Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

NN, Inc. (NNBR) – A Look into the Fourth Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 06, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Year of Transformation. Management highlighted its first full year of transformation, as the Company upgraded leadership positions and added to its Stamped Products, Electrical, and Medical teams. They also secured new business to offset rationalized business and create a path to y-o-y growth, increased gross margins, and decreased leverage to name a few actions. Lastly, the underperforming plants are expected to generate positive EBITDA in the new year compared to a negative $11.5 million last year.

New Business Wins. The Company had $73 million of new business wins for the fiscal year, surpassing the previous year of $63 million. As for 2025, the Company has $13 million in new wins year-to-date and remains on pace towards its guidance of $60-$70 million in new wins for the year. These wins are expected to soon ramp into Company sales as well, with roughly $21 million of new business expected to launch in Q1 2025 across multiple plants and countries.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – South Texas to Resume Operations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 06, 2025

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

South Texas to Resume. Yesterday, CoreCivic announced a new intergovernmental agreement to resume operations at the 2,400-bed South Texas Family Residential Center in Dilley, Texas, for ICE. CoreCivic has entered into a new lease agreement with Target Hospitality, the owner of the facility, over period concurrent with the ICE agreement. We view this a further confirmation of the Federal government’s need for additional bed capacity in the drive to deport undocumented migrants.

Details. The amended IGSA expires in March 2030 and may be further extended through bilateral modification. The agreement provides for a fixed monthly payment in accordance with a graduated schedule to correlate with the activation of each neighborhood within the facility. Once fully activated, total annual revenue is expected to be approximately $180 million, including medical services. With the Company having already started pre-activation activities earlier this year, we expect this award to be accretive to earnings beginning in the second quarter of 2025.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – Post Call Commentary

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 06, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Twin Hospitality. Significant opportunity remains at Twin Hospitality. The Company ended the year with 115 Twin Peaks lodges, having opened nine new lodges. Twin Hospitality expects to open an additional 9-11 lodges in 2025, with 6-7 franchised and an additional 10-15 lodges in both 2026 and 2027. The Company has over 100 signed franchised commitments and the remaining conversion of approximately 30 Smokey Bones locations to drive new openings.

New Openings. FAT Brands expects to open over 100 new locations in 2025, with 17 already opened year-to-date. We anticipate strong organic growth across the portfolio in 2025. The current development pipeline consists of signed agreements for approximately 1,000 additional locations, including over 250 units signed in 2024. Once these units are opened, we expect them to generate approximately $50 million in incremental annual adjusted EBITDA.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ Inc. (AZZ) – Updating Estimates; Raising PT

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, March 06, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A market leader with a strong growth profile. AZZ is the leading independent provider of hot dip galvanizing and coil coating solutions to a broad range of end markets. We expect AZZ Precoat Metals’ new manufacturing facility in Washington, Missouri to contribute to top-line growth in fiscal year 2026 while capital expenditures decline. Approximately 75% of the facility’s production is already committed and could generate $50 million to $60 million in revenue on an annualized basis once production is fully ramped. 

Fiscal 2026 corporate guidance. In early February, AZZ Inc. released financial guidance for fiscal year 2026 and expects sales in the range of $1.625 billion to $1.725 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $360 million to $400 million, and adjusted diluted EPS of $5.50 to $6.10. Fiscal year 2026 guidance included an increase in the Metal Coatings EBITDA margin expectations to a range of 27% to 32% from 25% to 30%, while Precoat Metals EBITDA margin expectations are unchanged at 17% to 22%.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Upgrading to Outperform with $32 PT

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, March 05, 2025

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Upgrading to Outperform. We are upgrading GEO shares to Outperform with a $32 near-term price target. We believe there is substantial opportunity just in filling existing beds under current contracts, with the opening of currently idle facilities, new facilities, and expansion of the ISAP program providing additional upside.

