phoffman@channelchek.com, Author at Channelchek

The Week Ahead – March Markets, Out Like a Lamb?

Posted on March 27, 2023March 27, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Much of the Noise this Week Could Be from Outside of US Markets?

The U.S. does not get a great deal of economic data to react to this week. But that usually means the focus shifts, and market participants grasp onto signs they may otherwise ignore. There are many inflation reports during the week. They are from outside of the U.S. economy until Friday morning. Global inflation, not just trading partners could impact other nations. This is because if one region raises its benchmark interest rate, others either follow or risk weakening its own native currency.

March German inflation will come late in the week, starting with Germany’s CPI on Thursday. This will be followed by France’s CPI on Friday, then the full Eurozone later Friday. February PCE data from the U.S. will also be posted on Friday. Australia will be posting its February CPI on Wednesday. Most reports are expected to show declines, with the reservation that much of the reduced increases are derived from lower fuel costs. This would suggest that economic forces raising prices are still largely at work.

Monday 3/27

• No pertinent Economic numbers are to be released

Tuesday 3/28

• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence, after two months of market surprising declines, the consumer confidence index is not expected to perk up in March, the consensus is instead a further decline in confidence to a consensus 101.0 versus February’s 102.9.

• 10:00 AM ET, Michael Barr, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve will give Testimony before the Michael Barr, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve will give Testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Watch here.

• 1:00 PM ET, Money Supply, since some banks have experienced difficulties with lower deposits, is becoming closely watch report once more. The prior month, money supply read 30.9 billion. The measure has two main components, M1 and M2. M1 is included in M2. M1, the more narrowly defined measure, consists of the most liquid forms of money, namely currency and checkable deposits. The non-M1 components of M2 are primarily household holdings of savings deposits, small time deposits, and retail money market mutual funds.

Wednesday 3/29

• 10:00 AM ET, Michael Barr will testify before the U.S. House Financial Services CommitteeThe Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report, provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.

• 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales during February are expected to rise 1.0 percent on top of January’s 8.1 percent elevation.

Thursday 3/30

• 8:30 AM ET, GDP’s third estimate for 4Q 2022 is expected to remain at 2.7 percent growth in the quarter’s second estimate. Personal consumption expenditures, at 1.4 percent growth in the second estimate, is also expected to remain unchanged.

• 4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet has received more attention since the beginning of quantitative tightening (Q.T.). The last report should an increase as a result of the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP).

Friday 3/31

• 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays is expected to have risen 0.3 percent in February with consumption expenditures expected to have increased 0.2 percent. In January there was a rise of 0.6 percent for income and 1.8 percent surge for consumption. Inflation readings for February are expected at monthly increases of 0.4 percent both overall and for the core (versus 0.6 percent increases for both in January) for annual rates of 5.1 and 4.7 percent (versus January’s respective rates of 5.4 and 4.7 percent).

• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment in late March is expected to be unchanged from the mid-month flash of 63.4.

What Else

We congratulate all the NCAA basketball teams that made the final four teams competing in the NCAA championships. This includes the Florida Atlantic University basketball team that has made the final four for the first time. While we wish all teams well, the large investor conference sponsored by Channelchek, NobleCon19, will be held at the elaborate College of Business Executive Education at FAU. So this adds to all of our interest at Channelchek. These final March Madness games start on Saturday, April 1^st, and while we officially don’t have a consensus read on the final outcome, we hope for excellent play from all. Learn more about the NobleCon19 conference on the FAU campus by clicking here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230319a.htm

https://us.econoday.com/articles.aspx?cust=us&year=2023&lid=0

A Reason for Investors to Look at the New Dynamics of Broadcast Media

Posted on March 27, 2023March 27, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Selling Air Time is Getting Easier for Broadcast Radio

Is broadcast radio losing its power? It doesn’t appear to be, and the medium may be of interest to investors that prefer to shy away from short-lived investment trends and instead look to more easily understood opportunities. According to the industry publication Ad Age, the industry is nearing an intersection where “18- to 49-year-olds are spending more time listening to radio than watching linear TV.” At least one large company has reworked its advertising budget to save money with the expectation of reaching more people. Is this a trend hat will grow?

Re-investing in Radio

Soap opera’s got their start nearly 100 years ago as Proctor and Gamble, manufacturer of soap and candles, created the addictive entertainment to position its product ads in front of the typical soap decision maker of the time. As TV became a fixture in households in the 1950s, P&G adapted and brought the shows and the advertising to television. Last year P&G increased its spending on traditional broadcast radio by 43%. Despite all the new advertising options available, and the ability to refine targeting, P&G has a method to their madness, and it’s worth understanding.

Why the Reversal?

Last year, in the face of rising costs, the marketing giant came under margin pressure. In an attempt to minimize price hikes and maintain old margins, they cut ad spending by 10%, with a new budget of $2.2 billion.

The CEO Jon Moeller had told P&G brand marketers to focus on how many people they reach and how often, rather than how targeted or how much they spend. Chief Brand Officer Marc Pritchard became focused on the effectiveness of radio, connected TV, and streaming free ad-supported TV (FAST).

Belt Tightening

Just as inflation has caused many households to be more frugal, perhaps use less expensive brands, and eat more at home, companies like P&G are finding they are taking a similar approach. And if it helps keep prices down, they can more easily retain customers and attract new ones.

Here is some data on the extreme cost of reaching a broadcast TV audience. In the business, CPM (cost per mile) is a paid ad method where there is a certain rate for every 1000 impressions an ad receives. The CPM to reach TV audiences is as high as $35 to $65. For comparison, YouTube video CPMs range from $20 to $25, and linear TV is in the $10 to $15 range.

But radio can be bought in the $5-$6 CPM range. The targeting may not be as precise as broadcast TV or other media, but the amount spent for every 1000 impressions is a fraction of the alternatives.

During the last week in March, and first week in April, investors in South Florida and Naples will have the opportunity to meet the management of two interesting broadcast media companies, in a relaxed setting.

Places Investors Might Explore

Other large advertisers are stepping up their radio efforts as well. Pharmaceutical companies Pfizer, and Johnson & Johnson have started to spend more. According ad intelligence provider Vivvix. Pfizer became a top-five radio advertiser last year. They did this by more than doubling spending.

If you haven’t been following media companies, there is some acclimating to terminology, seasons, and how they profit. Two key places for information is the media report that Noble Capital Markets published late January of this year. The report which is available at this link was prepared by top analysts and discusses the recent state of radio, TV, digital media, and publishing.

A video produced just weeks before the published report by members of the same team can be helpful in providing you with insight as to one media company’s strengths over another. The video, featuring Michael Kupinski, Director of Research at Noble Capital Markets, is a half-hour full of insights. At this link.

Do you wish to hear directly from management of broadcast media companies impacted by new trends?

There are two companies that will be conducting three roadshows in Florida over the next two weeks. If you can attend, you’ll have the opportunity to hear directly from management what the future expectations are, and you’ll have the opportunity to ask questions of your own. The company names, locations and dates are available at this link, along with other scheduled roadshows.

Take Away

The most talked about stocks on the chat boards aren’t the only actionable opportunities astute investors can select from. As with all investing, growing your knowledge base can help one expand their watch-list.

