The so-called Beige Book is receiving much more attention from market participants than it has in years as they seek insight into the near- and long-term economic direction. The report is published eight times yearly and released about two weeks before the FOMC scheduled meetings. It contains anecdotal trends and moods from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts. The information is collected and summarized and is relied on as part of the discussion topics at the Fed policy meetings.
The report released on January 18th was collected on or before January 9th. While each Federal Reserve district may have different economic experiences, for example, manufacturing regions may have a very different perspective than agricultural areas or districts where service jobs are more prevalent.
30,000 Foot View
The first Beige Book of 2023 shows the US economy is holding steady. However, there are only small amounts of growth experienced in some regions, while others expect small pockets of expansion. This overall summary would be difficult to use as an argument for the Fed to alter course from its stated intention of additional tightening, including Fed Funds rate hikes. The next meeting will be held on January 31st and February 1st.
“On balance, contacts across districts said they expected future price growth to moderate further in the year ahead,” the survey said.
The report doesn’t contain many surprises and confirms current expectations that residential real estate activity is sluggish, the labor market is strong, and that inflation is running at a slower pace of growth.
There is very little in January’s Beige Book that would alter analysts’ expectations of what the next monetary policy adjustment might be. Those that are expecting a 0.50% increase are not likely to shift their thinking from the summaries, and those expecting a 0.25% hike are similarly not inclined to shift their thinking. Most analysts fall into one of these two categories.
A Sign the Markets Wanted
In a recent interview, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the slowdown in inflation shows the Fed’s work raising rates is having the desired effect; she also suggested that further increases are still needed. “We’re beginning to see the kind of actions that we need to see,” Mester stated; these are “good signs that things are moving in the right direction. That’s important input into how we’re thinking about where policy needs to go.” This is heartening for those hoping for fewer rate hikes as Mester is considered one of the US central bank’s more hawkish members.
Take Away
The markets got a mixed bag with no clear change of direction from the summary of Federal reserve districts, otherwise known as the Beige Book. This could mean there will be few surprises at the close of the FOMC meeting on February 1st.
At least one Fed hawk is softening her rhetoric going into the meeting. If the trend continues, the prospect of fewer rate hikes should be viewed as positive for stocks and positive for bonds.
Cathie Wood Reveals 2022’s Most Disruptive and Innovative Technologies
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood penned a lookback-themed article about the innovations and disruptive companies of 2022. The purpose seemed to be to remind followers that although during the year, investors may have become disheartened with innovation, ‘look at the amazing opportunities that occurred.’ The innovations and companies highlighted were somewhat overlooked; following the path we are accustomed to from many breakthroughs, they fly under the radar. Then, suddenly they’re widely adopted. Below are many of her picks for innovation and companies she may now wish her funds held large positions in.
The Future of Internet
Suddenly everyone is talking about ChatGPT. According to Wood, artificial intelligence (AI), specifically, ChatGPT is advancing at a pace that is surprising even by standards set by earlier versions. This version of GPT-3, optimized for conversation, signed up one million users in just five days. By comparison, this onboarding of users is incredibly fast benchmarked against the original GPT-3, which took 24 months to reach the same level.
In 2022, TV advertising in the US underwent significant changes. Traditional, non-addressable, non-interactive TV ad spending dropped by 2% to $70 billion, according to Wood. Connected TV (CTV) ad spending on the same terms increased by 14% to ~$21 billion. Pure-play CTV operator Roku’s advertising platform revenue increased 15% year-over-year in the third quarter, the latest report available, while traditional TV scatter markets plummeted 38% year-over-year in the US. Roku maintained its position in the CTV market as the leading smart TV vendor in the US, accounting for 32% of the market.
Digital Wallets are replacing both credit cards and cash. In the category of offline commerce. They overtook cash as the top transaction method in 2020 and accounted for 50% of global online commerce volume in 2021. As an example of the growth, Square’s payment volume soared 193%, six times faster than the 30% increase in total retail spending 2019-2022 (relative to pre-COVID levels).
