Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) – Year End Review: 2026 Could Be A Pivotal Year

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, January 09, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Direct Digital remained a key strategic channel, supporting customer acquisition, margin mix improvement, and first-party data ownership despite a challenging macro and media cost environment. The channel continued to evolve toward a full-funnel model, with increasing contribution from returning customers, improved conversion rates, and greater emphasis on retention and lifecycle engagement.

Repositioning for strategic growth. Ongoing headwinds from media cost inflation, intensifying competition, and platform volatility have persisted in 2025, prompting a strategic shift toward owned-channel development, tighter audience targeting, and stronger cross-functional execution. Looking forward, Direct Digital is increasingly aligned around a more disciplined growth model, prioritizing customer retention, lifetime value, and earnings durability over volume-driven top-line expansion.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ (AZZ) – Third Quarter FY26 Review and Outlook

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, January 09, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million.

Updating estimates. With one quarter remaining, we have lowered our FY 2026 EBITDA estimate to $368.0 million from $369.2 million, and increased our EPS estimate to $6.03 from $5.98. We have increased our 2027 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $388.0 million and $6.60, respectively, from $387.4 million and $6.45. Our longer-term estimates through FY 2031 reflect multi-year growth and are summarized at the end of this report. Our estimates do not reflect the impact of acquisitions until announced.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The Real AI Arms Race: Why Power and Data Centers Are Becoming the Next Big Investment Theme

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The artificial intelligence boom is no longer just about software models and chips—it’s increasingly about power, land, and infrastructure. That reality came into sharp focus this week as OpenAI and SoftBank jointly committed $1 billion to SB Energy, a fast-growing energy and data center infrastructure company positioned at the center of America’s AI buildout.

Under the deal, OpenAI and SoftBank will each invest $500 million to support SB Energy’s expansion as a large-scale developer and operator of data centers. As part of the partnership, SB Energy has been selected to build and operate OpenAI’s 1.2-gigawatt data center in Milam County, Texas, a facility large enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes. The investment highlights a critical shift: for AI leaders, securing reliable energy has become as strategic as securing advanced chips.

AI workloads are extraordinarily power-hungry. Training and running large language models requires enormous computing capacity, which in turn drives unprecedented electricity demand. As a result, hyperscalers and AI developers are now racing to lock down long-term energy sources and infrastructure partners to avoid future bottlenecks. In this environment, companies that can deliver power at scale are emerging as essential enablers of the AI economy.

SB Energy represents a hybrid model well-suited for this moment. Originally founded as a renewable energy and storage developer and long backed by SoftBank, the company has expanded aggressively into data center development, ownership, and operations. This dual exposure to both energy production and digital infrastructure positions SB Energy as a critical middle layer between power generation and AI compute demand.

The investment also ties directly into OpenAI’s Stargate initiative, a massive joint effort with partners including SoftBank and Oracle to invest up to $500 billion in U.S. AI infrastructure over the next four years. Stargate’s ambition underscores how central physical infrastructure has become to sustaining AI growth—and why capital is flowing into companies that can execute at scale.

From an investor’s perspective, this trend carries important implications. While mega-cap tech companies dominate AI headlines, much of the real opportunity may lie one layer below, in infrastructure providers, energy developers, and specialized operators that enable AI expansion. These businesses often generate long-term contracted revenue and may benefit from structural demand regardless of short-term swings in AI sentiment.

However, the rapid interconnection between AI firms, financiers, and infrastructure developers also introduces risk. Heavy capital commitments assume that AI demand will continue to rise at an aggressive pace. If adoption slows or efficiency gains reduce power needs, some projects could face pressure. Investors should therefore favor companies with diversified customers, strong balance sheets, and assets that retain value beyond AI-specific use cases.

Ultimately, the OpenAI–SoftBank investment in SB Energy signals a broader shift: AI is becoming an infrastructure-driven industry. For investors willing to look beyond the obvious names, the companies powering the AI revolution—literally—may offer some of the most compelling opportunities in the years ahead.

Trump’s Defense Industry Whipsaw: Criticism Meets Massive Budget Boost

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

President Donald Trump delivered a one-two punch to defense sector investors this week, first lambasting major contractors for prioritizing shareholder returns over production capacity, then immediately following up with a proposed defense budget that would surge 66% to $1.5 trillion in 2027. The resulting market volatility showcased the unique risks and opportunities of investing in an industry where a single customer—the U.S. government—drives the majority of revenues.

Trump’s initial salvo came via Truth Social, where he took aim at what he characterized as misplaced priorities among defense manufacturers. The president criticized contractors for issuing substantial dividends and executing stock buybacks while production timelines stretch and maintenance capabilities lag. His proposed solution was blunt: an outright ban on dividends and buybacks until companies invest in new, modern production facilities. Trump didn’t stop there, announcing that defense executive compensation would be capped at $5 million annually until manufacturing infrastructure improves, calling current pay packages “exorbitant and unjustifiable.”