P&G’s ad spend adjustment comes at a time when standard AM/FM radio has caught to and is neck and neck with linear TV (for people 18-49 in the U.S.). Radio audiences may not be growing, but they are not declining as broadcast TV audiences have – they are fairly consistent, and ad costs are a great value at a time when companies are dealing with their own increasing costs. This is getting the attention of large advertisers, and it perhaps should get the attention of investors.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Real Risks to TikTok Users

Posted on March 24, 2023March 24, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image: Congressional Hearings with Byte Dance (TikTok) CEO, C-SPAN (YouTube)

Should the US Ban TikTok? Can It? A Cybersecurity Expert Explains the Risks the App Poses

TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew testified before the House Energy and Commerce Committee on March 23, 2023, amid a chorus of calls from members of Congress for the federal government to ban the Chinese-owned video social media app and reports that the Biden administration is pushing for the company’s sale.

The federal government, along with many state and foreign governments and some companies, has banned TikTok on work-provided phones. This type of ban can be effective for protecting data related to government work.

But a full ban of the app is another matter, which raises a number of questions: What data privacy risk does TikTok pose? What could the Chinese government do with data collected by the app? Is its content recommendation algorithm dangerous? And is it even possible to ban an app?

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Doug Jacobson, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Iowa State University.

Vacuuming Up Data

As a cybersecurity researcher, I’ve noted that every few years a new mobile app that becomes popular raises issues of security, privacy and data access.

Apps collect data for several reasons. Sometimes the data is used to improve the app for users. However, most apps collect data that the companies use in part to fund their operations. This revenue typically comes from targeting users with ads based on the data they collect. The questions this use of data raises are: Does the app need all this data? What does it do with the data? And how does it protect the data from others?

So what makes TikTok different from the likes of Pokemon-GO, Facebook or even your phone itself? TikTok’s privacy policy, which few people read, is a good place to start. Overall, the company is not particularly transparent about its practices. The document is too long to list here all the data it collects, which should be a warning.

There are a few items of interest in TikTok’s privacy policy besides the information you give them when you create an account – name, age, username, password, language, email, phone number, social media account information and profile image – that are concerning. This information includes location data, data from your clipboard, contact information, website tracking, plus all data you post and messages you send through the app. The company claims that current versions of the app do not collect GPS information from U.S. users. There has been speculation that TikTok is collecting other information, but that is hard to prove.

If most apps collect data, why is the U.S. government worried about TikTok? First, they worry about the Chinese government accessing data from its 150 million users in the U.S. There is also a concern about the algorithms used by TikTok to show content.

Data in the Chinese Government’s Hands

If the data does end up in the hands of the Chinese government, the question is how could it use the data to its benefit. The government could share it with other companies in China to help them profit, which is no different than U.S. companies sharing marketing data. The Chinese government is known for playing the long game, and data is power, so if it is collecting data, it could take years to learn how it benefits China.

One potential threat is the Chinese government using the data to spy on people, particularly people who have access to valuable information. The Justice Department is investigating TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, for using the app to monitor U.S. journalists. The Chinese government has an extensive history of hacking U.S. government agencies and corporations, and much of that hacking has been facilitated by social engineering – the practice of using data about people to trick them into revealing more information.

The second issue that the U.S. government has raised is algorithm bias or algorithm manipulation. TikTok and most social media apps have algorithms designed to learn a user’s interests and then try to adjust the content so the user will continue to use the app. TikTok has not shared its algorithm, so it’s not clear how the app chooses a user’s content.

The algorithm could be biased in a way that influences a population to believe certain things. There are numerous allegations that TiKTok’s algorithm is biased and can reinforce negative thoughts among younger users, and be used to affect public opinion. It could be that the algorithm’s manipulative behavior is unintentional, but there is concern that the Chinese government has been using or could use the algorithm to influence people.

Can the Government Ban an App?

If the federal government comes to the conclusion that TikTok should be banned, is it even possible to ban it for all of its 150 million existing users? Any such ban would likely start with blocking the distribution of the app through Apple’s and Google’s app stores. This might keep many users off the platform, but there are other ways to download and install apps for people who are determined to use them.

A more drastic method would be to force Apple and Google to change their phones to prevent TikTok from running. While I’m not a lawyer, I think this effort would fail due to legal challenges, which include First Amendment concerns. The bottom line is that an absolute ban will be tough to enforce.

There are also questions about how effective a ban would be even if it were possible. By some estimates, the Chinese government has already collected personal information on at least 80% of the U.S. population via various means. So a ban might limit the damage going forward to some degree, but the Chinese government has already collected a significant amount of data. The Chinese government also has access – along with anyone else with money – to the large market for personal data, which fuels calls for stronger data privacy rules.

Are You at Risk?

So as an average user, should you worry? Again, it is unclear what data ByteDance is collecting and if it can harm an individual. I believe the most significant risks are to people in power, whether it is political power or within a company. Their data and information could be used to gain access to other data or potentially compromise the organizations they are associated with.

The aspect of TikTok I find most concerning is the algorithm that decides what videos users see and how it can affect vulnerable groups, particularly young people. Independent of a ban, families should have conversions about TikTok and other social media platforms and how they can be detrimental to mental health. These conversations should focus on how to determine if the app is leading you down an unhealthy path.

Block Inc. Versus Hindenberg Research, Who’s Correct?

Posted on March 24, 2023March 24, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image Credit: Hindenberg Research (YouTube)

The Details of the Hindenberg Research Report Include Serious Allegations

A legal face-off may be brewing as Block (SQ), the other company co-founded by Jack Dorsey, calls on the SEC for what Block calls an “inaccurate report.” The report Block (formerly Square) is referring to was released by Hindenberg Research on March 23. The research contends that Dorsey’s fintech company showed, “willingness to facilitate fraud against consumers and the government, avoid regulation, dress up predatory loans and fees as revolutionary technology, and mislead investors with inflated metrics.”

What is each side claiming, and what is the responsibility in releasing a report that may take Hindenberg into a fight with a company with a $44 billion market cap?

Who’s Involved?

Block is a financial technology company specializing in mobile payments founded in 2009 by Jack Dorsey and Jim McKelvey. The company’s flagship product is a small, square-shaped credit card reader that plugs into a smartphone or tablet and allows businesses to accept credit and debit card payments. Block has added other financial products and services, including point-of-sale software, payroll processing, and business loans.

Hindenburg Research provides investors with investigative research and analysis for the purpose of helping them identify potential risks or fraudulent practices in publicly traded companies. They are described as a short-selling, research-based firm. The Research is often considered within the context of its short-position investment strategy.

Image: Block’s flagship product – Nat’l Museum of American History Smithsonian Institution (Flickr)

What is Hindenberg’s Claim?

The research firm with a reputation of looking below the surface for trouble at firms, says Block is not what it claims to be. According to the Hindenberg report, the Dorsey-founded firm claims to have developed a frictionless and magical financial technology. The mission of this technology, the report quotes Block as saying is to empower the “unbanked” and the “underbanked.”

Hindenberg says that over two years of investigation that involved dozens of interviews with former employees that Block has systematically taken advantage of the demographics it claims to be helping. This refers to the stated mission of helping the underbanked. Instead, the research firm says this stands in conflict with, “the company’s willingness to facilitate fraud against consumers and the government, avoid regulation, and dress up predatory loans and fees as revolutionary technology, and mislead investors with inflated metrics.”