While overall e-commerce spending increased by 99% over the last three years, social commerce merchandise volume grew even faster. Shopify’s gross merchandise volume grew by 312%, almost four times faster than overall e-commerce and taking a significant share from other retail.
Underlying public blockchains continue to process transactions despite what may be going on surrounding the connected industries. Wood says it highlights that “their transparent, decentralized, and auditable ledgers could be a solution to the fraud and mismanagement associated with centralized, opaque institutions.” She explains, “After the FTX collapse, the share of trading volume on decentralized exchanges, which allow for trading without a central intermediary, rose 37% from 8.35% to 11.44%.
Genomic Revolution
Base editing and multiplexing have the potential to provide more effective CAR-T treatments for patients with otherwise incurable cancers. Cathie Wood provided an example from 2022 about a young girl in the UK with leukemia that went from hopeless in May to Canver-free in November.
In 2022 Dutch scientists at the Hubrecht Institute, UMC Utrecht, and the Oncode Institute used another form of gene editing called prime editing to correct the mutation that causes cystic fibrosis in human stem cells. Another example of how it is being adopted comes from Korean researchers at Yonsei University that used prime editing successfully to treat liver and eye diseases in adult mice.
CRISPR gene editing in Cathie’s words, “has delivered functional cures for beta-thalassemia and sickle cell disease.” She gives examples: CRISPR Therapeutics and Vertex Pharmaceuticals which together have treated more than 75 patients, resulting in some well-publicized “functional cures”. They are expecting FDA approval for Exa-Cel, the treatment for sickle cell and beta thalassemia, in early 2023.
In the category the Ark Invest founder referred to as other cell and gene therapies, she says in 2022, regulators approved several landmark cell and gene therapies. The examples she used to highlight this are Hemgenix for the treatment of Haemophilia B, Zyntelgo for beta thalassemia, Skysona for cerebral adrenoleukodystrophy, Yescarta and Breyanzi for Non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Tecartus for mantle cell lymphoma, and Carvykti and Abecma for multiple myeloma.
Liquid biopsies, blood tests via molecular diagnostic testing are enabling the early detection of colorectal cancer which, if discovered at or before stage 1, have a five-year survival rate greater than 90%. Late-stage or metastatic cancers account for more than 55% of deaths over a five-year period, but only 17% of new diagnoses.
Autonomous Technology & Robotics
During 2022 electric vehicle maker Tesla sales increased by 49% even as automobile sales declined by 8%. Tesla’s share of total auto sales in the US has increased to 3.8% from 1.4% in three years.
During 2022, GM expanded its autonomous driving taxi service to most of San Francisco in the first large-scale rollout in a major US city. Then it launched in both Phoenix and Austin late in the year. The automaker with a stodgy reputation, managed to compress the time to commercialization from nine years in San Francisco to just 90 days in Austin. Tesla, for its part, expanded access to its FSD (full self-driving) beta software to all owners in North America who had requested access.
By January 4, 2023, both Amazon and Walmart had begun deliveries using drones in select US cities. Autonomous logistics technology is no longer futuristic and is likely to continue being adopted and expanded.
Across the top 50 medical device companies, 90% rely on 3D printing for prototyping, testing, and even in some cases printing medical devices.
In 2022, SpaceX nearly doubled the number of rockets it launched to 61. It reused the same rocket in as few as 21 days, a dramatic improvement over the 356 days required for its first rocket reuse. Private Space Exploration is a reality. 61 rockets is an average of more than one per week.
Take Away
Hedge fund manager Cathie Wood took the new year as an opportunity to communicate examples of game-changing innovation that the equity market largely ignored in 2022. She finds these as confidence building that the premise of many of her managed funds is with merit. More importantly, in the face of market headwinds and media criticism, she wants these examples to help boost investor confidence “that ARK’s strategies are on the right side of change.” She tells readers, “innovation solves problems and has historically gained share during turbulent times.”
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Contract. The GEO Group was awarded a contract from the Department of Justice and Community Safety in the State of Victoria for the delivery of primary health services across 13 public prisons. The contract will commence on July 1, 2023 and is expected to generate approximately $33 million in incremental annualized revenue for GEO. We view the new contract as a nice compliment to the existing operations.
