slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com, Author at Channelchek

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Updating 2025 Estimates

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wednesday, January 07, 2026

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating 2025 estimates. We have lowered our Q4 and FY 2025 EPU estimates to $0.57 and $2.33, respectively, from $0.69 and $2.45. We have marked-to-market ARLP’s holding of bitcoins, which amounted to 568 bitcoins as of September 30. The price of bitcoin closed at $87,508.83 on December 31, 2025, compared to $114,056 on September 30. We anticipate the value of digital assets in Q4 2025 could decrease by approximately $15.1 million if all bitcoins were held through the fourth quarter. Because it would represent a non-cash unrealized loss, it has no impact on our adjusted EBITDA estimate.

Looking ahead. While our 2026 and 2027 estimates are unchanged, we think coal supply and demand fundamentals could strengthen going into 2027, which could have a positive impact on pricing. Actions taken by the Trump Administration are expected to support and sustain coal-fired power generation. Electricity demand growth is expected to be driven by industrial growth, electrification, and the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

US Labor Market Shows Continued Weakness as November Job Openings Miss Expectations

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The US labor market’s sluggish trajectory continued in November, with newly released government data revealing a sharper-than-expected decline in job openings and historically weak hiring activity. The figures paint a picture of an economy caught in what economists are calling a “no-hire, no-fire” limbo, where employers remain cautious about expansion while largely avoiding layoffs.

According to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were 7.15 million job openings at the end of November, falling short of the 7.6 million economists had projected. This marks a continuation of the downward trend in available positions, with October’s figures also revised lower from 7.7 million to 7.45 million. The decline was particularly pronounced in accommodation and food services as well as transportation and warehousing, though construction showed some gains.

The timing of these weakness signals is notable, as November also saw the unemployment rate climb to a four-year high of 4.6%. This combination of rising joblessness and declining opportunities suggests the labor market may be losing momentum more rapidly than many forecasters anticipated.

Perhaps most concerning is the collapse in hiring activity. The hiring rate dropped to just 3.2% in November, marking one of the weakest readings since the Great Recession. Only April 2020, during the depths of the pandemic lockdowns, recorded a lower rate at 3.1%. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, characterized the situation bluntly as a “hiring recession,” noting that virtually no jobs have been added outside the healthcare sector since April.

The data reveals an economy where workers and employers alike are playing it safe. While separations held steady at 5.1 million—unchanged from both October and the previous year—the quits rate rose to 2%. This metric, traditionally viewed as a gauge of worker confidence, suggests employees retain some optimism about finding new opportunities, even as hiring activity stalls.

Not all indicators are pointing downward, however. Data from payroll processor ADP showed private employers added 41,000 positions in December, recovering from losses in the previous month. Bank of America’s internal employment analysis echoed this modest improvement, suggesting that the worst of the labor market slowdown may be behind us. The bank’s institute noted that while the “low-hire, low-fire” dynamic persists, there are signs that the deceleration may have stabilized.

As markets await Friday’s official unemployment data for December, the November figures serve as a reminder of the delicate balance facing policymakers. The Federal Reserve must navigate between supporting a weakening labor market and managing inflation concerns, all while employers demonstrate reluctance to commit to significant workforce expansion.

The coming months will be critical in determining whether this represents a temporary soft patch or the beginning of a more sustained period of labor market weakness.

Copper Retreats From Record Highs as Profit-Taking Erases Recent Gains

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

After an extraordinary rally that saw copper prices surge more than 40% in 2025, the industrial metal has tumbled from record highs as traders rush to lock in profits from what many analysts are calling an overheated market. The sharp reversal underscores the volatility gripping global commodity markets and raises questions about whether the recent bull run in metals can sustain its momentum.

Copper futures dropped 2.6% to close at $12,899.50 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, part of a broader selloff that saw nickel plunge 3.4% and zinc fall by similar margins. The decline marks a dramatic shift from the frenzied buying that characterized recent weeks, driven largely by speculative capital flooding into China’s domestic metals markets.

