Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Bitcoin Surges Past $50,000 For First Time in Over 2 Years

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The price of bitcoin has crossed over the psychologically important $50,000 level this week for the first time since December 2021. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization rallied roughly 15% over the past week to hit $50,000 on Monday afternoon, riding a wave of bullish sentiment in crypto markets.

Several factors are contributing to bitcoin’s renewed momentum above $50,000. Firstly, the recent launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has provided a boost to bitcoin prices. These ETFs, which hold actual bitcoin rather than bitcoin futures, have seen strong inflows from investors. According to data from Bloomberg, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their second largest day of inflows last Friday, totaling over $540 million.

The two largest bitcoin ETFs – BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust – have accumulated substantial assets after only one month of trading. The combination of easy access to bitcoin exposure through these ETFs along with optimism around the scheduled halving event in 2024 seems to be driving enthusiasm and higher prices.

The upcoming bitcoin halving, expected to occur in mid-2024, will see the bitcoin mining reward cut in half from 6.25 bitcoin per block currently to 3.125 bitcoin. This quadrennial event has historically been bullish for bitcoin prices over the long-term. According to a recent report from Grayscale Investments, while the halving poses challenges to miners in the form of reduced block rewards, innovations like Layer 2 scaling solutions could offset this by lowering transaction fees and enhancing throughput.

Beyond market structure changes like the ETFs and the halving, bitcoin also received a small boost from a geopolitical event last week. The re-election of pro-bitcoin President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador for another 5 year term was cheered by cryptocurrency advocates. El Salvador under Bukele was the first country to make bitcoin legal tender in 2021. While Bukele’s visions of a bitcoin-powered economy have stumbled, his re-election signals continued support.

After hitting the historic $50,000 mark, bitcoin pulled back modestly but has remained firmly above $48,000 over the past few days. The key question now is whether bitcoin can rise and continue trading stably above $50,000, which would signal a definitive change in market structure according to analysts.

Take a moment to take a look at Bit Digital, a large-scale bitcoin mining business and a sustainability focused generator of digital assets.

Previous rallies above $50,000 over the past two years have been short-lived, with bitcoin failing to establish support at those levels. In March 2022, bitcoin briefly topped $48,000 before slipping back down. And in early January this year, bitcoin hit $50,000 but quickly dropped below $45,000 within days.

This time, bitcoin investors are hopeful that conditions are ripe for bitcoin to finally break out above $50,000. Analysts at Bernstein recently predicted a “fear of missing out” or FOMO rally in bitcoin, as momentum builds following the breach of $50,000. However, bitcoin remains highly volatile, as evidenced by its drop from all-time highs near $69,000 in November 2021 down to below $20,000 by the end of 2022.

Market analysts will be monitoring key support and resistance levels, like the 200-day moving average near $46,500. As long as bitcoin can avoid dropping below these key technical levels, the bullish case remains intact. But buyers will need to maintain consistent support above $50,000 and catalyze follow-on demand in order for this latest move higher to be sustainable. Other factors like rising interest rates and broad macroeconomic uncertainty still pose downside risks.

Nonetheless, the combination of factors lining up in bitcoin’s favor – the surging interest and inflows into spot ETFs, optimistic narrative around the halving, and the breakout above $50,000 – has many crypto investors calling this bitcoin’s next bull run. As bitcoin solidifies its status within mainstream finance and garners attention from major institutional players like BlackRock and Fidelity, the dynamics appear to be changing in favor of greater price stability and less volatility. But bitcoin’s freewheeling ways are difficult to tame. We will soon find out in the coming weeks and months if bitcoin has finally matured enough to leave its past boom and bust cycles behind.

New Inflation Data Shows Prices Still Rising, Clouding Path for Fed Rate Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest inflation data released Tuesday shows consumer prices rose more than expected in January, defying forecasts for a faster slowdown. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3% over December and rose 3.1% over the last year, down slightly from December’s 3.4% pace but above economist predictions.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also came in hotter than anticipated at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% annually. Shelter prices were a major contributor, with the shelter index climbing 0.6% in January, accounting for over two-thirds of the overall monthly increase. On an annual basis, shelter costs rose 6%.

While used car and energy prices fell, persistent strength in housing and services indicates inflation remains entrenched in the economy. This could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans to pivot to rate cuts this year after aggressively raising interest rates in 2023 to combat inflation.

Markets are currently pricing in potential Fed rate cuts beginning as early as May, with around five quarter-point decreases projected through end of 2024. However, Tuesday’s inflation data casts doubt on an imminent policy shift. Many Fed officials have signaled a more gradual approach, with only two or three cuts likely this year.

The hotter CPI print pushed stocks sharply lower in early trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling over 250 points. Meanwhile, Treasury yields surged higher on expectations for sustained Fed tightening.

Inflation-adjusted wages also fell 0.3% month-over-month when factoring in a decline in average workweek hours. While inflation may be peaking, price increases continue to erode household purchasing power.