A New (Old) Business. This is a return of GEO to a business previously conducted by the Company. The Company held this contract before being forced to spin off the unit once becoming a REIT. GEO already provides these services in the facilities it manages and the new contract is just an expansion to other non-managed facilities. There should not be any “learning curve,” in our view.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
What’s a ‘Gig’ Job? How it’s Legally Defined Affects Workers’ Rights and Protections
The “gig” economy has captured the attention of technology futurists, journalists, academics and policymakers.
“Future of work” discussions tend toward two extremes: breathless excitement at the brave new world that provides greater flexibility, mobility and entrepreneurial energy, or dire accounts of its immiserating impacts on the workers who labor beneath the gig economy’s yoke.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of David Weil, Visiting Senior Faculty Fellow, Ash Center for Democracy Harvard Kennedy School / Professor, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University.
These widely diverging views may be partly due to the many definitions of what constitutes “gig work” and the resulting difficulties in measuring its prevalence. As an academic who has studied workplace laws for decades and ran the federal agency that enforces workplace protections during the Obama administration, I know the way we define, measure and treat gig workers under the law has significant consequences for workers. That’s particularly true for those lacking leverage in the labor market.
While there are benefits for workers for this emerging model of employment, there are pitfalls as well. Confusion over the meaning and size of the gig workforce – at times the intentional work of companies with a vested economic interest – can obscure the problems gig status can have on workers’ earnings, workplace conditions and opportunities.
Defining Gig Work
Many trace the phrase “gig economy” to a 2009 essay in which editor and author Tina Brown proclaimed: “No one I know has a job anymore. They’ve got Gigs.”
Although Brown focused on professional and semiprofessional workers chasing short-term work, the term soon applied to a variety of jobs in low-paid occupations and industries. Several years later, the rapid ascent of Uber, Lyft and DoorDash led the term gig to be associated with platform and digital business models. More recently, the pandemic linked gig work to a broader set of jobs associated with high turnover, limited career prospects, volatile wages and exposure to COVID-19 uncertainties.
The imprecision of gig, therefore, connotes different things: Some uses focus on the temporary or “contingent” nature of the work, such as jobs that may be terminated at any time, usually at the discretion of the employer. Other definitions focus on the unpredictability of work in terms of earnings, scheduling, hours provided in a workweek or location. Still other depictions focus on the business structure through which work is engaged – a staffing agency, digital platform, contractor or other intermediary. Further complicating the definition of gig is whether the focus is on a worker’s primary source of income or on side work meant to supplement income.
Measuring Gig Work
These differing definitions of gig work have led to widely varying estimates of its prevalence.
A conservative estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics household-based survey of “alternative work arrangements” suggests that gig workers “in non-standard categories” account for about 10% of employment. Alternatively, other researchers estimate the prevalence as three times as common, or 32.5%, using a Federal Reserve survey that broadly defines gig work to include any work that is temporary and variable in nature as either a primary or secondary source of earnings. And when freelancing platform Upworks and consulting firm McKinsey & Co. use a broader concept of “independent work,” they report rates as high as 36% of employed respondents.
No consensus definition or measurement approach has emerged, despite many attempts, including a 2020 panel report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Various estimates do suggest several common themes, however: Gig work is sizable, present in both traditional and digital workplaces, and draws upon workers across the age, education, demographic and skill spectrum.
Why it Matters
As the above indicates, gig workers can range from high-paid professionals working on a project-to-project basis to low-wage workers whose earnings are highly variable, who work in nonprofessional or semiprofessional occupations and who accept – by choice or necessity – volatile hours and a short-term time commitment from the organization paying for that work.
Regardless of their professional status, many workers operating in gig arrangements are classified as independent contractors rather than employees. As independent contractors, workers lose rights to a minimum wage, overtime and a safe and healthy work environment as well as protections against discrimination and harassment. Independent contractors also lose access to unemployment insurance, workers’ compensation and paid sick leave now required in many states.
