Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

GeoVax Labs (GOVX) – Looking Forward To Continued Progress In 2H24

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, July 10, 2024

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

GeoVax Reached Important Milestones For Both Platforms During 1H2024. The first half of 2024 has been a transformational period for GeoVax. A Phase 2 trial testing CM04S1 as a booster vaccine for COVID-19 reported initial data in February, then received a BARDA grant to conduct a large Phase 2b in June. The Gedeptin gene therapy program in head and neck cancer reported interim Phase 1/2 data showing successful proof-of-concept. Both programs are moving forward with additional milestones in 2H24.

BARDA Grant Allocates $367 Million For A Phase 2b Trial. In June, GeoVax announced that it has received a grant from BARDA to conduct a Phase 2b trial testing CM04S1 as a booster vaccine to protect healthy patients from COVID-19. As discussed in our Research Note on June 28, the grant terms include payments to GeoVax for clinical supplies and regulatory costs of $24.3 million (which could be increased to $45 million). The balance will be payable to Allucent, the CRO that will conduct the trial.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Euroseas (ESEA) – Increasing Estimates Based on Higher Charter Rates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, July 10, 2024

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

M/V Joanna charter. Euroseas Ltd. executed a new time charter contract for its 1,732 twenty-foot equivalent (teu) feeder containership, M/V Joanna, for a minimum period of 23 months to a maximum period of 25 months at an average gross daily rate of $16,500. The rate is higher than its current charter rate of $13,500 per day which ends in August. The charter for M/V Joanna will commence at the end of October 2024. The charter is expected to contribute EBITDA of ~$6.4 million during the minimum contracted period and increases the company’s remaining 2024 and 2025 charter coverage to 92% and 40%, respectively.

M/V Pepi Star charter. The company executed a time charter contract for the M/V Pepi Star, an 1,800 teu feeder containership currently under construction, for a minimum period of 23 to a maximum period of 25 months at a gross daily rate of $24,250. The time charter contract rate is higher than what we had previously forecast. The new charter will commence in mid-July upon delivery of the vessel from the shipyard. The charter is expected to contribute EBITDA in the amount of ~$12.3 million during the minimum contracted period.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – Updated Model

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, July 10, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Model Updates. We updated our model to reflect the upcoming loss of the South Texas contract in mid-August. While a significant loss, we believe the ongoing increase in ICE detainees elsewhere could help soften the South Texas blow and we remain hopeful additional state and local contracts could be signed.

Details. As a reminder, South Texas generates approximately $40 million in quarterly revenue and generates approximately $0.10 per share in quarterly EPS. We assumed half of a quarter impact for 3Q24 and a full quarter impact in 4Q24. We kept the majority of the rest of the model consistent, although there may be some cost savings initiatives CoreCivic is able to put in place. We held our 2Q24 estimates the same.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Tesla’s Energy Business: The Next Big Growth Driver?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

As Tesla continues to dominate headlines with its electric vehicles and ambitious plans for autonomous driving, a less-discussed segment of the company is quietly becoming a potential game-changer. Tesla’s energy business, particularly its energy storage division, is showing signs of becoming a major contributor to the company’s bottom line and future growth prospects.

In a recent production and delivery report, Tesla revealed that it had deployed a record-breaking 9.4 GWh (gigawatt hours) of battery energy storage in the second quarter of 2024. This figure represents more than double the amount deployed in the first quarter, signaling explosive growth in this sector.

Tesla’s energy storage solutions range from residential Powerwall units to utility-scale Megapack installations. A single Powerwall can store enough energy to power a small home for a day, while a Megapack installation boasts the capacity to provide electricity to 3,600 homes for an hour. This scalability allows Tesla to cater to a wide range of customers, from individual homeowners to large utility companies and municipalities.

The financial performance of Tesla’s energy business is equally impressive. In the first quarter of 2024, the segment generated $1.6 billion in revenue and $403 million in gross profit. What’s particularly noteworthy is the gross margin of 24.6%, significantly higher than Tesla’s overall gross margin of 17.4% for the same period. This robust profitability comes at a crucial time for Tesla, as its automotive business faces margin pressure due to recent price cuts aimed at stimulating demand.