Shelter costs present a tricky situation for policymakers. Rental and housing inflation tend to lag other price moves, meaning further gains are likely even if overall inflation slows. And shelter carries significant weighting in the Fed’s preferred core PCE index.

While annual PCE inflation has fallen below 4%, the six-month annualized rate remains near the Fed’s 2% target. Tuesday’s data provides a reality check that the battle against inflation is not yet won.

To tame housing inflation, the Fed may have to accept some economic pain in the form of job losses and supply chain stress. So far, the resilience of the labor market and strong consumer demand has kept the economy humming along.

But the cumulative impact of 2023’s aggressive tightening is still working its way through the economy. Eventually, restrictive policy normally triggers a recession as demand falls and unemployment rises.

The Fed is walking a tightrope, trying to curb price increases without severely damaging growth. But persistent inflationary pressures leave little room for a swift policy reversal.

Rate cuts later this year are still possible, but will depend on compelling evidence that core inflation is on a sustainable downward path toward the Fed’s 2% goal. Until shelter and services costs normalize, additional rate hikes can’t be ruled out.

Markets cling to hopes that falling goods prices and easing supply chain strains will open the door for Fed easing. But policymakers remain laser-focused on services inflation, particularly in housing.

Overall, the January inflation data signals the Fed’s inflation fight is far from over. While markets may yearn for rate cuts, persistent price pressures suggest a longer road ahead before policy can substantively turn dovish.

Gilead Sciences Acquires CymaBay Therapeutics for $4.3 Billion in Cash

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gilead Sciences announced Monday that it will acquire clinical-stage biotech CymaBay Therapeutics for $4.3 billion, gaining seladelpar, an investigational treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) that is currently under FDA priority review.

PBC is a progressive autoimmune disease that damages the bile ducts in the liver, causing bile acid buildup that can lead to irreversible scarring and liver failure. An estimated 130,000 Americans live with PBC, which mostly affects women over 40.

CymaBay’s seladelpar is an oral selective peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor delta (PPARδ) agonist that targets metabolic and inflammatory pathways involved in PBC. Data from late-stage studies demonstrate seladelpar’s potential as a best-in-class therapy for second-line PBC patients who don’t respond adequately to first-line treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA).

The drug received breakthrough therapy and orphan drug designations from the FDA and EMA based on positive mid-stage results. In December 2022, CymaBay submitted a new drug application to the FDA, which was granted priority review last month. An approval decision is expected by August 14, 2024.

According to the phase 3 RESPONSE trial, seladelpar achieved significant improvements in reducing alkaline phosphatase levels and relieving itch symptoms compared to placebo. Nearly 62% of patients on seladelpar attained a biochemical response versus 20% on placebo.

Gilead aims to leverage its extensive experience in developing treatments for liver diseases like hepatitis C and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) to advance seladelpar. The deal expands Gilead’s presence in the PBC space, complementing its existing medicine Ocaliva, which is approved as a second-line option.

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“We are looking forward to advancing seladelpar by leveraging Gilead’s long-standing expertise in treating and curing liver diseases,” commented Gilead CEO Daniel O’Day. “Building on the strong R&D work by the CymaBay team, we have the potential to address a significant unmet need for people with PBC.”

Under the terms of the agreement, Gilead will commence a tender offer to acquire all outstanding CymaBay shares at $32.50 per share in cash, representing a 27% premium over the stock’s closing price on February 9. Following the tender offer, Gilead will mop up any untendered shares via a second-step merger at the same price.

The deal is anticipated to close in the first quarter of 2024, subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory clearances. Once the transaction is completed, CymaBay will become a wholly owned subsidiary of Gilead.

Gilead expects the buyout will boost its top-line revenue growth, while being neutral to earnings per share in 2025 before turning significantly accretive thereafter.

For CymaBay, the takeover marks the culmination of years of effort advancing seladelpar into late-stage testing and regulatory review. “Now that seladelpar has achieved priority review with the FDA, we are excited that Gilead can apply its expertise to bring seladelpar as quickly as possible to people with PBC,” noted CymaBay CEO Sujal Shah.

The profitable exit provides a major return for CymaBay investors, as the purchase price represents a substantial premium over the stock’s pre-announcement valuation. CymaBay shares have languished below $4 for much of the past two years.

Gilead has actively pursued M&A to augment its pipeline and product portfolio across therapeutic areas like oncology, inflammation, and antivirals. The company faces looming patent expiries on flagship HIV medicines. New growth drivers like seladelpar could help offset that impact.

PBC currently affects a relatively small patient population, but analysts project seladelpar could generate peak annual sales above $1 billion. Gilead likely sees potential to expand seladelpar’s utility to other cholestatic liver diseases.

Nonetheless, the deal does carry risks for Gilead. Seladelpar’s broad mechanism regulating gene expression raises safety concerns about potential side effects. Patients in late-stage testing experienced elevations in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

By acquiring CymaBay outright, Gilead shoulders all future R&D costs rather than opting for a partnership deal to share expenses. If seladelpar encounters any regulatory or commercial setbacks, Gilead lacks an immediate fallback option for its PBC program.