Federal and state laws differ in the factors they draw on to make that call. A key concept underlying that determination is how “economically dependent” the worker is on the employer or contracting party. Greater economic independence – for example, the ability to determine price of service, how and where tasks are done and opportunities for expanding or contracting that work based on the individual’s own skills, abilities and enterprise – suggest a role as an independent contractor.
In contrast, if the hiring party basically calls the shots – for example, controlling what the individual does, how they do their work and when they do it, what they are permitted to do and not do, and what performance is deemed acceptable – this suggests employee status. That’s because workplace laws are generally geared toward employees and seek to protect workers who have unequal bargaining leverage in the labor market, a concept based on long-standing Supreme Court precedent.
Making Work More Precarious
Over the past few decades, a growing number of low-wage workers find themselves in gig work situations – everything from platform drivers and delivery personnel to construction laborers, distribution workers, short-haul truck drivers and home health aides. Taken together, the grouping could easily exceed 20 million workers.
Many companies have incentives to classify these workers as independent contractors in order to reduce costs and risks, not because of a truly transformed nature of work where those so classified are real entrepreneurs or self-standing businesses.
Since gig work tends to be volatile and contingent, losing employment protections amplifies the precariousness of work. A business using misclassified workers can gain cost advantages over competitors who treat their workers as employees as required by the law. This competitive dynamic can spread misclassification to new companies, industries and occupations – a problem we addressed directly, for example, in construction cases when I led the Wage and Hour Division and more recently in several health care cases.
The future of work is not governed by immutable technological forces but involves volitional private and public choices. Navigating to that future requires weighing the benefits gig work can provide some workers with greater economic independence against the continuing need to protect and bestow rights for the many workers who will continue to play on a very uneven playing field in the labor market.
Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A New Acquisition. Yesterday, Tokens.com’s subsidiary Metaverse Group announced the acquisition of CocoNFT. As part of the acquisition, Coco’s co-founders Mark Allen and Brody Berson will be joining the Metaverse Group as Chief Technology Officer and Chief Product Officer respectively and will be focused with building further tools and products for both NFT and virtual world applications. No financial details were given for the transaction.
Detail on CocoNFT. CocoNFT is a software platform that allows users to connect their Instagram to mint NFTs, leveraging the blockchain and a web3 wallet. In acquiring the company, Metaverse Group will work to advance Coco’s technology offering and integrate the products with its virtual world B2B offerings. The acquisition will leverage Coco’s strategic partnerships in Opensea and Rarible and online communities with over 45,000 followers across TikTok and Twitter.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Third Quarter Results. Third quarter revenue totaled $101,235, down from $448,976 in the same period last year, as staking revenue dropped to $53,972 from $417,572 last year. On the positive side, Tokens.com reported two new revenue streams-leasing and gaming. Leasing revenue totaled $49,871 while gaming contributed $4,892. Operating loss was at $879.430 versus last year’s $167,331. Net loss for the Company was $1.8 million, or a loss of $0.02 per share versus net income of $4.1 million, or $0.05 per share.
Truncated Full Year Results. As the Company has switched its year-end to September 30 from December 31, Tokens also reported truncated full year results. For the nine months, revenue totaled $678,269 compared to $1.08 million in the same period last year. Operating loss was $2.0 million compared to $5.2 million. Net loss was $5.9 million, or a loss of $0.06 per share, compared to a net loss of $8.3 million, or a net loss of $0.12 per share last year.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Caroline Ellison Now Enters a New Stage of Her Young Life
Caroline Ellison, the 28-year-old former CEO of Alameda Research, pleaded guilty to seven criminal charges, including wire fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud, according to her plea agreement, signed Monday. Caroline, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm with close ties to FTX, is said to face up to 115 years in prison. Her admitted role in allowing customer funds to flow through an electronic “backdoor” to be used by Sam Bankman Fried (SBF) of FTX tells us a little bit about her recent past, but who is Ms. Ellison, and how did she get to be CEO of Alameda?
What is Alameda Research?
SBF’s portfolio of crypto companies started with his founding of Alameda research in 2017. Alameda Research was, until very recently, a cryptocurrency trading firm known to specialize in quantitative research and providing liquidity to cryptocurrency and digital assets markets.