The two years of investigation also indicated that Block severely overstated its user counts and has understated its customer acquisition costs. This information, the report says, is based on former employees’ estimation that 40%-75% of accounts they reviewed were fake, involved in fraud, or were additional accounts tied to a single individual.

They claim a key metric that investors use to value the company are unclear. That is, how many individuals are on the Cash App. The report accuses the company reporting of misleading “transacting active” metrics filled with fake and duplicate accounts. Hindenberg says, “Block can and should clarify to investors an estimate on how many unique people actually use Cash App.”

Hindenberg said the app is used for illegal activity and points to all the rap songs written about engaging in illegal activity, activity made possible with the help of the app. The research company even made a compilation video to demonstrate this point (link to video under “Sources” below).

A line in one of the songs is, “I paid them hitters through Cash App.” Heritage contests that Block paid to promote the video for the song called “Cash App” which described paying contract killers through the app. The song’s artist was later arrested for attempted murder.

According to the Hindenberg report, Block’s Cash App was also cited “by far” as the top app used in reported U.S. sex trafficking, according to a leading non-profit organization. Multiple Department of Justice complaints outline how Cash App has been used to facilitate sex trafficking, including sex trafficking of minors.

Beyond alleged facilitation of payment for crimes, the platform, former employees contend, is overrun with scam accounts and fake users. Examples of obvious distortions of user numbers is that “Jack Dorsey” has multiple fake accounts, including some that appear aimed at scamming Cash App users. “Elon Musk” and “Donald Trump” who have dozens of accounts in their names. Hindenberg contends they tested this flaw, “we ordered a Cash Card under our obviously fake Donald Trump account, checking to see if Cash App’s compliance would take issue—the card promptly arrived in the mail,” they gave as an example.

Block’s Response

Not to be dissed, management at Block called out the threatening press release. “We intend to work with the SEC and explore legal action against Hindenburg Research for the factually inaccurate and misleading report they shared about our Cash App business today.”

The Dorsey founded firm suggested that the research firm wrote the report for dubious reasons and that it may be part of an orchestrated reverse pump and dump, “Hindenburg is known for these types of attacks, which are designed solely to allow short sellers to profit from a declined stock price. We have reviewed the full report in the context of our own data and believe it’s designed to deceive and confuse investors.”

The company than comforted stakeholders saying, “we are a highly regulated public company with regular disclosures, and are confident in our products, reporting, compliance programs, and controls. We will not be distracted by typical short seller tactics.”

There’s Smoke, is There Fire?

Are the initial disparaging claims against Block’s business accurate? Is there merit to what Block says of Hindenberg Research? As Block may be seeking a legal remedy, it is unlikely that either party will be very vocal from here.

For investors, it’s logical that both parties cannot be right at the same time. One of the parties is overstating truth. If Block is indeed working with the SEC, this truth should eventually surface.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://youtu.be/StjWk3Mj-M4?t=8

https://hindenburgresearch.com/

https://investors.block.xyz/news/news-details/2023/Blocks-Response-to-Inaccurate-Short-Seller-Report/default.aspx

Will Banking Issues Infect Other Industries?

Posted on March 23, 2023March 23, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Fragile Investor Confidence Could Create Greater Repercussions, Says Moody’s

Bankdemic?

Moody’s Investors Service is cautiously optimistic bank problems will not spill over into the broader economy. However, in a new report, this top-three rating agency said they believe the financial regulators have acted in a way to prevent ripple effects from stressed banks, but they admit there is a good deal of uncertainty in both investor confidence and the economy as a whole. Moody’s wrote that “there is a risk that policymakers will be unable to curtail the current turmoil without longer-lasting and potentially severe repercussions within and beyond the banking sector.”

The reason for the rating services concern is, “even before bank stress became evident, we had expected global credit conditions to continue to weaken in 2023 as a result of significantly higher interest rates and lower growth, including recessions in some countries.” Moody’s said that the longer financial conditions remain tight, the greater the chance that industries outside of banking will experience problems.

Moody’s outlined three channels by which bank problems could become contagious to other sectors.

Three Spillover Channels Risks Defined

The first and most possible channel would be the problems encountered by entities with direct and indirect exposure to troubled banks. These can come in different forms. Financial and nonfinancial entities in the private and public sectors could have direct exposure to banks via deposits, loans, other transactional facilities, or direct holdings of weakened banks’ stocks or bonds. Unrelated, they may rely on a troubled bank for services essential to their business.

As it relates to this first channel, the rating agency wrote, “Monitoring and evaluating the direct and indirect links at the entity level will be a key focus of our credit analysis over the coming weeks and months.” Moody’s mentioned Credit Suisse by name in their note, saying the consequences of the UBS takeover are still unfolding, “Given the size and systemic importance of Credit Suisse, there likely will be varied consequences of its takeover for a range of financial actors with direct exposure to the bank.” The rating agency also believes the rapid completion of the deal appears to have avoided widespread contagion across the banking sector.”

The second channel Moody’s indicates could be most potent. It is that broader problems within the banking sector would cause banks to have stricter lending practices. Moody’s says that if this occurred, it would impact customers that are “liquidity-constrained.” The domino impact would then be that investors and lenders may become more cautious, “with particular regard to entities that are exposed to risks similar to those of the troubled banks.”

From this scenario, there is a potential for shocks from interest rate risk, asset-liability mismatches, a large imbalance of assets or liabilities, poor governance, weak profits, and higher leverage.

The third risk is seen as policy risk. For policymakers whose main focus is taming inflation, the bank problems pose additional challenges to steering the economy to a soft landing. Policy actions and expectations will continue to serve to shape market sentiment. Moody’s baseline case forecasts that it expects policy responses to be rapid if risks emerge. This could help keep entity-level issues from becoming systemic problems. Moody’s note recognizes that policy and implementation are challenging, and there are risks of policy missteps, limitations, or unintended consequences.

“One key policy challenge is how policymakers will address both inflation and financial stability risks,” Moody’s explained that inflation is still high and labor market strength continues. “the failure to rein in inflation now could lead to de-anchoring of inflation expectations and increased nominal bond yields, forcing even more tightening later to restore monetary policy credibility.”

Moody’s wrote that the actions taken by the central banks, and financial regulators show that they recognize the importance of agility and coordination to address arising problems while not acting in a way to add more stress and create a systemic crisis.

Take Away

The recent downfall of a few banks demonstrates how pulling liquidity out of an overly stimulated economy can cause withdrawal pains. Whether the new, tighter credit conditions will tip the economy into a deeper economic downturn as the spillover effect spreads to other sectors remains to be seen. If it occurs, Moody’s expects it would come from the interplay between preexisting credit risks, policy actions, and market sentiment. But, its role as a rating agency is to highlight possible risks. This is not a forecast, there forecast is that regulators and policymakers will have eventually succeeded to contain any ripple effects.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

https://www.moodys.com/research/Credit-Conditions-Global-Policymakers-have-responded-promptly-to-bank-stress–PBC_1362240?cid=B3FDB92CC8E17352

Investing in the Development of Cancer Drugs May be Considered Defensive

Posted on March 23, 2023March 23, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image: Visualization of a cancer cell (nucleus in blue) treated with bi-modular fusion proteins (BMFPs). BMFPs bind to an antigen on the surface of the cancer cell to be destroyed. – Inserm (Flickr)

Understanding the Cancer Treatment and Therapy Segments of Biotech

Transforming research discoveries into new cancer treatments takes investment in time and capital. But no one would argue that the end goals of this healthcare (biotech and pharma) sector are not worth it. Investing in the future of treating tumors, and preventing cancer growth is obviously rewarding from the human standpoint of saving life, but breakthroughs in oncology themselves could provide an investor that understands some of the more promising companies, oversized portfolio rewards. It goes without saying, knowledge and understanding of many companies at different stages of research and development, help the odds of being invested in successful stocks.