But with priority review underway and approval expected within six months, Gilead moved aggressively to lock up rights to a promising PBC candidate. Adding seladelpar provides another growth avenue beyond HIV and bolsters Gilead’s mission of delivering transformative medicines for underserved diseases.

Diamondback Energy Makes Massive $26 Billion Bet on Permian Basin with Acquisition of Endeavor Energy

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Texas-based Diamondback Energy announced Monday that it will purchase Endeavor Energy Partners, the largest privately held oil and gas producer in the prolific Permian Basin, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $26 billion including debt.

The deal represents one of the largest energy sector acquisitions announced so far in 2024 and highlights the ongoing consolidation in the Permian as companies seek scale and improved efficiencies. Once completed, the merged company will be the third-largest producer in the basin behind only oil majors ExxonMobil and Chevron.

“Diamondback has proven itself to be a premier low-cost operator in the Permian Basin over the last 12 years, and this combination allows us to bring this cost structure to a larger asset base and allocate capital to a stronger pro forma inventory position,” said Travis Stice, CEO of Diamondback, in a statement.

The combined company is projected to pump 816,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), with Diamondback estimating $550 million in annual cost savings. Diamondback shareholders will own approximately 60.5% of the new entity, while Endeavor owners will hold the remaining 39.5% stake.

The Permian Basin is located in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have transformed the Permian into the most prolific oil field in the United States, responsible for about 40% of the country’s crude output.

The Diamondback-Endeavor deal is the latest in a string of major transactions aimed at consolidating Permian assets. In January, Exxon announced the purchase of independent producer Pioneer Natural Resources in a $60 billion agreement. Earlier in 2023, Permian drillers Civitas Resources and Colgate Energy revealed an all-stock merger valued at $7 billion.

Endeavor operates in the Midland sub-basin on the Texas side of the Permian, with its acreage located adjacent to existing Diamondback properties. This geographic overlap should allow for significant synergies as the companies integrate operations, infrastructure and drilling inventory.

Diamondback management highlighted Endeavor’s status as one of the Permian’s lowest-cost producers as a key rationale behind the acquisition. Folding Endeavor’s assets into Diamondback’s portfolio should lower overall expenses and boost cash flow on a per-share basis.

The merged company will hold approximately 1.1 million net acres in the Permian Basin and control over 2 billion barrels of recoverable oil equivalent resources. This expanded footprint provides enhanced scale for Diamondback to fund further development.

“This combination allows us to bring this cost structure to a larger asset base and allocate capital to a stronger pro forma inventory position,” noted Stice.

While offering enticing synergies, the partnership also carries risks if oil prices decline significantly from current levels near $80 per barrel. Diamondback is assuming roughly $7 billion of Endeavor’s debt as part of the transaction.

However, the substantial cost efficiencies and expanded production capacity position the newly merged business well for strong free cash flow generation, even in a lower price environment.

The deal is expected to close in Q4 2024 after customary approvals. Shares of Diamondback were up nearly 3% in Monday morning trading on news of the acquisition. The transaction continues the consolidation wave among Permian Basin independents as companies strive to improve margins and gain scale.

For Diamondback, the bold bet on Endeavor represents an opportunity to solidify its status as a Permian leader, while acquiring premium assets that should drive growth for years to come. The combined corporation will boast immense resources, significant capital flexibility and a management team with a proven track record in the basin.

Take a moment to take a look at a few emerging growth energy companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage list.

What Investors Can Learn From the Super Bowl

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

This Sunday, over 100 million viewers will tune in to the Super Bowl, the biggest single sporting event of the year. The Super Bowl is about more than just football – it’s a cultural phenomenon that offers some interesting parallels to the world of investing. Here are a few key lessons investors can take away from the gridiron action.

Do Your Research

Top NFL teams like the Chiefs and 49ers do endless hours of film study, analyzing their opponents’ strengths and weaknesses. Similarly, successful investors research companies thoroughly before buying shares. They dig into financial statements, study industry trends and competitive dynamics, and evaluate leadership. Just as teams dissect game tape, investors need to do their homework before putting money on the line.

Stick to Your Game Plan

NFL teams map out detailed game plans listing the plays and strategies they will employ against a given opponent. But when things go awry during a game, emotions can take over and teams may abandon their plan. Investors face the same challenge. When market volatility spikes, it’s easy to panic and stray from your investment strategy. But patience and trusting your game plan, like asset allocation and time horizons, tends to pay off in the long run.

Remember Past Performance Doesn’t Guarantee Future Success

The 49ers and Chiefs have been among the hottest teams this season. But past performance doesn’t guarantee victory in the Super Bowl. Likewise, investors should be wary of stocks that have recently soared. Valuations may already price in expected growth. And markets humbles previous high flyers all the time. Picking stocks based on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term momentum is the better bet.

