Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Third quarter estimate update. We have trimmed our third-quarter revenue and net income estimates to C$21.6 million and C$6.9 million, respectively, from C$23.5 million and C$7.5 million. Additionally, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) and AFF per share estimates to C$10.0 million and C$0.10, respectively, from C$10.7 million and C$0.11.
Full-year estimate changes. For the full year 2025, we project revenues and net income of C$93.7 million and C$27.4 million, respectively, compared to our previous estimates of C$97.7 million and C$29.6 million. Moreover, we have lowered our AFF and AFF per share estimates to C$41.0 million and C$0.41, respectively, from C$43.3 million and C$0.43.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company discovering and developing novel antiviral therapeutics that target the replication process of influenza viruses, coronaviruses (including SARS-CoV-2), hepatitis C viruses and noroviruses. Cocrystal employs unique structure-based technologies and Nobel Prize-winning expertise to create first- and best-in-class antiviral drugs. For further information about Cocrystal, please visit www.cocrystalpharma.com.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Proprietary Technology & Drug Design. James Martin, Chief Financial Officer and Co-CEO, participated in Noble’s Virtual Emerging Growth Conference on October 8th & 9th. The discussion focused on the company’s core technology to design antiviral compounds that bind to highly conserved, essential areas of the viral replication machinery, as well as progress updates on the product pipeline.The full video may be viewed here.
Lead Program & Near-Term Catalyst In Norovirus. The company’s most advanced program is CDI-988, an oral drug for norovirus. This lead indication was chosen strategically because there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics for norovirus. The market is significant, with a stated $60 billion annual market opportunity.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Gold and Bitcoin, two assets long seen as safe havens in times of economic uncertainty, suffered steep declines this week, signaling a setback for the so-called “debasement trade.” On Wednesday, gold futures dropped more than five percent—the steepest single-day fall in over a decade—and extended losses by another one percent to around $4,060 per troy ounce. Bitcoin mirrored this weakness, plunging over three percent to trade just above $108,000 after staging a short-lived rebound earlier in the week.
The “debasement trade” refers to a strategy in which investors move money out of fiat currencies and government bonds and into “hard assets” such as gold, silver, and digital currencies. The concept hinges on fears that excessive fiscal spending, rising global debt, and accommodative central bank policies will erode the long-term purchasing power of major currencies—analogous to historic “debasement” when rulers diluted precious-metal coins to stretch resources. Essentially, it reflects investors’ desire to preserve value amid the perception that monetary and fiscal policy are inflating away real wealth.
For much of 2025, this trade propelled gold and Bitcoin to record highs as investors sought shelter from currency risk and persistent inflation. Gold rose over 65% year-to-date before this week’s sharp pullback, its rally supported by central bank buying and investor skepticism over government debt levels. Bitcoin, which climbed about 15% in the same period, benefited from similar narratives linking decentralized assets to long-term protection from currency erosion.
This week’s reversal, however, underscores shifting market sentiment. A stronger U.S. dollar, stabilizing geopolitical conditions, and profit-taking from heavily leveraged positions triggered a broad liquidation across both asset classes. The retreat in gold prices also weighed on mining equities and exchange-traded funds, signaling that speculative capital had overextended itself following months of relentless inflows.
Despite the sell-off, some strategists maintain that the underlying argument for the debasement trade endures. Inflation remains elevated, and major economies—including the United States and members of the eurozone—continue to operate under large fiscal deficits. These structural conditions sustain long-term concerns over fiat currency stability, though near-term volatility may temper enthusiasm. Analysts expect gold to find support in the $3,900–$4,000 range, while Bitcoin’s next key psychological level remains near $100,000.
What distinguishes this moment is the synchronized correction across both traditional and digital safe-haven assets. Their decline highlights the limitations of purely inflation-hedge strategies in an environment where tighter liquidity and the resurgence of the dollar can erase months of speculative gains almost overnight.
While the “debasement trade” is far from over, its stumble this week serves as a reminder that no hedge is immune to sentiment swings in global markets. In the evolving battle between inflation anxiety and monetary tightening, investors are being forced to reassess what truly qualifies as a reliable store of value in the modern economy.
On October 22, 2025, Alkermes plc (Nasdaq: ALKS) and Avadel Pharmaceuticals plc (Nasdaq: AVDL) announced a definitive merger agreement reflecting a major shift in the sleep medicine sector and the broader biopharmaceutical industry. The all-cash transaction, valued at up to $20 per Avadel share, comprises an $18.50 cash payment plus a contingent value right (CVR) for an additional $1.50 per share linked to final FDA approval of LUMRYZ™ for idiopathic hypersomnia. This structure represents a transaction value of approximately $2.1 billion and a 38% premium to Avadel’s three-month average share price, indicating strong confidence in Avadel’s commercial prospects.
