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Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Definitive Agreement to Advance the Thormodsdalur Gold Project in Iceland

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Wednesday, April 29, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strategic partnership. Aurania Resources Ltd. entered into a definitive earn-in agreement with St-Georges Eco-Mining Corp. (CSE: SX) and its subsidiary Iceland Resources to advance the Thormodsdalur gold project (Thor’s Valley) in Iceland. Located near Reykjavik, the project is considered a highly prospective epithermal gold system, and the partnership is intended to support a structured exploration program aimed at defining its resource potential.

Key agreement terms. Under the agreement, Aurania will issue shares valued at US$150.0 thousand and commit to USD $5.0 million in exploration spending over four years in order to earn a 70% interest in the project. St-Georges retains the option to hold a minority interest or a royalty, while Aurania may increase its ownership to full control through additional investment. We expect the transaction to close in early May pending the satisfaction of certain conditions, including approval by the TSX Venture Exchange. We will update our estimates to reflect planned expenditures once the transaction closes.


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The OPEC Unraveling Is Coming — Small Cap Energy Investors Need to Pay Attention Now

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The United Arab Emirates officially announced Tuesday it will exit OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, ending a nearly 60-year membership and dealing one of the most significant structural blows the cartel has ever absorbed. For small cap energy investors, the implications go well beyond a headline — they cut directly to the viability of smaller domestic producers in a post-OPEC world.

The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer, operating under a quota that capped output at 3.2 million barrels per day despite having the capacity to produce closer to 5 million barrels per day. That constraint is now gone. When the Strait of Hormuz — currently throttled by the ongoing Iran conflict — eventually reopens, the UAE will have every incentive and infrastructure in place to flood the market with uncapped supply. The question for small cap investors isn’t if that happens. It’s whether their holdings can survive the price environment that follows.

The Breakeven Problem for Small Producers

This is where it gets critical. According to Dallas Fed survey data, small E&P firms — those producing fewer than 10,000 barrels per day — need roughly $68 per barrel of WTI to profitably drill new wells. Large firms cross that threshold at $59. That $9 gap matters enormously when supply-side pressure starts pushing prices lower.

Current WTI price forecasts for 2026 range from approximately $49 to $57 per barrel under normal supply conditions — already below what most small producers need to justify new drilling. Add in an unconstrained UAE ramping toward 5 million barrels per day the moment the strait clears, and that pricing pressure compounds fast.

Right now, the Iran conflict is artificially inflating oil prices and masking this risk for small cap E&P names. WTI spot prices averaged $94.65 per barrel during a recent Dallas Fed survey period, creating a window of strong cash flow for smaller producers. But that window is not permanent — and the UAE’s exit from OPEC just made the post-conflict supply surge considerably larger than markets had previously priced in.

OPEC Loses Its Shock Absorber

Energy research firm Rystad Energy noted that losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity removes a real tool from the group’s hands, leaving Saudi Arabia to shoulder more of the burden for price stability with a weakened coalition. Fewer members means less collective discipline, and less discipline means more downside risk for oil prices over time.

The UAE’s exit reduces the number of producers participating in coordinated output decisions, accelerating a trend that has been eroding OPEC’s market authority for years — first through the U.S. shale boom, then through Qatar’s 2019 departure, and now this.

What Small Cap Investors Should Be Doing Now

The current elevated price environment is a gift — not a guarantee. Small cap energy investors should be pressure-testing their holdings against a $55–$60 WTI scenario, scrutinizing balance sheets and hedging programs, and distinguishing between producers with low-cost existing production versus those dependent on new drilling economics to sustain output. Companies with high leverage and no hedges are the most exposed when the supply picture normalizes.

The UAE didn’t just leave a cartel. It signaled that the era of coordinated supply management as a reliable price floor is deteriorating — and for small cap energy names operating on thin margins, that structural shift demands a closer look at the portfolio today, not after the Strait reopens.

Powell’s Final Chapter at the Fed Opens a New Era of Market Uncertainty

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Wednesday marks what is widely expected to be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s final policy meeting and press conference at the helm of the central bank — and while the transition has been months in the making, the full implications for markets, particularly small and microcap stocks, are only beginning to come into focus.

Powell’s term as chair officially concludes on May 15, though a lingering question remains: will he stay on as a Fed governor, a role he could hold until 2028? The answer may hinge less on politics and more on unfinished business.