The rapid ascent had left many market participants nervous. Ed Meir, an analyst at Marex, noted that the markets are experiencing a broad retreat typical of situations where price movements become oversized. Base metals analysts have been scrambling to justify valuations that climbed faster than underlying fundamentals could support, and the correction appears to be the market’s way of restoring equilibrium.

Copper’s remarkable 40% gain in 2025 represented its strongest annual performance since the recovery year of 2009. The rally was fueled by a perfect storm of supply disruptions at major mines and strategic stockpiling by traders anticipating potential US tariffs on metal imports. This combination of tight supply and precautionary demand pushed prices to levels that, in hindsight, may have been unsustainable in the short term.

Nickel’s trajectory proved even more dramatic. The battery and stainless steel component notched its biggest single-day gain in over three years on Tuesday, surging as much as 10.5% intraday before reaching a fresh 19-month high Wednesday morning. However, the euphoria was short-lived as profit-taking quickly reversed those gains.

The nickel rally had been propelled by genuine supply concerns in top producer Indonesia, where government plans to reduce production and impose punitive fines on miners violating forestry permits threatened to disrupt output significantly. Chinese traders also contributed to the buying frenzy, stocking up ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday when industrial activity traditionally slows.

Yet beneath the speculative fervor lies a more sobering reality. As Fan Jianyuan, an analyst at Mysteel Global, pointed out, the rally was largely driven by financial capital inflows rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics. The nickel market remains in surplus, with years of surging Indonesian production having driven global inventories sharply higher. Evidence of continued oversupply emerged Wednesday when London Metal Exchange stockpiles jumped by the most in six years.

This disconnect between speculative enthusiasm and fundamental realities highlights the challenge facing metals markets. While many traders maintain bullish long-term views on copper and other industrial metals—driven by electrification, renewable energy infrastructure, and the green transition—the speed and magnitude of recent price movements have created conditions ripe for volatile corrections.

For investors and industry participants, the lesson is clear: even markets with strong structural tailwinds can experience sharp reversals when prices outpace fundamentals. As the dust settles from this latest selloff, the focus will return to whether underlying demand can justify the elevated price levels that remain despite the recent pullback.

Nvidia’s CES Comments Ignite Breakout Rally in Sandisk Shares

Posted on January 7, 2026January 7, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Sandisk Corp. has emerged as one of the most explosive stocks in the early days of 2026, with a rally that has captured Wall Street’s attention and reshaped expectations for the memory and storage sector. Shares of the company surged as much as 25% on Tuesday, marking their best intraday performance since February and pushing the stock to a fresh record high. The move followed comments from Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang at the CES technology conference, where he underscored the critical — and largely untapped — role of storage in the artificial intelligence boom.

Sandisk’s gains extend far beyond a single trading session. The stock has climbed more than 40% in the first three trading days of the new year and has skyrocketed roughly 1,050% since bottoming out in April 2025. On Tuesday alone, it stood as the best-performing stock in the S&P 500, outpacing peers across the memory and storage ecosystem. Western Digital and Seagate Technology also posted double-digit percentage gains, reflecting renewed enthusiasm for companies tied to data storage infrastructure.

At the heart of the rally are Huang’s remarks about what he described as a massive, underserved market. Speaking at CES, the Nvidia CEO said storage represents “a completely unserved market today,” adding that it could become the largest storage market in the world as it evolves to hold the working memory of artificial intelligence systems. His comments reinforced a growing narrative that AI’s next phase will not be limited to compute power alone, but will increasingly depend on fast, scalable, and affordable memory and storage solutions.

Industry fundamentals appear to support that thesis. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jake Silverman, tight supply conditions and rising memory prices are already benefiting digital storage companies. The surge in demand is being driven by both AI training and inferencing, which require enormous volumes of data to be stored, accessed, and processed efficiently. Huang’s CES commentary, Silverman noted, suggests that demand for NAND storage will remain strong across Nvidia-powered systems.

Pricing trends add further fuel to the bullish outlook. Memory prices have been climbing steadily, and reports from Korea Economic Daily indicate that Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are seeking to raise server DRAM prices by as much as 60% to 70% in the first quarter compared with the prior quarter. Such increases signal a supply-demand imbalance that could continue to lift margins across the sector.