The market’s immediate reaction was predictable. Lockheed Martin dropped 4.8%, Northrop Grumman fell 5.5%, General Dynamics declined 4.2%, and RTX—specifically called out by Trump—lost 2.5%. For investors accustomed to the defense sector’s reputation as a stable, dividend-paying haven, the prospect of eliminated shareholder returns and potential executive exodus created genuine concern about the sector’s investment thesis.

But Trump’s follow-up announcement transformed the narrative entirely. His proposal to increase the 2027 defense budget from the provisioned $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion represents a massive expansion of potential contracts. This $500 billion increase dwarfs the industry’s current concerns about capital allocation, suggesting that revenue growth could more than compensate for any temporary restrictions on how companies return cash to shareholders. Trump framed the increase as necessary to build America’s “Dream Military” in what he described as “very troubled and dangerous times.”

The reversal in share prices was swift and dramatic. Lockheed Martin rebounded 4.6%, Northrop Grumman gained 3.5%, General Dynamics added 2.4%, and even RTX recovered with a 0.7% gain. Investors quickly recalculated the risk-reward equation: short-term restrictions on capital returns versus long-term revenue growth from a substantially larger defense budget.

The episode highlights several critical considerations for defense sector investors. First, political risk remains paramount in an industry where government policy can instantly reshape the investment landscape. Second, the sector’s traditional appeal as a source of reliable dividends may be under pressure in the current political environment. Third, companies that can rapidly expand production capacity may be positioned to capture disproportionate shares of increased spending.

For investors evaluating defense stocks, Trump’s dual announcements create a complex calculus. The potential 66% budget increase suggests robust revenue growth ahead, but restrictions on buybacks and dividends fundamentally alter the value proposition for income-focused investors. Companies with existing capacity expansion plans and lower current payout ratios may prove more resilient. Meanwhile, the executive compensation cap could create talent retention challenges at a time when production demands are intensifying.

The defense sector’s wild ride this week serves as a reminder that in industries dominated by government contracts, policy tweets can matter as much as earnings reports.

Coincheck Group Expands Global Footprint with 3iQ Acquisition

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Coincheck Group N.V. (Nasdaq: CNCK) has announced a significant expansion of its institutional capabilities through an agreement to acquire approximately 97% of 3iQ Corp., a pioneering digital asset investment manager based in Ontario, Canada. The transaction values 3iQ at approximately $111.8 million and represents a strategic repositioning for the Japan-focused crypto exchange as it pursues aggressive global growth. For small cap investors seeking exposure to the digital asset infrastructure space, this deal offers a compelling case study in how emerging players are consolidating capabilities to compete against larger, established financial institutions entering the crypto market.

The all-stock transaction will see Coincheck Group issue 27.1 million newly issued ordinary shares to Monex Group, its majority shareholder and current owner of the 3iQ stake. Based on an agreed share price of $4.00, the deal also includes provisions for minority shareholders to receive up to 810,435 additional shares, potentially bringing Coincheck Group’s ownership to 100%. Subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, the acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026.

Founded in 2012, 3iQ has established itself as a trailblazer in bringing digital assets into traditional investment frameworks. The company achieved several industry firsts, including launching North America’s first major exchange-listed Bitcoin and Ether funds on the Toronto Stock Exchange in 2020, and introducing the world’s first Ethereum staking ETF in 2023. More recently, 3iQ launched one of the first Solana staking ETFs and a spot-based XRP ETF in 2025. The firm’s QMAP platform, launched in 2023, provides a managed account solution for sophisticated investors seeking risk-managed digital asset exposure. Its recent partnership with UAE-based Further Asset Management to launch a market-neutral, multi-strategy hedge fund demonstrates 3iQ’s expanding geographic reach and product sophistication.

For investors in Coincheck Group, this acquisition represents a meaningful pivot toward institutional services and geographic diversification. While Coincheck has dominated Japan’s retail crypto market—ranking number one in trading app downloads for over six consecutive years—the addition of 3iQ’s institutional infrastructure opens new revenue streams in North America and beyond. This is particularly significant for small cap investors, as the deal transforms CNCK from a single-market operator into a multi-jurisdictional player with products spanning retail trading, institutional prime brokerage, and regulated investment products. The company’s current market capitalization positions it as an accessible entry point for investors who believe traditional finance’s adoption of digital assets is still in early innings. CEO Gary Simanson emphasized that the combination positions Coincheck Group to serve traditional financial institutions now seeking digital asset exposure for their clients. The company expects the acquisition to be earnings accretive, while spreading its public company costs over a more diversified revenue base.