Wall Street is taking notice of this shift. Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, dubbed the Q2 energy deployment figures a “show stealer” and valued Tesla Energy at $36 per Tesla share, or approximately $130 billion. This valuation suggests that the energy business could be a substantial component of Tesla’s market capitalization in the future.

The growth potential for Tesla’s energy storage business is closely tied to broader technological and infrastructure trends. The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence and the subsequent need for more data centers are expected to drive a “multigenerational increase in energy demand,” according to Jonas. This surge in electricity needs, coupled with the ongoing transition to renewable energy sources, positions Tesla’s energy storage solutions as a critical component of future power grids.

Moreover, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States is likely to accelerate investments in grid infrastructure, potentially creating more opportunities for Tesla’s energy products. As utilities and businesses look to modernize and stabilize the power grid, Tesla’s Megapack installations could play a crucial role in load balancing and ensuring reliable power supply.

While much of the investor focus has been on Tesla’s automotive innovations, including the anticipated launch of a lower-priced electric vehicle and the reveal of its robotaxi concept, the energy business could provide a significant upside surprise in upcoming earnings reports. This diversification of revenue streams may also help to stabilize Tesla’s financial performance, reducing its reliance on the cyclical automotive market.

It’s worth noting that Tesla’s energy business isn’t limited to storage solutions. The company also produces solar roof tiles and conventional solar panels, although these products have received less attention in recent years. As the energy storage business continues to grow, it may create synergies with Tesla’s solar products, offering customers comprehensive energy solutions.

As we approach Tesla’s Q2 earnings report in July 2024, investors and analysts will be keenly watching the performance of the energy storage segment. If the strong deployment figures translate into substantial revenue and profit growth, it could mark a turning point in how the market perceives Tesla – not just as an automaker, but as a diversified energy and technology company.

In conclusion, Tesla’s energy storage business is emerging as a powerful growth driver for the company. With its impressive profit margins, scalable solutions, and alignment with global energy trends, this segment could play a crucial role in Tesla’s future success and valuation. As the world continues its transition to sustainable energy, Tesla appears well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced energy storage solutions.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list for more emerging growth energy companies.

Pershing Square USA Launches Highly Anticipated IPO Roadshow

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a move that has captured the attention of Wall Street and investors alike, Pershing Square USA, Ltd. (PSUS) has announced the launch of its initial public offering (IPO) roadshow. This development marks a significant milestone for the closed-end investment management company, which is set to make its debut on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “PSUS”.

The IPO, expected to be priced at $50.00 per share, is generating considerable buzz in financial circles. PSUS, which will be advised by the renowned Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P. following the IPO, is poised to offer investors a unique opportunity to tap into the expertise of one of Wall Street’s most prominent investment firms.

Pershing Square Capital Management, led by billionaire investor Bill Ackman, has a track record of high-profile investments and activist campaigns. The launch of PSUS as a publicly traded entity represents a new chapter for the firm, potentially offering retail investors access to strategies previously available only to institutional and high-net-worth individuals.

The IPO is backed by an impressive lineup of underwriters, including global financial powerhouses such as Citigroup, UBS Investment Bank, BofA Securities, and Jefferies acting as global coordinators and bookrunners. This strong support from major financial institutions underscores the significance of the offering and the confidence in PSUS’s potential.

Additionally, the inclusion of a diverse group of co-managers, including several minority-owned firms, reflects a commitment to broadening participation in significant Wall Street transactions. This approach aligns with growing industry efforts to promote diversity and inclusion in financial markets.

While the exact size of the offering has not been disclosed, the involvement of numerous heavyweight financial institutions suggests that it could be substantial. The proceeds from the IPO will be used to fund PSUS’s investment activities, in line with its stated objective and policies.

