slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com, Author at Channelchek

Snail (SNAL) – Underlying Trends Appear Favorable

Posted on April 2, 2024April 2, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noisy Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $28.6 million and missed our estimate of $31.6 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was $3.6 million, substantially below our estimate of $12.4 million. Figure #1 Q4 Results illustrates the company’s recent performance. Notably, the results were driven by higher than expected deferred revenue, related to DLC packages included in the sale of ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA).

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across the five DLCS that are included in the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

AdTheorent (ADTH) – Is A Sweetened Offer Possible?

Posted on April 2, 2024April 2, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, April 02, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Definitive merger agreement. On April 1, 2024, the company announced it has entered into a definitive merger agreement to be acquired by privately held Cadent, LLC, a subsidiary of Novacap, for $324 million. The merger is an all cash transaction at $3.21 per share. Notably, the ADTH shares have increased roughly 160% over the past six months and currently trade slightly above the offering price.

Terms of the agreement. The merger agreement includes a 33-day go-shop period, which allows the company to solicit alternative acquisition proposals until its expiration at 11:59 pm ET on May 4. The agreement includes a termination fee of approximately $11.4 million. Importantly, accepting a superior deal during the go-shop window would lower the termination fee to roughly $6.5 million. Pending shareholder approval, the transaction is expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2024.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Job Market Stays Resilient as Openings Hold Steady

Posted on April 2, 2024April 2, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest employment data shows the resilience of the US labor market, even as the Federal Reserve remains locked in an inflation battle. The number of job openings across the country was essentially unchanged in February at 8.76 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Labor Department.

While just a slight 0.1% uptick from January’s revised 8.75 million openings, the figure highlights how robust hiring demand remains from employers over a year into the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign. Job vacancies have been sticky at extremely elevated levels, leaving Fed officials frustrated in their efforts to ease wage growth and inflationary pressures.

“The labor market continues to defy expectations of a meaningful cooling,” said Samantha Gunther, economist at Credence Economics. “With openings still so high, wage growth is likely to remain too strong for the Fed’s liking in the months ahead.”

The JOLTS data precedes this week’s highly anticipated March jobs report, which is forecast to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 230,000 positions. That would mark a fourth straight month of job gains over 200,000, underscoring the employment market’s enduring tightness.

There were some modest signs of a gradual loosening in labor conditions buried within February’s openings figures. Job vacancies fell in sectors like information, healthcare and retail trade. More notably, the overall level of layoffs jumped to 1.8 million, the highest since last April, led by a spike in the leisure and hospitality industry.

“While the bar remains high for calling a turn in the labor cycle, we’re seeing some initial hints of cracks starting to form,” said Ryan Bingham, lead labor economist at ADP. “Higher borrowing costs are clearly starting to bite for certain service-sector businesses.”

The report also showed rates of workers quitting their jobs to pursue other opportunities held steady at 2.2% in February, the lowest since the summer of 2020. The diminished quits rate could indicate employees are feeling less confident about switching roles in a more uncertain economic climate.

Another indicator pointing to some easing was the ratio of available workers to job openings, which slipped to 1.36 from 1.43 in January. While still a very tight ratio favoring employers over job seekers, it marked progress toward better balance after peaking above 2-to-1 last year.

For the Fed, the upshot is likely more patience in leaving interest rates elevated. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated last week that stronger labor market “gives” would be needed to bring down unacceptably high inflation back toward the 2% goal.

With payroll growth expected to remain solid and job openings still extremely elevated, it will take more time before productivity-enhancing labor slack emerges. The latest JOLTS figures suggest that process is underway, however gradual it may prove to be.

Amazon Doubles Down on AI Revolution with $4 Billion Anthropic Investment

Posted on April 1, 2024April 1, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is in full swing, and tech giants are racing to secure their footholds in this transformative space. Amazon’s recent $4 billion investment in Anthropic, a leading AI research company, is a bold move that underscores the e-commerce giant’s commitment to staying at the forefront of this technological shift.

The investment, which includes an initial $1.25 billion investment made last September and an additional $2.75 billion announced recently, is part of a broader strategic collaboration between the two companies. This collaboration aims to bring Anthropic’s advanced generative AI technologies, including the powerful Claude AI models, to Amazon’s cloud computing platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The AI revolution is disrupting industries across the board, from healthcare and finance to manufacturing and entertainment. Companies that can harness the power of AI stand to gain a significant competitive advantage, and Amazon recognizes the immense potential of this technology.