Expect the Unexpected

From major injuries to fluke plays, the Super Bowl often hinges on unpredictable events. Investing also involves constant surprises that can disrupt even the most ironclad strategies. Political turmoil, natural disasters, new technologies – the market is always full of unknown unknowns. Having flexibility to adapt to unforeseen events helps minimize damage and take advantage of mispriced assets when volatility strikes.

Patience Is a Virtue

Building a championship roster takes years. Teams must strategically draft prospects, develop their skills, and assemble complementary pieces patiently over time. Becoming a successful investor also requires long-term commitment. There are few get-rich quick schemes that work. Compounding modest gains over decades through steady contributions is the surest path to building wealth. Keep your eyes on the long-term prize.

Minimize Costs and Taxes

NFL teams structure contracts and manage salary caps astutely to get the most bang for their buck. As an investor, costs and taxes also directly impact your net returns. Minimizing investment fees, trading commissions, and avoiding short-term capital gains taxes helps grow your portfolio. Every basis point counts.

Diversify Your Holdings

Smart NFL general managers build depth at every position. If injuries arise, the next player up can step in seamlessly. Similarly, investors should diversify across asset classes, sectors, geographies, and risk levels. If certain segments of the market decline, gains in other areas can offset the losses. Spreading your investments helps smooth out volatility.

Stay Disciplined and Stick to Your Strategy

The bright lights of the Super Bowl can cause teams to get away from their identity. The same thing happens to investors during periods of market turmoil. It’s crucial to stay disciplined, avoid emotional decisions, and stick to your long-term strategy even as others lose their nerve. Composure under pressure leads to victory.

Just as fans love dissecting every nuance of the big game, studying the market from all angles is key for investment success. Enjoy the Super Bowl, but also reflect on the winning lessons it provides for building wealth. Your portfolio will thank you.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Seeks Multi-Trillion Investment for AI Chip Development

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is reportedly seeking multi-trillion dollar investments to transform the semiconductor industry and accelerate AI chip development according to sources cited in a recent Wall Street Journal article. The ambitious plan would involve raising between $5 to $7 trillion to overhaul global chip fabrication and production capabilities focused on advanced AI processors.

If secured, this would represent the largest private investment for AI research and development in history. Altman believes increased access to specialized AI hardware is crucial for companies like OpenAI to build the next generation of artificial intelligence systems.

The massive capital infusion would allow a dramatic scaling up of AI chip manufacturing output. This aims to alleviate supply bottlenecks for chips used to power AI models and applications which are currently dominated by Nvidia GPUs.

Altman has been open about the need for expanded “AI infrastructure” including more chip foundries, data centers, and energy capacity. Developing a robust supply chain for AI hardware is seen as vital for national and corporate competitiveness in artificial intelligence in the coming years.

OpenAI has not confirmed the rumored multi-trillion dollar amount. However, Altman is currently meeting with investors globally, especially in the Middle East. The government of the United Arab Emirates is already onboard with the project.

By reducing reliance on any single vendor like Nvidia, OpenAI hopes to foster a more decentralized AI chip ecosystem if enough capital can be deployed to expand production capacity exponentially. This ambitious initiative points to a future where specialized AI processors could become as abundant and critical as microchips are today.

The semiconductor industry may need to prepare for major disruptions if OpenAI succeeds in directing unprecedented investment towards AI infrastructure. While Altman’s tactics have drawn criticism in the past, he has demonstrated determination to position OpenAI at the forefront of the AI chip race.

Altman ruffled some feathers previously by making personal investments in AI chip startups like Rain Neuromorphics while leading OpenAI. This led to accusations of conflict of interest which contributed to Altman’s temporary removal as CEO of OpenAI in November 2023.

Since returning as CEO, Altman has been working diligently to put OpenAI in the driver’s seat of the AI chip race. With billions or even trillions in new capital, OpenAI would have the funds to dominate R&D and exponentially increase chip production for the AI systems of tomorrow.

If realized, this plan could significantly shift the balance of power in artificial intelligence towards companies and nations that control the means of production of AI hardware. The winners of the AI era may be determined by who can mobilize the resources and infrastructure to take chip development to the next level.

AstraZeneca Shares Drop Despite Strong 2024 Outlook

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shares of pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca fell over 6% despite the company projecting double-digit growth for 2024. Investors were disappointed by AstraZeneca missing Q4 earnings expectations due to rising costs. However, smaller healthcare firms may offer more upside potential.

AstraZeneca reported fourth quarter core earnings per share of $1.45, below analyst estimates of $1.50. Higher research and development costs weighed on profits. Meanwhile, total revenue edged above expectations at $12.02 billion.

The company expects low double-digit percentage increases in both total revenue and core earnings per share in 2024. This robust guidance is driven by AstraZeneca’s oncology and rare disease drugs.

However, shares dropped as investors focused on the earnings miss and product mix in the latest quarterly results. While AstraZeneca maintains a strong long-term outlook, its scale and mature product portfolio limit rapid growth.

This has led some investors to turn their attention to younger healthcare companies in search of higher growth potential. Smaller biotechs and emerging medtech firms can offer more upside, albeit with higher risk.

