Category: Consumer

FAT Brands (FAT) – More Details on Twin Hospitality Distribution

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, January 13, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Twin Hospitality Transaction. On Friday after the market closed, Twin Hospitality Group filed an amended Form 10 providing additional detail regarding the distribution of Twin Hospitality shares to existing FAT Brands shareholders. We believe the distribution and subsequent potential actions will highlight the value of Twin Hospitality and, by extension, FAT Brands shares.

Details. Initially, FAT Brands will own 100% of the equity of Twin Hospitality, consisting of 47,298,271 Class A shares and 2,870,000 Class B shares. Just like at FAT Brands, the B shares are super-voting with 50 votes per share. Class A shares have one vote. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – CVG Announces New Structure to Support Market-Focused Strategy

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on CVGI

NEW ALBANY, Ohio, Jan. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Commercial Vehicle Group (the “Company” or “CVG”) (NASDAQ: CVGI), a diversified industrial products and services company, today announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the Company to implement a new organizational structure designed to enhance alignment with its customers and end markets, effective January 1, 2025.

Under this new structure, CVG will reorganize its vertical business units into the following three operating divisions and reporting segments.

  • Global Electrical Systems
  • Global Seating
  • Trim Systems and Components

As part of this realignment, the Company’s Aftermarket & Accessories business unit will be absorbed in these three segments. Its seating and electrical portfolio will transition to Global Seating and Global Electrical Systems, respectively. Its wiper systems will become part of the newly formed Trim Systems and Components business unit in addition to the trim and components businesses from the prior Vehicle Solutions segment.

Russell Ketteringham will lead the seating business as President, Global Seating, transitioning from President, Global Vehicle Solutions. Donald Fishel will lead the new trim systems and components business as President, Trim Systems and Components in addition to his Business Development responsibilities. Peter Lugo will continue to lead the Electrical Systems segment.

In 2024, CVG streamlined its operating model and lowered its cost profile as part of its strategic portfolio rationalization. CVG expects this new structure to enhance clarity and focus, with each business unit positioned to deliver on its specific strategic and operational objectives while executing initiatives to advance key priorities. The realignment better positions CVG for future growth, while lowering corporate and administrative costs to align with the company’s current revenue profile.

“This new organizational structure is an important step in our transformation to become a more agile company that puts our customers and our markets first,” said James Ray, President, and CEO of CVG. “We anticipate that our new structure will accelerate our operational momentum and drive higher growth through a product-focused, customer-centric enterprise strategy.”

CVG expects to begin reporting results under the new reportable segment structure beginning with the first quarter 2025 results, and the Company expects to provide historical quarterly segment results under the new structure at that time as well.

About CVG

At CVG, we deliver real solutions to complex design, engineering and manufacturing problems while creating positive change for our customers, industries, and communities we serve. Information about CVG and its products is available at www.cvgrp.com.

Investor Relations Contact:
Ross Collins or Stephen Poe
Alpha IR Group
CVGI@alpha-ir.com

Media Contact:
Patrick Woolford
Director, Communications
Patrick.Woolford@cvgrp.com

Primary Logo

Source: Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.

FAT Brands (FAT) – New Locations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, January 02, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Business Update. With 2024 coming to a close and the focus on the Twin Hospitality distribution, we wanted to review the ongoing business in terms of new openings for additional expansion. As we have emphasized in the past, the continuing expansion of the overall operating units provides a “cost free” means of improving overall adjusted EBITDA for FAT Brands.

New Openings. Since the beginning of November, or since FAT Brands reported third quarter results, the Company has announced the opening of a number of new locations, including a Hurricane Grill & Wings location in a Six Flags Great Escape Lodge in upstate NY, a Johnny Rockets in the Soaring Eagle Casino Resort in MI, a Pretzelmaker location in Clear Lake, IA, the fifth Round Table Pizza in Reno, NV, and five new locations for Great American Cookies and Marble Slab Creamery in Texas.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Nordstrom Family to Take Retail Giant Private in $6.25 Billion Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Nordstrom will go private in a $6.25 billion deal, with shareholders receiving $24.25 per share in cash.
– The Nordstrom family will hold a 50.1% stake, with Mexican retailer Liverpool owning 49.9%.
– The privatization aims to revitalize Nordstrom’s operations away from public market pressures.