By partnering with Anthropic, Amazon is positioning itself as a leading provider of AI solutions for businesses of all sizes. The company’s cloud computing platform, AWS, will serve as the primary cloud provider for Anthropic’s mission-critical workloads, including safety research and future foundation model development.

Moreover, AWS customers will gain access to Anthropic’s advanced AI models, such as the Claude 3 family, which has demonstrated near-human levels of responsiveness, improved accuracy, and new vision capabilities. This partnership promises to unlock exciting opportunities for customers to innovate with generative AI quickly, securely, and responsibly.

The tech sector has been experiencing a remarkable rally driven by the AI boom, and Amazon’s investment in Anthropic is a testament to this trend. As AI continues to reshape industries and create new possibilities, companies that embrace this technology early on are likely to reap significant rewards.

Amazon’s strategic move not only positions the company as a leader in the AI space but also highlights the growing importance of AI in driving innovation and creating value across industries. As the AI revolution continues to unfold, we can expect to see more companies investing heavily in this game-changing technology, shaping the future of how we live, work, and interact with the world around us.

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – New York NDRS; Raising Price Target

Posted on April 1, 2024April 1, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, April 01, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

NYC NDRS. We hosted Orion CEO Travis Boone and CFO Scott Thanisch for a series of investor meetings in NYC last week. The key takeaway for us was management’s confidence in being able to capitalize on the significant upcycle in marine construction spending over the next several years.

Phase 2. Having completed Phase 1 of “righting the ship” in 2023, Orion is onto Phase 2 of its strategic plan: driving growth potential. Management highlighted numerous industry tailwinds across both business segments. Notably, the pipeline of opportunity has grown to over $11 billion from just $3 billion twelve months ago.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Schwazze (SHWZ) – Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Results

Posted on April 1, 2024April 1, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, April 01, 2024

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Challenging Year. 2023 was a challenging year in both the Colorado and New Mexico markets highlighted by increasing competition and a supply/demand imbalance. In spite of the conditions, Schwazze continued to outperform the markets, a testament to management’s operating playbook, in our view.

4Q23. Revenue totaled $43.2 million, up from $40.1 million in 4Q22, but down sequentially reflecting typical seasonality. We had forecast $44.8 million. Driven by some one time charges, Schwazze reported a net loss of $30.9 million in 4Q23, or a loss of $0.43 per share, compared to a loss of $29.8 million, or a loss of $0.57 per share, last year. We had estimated a net loss of $10.1 million, or a loss of $0.13 per share.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Alleviates A Stock Overhang

Posted on April 1, 2024April 1, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, April 01, 2024

Townsquare is a community-focused digital media and digital marketing solutions company with market leading local radio stations, principally focused outside the top 50 markets in the U.S. Our assets include a subscription digital marketing services business, Townsquare Interactive, providing website design, creation and hosting, search engine optimization, social media and online reputation management as well as other digital monthly services for approximately 26,800 SMBs; a robust digital advertising division, Townsquare IGNITE, a powerful combination of a) an owned and operated portfolio of more than 330 local news and entertainment websites and mobile apps along with a network of leading national music and entertainment brands, collecting valuable first party data, and b) a proprietary digital programmatic advertising technology stack with an in-house demand and data management platform; and a portfolio of 321 local terrestrial radio stations in 67 U.S. markets strategically situated outside the Top 50 markets in the United States. Our portfolio includes local media brands such as WYRK.com, WJON.com, and NJ101.5.com and premier national music brands such as XXLmag.com, TasteofCountry.com, UltimateClassicRock.com and Loudwire.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Repurchases shares. The company announced that it has repurchased and will retire 1.5 million of its shares from MSG National Properties for a $9.76 per share, or an attractive 11% discount from its closing price on March 29th. We believe that the repurchases alleviates a large overhang for the TSQ shares, with MSG now owning less than 200,000 shares post the repurchase. The move follows a 1.5 million share repurchase from MSG in June 2023 at $9.70 per share.