Opportunity. GEO has an additional 17,000 beds to provide for ICE detention requirements, which would increase GEO’s overall bed capacity for ICE to about 32,000 beds. The incremental 17,000 beds includes approximately 9,400 beds in current idle facilities that will be reconfigured for detention use and approximately 7,700 incremental beds available at existing GEO serviced ICE and U.S. Marshal’s facilities under contract. Management estimates the utilization of these additional 17,000 beds could generate between $500 million and $600 million in incremental annualized revenues, with margins consistent with secure services owned facilities which average 25% to 30%.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD) – Development Agreement With Abbott Brings Another Tecarfarin Indication To Clinical Trials

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, March 05, 2025

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Cadrenal and Abbott Announce The LVAD Collaboration We’ve Been Waiting For. Cadrenal announced a development agreement with Abbott (ABT, Not Rated) to develop Tecarfarin in patients with Abbott’s HeartMate3 LVAD (left ventricle assist device). Under the agreement, Abbott will support Cadrenal’s pivotal TECH-VLAD (TECarfarin Anticoagulation and Hemocompatibility with Left Ventricular Assist Devices) trial in its design, site selection, recruitment, and its HeartMate3 experience.

LVAD Patients Have An Unmet Need For A New Anticoagulant. While Direct Oral Anticoagulation Drug (DOAC) category has been highly successful, there are several populations where they are not effective or have safety risks. Patients with LVAD devices can only use warfarin, a drug that has variable efficacy with several drawbacks, including a requirement for frequent patient monitoring. LVAD patients have less effective anticoagulation and remain at high risk for coagulation events (bleeding, stroke, myocardial infarct). 


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Ocugen (OCGN) – OCU410 and OCU410ST Receive ATMP Classification In Europe

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, March 04, 2025

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Ocugen Now Has Three Products With ATMP Designation. Two Ocugen products, OCU410 and OCU410ST, received Advanced Therapy Medicinal Product (ATMP) designation from the European Medicines Agency Committee for Advanced Therapies (EMA-CAT). These join OCU400, which received this designation for retinitis pigmentosa (RP) in February 2025. The designation is similar to the Breakthrough Therapy designation from the FDA, allowing increased interactions with the regulators and accelerating regulatory review.

OCU410 Has Completed Phase 2 Dosing In GA. The Phase 2 portion of the ArMaDa (pronounced ‘Armada”) trial has completed enrollment for OCU410 in geographic atrophy (GA), a lesion that results from advancing dry Age-related Macular Degeneration (dry AMD). The study has enrolled 51 patients randomized into a high dose arm, medium dose arm, or control. The completion of the dosing phase was ahead of our expected time frame, keeping the company on schedule to conduct Phase 3 in 2026 and potentially file for regulatory approval in 2028.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – Doubling Down on B2B

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, March 04, 2025

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Macro Headwinds. While macro headwinds remain in the B2B and B2C segments, green shoots are appearing, with new B2B contracts and an expanding pipeline of new business opportunities. Over at retail, the Company has seen improved traction with targeted profitable sales campaigns and value added promotions.

Playing to its Strengths. Project “Optimize for Growth” and the B2B focus plays into ODP’s core strengths, such as robust supply chain assets, distribution capabilities, and an expansive B2B customer base. We believe these moves position ODP to unlock sustainable growth and long-term success.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) – Some Breathing Space

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, March 04, 2025

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Capital Infusion. Last night, after the market closed, Comtech Telecommunications announced a new $40 million capital infusion from the current holders of Comtech’s convertible preferred and subordinated debt, or White Hat Capital and Magnetar Financial. The new capital infusion is made on the same terms and conditions as the prior subordinated debt investment.

Uses. Of the $40 million infusion, $27.3 million is being used to prepay the senior secured term loan and $3.2 million to reduce the revolving credit facility, with a waiver of the prepayment penalties that would have been owed in accordance with the terms of the credit agreement.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Euroseas (ESEA) – Fourth Quarter and FY 2024 Review and Outlook

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, March 03, 2025

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth quarter results. Euroseas reported fourth quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share (EPS) of $32.8 million and $3.33, respectively, compared to our estimates of $34.7 million and $3.66. While revenues were generally in line with our estimates, operating expenses were higher than expected. Drydocking expenses were ~$1.7 million above our estimates, while general and administrative expenses were ~$600 thousand above our estimates due to higher share-based compensation.