The Department of Justice launched a probe earlier this year into whether Powell misled Congress about cost overruns on renovations to the Fed’s Washington headquarters — a project that has ballooned from an initial $1.9 billion estimate in 2021 to nearly $2.5 billion. Last Friday, the DOJ closed its investigation and transferred the matter to the Fed’s own inspector general. That move cleared the path for Powell’s intended successor, Kevin Warsh, whose Senate confirmation had been blocked by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina until the probe was resolved. Tillis quickly reversed course over the weekend, signaling his support for Warsh’s nomination.

Even so, analysts expect Powell to remain on the Fed’s board until the inspector general’s review reaches a definitive conclusion — a process that could take months. The reasoning is straightforward: Powell has publicly stated he has no intention of stepping down from the board until the investigation is fully and transparently resolved. Some economists argue his continued presence could serve as an institutional anchor during what promises to be a significant shift in how the central bank operates.

That shift is the bigger story — and the one with direct consequences for small and microcap investors.

Warsh, a former Fed governor with Wall Street credentials, has been explicit about his desire for what he calls “regime change” at the Fed. His priorities include reverting to a strict 2% inflation target, abandoning the forward guidance framework that markets have relied on for years, scaling back the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, and reducing how frequently Fed officials communicate publicly about policy. He has also declined to commit to holding a press conference after every FOMC meeting — a practice Powell institutionalized.

For the small and microcap universe, this matters enormously. Rate policy is not a distant abstraction for smaller companies — it is a direct line item. Nearly 70% of small-cap companies generate more than 90% of their revenue domestically, making them acutely sensitive to U.S. borrowing costs. Variable rate debt, which is disproportionately common among smaller companies, becomes a margin problem when rate cuts fail to materialize.

Markets had been pricing in multiple cuts through 2026. The CME FedWatch tool now reflects expectations of no more than one cut for the year, and a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to remain unchanged through September. If Warsh’s hawkish posture holds after confirmation — and there is little reason to believe it won’t — companies carrying heavy debt loads with near-term refinancing needs face real pressure.

The transition also introduces something arguably more dangerous than high rates: ambiguity. Less frequent communication, no forward guidance, and a new inflation framework all mean investors will be navigating without the signposts they’ve grown accustomed to. For small-cap allocators, that uncertainty translates directly into tighter positioning and a renewed premium on balance sheet quality.

Powell’s exit ends one era. What comes next is still being written — and small-cap investors would be wise to pay close attention

GDEV (GDEV) – CEO Increases Ownership Stake

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Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CEO increases ownership. The company’s founder, Chairman, and CEO, Andrey Fadeev, purchased 2,730,384 shares of the company’s stock in a private transaction from Boris Gertsovsky, co-founder and former director. Notably, following the transaction, Mr. Fadeev owns 6,709,391 shares, or approximately 37% of the company’s outstanding shares.

Transaction details. The roughly 2.7 million shares were purchased for an aggregate of $34.1 million, to be paid in three installments. The first payment of $20.0 million was paid on the closing date of March 17, 2026, with $10.0 million due on the first anniversary of the closing date, and the remaining $4.1 million due on the second anniversary of the closing date.


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First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF) – Strong Drill Results Reinforce Scale and Expansion Potential

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Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong mineral continuity and expansion potential. First Phosphate Corp. reported strong results from its 2025/2026 infill drill program at the Begin–Lamarche property, confirming continuous phosphate mineralization across all zones and identifying two new intersections. The results will support an updated geological model expected next month and underscore the potential for resource expansion.

Geological consistency across zones. Drilling confirmed consistent geology across the Mountain, Northern, and Southern zones. High-grade apatite mineralization and similar structural features across zones reinforce confidence in a cohesive and predictable deposit.


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – FY 2025 Review and Outlook

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Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter financial results. Alliance Resource Partners reported first-quarter 2026 revenue of $516.0 million, down 4.5 percent year over year due to lower coal pricing, though volumes remained stable, and 2026 expected coal sales volumes are 95% committed and priced at the midpoint of 2026 guidance. Coal operations faced margin pressure, partially offset by a modest increase in tons sold and operational improvements. Net income declined to $9.1 million primarily due to lower margins and noncash charges, including an asset impairment and digital asset valuation changes. ARLP generated adjusted EBITDA of $155.0 million, compared to $159.9 million during the prior year period. and the partnership maintained strong liquidity.