Financially capable. As of December 31, there was $61 million in cash and it generated significant cash flow of $68 million last year. Furthermore, its debt leverage has been coming down, currently 4.4 times adj. EBITDA from over 5 times just 2 years earlier. Given its improving fundamental outlook, the board recently increased its annual dividend to $0.79 per share, offering a current annualized dividend yield at an attractive 7.2%.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

AdTheorent Set to Go Private in $324 Million Cadent Acquisition

Posted on April 1, 2024April 1, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Investors in the adtech company AdTheorent Holding Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADTH) are set to receive a nice premium with the company’s announced acquisition by Cadent, LLC for $3.21 per share in cash.

The $324 million deal represents a 17% premium to AdTheorent’s 60-day volume-weighted average price and a 27% premium to its 90-day average as of March 28th. Upon completion of the transaction in the expected third quarter of 2024, AdTheorent will become a privately-held company under Cadent’s ownership.

Cadent is a leading provider of converged TV advertising solutions and is a portfolio company of the private equity firm Novacap. The combination allows Cadent to bolt-on AdTheorent’s machine learning advertising platform and technology.

For AdTheorent shareholders, the all-cash deal provides an attractive exit opportunity to cash out at a premium valuation. The company’s stock had traded between $2.15 and $3.35 over the past 52 weeks before the deal announcement sent shares surging over 40%.

AdTheorent’s board unanimously approved the transaction, stating that it “delivers immediate, certain and significant value” for shareholders. The company had gone public around two years ago, and CEO James Lawson noted that “the transaction validates the actions and investments we have made” positioning AdTheorent since then.

While the $3.21 per share price looks enticing for investors, AdTheorent did negotiate a 33-day “go-shop” period into the merger agreement. This allows the company’s advisors to actively solicit and consider superior proposals from other potential buyers through May 4th.

There is no guarantee that a better offer will emerge during the go-shop period. However, major AdTheorent shareholders controlling approximately 40% of the outstanding shares, including H.I.G. Growth Partners and company insiders, have already agreed to vote in favor of the Cadent transaction.

Unless a substantially higher bid comes in, the deal is expected to close in Q3 2024 after gaining AdTheorent shareholder approval and clearing regulatory hurdles including antitrust review.

For investors in AdTheorent, the timelines and deal certainty are important considerations. The deal with Cadent provides a unique opportunity to cash out at a premium valuation in the near-term. Alternatively, rejecting the deal leaves some possibility of a higher-priced acquisition down the road balanced against AdTheorent’s prospects and challenges operating independently.

The adtech sector has experienced significant volatility and compression in valuations over the past couple of years. In that context, AdTheorent’s ability to secure an all-cash transaction at a premium multiple could be viewed as a prudent move by the company’s board and leadership team.

As the “go-shop” period plays out over the next month, investors will be watching closely to see if any interloper emerges to potentially drive up the acquisition price for AdTheorent. But barring a topper bid, AdTheorent shareholders can likely bank on cashing in their stakes at a nice premium to recent trading prices before the company debuts as a Cadent subsidiary later this year.

Crypto’s Fallen Star: Sam Bankman-Fried Sentenced to 25 Years in Massive FTX Fraud Case

Posted on March 28, 2024March 28, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The meteoric rise and catastrophic fall of Sam Bankman-Fried reached its climax on Thursday as the former cryptocurrency wunderkind was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for orchestrating a massive fraud that stole billions from customers of his failed FTX exchange. The sentence handed down by U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan represents a stunning downfall for the 32-year-old who was once hailed as the new face of the crypto industry before becoming a pariah following FTX’s implosion last year.

Bankman-Fried, who founded and led FTX until its rapid collapse in November 2022, was convicted in October of defrauding investors and misappropriating billions in customer funds. Prosecutors alleged the former billionaire siphoned $14 billion in customer deposits from FTX to fund risky bets at his Alameda Research hedge fund, while lying to investors and customers about FTX’s financial condition.

“He betrayed the trust of his customers, investors, lenders, and prosecutors with extraordinary measures of greed and arrogance,” Kaplan said in delivering the 25-year sentence. The judge lambasted Bankman-Fried’s “exceptional flexibility with the truth” and “brazenness” in carrying out the fraud schemes.

While his defense attorneys argued for leniency and just 6.5 years behind bars, prosecutors pushed for decades in prison, saying Bankman-Fried’s crimes represented one of the most brazen frauds in American history. In the end, the 25-year term landed in the middle, though Kaplan made clear his disdain for Bankman-Fried’s actions and lack of remorse, calling his conduct “reprehensible.”