Wall Street analysts are increasingly framing Sandisk and its peers as central players in the next leg of the AI investment cycle. Bank of America analysts, led by Wamsi Mohan, recently described memory and storage companies as “key beneficiaries” of the push toward AI inferencing and edge computing in 2026. As organizations retain more data for training, analytics, and regulatory compliance, demand for storage is expected to surge. Mohan highlighted expanding use cases across drones, surveillance systems, vehicles, and sports technology as areas of rapid growth.

While the AI narrative has so far been dominated by capital spending on chips and data centers, analysts argue that the focus is beginning to shift. Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, AI inferencing — and the storage required to support it — may dominate the next wave of hardware investment. For Sandisk, that shift has already translated into a historic rally, and investors are betting the momentum is far from over.

Gyre Therapeutics, Inc (GYRE) – Hydronidone NDA Planned For 1H26, Meeting Expected Milestone

Posted on January 6, 2026January 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Tuesday, January 06, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Positive Guidance Received From CDE. Gyre announced that its majority-owned subsidiary in China, Gyre Pharmaceuticals Ltd, has completed pre-NDA discussions with the Chinese Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE). The CDE indicated that the Phase 3 data meets the requirements for approval in chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis, as expected. An NDA submission is planned for 1H26, meeting our expected milestones for the product and the company.

Approval Would Allow Full Commercialization. Under the CDE regulations, the Phase 3 supports Conditional Approval for Hydronidone, allowing full commercialization. As part of the approval, company agrees to conduct a Phase 3c study after commercialization to confirm the effects seen in Phase 3. This is similar to a Phase 4 study in the US. The study design has not be finalized, although we expect similar endpoints for confirmation of the Phase 3 data.

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Nvidia’s Market Dominance Faces Growing Challenges in 2026

Posted on January 6, 2026January 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The world’s most valuable company is entering 2026 on uncertain footing. Nvidia shares have declined roughly 8% since hitting a record on October 29, losing $460 billion in market value over recent months while underperforming the broader S&P 500. The pullback comes as investors question the sustainability of AI spending and whether the chip giant can maintain its stranglehold on the accelerator market.

The decline is striking given Nvidia’s remarkable three-year run, which saw the stock surge more than 1,200% since late 2022 and pushed its market capitalization above $5 trillion at its peak. The company remains the single biggest contributor to the current bull market, accounting for approximately 16% of the S&P 500’s advance since October 2022—more than double Apple’s contribution. Any sustained weakness in Nvidia would reverberate across most equity portfolios.

Competition is intensifying from multiple directions. Advanced Micro Devices has secured major data center contracts with OpenAI and Oracle, with its data center revenue projected to jump about 60% to nearly $26 billion in 2026. More significantly, Nvidia’s largest customers are developing their own chips to circumvent the expense of buying Nvidia’s accelerators, which can exceed $30,000 each. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—collectively representing over 40% of Nvidia’s revenue—are all building internal alternatives.

Google has been working on tensor processing units for over a decade and recently optimized its latest Gemini AI chatbot to run on these proprietary chips. The company announced a chip deal with Anthropic valued in the tens of billions of dollars, and reports suggest Meta is negotiating to rent Google Cloud chips for use in 2027 data centers. This shift toward custom silicon is lifting companies like Broadcom, whose application-specific integrated circuit business has helped vault its market capitalization to $1.6 trillion, surpassing Tesla.

Nvidia’s December licensing deal with startup chipmaker Groq appears to acknowledge the growing demand for specialized, lower-cost alternatives. The company plans to incorporate elements of Groq’s low-latency semiconductor technology into future designs, suggesting even the market leader recognizes it must adapt to changing customer preferences.

Despite these headwinds, Wall Street remains largely bullish. Of the 82 analysts covering Nvidia, 76 maintain buy ratings with only one recommending a sale. The average price target implies a 37% gain over the next year, which would push the company’s valuation above $6 trillion. CEO Jensen Huang declared at CES that demand for Nvidia GPUs is “skyrocketing” as AI models increase by an order of magnitude annually, with the company’s next-generation Rubin chips nearing release.