The 3iQ deal follows Coincheck Group’s October 2025 acquisition of Aplo SAS, a Paris-based crypto prime brokerage, and its March 2025 purchase of staking platform Next Finance Tech. Management has indicated plans to create revenue synergies across these businesses, with 3iQ and Aplo cross-selling services to their respective institutional clients, and Next Finance providing staking infrastructure across the group.

The transaction highlights Coincheck Group’s ambition to evolve from a Japan-centric retail exchange into a diversified, global digital asset services provider. For small cap investors, the key questions revolve around execution: Can management successfully integrate these disparate businesses? Will institutional clients embrace the combined platform? And can the company achieve the promised synergies? With 3iQ’s proven track record and Coincheck’s operational expertise, the foundation appears solid. Investors should monitor regulatory approval progress and watch for early signs of cross-selling success as the deal approaches its anticipated Q2 2026 close.

Comstock (LODE) – Comstock Metals Achieves a Major Permitting Milestone

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, January 08, 2026

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Receipt of Air Quality Permit. Comstock Metals received its Air Quality Permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Air Pollution Control for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics at its planned industry-scale materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. Receipt of the permit is expected to enable Comstock to install, test, and commission the facility on schedule during the first quarter of 2026.

Closing in on the Written Determination Permit. The Air Quality Permit follows a notification of eligibility for a written determination permit from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection – Bureau of Sustainable Materials Management, which is now through the public notice period. Once the written determination permit is final, the two permits represent the complete scope of required regulatory approvals for commissioning the scale up of the recovery facility designed to process more than 3.0 million panels per year, representing up to 100 thousand tons per year of waste materials.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ (AZZ) – Third Quarter FY 2026 Results Outpace Expectations

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, January 08, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

FY 2026 third-quarter financial results. AZZ reported adjusted net income of $46.0 million, or $1.52 per share, compared to $41.9 million, or $1.39 per share, during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted net income of $44.9 million, or $1.48 per share. Compared to the third quarter of FY 2025, total sales increased 5.5% to $425.7 million. We had projected sales of $424.6 million. Gross margin of $101.9 million was modestly below our estimate of $103.2 million. Operating income of $69.5 million exceeded our estimate of $64.9 million, due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Adjusted EBITDA increased modestly to $91.2 million compared to $90.7 million during the prior year period and our estimate of $93.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin as a percentage of sales amounted to 21.4% compared to 22.5% during the third quarter of FY 2025.

Segment results. While Metal Coatings sales were up 15.7% compared to the prior year quarter, Precoat Metals sales were down 1.8%. Metal Coatings delivered higher sales due to increased volume driven by infrastructure-related projects in several end markets. Precoat Metals experienced lower sales due to weaker end markets, including building construction, HVAC, and transportation, partially offset by container. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin amounted to 30.3% for Metal Coatings and 19.7% for Precoat Metals.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – Monthly ETH Production

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, January 08, 2026

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Data. Bit Digital reported its monthly Ethereum (“ETH”) treasury and staking metrics for the month of December 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the Company held approximately 155,227 ETH versus 154,398.7 ETH at the end of November. Included in the ETH holdings were approximately 15,146.0 ETH and ETH-equivalents held in an externally managed fund. The Company staked an additional 642 ETH during the month. The Company’s total staked ETH was approximately 138,263, or about 89% of its total holdings as of December 31st.

Yield and Value. Staking operations generated approximately 389.6 ETH in rewards during the period, representing an annualized yield of approximately 3.5%. Based on a closing ETH price of $2,967, as of December 31, 2025, the market value of the Company’s ETH holdings was approximately $460.5 million.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – 2025 Review and 2026 Expectations

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, January 08, 2026

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2025 Review. ACCO Brands’ 2025 narrative was dominated by a clear priority: defend profitability and cash generation in a soft demand environment, using restructuring and cost takeout as the primary levers while the top line remained pressured. Across the first three quarters of 2025, demand was weak and uneven globally, and Q3 in particular underscored that as sales came in lower than expected; however, the Company still delivered adjusted earnings in line with its outlook by expanding gross margin and lowering SG&A, demonstrating meaningful operating discipline.

2026 Preview. Looking into 2026, we believe the key question for investors is whether ACCO can convert its 2025 operational progress into a durable and investable story rather than a purely defensive one. The most important variable remains organic revenue stabilization: the Company has demonstrated the ability to protect earnings despite sales declines, but the market will require evidence that declines are moderating, particularly in the Americas, and that channel inventories and promotional intensity are improving rather than worsening.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kuya Silver (KUYAF) – Vertically Integrating its Operation

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, January 07, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Private Placement Financing. Kuya Silver Corporation (OTCQB: KUYAF, CSE: KUYA) announced a brokered private placement pursuant to the listed issuer financing exemption of up to 15.0 million units of the company at a price of C$1.00 per unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to C$15.0 million. Each unit will consist of one common share and one half of one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$1.30 per common share for a period of 36 months from the date of issuance.