Ellison joined the Alameda team as a trader in 2018 and became its co-CEO in 2021.
Bankman-Fried had started Alameda Research as a high-risk, high-reward crypto trading firm using high-risk tactics. He has admitted he included “research” in the name to give it a better vibe. In an NPR podcast in 2017, he was shown to be aggressively taking advantage of the “wild west” crypto playing field. SBF grew his crypto-related business into more complex cryptocurrency trading, accessible to the masses, with his founding of FTX, a crypto exchange, in 2019. He did this by leveraging his image as highly experienced in crypto, which helped him to raise money from firms like BlackRock.
Who Is Caroline Ellison?
In a now-removed YouTube video and podcast, Caroline discussed her background and upbringing in an FTX public relations-type interview dated July 2020.
The 28-year-old Ellison grew up outside of Boston in a town called Newton. Her parents are professors, Glenn Ellison, her father, is a professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), and Sara Fischer Ellison lectures at the prestigious school.
Ellison said in the podcast that she inherited a natural aptitude for math and entered math competitions at a young age. She further would demonstrate that she was some kind of prodigy by telling people that by age five, she read a Harry Potter book by herself. “I refused to wait for my parents to read it [to me],” she said.
She went on to major in math at Stanford. After applying for trading internships, a field that is very competitive for new graduates, she landed at Jane Street Capital, a well-respected firm on Wall Street. After her internship, she worked there for a year and a half.
Is Caroline Elliman or was Caroline Elliman Sam Bankman Fried’s girlfriend? There are sources that say that Ellison met Bankman-Fried at Jane Street. He worked there from June 2014 to September 2017, according to his LinkedIn, which is still live and has 28,250 followers.
Ellison said she learned about Alameda over coffee with then-CEO Bankman-Fried while visiting the Bay Area and decided “it seemed like too cool of an opportunity to pass up.” She joined the company in 2018.
Bankman-Fried would then resign as CEO of Alameda but retained his role as CEO of FTX. In October 2021, Ellison became co-CEO with Sam Trabucco, a former trader at Susquehanna International Group.
Trabucco resigned in August 2022 to “spend a lot of time traveling,” according to one of his tweets, saying he “bought a boat.”
Was There Romance Between Ellison and SBF?
When a book about this is written, and the movie is out, it will include sex.
There have been rumors of polyamory. This is a relationship behavior that involves connections with more than one person. According to a Coindesk article from November, among the FTX executives, in the Bahamas, “All 10 are, or used to be, paired up in romantic relationships with each other.” There have also been suggestions that FTX employees and Bankman-Fried spent lavishly on the island, from yachts to thousands of dollars a day on catering.
Take Away
Financial fraud comes in many forms. Often it starts out innocently when a bad trade happens, someone tries to cover it up, and the markets don’t cooperate to bail out the bad trade, then more illegal actions are taken to cover that up. There have also been situations where unqualified, not experienced persons are in charge and either unaware of the magnitude of their deceptive actions or are following orders, perhaps just going along because others are doing it too. Then there are those that enjoy the attention they get by being out front and sharing wealth and buying fame. Another more common deceit is someone who is just plain old greedy. All are criminal.
I am not sure what the driver was in the Alameda/FTX, SBF Caroline Ellison (and others) case, but I am sure we will hear much more about this. As we do, remember the importance of trusting those you conduct business with and questioning them anyway.
Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. (KNDI), headquartered in Jinhua Economic Development Zone, Zhejiang Province, is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of various vehicular products. Kandi conducts its primary business operations through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Zhejiang Kandi Technologies Group Co., Ltd. (“Zhejiang Kandi Technologies”), formerly, Zhejiang Kandi Vehicles Co., Ltd.) and its subsidiaries including Zhejiang Kandi Smart Battery Swap Technology Co., Ltd, and SC Autosports, LLC (d/b/a Kandi America), the wholly-owned subsidiary of Kandi in the United States, and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Kandi America Investment, LLC. Zhejiang Kandi Technologies has established itself as one of China’s leading manufacturers of pure electric vehicle parts and off-road vehicles.
Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Kandi received a letter of intent from Coleman Powersports to purchase 4,800 electric golf carts for a value of $27.6 million. Coleman Powersports, a division of Newell Brands (a distributor of various camping and outdoor living gear) began purchasing the Kandi golf carts in April for sales through Lowes stores and has increased the order volume steadily up to a rate of 1,000 in September. The sales to Coleman are expected to occur in the 2023 first quarter and thus represent an 60% increase in orders for Coleman over September sales.
What does this mean for Kandi? The Off-road vehicle segment is the fastest growing division of Kandi growing more than 400% year over year in the September quarter. What’s more, it is the most profitable division for the company with operating margins in excess of 25%. The company has shifted attention away from electric cars and towards off-road vehicles and the shift has clearly paid off. The fact that the sales are going to established brand names such as Coleman and Lowes is significant and lends credence of future sales growth.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Investor Call. Earlier this week, DLH management hosted a conference call to discuss the acquisition of Grove Resource Solutions. We came away from the call even more excited about the combination of the two firms and the significant growth potential. We believe this transaction to be a case of where one plus one equals more than three.
Rationale. In a sentence: GRSi offers significant expansion opportunities by broadening DLH’s capabilities thus providing access to mission-critical programs that are expected to accelerate growth, both near and long-term. Combining GRSi’s technical capabilities with DLH’s research expertise creates a highly differentiated solution offering, in our view.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Equity Analysts* (*But Were Afraid to Ask)
Determining the potential of a company stock involves more time and perhaps more understanding than the average self-directed investor can provide. Fortunately, there are investment analysts that specialize in equities and spend their days staying current on the industry, individual companies, and the risks associated with the overall market. The investment world is becoming more transparent as the work of these well-educated professionals has become more accessible to DIY investors.
Just what is it that equity analysts do, and how do individual and professional investors benefit from their work?
The Value of Equity Analysts
Equity analysts have a deep understanding of company financials. This begins with formal education, as most true analysts have an accounting background that may include an MBA and, in many cases, the highly esteemed Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.
In addition to being able to read and pull data for analysis from financials, they understand the industries they cover. This is important because external trends up or down in input prices or competition will impact the whole sector, including the companies they cover. A macro view of what is impacting the industry is foundational to understanding a company within the industry.
For individual investment opportunities, the analysts’ focus is on the equity portion of the capital structure, but understanding debt levels and factors that could impact debt financing is critical to building an overall financial picture. Comparing the financial structure to company goals and initiatives provides information on how realistic they may or may not be based on internal factors.
Using data from the past and present, an analyst will build a model tailored to the specific company. These models are usually detailed spreadsheets with many interconnections between the various categories. The models generally include industry growth trends, the company’s own numbers (past, current, and projected scenarios), and then what-if scenarios. Financial models are a tool used to estimate the valuation of the company, how it changes under various scenarios, and then compare the business to its peers.
Shocking a forecast for different risks is important to assess the overall risk to the forecast.
The main risks impact different industries differently. For example, a healthcare company may be more or less immune to inflation, a mining operation could benefit from it, and a hospitality-based business could be hurt by it. Analysts assess the potential impacts of known risks and weigh them into their evaluation.
Primary Risks
The primary risks impacting any industry could be thought of as Business Risks, the challenges of a particular company’s circumstances. This could include the ability to hire talent, legal changes that could be impactful, natural resource availability, etc.
Market Risk or systemic risk is the idea that a sinking stock market will weigh on all stocks. While an analyst may choose top performers if the price target assigned was from an evaluation under average market growth of X%, an actual experience of negative Y% is a risk to the forecast.
Sovereign Risk has become a much bigger concern as trading partners like Russia, and China has shown us that politics and business policies can greatly impact U.S. trading partners. This risk tends to be greater among large international companies.
Foreign Exchange Risk. An analyst will review the impact of conversion back to the native currency and profit impacts. They may even project whether customers could be lost if the U.S. dollar becomes too costly.
Inflation Risk, what might the impact be on the company under various possible scenarios? A company with a large inventory may actually go through a beneficial period while prices are rising.
