Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Fourth Quarter First Look

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 23, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Mixed Fiscal Year. A weaker macroenvironment globally, mixed with softer technology demand, lower than anticipated return to office trends and, in some quarters, a stronger U.S. dollar led to a decline in net sales from the prior year. However, increases in the Company’s gross and operating margin is attributable to management’s cumulative global price increases and cost reduction initiatives. With the recent announcement of a multi-year restructuring and cost savings program, we expect these increases to continue over the next year.

Results. Net sales for the fourth quarter were $488.6 million compared to $499.4 million last year and above our estimate of $475 million. Comparable sales decreased 4.6%. Net loss for ACCO was $59.4 million, or $0.62/sh, compared to net income of $18.8 million, or $0.20/sh, last year. An $89.5 million impairment charge and an increase in restructuring charges were the primary drivers of the 4Q23 loss. Adjusted net income was $37.5 million, or $0.39 per share, compared with $30.5 million, or $0.32, in 2022.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Ocugen (OCGN) – Ocugen Clinical Showcase Meeting Details OCU400 and Potential Gene Therapy Breakthroughs

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 22, 2024

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Presentations Focused On OCU400. Ocugen held an investor meeting to present details of its gene therapy programs and clinical progress. The presentations included a review of the “Master Regulatory Gene” technology, OCU400 clinical results, and plans for the Phase 3 clinical trial. Next, a panel including the inventor of the technology, two doctors who have treated patients, and a patient discussed their experiences with OCU400.

Important Milestones Are Ahead. The presentations started with a review of the product pipeline progress during 2023 and the milestones ahead in 2024. These included milestones in the clinical trials for OCU400, OCU410, OCU410ST, and NeoCart. The company reiterated its goal of forming a partnership for OCU400 during the coming year. We have not included any up-front payments, milestones, or sales royalties in our models at this time.


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Euroseas (ESEA) – December-quarter Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 22, 2024

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Euroseas reported a 14% year-over-year increase in revenues, net during the quarter ended December 31, 2023 due mainly to the addition of a vessel and increased fleet utilization rates. Shipping rates were largely unchanged from last year and generally predictable given a high charter coverage.

Costs were generally in line with expectations. Drydocking expenses were higher than expected due to the retrofitting of the MV Synergy Busan. Interest and financing costs continue to rise with a $23 million year-over-year increase in debt as the company makes payments on six newbuilds. In total, the company is spending $220 million on the newbuilds with $65 million already paid and an additional $130 million to be financed. Bottom-line results were near expectations.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) – December-quarter preview

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is the only pure-play Capesize ship-owner publicly listed in the US. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of Capesize vessels. The Company’s operating fleet consists of 17 Capesize vessels with an average age of approximately 12 years and aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,011,083 dwt. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands and has executive offices in Glyfada, Greece. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP” and its Class B warrants under “SHIPZ”.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Shipping rates improved at the end of the quarter. At the end of the third quarter, management indicated that it had locked in 60% of estimated operating days at $21,640/day and that at current spot prices, the average TCE rate for the quarter would be $19,480/day. With spot prices rising, the average TCE rate will most likely be closer to $23,000/day. The addition of a new vessel and limited drydocking will mean increased operating days. Raising the TCE rate in our models increase revenues by approximately $4 million.

Shipping rates have fallen in the 2024-1Q due to seasonal factors such as the Chinese New Year and the rain season in Brazil but remain above historical 1Q levels. We have lowered our revenue projection to reflect lower rates and decreased fees from related parties (Seanergy receives revenues for third party ship management which included abnormal gains in 2023-3Q). 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Contract for East West Jones?

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A New Contract. Yesterday, after the market close, Orion filed an 8-K disclosing the entry into a sales contract for its 340 acre East West Jones land parcels previously used by the Company as dredge placement areas. The purchase price is approximately $34 million and closing is anticipated on or before June 14, 2024.

A Modest Reduction. This is not the first time Orion has entered into a transaction for the property. Back in April 2023, Orion entered into a contract to sell the parcels for approximately $36 million. While the $2 million reduction in the sales price is not optimal, we view the monetization of another non-core asset to be a positive.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands (FAT) – Company Receives Wells Notice

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, February 21, 2024

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Wells Notice. In an 8-K filed yesterday, FAT Brands reported that the Company, Chairman Andrew Wiederhorn, and one current and one former officer of the Company each received a Wells Notice from the staff of the SEC. The notice is related to the previously disclosed SEC investigation of the Company. The Company continues to cooperate with the SEC and maintains its actions were appropriate, and intends to pursue the Wells Notice process, including submitting a formal response to the SEC.

What Is a Wells Notice? According to the Cornell Law School Legal Information Institute, “A ‘Wells Notice’ is a letter sent by a securities regulator to a prospective respondent, notifying him of the substance of charges that the regulator intends to bring against the respondent, and affording the respondent with the opportunity to submit a written statement to the ultimate decision maker.”


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – A Multitude of Opportunity

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Review. We reviewed the Company’s 10-K filing as well as went through the conference call transcript again. Both highlight the tremendous amount of opportunity available to the Company. Opportunity that we believe will begin to be realized this year and lead to improved operating performance.