Investors and market watchers will be keenly observing how PSUS performs post-IPO, particularly given the current economic climate characterized by high inflation and rising interest rates. The success of this offering could signal continued appetite for innovative investment vehicles, even in challenging market conditions.

It’s important to note that the IPO is subject to market conditions and regulatory approval. The SEC is currently reviewing the registration statement, and the offering will only proceed once this process is complete. Potential investors are advised to carefully review the prospectus, which contains detailed information about the company’s strategy, risks, and financial position.

The launch of PSUS on the public markets could have broader implications for the investment management industry. If successful, it may inspire other prominent hedge funds and investment firms to consider similar structures, potentially democratizing access to sophisticated investment strategies.

However, investors should approach with caution. While the Pershing Square name carries significant weight in investment circles, past performance does not guarantee future results. The closed-end structure of PSUS also means that its shares could trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, adding another layer of complexity for investors to consider.

As the roadshow begins, all eyes will be on PSUS and the reception it receives from institutional investors. The success of this IPO could set the tone for similar offerings in the future and potentially reshape how retail investors access alternative investment strategies.

The Pershing Square USA IPO represents a significant event in the financial world, offering both opportunities and challenges for investors. As always, potential participants are encouraged to conduct thorough due diligence and consider their individual financial situations before making any investment decisions.

Fed Chair Powell Signals Potential Rate Cuts as Inflation Eases

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a significant shift of tone, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in the near future, contingent on continued positive economic data. Speaking before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Powell’s remarks reflect growing confidence within the central bank that inflation is moving towards its 2% target, potentially paving the way for a more accommodative monetary policy.

Powell’s testimony comes at a crucial juncture for the U.S. economy. After a period of aggressive rate hikes aimed at combating soaring inflation, the Fed now finds itself in a delicate balancing act. On one hand, it must ensure that inflation continues its downward trajectory. On the other, it must be wary of keeping rates too high for too long, which could risk stifling economic growth and employment.

“After a lack of progress toward our 2% inflation objective in the early part of this year, the most recent monthly readings have shown modest further progress,” Powell stated. He added that “more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” This cautious optimism marks a notable shift from the Fed’s previous stance and suggests that the central bank is increasingly open to the idea of rate cuts.

The timing of Powell’s comments is particularly significant, coming just days before the release of crucial economic data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is set to be published on Thursday, providing the latest snapshot of inflationary pressures in the economy. Many analysts anticipate another weak reading, following May’s flat CPI, which could further bolster the case for monetary easing.

Powell’s testimony also addressed the state of the labor market. The most recent jobs report showed the addition of 206,000 jobs in June, indicating a still-robust employment situation. However, the rising unemployment rate, now at 4.1%, suggests a gradual cooling of the job market. Powell characterized this as a “still low level” but noted the importance of striking a balance between inflation control and maintaining economic vitality.

“In light of the progress made both in lowering inflation and in cooling the labor market over the past two years, elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” Powell cautioned. He emphasized that keeping policy too tight for an extended period “could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

These remarks have significant implications for market expectations. Investors are now pricing in a roughly 70% probability of a rate cut by September, a substantial increase from previous projections. At the Fed’s June meeting, the median projection among officials was for just a single quarter-point rate cut by the end of the year. However, recent weaker-than-expected inflation data has shifted these expectations.

Powell’s comments also touch on broader economic conditions. He described the current period of economic growth as remaining “solid” with “robust” private demand and improved overall supply conditions. Additionally, he noted a “pickup in residential investment,” suggesting potential easing in the housing market, which has been a significant contributor to inflationary pressures.

The Fed Chair’s testimony comes against the backdrop of an approaching presidential election in November, adding a political dimension to the central bank’s decisions. The timing and extent of any rate cuts are likely to become talking points in the election campaign, highlighting the delicate position the Fed occupies at the intersection of economics and politics.

As the Fed navigates this complex economic landscape, Powell’s words signal a cautious but increasingly optimistic outlook. The central bank appears ready to pivot towards a more accommodative stance, provided incoming data continues to support such a move. With crucial inflation figures due later this week and the next Fed meeting scheduled for July 30-31, all eyes will be on economic indicators and subsequent Fed communications for further clues about the future direction of monetary policy.