Oil and gas royalties remained a key growth driver. The oil and gas royalty segment exhibited strength, delivering record revenues and volumes driven by increased drilling activity and acquisitions. The segment continues to diversify earnings and promote cash flow stability. ARLP’s updated 2026 guidance included greater oil, natural gas, and liquids volumes.


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Microsoft and OpenAI Rewrite the Rules: What the Amended Partnership Means for the AI Landscape

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The relationship between Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and OpenAI just got a lot more complicated — and for investors watching the enterprise software and AI space, the implications stretch well beyond two companies renegotiating a contract.

On Monday, Microsoft announced a sweeping revision to its long-term partnership with OpenAI, officially ending its exclusive access to the AI startup’s intellectual property and models. Under the original agreement, Microsoft held exclusive rights to OpenAI’s IP and technology until the company achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) — a milestone defined as AI that matches or surpasses human intelligence. That clause is now gone.

The revised deal allows OpenAI to distribute its models through any cloud provider, including direct competitors like Amazon Web Services. Microsoft’s Azure platform retains its designation as OpenAI’s primary cloud infrastructure and will continue to receive first access to new OpenAI products — but the competitive moat that defined the original partnership has been significantly narrowed. In exchange, Microsoft will no longer make revenue-sharing payments to OpenAI, though OpenAI is still obligated to continue paying revenue share back to Microsoft through 2030.

MSFT shares dipped roughly 1% on the announcement.

The timing is notable. The renegotiation comes just two days before Microsoft reports quarterly earnings on Wednesday — an earnings report already under a microscope after a rough six months for the stock. MSFT has lost approximately 20% over that period, while cloud rivals Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) have surged 17% and 30%, respectively.

A key metric investors will be watching Wednesday is Azure’s growth rate. In its last reported quarter, Microsoft disclosed that Azure revenue growth was constrained by data center capacity — the business grew 38%, but management indicated it would have hit 40% with sufficient infrastructure in place. Any update on capacity buildout and AI-driven cloud demand will likely move the stock.

But the bigger story here may not be Microsoft at all — it’s what this deal signals for the broader enterprise software market. The so-called “SaaS-pocalypse” — the fear that AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic will build their own enterprise tools and disintermediate traditional software providers — has been quietly hammering the sector for months. With OpenAI now free to go directly to any cloud customer through any platform, that risk just became more tangible.

The damage is already showing up in valuations. Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) and ServiceNow (NYSE: NOW) are each down roughly 31% year-to-date. Thomson Reuters (NYSE: TRI) has shed more than 40%. These are not small-cap companies, but the ripple effects are being felt across the entire software ecosystem — including the mid-market and smaller players who compete for enterprise IT budgets.

For the small and microcap space, the takeaway is straightforward: the enterprise software stack is being repriced in real time. Companies that built their value proposition around integrating with or complementing legacy SaaS platforms need to be asking hard questions about their positioning as AI-native competitors gain distribution.

The Microsoft-OpenAI relationship has always been one of the most consequential partnerships in tech. Monday’s announcement makes it clear that even that relationship isn’t immune to the disruption reshaping the entire industry.

Lilly Bets $2.3B on Next-Gen Blood Cancer Science as Biotech M&A Keeps Its Foot on the Gas

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Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) announced today it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Ajax Therapeutics, a private biopharmaceutical company developing next-generation JAK inhibitors for patients with myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) — a group of blood cancers that includes myelofibrosis and polycythemia vera. Under the terms of the deal, Ajax shareholders could receive up to $2.3 billion in cash, comprising an upfront payment and additional milestone-based payments tied to clinical and regulatory progress.

The centerpiece of the acquisition is AJ1-11095, an investigational, once-daily oral drug that represents the first-in-class Type II JAK2 inhibitor currently in Phase 1 clinical development. That distinction matters. Every JAK2 inhibitor currently approved for MPNs — including market standards like ruxolitinib — targets the Type I conformation of JAK2. While these treatments offer symptomatic relief, a significant portion of patients eventually lose response or discontinue therapy altogether due to diminishing efficacy.