A Key Change. While Kratos always has been open to partnering with prime contractors, the 10-K highlights, in our view, a mindset change in such partnerships. Kratos now will be more willing to enter such partnerships in all areas of the Company’s business when management’s assessment of the opportunities indicates such a partnership is the most favorable opportunity.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kelly Services (KELYA) – Transformation Continued in the Fourth Quarter; Raising PT to $27

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Kelly (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. We’re always thinking about what’s next in the evolving world of work, and we help people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. We directly employ nearly 350,000 people around the world and connect thousands more with work through our global network of talent suppliers and partners in our outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2021 was $4.9 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and let us help with what’s next for you.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q23 Results. Kelly reported revenue of $1,232.2 million, essentially flat y-o-y and down just 1.3% on a constant currency basis. We had estimated $1,220 million. Adjusted net income was $34.1 million or EPS of $0.93, compared to $7 million, or $0.18/sh last year. We had estimated EPS of $0.56. Adjusted EBITDA was $32.5 million, or a 2.6% margin, up from $24.1 million and 2%, respectively, last year. We had forecast $33.8 million.

International Sale. As previously announced, Kelly completed the sale of its International staffing business in early January. This business generated some $810 million of revenue and $120 million of gross profit in 2023.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

EuroDry (EDRY) – Strong results on the heels of fleet expansion and shipping rate improvement

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, February 20, 2024

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Revenues improve with the addition of vessels and higher shipping rates. EuroDry took possession of three ships during the quarter and put them into service, resulting in additional operating days. The average shipping rate of $14.570 rose 20% quarter over quarter. EuroDry continues to be the most sensitive to rate changes of all the shipping companies we follow. 

Expenses went up with more ships, but costs per operating day were flat. Vessel operating and depreciation costs rose with an increase in voyage days. Vessel operating costs per voyage day were $5,421 in the most recent quarter versus $5,343 in the previous quarter and $5,366 in the same period last year. Financing costs rose with the issuance of $32.5 million to finance the acquisition of vessels. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The GEO Group (GEO) – Ending the 2023 Fiscal Year on a Good Note

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 16, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q23 Results. Revenue for the quarter came in at $608.3 million, compared to $620.7 million a year ago. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $129 million, EPS was $0.21, and adjusted EPS $0.29. In the year ago period, GEO reported $145.5 million, $0.28, and $0.34, respectively. We had forecast $600 million, $119.5 million, $0.19, and $0.19, respectively.

Debt Reduction. For the full year, GEO reduced net debt by some $197 million, ending the year with approximately $1.8 billion of net debt. We expect the Company to continue to reduce net debt by $175-$200 million annually.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – A Solid Fourth Quarter; Backlog Continues to Rise

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, February 16, 2024

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q23 Results. Fourth quarter revenue came in at $181.7 million, slightly below our $190 million estimate, due to a delay in some work which has since commenced, but above the $146.7 million in 4Q22. Reported gross margin jumped to 21.3% from a negative last year. Net income came in at $21.6 million, or $0.32/sh, from a loss of $31.2 million, or a loss of $0.47/sh in 4Q22, which was impacted by the write-down of the Terrapin Island. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $40.8 million, up from a $24.2 million loss last year.

Solid Operating Environment. The dredging bid environment remains strong, with proposed increased funding and a number of key capital projects coming to bid in 2024. While the wind and LNG segments are more challenged, we believe both markets will prove fruitful for Great Lakes in the long-term.


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Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Comstock Commences Material Recovery Facility Commissioning; UPLODE 24 on February 28

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Receipt of Final Permit. Comstock Metals received conditional approval from the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection for the processing of waste solar panels and photovoltaics in its new materials recovery facility in Silver Springs, Nevada. With the receipt of all required permits, Comstock Metals may now complete the installation of the process equipment, and test, commission, and start up the material recovery facility. The facility includes proprietary technologies for efficiently crushing, conditioning, extracting, and recycling metal concentrates from photovoltaics.

Supplier Commitments. Comstock Metals is receiving waste panels for processing and has commenced commissioning activities. Comstock Metals continues to secure supplier commitments and is experiencing greater than initially expected inquiries from many different sources of waste panels. Decommissioning end-of-life solar panels is accelerating in the southwest region of the United States where solar panels were adopted early. Because Comstock Metals will receive an upfront disposal fee for handling the end-of-life solar panels, Comstock Metals could begin generating cash flow with revenue recognized once the waste is processed and recycled.


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Saga Communications (SGA) – Provides Fuel To Its Growth

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, February 15, 2024

Saga Communications, Inc. is a broadcast company whose business is primarily devoted to acquiring, developing and operating radio stations. Saga currently owns or operates broadcast properties in 27 markets, including 79 FM and 33 AM radio stations. Saga’s strategy is to operate top billing radio stations in mid sized markets, defined as markets ranked (by market revenues) from 20 to 200. Saga’s radio stations employ a myriad of programming formats, including Active Rock, Adult Album Alternative, Adult Contemporary, Country, Classic Country, Classic Hits, Classic Rock, Contemporary Hits Radio, News/Talk, Oldies and Urban Contemporary. In operating its stations, Saga concentrates on the development of strong decentralized local management, which is responsible for the day-to-day operations of the stations in their market area and is compensated based on their financial performance as well as other performance factors that are deemed to effect the long-term ability of the stations to achieve financial objectives. Saga began operations in 1986 and became a publicly traded company in December 1992. The stock trades on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol “SGA”.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Buys attractive radio station group. Saga plans to purchase Lafayette, IN radio stations WKOA (FM), WKHY (FM), WASK (FM), WXXB (FM), WASK (AM) and W269DJ from Neuhoff Communications in a cash transaction for $5.3 million. The transaction is subject to regulatory approval and is expected to close in May. We view the transaction favorably. 

Attractive market. Lafayette is in line with the company’s target acquisition markets. The stations are located in a growing community with a broad-based economy including a large university (Purdue University), biotech and healthcare services, advanced manufacturing (Caterpillar large engines and Wabash), Aerospace (GE Aviation, SAAB, & Rolls Royce), and Automotive (Subaru) which is expanding.  


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.