The coming months promise to be a critical period for the U.S. economy, as the Federal Reserve seeks to engineer a soft landing – bringing inflation under control without triggering a recession. Powell’s latest comments suggest that this challenging goal may be within reach, but the path forward remains fraught with potential pitfalls and uncertainties.

Schwazze (SHWZ) – A Move to the OTC Expert Market

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, July 09, 2024

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Move. We had an opportunity to speak with management regarding the announcement that the OTC Market Group will move trading of SHWZ shares to the OTC Expert Market from OTC QX as a result of the Company’s delinquent 10-Q filing for the period ending March 31, 2024. We believe the move to be temporary and does not have an impact on the long-term investment potential of SHWZ shares.

Why? As we noted previously, Schwazze has been caught up in the BF Borgers case. Schwazze replaced Borgers as the Company’s accountant in April, before the SEC case against Borgers was announced. The Company’s new accountant Baker Tilly is re-auditing Schwazze’s 2023 financial statements, but the review will take longer than the OTC Market Group’s 45 day late filing grace period. We are hopeful the review will be completed in the August/September time frame.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

PDS Biotechnology (PDSB) – Midyear Review: Has PDS Turned The Corner?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, July 09, 2024

PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Amended Phase 3 Clinical Trial Will Test Two Drugs. During 2Q24, the design of the Phase 3 trial testing Versamune HPV with Keytruda added a second treatment arm to test Versamune, PDS01ADC, and Keytruda against the active control arm of Keytruda alone. We believe this new trial design answers several questions that have caused PDSB to stagnate over the past year. A meeting with the FDA to ensure alignment on the trial design is expected during July 2024.

Thoughtful Consideration Has Led To Improved Trial Design. There are several points from the Phase 2 trial data that lead us to believe that adding the third arm to Phase 3 study improves its design. We believe the Triple-combination could have more rapid enrollment, produce data for product approvals, and support extensive use as a first-line therapy.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – June Numbers Released; Raising Price Target

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, July 09, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

BTC Mining. Bit Digital produced 61.7 BTC during June, a 2.5% decrease from 63.3 in the previous month. The active hash rate was 2.57 EH/s versus 2.54 EH/s the prior month. We expect to see an increase in active hash rate in the second half of the year as the Company becomes more opportunistic in deploying efficient miners.

AI/ETH. The Company had 256 servers actively running, similar to last month, and earned an estimated $4.1 million of unaudited revenue from its anchor contract during the month. Approximately 17,184 ETH was actively staked as of June 30, 2024, flat with last month. Bit Digital earned 3.5% blended APY on its staked ETH, up from 3.1% last month.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Lilly Expands Immunology Footprint with $3.2 Billion Morphic Acquisition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) announced on July 8, 2024, its plans to acquire Morphic Holding, Inc. (NASDAQ: MORF) for $3.2 billion, marking a significant expansion of its presence in the immunology space. This strategic move aims to enhance Lilly’s pipeline in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treatments and broaden its portfolio of oral integrin therapies.

Under the agreement, Lilly will pay $57 per share in cash for all outstanding Morphic shares, representing a substantial 79% premium over Morphic’s closing stock price on July 5, 2024. The transaction, approved by both companies’ boards of directors, is expected to close in the third quarter of 2024, pending customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals.

At the heart of this acquisition is Morphic’s lead program, MORF-057, a selective oral small molecule inhibitor of α4β7 integrin. This promising compound is currently undergoing multiple Phase 2 studies for the treatment of ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, two prevalent forms of IBD. The oral nature of MORF-057 could offer significant advantages over existing injectable therapies, potentially improving patient compliance and quality of life.

Dr. Daniel Skovronsky, Chief Scientific Officer of Lilly and President of Lilly Research Laboratories, highlighted the potential impact of oral therapies in IBD treatment. “Oral therapies could open up new possibilities for earlier intervention in diseases like ulcerative colitis, and also provide the potential for combination therapy to help patients with more severe disease,” he stated. This acquisition underscores Lilly’s commitment to developing first-in-class molecules in gastroenterology, an area where the company has been making substantial investments.

