Pharma Shake-Up: Trump Threatens 200% Tariffs on Drug Imports

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday his intention to impose tariffs of up to 200% on imported pharmaceutical products, a move that could dramatically reshape the pharmaceutical landscape. While the tariffs would not go into effect immediately, the president indicated they could be implemented “very soon,” with a grace period of roughly a year to a year and a half for companies to adapt.

The proposed tariffs come as part of a broader economic strategy aimed at bolstering domestic manufacturing and reducing U.S. reliance on foreign pharmaceutical production. Trump has long criticized the pharmaceutical industry for outsourcing production, and this latest proposal aligns with his “America First” trade agenda. The administration believes steep tariffs would incentivize companies to bring more manufacturing operations back to the United States.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the final details of the pharmaceutical tariffs will be revealed by the end of July, following the conclusion of studies on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors currently under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act. This legal framework allows the administration to impose trade barriers on national security grounds—one of the same avenues used for previous tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Pharmaceutical companies and industry groups reacted swiftly to the announcement. Major firms, including Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie, have warned that such a move could lead to unintended consequences. Critics argue the tariffs would raise the cost of essential medicines, disrupt global supply chains, and potentially limit access to critical drugs for patients.

Industry leaders have also expressed concern that the new tariffs could stifle innovation by diverting funds away from research and development. The pharmaceutical sector is already under pressure from other regulatory changes related to drug pricing and reimbursement models. Adding steep tariffs into the mix, they argue, could further destabilize long-term investment in life-saving therapies.

Despite these concerns, Trump maintains that the threat of tariffs is a powerful lever to revive American manufacturing. While some large pharmaceutical companies have increased domestic investment in recent years, U.S.-based drug production still represents only a fraction of global output. Trump’s administration believes that tough economic measures are necessary to reverse decades of offshoring.

Notably, pharmaceutical stocks remained relatively stable in the immediate aftermath of the announcement, reflecting skepticism among investors about whether the tariffs will ultimately materialize or reach the proposed 200% threshold. Trump has previously floated similar trade measures that were later scaled back or delayed.

Still, the mere possibility of such tariffs signals a growing willingness to use aggressive trade policy in sectors traditionally considered too sensitive or complex for broad economic intervention. The coming weeks will likely bring more clarity as the administration finalizes its review and industry stakeholders prepare for what could be a major policy shift.

If enacted, these tariffs would mark one of the most consequential moves in U.S. healthcare trade policy in decades—potentially reshaping supply chains, pricing, and the geopolitical landscape of pharmaceutical production.

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Strengthening Its Station Portfolio


Tuesday, July 08, 2025

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Compelling station swap. Scripps will be selling its stations in Lansing MI and Lafayette LA to Gray Television (GTN: Not Rated) and buying stations in Colorado Springs, CO and Grand Junction, CO and a station in Twin Falls ID. We view the move favorably, given that Scripps will create station duopolies and strengthen its presence in the West. We believe that the move will create significant efficiencies for both companies, eliminating back office, duplicative, and overhead costs. This will be an even swap with no cash compensation to either party. 

FCC fast track? The FCC has signaled its willingness to fast track the regulatory process, likely to provide a “waiver” to create duopolies rather than to seek a longer review/rulemaking process. As such, we believe that the transaction could be completed by year end. 


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Xcel Brands (XELB) – Seeking Fuel For Growth


Tuesday, July 08, 2025

Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Files S1. The company plans to sell 1.381 million shares on a “best efforts” basis and pre-funded warrants. Pre-funded warrants are exercisable at any time after the date of issuance and may be exercised at any time. Notably, management has indicated its interest in participating in the offering for up to 10% of the shares. Following the prospective sale, total shares outstanding would increase to 3.819 million shares. 

Use of proceeds. Based on the current stock price and assuming all shares are sold, management expects to generate roughly $1.9 million in net proceeds from the offering. The company plans to use the proceeds for working capital and general corporate purposes and toward a $50,000 principal loan payment to a company controlled by Robert D’Loren, the company’s Chairman and CEO. 