AJ1-11095 was specifically engineered to address that gap. By binding JAK2 in its inactive Type II conformation, the compound is designed to deliver deeper and more durable disease control — and potentially serve patients who have already failed on existing Type I therapies. Phase 1 dosing began in late 2024, with dose selection for future development expected later this year. First proof-of-concept clinical data is also expected to be presented in 2026.

For Lilly, this isn’t a cold acquisition. The pharma giant was a founding strategic investor in Ajax, meaning today’s deal is less a discovery and more a conviction play — Lilly has seen the science up close and is now moving to own it outright. The transaction builds on Lilly’s established blood cancer capabilities and continues what has been an aggressive dealmaking year for the Indianapolis-based company. Lilly has already announced the acquisitions of Ventyx Biosciences for $1.2 billion and Orna Therapeutics for up to $2.4 billion earlier in 2026.

Lilly’s activity isn’t an outlier — it’s a signal of where the broader market is heading. Biopharma M&A totaled $15.6 billion across 19 deals in Q1 2026 alone, a pace that reflects the structural pressure Big Pharma is operating under. An estimated $236 billion in annual revenue is at risk across the industry from patent expirations of blockbuster drugs, forcing companies to look externally for pipeline replenishment.

Emerging biopharma companies now represent 70% of all clinical-stage assets, with a significant portion remaining unpartnered — and with the IPO market yet to fully recover, many smaller biotech firms are pursuing M&A or partnerships as the most viable path forward. That dynamic creates a fertile hunting ground for acquirers with balance sheet firepower and strategic focus.

The Ajax deal is a textbook example of what is driving this wave: a differentiated mechanism, a validated scientific rationale, an unmet patient need, and a buyer that already understands the asset. For investors watching the small and micro-cap biotech space, the pattern is worth tracking. Companies developing first-in-class mechanisms in high-need therapeutic areas — particularly in oncology and hematology — are drawing premium attention from large-cap acquirers willing to pay up before Phase 3 data is in hand.

The transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions, including Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust clearance.

Ocugen (OCGN) – Clinical Progress and New Investors Could Sustain Post-Reverse Split Stock Price

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Monday, April 27, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

We Believe The Proposal Is Misunderstood. On April 20, Ocugen filed its proxy statement and Annual Meeting Notice.  In addition to the usual business and shareholder matters, there is a proposal to authorize a reverse split. We believe the reverse split could lift the stock to a trading range that meets minimum share price requirements for ownership by more index funds, institutions, and investors.

The Reverse Split Could Open The Stock To More Investors. Ocugen’s three lead clinical programs have reported data that have driven an increase in its market valuation to about $550 to $600 million. However, many index funds, institutions, and brokerage firms have requirements for both minimum share price and market valuation before they can own the stock. We believe the reverse split would help meet these requirements sooner and open the stock to new investors. We expect the stream of clinical milestones in the coming year to sustain the post-split price and drive it higher.


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Kuya Silver (KUYAF) – FY 2025 Review and Outlook

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Monday, April 27, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Significant progress in 2025. Kuya reported its financial and operational results for the fourth quarter and FY 2025, while also announcing key leadership appointments to strengthen its operations in Peru. Edgardo Orderique was named General Manager for Peru, bringing senior-level experience from major mining operations, and will oversee mining and processing at the Bethania Silver Project. He is supported by Jesus Palomino as Operations Manager and German Minaya as Finance and Administration Manager. These additions are intended to enhance execution as the company transitions from early-stage production to scaled operations with higher throughput.

Operational momentum. The company made steady progress, achieving record processing volumes and improved production consistency. Production reached approximately 100 tonnes per day in March, with a target of 350 tonnes per day by the end of 2026 under its Phase One expansion plan. This growth is supported by investments in underground development, infrastructure, and workforce training, along with modernization efforts to improve efficiency. Kuya increased its exploration program to 20,000 meters of drilling in 2026.


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Intel Breaks Its Dot-Com Ceiling: What a 26-Year Breakout Means for the Chip Sector

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Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) did something Friday that took 26 years to accomplish — it traded above its dot-com-era peak set in the year 2000. With shares surging more than 22% on the heels of a blowout first-quarter earnings report, the stock cleared a ceiling that had capped rallies multiple times over the past two decades and is now trading in price discovery territory for the first time since the internet bubble.

