Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Near-Term Estimates; Outlook Remains Favorable


Monday, September 25, 2023

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our fiscal year 2023 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $81.2 million and $3.25 per share from $82.0 million and $3.30 per share. Our estimates reflect lower gross margins during the September quarter due to the negative impact of raw material fluctuations, primarily for nickel and cobalt. We have reduced our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $104.3 million and $4.50 per share from $106.8 million and $4.65. Our revised 2024 estimates reflect seasonality and more conservative sales volume growth assumptions albeit at modestly higher margins. The first quarter of each fiscal year is typically Haynes’ lowest revenue and earnings quarter due in part to holidays and planned maintenance.

Strong order backlog. Orders during the June quarter resulted in a record backlog of $468.1 million and represented a 4.8% increase compared to the prior quarter and a 38.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. Backlog pounds increased 3.2% during the third quarter to approximately 14.6 million pounds and increased 20.7% compared to the prior year period driven by strong demand in the aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets. In our view, the strong order book is indicative of the company’s strong competitive position and favorable outlook.


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GeoVax Labs, Inc. (GOVX) – Positive Data From CM04S1 Phase 2 and Preclinical Trials


Monday, September 25, 2023

GeoVax Labs, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing novel therapies and vaccines for solid tumor cancers and many of the world’s most threatening infectious diseases. The company’s lead program in oncology is a novel oncolytic solid tumor gene-directed therapy, Gedeptin®, presently in a multicenter Phase 1/2 clinical trial for advanced head and neck cancers. GeoVax’s lead infectious disease candidate is GEO-CM04S1, a next-generation COVID-19 vaccine targeting high-risk immunocompromised patient populations. Currently in three Phase 2 clinical trials, GEO-CM04S1 is being evaluated as a primary vaccine for immunocompromised patients such as those suffering from hematologic cancers and other patient populations for whom the current authorized COVID-19 vaccines are insufficient, and as a booster vaccine in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL). In addition, GEO-CM04S1 is in a Phase 2 clinical trial evaluating the vaccine as a more robust, durable COVID-19 booster among healthy patients who previously received the mRNA vaccines. GeoVax has a leadership team who have driven significant value creation across multiple life science companies over the past several decades.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

GEO-CM04S1Phase 2 Clinical and Preclinical Data Show Efficacy. GeoVax announced publication of initial Phase 2 data from the CM04S1 trial in immunocompromised patients that showed significant immune responses. A poster presentation at a medical meeting showed preclinical data on CM04S1 efficacy against multiple variant strains. We believe both publications support our expectations that CM04S1 can effectively stimulate both humoral and cellular immunity.

Initial Responses Seen In Immunocompromised Patients. GeoVax announced the publication of initial data from its Phase 2 trial for GEO-CM04S1 in immunocompromised patients with hematological malignancies in the journal Vaccines. The data showed both humoral and cellular immune responses in patients with reduced immune function that have difficulty responding to vaccination. The immune markers were superior or comparable to historical cohorts from healthy patients receiving the Pfizer mRNA vaccine.


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QuantaSing Group Limited (QSG) – A Favorable Course For Revenue and Cash Flow Growth


Thursday, September 21, 2023

QuantaSing is a leading online service provider in China dedicated to improving people’s quality of life and well-being by providing lifelong personal learning and development opportunities. The Company is the largest service provider in China’s online adult learning market and China’s adult personal interest learning market in terms of revenue, according to a report by Frost & Sullivan based on data from 2022. By leveraging its proprietary tools and technology, QuantaSing offers easy-to-understand, affordable, and accessible online courses to adult learners under a variety of brands, including QiNiu, JiangZhen and QianChi, empowering users to pursue personal development. Leveraging its extensive experience in individual online learning services, the Company has also expanded its services to corporate clients including, among others, marketing services and enterprise talent management services.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $10 price target. QuantaSing is the largest online individual learning service provider in China, by revenue. It launched in 2019 with a focus on adult financial literacy courses, before expanding to personal interest courses. Additionally, the company operates an e-commerce platform focused on liquor, which could expand product offerings in the future. Our favorable rating is based on the company’s positive cash flow growth outlook.