For example, cancer immunotherapy developer Silverback Therapeutics went public in late 2020 and has seen its stock price triple over the last year. The company is advancing treatments that harness the body’s immune system to fight cancer.

Other high-growth areas include digital health, where newly public firms like GoodRx are disrupting pharmacy and drug pricing. And healthcare tech provider Oak Street Health has surged over 200% since its 2020 IPO.

These younger healthcare firms tend to have higher volatility compared to big pharmas like AstraZeneca. But their focus on new innovations and faster growth in underpenetrated markets make them appealing for growth-oriented investors.

However, due diligence is required as many of these stocks go on to underperform or even fail. Factors like clinical trial results, regulatory approvals, and market adoption can make or break emerging health stocks.

Diversification across multiple companies can help mitigate the risk. Investing in a healthcare-focused ETF is one method to gain diversified exposure to both mature drugmakers and higher-growth emerging stocks.

Additionally, many biotech and medtech IPOs have been impacted by the 2022/2023 bear market. This offers an opportunity for investors to buy promising stocks at lower valuations.

Overall, AstraZeneca maintains a healthy long-term outlook supported by its deep pipeline of new drugs. But near-term headwinds like rising costs and the latest earnings miss dragged shares lower.

This illustrates how even strong incumbent firms face challenges sustaining rapid growth. For investors seeking higher growth potential, carefully selected emerging healthcare stocks can provide more upside.

However, realizing this potential requires thorough due diligence. Not all emerging companies succeed, making diversification and patience key when investing in new healthcare names. But buying into the right stocks early can result in tremendous gains over the long-term.

The health sector’s constant innovation ensures exciting new companies will continue disrupting incumbents. While mature pharmas like AstraZeneca play a key role in the market, fast-growing upstarts are where outsized returns often lie.

US Treasury Yields Rise on Jobs Data

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

U.S. Treasury yields climbed higher on Thursday following the release of better-than-expected jobs data and recent commentary from Federal Reserve officials suggesting fewer interest rate cuts in 2024.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose over 6 basis points to 4.16%, while the 2-year Treasury yield added around 3 basis points to hit 4.45%. Yields move opposite to prices.

This rise in Treasury yields indicates bond investors are selling Treasuries, pushing the prices down and yields up, as expectations shift for future Fed policy.

The catalyst behind the latest move was a new Labor Department report showing initial jobless claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 218,000 last week. This reading came in below economist estimates of 220,000 claims and suggests ongoing resilience in the job market.

With employers holding onto workers and unemployment remaining low, it signals the labor market remains fairly tight. A tight job market gives the Fed less room to aggressively cut interest rates to spur economic growth.

The jobs data follows recent commentary from multiple Fed officials about interest rate policy in 2024.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said this week he expects only 2-3 rate cuts by the Fed next year, rather than his prior estimate of up to 5 cuts.

Similarly, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said she anticipates “a couple” of rate cuts in 2024 as inflation continues to moderate.

Markets are now scaling back expectations for the pace and magnitude of rate reductions next year.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell fueled this reassessment last week when he stated policymakers plan to take a cautious approach to cutting interest rates. He said they will be closely monitoring incoming economic data.

Powell’s remarks broke from his previously more dovish tone and put a damper on market hopes for a rate cut as early as March this year.

With the Fed’s benchmark rate currently at 4.5-4.75%, less aggressive rate cuts mean higher rates, and thus yields, for longer. This is the primary factor pushing Treasury yields higher right now.

The next major data point that could shift rate cut expectations will be January’s Consumer Price Index reading due next week.

If the CPI shows inflation pressures moderating further, it will boost the case for fewer Fed rate hikes. On the other hand, a hotter inflation print could put rate cuts later in 2024 back on the table.

Beyond the CPI, Treasury yields will remain sensitive to economic data releases, Fed official speeches, and signals about quantitative tightening in the coming months.

Quantitative tightening, the Fed’s move to reduce its balance sheet after years of asset purchases, is another form of monetary policy tightening along with rate hikes. The pace of QT could impact yields.

For now, Treasuries and the yield curve may face upward pressure if the labor market and consumer spending hold up better than expected. This gives the Fed room to keep rates higher for longer to ensure inflation continues trending down.

In turn, investors will demand higher yields on bonds to compensate for reduced expectations of the Fed cutting rates, driving yields upwards across the curve.

The direction yields take from here will come down to the interplay between incoming economic data and how Fed officials interpret it with regards to their tightening cycle. The months ahead will bring more clarity on whether the Fed can achieve a soft landing.

The Top 5 Western Oil Giants Are Courting Investors with Record Payouts Despite Profit Declines

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The biggest publicly traded oil companies in the West had a clear message for investors this earnings season: We’re going to keep paying you billions in dividends and stock buybacks, no matter how much our profits fluctuate.

BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell and TotalEnergies doled out over $111 billion to shareholders in 2023, an all-time record for the group, according to a Reuters analysis. This lavish payout comes even as the companies’ combined net profits sank 37% from 2022’s windfall heights of $196 billion.