Nordstrom Inc., the iconic department store chain, is set to go private in a landmark $6.25 billion deal spearheaded by its founding family. This strategic move is designed to provide the company with greater flexibility away from the pressures of the public market, enabling it to address evolving retail challenges more effectively.

Under the terms of the agreement, Nordstrom shareholders will receive $24.25 per share in cash, reflecting a significant valuation for the company. The transaction, expected to close in the first half of 2025, will leave the Nordstrom family with a controlling 50.1% stake, while their partner, Mexican retailer El Puerto de Liverpool SAB, will hold the remaining 49.9%.

Nordstrom’s stock has seen a 33% increase this year, bolstered by optimism surrounding the retail sector’s recovery and this transformative move. However, the offer represents a notable decline from a 2018 bid by the family to take the company private at $50 per share, which the board deemed too low at the time.

This privatization signals the Nordstrom family’s confidence in reviving the brand’s fortunes amidst a shifting retail landscape. CEO Erik Nordstrom expressed optimism about the deal, stating, “On behalf of my family, we look forward to working with our teams to ensure Nordstrom thrives long into the future.”

Nordstrom, like many department stores, has struggled to regain its pre-pandemic revenue levels. After peaking at $15.9 billion in annual revenue in fiscal 2019, the company’s sales have not returned to those heights. Analysts project fiscal 2024 revenue to close at $14.9 billion, reflecting a lingering decline exacerbated by changing consumer habits and the rise of online competitors such as Amazon.

The challenges faced by Nordstrom echo broader trends in the U.S. department store sector. Macy’s Inc. has downsized its store footprint to reduce costs, while Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus have undergone significant ownership changes to adapt to market dynamics.

The transaction will be funded through a mix of rollover equity contributions from the Nordstrom family and Liverpool, $450 million in borrowings from a $1.2 billion ABL bank facility, and company cash reserves. A special dividend of up to $0.25 per share is planned for shareholders, contingent on the deal’s completion.

The Nordstrom board, excluding Erik and Peter Nordstrom, who recused themselves from the vote, unanimously approved the transaction. The deal still requires approval from two-thirds of the company’s common stockholders, including a majority of shares not owned by the Nordstrom family or Liverpool.

Taking Nordstrom private marks a pivotal moment for the 123-year-old retailer, granting it the freedom to restructure and innovate away from Wall Street’s scrutiny. The Nordstrom family’s continued involvement and partnership with Liverpool signal a commitment to ensuring the company adapts to the evolving retail landscape.

The success of this move could serve as a case study for other legacy retailers grappling with similar challenges, as Nordstrom seeks to reclaim its position as a leader in the retail industry.

Tripadvisor and Liberty TripAdvisor Announce Merger to Simplify Corporate Structure

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tripadvisor, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRIP) and Liberty TripAdvisor Holdings, Inc. (OTCMKTS: LTRPA, LTRPB) have announced a definitive agreement to merge. The merger will see Tripadvisor acquiring Liberty TripAdvisor, resulting in a simplified capital structure for the global travel platform. The transaction, valued at approximately $435 million, includes the conversion of Liberty TripAdvisor’s Series A and Series B Common Stock into cash, alongside the redemption of its 8% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock and the repayment of its 0.50% Exchangeable Senior Debentures. Liberty TripAdvisor’s shareholders will receive approximately $20 million in cash for their common stock and $42.5 million in cash, along with 3,037,959 shares of Tripadvisor common stock for their preferred stock.

This merger enables Tripadvisor to retire about 27 million shares of its common stock held by Liberty TripAdvisor, net of shares pledged as collateral. The effective repurchase price of these shares stands at $16.21, representing a 16% premium based on the 10-day volume-weighted average price as of December 17, 2024. The agreement marks a pivotal move to create strategic flexibility and unlock value for stakeholders.

Matt Goldberg, President and CEO of Tripadvisor, highlighted the significance of the transaction as a step toward simplifying Tripadvisor’s corporate structure. He emphasized the opportunity to retire a significant portion of shares while maintaining a healthy balance sheet. According to Goldberg, this transaction will empower Tripadvisor to pursue its strategic vision and expand its role in the travel and experiences sector. The deal also represents an important milestone for Liberty TripAdvisor, allowing the entity to address challenges stemming from its complex capital structure and financial obligations, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Greg Maffei, Chairman and CEO of Liberty TripAdvisor, praised the agreement, emphasizing its alignment with the company’s goals to maximize stakeholder value and enhance Tripadvisor’s ability to adapt and grow. By removing the dual-class share structure, Tripadvisor will gain greater strategic and operational agility, enabling it to better compete and innovate within the travel industry.