Investors are closely monitoring Nvidia’s profit margins as competition heats up. The company’s gross margin dipped in fiscal 2026 due to higher costs from ramping up its Blackwell chip series, falling to a projected 71.2% from the mid-70s percentage range in previous years. Management expects margins to recover to around 75% in fiscal 2027, but any shortfall would likely trigger concern on Wall Street.

Interestingly, Nvidia trades at a relatively modest valuation of 25 times forward earnings despite expectations for 57% profit growth on a 53% revenue increase in its next fiscal year. This multiple is lower than most Magnificent Seven stocks except Meta, and cheaper than over a quarter of S&P 500 companies. Some analysts view this as opportunity, arguing the stock is priced as if the AI cycle has already ended.

The AI infrastructure buildout remains massive, with Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta projected to spend over $400 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, much of it directed toward data center equipment. Even as Big Tech develops internal chips, the computing power requirements are so enormous that companies continue purchasing Nvidia’s products. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts expect Nvidia’s market share to remain intact for the foreseeable future, though maintaining 90% dominance will clearly be more challenging than before.

Michael Burry Discloses Long-Held Valero Position Tied to Venezuela

Posted on January 6, 2026January 6, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

When Michael Burry makes a move, investors pay attention. The man who famously predicted the 2008 housing crisis has been quietly holding a position since 2020 that suddenly looks prescient following this weekend’s dramatic events in Venezuela. In a Monday blog post on Substack, Burry revealed he’s owned Valero Energy for five years, describing himself as “more resolved to holding it even longer” after President Trump’s pledge to rebuild Venezuela’s oil sector.

Burry’s thesis is straightforward but powerful. Many Gulf Coast refineries were specifically designed to process Venezuelan heavy crude, meaning they’ve been operating with suboptimal feedstock for years due to sanctions and Venezuela’s production collapse. As Venezuelan oil flows return, these refineries should see improved margins across jet fuel, asphalt, and diesel. Valero shares surged nearly 10% on Monday, vindicating Burry’s patience. The refiner’s capability to efficiently process heavy, high-sulfur crude creates a natural moat that Burry clearly recognized back in 2020, long before this political inflection point.

But Burry isn’t just focused on the obvious large-cap play. He specifically mentioned that smaller refiners like PBF Energy and HF Sinclair could also benefit, even if Venezuelan oil returns only gradually. This acknowledgment of opportunity across the market cap spectrum is noteworthy and particularly relevant for small-cap investors looking beyond the headlines. While any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan exports will likely take years, Burry’s willingness to highlight mid-sized players suggests he sees value throughout the sector.

The investor’s analysis extends beyond refining. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has suffered from decades of underinvestment, creating substantial demand for oilfield services companies if large-scale rehabilitation begins. Burry disclosed he owns Halliburton and sees potential upside for Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, companies that could be contracted to rebuild deteriorated pipelines and refineries. His comment about potentially buying more Halliburton shares or LEAPs—long-term options contracts—reveals his conviction level and provides a template for how investors might gain leveraged exposure while managing risk.

The timing of Burry’s revelation is significant. He’s held Valero since 2020, a period when Venezuela remained under heavy sanctions and most investors dismissed Venezuelan oil as a dead opportunity. This patience reflects his contrarian nature and willingness to endure extended periods where the market disagrees with his thesis. Wall Street analysts are now rushing to validate what Burry saw years ago, with multiple firms highlighting Valero as a top beneficiary of increased Venezuelan supply.

For small-cap investors, Burry’s framework offers valuable lessons. His mention of PBF Energy and HF Sinclair demonstrates that opportunities exist throughout the market cap structure for companies with the right capabilities. His focus on oilfield services points to second-order effects many investors overlook while fixated on the obvious refining story. And his use of LEAPs shows how options strategies can create leveraged exposure to multi-year themes.

Several key themes emerge from Burry’s playbook. He identified a structural advantage that created long-term value regardless of short-term volatility. He took a multi-year view, holding through uncertainty when the thesis wasn’t working. He’s thinking beyond the obvious, considering services companies and smaller refiners alongside his flagship position. And he’s using options to potentially leverage conviction while managing downside.