The sentencing bookends a shocking downward spiral for the former crypto prodigy whose name was once synonymous with the soaring growth and potential of digital currencies and assets. At the height of his success, Bankman-Fried was celebrated for building a multi-billion dollar crypto empire while embracing ethics and effective altruism. But it all unraveled in spectacular fashion when the house of cards collapsed at FTX.

The fallout from FTX’s bankruptcy shook faith in the crypto industry to its core. Retail investors lost life savings, major companies faced financial ruin, and cries for more regulation rang out globally. In the immediate aftermath, Bitcoin and other top cryptocurrencies saw massive sell-offs amid a “crypto winter” as investors fled the sector.

However, over a year later, the crypto market has mounted a stunning resurgence that may signal the turning of the page on one of its darkest chapters. Led by Bitcoin’s meteoric rise above $30,000 for the first time since the FTX collapse, the total crypto market cap has rebounded to levels not seen since mid-2022.

The bulls have been let loose again as more institutional investors embrace crypto, with BlackRock recently launching a spot Bitcoin private trust to provide direct ownership of the leading digital currency. Crypto trading volumes and activity on leading exchanges like Coinbase and Binance have also surged.

While Bankman-Fried begins serving his decades-long sentence that will take him into his 50s, the cryptoworld he once towered over has re-emerged in full force. The scandals spurred greater regulatory scrutiny and industry reform, but it did not freeze out crypto’s underlying blockchain technology and innovative potential.

For the disgraced founder, his 25-year prison term essentially equates to a life sentence in the prime years of his career. The judge made clear that Bankman-Fried’s actions were “reprehensible” and deserved severe consequences as a deterrent to corporate bad actors. Crypto’s future, however, shines brightly again – a stark contrast to the deep craters left in the wake of FTX’s seismic implosion just over a year ago.

PDS Biotechnology (PDSB) – FY2023 Results Included Changes In Development Strategy

Posted on March 28, 2024March 28, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Thursday, March 28, 2024

PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

FY2023 Financial Results Included Updated Clinical Trial Strategy. PDS Reported a FY2023 loss of $44.3 million or $(1.43) per share, with cash on December 31, 2023, of $42.9 million. Importantly, the company changed its clinical development plan for PDS1010 and PDS01ADC. The Phase 3 VERSAMUNE-003 will not begin as we expected in 1H24. A Phase 3 trial testing the Triple-Therapy combination will be conducted instead.

Decision Was Driven By Data From Two Trials. PDS has completed two Phase 2 trials, its VERSATILE-002 trial and the Triple Combination Study conducted by the National Cancer Institute (NCI). VERSATILE-002 trial tested the combination of PDS0101 with Keytruda (pembrolizumab, a PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor), while the Triple Therapy Trial tested PDS0101, a checkpoint inhibitor, and PDS01ADC, a proprietary IL-12-derived molecule.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Boundless Bio $100M IPO to Advance Novel Cancer Therapies

Posted on March 28, 2024March 28, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Boundless Bio, a biotech company pioneering a new approach to treating cancer, made its public debut on the Nasdaq stock exchange today in a $100 million initial public offering. The Cambridge, Massachusetts company is the latest biotech firm to go public in 2024 after last year’s IPO drought, pricing its shares at $16 each under the ticker symbol “BOLD.”

The $100 million capital raise will provide a major boost to Boundless Bio’s pipeline of experimental cancer therapies that target extrachromosomal DNA (ecDNA), double-stranded DNA molecules that exist outside of chromosomes and can contain amplified oncogenes driving tumor growth.

“EcDNA represents an exciting new frontier in cancer biology and a promising opportunity for therapeutic intervention,” said Zachary Hartman, CEO of Boundless Bio. “With this successful IPO, we are now well-capitalized to advance our novel ecDNA-targeted candidates through clinical trials and hopefully translate this cutting-edge science into meaningful treatments for patients.”

Leading the way for Boundless is BBI-355, the company’s most advanced program that inhibits checkpoint kinase 1, an enzyme involved in ecDNA replication and transcription. BBI-355 is currently being evaluated in the Phase 1/2 POTENTIATE study, with initial data from up to 90 patients expected in the second half of this year.