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Outlook Remains Favorable, Increasing 2025 Estimates


Tuesday, July 08, 2025

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We are increasing our 2025 adjusted EBITDA and EPU estimates to $676.5 million and $2.55, respectively, from $672.6 million and $2.52. We increased our crude oil and natural gas price estimates based on CME futures settlements, which had a positive impact on oil and gas royalty revenue. Our 2026 adjusted EBITDA and EPS estimates are unchanged at $678.3 million and $2.60, respectively. While management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower in 2026 due to higher-priced contracts rolling off, we think 2025 longwall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset the impact of lower prices.

Recent legislation expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Following several executive orders earlier in the year intended to support the coal industry and delay coal power plant retirements, the Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was signed into law on July 4 and is expected to benefit the fossil fuel industry. Among other things, the BBB phases out many of the clean energy tax credits established under the Inflation Reduction Act and creates a supportive environment for oil, gas, and coal production.


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Royal Gold to Acquire Sandstorm Gold and Horizon Copper, Creating a Global Streaming and Royalty Powerhouse

In a landmark move set to reshape the metals royalty landscape, Royal Gold Inc. announced it will acquire Sandstorm Gold Royalties and Horizon Copper in two separate transactions valued at over $3.7 billion. The acquisitions will create a large-scale, highly diversified precious metals streaming and royalty company poised to lead the industry in both scale and growth potential.

Under the agreement with Sandstorm Gold Ltd., Royal Gold will acquire all outstanding Sandstorm shares in an all-stock transaction worth approximately $3.5 billion. Sandstorm shareholders will receive 0.0625 shares of Royal Gold for each Sandstorm share, representing a 21% premium to Sandstorm’s 20-day volume-weighted average price. Once completed, Sandstorm shareholders will own roughly 23% of the combined company.

Concurrently, Royal Gold will acquire Horizon Copper Corp. in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $196 million. Horizon shareholders will receive C$2.00 per share—a substantial 85% premium to Horizon’s 20-day VWAP. These two deals are expected to close in the coming months, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals.

Strategic Synergies and Portfolio Expansion

The combined entity will emerge with a portfolio of 393 royalty and streaming assets, including 80 cash-flowing properties. Importantly, no single asset will represent more than 13% of the company’s net asset value, demonstrating a high level of diversification. Approximately 87% of the combined revenue will be derived from precious metals, with 75% from gold.

Notable producing assets include Mount Milligan in Canada, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, Cortez in Nevada, and Andacollo in Chile. These high-quality, long-life operations provide a stable foundation for future cash flows. Development assets like MARA, Hod Maden, and Platreef promise significant organic growth.

Royal Gold expects to benefit from a strong balance sheet with minimal debt and robust free cash flow generation. The newly formed company will have the financial strength and scale to pursue additional growth opportunities, while enhancing its appeal to institutional investors.

Leadership Vision and Outlook

Sandstorm CEO Nolan Watson emphasized the strategic fit, highlighting that the merger delivers immediate value to shareholders while retaining exposure to future upside. He praised Sandstorm’s legacy of innovation and expressed confidence in Royal Gold’s ability to carry the torch forward.

Royal Gold CEO Bill Heissenbuttel echoed the sentiment, noting that the transactions align with the company’s long-standing strategy of disciplined growth in mining-friendly jurisdictions. He described the merger as a transformative step that creates an unmatched global portfolio of high-quality, long-life precious metal assets.

With enhanced scale, improved trading liquidity, and a proven track record of shareholder returns, the newly combined Royal Gold is expected to achieve a premium valuation and expanded market reach. Positioned as a top-tier vehicle for gold exposure in the U.S. marketplace, it is set to become a cornerstone in many institutional and retail investment portfolios.

Investors and analysts alike will be watching closely as this new chapter unfolds, marking a pivotal moment in the evolution of the royalty and streaming sector.