Exploding Growth

According to a report by Grand View Research published in early last year, the global oncology drugs market size was valued at $135.7 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2022 to 2028. The increasing prevalence of cancer, the rising geriatric population, and advancements in drug development and treatment modalities are some of the key factors driving the growth of the novel oncology drugs market.

Relief managing the side effects of treatments, especially chemotherapy, without opiods is also a part of this market. Changing treatment modalities, and growing demand for personalized medicine is still relatively new, and creating more growth opportunities. In addition, a continuing trend of mergers and acquisitions from pharmaceutical companies to expand their oncology drug pipelines and portfolios plays a part in the growth of this sector.

Meet the management of Onconova (ONTX) in NY,NY for lunch on March 28. This is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel products for patients with cancer. To request attendance, click the registration link here.

Where to Explore Cancer Treatment/Therapy Companies

Investors use Channelchek as one of their trusted outlets to discover and explore smaller public companies involved in oncology treatments and therapies. Below are five companies with a wealth of information housed on the platform. This includes high quality research and video content. For an expanded list of companies, a simple search on Channelchek under “Oncology” or “Cancer” will provide a wealth of more opportunities to discover.

Worth a Deeper Dive?

Onconova Therapeutics Inc. (ONTX) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing novel products for patients with cancer. It has proprietary targeted anti-cancer agents designed to disrupt specific cellular pathways that are important for cancer cell proliferation. Onconova’s novel, proprietary multi-kinase inhibitor narazaciclib (formerly ON 123300) is being evaluated in two separate and complementary Phase 1 dose-escalation and expansion studies. These trials are currently underway in the United States and China. Onconova’s product candidate rigosertib is being studied in an investigator-sponsored study program, including in a dose-escalation and expansion Phase 1/2a investigator-sponsored study with oral rigosertib in combination with nivolumab for patients with KRAS+ non-small cell lung cancer. For more information, please visit www.onconova.com.

Onconova has a roadshow scheduled on March 28 in Manhattan, NY. More information on attending the lunch is available here.

Genprex, Inc. (GNPX) is a clinical-stage gene therapy company focused on developing therapies for patients with cancer and diabetes. Its technologies are designed to administer disease-fighting genes to provide new therapies for populations with cancer and diabetes who currently have limited treatment options. Genprex works with world-class institutions and collaborators to develop drug candidates to further its pipeline of gene therapies in order to provide novel treatment approaches. Genprex’s oncology program utilizes its proprietary, non-viral ONCOPREX® Nanoparticle Delivery System, which the Company believes is the first systemic gene therapy delivery platform used for cancer in humans. ONCOPREX encapsulates the gene-expressing plasmids using lipid nanoparticles. The resultant product is administered intravenously, where it is then taken up by tumor cells that express tumor suppressor proteins that are deficient in the body. The Company’s lead product candidate, REQORSA™ (quaratusugene ozeplasmid), is being evaluated as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) (with each of these clinical programs receiving a Fast Track Designation from the Food and Drug Administration) and for small cell lung cancer. Genprex’s diabetes gene therapy approach is comprised of a novel infusion process that uses an endoscope and an adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector to deliver Pdx1 and MafA genes to the pancreas. In models of T1D, the genes express proteins that transform alpha cells in the pancreas into functional beta-like cells, which can produce insulin but are distinct enough from beta cells to evade the body’s immune system. In T2D, where autoimmunity is not at play, it is believed that exhausted beta cells are also rejuvenated and replenished.

In 2022 Genprex was one of the more popular presenters at the NobleCon investor conference. A video replay of its presentation is available here.

Imugene Ltd. (IUGNF) is a clinical stage immuno-oncology company developing a range of new and novel immunotherapies that seek to activate the immune system of cancer patients to treat and eradicate tumours. Our unique platform technologies seek to harness the body’s immune system against tumours, potentially achieving a similar or greater effect than synthetically manufactured monoclonal antibody and other immunotherapies. Our product pipeline includes multiple immunotherapy B-cell vaccine candidates and an oncolytic virotherapy (CF33) aimed at treating a variety of cancers in combination with standard of care drugs and emerging immunotherapies such as CAR T’s for solid tumours. We are supported by a leading team of international cancer experts with extensive experience in developing new cancer therapies with many approved for sale and marketing for global markets.

For more data and information, visit immunogen on Channelchek.

MAIA Biotechnology Inc. (MAIA) is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. Noble Capital Markets initiated coverage of MAIA on February 21, 2023. A copy of the report can be found here.

PDS Biotechnology Corporation (PDSB) is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on our proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T cell-activating technology platforms. We believe our targeted Versamune® based candidates have the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing large quantities of high-quality, potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T cells. To date, our lead Versamune® clinical candidate, PDS0101, has demonstrated the potential to reduce tumors and stabilize disease in combination with approved and investigational therapeutics in patients with a broad range of HPV-positive cancers in multiple Phase 2 clinical trials. Our Infectimune™ based vaccines have also demonstrated the potential to induce not only robust and durable neutralizing antibody responses, but also powerful T cell responses, including long-lasting memory T cell responses in pre-clinical studies to date. To learn more, please visit www.pdsbiotech.com or follow us on Twitter at @PDSBiotech.

As part of the Channelchek TakeAway Series, Senior Life Sciences Analyst, Robert LeBoyer sat down with management and discussed PDS Bio, listen to the discussion, including questions from the audience here.

Take Away

In the investment arena, oncology is a growing part of the healthcare sector, specifically the biotechnology and pharmaceutical segments. Companies that develop and market oncology drugs or provide related services are viewed as uncorrelated to other sectors. The demand for the next generation of improved treatments is expected to be ongoing. While the approval process and regulatory bottlenecks of biotech are unlike any other product category, there are many reasons to review and consider this largely uncorrelated sector – then dig deeper to possibly cancer R &D.

For the smaller companies considered to have the most potential, a good starting point is Channelchek where you’ll find articles, research, videos, and data, all in one place.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/oncology-drugs-market-share-and-forecast-till-2028-2023-03-20

https://investingnews.com/daily/life-science-investing/biotech-investing/top-oncology-companies/

March’s FOMC Meeting and the Changed Statement

Posted on March 22, 2023March 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The FOMC Remains Highly Attentive to Inflation Risks

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise overnight interest rates from a target of 4.50% – 4.75% to the new target of 4.75% – 5.00%. This was announced at the conclusion of the Committee’s March 2023 meeting. The monetary policy shift in bank lending rates after the last meeting had been viewed as certain but recently called into question as the banking system’s health came into question. Some point to the rapid ratcheting of rates as a chief cause of the banking concerns. However, inflation is viewed by the Fed as a problem that can’t be ignored. In fact february’s statement after the meeting made mention of “inflation easing.” This statement shows the Fed left that out and instead provided that inflation, “remains elevated.”