The merger was unanimously approved by the boards of both companies following a thorough evaluation by Tripadvisor’s Special Committee of independent directors. This committee, supported by financial and legal advisors, played a critical role in securing terms favorable to all parties involved. Liberty TripAdvisor’s stakeholders, including those holding Exchangeable Debentures, are expected to benefit from the streamlined structure and improved financial position post-merger.

The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including approval by a majority of Liberty TripAdvisor’s voting shareholders. The companies anticipate finalizing the merger by the second quarter of 2025. If the deal encounters delays beyond March 27, 2025, Tripadvisor has agreed to provide a secured loan to Liberty TripAdvisor to address any financial obligations related to its Exchangeable Debentures. This loan will be canceled upon the successful closing of the transaction or will become due shortly thereafter if the merger is not completed.

Tripadvisor operates as a family of brands connecting people with travel experiences worldwide. Its portfolio includes Viator and TheFork, along with Tripadvisor’s core platform, which provides travel guidance and booking services for accommodations, restaurants, and attractions. The merger with Liberty TripAdvisor is expected to enhance Tripadvisor’s strategic flexibility and solidify its position as a leading player in the travel industry, unlocking new opportunities for growth and innovation.

Lucky Strike Entertainment (LUCK) – A New Chapter as Lucky Strike

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Lucky Strike Entertainment is one of the world’s premier location-based entertainment platforms. With over 360 locations across North America, Lucky Strike Entertainment provides experiential offerings in bowling, amusements, water parks, and family entertainment centers. The company also owns the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling and a growing media property that boasts millions of fans around the globe. For more information on Lucky Strike Entertainment, please visit ir.luckystrikeent.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Complete rebrand to Lucky Strike. On December 12, the company announced that it had completed its recently announced rebranding to Lucky Strike Entertainment, which was effective on December 16th. The newly branded company will trade on the NYSE under the symbol “LUCK” as of today.

An acquired brand. The company acquired Lucky Strike Entertainment in September of last year. At that time, management noted that the company would test the brand strength of Lucky Strike in comparison with the Bowlero brand. We believe that Lucky Strike has a strong brand presence and is a compelling change for the company. 


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Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – A Closer Look At The Recent Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, December 16, 2024

500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q3 Results. The company reported favorable Q3 revenue of $80.2 million and adj. EBITDA of $7.1 million, both of which were in line with our estimates of $81.5 million and $7.0 million, respectively. Furthermore, gross margin improved by 580 basis points from the prior year period. In our view, the solid results demonstrate the efficacy of the company’s initiatives to enhance its expense structure and improve gross margins.

Improved gross margin. The company’s strong gross margin improvement was largely driven by a 480bp improvement in product costs and reduced freight costs, with an 80bp contribution from lower promotional activity and discounting in its Direct To Consumer (DTC) segment. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Release – CVG Announces Election of Jeffrey S. Niew to Board of Directors

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on CVGI

NEW ALBANY, Ohio, Dec. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Commercial Vehicle Group (the “Company” or “CVG”) (NASDAQ: CVGI), a diversified industrial products and services company, today announced that its Board of Directors (the “Board”) has elected Jeffrey S. Niew (58 years old) as an independent director to the Board, effective December 16, 2024.

Jeffrey S. Niew

Mr. Niew is the President & CEO (since 2013) of Knowles Corporation, a global market leader of highly engineered solutions utilizing semiconductors and electronic components technologies across a wide array of products and end markets. He was formerly the Vice President of Dover Corporation and President and CEO (from 2011 to February 2014) of Dover Communication Technologies. In 2014, Mr. Niew led the spin-off of Knowles from its previous owner Dover Corporation to a NSYE publicly traded company. Mr. Niew joined Knowles Electronics LLC in 2000, and became Chief Operating Officer in 2007, President in 2008 and President and CEO in 2010. Prior to joining Knowles Electronics, Mr. Niew was employed by Littelfuse, Inc. (from 1995 to 2000) where he held various positions in product management, sales and engineering in the Electronic Products group, and by Hewlett-Packard Company (from 1988 to 1994) where he served in various engineering and product management roles in the Optoelectronics Group. Other Board Experience: Mr. Niew is a member of the Advisory Board of the University of Illinois College of Engineering. He holds a bachelor’s degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Illinois at Chicago.