The catalyst was a Q1 2026 earnings print that demolished Wall Street expectations across every key metric. Intel posted revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year, against analyst consensus that had penciled in closer to $12.4 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share came in at $0.29, crushing the $0.01 estimate. For context, that’s a 28-cent beat on the bottom line — a number that tells you just how badly the Street had underestimated Intel’s momentum heading into the quarter.

The segment doing the heavy lifting is Data Center and AI. That division posted revenue growth of 22% year-over-year, making it Intel’s fastest-growing area. More telling: AI-driven business revenue surged 40% year-over-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter in which the company exceeded its own guidance. Intel Foundry — its contract manufacturing arm — also contributed meaningfully, bringing in $5.4 billion, up 20% sequentially.

It’s worth noting that Intel did report a GAAP net loss of $3.7 billion for the quarter, driven primarily by $4.1 billion in restructuring and other charges, including a Mobileye goodwill impairment. That number is real and matters, but the market’s reaction tells you investors are focused on the operating trajectory — not the one-time write-downs.

The technical story is just as significant as the fundamental one. Intel had been trapped below its 2000 peak for over two decades, with failed breakout attempts in both 2020 and 2021. The stock had already staged a remarkable recovery before earnings, rising more than 60% off its March 30 low and adding roughly $130 billion in market value in that stretch. Friday’s move didn’t just extend that rally — it changed the long-term chart structure entirely.

Intel isn’t alone in its momentum. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is currently on a 17-consecutive-day winning streak, one of the longest runs in the index’s history. The entire chip complex has been repriced higher as AI infrastructure buildout accelerates and demand for advanced silicon continues to outstrip supply.

Management guided Q2 2026 revenue to a range of $13.8 to $14.8 billion, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.20 and a non-GAAP gross margin of 39% — forward guidance that signals the company expects its momentum to hold.

The key watch now is whether Intel can close at a record high above $75.83 by the end of Friday’s session. A confirmed close above that level would be a landmark moment for one of the most watched charts in technology. A retreat back below $65, however, would reframe this move as a failed breakout — and signal the stock needs more time before it can sustain new all-time highs.

Either way, Intel’s earnings don’t just matter for INTC shareholders. They’re a read-through for semiconductor capital spending, AI chip demand, and the broader thesis that the CPU — not just the GPU — has a critical role in the next wave of AI infrastructure.

Century Lithium Corp. (CYDVF) – Century Lithium Advances Demonstration Plant Relocation

Posted on by [email protected]


Friday, April 24, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A step forward in Century’s development strategy. The company is advancing the relocation of its lithium extraction demonstration plant to Tonopah, Nevada, with commissioning expected in the second half of 2026. This facility previously operated in Amargosa Valley, where it successfully validated the company’s integrated process for producing battery-grade lithium carbonate from claystone. Current efforts include equipment transfer, construction of a new processing facility, and permitting activities, alongside planned metallurgical testing to further refine extraction efficiency and production methods.

The company’s process technology provides a notable competitive advantage. Century Lithium’s patent-pending chlor-alkali process utilizes salt-based reagents generated on-site, eliminating reliance on sulfuric acid and external supply chains. This design is particularly advantageous given the significant increase in global sulfur and sulfuric acid prices, allowing the company to maintain cost stability with the use of domestically available inputs such as sodium chloride and electricity while also enabling potential revenue from surplus by-products.


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MariMed Inc (MRMD) – Rescheduling? Finally?

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Friday, April 24, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Rescheduling. Yesterday, Acting Attorney General Todd Blance announced he plans to “immediately” reschedule FDA-approved cannabis and state-licensed cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III, while also ordering a “new expedited hearing with set deadlines, to fully reschedule marijuana.” While a Schedule III listing still would not federally legalize cannabis nor allow interstate commerce, it would further legitimize state-sanctioned cannabis businesses by eliminating the tax burdens under Section 280E of the Internal Revenue Code.

280E Elimination. The elimination of the 280E burden could represent huge savings for licensed cannabis businesses, potentially running into the billions. And, significantly, Acting Attorney General Blanche’s order provides the potential of a retroactive savings, with the order stating, “The Administrator encourages the Secretary of the Treasury to consider providing retrospective relief from Section 280E liability for taxable years in which a state licensee operated under a state medical marijuana license.”


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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