The deal also brings Morphic’s preclinical pipeline into Lilly’s fold, including molecules targeting autoimmune diseases, pulmonary hypertensive diseases, fibrotic diseases, and cancer. This addition further diversifies Lilly’s research and development efforts, potentially opening new avenues for therapeutic breakthroughs.

For Morphic, this deal represents a validation of its Integrin Technology platform and years of research. Dr. Praveen Tipirneni, CEO of Morphic Therapeutic, expressed confidence in Lilly’s ability to maximize MORF-057’s potential. “Lilly brings unparalleled resources and commitment to the inflammation and immunology field,” he noted, adding that the acquisition could “unlock new possibilities in IBD treatment.”

The transaction comes amid rapid growth in the global IBD therapeutics market. With the increasing prevalence of IBD worldwide and the limitations of current treatments, there is a significant unmet need for novel, more effective therapies. Lilly’s acquisition of Morphic positions the company to potentially capture a larger share of this expanding market and address critical patient needs.

From a financial perspective, the $3.2 billion deal represents a significant investment for Lilly. The company will determine the accounting treatment of the transaction as either a business combination or an asset acquisition upon closing, which will impact how it’s reflected in Lilly’s financial results and guidance.

The acquisition has ignited interest across the pharmaceutical industry, with analysts speculating that it could trigger a wave of similar deals in the integrin therapy space. As large pharmaceutical companies seek to bolster their pipelines and secure promising assets in high-growth therapeutic areas, smaller biotechnology firms with innovative platforms may become increasingly attractive targets.

However, Lilly faces the challenge of successfully integrating Morphic’s team and technologies into its existing operations. The company’s ability to manage this integration smoothly will be crucial in realizing the full potential of this deal and translating it into tangible benefits for patients and shareholders alike.

Lilly’s acquisition of Morphic represents a strategic move to strengthen its position in the immunology market, particularly in IBD treatments. With the potential to bring novel oral therapies to patients and expand its research capabilities, this deal could have far-reaching implications for both Lilly and the broader landscape of IBD treatment. As the transaction progresses towards closing, industry observers and patients alike will be watching closely to see how Lilly leverages this significant investment to drive innovation and improve patient outcomes in the years to come.

Ligand Pharmaceuticals Expands Oncology Portfolio with $100 Million APEIRON Biologics Acquisition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a strategic move to bolster its commercial-stage portfolio, Ligand Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (Nasdaq: LGND) announced on July 8, 2024, its agreement to acquire APEIRON Biologics AG for $100 million in cash. This acquisition marks a significant expansion of Ligand’s oncology footprint, particularly in the realm of rare pediatric cancers.

The crown jewel of this acquisition is QARZIBA® (dinutuximab beta), a highly differentiated oncology drug used in the treatment of high-risk neuroblastoma in patients aged 12 months and above. QARZIBA, which received European Medicines Agency approval in 2017, is currently marketed in over 35 countries by global pharmaceutical company Recordati S.p.A.

Todd Davis, CEO of Ligand, emphasized the strategic importance of this acquisition, stating, “The addition of QARZIBA to our commercial royalty portfolio further supports our growth strategy to invest in high-value medicines that deliver significant clinical value and generate predictable and long-term revenue streams for our investors.”

The deal structure includes the initial $100 million cash payment, with the potential for up to an additional $28 million based on future commercial and regulatory milestones. Specifically, these additional payments are tied to QARZIBA royalties exceeding certain predetermined thresholds by either 2030 or 2034.

From a financial perspective, this acquisition is expected to make an immediate positive impact on Ligand’s bottom line. The company projects that the deal will be accretive to its earnings per share (EPS) by approximately $1.00 on an annualized basis, with a $0.50 impact expected for 2024 alone. In light of this, Ligand has increased its 2024 adjusted EPS guidance by 17% to a range of $5.00-$5.50.