The acquisition marks Alkermes’ strategic expansion into the sleep medicine market—a key area of growth for the company. With this move, Alkermes augments its existing neuroscience and rare disease franchise by adding Avadel’s FDA-approved LUMRYZ™ (sodium oxybate), a once-at-bedtime treatment for cataplexy or excessive daytime sleepiness in narcoleptic patients aged seven and older. LUMRYZ™ distinguishes itself as the market’s only once-nightly oxybate, offering significant convenience and competitive advantage over the twice-nightly alternative. Since its 2023 launch, LUMRYZ™ has experienced rapid adoption, with over 3,100 patients on therapy as of June 2025 and new patient starts outpacing competitors more than two-to-one. Net revenues are projected between $265–275 million for 2025, backed by a U.S. narcolepsy market of over 50,000 eligible patients.
Alkermes’ acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to earnings and profit margins, providing the scale and financial strength to accelerate both commercial and clinical development programs. For Alkermes, the deal offers a robust foundation to support its late-stage developmental pipeline, specifically its orexin 2 receptor agonist candidates—alixorexton, ALKS 4510 and ALKS 7290—for narcolepsy and idiopathic hypersomnia. The combined company harnesses both organizations’ commercial expertise and operational infrastructure, streamlining R&D and driving cost synergies.
Leadership at both Alkermes and Avadel have expressed optimism about the transaction. Alkermes’ CEO Richard Pops described the acquisition as “a pivotal step” in the company’s evolution—a move that bolsters Alkermes’ entry into sleep medicine as it prepares to advance alixorexton into phase 3 trials. Avadel’s CEO, Greg Divis, characterized the merger as a validation of Avadel’s strategy, highlighting the differentiated value of LUMRYZ™ and the company’s dedication to sleep disorder patients.
Under the transaction’s terms, Alkermes will fund the acquisition with cash on hand and new debt, subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. Both boards have unanimously approved the deal, targeting a closing date in the first quarter of 2026. Financial and legal advising teams include J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Paul Weiss, and Cleary Gottlieb.
With this acquisition, Alkermes solidifies its position as a leader in neurological and sleep disorder treatments, accelerating the pace of innovation in a space with significant unmet patient needs. The combined organization is set to pursue further label expansions for LUMRYZ™, bring new therapies to market, and deliver increased value to shareholders and patients alike.
The landmark agreement between Alkermes and Avadel Pharmaceuticals underscores the accelerating consolidation trend within the life sciences sector, where innovative therapies and commercial scale are driving strategic acquisitions. The addition of LUMRYZ™ to Alkermes’ portfolio not only diversifies its product base but strengthens its market position in a segment characterized by high unmet medical need and strong growth potential.
Alkermes’ entry into the sleep medicine market will leverage Avadel’s proven commercial infrastructure and rare disease expertise, enabling more efficient launches and access for future products. The transaction also sets the stage for Alkermes to explore global expansion opportunities for LUMRYZ™ and other pipeline assets, while supporting additional indications such as idiopathic hypersomnia and leveraging Avadel’s salt-free, once-at-bedtime oxybate candidate.
As the two organizations integrate, operational synergies are expected to improve profitability and streamline R&D processes for advancing both existing therapies and new clinical programs. The merger, backed by reputable financial advisors and committed financing, represents a pivotal moment for stakeholders, positioning Alkermes as an emerging leader in neurology and sleep disorder therapeutics with a stronger foundation for future innovation and patient impact.
The evolving relationship between the Trump administration and major pharmaceutical giants like Pfizer and Eli Lilly is reshaping the U.S. biotech and pharmaceutical sectors in unexpected ways. As President Trump’s approach to drug pricing and distribution intensifies, investors are watching closely to see whether these changes will threaten Big Pharma’s profit margins—or set the stage for a new era of growth for smaller, more innovative companies.
One of the most notable policy shifts has been the Trump administration’s overt encouragement—or at least acceptance—of large pharmaceutical firms selling directly to consumers. This “TrumpRx” strategy is a radical departure from the conventional system involving intermediaries and pharmacy benefit managers. On one hand, such a model could potentially drive efficiency and lower costs for some patients. On the other hand, it stirs up considerable uncertainty about how much profit large firms like Pfizer and Eli Lilly can preserve in an environment where pricing pressure and regulatory scrutiny are rising.