It’s a calculated move to reassure investors, particularly major institutional shareholders like pension funds, that the oil supermajors still deserve a place in their portfolios despite LAST year’s stark reminder of the sector’s persistent volatility.

For over a decade, Big Oil has seen its status as a stalwart, dividend-paying pillar of investors’ portfolios slowly erode. The energy sector’s weighting in the S&P 500 index sat at just 4.4% in January, down dramatically from 14% in 2012.

Several factors catalyzed this decline: poor capital discipline leading to wasted spending and subsequent dividend cuts, huge swings in oil and gas prices, the rise of the tech sector, and growing concerns about oil’s role in climate change.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2023 sparked an unexpected fossil fuel rally, with Brent crude prices averaging over $100 per barrel and natural gas prices skyrocketing. The oil giants cashed in with their highest profits ever, starkly highlighting the sector’s persistent upside potential.

Now with economic headwinds buffeting energy markets, their mammoth payouts to shareholders seek to underscore oil’s reliability versus more speculative investments. “During a time of geopolitical turmoil and economic uncertainty, our objective remained unchanged: safely deliver higher returns and lower carbon,” said Chevron CEO Mike Wirth after announcing a 6% dividend increase.

Take a moment to take a look at emerging growth companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage list.

Besides dividends, oil majors are channeling these record buybacks to shareholders. Exxon Mobil alone spent $35 billion last year snapping up its own shares, while Shell has vowed “complete predictability” around shareholder returns.

This focus on payouts over production indicates Big Oil has absorbed the lessons of overspending on large-scale projects with uncertain demand outlooks. After former CEO John Browne spearheaded a failed push for aggressive growth at BP, lease write-downs of $60 billion soon followed.

Now with the transition to cleaner energy casting further uncertainty over long-term oil demand, companies are tightly rationing investment. Bernstein analyst Oswald Clint said investors “absolutely remember the sins of the past investment cycles and are pretty determined not to repeat those.”

While Exxon and Chevron are still expanding oil output, others like BP and Shell plan to cut production over this decade as part of their climate strategies. But all are aligning around far greater capital discipline and what they call “high-grading” their portfolios.

Rather than chasing growth, new projects must meet stricter hurdles for returns, emissions, and regulations. Tobias Wagner of Moody’s Investors Service expects only minimal investment increases industry-wide in 2024 given the cautious outlook.

So even as society decarbonizes, the oil supermajors are making a case that their stocks can still reward shareholders through the transition. Yet it remains to be seen whether investors who have fled the sector for greener pastures like clean energy and tech will find these guarantees compelling enough to return.

GM Commits $19 Billion Through 2035 to Secure EV Battery Materials From LG Chem

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

General Motors (GM) announced Wednesday its largest investment yet to lock up critical raw materials needed for its ambitious electric vehicle (EV) production plans. The Detroit automaker said it will spend $19 billion over the next decade to source cathode materials from South Korean supplier LG Chem.

The materials—including nickel, cobalt, manganese and aluminum—are key ingredients for the lithium-ion batteries that power EVs. Under the agreement spanning 2026-2035, LG Chem will ship over 500,000 tons of cathode materials to GM’s joint battery cell plants with LG spinoff Ultium Cells in the United States.

GM stated this is enough supply for approximately 5 million EVs with an estimated range of over 300 miles per charge. The materials will come from an LG Chem plant currently under construction in Tennessee.

For GM, signing a long-term purchase agreement helps mitigate risks around securing sufficient future EV battery supplies amid intensifying competition. As automakers collectively invest billions to shift their lineups to mostly EVs by 2030, critical mineral shortages could constrain production plans.

“This contract builds on GM’s commitment to create a strong, sustainable battery EV supply chain to support our fast-growing EV production needs,” said Jeff Morrison, GM vice president of global purchasing and supply chain.

The LG Chem deal ranks among the largest—if not the largest—EV supply contract inked by GM to date. It highlights an urgency by the company to lock up raw materials as the global auto industry accelerates its electric shift. GM aspires to exclusively sell EVs by 2035.

However, the 14-year LG Chem agreement also implies GM may be adapting its EV strategy to account for adoption happening slower than anticipated. The original pact was scheduled to expire in 2030, but GM extended it another five years.

After initially forecasting aggressive EV sales growth, GM has pulled back on targets amid steeping battery costs and strained consumer budgets. “We’re also being a little bit prudent about the pace at which the transition occurs,” said CEO Mary Barra.

Nonetheless, GM remains laser-focused on its EV future. It recently announced a $650 million investment to expand production of its profitable full-size SUVs—but as electric versions only by 2024. “We have the manufacturing flexibility to build EVs at scale,” said Barra.

For investors, GM’s major bet on EVs represents an opportunity to capitalize on the immense growth projected in the electric vehicle market over the next decade. Research firm IDTechEx forecasts the EV market will balloon from $287 billion in 2021 to over $1.3 trillion by 2031 as adoption accelerates globally. GM’s plan to phase out gas-powered cars and transition to an all-electric lineup positions it as a leading EV player in this booming new automotive era.