As for the U.S. banking system, which is part of the Federal Reserves responsibility, the FOMC statement reads, the “U.S. banking system remains sound and resilient.”

There were few clues given in the statement about the size of a next move if any. Powell generally shares more thoughts on the matter during a press conference beginning at 2:30 after the statement.

Below are notable excerpts from the announcement of today’s change in monetary policy:

From the Fed Release March 22, 2023

“Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have picked up in recent months and are running at a robust pace; the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects is uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. The Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the extent of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.”

Take Away

A key phrase in the statement is, “The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.” The Fed is faced with core inflation that has been trending up, despite its historic one-year of aggressively tightening policy.

For investors, higher interest rates can weigh on stocks as companies that rely on borrowing may find their cost of capital has increased. The risk of inflation also weighs heavily on the markets. For stock market investors, they may find that fixed-income investments that pay a known yield may, at some point, be preferred to equities. For these reasons, higher interest rates are of concern to the stock market investor. However, rising rates devalue bond values held in a portfolio, so there are concerns in both markets.

The market has been holding rates down across the curve as the Fed has been working to increase them. There is no indication as to whether this behavior will continue.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230322a.htm

One Place to Look for Low Market Risk with Home Run Potential

Posted on March 22, 2023March 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Less Attention is Being Paid to SPACs, But the Risk Reward Scenario Can’t Be Ignored

Uncertain markets warrant additional attention to risk versus possible reward on investments, especially when the least risky money funds pay 4% or more. This need to minimize risk, yet desire to have the opportunity to, at a minimum, beat inflation and in the best case scenario, hit a grand slam, might cause investors to revisit the hot investment of 2021. Like most investment sectors that do well, back then it became too crowded with issuance and overpromise. But the Special Purpose Acquisition Corp (SPAC), is getting far less attention these days – yet the relatively low risk for investors, and low competition for acquisition corps. to find that “unicorn,” it could increase the percentage of SPAC home runs. All the while limiting potential downside returns.

Special Purpose Acquisition Corps.

Investors that just want to make (or lose) the returns of a major index may not find investing in individual SPACs, at any stage, fits their investment approach. But the SPAC legal structure could suit investors that want to minimize their downside to a more or less known potential, and maximize their possible above average returns – SPACs may match these investment objectives better than alternatives.

Let’s cover risk first. SPAC investors have limited risk as their investment is held in a trust account until the SPAC identifies a target company and completes a merger. If the SPAC fails to identify a target, the investors will return their money, plus today’s higher accrued interest rates, less management, legal, and administrative fees. That is to say, a SPAC purchased as an IPO could be expected to be up or down one or two percent from the initial (usually $10) IPO price.

As ulcer-producing volatility in the major indices over the past year has shown, the feeling of having a floor on losses is comforting. The monetary distance to this floor is reduced if a post SPAC IPO, still looking for a target is trading below the $10 IPO price.

Does low risk mean low returns? SPACs offer the potential for low risk/high returns for investors who get in before an announced target. If the SPAC is successful in identifying and merging with a high-growth company, the share price could increase significantly. The targets often are successful private companies with tremendous potential, more of the potential could be realized with an injection of cash from the SPAC merger/acquisition. that would be able to expand.

What if an investor is opposed to the proposed merger? SPAC investors have the flexibility to decide whether or not to participate in the merger with the target company. If they choose not to participate, they can redeem their shares for the original investment amount plus interest, less administrative costs. This is another way that investors minimize their downside risk.

What are the risks? Investing in SPACs also comes with potential risks, such as the possibility of the SPAC failing to identify a suitable target company, this would essentially have tied up the investment capital used to purchase the SPAC. Another risk is the target company not performing as expected after the merger; as mentioned above, the pre-merger investor gets to decide if they opt in or opt to have pro-rata share of initial investment returned. As with any investment, it’s important to do your due diligence, look at any changes in the regulatory environment, and carefully evaluate the structure and goals.

What Does SPAC Investment Success Look Like?

Not all SPACs find a suitable target. An investor wants the management team exploring possibilities to be diligent and picky. But despite the large number of SPACs that have gone no place during the abundance offered in 2021, it’s easy to find examples of why investors like the market. Below are three very different examples of what success looks like:

In green is Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC). It’s the only stock represented below that is pre-merger. The initial IPO was for $10 back in April 2021. Recent numbers show that a failure to merge with its current target, Trump Media, would result in approximately a $10 per share liquidation. Initial investors will have lost opportunity should this occur as they took the full ride from beginning to this possible end.

In October after the IPO, Digital World announced it had reached a preliminary agreement to merge with the digital media company founded by the former U.S. president. The shares skyrocketed over 900%. For those that bought the once $10 shares for $96, they may not have called this right, for those that purchased around the offer price, their risk of losing money is low, and they currently sit at a 34% profit.

In orange is Hostess (TWNK). This has been a SPAC success story which dates back to 2016 when there were only 13 SPAC IPOs all year. By comparison, there were 613 in 2021, and to date only 8 in 2023. Fewer SPACs chasing the same potential targets could work in investors’ favor. Many of the SPACs that are still less than two year old are still shopping. However most of those arrangements are expected to be returning shareholder funds. While Hostess is up 103% since March three years ago, it has gained 236% since the merger announcement.

Bowlero (BOWL), shown in blue, announced the merger with Isos Acquisition Corp. on July 1, 2021. The merged company would have at first disappointed investors as it dipped slightly. This is understandable as investing in leisure did not seem that it would offer quick gratification, as the pandemic hit this sector hard. However, the stock is up 54% in less than two years and up 58% YTD.

Shown here in purple, DraftKings (DKNG) merged April 24, 2020. Post merger, for those who held the Diamond Eagle Acquisition SPAC shares, they saw the stock jump 5% on the day of the announcement, eventually rise over 350%, and over time come back down to match the initial jump, 6% YTD.

Above are success stories, of varying degrees. There are many SPACs that don’t find the ideal merger partner, for the initial purchasers at $10, or those buying shares sub-$10 after the offering, their risk can be considered lower than the overall market. The potential for large gains, exists.

What Does a SPAC Investment Failure Look Like?

The most an investor will lose in an index fund investment approximates the decline of the index less management fees. The most an investor in any of the individual stocks in a major market index can lose is all of their investment. When an investor takes part in a SPAC IPO or purchases shares trading below the IPO price later, they have claim to funds held in escrow that would have been used for an acquisition. These funds seldom grow or shrink by more than 2%. SPAC investors could look at the risk of losing $2 per share (2%), versus possibly gaining double or triple-digit returns as better than market risk. But investors have lost some of their initial investment, and once the deal is struck, voted on by shareholders, and moves forward, the investment risk goes from very low, to just as risky as any other company traded. In other words, up to 100%.

Take Away

Low-risk and high-reward investments may not suit all portfolios. But for those that like to reduce the odds of loss, the glut of previously offered SPACs that are retiring this year, coupled with the lack of new offerings, could set the stage for easier target hunting for unmatched SPACs. Also, older SPACs trading at or below the enterprise value may be worth looking at, the cash in the escrow accounts are earning today’s yields, and may even be worth more than the share price.