Use of Proceeds. Kuya intends to use the net proceeds of the offering to advance the company’s Bethania project with the acquisition of and/or development of concentrate processing capacity. Kuya is evaluating several options, each of which is fully permitted and will allow the company to vertically integrate its production capabilities. Funds may also be used to explore the Silver Kings Project in Ontario, discretionary growth capital, and for general corporate purposes.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

First Phosphate Corp. (FRSPF) – Transitioning from Exploration to Feasibility

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, January 07, 2026

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Offtake agreement. First Phosphate recently amended an offtake agreement that includes a US$0.53 million upfront pre-payment during the fourth quarter of FY 2026. The funds will be used to advance the Begin-Lamarche project towards a feasibility study and later, production. The prepayment is subject to refund should First Phosphate decide not to pursue a feasibility study or production, neither of which we anticipate. In our view, the prepayment validates downstream interest and reinforces the strategic relevance of the Company’s integrated phosphate platform.

Final tranches of private placement. The Company closed the third and fourth tranches of its oversubscribed non-brokered private placement in December, raising approximately $9.6 million in gross proceeds and bringing total capital raised since June 2022 to approximately $49.7 million. Following recent warrant exercises and the offtake pre-payment, management indicates cash on hand of approximately $24 million, which we believe is sufficient to fund planned activities through 2026 and into 2027.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Updating 2025 Estimates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, January 07, 2026

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating 2025 estimates. We have lowered our Q4 and FY 2025 EPU estimates to $0.57 and $2.33, respectively, from $0.69 and $2.45. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 568 bitcoins as of September 30. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $114,056 on September 30. We anticipate the value of digital assets in Q4 2025 could decrease by approximately $15.1 million if all bitcoins were held through the fourth quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate. 

Looking ahead. While our 2026 and 2027 estimates are unchanged, we think coal supply and demand fundamentals could strengthen going into 2027, which could have a positive impact on pricing. Actions taken by the Trump Administration are expected to support and sustain coal-fired power generation. Electricity demand growth is expected to be driven by industrial growth, electrification, and the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

US Labor Market Shows Continued Weakness as November Job Openings Miss Expectations

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The US labor market’s sluggish trajectory continued in November, with newly released government data revealing a sharper-than-expected decline in job openings and historically weak hiring activity. The figures paint a picture of an economy caught in what economists are calling a “no-hire, no-fire” limbo, where employers remain cautious about expansion while largely avoiding layoffs.

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 7.15 million job openings at the end of November, falling short of the 7.6 million economists had projected. This marks a continuation of the downward trend in available positions, with October’s figures also revised lower from 7.7 million to 7.45 million. The decline was particularly pronounced in accommodation and food services as well as transportation and warehousing, though construction showed some gains.

The timing of these weakness signals is notable, as November also saw the unemployment rate climb to a four-year high of 4.6%. This combination of rising joblessness and declining opportunities suggests the labor market may be losing momentum more rapidly than many forecasters anticipated.

Perhaps most concerning is the collapse in hiring activity. The hiring rate dropped to just 3.2% in November, marking one of the weakest readings since the Great Recession. Only April 2020, during the depths of the pandemic lockdowns, recorded a lower rate at 3.1%. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, characterized the situation bluntly as a “hiring recession,” noting that virtually no jobs have been added outside the healthcare sector since April.

The data reveals an economy where workers and employers alike are playing it safe. While separations held steady at 5.1 million—unchanged from both October and the previous year—the quits rate rose to 2%. This metric, traditionally viewed as a gauge of worker confidence, suggests employees retain some optimism about finding new opportunities, even as hiring activity stalls.

Not all indicators are pointing downward, however. Data from payroll processor ADP showed private employers added 41,000 positions in December, recovering from losses in the previous month. Bank of America’s internal employment analysis echoed this modest improvement, suggesting that the worst of the labor market slowdown may be behind us. The bank’s institute noted that while the “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic persists, there are signs that the deceleration may have stabilized.

As markets await Friday’s official unemployment data for December, the November figures serve as a reminder of the delicate balance facing policymakers. The Federal Reserve must navigate between supporting a weakening labor market and managing inflation concerns, all while employers demonstrate reluctance to commit to significant workforce expansion.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether this represents a temporary soft patch or the beginning of a more sustained period of labor market weakness.