Not far behind is BBI-825, an oral ribonucleotide reductase inhibitor that targets a different mechanism related to ecDNA biology. This second clinical candidate entered Phase 1/2 testing just last month in the STARMAP trial, with early results anticipated in late 2025.

In addition to developing therapeutics, a portion of the $100 million IPO proceeds will fund Boundless Bio’s efforts to create a diagnostic test called ECHO to detect ecDNA levels in cancer patients’ tumors. The company believes this could enable more precise treatment by identifying patients most likely to respond to ecDNA-targeted therapies.

The successful Nasdaq listing bucks the trend of a biotech IPO market that was essentially frozen in 2023 amid volatile market conditions. But investor sentiment appears to have rebounded in 2024, with Boundless Bio becoming the seventh biotech to go public so far this year.

“This is an incredibly promising time for Boundless Bio and for companies working on novel modalities that could reshape cancer treatment,” said Tricia Lorida, a biotech analyst at SVB Securities. “While ecDNA therapies are still at an early stage, there is certainly excitement around targeting these unique DNA drivers of tumor growth and genomic instability.”

Boundless Bio’s IPO was led by Goldman Sachs, Guggenheim Securities, Piper Sandler, and Leerink Partners as joint book-running managers. The company granted underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 937,500 shares at the IPO price, which could raise the total deal proceeds to $115 million if exercised in full.

With the $100 million-plus capital infusion, Boundless Bio is well-positioned to advance its pioneering work in the emerging field of ecDNA biology as the company aims to unlock new therapeutic options for cancer patients. The successful IPO marks an ambitious first step, but much will ride on the clinical data readouts expected over the next couple of years.

The successful $100 million IPO by Boundless Bio could pave the way for more biotech companies to tap the public markets in 2024 as investor appetite appears to be returning. After a dismal 2023 that saw very few biotechs go public, the new year has brought a flurry of IPO activity, with Boundless Bio becoming the seventh biotech to debut on the Nasdaq. Other drug developers waiting in the wings may seize the opportunity to join the IPO queue if market conditions remain favorable. An opening of the IPO window would provide a crucial capital infusion for biotech firms to continue advancing their R&D programs amid a challenging funding environment. While clinical data will ultimately determine the fates of these newly public companies, a reinvigorated IPO market bodes well for biotech innovation lingering in the pipeline.

Big Pharma Goes Bio-Prospecting: Why Major Drug Makers Are Buying Innovative Biotech Startups

Posted on March 27, 2024March 27, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The biotech sector has seen a flurry of acquisition activity in recent months, with large pharmaceutical companies opening their checkbooks to snap up promising small and micro-cap players. This deal-making frenzy underscores the value that nimble startups can bring to big pharma through their cutting-edge research and drug development pipelines.

For the pharmaceutical giants, acquiring innovative biotechs provides a vital influx of new drug candidates and therapies to revitalize stagnant pipelines and drive future revenue growth. Many large drug makers have struggled to internally develop enough new blockbuster treatments to replace aging cash cows going off-patent. Rather than go it alone in risky early-stage R&D, they are turning to biotech upstarts working at the frontiers of medicine.

These small biotech firms are proving to be fertile ground for novel drug discoveries. Despite their tiny team and budget, biotech startups can move nimbly to translate university research into therapeutic candidates. Their laser focus on narrow areas like orphan diseases, gene therapies, or targeted oncology treatments allows them to rapidly innovate in ways that large pharma bureaucracies cannot.

By acquiring these startups, big pharma gains a fast-track to promising new drugs and therapies that would take years and billions to develop internally. They can get first-mover advantage on groundbreaking new treatment modalities. Just as importantly, they acquire the entrepreneurial scientific talent behind the discoveries.

This acquisition appetite from pharma giants shows no signs of slowing. Just this month, AbbieVie acquired small biotech Landos Biopharma for $212 million to gain its promising autoimmune pipeline. AstraZeneca paid $2.4 billion for Fusion Pharmaceuticals and its next-gen oncology radioconjugates. The list goes on.

The drivers behind this deal surge were presciently spotted by Channelchek back in December 2023. Channelchek’s biotech research analysis predicted that the beaten-down biotech sector was poised for a major rebound, writing:

“The fresh upswing in biotech M&A follows a wave of dip buying from some the world’s largest asset managers in shares of industry leaders like Vertex Pharmaceuticals and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has been particularly aggressive stepping in to purchase stakes in key biopharma bluechips.”