For investors focused on the biotech sector, the uncertain impact on Big Pharma profits is neither an all-out negative nor a clear positive. Recent developments, including public negotiations between the Trump administration and pharmaceutical leaders, have left markets feeling neutral in their outlook. There’s a sense that the sector may finally be heading into a period of relative stability after years of headlines about aggressive price controls and disruptive policy threats.
But questions linger: If legislative and regulatory changes ultimately compress profit margins for giants like Pfizer and Eli Lilly, how much will these incumbents be willing to invest in breakthrough innovation? Big Pharma’s research budgets have long been a cornerstone of biotech progress, underwriting everything from gene therapies to next-generation cancer drugs. If these resources dwindle, will smaller players have to pick up the slack—or could this shift clear the runway for young, ambitious biotech companies to rise?
Some analysts argue that a direct-to-consumer environment and tighter financial discipline for industry leaders could empower small and mid-cap biotech firms. Unlike their larger rivals, these companies are often leaner, faster-moving, and more reliant on outside partnerships and licensing deals to bring new therapies to market. With Big Pharma potentially becoming more selective in its investments, nimble startups may find themselves with new opportunities to innovate, collaborate, and even become acquisition targets.
Ultimately, the Trump administration’s evolving stance toward pharmaceutical profits and the direct selling model may serve as a stabilizing force in the sector—at least in the short term. Investors will need to monitor how major policy decisions translate to bottom-line impacts, R&D spending, and future innovation. While uncertainty remains, the potential for small-cap biotech firms to thrive in the coming years has rarely looked more compelling. For patient investors, this environment could prove fertile ground for discovering the next generation of biotech trailblazers.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Century produces high-purity lithium hydroxide. Century Lithium produced its first samples of lithium hydroxide from lithium carbonate derived from Angel Island’s lithium claystone deposit and treated at its demonstration plant using the company’s patent-pending alkaline leach and direct lithium extraction (DLE) process. Century had previously focused on making lithium carbonate. By producing high-purity lithium hydroxide, Century has demonstrated an ability to produce another major lithium product for the domestic market.
Pursuing a direct lithium conversion process. Lithium hydroxide samples were produced onsite in a batch process using conventional liming conversion with calcium hydroxide to produce lithium hydroxide with a purity level of 99.5% or greater. Century is pursuing a direct lithium conversion (DLC) process to produce lithium hydroxide directly from lithium chloride solution, which would bypass producing lithium carbonate in an intermediate stage to simplify the process and reduce energy consumption and operating costs.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Initiation. We are initiating equity research coverage on Twin Hospitality Group with an Outperform rating and $10 price target. Twin Hospitality is a franchisor and operator of two specialty casual dining restaurant concepts: Twin Peaks and Smokey Bones. The Company is a high-growth, asset light restaurant franchisor with a compelling franchisee value proposition, in our view. On January 29, 2025, parent company FAT Brands distributed approximately 5% of Twin Hospitality Class A shares to FAT Brands shareholders, bringing Twin Hospitality public.
A Premium Sports Bar Leader. Twin Hospitality currently operates approximately 115 Twin Peaks locations, consisting of 35 Company-owned and 80 franchised units. Twin Peaks offers a differentiated sports bar experience, from the lodge experience, to its signature 28-degree draft beer, a made-from-scratch menu, always-on wall-to-wall TVs, to the Twin Peaks Ambassadors, every customer receives an experience differentiated from the competition.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Graham Corporation designs, manufactures and sells critical equipment for the energy, defense and chemical/petrochemical industries. The Company designs and manufactures custom-engineered ejectors, vacuum pumping systems, surface condensers and vacuum systems. It is a nuclear code accredited fabrication and specialty machining company. It supplies components used inside reactor vessels and outside containment vessels of nuclear power facilities. Its equipment is found in applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceutical, heating, ventilating and air conditioning. For the defense industry, its equipment is used in nuclear propulsion power systems for the United States Navy. The Company’s products are used in a range of industrial process applications in energy markets, including petroleum refining, defense, chemical and petrochemical processing, power generation/alternative energy and other.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
An Acquisition. Yesterday, after the market close, Graham announced the acquisition of certain specified assets of Xdot Bearing Technologies (“Xdot”), a specialized consulting, design, and engineering firm focused on foil bearing technology. While the acquisition price was not revealed, Graham noted Xdot has annual sales of approximately $1 million and is expected to be slightly accretive to the Company’s fiscal year 2026 GAAP net income.