Middle Markets Brace for Impact as Trump’s Tariff Expansion Rattles Markets

Middle market companies across manufacturing, retail, and technology sectors are scrambling to assess potential impacts after President Trump’s Monday announcement of 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean imports, set to take effect August 1st. The move sent shockwaves through equity markets, with major indices posting their worst single-day performance in weeks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 400 points, closing down 1.21%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite shed 0.98% and 1.03% respectively. For middle market investors, the selloff signals deeper concerns about how expanding trade tensions could reshape global supply chains and corporate profitability.

Middle market manufacturers with exposure to Japanese and South Korean suppliers face immediate headwinds. Companies in automotive parts, electronics components, and industrial machinery sectors are particularly vulnerable, as these industries rely heavily on specialized inputs from both countries.

Japan remains a critical supplier of precision machinery and automotive components, while South Korea dominates in semiconductors, displays, and advanced materials. The proposed 25% levy could force companies to either absorb significant cost increases or pass them to consumers, potentially crimping demand.

Trump’s escalation extends beyond Asia, with threatened tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from South Africa, Malaysia, and other nations. The President’s additional 10% levy on countries aligned with BRICS policies adds another layer of complexity for companies with emerging market exposure.

The timing proves particularly challenging as many middle market firms are still recovering from previous trade disruptions. Companies that invested heavily in supply chain diversification following earlier tariff rounds now face the prospect of further reorganization.

Technology-focused middle market companies face dual pressures from both component cost increases and potential retaliation affecting export opportunities. Manufacturing firms with just-in-time inventory systems may need to accelerate stockpiling, tying up working capital.

Retail-oriented middle market companies importing consumer goods from targeted countries could see margin compression if they cannot pass costs to price-sensitive customers. The uncertainty also complicates inventory planning and pricing strategies heading into the crucial back-to-school and holiday seasons.

Despite the volatility, some middle market investors see potential opportunities emerging. Companies with domestic supply chains or those positioned to benefit from supply chain reshoring could gain competitive advantages. Additionally, firms with strong balance sheets may find acquisition opportunities as smaller competitors struggle with increased costs.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s indication of potential deals in coming days provides some hope for resolution, though markets remain skeptical given the administration’s aggressive timeline. The focus on 18 major trading partners before expanding to over 100 countries suggests a systematic approach, but also highlights the scope of potential disruption.

With earnings season approaching, middle market companies will face intense scrutiny on guidance and cost management strategies. Thursday’s Delta Air Lines report kicks off what many analysts expect to be a challenging quarter for companies with significant international exposure.

The key question for middle market investors remains whether current valuations adequately reflect the potential for prolonged trade tensions. As markets digest the implications of Trump’s latest tariff expansion, portfolio positioning and risk management become increasingly critical for navigating the uncertain landscape ahead.

Trump Escalates Trade War: 25% Tariffs Hit Japan and South Korea

President Trump dramatically escalated his global trade offensive Monday, announcing 25% tariffs on imports from Japan and South Korea while threatening even higher duties on nations aligning with BRICS policies he deems “anti-American.” The move marks a significant expansion of the administration’s protectionist agenda beyond traditional targets like China.

The President posted formal notification letters to both Asian allies on social media, declaring the tariffs would take effect August 1. The announcement caught markets and diplomatic circles off guard, as both Japan and South Korea have been key U.S. allies for decades and major trading partners in critical technology sectors.

Trump’s tariff strategy appears designed to leverage economic pressure for broader geopolitical objectives. In his letter to Japanese Prime Minister, Trump offered a clear carrot-and-stick approach: “There will be no Tariff if Japan, or companies within your Country, decide to build or manufacture product within the United States.”

The administration promises expedited approvals for companies willing to relocate manufacturing operations to American soil, potentially completing the process “in a matter of weeks” rather than the typical months or years required for major industrial projects.

This represents a significant shift from traditional trade diplomacy, using tariff threats as direct incentives for foreign investment and manufacturing relocation. The approach mirrors tactics used successfully with several other trading partners, where the threat of punitive duties has led to increased American manufacturing commitments.

Perhaps most concerning for global trade stability, Trump explicitly warned both countries that any retaliatory tariffs would be met with equivalent increases in U.S. duties. This tit-for-tat escalation mechanism could quickly spiral into a destructive trade war with America’s closest Pacific allies.