To look for current opportunities of companies that have announced a merger, but not yet completed one, a source of information is Channelchek. Earlier this month, Better World Acquisition Corp. (BWAC) announced it will be merging with Heritage Distilling Co. The combined company expects to trade under the ticker CASK. A current research report detailing the planned acquisition along with valuation is made available here, from Noble Capital Markets.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.spacanalytics.com/

https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-and-bulletins/what-you-need-know-about-spacs-investor-bulletin

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/burst-of-broken-spac-deals-sends-jitters-through-battered-sector#xj4y7vzkg

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/audit/solutions/spac-services.html?id=us:2ps:3gl:spacB:awa:aud:050122:ad1:kwd-974274046309:spac%20transactions:p:c&gclid=CjwKCAjwzuqgBhAcEiwAdj5dRnY3WAKMPtIu2aNUS7q8B-gFNclweAQbi3qBjAM19Kua6P_-iN5XzBoCKk0QAvD_BwE

https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/what-is-a-spac

Blockchain Decentralized Organizations are Quietly Growing Behind the Scenes

Posted on March 21, 2023March 21, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Evolution of Blockchain Includes the Less Heralded DAO

Less talked about creations that can only exist with blockchain technology are Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAO). This is an organization that operates autonomously on a blockchain network, using smart contracts to execute its functions. While a famous Ether hack gave DAO’s a figurative black-eye a few years back, the defi organizations exists and new purposes, and with that new challenges as well.

What is a DAO?

A Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) is a type of organization that is run by smart contracts on a blockchain network rather than a centralized authority. In a DAO, the rules and regulations are encoded in computer code, which is executed automatically by the blockchain network. This means that decisions are made through a decentralized voting process rather than being controlled by a central authority.

DAOs are not controlled by any single entity or individual but rather by a distributed network of users. The DAO will self-execute on rules and directives encoded in the blockchain. All of these decisions and transactions made within a DAO are recorded on a public blockchain, this is designed to make them transparent and auditable.

DAOs can be used for a wide range of applications, including governance, finance, and decentralized applications (DApps). They offer a way for communities to come together and govern themselves in a decentralized and transparent way, without the need for a centralized authority.

The Purpose of a DAO

The purpose of a DAO is to provide a trusted method of organizing and managing a group of people, without the need for a centralized authority. DAOs are designed to be self-governing, transparent, and autonomous. They enable members to collaborate on a common goal, make decisions through a democratic process, and manage resources in a decentralized way. DAOs are often used for fundraising, investing, and community-driven projects.

Examples of DAOs

One of the most well-known examples of a DAO is The DAO, which was launched in 2016. The DAO was a decentralized investment fund that raised $150 million in Ether (the cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network). Unfortunately, The DAO was hacked shortly after its launch, leading to the loss of millions of dollars. This event highlighted the potential risks associated with DAOs and the need for proper security measures.

A more successful example of a DAO is MakerDAO, which is a decentralized lending platform that uses a stablecoin called DAI. MakerDAO enables users to borrow and lend cryptocurrency without the need for a centralized authority. It operates autonomously through a set of smart contracts that are stored on the Ethereum blockchain network.

Who Uses DAOs?

DAOs are typically used by communities, organizations, and individuals such as Decentralized Finance (DeFi). The Defi projects use DAOs to govern the platform and make decisions about its future path and development.

Some gaming communities have used DAOs to manage in-game assets and govern the community. Social media outlets have chosen decentralization and implement a DAO social media platforms use govern the platform and make decisions about content moderation and platform development.

Are DAOs Legal and Safe?

Regarding the safety and legality of DAOs, they can be safe and legal if designed and implemented correctly. However, like any technology, there are risks associated with DAOs, including the potential for hacking and exploitation of smart contracts.

The legality of DAOs depends on the jurisdiction and the specific nature of the DAO. In some countries, there may be regulatory frameworks that apply to DAOs, while in others they may not be explicitly recognized. In general, the local law applies to the DAO. Those that engage in illegal activities or violate securities laws can be subject to legal action. Regulations specifically applicable to this new technological format are subject to revision.

Take Away

Blockchain technology has grown and evolved since the creation of the first DAO, simply called, The DAO, in 2016. The development of new blockchain platforms and smart contract languages has made it easier to create and operate DAOs, and there are now many different types of DAOs being developed for various use cases. The security of blockchain technology has also improved and expanded adoption and adaptation to different groups will rely on the trust of the technology to shield itself from outside harm.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://blockworks.co/news/reevaluating-crypto-journalism-funding

https://www.investopedia.com/tech/what-dao/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-16/a-trip-down-the-crypto-rabbit-hole-in-search-of-the-dao-hacker#xj4y7vzkg

Michael Burry’s Chart Tweet is Worth Understanding

Posted on March 21, 2023March 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

To Show Banks at Risk, Michael Burry’s Picture Equals 1000 Words

Michael Burry has a well-deserved reputation for foreseeing approaching crises and positioning his hedge funds to benefit client investors. While he’s most famous for his unique windfall leading to and after the mortgage crisis of 2008-2009, the current banking debacle has him tweeting thoughts most days. His most recent bank-related tweet is worth sharing and, for most investors, needs some explaining.

Recently Burry posted a chart of some large banks and their insured deposit base relative to their Tier 1 capital.

Common Equity Tier 1 Capital (CET1)

To best understand this chart it helps to be aware that for U.S. banks, the definition of Tier 1 capital is set by regulators. It’s an apples to apples measure of a banks’ financial strength and easily used to compare bank peers. Overall it is the bank’s core capital, and helps to understand how well the banks financial infrastructure can absorb losses. It includes equity and retained earnings, as well as certain other qualifying financial instruments.

Unrealized Bank Losses

The sub-prime banking crisis of 2008 is different than what banks are struggling with now. The problem then was created by lax lending practices, including liar loans, floating rate mortgages with teaser rates, significant house flipping using these introductory (teaser) first year rates, and repackaging and selling the debt – often to other banks.

The current issue facing banks today is the prolonged period of rates being held down by monetary policy. Low rates makes for easy money and economic growth, but there is eventually a cost. The cost is overstimulus and inflation, then what is needed to fight inflation, in other words, higher rates.

Higher rates hurt banks in a number of ways. The most calculable is the value of their asssets, including publicly traded fixed rate obligations (Treasuries, MBS, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, other bank marketable CDs) all decline in worth when rates rise. The other way banks get hurt is that loans extend out when rates rise by a significant amount. As a bank customer, this is easy to understand, if you took out a 30-year mortgage two years ago, your rate is between 2.75%-3.50%. If mortgage rates move, as they did to 7%, the prepayment speeds on the loans extend out farther. That is to say fewer borrowers are going to add more to their principal payment each month, and those that may have bought another residence by selling the first and paying the loan off, are staying put. The banks had assigned a historic expected prepayment speed to each loan that represents their region, and the low rate loans are now going to take much longer to repay.

FDIC Insurance

Michael Burry (on assets as described above) used his Bloomberg to chart large bank unrealized losses to the potential for depositors to remove their uninsured deposits. Currently the FDIC is only obligated to insure bank deposits up to $250,000. Customers with deposits in excess of this amount (depending on how registered) leave their excess money at a single bank at their own risk.

It would seem logical for large customers and small, in this environment to check their own risk and bring it to zero.

The Wisdom of the Chart

The further up and to the right banks are on the chart, the more at risk the bank can be considered. This is because uninsured deposits equal more than 60% of liabilities, so prudent customers would move someplace where they are better protected.