Xdot. Xdot has developed and patented a breakthrough foil bearing design that delivers superior performance while lowering development and production costs. Xdot’s products are complementary to the existing product portfolio of Graham’s Barber-Nichols (BN) subsidiary and will expand capabilities within BN. Notably, Dr. Erik Swanson, Founder, President, and Chief Engineer of Xdot is a world renowned expert in foil bearing analysis, application, and fabrication and will join the BN team upon closing.
Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Minerva Neurosciences (Nasdaq: NERV) has put itself firmly back in the spotlight, announcing one of the largest small-cap biotech financings of 2025. The Massachusetts-based clinical-stage company will receive up to $200 million to fund a confirmatory Phase 3 trial and commercial launch preparation for roluperidone, a promising therapy targeting the often-overlooked negative symptoms in schizophrenia patients. The initial $80 million arrives up front, with further tranches contingent on study milestones, offering NERV investors rare clinical and regulatory visibility at a critical inflection point.
This private placement, due to close October 23, includes $80 million upfront through Series A Convertible Preferred Stock and up to $80 million more if Tranche A warrants are fully exercised, plus a potential $40 million linked to subsequent milestone events. The offering is led by Vivo Capital with support from several prominent healthcare investors, suggesting the market sees real value in roluperidone’s regulatory progress.
But unlike many small caps, which struggle with dilutive equity raises or uncertain funding, Minerva’s staged, milestone-driven deal structure means investors can track clinical and regulatory progress directly to additional capital inflows. Warrants are only unlocked if the trial meets its statistically significant 12-week endpoint, keeping capital efficiently aligned to risk.
Minerva has achieved a notable alignment with the FDA on its confirmatory trial protocol for roluperidone, targeting negative symptoms—a significant unmet need in schizophrenia treatment. Negative symptoms, such as social withdrawal or loss of motivation, often persist even with current antipsychotics, representing a billion-dollar market where no competitor is FDA-approved. Minerva’s confirmatory Phase 3 design will use a randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled format, tracking the PANSS Marder negative symptoms factor score as a primary endpoint over 12 weeks.
This clarity on regulatory requirements and a defined path for NDA resubmission is crucial for investors, lowering typical clinical-stage risk and increasing confidence in eventual market entry. The company has committed resources for trial expansion and is already preparing for a U.S. commercial launch, signaling an advanced state of readiness pending approval.
In addition to the funding, Minerva plans to strengthen its board with up to three new directors experienced in schizophrenia trials, further supporting robust clinical execution. Investors will also appoint a Scientific Advisory Board dedicated to trial oversight, ensuring best practices and direct accountability to stakeholders.
With shares already up over 150% for the year, Minerva now stakes its future on one pivotal readout. For small cap-focused investors, NERV offers rare transparency on trial financing, regulatory alignment, and near-term commercial prospects—key ingredients for outsized returns but also heightened binary risk typical of biotech.
As Minerva initiates its confirmatory Phase 3 trial and prepares for NDA resubmission, sector watchers will track not just headline efficacy results, but also enrollment metrics, board appointments, and potential warrant triggers. For investors tolerant of volatility and seeking direct exposure to major clinical milestones, Minerva’s fully funded path towards solving negative symptoms in schizophrenia could prove a defining bet in the 2025 biotech landscape.
In a move with broad implications for the future of global supply chains and the defence technology sector, President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have signed a new agreement on critical minerals. This collaboration was unveiled at the White House on October 20, 2025, and establishes a formal partnership with a project pipeline that could reach $8.5 billion.
Though the White House described the agreement as a framework, officials in both countries confirmed immediate capital is forthcoming for key initiatives. Over the next six months alone, the agreement will facilitate joint investments of more than $3 billion, with Australia and the U.S. directly contributing at least $1 billion in the near term. Much of this funding will be deployed into advanced processing and mining projects focused on rare earths and other critical minerals essential for high-tech manufacturing and defence, including electric vehicles, robotics, and semiconductors.
The U.S. Export-Import Bank is prepared to offer at least $2.2 billion in letters of interest for project loans, which could unlock up to $5 billion in further investment. Alcoa and other major industrial players are already involved, with a particular emphasis on new rare earths separation facilities and a gallium refinery in Western Australia. The Pentagon is backing the gallium project, targeting a refinery output of 100 metric tons annually, a move that will significantly enhance non-Chinese supply for this vital semiconductor and electronics material.