The Venezuela oil story is just beginning, and meaningful recovery will take years. But Burry has never been deterred by uncertainty—he’s built his fortune by being right when conventional wisdom said he was wrong. His five-year bet is now in the spotlight, and for those willing to think in multi-year timeframes and look beyond the headlines, his framework offers a roadmap for finding similar asymmetric opportunities.

The Venezuela Oil Story Nobody’s Talking About: Small-Cap Opportunities

Posted on January 5, 2026January 5, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The weekend capture of Nicolás Maduro and President Trump’s subsequent pledge to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector sent shockwaves through oil markets on Monday. While headlines focused on the major players—Chevron surging 6.3%, ConocoPhillips and Exxon climbing, and oil-service giants like Halliburton, SLB, and Baker Hughes all jumping over 5%—savvy small-cap investors should be asking a different question: Where are the overlooked opportunities in this historic shift?

Venezuela sits atop the world’s largest crude reserves, yet years of corruption, underinvestment, and sanctions have decimated its infrastructure. Experts estimate a full revival could require upwards of $100 billion and take many years to complete. Trump’s commitment to having major US oil companies “spend billions of dollars” to fix the “badly broken infrastructure” represents one of the largest potential reconstruction efforts in the energy sector’s recent history. But here’s what the major media coverage misses: the oil majors can’t do this alone.

While Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips will undoubtedly lead the charge—with Chevron already producing roughly 20% of Venezuela’s current output—the sheer scale of reconstruction needed creates a massive opportunity ecosystem that extends far beyond the Fortune 500. The infrastructure damage is comprehensive. Fires, thefts, equipment failures, and decades of neglect have left refineries, pipelines, storage facilities, and drilling operations in tatters. Rebuilding this complex network will require specialized services, equipment manufacturers, logistics providers, and niche technical expertise that major oil companies typically outsource.

While Halliburton and SLB dominate headlines, smaller oilfield services companies with expertise in heavy crude production, well rehabilitation, and aging infrastructure repair could see significant contract opportunities. These nimbler firms often provide specialized services that complement—rather than compete with—the major service providers. The reconstruction will require massive quantities of pumps, valves, drilling equipment, and replacement parts. Small-cap manufacturers and distributors specializing in oil and gas equipment could see order books fill rapidly, particularly those with experience in heavy crude operations or refinery equipment.

Moving equipment, materials, and eventually crude oil will require expanded logistics capabilities. Small-cap shipping companies, port services providers, and specialized transportation firms operating in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean could benefit from increased traffic between US Gulf Coast refineries and Venezuelan facilities. Any major reconstruction effort will also require environmental remediation, safety consulting, and regulatory compliance services. Smaller firms specializing in industrial cleanup, environmental monitoring, and workplace safety for hazardous environments may find significant opportunities.

Venezuela produces heavy crude that’s particularly valuable to Gulf Coast refineries, which are specifically designed to process it. This geographic and operational connection means US-based small-cap companies serving the Gulf Coast refining complex are naturally positioned to extend their services southward. The interrelationship between US refining infrastructure and Venezuelan crude creates a natural expansion pathway for regional players.

Smart investors must acknowledge significant risks. The article notes uncertainty about whether global oil companies will commit substantial capital to a country run by a temporary US-backed government without established legal and fiscal frameworks. ConocoPhillips called speculation about future activities “premature,” and ExxonMobil’s CEO indicated the company would be “cautious” given past asset expropriations. For small-cap companies, these political and regulatory risks are magnified. Smaller firms have less capital cushion to absorb losses and less negotiating power in unstable environments. Any investment thesis predicated on Venezuelan reconstruction must account for potential delays, political volatility, and the possibility that the opportunity never fully materializes.

While Monday’s market action rewarded the obvious beneficiaries, patient small-cap investors should be conducting deeper research into companies positioned along the value chain of Venezuelan oil reconstruction. The opportunity is real—$100 billion doesn’t get spent without creating ripples throughout the entire industry ecosystem—but it will require careful analysis to separate companies with genuine exposure from those merely riding headline momentum. The Venezuelan energy revival may be a major-cap story on the surface, but the small-cap opportunities hiding beneath could prove equally compelling for investors willing to do the work.

