Category: Consumer

Amazon Bets Big on AI Startup to Advance Generative Tech

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

E-commerce titan Amazon is making a huge investment into artificial intelligence startup Anthropic, injecting up to $4 billion into the budding firm. The massive funding underscores Amazon’s ambitions to be a leader in next-generation AI capabilities.

Anthropic is a two-year old startup launched by former executives from AI lab OpenAI. The company recently introduced its new chatbot called Claude, designed to converse naturally with humans on a range of topics.

While Claude has similarities to OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT, Anthropic aims to take natural language AI to the next level. Amazon’s investment signals its belief in Anthropic’s potential to pioneer groundbreaking generative AI.

Generative AI refers to AI systems that can generate new content like text, images, or video based on data they are trained on. The technology has exploded in popularity thanks to ChatGPT and image generator DALL-E 2, sparking immense interest from Big Tech.

Amazon is positioning itself to capitalize on this surging interest in generative AI. As part of the deal, Amazon Web Services will become Anthropic’s primary cloud platform for developing and delivering its AI services.

The startup will also let AWS customers access exclusive features to customize and fine-tune its AI models. This tight integration gives Amazon a competitive edge by baking Anthropic’s leading AI into its cloud offerings.

Additionally, Amazon will provide custom semiconductors to turbocharge training for Anthropic’s foundational AI models. These chips aim to challenged Nvidia’s dominance in supplying GPUs for AI workloads.

With its end-to-end AI capabilities across hardware, cloud services and applications, Amazon aims to be the go-to AI provider. The Anthropic investment caps off a flurry of activity from Amazon to own the AI future.

Recently, Amazon unveiled Alexa Voice, AI-generated voice assistant. The company also launched Amazon Bedrock, a service enabling companies to easily build custom AI tools using Amazon’s machine learning models.

And Amazon Web Services already offers robust AI services like image recognition, language processing, and data analytics to business clients. Anthropic’s generative smarts will augment these solutions.

The race to lead in AI accelerated after Microsoft’s multi-billion investment into ChatGPT creator OpenAI in January. Google, Meta and others have since poured billions into AI startups to not get left behind.

Anthropic has already raised funding from top tier backers like Google’s VC arm and Salesforce Ventures. But Amazon’s monster investment catapults the startup into an elite group of AI startups tapping into Big Tech’s cash reserves.

The deal grants Amazon a minority stake in the startup, suggesting further collaborations ahead. With Claude 2 generating buzz, Anthropic’s next-gen AI technology and Amazon’s vast resources could be a potent combination.

For Amazon, owning a piece of a promising AI startup hedges its bets should generative AI disrupt major industries. And if advanced chatbots like Claude reshape how customers interact with businesses, Amazon is making sure it has skin in the game.

The e-commerce behemoth’s latest Silicon Valley splash cements its position as an aggressive AI player not content following others. If Amazon’s bet on Anthropic pays off, it may pay dividends in making Amazon a go-to enterprise AI powerhouse.

The $68.7B Blockbuster Microsoft-Activision Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Microsoft’s proposed $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard has the potential to completely transform the gaming landscape. While regulators have scrutinized the deal over competition concerns, the merger could bring tremendous benefits to Microsoft, Activision, and the broader video game industry.

For Microsoft, owning Activision Blizzard will expand its catalog of exclusive titles and strengthen its position in the rapidly growing cloud and mobile gaming markets. Activision’s stable of popular franchises, including Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and Overwatch, will give Microsoft’s Xbox platform exclusive access to some of the most iconic brands in gaming.

The deal also bolsters Microsoft’s Game Pass subscription service. By adding Activision games into the Game Pass library, Microsoft could attract millions of new subscribers. Game Pass now has over 25 million subscribers, and Activision’s titles provide strong incentive for even more gamers to sign up.

Microsoft also aims to leverage Activision’s titles to boost its cloud gaming efforts. Cloud gaming allows players to stream games over the internet, without needing expensive hardware. Microsoft’s Project xCloud trails behind competitors, but owning rights to Activision’s diverse lineup of games could help close the gap with rivals.

For Activision Blizzard, the deal provides much-needed stability after a rocky couple of years. The company faced intense backlash over allegations of sexual harassment and discrimination against female employees. Activision also lost favor with gamers over accusations of declining game quality. Joining forces with Microsoft gives Activision renewed focus along with the resources to potentially revitalize its culture and game development efforts.