Meanwhile, LG Chem said it aims to “bolster cooperation with GM in the North American market” through the expanded cathode materials agreement. The supplier has jockeyed with China’s CATL for the title of world’s top EV battery maker.

For both LG and GM, ensuring cathode supply security with a US-based plant mitigates geopolitical risks. President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act requires automakers to source critical minerals domestically or from allies to qualify for EV tax credits.

While the road to an all-electric future remains bumpy, GM’s huge bet on sourcing vital battery ingredients shows its commitment to phasing out the internal combustion engine. As Barra stated, “We’re on our way to an all-electric portfolio.”

Take a look Comstock Inc., a company that innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization by converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products to balance carbon emissions.

Novartis Scoops Up MorphoSys in $2.9B Bid to Expand in Oncology

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Novartis made a big move this week to expand its oncology portfolio, announcing plans to acquire German biotech MorphoSys in an all-cash deal valued at approximately $2.9 billion. The proposed acquisition continues Novartis’ strategy of striking deals and partnerships to enhance its drug development capabilities, especially in cancer.

Under the terms of the agreement, Novartis will pay $73 per share to purchase all outstanding ordinary shares of MorphoSys, representing a premium of 37% over the biotech’s closing price on February 3rd. The deal has been unanimously approved by MorphoSys’ board and is expected to close in the first half of 2024, pending regulatory and shareholder approval.

Driving Novartis’ interest is MorphoSys’ lead pipeline candidate pelabresib, an investigational BET inhibitor being studied for myelofibrosis. Myelofibrosis is a type of bone marrow cancer that disrupts the body’s normal production of blood cells.

Pelabresib is currently in the Phase 3 MANIFEST-2 trial in combination with Incyte’s Jakafi for first-line myelofibrosis patients. While the trial posted mixed results in November, Novartis believes the data support a regulatory submission in the second half of 2024. The pharma giant sees pelabresib as having potential to be a “practice changing” myelofibrosis treatment.

Beyond pelabresib, MorphoSys brings other early-stage oncology assets that could strengthen Novartis’ position in blood cancers. However, the crown jewel of MorphoSys’ portfolio – its approved non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma drug Monjuvi – is not included in the acquisition. Just before the Novartis deal was announced, MorphoSys sold the global rights to Monjuvi to Incyte for $1.5 billion.

Novartis has been actively hunting for new drug programs and technology platforms to replenish its pipeline as patents expire over the next decade on blockbuster brands like Cosentyx and Entresto. The patent cliff threatens over 50% of Novartis’ current sales.

In 2022, the pharma giant established a $1 billion fund to invest in startups focused on potentially transformational medicines. It has also been open to large M&A, as seen last year with the $20.7 billion purchase of gene therapy biotech The Medicines Company.

The MorphoSys deal reinforces Novartis’ commitment to growing its oncology division, which accounted for over 30% of total sales in 2023. Earlier this year, Novartis acquired the oncology biotech Calypso for $335 million upfront.

From an investor perspective, the MorphoSys acquisition provides Novartis with multiple shots on goal in blood cancers. If pelabresib hits, it could generate peak sales above $1 billion annually according to analysts. And with MorphoSys trading at multi-year lows, Novartis appears to have struck at an opportune time.

However, the mixed clinical data keeps pelabresib’s commercial prospects uncertain. And with most of MorphoSys’ value residing in the newly divested Monjuvi, it remains to be seen if Novartis overpaid. Investors reacted with caution on Tuesday, with Novartis shares falling 1% on news of the acquisition.

But with MorphoSys providing additional expertise in hematology R&D and a foothold in the German biotech scene, Novartis can justify the deal as a strategic move to reinforce oncology leadership. The pharma giant has the resources to continue its shopping spree, with around $9 billion in annual free cash flow.

If Novartis can successfully integrate MorphoSys’ personnel and drug candidates into its pipeline, while achieving cost synergies, the acquisition could pay dividends over time as new oncology drugs emerge. But executing large M&A successfully is always challenging, and investors will watch closely how Novartis leverages its new MorphoSys assets.

Mark your calendars! Don’t miss Noble Capital Markets’ Emerging Growth Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference on April 17-18. This exclusive virtual event connects investors with 50 leading public biotech, healthcare services, and medical device companies. Presenting company slots are available…Read More

UBS Resumes Buybacks, Seeks More Savings from Credit Suisse Takeover

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Swiss banking giant UBS announced several major strategic updates on Tuesday, including resuming share buybacks and increasing cost-cutting targets related to its takeover of Credit Suisse last year. The bank’s shares fell nearly 4% as investors reacted to financial results and the roadmap ahead.

UBS said it plans up to $1 billion in share repurchases in 2024, restarting its buyback program which was halted during the acquisition of Credit Suisse in March 2023. The deal, valued at nearly $16 billion, was the first ever merger between two global systemically important banks. It significantly expanded UBS’s wealth management operations and investment banking capabilities.