However, if depositors do move money out of the banks listed here, the bank would have to either find new deposits, or stand to lose 30% or more by selling assets that are underwater because of rising rates. The banks are currently not easily able to go out into the market and attract money. Partially because we are now in a climate where even basic T-Bill levels would be high for a bank to pay, but also because there is less money supply (M2) in the system.

Take Away

Michael Burry is a worth paying attention to. His communication is often through Twitter, and his tweets are often cryptic without context. His most recent set of tweets, including one commenting on the chart outlines what is happening with a number of banks that find themselves in the unenviable position of ignoring the Fed’s forward guidance on rates and very public inflation data.

Sign-up for free stories daily from Channelchek, along with research and a full calendar of investor events. Sign up here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Cassandra B.C. on Twitter

The Central Banks High Wire Act

Posted on March 20, 2023March 20, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Worst Bank Turmoil Since 2008 – Fed is Damned if it Does and Damned if it Doesn’t in Decision Over Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve faces a pivotal decision on March 22, 2023: whether to continue its aggressive fight against inflation or put it on hold.

Making another big interest rate hike would risk exacerbating the global banking turmoil sparked by Silicon Valley Bank’s failure on March 10. Raising rates too little, or not at all as some are calling for, could not only lead to a resurgence in inflation, but it could cause investors to worry that the Fed believes the situation is even worse than they thought – resulting in more panic.

This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of, Alexander Kurov, Professor of Finance and Fred T. Tattersall Research Chair in Finance, West Virginia University.

What’s a Central Banker to Do?

As a finance scholar, I have studied the close link between Fed policy and financial markets. Let me just say I would not want to be a Fed policymaker right now.

Break It, You Bought It

When the Fed starts hiking rates, it typically keeps at it until something breaks.

The U.S. central bank began its rate-hiking campaign early last year as inflation began to surge. After initially mistakenly calling inflation “transitory,” the Fed kicked into high gear and raised rates eight times from just 0.25% in early 2022 to 4.75% in February 2023. This is the fastest pace of rate increases since the early 1980s – and the Fed is not done yet.

Consumer prices were up 6% in February from a year earlier. While that’s down from a peak annual rate of 9% in June 2022, it’s still significantly above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

But then something broke. Seemingly out of nowhere, Silicon Valley Bank, followed by Signature Bank, collapsed virtually overnight. They had over US$300 billion in assets between them and became the second- and third-largest banks to fail in U.S. history.

Panic quickly spread to other regional lenders, such as First Republic, and upset markets globally, raising the prospect of even bigger and more widespread bank failures. Even a $30 billion rescue of First Republic by its much larger peers, including JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, failed to stem the growing unease.

If the Fed lifts interest rates more than markets expect – currently a 0.25 percentage point increase – it could prompt further anxiety. My research shows that interest rate changes have a much bigger effect on the stock market in bear markets – when there’s a prolonged decline in stock prices, as the U.S. is experiencing now – than in good times.

Making the SVB Problem Worse

What’s more, the Fed could make the problem that led to Silicon Valley Bank’s troubles even worse for other banks. That’s because the Fed is at least indirectly responsible for what happened.

Banks finance themselves mainly by taking in deposits. They then use those essentially short-term deposits to lend or make investments for longer terms at higher rates. But investing short-term deposits in longer-term securities – even ultra-safe U.S. Treasurys – creates what is known as interest rate risk.

That is, when interest rates go up, as they did throughout 2022, the values of existing bonds drop. SVB was forced to sell $21 billion worth of securities that lost value because of the Fed’s rate hikes at a loss of $1.8 billion, sparking its crisis. When SVB’s depositors got the wind of it and tried to withdraw $42 billion on March 9 alone – a classic bank run – it was over. The bank simply couldn’t meet the demands.

But the entire banking sector is sitting on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of unrealized losses – $620 billion as of Dec. 31, 2022. And if rates continue to go up, the value of these bonds will keep going down, which fundamentally weakens banks’ financial situation.

*The Fed has been aggressively raising rates to stem the rapid increase in prices for items such as food.*

Risks of Slowing Down

While that may suggest it’s a no-brainer to put the rate hikes on hold, it’s not so simple.

Inflation has been a major problem plaguing the U.S. economy since 2021 as prices for homes, cars, food, energy and so much else jump for consumers. The last time consumer prices soared this much, in the early 1980s, the Fed had to raise rates so high that it sent the U.S. economy into recession – twice.

High inflation quickly cuts into how much stuff your money can buy. It also makes saving money more difficult because it eats at the value of your savings. When high inflation sticks around for a long time, it gets entrenched in expectations, making it very hard to control.

This is why the Fed jacked up rates so fast. And it’s unlikely it’s done enough to bring rates down to its 2% target, so a pause in lifting rates would mean inflation may stay higher for longer.

Moreover, stepping back from its one-year-old inflation campaign may send the wrong signal to investors. If central bankers show they are really concerned about a possible banking crisis, the market may think the Fed knows the financial system is in serious trouble and things are more dire than previously thought.

So What’s a Fed to Do

At the very least, the complex global financial system is showing some cracks.

Three U.S. banks collapsed in a matter of days. Credit Suisse, a 166-year-old storied Swiss lender, was teetering on the edge until the government orchestrated a bargain sale to rival USB. A $30 billion rescue of regional U.S. lender First Republic was unable to arrest the drop in its shares. U.S. banks are requesting loans from the Fed like it’s 2008, when the financial system all but collapsed. And liquidity in the Treasury market – basically the blood that keeps financial markets pumping – is drying up.

Before Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, interest rate futures were putting the odds of an increase in rates – either 0.25 or 0.5 percentage point – on March 22 at 100%. The odds of no increase at all have shot up to as high as 45% on March 15 before falling to 30% early on March 20, with the balance of probability on a 0.25 percentage point hike.

Increasing rates at a moment like this would mean putting more pressure on a structure that’s already under a lot of stress. And if things take a turn for the worse, the Fed would likely have to do a quick U-turn, which would seriously damage the Fed’s credibility and ability to do its job.

Fed officials are right to worry about fighting inflation, but they also don’t want to light the fuse of a financial crisis, which could send the U.S. into a recession. And I doubt it would be a mild one, like the kind economists have been worried the Fed’s inflation fight could cause. Recessions sparked by financial crises tend to be deep and long – putting many millions out of work.

What would normally be a routine Fed meeting is shaping up to be a high-wire balancing act.

Digging into Mining Stocks “Need-to-Knows”

Posted on March 20, 2023March 20, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image: 12,000 feet above sea level, the Salar de Uyuni is rich in copper and lithium – Elias Rovielo (Flickr)

A Look at Mining Stocks and Where to Find Opportunity

Look around the room you’re in, with the exception of your cup of coffee and whatever you may be eating; almost everything came out of the ground at some point. This includes the wires you can’t see in the walls, the ring on your finger, and the minerals in the battery of your phone. Demand for these elements isn’t going away. And it’s no secret that the need for many is growing. This includes minerals used for power storage, gold purchased by cautious investors, and uranium which is expected to fuel modern reactors.

From an investor’s standpoint, this provides opportunity. But the mining sector is a bit different than others, especially the smaller, high-potential mining stocks. Stock selection relies on an understanding of the company, its opportunity, and also what minerals it is involved in. The demand for these materials, which make everyday modern life possible, does rise and fall with new inventions and global demand for growth. But, demand is never expected to dry up. In fact, it could be said that with each passing day, there’s an incremental but growing scarcity of natural resources.