Channelchek’s forecast proved accurate, as biotech stocks have rallied and M&A activity has heated up in recent months. Big pharma’s shopping spree for innovative biotechs continues to gain momentum.

As Nico Pronk, Chief Executive Officer at Noble Capital Markets, stated: “Our platform aims to help amplify the stories of these cutting-edge biotech innovators to the investors and strategic partners seeking out emerging growth opportunities.” There is a funding gulf that still exists for startups looking to take their discoveries to the next level.

For investors and emerging biotechs seeking to capitalize on this next wave of consolidation, Noble Capital Markets is hosting its Emerging Growth Virtual Healthcare Equity Conference on April 17-18, 2024. This online investor forum will allow public healthcare, biotech and medical devices firms to present their company stories directly to institutional funds, family offices, and retail investor audiences. To register for this event showcasing the future disruptors of healthcare, visit the conference registration page here.

The big pharma acquisition binge shines a light on the value that small, innovative biotech players can bring to the healthcare ecosystem through their scientific discoveries. With deep-pocketed buyers on the prowl, the stage is set for the next generation of medical breakthroughs to be commercialized at scale.

Alamos Gold’s Acquisition of Argonaut Gold Points to Renewed Anticipation Mining Sector

Posted on March 27, 2024March 27, 2024 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The gold mining industry saw an intriguing deal announced this week, with mid-tier producer Alamos Gold Inc. unveiling plans to acquire smaller rival Argonaut Gold Inc. for US$325 million. The transaction highlights an ongoing trend of consolidation in the metals mining space, as bigger players look to grow through acquisitions of promising assets and companies.

For Alamos, the main prize in this deal is the Magino development project in Ontario, Canada owned by Argonaut. Located right next door to Alamos’ Island Gold mine, Magino provides the company an opportunity to combine the two operations into one large, low-cost complex. Alamos expects to realize over US$500 million in synergies by integrating the two adjacent mines.

The acquisition of Magino significantly increases Alamos’ production profile. The combined company is expected to produce over 600,000 ounces of gold annually in the near-term, with longer-term potential exceeding 900,000 ounces per year at declining costs. This expanded scale bolsters Alamos’ position as one of Canada’s largest and lowest cost gold producers.

While Alamos gains Magino through this transaction, Argonaut’s other assets in the U.S. and Mexico will be spun out into a newly created company called SpinCo that will be owned by Argonaut’s current shareholders. This includes the operating Florida Canyon mine in Nevada as well as several development and exploration projects in Mexico.

The Alamos-Argonaut deal follows a number of similar acquisitions of smaller gold companies by more established miners over the past year. In 2023, Agnico Eagle Mines acquired Teck Resources’ minority stake in the Minas de San Nicolas mine in Mexico, while Kinross Gold acquired Great Bear Resources and its promising Dixie project in Ontario. Going back to 2022, there were several billion-dollar M&A transactions, including Newmont’s acquisition of Newcrest’s stake in the Cadia mine and Yamana Gold’s takeover by the Pan American Silver and Agnico Eagle joint venture.

According to analysts, this renewed appetite for M&A activity reflects a growing consensus that a new bull cycle may be emerging for precious metals like gold and silver. Record high inflation rates, continued economic uncertainty, and a lack of major new production sources coming online have contributed to this increasingly bullish outlook.

The major gold producers are acquiring to restock their project pipelines and take advantage of prevailing low valuations for many junior developers and explorers. With higher metals prices anticipated, the big miners want to get positioned now ahead of the curve.

In addition to building out their growth profiles through M&A, the large miners are also investing heavily in exploration and advancing their existing development projects. This dual strategy of acquisitions and organic growth initiatives should help drive a new phase of production growth across the sector in the coming years as a potential bull market unfolds.

For smaller mining companies like Argonaut, deals like this provide an attractive exit opportunity and way to unlock value for shareholders. But they also highlight the continual restructuring happening in the mining space, as promising assets and companies get consolidated into the hands of more well-capitalized mid-tier and senior producers.

With metals prices expected to keep rising on the back of supply/demand imbalances, this wave of consolidation could be just the beginning. Analysts anticipate an acceleration of M&A activity as the big miners look to position themselves for the next bullish upswing in the commodity cycle.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list in the metals & mining sector.