The President cited “long-term, and very persistent” trade deficits as justification for restructuring these relationships. Japan previously faced 24% tariffs in April before a temporary pause, while South Korea had been subject to 25% rates, suggesting the administration views these levels as baseline positions rather than maximum penalties.

The tariff announcements represent just the latest moves in Trump’s comprehensive trade realignment strategy. The administration has been systematically addressing trade relationships across multiple continents, with varying degrees of success and diplomatic tension.

Recent developments elsewhere show the mixed results of this approach. China has seen some easing of tensions, with the U.S. relaxing export restrictions on chip design software and ethane following framework agreements toward a broader trade deal. Vietnam reached accommodation with a 20% tariff rate—substantially lower than the 46% originally threatened—though facing 40% duties on transshipped goods.

The European Union has signaled willingness to accept 10% universal tariffs while seeking sector-specific exemptions, indicating established trading blocs are adapting to the new reality rather than engaging in prolonged resistance.

The targeting of Japan and South Korea creates particular challenges given their roles as critical technology suppliers and security partners. Both nations are integral to global semiconductor supply chains, with South Korean companies like Samsung and SK Hynix playing essential roles in memory chip production, while Japanese firms dominate specialized manufacturing equipment and materials.

The timing appears strategic, occurring as the administration faces domestic pressure to demonstrate progress on trade deficit reduction while maintaining leverage in ongoing negotiations with other partners. The threat of duties reaching as high as 70% on some goods creates enormous uncertainty for businesses planning international supply chain strategies.

Canada’s recent decision to scrap its digital services tax affecting U.S. technology companies demonstrates how the tariff threat environment is reshaping international policy decisions. The White House indicated trade talks with Canada have resumed, targeting a mid-July agreement deadline.

This pattern suggests the administration’s approach of combining immediate tariff threats with longer-term negotiation windows may be yielding results in some cases, even as it strains traditional alliance relationships.

As more notification letters are expected today, global markets are bracing for additional announcements that could further reshape international trade relationships and supply chain strategies worldwide.

Nvidia Shatters Records: AI Giant Becomes World’s Most Valuable Company

In a stunning display of market dominance, Nvidia has officially entered uncharted territory by achieving a market capitalization of $3.92 trillion, surpassing Apple’s previous record and establishing itself as the most valuable company in corporate history.

The semiconductor giant’s shares surged as much as 2.4% to $160.98 during Thursday morning trading, propelling the company beyond Apple’s historic closing value of $3.915 trillion set on December 26, 2024. This milestone represents far more than a simple changing of the guard—it signals a fundamental shift in how markets value artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Nvidia’s ascent to unprecedented valuation levels reflects Wall Street’s unwavering confidence in the artificial intelligence revolution. The company’s specialized chips have become the essential building blocks for training the world’s most sophisticated AI models, creating what industry experts describe as “insatiable demand” for Nvidia’s high-end processors.

The magnitude of Nvidia’s valuation becomes even more striking when placed in global context. The company is now worth more than the combined value of all publicly listed companies in Canada and Mexico. It also exceeds the total market capitalization of the entire United Kingdom stock market, underscoring the extraordinary concentration of value in AI-related assets.

The transformation of Nvidia from a specialized gaming hardware company to Wall Street’s AI bellwether represents one of the most remarkable corporate evolution stories in modern business history. Co-founded in 1993 by CEO Jensen Huang, the Santa Clara-based company has seen its market value increase nearly eight-fold over the past four years, rising from $500 billion in 2021 to approaching $4 trillion today.

This meteoric rise has been fueled by an unprecedented corporate arms race, with technology giants Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Tesla competing to build expansive AI data centers. Each of these companies relies heavily on Nvidia’s cutting-edge processors to power their artificial intelligence ambitions, creating a virtuous cycle of demand for the chipmaker’s products.

Despite its record-breaking market capitalization, Nvidia’s valuation metrics suggest the rally may have room to run. The stock currently trades at approximately 32 times analysts’ expected earnings for the next 12 months—well below its five-year average of 41 times forward earnings. This relatively modest price-to-earnings ratio reflects the company’s rapidly expanding profit margins and consistently upward-revised earnings estimates.