2025 outlook. Container ship charter rates remained stable in the fourth quarter, with feeder and intermediate segments showing modest gains in early 2025. While ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea continue to support rates, the potential reopening of the Suez Canal could have a negative impact. The global containership orderbook remains high, and vessels have started to come to market. While a large orderbook poses risks, the feeder and intermediate sectors where Euroseas operates face limited new supply and aging fleets.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Strategic Partnership with Marathon Petroleum

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, March 03, 2025

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Marathon investment in Comstock Fuels. Comstock Fuels entered into definitive agreements with subsidiaries of Marathon Petroleum Corporation, including the purchase of $14.0 million in Comstock Fuels equity as part of Comstock’s planned Series A preferred equity financing. Consideration includes $13.0 million in payment-in-kind (PIK) assets comprised of equipment, intellectual property, and other materials at Marathon’s former renewable fuel demonstration facility in Madison, WI. While the PIK assets were transferred as of the February 28 effective date, the cash portion will be received within five business days of Comstock Fuels’ execution of third-party Series A financing agreements totaling at least $25.0 million.

Key elements of the agreements. The agreements included: 1) an agreement for future equity governing the portion of the investment issued in exchange for the PIK assets, 2) an asset transfer agreement to assign the PIK assets, 3) a license agreement covering applicable intellectual property, 4) an agreement to provide post-closing conditions, and 5) a board observer agreement executed as of the effective date. Separately, Comstock executed a commercial lease for the Madison facility at a rate of $44,000 per month.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY) – OLC Shows Synergy With Alternative Potassium Binder

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 21, 2025

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Pre-Clinical Study Shows Synergy With Tenapanor. Unicycive Therapeutics announced the results of an animal model study that tested its phosphate binder, OLC, or oxylanthanum carbonate, and tenapanor, a phosphate-control drug that works through a different mechanism than the phosphate binding drugs. The results showed OLC had a greater reduction than tenapanor, and the combination of both drugs given together had synergistic effects that were better than either drug given alone.

Study Design. Tenapanor (Xphozah, from Ardelyx) is a sodium/hydrogen exchanger 3 (NHE3) inhibitor that works through paracellular absorption. It is used in patients that do not respond to phosphate binders or do not tolerate them. The study, “Combination Oxylanthanum Carbonate and Tenapanor Lowers Urinary Phosphate Excretion in Rats,” was published in the American Nephrology Society’s journal Kidney360. It compared the two drugs against a control (delivery vehicle alone) in rats receiving a high phosphorus diet.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

InPlay Oil (IPOOF) – Transformative Acquisition of Pembina Cardium Oil Assets

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 21, 2025

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strategic acquisition. InPlay Oil Corp. executed a definitive agreement to acquire light oil-focused assets from Obsidian Energy Ltd. (TSX: OBE, NYSE American: OBE) in the Pembina area of Alberta. The assets have a current production rate of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), with 68% consisting of oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The total purchase price is C$309 million and will consist of C$220 million in cash, C$85 million in InPlay common shares priced at C$1.55 per share, and the inclusion of InPlay’s non-operated 34.6% working interest in the Willesden Green Cardium Unit #2 oil field, which has a year-end 2023 Proved Developed Producing (PDP) value of about C$4.4 million.

Transaction highlights. The acquisition appears to offer significant synergies and benefits to InPlay’s operations. InPlay’s production is expected to more than double to 18,750 boe/d from previous guidance of 8,650-9,150. Additionally, on a per share basis, 2025 adjusted funds flow (AFF) is expected to increase to C$204 million from previous guidance of C$69-75 million. Furthermore, the nature of the assets acquired is expected to enhance operational efficiencies to InPlay’s existing Pembina asset base by increasing the scale and contributing to lower decline, higher oil-weighting, and less capital-intensive production.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.