but it is anticipated that, unless earlier prepaid to the extent permitted under the Indenture, the Notes will be repaid on July 25, 2023. If the Notes are not repaid or refinanced by the anticipated call date, additional interest equal to 1.0% per annum will accrue on each tranche of Notes. If the Notes have not been repaid or refinanced the by July 25, 2026, the additional interest accruing on the Class A-2 Notes will increase to a rate of 2.5% per annum.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Streamlined Leadership. We had an opportunity to speak with Vera Bradley management about the recently announced streamlined corporate structure designed to drive cost savings, add more focus on marketing and merchandising, and position the Company to deliver steady top- and bottom-line growth. Ultimately, the new structure should produce annualized savings of over $2 million, on top of the $25 million of cost reductions previously identified.
Specifics. As part of the new structure, the Company eliminated the positions of Vera Bradley Brand President, Chief Creative Officer, and Chief Revenue Officer. The Company will add a position of Senior Vice President of Merchandising and Design for Vera Bradley. In addition, Alison Hiatt has joined the Company as Chief Marketing Officer to oversee digital marketing, customer data, and ecommerce. Ms. Hiatt is an accomplished consumer and marketing leader with a versatile and deep track record of success for several industry-leading brands.
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