“My fellow Board members and I are delighted to welcome Jeffrey to the Board,” said Robert Griffin, Chair of the Board of Directors. “His extensive experience with multi-unit operations across regions, as well as his current role leading a large, dispersed organization will be tremendous assets to our Board.”

“Being elected to the CVG Board of Directors is a significant honor,” said Mr. Niew. “I am excited to work alongside the Board’s distinguished leaders to help guide the Company into the future.”

Mr. Niew will stand for re-election at the Company’s 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.

About CVG

At CVG, we deliver real solutions to complex design, engineering and manufacturing problems while creating positive change for our customers, industries, and communities we serve. Information about the Company and its products is available on the internet at www.cvgrp.com.

Investor Relations Contact:
Ross Collins or Stephen Poe
Alpha IR Group
CVGI@alpha-ir.com
Media Contact:
Patrick Woolford, Director, Communications
Patrick.woolford@cvgrp.com

Source: Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc.

1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) – Highlights From NobleCon20

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, December 13, 2024

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

c

A transitional year. Revenue guidance is flat to down mid single digits, but should start to grow again next year. The key growth drivers are expected to be led by its innovation initiatives, introduction of new products (ie. most recently, Cheryl’s Ice Cream, Wolferman’s New York Style Bagels, and Greeting Cards), bundling products (ie. Harry & David’s baskets with Shari’s Berries), products with new price points, and driving repeat customers. Plus, the company believes there is more to do with its 1.1 million Passport Loyalty customers, which is 10% of its customer base but accounts for over 20% of its revenues.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – Presentation Highlights from NobleCon20

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, December 12, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NobleCon20. The ODP Corporation Co-CFO Adam Haggard and VP of IR Tim Perrott presented at NobleCon20. Highlights included are the Company’s pivot towards B2B, targeting new markets, and the return of value to shareholders. 

B2B Pivot. Noted in our previous report, ODP is accelerating its B2B pivot through leveraging its nationwide supply chain, extensive B2B customer base, compelling value proposition, and strong balance sheet. A recent B2B win involves the Company’s ODP Business Solutions with a recent key contract win that is worth up to $1.5 billion over 10 years. Another involves Veyer with a major contract with one of the world’s largest social media focused e-commerce companies to deliver warehouse and fulfillment services for their online sales. In our view, both contracts represent management’s focus on its efforts within the space.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Realtors Forecast 6% Mortgage Rates in 2025, Boosting Housing Market Optimism

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– National Association of Realtors forecasts a 6% average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in 2025, boosting housing affordability and demand.
– Housing starts projected at 1.45 million, with single-family units leading growth.
– Median existing home price expected to rise to $410,700, with a 2% annual increase in house prices.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has forecasted that the average U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will drop to around 6% in 2025, bringing much-needed relief to homebuyers and potentially reviving a sluggish housing market. This rate decrease is expected to make homeownership more accessible for many prospective buyers, helping to stimulate both new housing construction and sales of previously owned homes.

According to the NAR’s latest projections, the housing market will see about 4.5 million existing home sales in 2025, a slight improvement over current levels. House prices are anticipated to rise by approximately 2%, with the median price for an existing home reaching $410,700. This price increase aligns with the general trend in the market, but the forecasted decline in mortgage rates could provide relief to homebuyers struggling with affordability challenges.

In particular, the NAR’s prediction that mortgage rates will stabilize around 6% offers hope to those shut out of the market due to the higher rates seen in recent years. With the current mortgage rate hovering near 7%, many prospective homebuyers have been unable to afford median-priced homes. If rates do indeed fall to 6%, approximately 6.2 million households will be able to afford homes at the median price, giving a much-needed boost to the housing market. This is a stark contrast to the present situation where higher rates have made it difficult for many to qualify for loans, especially first-time buyers.