Take a moment to take a look at Motorsport Games Inc., an award-winning esports video game developer and publisher for racing fans and gamers around the globe.

The merger can also reinvigorate Activision’s floundering esports leagues. Microsoft brings immense expertise in managing leagues like the NBA 2K League. With dedicated support, Activision’s Overwatch League and Call of Duty League can get back on track to engage fans.

More broadly, the deal validates the tremendous growth potential of the $200 billion gaming market. Investors originally balked at the $68.7 billion price tag, which was nearly a 50% premium over Activision’s market value. However, Microsoft likely sees this as a long-term investment, as analysts forecast the gaming sector to expand to over $300 billion by 2027.

While there are understandable concerns about one company gaining so much influence, Microsoft has committed to keeping Activision games available across multiple platforms. The tech giant also faces strong incentives to continue investing in blockbuster franchises like Call of Duty rather than making them Xbox exclusives.

After months in limbo, the deal now appears to be back on track for completion in late 2023 or early 2024. Assuming it passes the final regulatory hurdles, this acquisition has the scope to reshape gaming for players and developers alike. By bringing together two titans of the industry, the new Microsoft-Activision partnership could help unlock gaming’s true potential.

Brightline Connects Florida’s Finance Hubs with New Train Line

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Brightline, the private passenger rail service in Florida, has began operating its high speed train lines to connect South Florida to Orlando today. This new route will link two major finance hubs in the state and make travel between them faster and easier.

Brightline’s trains have currently been running between Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach. The expansion to Orlando, which opened on September 22, 2023, stretches the service across the state and connects it to one of Florida’s largest business and tourism centers.

According to Brightline’s president Patrick Goddard, the new route “will transform Central Florida into a connected region” and link its economy even closer with South Florida’s. This enhanced connectivity between the region’s financial sectors will likely lead to increased business deals, partnerships, and investment.

In particular, the new Brightline connection will simplify travel between Palm Beach County and Orlando. Palm Beach is home to a cluster of hedge funds, private equity firms, and other financial companies. Orlando similarly has a thriving financial industry, with investment firms, banks, and financial technology companies based in the metro area.

With a Brightline station at Orlando International Airport, it is now easier than ever for finance professionals to commute between the two cities for meetings and conferences. This will allow greater collaboration within Florida’s finance community.

One major finance event that will benefit is NobleCon19, an investor conference focusing on emerging growth companies. NobleCon19 is scheduled for December 3-5, 2023 in Boca Raton, located in Palm Beach County. The conference attracts finance experts from across the country, including professionals based in the Orlando area.

Once the new Brightline route opened, Orlando-based investors, analysts, and executives interested in attending NobleCon now have a convenient 3.5 hour train trip directly from Orlando International Airport to Boca Raton. This is faster than driving, which takes over 4.5 hours in traffic. It is also quicker than Amtrak’s routes connecting the two cities, which take 5-7 hours.

Brightline’s president Patrick Goddard noted that the train service will “make it easier for all Floridians and visitors to experience the best our state has to offer.” This will certainly include connecting finance pros between hubs like Orlando and Palm Beach County.

Overall, Brightline’s expansion to Orlando has linked key financial centers across Florida. For financial companies and professionals, it will facilitate easier networking, stronger partnerships, and more dealmaking. The launch of the new route in September 2023 is a major plus for Florida’s finance sector.

Release – Great American Cookies And Marble Slab Creamery Announce March Of Dimes Partnership Spotlighting NICU Awareness Month

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on FAT

09/21/2023

Milestones Matter! Cookie and Ice Cream Franchises Announce Partnership to Support Mom and Baby Nonprofit

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 21, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Great American Cookies, the Original Cookie Cake franchise, and Marble Slab Creamery, the imaginative small-batch ice cream brand, proudly announce their partnership with March of Dimes, the leading nonprofit fighting for the health of moms and babies. Tapping into the brands’ synergies of celebrating family milestones, the three organizations will join forces to honor Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) patients, their families, and the healthcare professionals caring for them.