Just back from the PDAC minerals and mining convention in Toronto, Noble Capital Markets Sr. Natural Resources Analyst discusses his take aways from the huge event and interviews 12 select mining companies, and provides his insights and takes your questions. More information available here for March 21^st online event.

Precious Metals

Gold and silver have traditionally been stores of value. The flood of newly minted money as stimulus during the pandemic, and the difficulty central banks are having reducing the expanded supply of money, have caused inflation. As world currencies lose value, gold and silver tend to go up in value versus traditional money. For mining stocks, a rule of thumb is as long as it costs less to pull the metal from the ground, than the value of the element, company value is inclined to move in the same direction as the element. Silver, for its part, is also considered important in manufacturing many solar panels and is an industrial metal as well as decorative.

Base Metals

Base metals are essential for building infrastructure, the value of the metals and often the mining stocks associated with these building blocks rise and fall with economic activity. Iron ore, for steel, is the most mined metal. It’s critical for bridges, buildings, and pipelines.

Aluminum is second on the list of most mined metal; while we are familiar with household uses such as foil and beverage cans, its light weight, strength, and rigidity make it critical for aerospace, automotive, and marine applications.

Copper is also considered a base metal, critical in infrastructure growth because of its conductive properties.

Base metal mining stocks are often looked at when world economies are committing to growth, or when they have come out of a period of low growth and are expected to return to a more normal pace.

Battery Metals

Renewable energy is creating more demand for copper and some non-base metals. This has been a big recent driver of interest in mining stocks. The renewable energy sector will continue to grow demand for storage and transmission of power.

Image Credit: Mark Reichman (Sr. Analyst, Noble Capital Markets)

The expected demand makes sense, but in terms of numbers it is very compelling. For example, to build a wind turbine with a capacity of three megawatts it will takes 335 tons of steel, 4.7 tons of copper, 3 tons of aluminum and more than 700 pounds of rare earth minerals – plus other materials such as aggregates.

A conventional power plant requires fewer metals, about one ton of copper is used in a facility that can continuously produce one MW of power. The trade off being the non-renewable fuel used to generate electricity traditionally. But, for now renewable energy sources require more metals, the sector is experiencing planned growth, this accelerates demand for these materials.

Electric vehicle production also uses a significant amount of materials from the mining sector. For example, an electric car requires four times the amount of copper to build. Lithium (used in electric car batteries) is being consumed at a pace near the capacity to pull it from the ground and process the mineral. By 2050, analysts predict that consumption may be up to 170% above currently known lithium reserves. This assumes no change in technology. There is a lot of speculation about how this will be handled and where the raw materials will come from.

If the reasons listed above have not yet convinced you to focus some of your exploration on investing in mining stocks, then let’s see what additional benefits may come from select companies and summarize them below.

Why Investors Allocate to Mining

Goods that will continue to be required, even in times of crisis will always have some level of demand. Those that are looked at as important to the future growth of the world economy have an even stronger underlying argument.

If one is looking for exposure to the EV market and expected growth, selecting a car company out of the dozens that are popping up both from the traditional automakers, and new entrants could cause a watered-down investment in the new demand for the building blocks. While an investment in mining companies may not seem as sexy as one in a company that makes state of the art vehicles, the underlying building blocks are what will be in most demand.

Stocks allow the possibility of capital gains not possible from investing directly in gold or a gold ETF. Depending on the stock there may even be the opportunity for dividends or royalty payments.

There is the ability to diversify into stocks that cover different parts of the economy. In addition to what was mentioned above, there are coal miners, uranium miners, cobalt, and pretty much everything else that comes out of the ground.

Each March there is a large mining conference that takes place in Toronto. The Senior Natural Resources Analys from Noble Capital Markets was there a few weeks ago and is presenting on some of what he learned. At the same time he’s meeting with a dozen mining companies that were in attendance.

Whether you are a veteran investor in this sector, or new and wishing to absorb as much as you can from Sr. Management of mining companies, register for free here to attend this online discovery event.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/why-electric-cars-may-soon-flood-the-us-market-a9006292675/

https://www.ifminvestors.com/docs/default-source/insights/ifm-investors—what-we-look-for-in-miners-and-explorers.pdf?sfvrsn=31e2305_2

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/040815/what-criteria-classify-company-junior-gold-miner.asp

https://www.tsinetwork.ca/reports/best-canadian-mining-stocks-tsx-plus-gold-stocks-canadian-diamond-mines-and-more/

The Week Ahead – UBS Buying Credit Suisse, FOMC Decision

Posted on March 19, 2023March 19, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

What Will the First Week of Spring 2023 Bring Investors?

The week started out with Swiss authorities having persuaded UBS Group AG (UBSG.S) on Sunday to buy Credit Suisse Group AG (CSGN.S). UBS will pay 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) for 167-year-old Credit Suisse and assume up to $5.4 billion in losses in a deal backed by a massive Swiss guarantee. It is expected to close on the deal this year.

The main focus of investors this week is still expected to be the two-day FOMC meeting and rate decision on Wednesday. While the need to dampen inflation hasn’t changed, weakness in the banking system, in part brought on by weaker asset prices which occurs naturally with higher rates, may cause the Fed to adjust its approach.

Monday 3/20

No Economic numbers are to be released
5:24 PM ET, Spring 2023 begins.

Tuesday 3/21

9:00 AM ET, The first day of a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins.
10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for February are expected to rise to a 4.17 million annualized rate after January’s lower-than-expected 4.0 million rate.isting home sales in

Wednesday 3/22

10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Petroleum Status Report, provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
2:00 PM ET, FOMC statement released. It has been a year since the Fed began its tightening post FOMC meetings and is expected to raise rates again. However, the statement after the meeting should yield clues as to the impact, if any, weakness in banks has on the path forward for the Fed.
2:30 PM ET, Federal Reserve Chair J. Powell will hold a press conference to discuss the Fed’s decision.

Thursday 3/23

8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims Jobless for the week of March 18 are expected to come in at 195,000 versus 192,000 in the prior week.
10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales are expected to fall to 645,000 after surging to a 670,000 annualized rate in January.
4:30 PM ET, The Federal Reserves Balance Sheet now includes the new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) announced last Sunday.

Friday 3/24

8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to post a 1.5% rise in February boosted by an easy comparison against January’s 4.5% decline which was impacted by lower aircraft orders.
9:30 AM ET, The ST. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard is expected to give a public address. Bullard has been an outspoken hawk among Fed regional Presidents.

What Else

The markets are focused on the Fed announcement Wednesday, and holding its collective breath to see if there will be more bank closures and forced sales, or if there are only a few banks impacted by weak balance sheets.

On Tuesday there will be a live online event that is part of the Take Away series by Noble Capital Markets. This event will feature select mining companies from the PDAC mining conference held earlier this month. Learn more about the no cost event here.

For institutional or individual investors in New York or South Florida, there may be the opportunity to listen to the management of some interesting companies (no cost). Entravision (EVC) will be presenting in New York on March 23, and management of Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) is making themselves available to meet investors on March 25 in Miami. Get more information here on attending.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20230319a.htm

https://us.econoday.com/articles.aspx?cust=us&year=2023&lid=0