Cardiff Oncology (CRDF) – Onvansertib Could Treat Colorectal Cancers That Escape Other Treatments

Posted on January 5, 2026January 5, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, January 05, 2026

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating Coverage With A $12 Price Target. Cardiff Oncology is developing onvansertib for the treatment of multiple cancer indications. Its lead program is in metastatic colorectal cancer for patients with a mutation that makes the cancer more aggressive and difficult to treat. This mutation, KRAS, is found in about 45% of the colorectal cancer patients. As a result of the mutation, several standard therapies are ineffective. We believe onvansertib’s unique mechanisms of action could be a breakthrough in cancer treatment.

Onvansertib Has Two Main Mechanisms of Action. Onvansertib inhibits PLK1, an intracellular protein needed for regulatory functions that control cell growth and division. This protein can be overexpressed in many cancers, including colorectal cancer, overriding the normal controls. A second mechanism stops a pathway that allows tumors to survive in low oxygen environments and resist treatment with bevacizumab (Avastin).

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Vince Holding Corp. (VNCE) – Emerging Growth Levers Provide Favorable 2026 View

Posted on January 5, 2026January 5, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Monday, January 05, 2026

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Execution inflection driven by digital and DTC momentum. 2025 marked a clear improvement in operating execution, led by stronger e-commerce performance, enhanced digital capabilities, and early traction from the dropship initiative, which collectively supported revenue growth and improved operating leverage.

Pricing power and profitability improved despite cost headwinds. The company demonstrated brand resilience through higher average selling prices, stable unit volumes, improved full-price sell-through, and disciplined cost management, allowing it to offset tariff and freight pressures and deliver meaningful adjusted EBITDA upside.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

BYD Surpasses Tesla to Become World’s Largest EV Maker

Posted on January 5, 2026January 5, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

BYD Co., the Chinese electric vehicle giant, has hit a major milestone, surpassing Tesla Inc. to claim the title of the world’s largest electric vehicle maker in 2025. The achievement comes amid a challenging backdrop for China’s auto market, with heightened domestic competition and shifting government incentives.

The Shenzhen-based company delivered a total of 4.6 million vehicles last year, representing a 7.7% increase from 2024, and meeting the full-year sales target it set in September. Nearly half of these vehicles—2.26 million—were fully electric, with the remainder comprising plug-in hybrid models. In contrast, Tesla’s full-year deliveries are projected to reach approximately 1.66 million vehicles, marking its second consecutive annual decline. The US automaker’s fourth-quarter shipments alone were down 11% from a year earlier.

BYD’s milestone was reflected in market performance, with its Hong Kong-listed shares rising as much as 2.3% on the first trading day of 2026. Despite this growth, the company faces significant pressure in the year ahead. China’s reduction of certain EV purchase incentives and an influx of new domestic models have intensified competition. Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp., among others, have launched new vehicles that are capturing consumer attention, making the domestic landscape more challenging.

Chief Executive Officer Wang Chuanfu acknowledged that BYD’s technological lead over competitors has narrowed, affecting domestic sales. However, he expressed confidence in the company’s 120,000-strong engineering team and hinted at upcoming breakthroughs that could help BYD regain an edge.

International markets have emerged as a bright spot for BYD. Overseas deliveries reached 1.05 million units in 2025, surpassing expectations and helping offset domestic softness. The company has set ambitious targets for 2026, aiming to sell between 1.5 million and 1.6 million vehicles outside China. Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley forecast that new product launches and a refreshed technology platform could further strengthen BYD’s global competitiveness.

Nevertheless, the company faces financial and regulatory hurdles. BYD posted back-to-back quarterly profit declines in 2025 and has been at the center of China’s efforts to curb aggressive EV discounting. This regulatory scrutiny may accelerate consolidation within the industry and reshape the competitive hierarchy.