This agreement comes as the global race to secure critical minerals intensifies. China continues to dominate rare earth processing and recently implemented strict export controls, escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and its allies. The new U.S.–Australia framework marks a decisive shift away from Chinese supply chain dependence and signals a new era of industrial cooperation between Western allies.
The market outlook is robust: rare earths and related minerals are used in everything from precision-guided missile systems to wind turbines and next-generation batteries. With rising geopolitical risk and acute supply chain vulnerabilities exposed, government-backed efforts like this one are set to redefine project financing and resource development models. The pipeline also includes a three-country venture involving the U.S., Australia, and Japan, integrating expertise and industrial capacity across the Pacific.
From the investor’s perspective, the partnership is about more than near-term capital flows. It reflects a “friend-shoring” philosophy, rerouting core inputs for modern industrial economies through trusted democratic partners. This is expected to benefit not only major participants like Alcoa but also small and micro-cap mining companies able to secure public or strategic backing for projects in Australia and allied regions. With the right execution, these upstream investments could set the stage for renewed growth and improved supply security throughout the clean energy and technology sectors
HBT Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: HBT) announced a definitive agreement to acquire CNB Bank Shares, Inc. (OTC: CNBN) in a cash-and-stock deal valued at roughly $170.2 million, marking a significant strategic expansion in the community banking space. The transaction reflects HBT’s disciplined growth model and highlights continued consolidation among Midwest-based financial institutions.
The merger, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, will create a combined company with about $6.9 billion in total assets, $4.7 billion in loans, and $5.9 billion in deposits. Post-closing, the new banking entity will operate 84 branches throughout Illinois, eastern Iowa, and Missouri—furthering HBT’s regional diversification across key metropolitan markets, including Chicago and St. Louis.
Transaction Structure and Valuation
Under the terms of the agreement, CNBN shareholders can elect to receive 1.0434 shares of HBT stock, $27.73 in cash per share, or a mix of both, subject to allocation limits. Based on HBT’s 15-day volume weighted average price of $24.44 as of October 17, 2025, the transaction equates to an implied purchase price of $25.92 per CNBN share. Upon completion, former CNBN shareholders will collectively own roughly 15% of HBT’s outstanding common stock.
The deal’s all-in valuation represents a prudent premium relative to CNBN’s recent trading levels while allowing HBT to fund the acquisition through a balanced consideration structure. The merger’s financial terms suggest a price-to-tangible book ratio in the 1.45x–1.55x range, consistent with recent peer transactions in the community banking sector.
Strategic Rationale and Market Outlook
For HBT, the acquisition deepens its deposit base in central Illinois and expands its reach into higher-growth urban corridors. It also enhances scale—both economically and operationally—adding efficiency to product distribution and technology deployment. CNB’s strong commercial loan portfolio and stable funding mix are expected to complement HBT’s disciplined credit culture, supporting accretive earnings growth post-integration.
Management expects the transaction to be additive to HBT’s earnings per share within the first full year after closing, with modest tangible book value dilution that can be earned back within a reasonable timeframe. The company’s strong capital position and consistent profitability metrics provide flexibility to absorb integration costs and offset potential short-term pressures.
On CNBN’s side, the merger offers shareholders liquidity through the NASDAQ-listed HBT stock and participation in a larger, more diversified Midwestern franchise. The combination should also benefit CNB’s customers through expanded product offerings and access to broader operational resources.
Leadership and Governance
To maintain local continuity, HBT has agreed to appoint CNBN directors James T. Ashworth and Nancy Ruyle to the boards of HBT Financial and Heartland Bank and Trust Company. The alignment of leadership under HBT’s community-first philosophy is expected to ease cultural integration—a critical factor in regional bank mergers.
Bottom Line
HBT’s acquisition of CNB Bank Shares continues its steady M&A track record, marking its eleventh transaction since 2007. By combining two relationship-focused institutions with complementary footprints, the deal strengthens HBT’s positioning in an increasingly competitive small and mid-cap financial landscape. For investors, it reinforces HBT’s strategy of measured expansion and capital discipline, positioning the company for sustainable earnings growth across Midwest markets.
Novo Nordisk is making another bold move in the metabolic disease space with its latest agreement to acquire Akero Therapeutics for up to $5.2 billion, marking one of the year’s largest biotech takeovers. The deal strengthens Novo Nordisk’s expanding presence in liver and metabolic disorders, while delivering significant value to Akero’s shareholders.