To celebrate heroic NICU employees on Sept. 28, NICU Staff Appreciation Day, Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery will provide a sweet surprise to select NICU teams around the country by delivering Original Cookie Cakes and Ice Cream Cakes. In honor of NICU Awareness Day on Sept. 30, Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery will donate $1 to March of Dimes for every purchase made in-store or online. Additionally, customers who order Cookie Cakes or Ice Cream Cakes online on Sept. 30 (and pick up no later than Oct. 7) receive $3 off their Cookie Cake or IceCream Cake with code.

Many babies will spend their earliest days in the NICU due to preterm birth, birth defects, surgical or genetic conditions, or other diagnosis. This time can be stressful and overwhelming for families. The funds raised will help further March of Dimes’ critical support for families through programs like the NICU Family Support® program, which offers family education, staff training on family-centered care and an improved patient experience.

“With 1 in 10 babies born preterm each year, many of whom will spend time in the NICU, we appreciate the remarkable impact NICU staff have on families,” said Jenn Johnston, Chief Marketing Officer at FAT Brands, Inc. “At Marble Slab Creamery and Great American Cookies, we love sharing milestone moments with families, whether it’s a birthday or first steps – every milestone is worth celebrating. We have the perfect Cookie Cakes and Ice Cream Cakes to do just that! We are proud to raise funds to further the March of Dimes mission to improve the health of all moms and babies.”

“For more than 20 years, March of Dimes has been there for families with a baby in the NICU and as they transition home, offering the support and education they need, right when they need it,” said Kelly Ernst, March of Dimes Senior Vice President, Chief Revenue and Impact Officer. “This NICU Awareness Month, we are inspired by Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery’s commitment to celebrate the dedicated staff that work so hard to take care of thousands of families each year with support from our hospital partners across the country as part of their exciting Milestones Matter initiative.”

For nearly 40 years, Marble Slab Creamery has been an innovator in the ice cream space, dreaming up the frozen slab technique and offering homemade, small-batch ice cream with free unlimited mix-ins, shakes in a variety of flavors, and ice cream cakes.

Since 1977, Great American Cookies has baked up a reputation for not only being the creator of the Original Cookie Cake, but also for its famous chocolate chip cookie recipe. Other craveable menu items include brownies and Double Doozies™, made with delectable icing sandwiched between two cookies.

To donate directly to the cause, please visit the brands’ Milestones Matter website. For more information on Great American Cookies, visit www.greatamericancookies.com. For more information on Marble Slab Creamery, visit www.marbleslab.com. The brands are thankful to partners Southern Champion Tray and Specialty Box & PACKING CO. for enabling this partnership and donation.

About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

About Great American Cookies
Founded on a family chocolate chip cookie recipe in 1977, Great American Cookies believes that pure, simple delight is part of living a full life. Serving the Original Cookie Cake, fresh baked cookies in a variety of flavors, brownies, and Double Doozies™, we promise to treat you to bites of bliss that prove how sweet life can be. With more than 400 bakeries across the country and internationally in Bahrain, Guam, Saudi Arabia, and treats available to ship right to your door, the sweet spot is always close to home. For more information, visit www.greatamericancookies.com.

About Marble Slab Creamery
Since dreaming up the frozen slab technique and serving fresh homemade, small-batch Ice Cream in-store since 1983, Marble Slab Creamery has always known how to dream big. We sprinkle our customers with imagination and promise to inspire with infinite Ice Cream possibilities to feed your curiosity and capture cravings. With our always free mix-in philosophy, delicious Ice Cream and Shakes in a variety of flavors, hand-rolled waffle cones, and Ice Cream Cakes, imagination has no limits. Today, Marble Slab Creamery is enjoyed by consumers across the globe with locations in Bahrain, Canada, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Guam, Puerto Rico, and the United States. For more information, visit www.marbleslab.com.

About March of Dimes
March of Dimes leads the fight for the health of all moms and babies. We support research, lead programs, and provide education and advocacy so that every family can have the best possible start. Building on a successful 85-year legacy, we support every pregnant person and every family. To learn more about March of Dimes, please visit marchofdimes.org.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Ali Lloyd, FAT Brands
alloyd@fatbrands.com
435-760-6168

Source: FAT Brands Inc.

MGM Hack Highlights Casino Cyber Risks

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Casino and hotel operator MGM Resorts tumbled last week after revealing it was hit by a data breach impacting over 10 million former guests. The hack showcases the cyber risks facing hospitality firms and dragged down related stocks as investors weighed the potential fallout.

