Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Perfect Corp. (PERF) – B2C Drives Q3 Beat

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 beat. Perfect Corp. reported better-than-expected Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $16.1 million, slightly better than our estimate of $15.7 million. Adj. EBITDA of $1.2 million and adj. net income of $3.2 million were also better than our estimates of a loss of $0.3 million and a gain of $1.6 million, respectively. Figure #1 Q3 Results highlights how the performance compared with our forecast.  

B2C leading the way. Management noted that the company’s B2C segment was the key revenue growth driver in the quarter. Moreover, the company is poised to capitalize on an expanding B2C opportunity set with a web-based service offering. Notably, web-based services offer higher margins than the company’s mobile app offerings, due to the lack of Android and iOS app store fees.


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GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Q3 Preview: Upside Surprise Potential

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 preview. We estimate the company’s upcoming Q3 revenue and adj. EBITDA to be $103.0 million and $4.9 million, respectively. There is the prospect for an upside surprise, however, particularly for adj. EBITDA. We believe that the company’s ongoing strategy for improving operational efficiency could be reflected in this quarter. The company is expected to report Q3 results in the second week in November. 

Enhancing efficiency. During the company’s Q2 earnings call, management highlighted its focus on efficiency in its user acquisition strategy. We believe the company’s efficient use of marketing spend, particularly in areas that provide sufficient returns, could indicate upside surprise potential for adj. EBITDA, not only from our estimate, but also the Street consensus which is $8.5 million. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) – Islet Cell Transplant Results Are A Breakthrough For Diabetes

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, October 30, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Eledon Announces Islet Cell Transplant Patients Achieve Insulin Independence. A clinical study using tegoprubart as an immunosuppressant in islet cell transplantation was presented at a medical meeting on Tuesday, October 29, 2024. The first two subjects treated with tegoprubart as an immunosuppressant were able to control blood glucose within the normal range and achieve insulin independence. We see this as a significant advance that could allow islet cell transplantation to allow diabetics to become insulin independent.

Tegoprubart Prevented The Toxicities That Have Led To Failure. Previous attempts to transplant healthy islet cells to restore insulin production have been unsuccessful. This is partly due to the side effects of tacrolimus, the standard of care for immunosuppression that is effective but toxic to the kidney and islet cells. In this trial, tegoprubart was used instead of tacrolimus, with results showing the islet cells were able to survive, engraft, and produce insulin and without the toxicities associated with tacrolimus.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Third Quarter Results Negatively Impacted by Operational Challenges

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, October 29, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Third quarter financial results. Alliance reported third quarter EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $170.7 million and $0.66, respectively, compared to $227.6 million and $1.18 during the prior year period. We had forecast adjusted EBITDA of $220.5 million and $0.82, respectively. Revenue declined 3.6% to $613.6 million because of lower coal sales prices which declined 2.1% due in part to lower export pricing in Appalachia. Operating expenses increased 13.5% due to a longwall move and challenging mining conditions at all three Appalachia operations that reduced recoveries and increased costs. The partnership also experienced a $2.3 million loss related to its equity investment in Francis Energy.

Adjusting estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $760.1 million and $3.25, respectively, from $813.6 million and $3.60. Our estimates reflect lower coal sales and higher segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton. Additionally, we have modestly lowered our 2025 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $831.7 million and $3.40, respectively, from $835.2 million and $3.43. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Travelzoo (TZOO) – Acceleration In Growth Expected In 2025

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, October 24, 2024

Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Steady as she goes. Third quarter results were in line with our estimates, with revenue of $20.1 million (down 2.4% year over year), versus our estimate of $20.9 million. Adj. EBITDA was $4.6 million (up 19.3% year over year), better than our estimate of $3.8 million by almost 21% due to lower than expected sales & marketing expenses.

Swing toward revenue growth. Advertising revenue was down slightly to $19.7 million from $20.0 million in Q2, with membership revenue up from $1.2 million in Q2 to $1.4 million in Q3. The membership revenue increase reflected improved subscriptions with Jack’s Flight Club, which was expanded into Canada. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – A Varis Sale

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, October 24, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Sale. The ODP Corporation reported that on October 18, 2024, the Company sold its Varis Division to an affiliate of Arising Ventures. The Company did not release the terms of the agreement. We expect to see additional detail on the Company’s third quarter earnings call.

Details. ODP is retaining a minority interest of 19.9% after the sale. Under the terms of the agreement, the Company will fund up to $4 million of expenses that Varis may incur following the transaction date until December 31, 2025, and has no further obligations to contribute capital to Varis. The terms of the sale did not result in a materially different impact on the Company’s financial statements than previously estimated.


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FreightCar America (RAIL) – Raising Price Target Based on Higher Revenue and Margin Growth Expectations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, October 24, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Pure play manufacturer. FreightCar America, Inc. is a diversified manufacturer of railroad cars and rail car components. The company designs and manufactures a broad variety of railroad car types for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America. The company reported strong second-quarter financial results and appears poised for greater scale and margin expansion as it increases its market share and expands its product suite.