Interest Rate Risk is the real threat of inflation because it typically raises the cost of money. If the company is a large borrower and will be rolling maturing debt at new interest rate levels, the analyst will determine how this impacts operating costs and profit going forward.
Liquidity Risk. If a company’s stock is not well followed and trades sporadically, selling shares to raise capital may be severely hindered and, therefore, negatively impact the company’s ability to finance its business plan. What is interesting to note here is that analyst coverage of a company by itself has been shown to improve a stock’s liquidity. This is because more information about companies, even if not positive, helps investors understand the company, its risks, and its value.
Equity analysts benefit investors (retail and institutional) that are looking for information and an evaluation from a professional to weigh against their own evaluation. But they also benefit issuers as their stock may get less attention if there is minimal quality information available.
Direct Access to Management
Analysts essentially have a hotline to the covered company’s CEO and CFO to ask questions and get details of any change within the company or outside change that may impact results. Most investors don’t have this, so relying on analysts takes on even more importance.
Nuances Known to Analysts
The best reason to check the thoughts and forecasts of a seasoned analyst as part of your own due diligence is that every company has so many moving parts. A good analyst will be aware of what a DIY investor won’t know about the company. For example, the veteran analysts that provide research to Channelchek. On an ongoing basis, they have their finger on the pulse of the companies they cover.
There’s an opportunity you will want to take advantage of on Wednesday, December 15. You will meet online the Wall Street Analysts who are behind the research published on Channelchek. During this no-cost meeting, the veteran analysts have been asked to uncover what they are looking at, especially as it relates to companies they are bullish on.
This could be a great kickoff to organizing your portfolio for 2023 as these analysts cover the less talked about and perhaps the most overlooked stocks – stocks with great potential and “nuance” that you may have missed.
Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Getting More Cash. Last week, Tokens.com announced the selling of some of the Company’s cryptocurrency inventory in favor of holding cash. This is due to the current volatile environment recently highlighted by the fall of FTX and BlockFi. We believe the selling of cryptocurrency will allow the Company to ride out the volatility of the market and allow the Company to be strategic in future coin purchases.
What Was Sold and Impact. In regards to what was sold from Tokens.com, the Company sold some of the staking rewards generated this year and its smaller non-core holdings of Oasis Rose, ANKR, Mana, and SHIB. The total gross proceeds of the sales is approximately CAD$1.4 million. The Company will now own less Layer 2 assets, although it will continue to focus on holding Layer 1 digital assets including Ethereum and Polkadot.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Acquisition. Last night, DLH announced the acquisition of privately-held Grove Resource Solutions (GRSi). The acquisition broadens DLH’s digital transformation and IT modernization solutions, paving the way for new growth opportunities, in our view. GRSi provides a broad array of cloud-based enterprise modernization and cyber security solutions to numerous civilian and military federal agencies.
Details. Cost is $185 million, broken out to $178 million of cash and $7 million of DLH equity. Net cost after transaction-related tax benefits is $157.9 million. GRSi is expect to add $140 million of revenue and $18.5 million of EBITDA in year one and is expected to be accretive in fiscal 2024. The purchase price is approximately 10x 2023 projected EBITDA, or 8.5x after including tax benefits. The acquisition is being financed through an expansion of DLH’s credit facility.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Will Asset Managers Start Stepping Back from ESG Pledges?
The Net Zero Asset Managers (NAZM) initiative is an international group of 291 asset managers with 66 trillion in combined AUM. They all signed that they are committed to supporting the goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 or sooner. This week the number of asset managers was reduced by one as Vanguard, with $8.1 trillion AUM left the agreement. Vanguard said it made the decision in an effort to better speak for itself on its views and to be certain to balance client’s needs and returns along with climate impact in its funds’ investments.
“Industry initiatives like NZAM can advance constructive dialogue, but they can also create confusion about the views of individual firms. We want to provide greater clarity that Vanguard speaks freely on important matters such as climate risk. After a considerable period of review, we have decided to withdraw from the NZAM in order to provide clarity on what our investors want about the role of index funds and how we think about material risks, including climate-related risk,” said Alyssa Thornton, a spokesperson for Vanguard.