MGM shares dropped over 4% following its disclosure of the breach as investors reacted to the cyberattack. The stock slide reflected concerns over potential costs from lawsuits, technical remedies, and reputational damage.

The attack also stoked fears of similar incidents across the broader hospitality sector. Airline, cruise, and casino stocks all declined as analysts noted cyber threats facing the industry. Leisure companies handle vast customer data and suffer from downtime, making them prime hacker targets.

Take a look at Travelzoo, a company providing members with travel, entertainment and lifestyle experiences.

Broader equity markets proved resilient to the MGM incident. But cybersecurity stocks rallied on expectations companies may now invest more in protecting data and systems going forward. Top gainers included cyber firms Palo Alto Networks and CrowdStrike.

The MGM breach follows several recent high-profile hacks of casinos and gaming firms. The frequency of attacks has put the industry on notice. New Nevada regulations now require prompt breach disclosures from casinos. Once inside a network, hackers can often access customer financial data. Small casinos have paid millions in ransoms to regain control of systems.

While the MGM breach didn’t significantly sway major indexes, it highlights the dangers posed by cyber criminals. A larger incident paralyzing critical infrastructure could certainly roil markets. This incident is an important reminder of the growing cyber threats facing corporations and customers alike in today’s digitally connected world.

QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG) – A Favorable Course For Revenue and Cash Flow Growth

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, September 21, 2023

QuantaSing is a leading online service provider in China dedicated to improving people’s quality of life and well-being by providing lifelong personal learning and development opportunities. The Company is the largest service provider in China’s online adult learning market and China’s adult personal interest learning market in terms of revenue, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan based on data from 2022. By leveraging its proprietary tools and technology, QuantaSing offers easy-to-understand, affordable, and accessible online courses to adult learners under a variety of brands, including QiNiu, JiangZhen and QianChi, empowering users to pursue personal development. Leveraging its extensive experience in individual online learning services, the Company has also expanded its services to corporate clients including, among others, marketing services and enterprise talent management services.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $10 price target. QuantaSing is the largest online individual learning service provider in China, by revenue. It launched in 2019 with a focus on adult financial literacy courses, before expanding to personal interest courses. Additionally, the company operates an e-commerce platform focused on liquor, which could expand product offerings in the future. Our favorable rating is based on the company’s positive cash flow growth outlook.

Scalable business model. The company acquires customers at a low cost by offering free introductory courses advertised through online sources, providing a large audience to which it can sell its premium courses, Currently, the company has over 94 million total registered users on its free course offerings. Notably, the company can quickly develop new courses tailored to customer needs, which provides flexible monetization opportunities. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FedEx Gains Market Share Amid Rival Struggles

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shares of FedEx jumped over 5% on Thursday after the shipping giant reported better-than-expected fiscal first quarter results. The stock rally comes amid a broader market selloff, with investors cheering FedEx’s improved profitability and outlook.

FedEx earned $4.55 per share last quarter, handily beating analyst forecasts of $3.70. Though revenue declined 6.5% year-over-year to $21.7 billion, the company boosted its operating margin to 7.3%, surpassing expectations.

The strong quarter was driven by effective cost-cutting under CEO Raj Subramaniam and higher shipping volumes as key rivals dealt with challenges. FedEx gained U.S. market share in recent months which it expects to retain.

Management raised full-year EPS guidance to a range of $17.00 to $18.50, up from prior outlook of $16.50 to $18.50. The company also announced new demand surcharges for the holiday peak season and a January rate increase.

FedEx continued benefiting from its DRIVE cost savings program which seeks $1.8 billion in total reductions. Steps like reducing flights, realigning staff and shifting to one daily delivery wave boosted efficiency.

The Ground segment was a standout with a 59% jump in operating income as volumes improved. The Express unit grew operating income 18% despite lower revenue. But the Freight division saw income drop 26% on reduced shipments.

The outperformance comes as labor negotiations weighed on service levels at rival UPS. UPS disclosed it lost 1 million packages daily to other carriers, which FedEx said it captured 400,000 of. The bankruptcy of trucking company Yellow also benefited FedEx.