Tesla, meanwhile, is grappling with its own set of challenges. Production line adjustments for the redesigned Model Y slowed early 2025 deliveries, while the US elimination of federal EV purchase incentives is expected to weigh on demand. Additionally, CEO Elon Musk’s controversial political profile has reportedly deterred some buyers, further complicating the company’s outlook.

Despite these headwinds, BYD appears poised to maintain its lead. Analyst estimates suggest total sales could reach 5.3 million units in 2026, allowing the company to solidify its position as the top global EV maker. With growing overseas momentum, strategic product launches, and continued investment in technology, BYD is not just overtaking Tesla—it is reshaping the global electric vehicle landscape.

Long-Maturity Treasuries Slide Into 2026 After Strong 2025 Gains

Posted on January 2, 2026January 2, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Long-maturity U.S. Treasuries opened 2026 on a cautious note, following the market’s most robust annual performance in five years. While last year saw substantial gains for government bonds, investors are now recalibrating as the potential for additional Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts raises concerns about inflation and fiscal sustainability.

The 30-year Treasury yield rose roughly two basis points to 4.87%, reflecting modest losses but signaling increased volatility after last year’s record gains. In contrast, shorter-dated Treasuries, which are more directly influenced by Fed policy, remained relatively stable or slightly lower. This divergence continues the trend observed in late 2025, when the Fed cut its target range by three quarter-point moves, leading short-term yields lower while long-term rates were supported by economic resilience and fiscal pressures.

Investor focus has shifted to how a potential new Fed leadership might approach monetary policy. Long-term bond yields face upward pressure not only from prospective rate cuts but also from the U.S. government’s challenging fiscal outlook and signs of continued economic strength. Data released late last year indicated the U.S. economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years, complicating the narrative that rate reductions alone would sustain low yields.

Market participants are also closely watching interest-rate derivatives. Recent trading shows heavy demand for options that protect against the federal funds rate dropping to 0% from its current 3.5% range, while swap contracts suggest a more moderate decline toward a 3% floor by year-end. These instruments highlight investor uncertainty over the Fed’s next moves and underline the tension between potential policy easing and persistent inflation, which remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

Despite these concerns, Treasuries continue to serve a strategic role for investors. Portfolio managers cite historically high stock valuations as a compelling reason to maintain exposure to government bonds, providing a hedge against market corrections. James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough Investment Management, notes that volatility is likely to return to bond markets as investors wrestle with the Fed’s evolving policy stance. This environment may produce short-term swings in long-term yields, even as the overall trend for bonds remains influenced by macroeconomic fundamentals.

Globally, bond markets are experiencing similar pressures. Germany’s 10-year yields climbed six basis points to 2.91%, while the UK’s 10-year yield rose five basis points to 4.53%. In Australia, 10-year bonds slumped as yields jumped eight basis points on speculation that rising commodity prices could accelerate growth and prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates. Meanwhile, January marks one of the busiest months for new corporate bond issuance, increasing competition for investor capital and adding another layer of pressure on Treasury prices.

Looking ahead, Treasuries are expected to remain a key tool for risk management, particularly for investors balancing exposure to equities and small caps. While the bond market’s exceptional 2025 performance sets a high bar, 2026 may bring more volatility and narrower returns, underscoring the importance of strategic positioning across maturities.

V2X (VVX) – A Strong End to 2025 Awards

Posted on January 2, 2026January 2, 2026 by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Friday, January 02, 2026

V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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DMEA ATSP. V2X subsidiary Vertex Aerospace has been named as an awardee to the Defense Microelectronics Activity (DMEA) Advanced Technology Support Program (ATSP), according to the daily Department of War contract award activity. With multi-billion dollar potential, this award caps a strong year for V2X. The Company has won places on multiple billion dollar contracts, which bode well for the future.

Details. DMEA ATSP is an ID/IQ contract with a $23.357 billion ceiling. This multiple award contract has a base ordering period of five years with two option periods, three years and two years respectively, to establish a 10 year ordering period. There are a total of 10 awardees, including Vertex. As an ID/IQ, Vertex will need to compete for each award, but we are confident the Company will receive its fair share of wins under the contract.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).