The company’s remarkable recovery trajectory becomes evident when examining its recent performance. Nvidia’s stock has rebounded more than 68% from its April 4 closing low, when global markets were rattled by President Trump’s tariff announcements. The subsequent recovery has been driven by expectations that the White House will negotiate trade agreements to mitigate the impact of proposed tariffs on technology companies.

Nvidia’s dominance hasn’t gone unchallenged. Earlier this year, Chinese startup DeepSeek triggered a global equity selloff by demonstrating that high-performance AI models could be developed using less expensive hardware. This development sparked concerns that companies might reduce their spending on premium processors, temporarily dampening enthusiasm for Nvidia’s growth prospects.

However, the company’s ability to maintain its technological edge has kept it at the forefront of AI hardware innovation. Nvidia’s newest chip designs continue to demonstrate superior performance in training large-scale artificial intelligence models, reinforcing its position as the preferred supplier for major technology companies.

Nvidia now carries a weight of nearly 7.4% in the benchmark S&P 500, making it a significant driver of broader market performance. The company’s inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average last November, replacing Intel, symbolized the semiconductor industry’s strategic pivot toward AI-focused development.

As Nvidia approaches the $4 trillion threshold, its unprecedented valuation serves as a barometer for investor confidence in artificial intelligence’s transformative potential across industries.

Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – A Debt Refi


Thursday, July 03, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Refi. Commercial Vehicle Group successfully refinanced its debt, extending the maturity out to 2030 from 2027. We believe this should provide the Company with additional financial flexibility as management continues to drive further operational efficiency.

Details. The Company went from an $85 million term loan to a $95 million term loan and from a $125 million ABL to a $115 million ABL. Proceeds were used to repay $120.1 million outstanding under the previous facility. The initial interest rate on the term loan is 9.75%, although future rates will have a tiered interest cost based on the consolidated leverage ratio. The initial ABL rate is SOFR plus 1.75%.


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MariMed Inc (MRMD) – Rec Sales to Begin in Delaware


Thursday, July 03, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Recreational Cannabis. After legislation approving recreational cannabis in April 2023, Delaware will finally commence sales of recreational cannabis on August 1st of this year. Legal recreational cannabis can be purchased in the 13 existing medical dispensaries as well as through the 30 recreational licenses the state has approved. We expect sales to be derived not only from the state population, many of whom currently travel to existing legal states such as Maryland and New Jersey to obtain the product, but also from the estimated 30 million tourists that visit the state annually.

Delaware Market. Delaware has had a medical market for a while. The market is estimated to be approximately $50 million in size, with flattish growth to 2029 when the medical is projected to rise to $55 million. The recreational cannabis market could grow to the $250-$300 million level, according to various government projections.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) – Diners Seeking “Uniqueness and Entertainment”


Thursday, July 03, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Diner Views. Today’s diners are seeking out venues that prioritize entertainment and uniqueness, according to a Yelp survey that analyzed consumer web searches from January to March. The Yelp findings are in-line with recent research by hospitality management platform SevenRooms. According to SevenRooms’ 2025 U.S. Restaurant Industry Trends, consumers who dine out value unique experiences, even at a premium, with 74% of consumers returning to a restaurant after a unique experience.

A Vibe Dining Leader. As a leader in Vibe Dining, ONE Hospitality is well positioned to capitalize on this trend through its portfolio of concepts, including chains STK, Benihana, Kona Grill, and RA Sushi, as well as the Salt Water Social and Samurai concepts. These upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges provide entertainment and unique experiences for diners, as well as one-of-a-kind, celebratory experiences that bring customers back.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Government Solutions Industry Report: CXW and GEO Poised to Benefit from Big Beautiful Bill

Thursday, June 3, 2025

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Big Beautiful Bill. The Senate version of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” aligns with or even improves upon the House version when it comes to spending on immigration. While it remains to be seen the exact version that will come out of the reconciliation process and be sent to President Trump for his signature, the proposed versions should prove to be beneficial to both CoreCivic and The GEO Group.