Demand for logistics and shipping services remains resilient despite economic uncertainty. And challenges at competitors created an opening for FedEx to flex its network strength and snatch market share. It expects to maintain most new volumes.

Take a moment to take a look at a few shipping and logistics companies covered by Noble Capital Markets Senior Analyst Michael Heim.

The results suggest FedEx has turned a corner after recent struggles with costs and service issues. The company’s turnaround plan is clearly bearing fruit. And investors have taken notice, bidding the stock price higher after the earnings beat.

FedEx shares have now rebounded nearly 20% from 52-week lows hit in June. The stock remains down 25% year-to-date amid broader market volatility. But it has outpaced the S&P 500 recently.

Thursday’s post-earnings pop provides encouragement that FedEx may sustain its momentum if execution remains solid. But the company still faces macro uncertainty and must continue improving productivity.

The holiday quarter is crucial for delivery firms like FedEx. The company aims to avoid last year’s service shortfalls. Management expressed confidence its initiatives will enable strong peak season performance.

While risks remain, FedEx has proactively adapted its network for holiday demand spikes. And it should reap continued benefits from rival struggles if recent market share gains stick.

Ongoing cost discipline also remains key. As higher rates kick in, boosting revenue, FedEx must maintain focus on trimming unnecessary expenses. Investors want to see margins continue expanding.

The quarterly beat suggests the shipping titan is making strides in its turnaround bid under new leadership. If FedEx sustains stronger operational execution, its stock price could continue recovering lost ground.

But the company must keep innovating and finding efficiency gains in the rapidly evolving logistics arena. Satisfying customers and shareholders means continually improving services and profitability, even in a weakened economic climate.

Release – Fazoli’s Opens Second Little Rock Location

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on FAT

09/20/2023

 Download(opens in new window)

Hot and Fresh Breadsticks Now Cooking on the West Side

LOS ANGELES, Sept. 20, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Fazoli’s, America’s favorite fast and fresh Italian chain, has opened its second location in Little Rock. Located at 11410 W. Markham St., the location is now serving up its beloved hot and buttery breadsticks and signature Italian dishes including pasta, subs, salads and pizzas. 

“We have loved serving the Little Rock community and look forward to making our fast and fresh Italian offerings more convenient to the west side of town,” said Doug Bostick, President at Fazoli’s. “Our second location in Little Rock is just the beginning of our commitment to growth in Arkansas, so stay tuned for more updates.” 

Since 1988, Fazoli’s has been committed to serving quality Italian food, fast, fresh, and friendly. From unlimited signature breadsticks to freshly prepared pasta entrees, the chain prides itself on serving high-quality menu offerings, all at an affordable price. 

The Little Rock Fazoli’s is located at 11410 W. Markham St. Little Rock, AR 72212. Drive-thru and dine-in are open 10:30 a.m. to 10 p.m., seven days a week. 

For more information, visit Fazolis.com. 

About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit fatbrands.com. 

About Fazoli’s

Fast. Fresh. Italian. Founded in 1988 in Lexington, Ky., Fazoli’s owns and operates nearly 220 restaurants in 27 states, making it the largest QSR Italian chain in America. Fazoli’s prides itself on serving quality Italian food, fast, fresh and friendly. Menu offerings include freshly prepared pasta entrees, sub sandwiches, salads, pizza and desserts – along with its unlimited signature breadsticks. For more information, visit www.Fazolis.com.

MEDIA CONTACT:
Ali Lloyd, FAT Brands
alloyd@fatbrands.com
435-760-6168

The Perfect Storm Brewing in US Housing

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

A perfect storm is brewing in the US housing market. Mortgage rates have surged above 7% just as millennials, the largest generation, reach peak homebuying age. This collision of rising interest rates and unmet demand is causing substantial disruption, as seen in the sharp decline in home sales, cautious builders and a looming affordability crisis that threatens the broader economy.

Mortgage rates have taken off as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to fight inflation. The average 30-year fixed rate recently hit 7.18%, according to Freddie Mac, the highest level since 2001. This has severely hampered housing affordability and demand. Fannie Mae, the mortgage finance giant, forecasts total home sales will drop to 4.8 million this year, the slowest pace since 2011 when the housing market was still recovering from the Great Recession.