Scalable business model. The company acquires customers at a low cost by offering free introductory courses advertised through online sources, providing a large audience to which it can sell its premium courses, Currently, the company has over 94 million total registered users on its free course offerings. Notably, the company can quickly develop new courses tailored to customer needs, which provides flexible monetization opportunities. 


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Newrange Gold (NRGOF) – Advancing Toward the Creation of Pinnacle Silver & Gold Corp.


Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Newrange is focused on district-scale exploration for precious metals in the prolific Red Lake District of northwestern Ontario. The past-producing high-grade Argosy Gold Mine is open to depth, while the adjacent North Birch Project offers additional blue-sky potential. Focused on developing shareholder value through exploration and development of key projects, the Company is committed to building sustainable value for all stakeholders. Further information can be found on our website at www.newrangegold.com .

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Americas-focused silver-gold exploration company. In May,Newrange executed a binding Scheme Implementation Deed (SID) to acquire 100% of Mithril Resources Limited (ASX: MTH) in a reverse takeover (RTO). Pending approval by the TSX Venture Exchange, the resulting company will be named Pinnacle Silver & Gold Corp. and will be listed on the TSX Venture exchange under the symbol “PINN.” The transaction is subject to various conditions, including approval by Newrange and Mithril shareholders and by various governmental and regulatory bodies. The transaction is expected to close following the Newrange and Mithril shareholder meetings on October 5th and October 13th, respectively. Mithril would then be delisted from the ASX exchange.

Flagship project. The Copalquin gold-silver project is in Durango State, Mexico and covers an entire mining district containing several dozen historic gold and silver mines and workings. The district is within the Sierra Madre Gold-Silver Trend which extends north-south along the western side of Mexico and hosts many world-class gold and silver deposits. Based on a recent NI 43-101 compliant technical report, the El Refugio target area is estimated to contain indicated resources of 121,000 ounces of gold and 2,538,000 ounces of silver and inferred resources of 252,000 ounces of gold and 8,414,000 ounces of silver.


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The ODP Corporation (ODP) – CEO Takes a Medical Leave


Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Medical Leave. Yesterday, The ODP Corporation announced that Gerry P. Smith, the Chief Executive Officer of the Company, began a temporary medical leave of absence to undergo a medical procedure that requires several weeks of recovery. Effective immediately, the Board of Directors of the Company appointed Joseph S. Vassalluzzo, the Company’s non-executive Chair of the Board, to assume Mr. Smith’s authority and responsibilities until Mr. Smith returns from his medical leave.

Mr. Vassalluzzo Background. Mr. Vassalluzzo has served as the independent non-executive Chairman of the Board since February 2017 and has served as a member of the Board since August 2013. Mr. Vassalluzzo has extensive industry experience. He was employed by Staples, Inc. from 1989 until 2005 and his duties included worldwide responsibility for all of Staples’ real estate activities, including the development and management of all retail stores; distribution; office and warehouse centers; international operations; engineering, construction and design activities; facilities management; M&A activities; and the Legal Department function. Mr. Vassalluzzo also served as Staples’ vice chairman from 1999 to 2005.


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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Another $34.8 Million of Awards


Monday, September 18, 2023

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Additional Work. Over the past week, the Department of Defense announced two additional awards to Great Lakes with a total value of $34.8 million. Recall, the DOD only discloses awards in excess of $7.5 million in its press releases, so the published number likely under-estimates the actual amount of work Great Lakes has been awarded over time.