On the path to greater profitability. While the company has broadened and diversified its product portfolio, we expect further growth into new areas such as producing tank cars which is expected to support margin expansion. Growth in the conversion and rebody business, along with increased parts sales, could enhance gross margins and reduce the company’s top-line sensitivity to the cyclicality associated with new railroad car orders. Additionally, we think FreightCar America will continue to improve its cost profile through productivity and efficiency gains.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Euroseas (ESEA) – Raising Estimates on New Vessel Deliveries and Charters

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Time Charter Contracts: Euroseas executed new time charter contracts for three feeder vessels, M/V Tender Soul, M/V Dear Panel, and M/V Symeon P. All three contracts are for a minimum period of 34 months and a maximum period of 36 months at a rate of $32,000/day. The charter for M/V Tender Soul is considerably higher than its previous $17,000 and is expected to take effect in early to mid-December. M/V Dear Panel and M/V Symeon P. are the last two of the company’s nine-vessel newbuilding program and are expected to be delivered at the beginning of January 2025. These charters are expected to contribute about $79 million of EBITDA for the minimum contract period, increasing the company’s 2025 coverage to roughly 63%.

Picking its sweet spot. The company has made it a point to build out its fleet with a focus on smaller feeder vessels, insulating itself from historical growth in the industry orderbook. Furthermore, Euroseas has invested in eco-friendly vessels as the market continues to push for more environmental regulations. We believe these new profitable charters highlight the success of this two-pronged strategy. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

EuroDry (EDRY) – Expecting Weak Third Quarter Financial Results but a Strong Finish to the Year

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, October 23, 2024

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating estimates. We lowered our 2024 net loss and loss per share estimates to $(2.3) million and $(0.85), respectively, from $(1.8) million and $(0.65). Our revisions were driven by an increase in dry-docking expenses during the third quarter and modestly lower average shipping rates. While we are forecasting a third quarter loss, we expect a relatively strong fourth quarter. We forecast 2025 EBITDA and EPS of $37.3 million and $5.65, respectively.

Market fundamentals. The outlook for the remainder of 2024 remains positive, particularly in the Capesize market which is expected to benefit from Atlantic iron ore and bauxite exports. Rates for Panamax and smaller vessels are expected to remain stable at current rates. Disruptions in the Red Sea have caused re-routing of vessels around Africa which have increased ton-miles. In 2025, bulker earnings may be impacted by outcomes of the Red Sea situation and global economic growth and infrastructure spending, particularly with respect to China.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Making Significant Progress on Multiple Fronts

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Pending transaction with SBC Commerce. Comstock recently executed an indicative term sheet for $325 million, or $315 million net of transaction fees, in funding through SBC Commerce LLC (SBCC), a U.S. based private equity group. The transaction is contingent on final due diligence and applicable regulatory approvals and is expected to close in tranches over the next several months. When the transaction was announced, it contemplated SBCC taking equity ownership positions in each business unit commensurate with the amount of its investment. Increasingly, it appears that a portion of the transactions could include debt which could have implications for our valuation which is currently based on the terms summarized in the original release. 

Third quarter 2024 achievements. Comstock achieved significant milestones during the third quarter, including executing an exclusive license and cooperative research and development agreement with the Department of Energy’s National Renewable Energy Laboratory, executing an international license agreement for three industry scale fuel hubs, recording first revenues from the sale of recycled aluminum and announcing new contracts with new customers for the decommissioning and disposal of solar panels.


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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) – A Pretty Big Reset

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Getting back on track. The company made a substantial step forward by becoming current on its filings. On Tuesday, October 15th, it reported full year 2023, first quarter 2024, and second quarter 2024 results. The delay in its filings was due to the resignation of the company’s previous auditor, Marcum.

Issues unrelated to the audit. During the first half of the year, the company’s Sell-side revenue was disrupted when its largest client paused service, which coincided with a lawsuit with an activist shareholder. The client subsequently reconnected to the company’s SSP, but volumes have not yet fully recovered. This severely disrupted Q2 results and appears will have a lingering effect for the balance of the year.


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Perfect Corp. (PERF) – An AI Company Positioned to Accelerate Revenue Growth

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, October 21, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with Outperform rating. We are initiating coverage on Perfect Corp., an AI technology company, with an Outperform rating and $5 price target. The prospect of additional interest rate cuts should lead to an improving environment for the company to grow its enterprise client base, leading to enhanced revenue growth and improving margins. 

Seizing B2B and B2C opportunities. The company’s AI and AR technology powers its market leading virtual try-on service, used by beauty brands and retailers alike for skincare products and makeup. The company also leverages its technology to offer a suite of products direct to consumers through its apps. These include capabilities like AI-enhanced photo editing and generative AI.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

SelectQuote (SLQT) – Debt Reduction Strategy Becomes Tangible

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, October 18, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

De-levering effort takes a step forward. On October 15, the company completed its previously announced securitization of a portion of its commission receivables, resulting in $100 million of newly issued securitized notes. With the proceeds, the company is paying down $100 million of its existing term loans. Importantly, the company also extended the maturities of the balance of its term loans to late 2027 (previously maturing in early 2025).

Attractive financing option. The average effective interest rate on the newly issued securitized loans is roughly 8.5%, significantly better than the company’s term loan effective rate (nearly 15%). Moreover, the newly created asset backed securities are investment grade and the company could offer the product to third-party asset managers in the future. Given that it has roughly $1 billion in commission receivables, we believe securitization is a powerful debt reduction tool for the company


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.