DLH Holdings (DLHC) – A CMOP Update


Thursday, February 29, 2024

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

8-K Filing. In an 8-K filing, DLH disclosed the potential loss of one of its VA Consolidated Mail Outpatient Pharmacy (“CMOP”) locations, which accounted for less than 3% of fiscal 2023 consolidated revenue, or about $11 million. According to the filing, on February 22, 2024, DLH was advised that the VA had made an award decision for the Chelmsford CMOP Staffing Services location to a service-disabled veteran owned small business (SDVOSB) unrelated to DLH. Should the VA complete its acquisition process with a final award to an unrelated entity, DLH would no longer perform services at this CMOP location.

Background. To refresh investor memories, DLH was first awarded the CMOP contracts for healthcare logistics and pharmacy services in 2011. At the time, there were nine pharmacy services contracts and seven logistics contracts for the seven geographic locations. The VA has since combined the logistics and pharmacy services in each area, resulting in eight current contracts on which to bid.


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Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Thoughts on UPLODE24


Thursday, February 29, 2024

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

UPLODE 2024. Comstock Inc. recently hosted its UPLODE24 investor webinar which provided an opportunity to hear directly from business leaders associated with Comstock’s business units, along with Quantum Generative Materials (GenMat). More broadly, the event underscored Comstock Inc.’s unique approach to drive innovation to improve business outcomes and accelerate the commercialization of decarbonization technologies.

Key catalysts in 2024. Investors can look forward to an eventful year in 2024 as Comstock Metals commissions its material recovery facility and begins generating cash flow, along with expanding its supplier commitments. We expect Comstock Fuels will move closer to commercialization as it executes commercial agreements for joint development projects and expands, integrates, and commissions a continuous bio-intermediate production system to produce cellulosic ethanol and hydro-deoxygenated bioleum oil. Additionally, external venture capital funding for Quantum Generative Materials could put a spotlight on the value of Comstock’s investment. Lastly, disposition of Comstock’s remaining Green Li-ion preferred shares and properties in Silver Springs, Nevada could provide proceeds of up to $60 million that could significantly enhance the company’s financial flexibility.


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Cumulus Media (CMLS) – A Foggy View For 2024


Wednesday, February 28, 2024

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Meets expectations. The company reported revenue of $221.3 million, which was in-line with our estimate of $220.6 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $22.8 million, beating our estimate of $20.5 million by 11.2%. Notably, digital revenues performed strongly in the quarter, growing 5.0% from the prior year period. 

Q1 off to a lackluster start. Management provided total company advertising pacings to be down low single digits in the first quarter. While this is a significant sequential improvement from the 11.9% decrease in Q4 (which reflected the absence of Political), it is lackluster. The first quarter does not benefit from Political advertising, but the lackluster, high margin core and Network advertising will take a toll on margins. As such, we are lowering our Q1 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates. 


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – A Capital Raise


Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Capital Raise. After the market close on Thursday, Kratos announced the pricing of an underwritten offering of 16,666,667 shares of its common stock at a public offering price of $18.00 per share. The net proceeds to Kratos from the offering, after deducting underwriting discounts and commissions, are expected to be approximately $288 million. Kratos also granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 2,500,000 shares of common stock. All of the shares in the offering are to be sold by Kratos. The offering is expected to close on February 27, 2024, subject to customary closing conditions. We would note Noble Capital was part of the underwriting group.

Uses. Kratos expects to use the net proceeds to facilitate its long-term strategy, including potential investment in facilities, expanding manufacturing capacity, and anticipated capital expenditures for expansion of current sole-source/single award programs and high probability pipeline opportunities. Other uses are to further strengthen the Company’s balance sheet in anticipation of upcoming customer and partner decisions and source selection on additional large, new program and contract opportunities and for general corporate purposes, including paydown of debt.


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Energy Fuels (UUUU) – Investment premise starting to become reality


Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Energy Fuels is a leading U.S.-based uranium mining company, supplying U3O8 to major nuclear utilities. Energy Fuels also produces vanadium from certain of its projects, as market conditions warrant, and is ramping up commercial-scale production of REE carbonate. Its corporate offices are in Lakewood, Colorado, near Denver, and all its assets and employees are in the United States. Energy Fuels holds three of America’s key uranium production centers: the White Mesa Mill in Utah, the Nichols Ranch in-situ recovery (“ISR”) Project in Wyoming, and the Alta Mesa ISR Project in Texas. The White Mesa Mill is the only conventional uranium mill operating in the U.S. today, has a licensed capacity of over 8 million pounds of U3O8 per year, has the ability to produce vanadium when market conditions warrant, as well as REE carbonate from various uranium-bearing ores. The Nichols Ranch ISR Project is on standby and has a licensed capacity of 2 million pounds of U3O8 per year. The Alta Mesa ISR Project is also on standby and has a licensed capacity of 1.5 million pounds of U3O8 per year. In addition to the above production facilities, Energy Fuels also has one of the largest NI 43-101 compliant uranium resource portfolios in the U.S. and several uranium and uranium/vanadium mining projects on standby and in various stages of permitting and development. The primary trading market for Energy Fuels’ common shares is the NYSE American under the trading symbol “UUUU,” and the Company’s common shares are also listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “EFR.” Energy Fuels’ website is www.energyfuels.com.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Energy Fuels reported financial results for the quarter and the year that were largely expected. Earnings for 2024 were $99.8 million or $0.62 per share. However, the positive results were due to a $119 million or $0.73 per share nonrecurring gain on the sale of property. Excluding the sale, the company would have reported a $20 million or $0.12 per share loss for the year. Quarterly losses were slightly higher than expected on limited sales.