Award 1. On September 8th, Great Lakes was awarded a $16.2 million firm-fixed-price contract for beach nourishment. Work will be performed in Cape May, New Jersey, with an estimated completion date of March 20, 2024. Fiscal 2023 civil construction funds in the amount of $16.2 million were obligated at the time of the award.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Non-Core Asset Sales Provide Funds for Reinvestment in Growth Businesses


Friday, September 15, 2023

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Sale of battery recycling facility. Comstock’s LINICO subsidiary sold its battery recycling facility in the Tahoe Reno Industrial Center and associated assets to American Battery Technology Company (OTCQX: ABML) for $27 million comprised of cash and ABML shares. LINICO had leased the facility with an option to purchase for $15.25 million, of which $3.25 million was paid. Comstock made the remaining $12.0 million payment to Aqua Metals, Inc. (Nasdaq: AQMS) to purchase the facility prior to closing its transaction with ABML. American Battery Technology Company initiated a 1-for-15 reverse split of its common stock effective at 9:00 am ET on September 11, 2023.   

Sale of American Battery Technology Company shares. Comstock recently sold its 9,076,923 ABML common shares for approximately $5.5 million. Related to the sale of the battery recycling business, Comstock has now generated total and net cash proceeds of $26.5 million and $14.5 million, respectively, representing a net gain on the sale of ~$7 million that will be reflected in the company’s third quarter financial statements. American Battery Technology Company will make a final payment of $0.5 million in cash during the fourth quarter of 2023.


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Ocugen (OCGN) – OCU400 Update Shows Improvement In Three Vision Measures


Thursday, September 14, 2023

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Data Shows Clinically Meaningful Improvements. Ocugen provided an update to the Phase 1/2 clinical trial data for OCU400 in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and Leber congenital amaurosis (LCA), two rare diseases in which genetic mutations cause loss of vision and progress to blindness. We see these data as clinically meaningful for these indications as well as providing proof-of-concept for Ocugen’s method of targeting a “master control gene” that has downstream effects on other genes.

We See Proof-of-Concept For The “Master Control Gene” Approach. RP is a group of genetic disorders with over 100 possible genetic mutations that may be present and contributing to loss of vision. This makes the course of disease highly variable and difficult to target with a single therapy. Ocugen has been developing OCU400 to target the RHO and NR2E3 genes that control pathways and regulate other genes that act later in those pathways. The data show that OCU400 can affect several genetic pathways in eye, with improvements in three measures of vision.


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EuroDry (EDRY) – EuroDry doubles down on shipping recovery


Wednesday, September 13, 2023

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

EuroDry announced the acquisition of three ships for $65 million. The three Ultramax ships are smaller than the fleet average but newer having been built in 2014-15. The ships are expected to be delivered in Oct-Nov and are yet to be commissioned. We have assumed the ships will be commissioned at a TCE rate of $12,000/day beginning in the 2024-1Q. This assumes an improvement in drybulk shipping rates in the next three months. Our models estimate that the three ships will add $4 million to EBITDA in 2024 implying a cost of 16 times EBITDA.

Of course this is not just about 2024 results. Chairman and CEO Aristides Pittas used the opportunity of the acquisition to reiterate his belief that market fundamentals will improve in the next two to three years due to a low orderbook. We agree with Mr. Pittas’s assessment but note that the prolonged war in Ukraine (lower grain trade) and a slower-than-expected economic rebound in China (steel and ore trade) could mean improvements are not seen in 2024.


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Defense Metals Corp. (DFMTF) – Wicheeda REE Mineral Resource Estimate Upgraded and Expanded


Wednesday, September 13, 2023

Defense Metals Corp. is a mineral exploration and development company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral deposits containing metals and elements commonly used in the electric power market, defense industry, national security sector and in the production of green energy technologies, such as, rare earths magnets used in wind turbines and in permanent magnet motors for electric vehicles. Defense Metals owns 100% of the Wicheeda Rare Earth Element Property located near Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. Defense Metals Corp. trades in Canada under the symbol “DEFN” on the TSX Venture Exchange, in the United States, under “DFMTF” on the OTCQB and in Germany on the Frankfurt Exchange under “35D”.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mineral resource estimate. Defense Metals released results from its updated mineral resource estimate (MRE) for the Wicheeda Rare Earth Element (REE) Project. The 2023 mineral resource estimate is based on an updated geological model incorporating the results from 10,350 meters of drilling within 45 holes drilled by Defense Metals during 2021 and 2022.