Fannie Mae expects sales to struggle through 2024 as rates remain elevated. It predicts the US economy will enter a recession in early 2024, further dragging down the housing market. Home prices are also likely to drop as high rates impede sales. This could hurt consumer confidence and discretionary spending, considering the critical role housing plays in household wealth.

Higher rates have pumped up monthly mortgage payments and made homes less affordable. Take a $500,000 home purchased with a 20% down payment. At a 2.86% mortgage rate two years ago, the monthly payment would have been $1,656. With rates now at 7.18%, that same home has a monthly cost of $3,077, according to calculations by Axios. That 87% payment surge makes purchasing unattainable for many buyers.

These affordability challenges are hitting just as millennials reach peak homebuying age. The largest cohorts of this generation were born in the late 1980s and early 1990s, making them between 32 and 34 years old today. That’s when marriage, childbearing and demand for living space typically accelerate.

However, homebuilders have been reluctant to significantly ramp up construction with rates so high. Housing starts experienced a significant decline of 11.3% in August, according to Census Bureau data, driven by a decline in apartment buildings. Single-family starts dipped 4.3% to an annual pace of 941,000, 16% below the average from mid-2020 to mid-2022. Homebuilder sentiment has also plunged, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Take a look at Orion Group Holdings Inc., a leading specialty construction company servicing the infrastructure, industrial and building sectors.

This pullback in new construction comes even as there is strong interest from millennials and other buyers. Though mortgage rates moderated the overheated housing market earlier this year, national home prices remain just below their all-time highs, up 13.5% from two years ago, according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.

Some analysts say the only solution is to significantly boost supply. But that seems unlikely with builders cautious and financing costs high. The housing crisis has no quick fix and will continue to be an anchor on the broader economy. Millennials coming of age and mortgage rates spiraling upwards have sparked a perfect storm, broken the housing market, and darkened the country’s economic outlook.

High Gas Prices Return, Complicating Inflation Fight

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Pain at the pump has made an unwelcome return, with gas prices rapidly rising across the United States. The national average recently climbed to $3.88 per gallon, while some states now face prices approaching or exceeding $6 per gallon.

In California, gas prices have spiked to $5.79 on average, up 31 cents in just the past week. It’s even worse in metro Los Angeles where prices hit $6.07, a 49 cent weekly jump. Besides California, drivers in 11 states now face average gas prices of $4 or more.

This resurgence complicates the Federal Reserve’s fight against high inflation. Oil prices are the key driver of retail gas costs. With oil climbing back to $90 per barrel, pushed up by supply cuts abroad, gas prices have followed.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $93.74 on Tuesday, its highest level in 10 months, before retreating below $91 on Wednesday. The international benchmark Brent crude hit highs above $96 per barrel. Goldman Sachs warned Brent could reach $107 if OPEC+ nations don’t unwind production cuts.

For consumers, higher gas prices add costs and sap purchasing power, especially for lower-income families. Drivers once again face pain filling up their tanks. Households paid an average of $445 a month on gas during the June peak when prices topped $5 a gallon. That figure dropped to $400 in September but is rising again.

Politically, high gas also causes headaches for the Biden administration. Midterm voters tend to blame whoever occupies the White House for pain at the pump, whether justified or not. President Biden has few tools to immediately lower prices set by global markets.

Take a look at other energy companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage list.

However, economists say oil and gas prices must rise significantly further to seriously jeopardize the U.S. economy. Past recessions only followed massive oil price spikes of at least 100% within a year. Oil would need to double from current levels, to around $140 per barrel, to inevitably tip the economy into recession, according to analysis.

Nonetheless, the energy resurgence does present challenges for the Fed’s inflation fight. While core inflation has cooled lately, headline inflation has rebounded in part due to pricier gas. Consumer prices rose 0.1% in August, defying expectations of a drop, largely because of rising shelter and energy costs.

This complicates the Fed’s mission to cool inflation through interest rate hikes. Some economists believe the energy volatility will lead the Fed to pencil in an additional quarter-point rate hike this year to around 4.5%. However, a dramatic policy response is unlikely with oil still below $100 per barrel.

In fact, some argue the energy spike may even inadvertently help the Fed. By sapping consumer spending power, high gas prices could dampen demand and ease price pressures. If energy costs siphon purchases away from discretionary goods and services, it may allow inflation to fall without more aggressive Fed action.