The acquisition of APEIRON represents the sixth key asset added to Ligand’s commercial stage portfolio since the beginning of 2023, underscoring the company’s aggressive growth strategy. This diversification is expected to provide Ligand with a more stable and predictable revenue stream, a key consideration for investors in the volatile biotech sector.

QARZIBA’s unique position as the only immunotherapy for high-risk neuroblastoma marketed across Europe and other parts of the world makes it a particularly valuable addition to Ligand’s portfolio. Neuroblastoma, a rare cancer that primarily affects children, has limited treatment options, highlighting the potential impact of QARZIBA on patient outcomes.

In a parallel move, Ligand has also committed to investing up to $4 million in invIOs Holding AG, a privately held spin-off of APEIRON. This investment is aimed at financing the research and development of three innovative early-stage immuno-oncology assets, further expanding Ligand’s development stage portfolio.

Peter Llewellyn-Davies, CEO of APEIRON, expressed satisfaction with the deal, noting, “This transaction is an important milestone for our company and shareholders. We have spent more than 20 years translating academic research into therapeutic products for diseases with high unmet needs.”

The acquisition is expected to close in July 2024, subject to a 30-day shareholder objection period and other customary closing conditions. Upon completion, it will significantly reshape Ligand’s commercial portfolio and financial outlook.

As the biopharmaceutical industry continues to consolidate and seek ways to mitigate risk while maximizing potential returns, Ligand’s acquisition of APEIRON represents a strategic move to strengthen its position in the oncology market. By focusing on high-value, commercially available assets like QARZIBA, Ligand is positioning itself for sustained growth in the competitive and rapidly evolving pharmaceutical landscape.

Take a moment to take a look at emerging biotech companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

Nano Dimension to Acquire Desktop Metal: A Game-Changer in Additive Manufacturing

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The additive manufacturing landscape is set for a seismic shift as Nano Dimension Ltd. (Nasdaq: NNDM) announces its plans to acquire Desktop Metal, Inc. (NYSE: DM) in an all-cash transaction. This merger, expected to close in Q4 2024, promises to create a powerhouse in the 3D printing industry, offering investors a unique opportunity to capitalize on the burgeoning trend of digital manufacturing.

Under the terms of the agreement, Nano Dimension will purchase all outstanding shares of Desktop Metal for $5.50 per share, valuing the company at approximately $183 million. This represents a 27.3% premium to Desktop Metal’s closing price on July 2, 2024. However, investors should be aware that the final price could potentially decrease to $4.07 per share, reducing the total consideration to $135 million, depending on transaction expenses and other factors outlined in the agreement.

The strategic rationale behind this merger is compelling. By combining two complementary product portfolios, the new entity aims to create a comprehensive offering across metal, electronics, casting, polymer, micro-polymer, and ceramics applications. This broader product range is expected to accelerate the industry’s transition from prototyping to mass production, a key growth driver in the additive manufacturing sector.

The merger will also deepen the companies’ penetration in key end markets such as automotive, aerospace/defense, industrial, and medical. The combined entity will serve an impressive roster of blue-chip customers, including Amazon, Tesla, NASA, and the US Army, positioning it at the forefront of industry innovation and adoption.

From a financial perspective, the merged company is projected to have 2023 combined revenue of $246 million, with a notable 28% generated from recurring revenue streams. This recurring revenue component is particularly attractive to investors, as it provides more stable and predictable cash flows. Moreover, the deal is expected to generate over $30 million in run-rate synergies over the next few years, in addition to previously announced cost savings from each organization.

Post-merger, the combined entity is expected to boast a strong cash position of approximately $665 million (or $680 million at the reduced price scenario), providing ample resources for future growth initiatives and R&D investments. This financial strength, coupled with an installed base of over 8,000 systems, positions the new company to capitalize on significant opportunities in services and consumables, further enhancing its recurring revenue potential.