Larger and higher-quality resource base. The 2023 resource estimate includes a 6.4 million tonne measured mineral resource averaging 2.86% total rare earth oxide (TREO), a 27.8 million tonne indicated mineral resource averaging 1.84% TREO, and an 11.1 million tonne inferred mineral resource averaging 1.02% TREO. The 2023 mineral resource estimate represents an 18.2% increase in TREO and a 31.3% in tonnage compared to the 2021 MRE. Total measured and indicated mineral resources of 34.2 million tonnes, averaging 2.02% TREO is a significant upgrade compared to the previous estimate and can be included in the mine plan for the preliminary feasibility study that is expected to be completed in the first half of 2024.


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LithiumBank Resources (LBNKF) – DLE Intellectual Property License Agreement with G2L Greenview Resources


Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Licensing agreement. LithiumBank Resources executed an intellectual property license agreement with G2L Greenview Resources, a subsidiary of Go2Lithium Inc., encompassing direct lithium extraction (DLE) technologies based on ion-exchange that will be used to extract lithium salts from enriched brines present at LithiumBank’s projects in Alberta and Saskatchewan. LithiumBank expects to release an updated preliminary economic assessment for the Boardwalk project late in the fourth quarter of 2023 that will reflect test work using the technology and the impact of Canadian incentive tax credits for lithium brine processing.

Licensing and financial terms. The license is exclusive to LithiumBank in Alberta and Saskatchewan and may be sub-licensed by LithiumBank to an acquirer of any of its properties in Alberta or Saskatchewan subject to certain conditions. LithiumBank will issue up to 14 million common shares in staggered fashion to G2L upon satisfaction of certain milestones.


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Indonesia Energy Corp. (INDO) – Government contract extension adds value


Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Indo extended its Kruh Block contract five years with an increased after-tax split. Indo’s contract with Pertamina, the state-owned oil and gas company, now extends to September 2035. The amended contract increases Indo’s after-tax split to 35% from 15%. The extension, while not unexpected, comes after Indo had suspended drilling in the Kruh Block to complete a well workover. The favorable extension helps justify Indo taking its time in the Kruh Block as it completes a 3D seismic program to optimize drilling locations. We believe the government was willing to agree to the settlement as a way to spur Indo to increase drilling activity.

An operational update provides little new information. The company also updated investors regarding drilling plans in the Kruh Block and the Citarum Block. Management reiterated plans to drill 14 additional wells in the Kruh Block by the end of 2026 with the next well starting in 2024. Management did indicate that it expects to receive an environmental permit for seismic activity in the Citarum Block in 2023-4Q with work to begin in 2024-1Q. Our models assume one well drilled in the Citarum Block and two wells drilled in the Kruh Block in 2024.


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Bowlero (BOWL) – Rolls A Solid Quarter


Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q4 Full year results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $239.4 million and $64.5 million, respectively, both of which were roughly in-line with our estimates. While the company faced difficult comps in Q4, event revenue was up 7% in the quarter, and 43% for the year. 

A year of investment. Management highlighted that revenue in fiscal full year 2024 is expected to increase in the range of 10% to 15% from full year 2023. Given planned investment spending, adj. EBITDA is expected to grow less than revenues, with adj. EBITDA margins in the range of 32% to 34%, slightly below that of the 34.7% adj. EBITDA margins for fiscal 2023. The company also plans to invest $160 million for acquisitions, $40 million for new builds and $75 million for conversions. 


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