Morgan Stanley analysis found past energy price shocks had a “small” impact on core inflation but took a “sizable bite out of” consumer spending. While bad for growth, this demand destruction could give the Fed space to cool inflation without triggering serious economic damage.

For now, energy volatility muddies the inflation outlook and complicates the Fed’s delicate task of engineering a soft landing. Gas prices swinging upward once again present both economic and political challenges. But unless oil spikes drastically higher, the energy complex likely won’t force the Fed’s hand. The central bank will keep rates elevated as long as underlying inflation remains stubbornly high.

Klaviyo Shares Jump 23% in NYSE Debut, Providing Another Tech IPO Opportunity

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shares of marketing software firm Klaviyo jumped 23% in their trading debut Wednesday on the New York Stock Exchange. The successful initial public offering provides investors a rare opportunity to buy into a high-growth U.S. tech startup following a nearly two-year IPO drought.

Klaviyo priced its shares at $30 each, raising $345 million and valuing the company at over $9 billion on a fully diluted basis. The listing comes just a day after grocery delivery service Instacart went public on the Nasdaq after cutting its valuation target. Investor appetite for unprofitable technology names has waned in recent years amid rising interest rates.

But demand for Klaviyo shares was strong right out of the gate. For investors, IPOs provide a chance to gain exposure to emerging, innovative companies before they are available on public markets. Companies utilize IPOs to raise cash for growth and operating expenses.

Klaviyo reported revenue jumped 51% last quarter to $165 million, as its marketing automation software is now used by over 130,000 customers. The company swung to a $11 million profit last quarter after losing money a year earlier.

This transition to profitability is an attractive quality for investors who have soured on money-losing technology firms in the current environment. One major backer providing strong IPO demand is e-commerce platform Shopify, which owns around 11% of Klaviyo’s shares.

Klaviyo gets approximately 78% of its annual recurring revenue from customers who also use Shopify, indicating close ties between the two tech firms. Shopify invested $100 million into Klaviyo last year.

The marketing software provider enables companies to store customer data and build profiles to target marketing campaigns across email, text messaging, social media, and other channels. It initially focused on e-commerce companies but is now seeing growing traction in other sectors like restaurants, travel, and entertainment.

Tech IPOs ground to a halt in 2022, as surging inflation led the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates, sparking volatility and a flight from risk assets. Klaviyo is the first notable U.S. venture-backed software IPO since HashiCorp and Samsara debuted in December 2021.

The offering provides investors hungry for exposure to high-growth tech the chance to buy into a next-generation software vendor. U.S. tech IPOs slowed to their lowest level in over a decade last year. If strong demand for Klaviyo shares continues, it could open the door for more tech IPOs in 2023.

Companies that only recently considered going public may once again pursue IPOs after Klaviyo’s success. The IPO window for unprofitable tech names appeared shut, but Klaviyo’s ability to raise over $340 million shows investors still have appetite for rapidly growing software vendors.

Looking ahead, the pipeline for tech IPOs includes names like Reddit, Databricks and Discord. But many may delay plans or explore direct listings to avoid leaving money on the table like Instacart. If markets grow choppy again, Klaviyo’s offering window could close as quickly as it opened.

For now, its strong first day of trading is a boon for both the company and tech investors. Early buyers are already sitting on sizable gains from an asset class that struggled last year. If the tech IPO market thaws, it would provide investors access to the high-growth innovators driving the future.

U.S. National Debt Tops $33 Trillion

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. national debt surpassed $33 trillion for the first time ever this week, hitting $33.04 trillion according to the Treasury Department. This staggering sum exceeds the size of the entire U.S. economy and equals about $100,000 per citizen.

For investors, the ballooning national debt raises concerns about future tax hikes, inflation, and government spending cuts that could impact markets. While the debt level itself may seem abstract, its trajectory has real implications for portfolios.

Over 50% of the current national debt has accumulated since 2019. Massive pandemic stimulus programs, tax cuts, and a steep drop in tax revenues all blew up the deficit during Covid-19. Interest costs on the debt are also piling up.

Some level of deficit spending was needed to combat the economic crisis. But years of expanding deficits have brought total debt to the highest level since World War II as a share of GDP.

With debt now exceeding the size of the economy, there is greater risk of reduced economic output from crowd-out effects. High debt levels historically hamper GDP growth.