Integrating Credit Suisse is expected to generate major cost synergies over the next several years. UBS now estimates total savings of $13 billion by the end of 2026, up from the previous target of over $10 billion. Around half of the savings will come from headcount reductions, according to CFO Todd Tuckner.

While UBS said the initial phase of integration is complete, CEO Sergio Ermotti warned there is still significant restructuring ahead. The next few years will involve job cuts, combining IT systems, and optimizing operations. Ermotti cautioned that progress “will not be measured in a straight line” and the trickier parts of integration have yet to occur.

The bank reaffirmed its key financial targets, including for return on capital and cost-income ratios. It also set new ambitions, such as growing assets under management in its wealth management division to $5 trillion by 2028, up from $3.85 trillion currently.

For 2024, UBS proposed boosting its dividend by 27% compared to 2023. This comes as many European banks have been rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks.

UBS posted a small net loss of $279 million in the fourth quarter of 2023. The loss was attributed to Credit Suisse integration costs. However, the bank sees profitability improving in early 2024 amid better market activity and progress on merging operations.

UBS Swiss Deal
Image Credit: Reuters Graphics

The wealth management unit reported $22 billion in net new money growth during the quarter. However, a change in metrics makes the figure not directly comparable to previous periods. The investment bank posted a pre-tax loss of $169 million but is expected to return to profitability soon.

Shares fell due to concerns around UBS’s near-term profitability as integration costs weigh on performance. While cost savings are substantial over the long run, analysts pointed out revenue will likely drop in the next couple years before synergies are fully realized.

There are also lingering concerns around integrating such large banking operations smoothly. Regulators are keeping a close eye given the combined balance sheet is nearly twice the size of Switzerland’s GDP. However, UBS maintains only around one-third of assets are illiquid.

Overall, UBS remains confident in achieving strategic goals from its takeover of Credit Suisse, even if the next few years involve headaches from combining staff, technology, and business lines. Execution risks remain but cost cuts could significantly boost profitability down the line. Tuesday’s announcements provided investors more clarity around buybacks, dividends, and the path forward.

Palantir Shares Rocket on Strong Q4 Earnings Driven by AI Demand

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Shares of data analytics company Palantir Technologies soared over 25% on Tuesday after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations, driven by strong demand for its artificial intelligence capabilities.

Palantir said revenue in the fourth quarter increased 20% year-over-year to $608.4 million, surpassing Wall Street estimates of $602.4 million. The revenue growth was led by the company’s commercial business, especially in the U.S., where Palantir has been rapidly building out its AI platform known as AIP.

In a letter to shareholders, Palantir CEO Alex Karp provided color on the ongoing demand for AI capabilities, stating that appetite for large language models in the U.S. “continues to be unrelenting.” Karp noted that Palantir conducted nearly 600 pilots of its AIP platform with customers last year.

The AI platform allows Palantir customers to build their own AI models specific to their business using the company’s robust data management and analytics capabilities. This enables tailored AI applications across a variety of industries and use cases, from risk modeling in financial services to supply chain optimization and more.

Analyst Commentary on AI Momentum

Multiple analysts upgraded Palantir stock and raised price targets following the strong quarterly showing, which provided tangible evidence of the company’s AI platform gaining traction with customers.

Citi analysts upgraded Palarntir to a Neutral rating from Sell, saying the results demonstrated “breakthrough momentum” for the commercial business driven by AI adoption. They see the momentum in AIP balancing out risks related to guidance for the non-U.S. commercial business.

Meanwhile, Jefferies analysts admitted they were previously wrong to downplay the impact AI could have for Palantir. They now believe the company is at an “inflection point” as the AIP platform ramps faster than their initial expectations.

Bank of America also noted that while still early, AIP is already having a meaningful impact on Palantir’s growth. They expect the AI momentum to continue and see significant opportunities in the U.S. government sector as well.

Concerns Around Valuation Remain

Despite the more constructive view on AI traction, some analysts still harbor concerns around Palantir’s valuation. Jefferies pointed out the stock trades at a 23% premium to large cap peers, leading them to remain sidelined for now despite the growth signals.

Citi also raised its target to $20, which offers upside from current levels but is likely still conservative relative to more bullish Street views. The premium multiple encapsulates the potential rewards and risks at this stage of Palantir’s expansion within AI.

Path Forward for AI Business

The fourth quarter results provided promising evidence that Palantir’s investments in AI and its unified data platform are allowing it to capitalize on the surging demand. But the company will likely need to maintain the commercial momentum and continue gaining AI adoption to justify a higher valuation.

If Palantir can consistently grow revenue, especially within the U.S. commercial landscape, while expanding AIP pilots into long-term customers, it could support a durable growth trajectory. Government work also offers a steady revenue stream to complement the more volatile commercial business over time.

Overall, Palantir’s latest quarter showcased its potential as an AI leader. But realizing the full upside will depend on smart and consistent execution across geographies and industries. The positive analyst reactions and stock move indicate investors are gaining confidence in Palantir’s ability to capture the AI opportunity.