Detention Budget. Both the Senate and House proposals call for $45 billion of funding for detention capacity or an additional $10.6 billion annually through fiscal 2029. This would represent an over 300% increase over the current detention budget. This level of funding could support detention bed capacity in excess of 115,000 beds, up from a current 41,500.

Research reports on companies mentioned in this report are available by clicking below:

CoreCivic (CXW)

The GEO Group (GEO)


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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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Labor Market Whiplash: Private Payrolls Contract Despite Strong Job Openings

Just 24 hours after data showed job openings surging to their highest level since November 2024, the American labor market delivered a jarring reality check. Private sector employment unexpectedly contracted by 33,000 positions in June, according to ADP’s Wednesday report—marking the first monthly decline since March 2023 and painting a starkly different picture of employment dynamics.

The contradiction between Tuesday’s robust job openings data (7.76 million available positions) and Wednesday’s payroll contraction illustrates the complexity of today’s labor market, where demand for workers remains strong but actual hiring has stalled dramatically.

ADP’s report revealed a troubling disconnect between employer intentions and actions. While May data showed companies posting abundant job openings, June hiring patterns suggest businesses are increasingly reluctant to pull the trigger on new hires. The 33,000 job loss significantly missed economist expectations for 100,000 new positions, representing a stunning 133,000-job swing from forecasts.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” explained Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. This phenomenon—where companies maintain job postings but delay actual hiring decisions—reflects growing business uncertainty about economic conditions.

The May revision further underscored this trend, with private payroll gains reduced to just 29,000 from an initially reported 37,000, highlighting how even modest job growth has been weaker than initially perceived.

Service Sector Bears the Brunt

The June contraction was concentrated in service industries, with professional and business services shedding 56,000 positions and health and education losing 52,000 jobs. Financial services added to the decline with 14,000 fewer positions. These sectors, which typically drive white-collar employment growth, appear to be exercising extreme caution in their hiring strategies.

However, goods-producing industries provided some offset, adding 32,000 positions across manufacturing and mining operations. This divergence suggests that while consumer-facing and office-based businesses are pulling back, industrial sectors continue to see steady demand.

Geographically, the Midwest and West experienced the steepest declines, losing 24,000 and 20,000 jobs respectively, while the South managed modest growth of 13,000 positions. The Northeast saw minimal contraction of 3,000 roles.

The data revealed a striking pattern based on company size. Large employers with over 500 employees actually expanded payrolls by 30,000 positions, suggesting that well-capitalized companies continue to invest in talent acquisition. Conversely, small businesses with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 29,000 lost positions, indicating that smaller enterprises are bearing the brunt of economic uncertainty.

This divergence reflects different risk tolerances and financial capabilities, with smaller businesses typically more sensitive to economic headwinds and policy uncertainties.

Wage Growth Momentum Fades

Adding to concerns, annual wage growth decelerated for both job stayers and job switchers. Workers remaining in their positions saw pay increases of 4.4%, down from 4.5% in May, while those changing jobs experienced wage growth of 6.8%, declining from 7.0%. This moderation in wage pressures could provide some relief for inflation-conscious Federal Reserve officials but signals weakening worker bargaining power.

The stark contradiction between job openings and actual hiring creates a challenging environment for Federal Reserve policymakers already under pressure from the Trump administration to cut interest rates. While Tuesday’s job opening surge suggested labor market strength, Wednesday’s payroll contraction reinforces concerns about economic momentum.

Financial markets will closely watch Thursday’s official Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, which economists expect to show 110,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment rising to 4.3%. If the government data confirms ADP’s weak showing, it could significantly strengthen the case for monetary easing.

The divergent signals—strong job demand but weak hiring execution—suggest an economy in transition, where businesses remain optimistic enough to post openings but cautious enough to delay actual hiring decisions. This hesitancy may reflect concerns about tariff impacts, regulatory changes, or broader economic uncertainty.

For investors and policymakers alike, the labor market’s mixed messages underscore the importance of looking beyond headline numbers to understand the underlying dynamics driving employment trends in an increasingly complex economic environment.