Over the past few years, the housing market has been affected by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, which increased borrowing costs and led to a slowdown in home sales. Additionally, the so-called “rate-lock” effect has worsened the supply crunch. Many homeowners with mortgage rates below 5% have been reluctant to list their homes for sale, fearing they won’t be able to find a similarly low rate on a new home. As a result, the market has faced limited inventory, which has driven up home prices and further strained affordability.

To address the lack of available homes, builders have focused on constructing smaller homes, which have appealed to buyers seeking more affordable options. This has led to an increase in new home sales, which are expected to continue rising in 2025, with the NAR projecting 1.45 million housing starts, the bulk of them for single-family units. These new homes could provide much-needed inventory, helping to ease the supply issues that have plagued the market.

Despite the positive outlook for 2025, challenges remain. While mortgage rates are expected to decline, they are still relatively high compared to historical norms, and inventory levels are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This ongoing supply shortage will continue to place upward pressure on prices, making homeownership more difficult for some buyers. Additionally, the affordability gap between different regions will continue to vary, with some markets remaining out of reach for many potential buyers.

Nonetheless, the prospect of lower mortgage rates has sparked optimism in the housing market. A stabilizing rate at 6% could provide the necessary boost to allow more buyers to enter the market, driving both demand for existing homes and new construction. This change would also give homebuilders more confidence to move forward with projects, further stimulating the economy.

The ongoing reduction in mortgage rates, alongside a resilient economy, could help buyers overcome affordability barriers, especially in more moderately priced markets. As 2025 approaches, all eyes will be on mortgage rates and the broader housing market to see if these predictions hold true and bring about a much-needed shift toward recovery.

CPI Data Confirms Fed’s December Rate Cut Path

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, meeting economist expectations.
– Core inflation remains elevated at 3.3% annually, driven by higher shelter and service costs.
– Markets now strongly anticipate a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in December.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released November inflation data on Wednesday, showing consumer prices increased 2.7% year-over-year. This uptick from October’s 2.6% rise aligns with economist projections and solidifies expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates at its December meeting.

On a monthly basis, the CPI increased by 0.3%, the largest gain since April. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% annually for the fourth consecutive month. Sticky inflation in core components such as shelter and services continues to challenge the Federal Reserve’s goal of achieving a 2% inflation target.

Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, commented on the persistence of core inflation, noting that it remains a concern but is unlikely to derail the anticipated rate cut. “We don’t expect it to persuade the Fed to skip another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting,” he stated.

Shelter Inflation Moderates, Food Costs Persist

Shelter inflation contributed nearly 40% of the monthly CPI increase, though the annual gain of 4.7% marked a deceleration from October’s 4.9%. Both rent and owners’ equivalent rent showed their smallest monthly increases since mid-2021, suggesting potential relief in housing costs.

Meanwhile, food prices remain a sticky category for inflation. The food index rose 0.4% month-over-month, with notable increases in categories like eggs, which surged 8.2% in November after declining in October. Energy prices also edged higher, rising 0.2% month-over-month, while apparel and personal care costs saw noticeable gains.

Market and Policy Implications

Financial markets reacted positively to the CPI report, as fears of an upside surprise were unfounded. The odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting increased to 97% following the release. However, economists remain cautious about potential inflationary pressures stemming from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs and corporate tax cuts.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, noted the Federal Reserve’s likely shift toward a more cautious approach after December. “We expect the Fed to move off autopilot in January, adopting a more cautious tone, and slowing its pace of cuts to just every other meeting,” Shah said.

As inflation trends remain in focus, the Federal Reserve’s decisions in the coming months will be critical in shaping the economic outlook for 2025.

Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – Q3 Is Illustrative Of Its Improving Margin Story

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, December 11, 2024

500 5th Avenue 20th Floor New York, NY 10110 United States Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 599 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Jonathan CEO & Director 825.62k N/A 1958 Ms. Marie Fogel Senior VP and Chief Merchandising & Manufacturing Officer 633.19k N/A 1961 Mr. John Chief Financial Officer

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 Results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $80.2 million, which was in line with our estimate of $81.5 million. Notably, gross margin improved by 580 basis points from the prior year period. We believe the solid results demonstrate the efficacy of the company’s initiatives to enhance its expense structure and improve gross margin.

Improved gross margin. The company’s strong gross margin improvement was largely driven by a 480bp improvement in product costs and reduced freight costs, with an 80bp contribution from lower promotional activity and discounting in its Direct To Consumer (DTC) segment. 


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.