Firms that have signed the NAZM agreement are coming under a lot of pressure from states, pension funds, and others to defend how this is measurably best for the assets left in the care of the manager.
Vanguard, the world’s top mutual fund manager, official statement read, “We have decided to withdraw from NZAM so that we can provide the clarity our investors desire about the role of index funds and about how we think about material risks, including climate-related risks—and to make clear that Vanguard speaks independently on matters of importance to our investors.” Again, the themes are to not be beholden to outside control over its decisions and the company developing its own measurements of material risks from world energy-related moves.
Vanguard, said the change “will not affect our commitment to helping our investors navigate the risks that climate change can pose to their long-term returns.”
Is This Going to Be a Trend?
There is a movement growing with large clients asking investment firms to explain how their energy-investment-related decision is in line with their fiduciary role. Roughly a week ago, Consumers’ Research and 13 state attorneys general asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to review Vanguard’s request to own energy company stocks. “Americans are paying sky-high electricity rates and companies like Vanguard are making the problem worse,” Will Hild, executive director of Consumers’ Research, wrote in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal.
Another issue Hild has with Vanguard is its meddling with strategic decisions and corporate governance at energy firms. Hild wrote, “With more than $7 trillion in assets under management, the Pennsylvania-based investment firm has publicly committed to pressuring utilities to lower their emissions.” Hild then accused, “Vanguard appears to be not only putting America’s critical infrastructure at risk but violating its agreement only to control utility company shares passively. To protect U.S. consumers and safeguard national security, FERC should investigate the company’s conduct.”
Vanguard isn’t the only firm of the 291 that are being questioned by their largest customers.
Today North Carolina State Treasurer Dale Folwell sent a letter to BlackRock’s board of directors calling for Fink to step aside because the CEO’s “pursuit of a political agenda has gotten in the way of BlackRock’s same fiduciary duty” to its investors. “A focus on ESG is not a focus on returns and could potentially force us to violate our fiduciary duty,” Folwell wrote. North Carolina has approximately $14 billion with Blackrock, and $111 billion under management.
BREAKING: North Carolina Treasurer @DaleFolwell just called for @BlackRock CEO Larry Fink to RESIGN, saying his obsession with driving ESG and net-zero objectives is at odds with BlackRock’s fiduciary duty to shareholders.https://t.co/LeGIfn9CJd
But the fiduciary knife can be cut both ways. Those that are more concerned with any impact that continued fossil-fuel use would have on climate and economies stand behind the argument that it is not in anyone’s best interest not to follow a net zero 2050 goal. “It is unfortunate that political pressure is impacting this crucial economic imperative and attempting to block companies from effectively managing risks — a crucial part of their fiduciary duty,” said Kirsten Snow Spalding, a vice president at sustainability nonprofit Ceres and a NZAM founding partner.
Meanwhile in order to be able to best decipher how to view concepts like net zero investing, the Texas Senate Committee on State Affairs will hold a hearing on December 15 to discuss the impacts of environmental social governance (ESG) policies on state pensions. The panel has asked Vanguard, BlackRock, StateStreet and ISS to appear and answer questions about their ESG practices. Texas previously asked the four firms to turn over documents in August. The Lone Star state had subpoenaed BlackRock to provide additional documents in person after the firm failed to comply with certain aspects of the initial request.
Take Away
All trends, whether investment related or not go through a vetting period, followed by a continued push and pull to seek balance. Firms that have signed on to NAZM can do their own analysis and develop their own plans that best serve their customers. The NZAM may only get in the way. Yet, they don’t have to back-off of caring about and keeping in mind environmental principles, they can just better tailor them to those they are contracted to invest for. An outside global organization is less likely to understand how to be a fiduciary for a Vanguard fund that may be used in the Louisiana state pension system. And with more investment firms acting independently, more and better opportunities will grow from the competition.
ESG, which is in a related family, will also develop and evolve over time. Down the road, investors, analysts, and organizations providing ESG scoring can get revised measures on impact and adjust scoring based on effectiveness.