Economists worry that high debt will drive up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses as the government competes for limited capital. The Congressional Budget Office projects interest costs will soon become the largest government expenditure as rates rise.

Higher interest rates will consume more tax revenue just to pay interest, leaving less funding available for programs and services. Taxes may have to be raised to cover these costs.

Rising interest costs will also put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates low and monetize the debt through quantitative easing. This could further feed inflation.

If interest costs spiral, government debt could eventually reach unsustainable levels and require restructuring. But well before that, the debt overhang will influence policy and markets.

As debt concerns mount, investors may rotate to inflation hedges like gold and real estate. The likelihood of higher corporate and individual taxes could hit equity valuations and consumer spending.

But government spending cuts to social programs and defense would also ripple through the economy. Leaner budgets would provide fiscal headwinds reducing growth.

With debt limiting stimulus options, creative monetary policy would be needed in the next recession. More radical measures by the Fed could introduce volatility.

While the debt trajectory is troubling, a crisis is not imminent. Still, prudent investors should account for fiscal risks in their portfolio positioning and outlook. The ballooning national debt will shape policy and markets for years to come.

Instacart Shares Surge 40% in Strong Nasdaq Debut

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Instacart experienced a red-hot debut on the public markets as shares soared 40% in its first day of trading. The grocery delivery pioneer opened at $42 per share on the Nasdaq exchange, well above its IPO price of $30.

The opening trade valued Instacart at nearly $14 billion, up from the $10 billion valuation set by its IPO pricing on Monday. Demand from investors seeking exposure to the future of grocery commerce drove the shares sharply higher out of the gate.

Trading volume was heavy early on, with over 18 million shares changing hands in the first 30 minutes. The stock traded as high as $47.57 at its peak, showcasing strong appetite for the newly minted public company.

Instacart (CART) raised $420 million through the IPO by selling 14.1 million shares, representing just 8% of its total outstanding shares. Existing shareholders also sold 7.9 million shares in the offering for liquidity.

The blockbuster debut delivered significant returns for IPO participants during a volatile time for tech stocks. But Instacart’s valuation remains below the $39 billion mark it reached at the height of pandemic demand in 2021, reflecting more measured recent tech valuations.

Still, the strong first day pop is a promising sign for Instacart as it embarks on the public market journey. The company priced its offering conservatively to allow room for an impressive inaugural rally.

The offering adds Instacart to the ranks of publicly traded ecommerce innovators disrupting traditional retail models. It joins the likes of DoorDash, Uber, and Amazon in leveraging technology to unlock the potential of online grocery delivery.

Instacart is at the forefront of transforming the $1 trillion grocery industry through its on-demand digital marketplace. Its platform connects customers with personal shoppers who handle orders from partner grocers and deliver items in as fast as an hour.

Take a look at 1-800-Flowers.com, a leading ecommerce business platform that features an all-star family of brands.

Founded in 2012 by an Amazon veteran, Instacart was early to recognize the coming wave of grocery ecommerce. The company scaled rapidly when the pandemic accelerated adoption of online ordering and delivery.

Instacart seized its first-mover advantage to emerge as a leader in the space. It has partnered with prominent national, regional, and local grocers to build a retail network covering over 85% of U.S. households.

The company aligned with shifting consumer preferences for convenience and digital experiences. Busy lifestyles and smartphone ubiquity make grocery delivery a killer app of modern ecommerce.

Instacart smartly invested to expand services like fast unstaffed delivery and self-service pickup. Its Instacart Ads platform also lets brands promote products through sponsored listings.

The company rapidly grew revenue to over $7 billion in 2021 during the pandemic-driven surge. More recently it has focused on boosting profitability as demand normalizes post-Covid.

Instacart generated $14 billion in gross merchandise volume in 2021. Its net revenue neared $2 billion, doubling from 2020. But losses have narrowed dramatically since the company turned EBITDA positive last year.

As the first major tech IPO of 2023, Instacart’s trading provides a blueprint for startups and venture investors awaiting public debuts this year. The initial reception indicates persistent investor appetite for innovative tech names with strong growth narratives.

The blockbuster debut opens an exciting new chapter for Instacart and the future of digital grocery. Its first trading day validated Instacart’s pioneering business model and resilient growth prospects.