The merger positions the new company as a leader in the rapidly evolving additive manufacturing industry, particularly in the transition from prototyping to high-volume production. Investors should take note of the company’s focus on high-tech, premium margin solutions, which could lead to improved profitability in the long term. The diverse product portfolio and expanded customer base also provide some insulation against industry-specific risks.

However, potential investors should be aware of the challenges that come with such a significant merger. Integration risks, including the consolidation of operations across multiple geographies, could impact short-term performance. Additionally, the transaction is subject to approval by Desktop Metal’s stockholders and regulatory authorities, which introduces some uncertainty. The additive manufacturing industry is also highly competitive and rapidly evolving, which may require continuous innovation and investment to maintain market position.

For investors interested in the additive manufacturing sector and M&A activity, this deal offers an attractive entry point into a potentially transformative merger. The combined company’s strong financial position, diverse product offering, and focus on high-growth areas of digital manufacturing make it a compelling investment proposition. However, as with any merger, investors should closely monitor the integration process and the company’s ability to realize projected synergies. The potential for price adjustments also warrants attention, as it could impact the overall value of the deal.

In conclusion, the Nano Dimension-Desktop Metal merger represents a significant consolidation in the additive manufacturing industry, creating a well-capitalized leader with a comprehensive product portfolio. For investors willing to navigate the inherent risks of M&A transactions, this deal could offer substantial long-term value as the additive manufacturing industry continues its growth trajectory, potentially reshaping the future of manufacturing across multiple sectors.

Fed’s Powell Signals Extended High-Rate Environment

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent comments at a central banking forum in Sintra, Portugal, have given investors fresh insights into the Fed’s thinking on interest rates and inflation. While acknowledging progress in the battle against inflation, Powell’s cautious tone suggests that investors should prepare for a more measured approach to monetary policy easing than many had initially anticipated.

Powell’s remarks highlight the delicate balance the Fed is trying to strike. On one hand, inflation has shown signs of cooling, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – declining to a 2.6% annual rate in May. This represents significant progress from the 4% rate seen a year ago. However, it’s still above the Fed’s 2% target, which Powell doesn’t expect to reach until 2026.

For investors, this timeline is crucial. It suggests that while the Fed sees positive trends, it’s not ready to declare victory over inflation just yet. This cautious stance is reflected in Powell’s statement that the Fed wants to be “more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”

This careful approach has implications for various asset classes. Bond investors, who had initially priced in up to six quarter-point rate cuts for 2024, may need to recalibrate their expectations. Current market pricing now anticipates only two cuts, one in September and another before year-end. However, even this may be optimistic given that Fed officials have indicated just one cut in their latest projections.

Equity investors should also take note. The Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% target, even if it means maintaining higher rates for longer, could impact corporate earnings and valuations. Sectors that are particularly sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and utilities, may face continued pressure if rates remain elevated.

Powell’s comments also touched on the risks of moving too quickly versus too slowly in adjusting monetary policy. He noted that cutting rates too soon could undo the progress made on inflation, while moving too late could unnecessarily undermine economic recovery. This balanced view suggests that the Fed is likely to err on the side of caution, potentially keeping rates higher for longer than some investors might prefer.

For global investors, it’s worth noting that Powell’s stance aligns with other major central banks. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who was also present at the forum, has similarly emphasized the need for continued vigilance on inflation.

The Fed’s approach also has implications for currency markets. A more hawkish Fed stance relative to other central banks could support the U.S. dollar, potentially impacting multinational corporations and emerging market investments.

Looking ahead, investors should pay close attention to upcoming economic data, particularly inflation readings and labor market indicators. These will likely play a crucial role in shaping the Fed’s decisions in the coming months.

It’s also worth noting that Powell downplayed concerns about potential political influence on Fed policy, stating that the central bank remains focused on its mandate regardless of the political climate.

In conclusion, while the Fed sees progress on inflation, investors should prepare for a potentially slower path to monetary policy easing than initially expected. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio and staying attuned to economic indicators that could influence the Fed’s decision-making. As always, adaptability will be key in navigating the evolving economic landscape.