Under the terms of the agreement announced Thursday, Akero investors will receive $54 per share in cash at closing, plus a contingent value right (CVR) worth up to an additional $6 per share. The CVR payment would be triggered upon full U.S. regulatory approval of Akero’s lead drug candidate, efruxifermin (EFX), for treating compensated cirrhosis due to metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) by June 2031.
The acquisition values Akero at roughly $4.7 billion upfront, representing a 42% premium to its pre-rumor share price earlier this year. If all conditions are met, the total value could reach $5.2 billion — a 57% premium compared to Akero’s May 2025 valuation.
For Novo Nordisk, the deal builds on its leadership in GLP-1–based therapies and signals a deepening commitment to addressing complex metabolic diseases. Akero’s EFX program, designed to treat MASH, a condition historically known as NASH (nonalcoholic steatohepatitis), complements Novo Nordisk’s existing pipeline of cardiometabolic treatments. EFX’s potential to reverse fibrosis and improve liver function positions it as a promising therapy for millions of patients with few available options.
MASH has become a growing global health concern, closely linked to obesity and type 2 diabetes—areas where Novo Nordisk already dominates through blockbuster drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy. Integrating Akero’s research could help the Danish pharmaceutical giant extend its reach beyond diabetes and into liver health, strengthening its competitive advantage as demand for metabolic therapies surges worldwide.
Industry analysts see the deal as part of a broader wave of consolidation among biotechs developing metabolic and inflammatory treatments. Major pharmaceutical companies are increasingly acquiring smaller firms with advanced-stage assets to accelerate innovation and diversify revenue streams.
Akero’s ongoing Phase 3 SYNCHRONY trials have shown encouraging signs that EFX can reduce fibrosis and resolve MASH, potentially transforming the standard of care. The company’s holistic approach — improving both liver health and cardiovascular risk factors — aligns well with Novo Nordisk’s long-term goal of offering comprehensive solutions for metabolic dysfunction.
Following the acquisition, Akero’s operations will be integrated into Novo Nordisk’s global research network, with plans to advance EFX through late-stage trials and prepare for commercial launch. The transaction, unanimously approved by Akero’s board, is expected to close by year-end pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.
Financial advisors for the deal include Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Securities, with Kirkland & Ellis LLP serving as legal counsel to Akero.
The acquisition underscores Novo Nordisk’s strategy to expand beyond diabetes and obesity treatments into adjacent metabolic diseases with large unmet medical needs. If EFX achieves approval and commercial success, the deal could mark a defining moment in the evolution of liver disease therapeutics—and another milestone in Novo Nordisk’s transformation into a powerhouse across metabolic health.
Resources Connection, Inc. provides agile consulting services in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers finance and accounting services, including process transformation and optimization, financial reporting and analysis, technical and operational accounting, merger and acquisition due diligence and integration, audit readiness, preparation and response, implementation of new accounting standards, and remediation support. It also provides information management services, such as program and project management, business and technology integration, data strategy, and business performance management. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory, strategic communications, and restructuring services; and corporate governance, risk, and compliance management services, such as contract and regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management, internal controls management, and operation and information technology (IT) audits. Further, it provides supply chain management services comprising strategy development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and materials management, supply chain planning and forecasting, and unique device identification compliance; and human capital services, including change management, organization development and effectiveness, compensation and incentive plan strategies, and optimization of human resources technology and operations. Additionally, the company offers legal and regulatory supporting services for commercial transactions, global compliance initiatives, law department operations, and law department business strategies and analytics. It also provides policyIQ, a proprietary cloud-based governance, risk, and compliance software application. The company was formerly known as RC Transaction Corp. and changed its name to Resources Connection, Inc. in August 2000. Resources Connection, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Beat. Resources Connection reported first quarter revenue, gross margin, and SG&A expenses better than expected, although the top line continued to decline y-o-y, as expected. RGP is engaging with clients on more consulting opportunities, which have higher bill rates, larger deal size, and often create more extension and cross selling. However, the macro environment remains unpredictable, which makes clients hesitant to begin new projects.
Details. 1Q26 revenue came in at $120.2 million, down from $136.9 million in 1Q25, but above the $120 million high-end of management’s guidance. Gross margin came in at 39.5%, a significant y-o-y improvement from 36.5% in 1Q25 and above the 36-37% guidance range. SG&A expense of $47.9 million improved from $48.9 million in 1Q25. RGP recorded a GAAP net loss of $2.4 million, or $0.07/sh, compared to a $5.7 million, or $0.17/sh, net loss, in 1Q25. Adjusted EPS was $0.03/sh versus breakeven last year.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