Energy Fuel’s liquidity position has grown dramatically in recent quarters. As of December 31, 2023, the company had $222.34 million of working capital and no debt. With such a large liquidity position, the company is well positioned to expand operations without seeking external financing. This includes restarting uranium mining operations but could also fund all or most of the proposed REE Oxide circuit expansion.


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ACCO Brands (ACCO) – 4Q Post Call Commentary


Tuesday, February 27, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Setting the Table. ACCO management had laid out a number of key priorities at the beginning of 2023 to set the Company on a path of sustainable, profitable growth. The key elements of the program were achieved. Gross margin improved 428 basis points y-o-y, restructuring efforts are right-sizing SG&A and the facility footprint, inventory was reduced by $68 million, and strong FCF enabled debt to be reduced by $88 million.

But Top Line Challenges Remain. Comparable revenue fell 6.5% y-o-y. Weak computer and gaming accessory sales, lower than expected “return-to-office” trends, and tight inventory management by customers all impacted the top line. We expect a number of these challenges to reverse course in 2024, although the pace will be measured and likely benefit 2H24. 


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Gray Television (GTN) – Delivers Solid Fourth Quarter Results.


Monday, February 26, 2024

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 Results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $864.0 million, edging our estimate of $857.0 million by 0.8%. Notably, Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was a strong $216.0 million, surpassing our estimate of $189.0 million by 14.3%. The results are illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. The quarter was driven by lower than expected operating expenses. Importantly, the company is anticipating a favorable influx of high margin political revenue in 2024.

2024 outlook. In our view, the company stands to benefit from several favorable factors in 2024. Notably, we are forecasting $655.0 million in high margin political revenue for full year 2024, which should aid the company in its debt reduction efforts. Additionally, the company’s production companies are guided to produce $110.0 million in revenue in 2024, a step up from $86 million in 2023. We believe there could be positive upside in our 2024 estimates.


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E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Strong Reaction To A Decent Quarter


Monday, February 26, 2024

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Exceeds Q4 estimates. Q4 was solid, beating our revenue estimate by 3.8% and our adj. EBITDA estimate by 13.4%. Revenues were down 9.6% to $615.8 million due to the absence of year earlier Political and weak National advertising. Recent cost initiatives allowed the company to improve adj. EBITDA margins to 19.1% versus our 17.5% estimate.

Improving advertising trends. The company reported a 1% increase in Core advertising with a favorable outlook of flat to up 1% for the upcoming quarter. Furthermore, its Network business appears to be on the mend, with significantly higher (30%) scatter prices heading into an upfront season. Lastly, management provided guidance for Political that was higher than our estimate to a range of $210 million to $250 million. 


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Schwazze (SHWZ) – A Management Change


Monday, February 26, 2024

Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CEO Steps Away. Friday, Schwazze announced Nirup Krishnamurthy’s resignation as Schwazze Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board of Directors, effective February 20, 2024, due to personal reasons. In his place, Forrest Hoffmaster, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer, has been appointed to the additional role of interim CEO.

Forrest Hoffmaster. Mr. Hoffmaster joined the Company in January 2023, bringing over 30 years of executive experience in finance and operations for both public and private companies. Prior to Schwazze, Mr. Hoffmaster served as CEO of New Seasons Market, a specialty gourmet food retailer, where he navigated the company through one of the most disruptive periods in the retail grocery industry. Under his leadership, Mr. Hoffmaster implemented a focused growth and cost optimization program, enabling the company to grow EBITDA by over 30% in two years. Prior to New Seasons Market, Forrest held leadership positions with other leading grocers, including Whole Foods Market and H-E-B.


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Lifeway Foods (LWAY) – Moving to Outperform, $14 PT


Monday, February 26, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Upgrade to Outperform. We are upgrading our rating on Lifeway shares to Outperform from Market Perform with a $14 price target. Since peaking on November 14th at an intra-day high of $17.33, LWAY shares have drifted lower, closing Friday at $10.51, modestly above the lowest closing price since mid-November of $9.38.

A Look Back. LWAY shares have been on a roller coaster ride since mid-August 2023, driven by a combination of improving operational performance, including a number of record quarters, and takeover speculation, in our view. The shares ran up from $6.50 in mid-August to $12.40 by mid-September, back below $10 by the end of September, back above $12 by mid-November, plunging to $9.38 on November 13th before hitting a 52-week high of $17.33 ten days later. Since the 52-week high, the shares have drifted lower. Notably, during the run up, ADV often exceeded 100,000 shares per day, compared to less than 20,000 prior to the run up. More recently, ADV has settled in the 20,000-40,000 range.


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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – THIO-101 Patient Enrollment Completed Ahead Of Schedule


Friday, February 23, 2024

MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Enrollment In THIO-101 Has Been Completed. MAIA announced that it has completed enrollment of the Part B of the Phase 2 THIO-101 clinical trial. Allowing time for patient follow-up and analysis, the preliminary data announcement is expected in 2H24. This is ahead of schedule, shortening our expected development timeframe.

Optimal Dose Selection Allowed Earlier Completion. The THIO-101 trial was designed with several stages. Part A was a lead-in to verify the safety seen in earlier trials. Part B was designed to find the optimal dose, with patients receiving doses of 60mg, 180mg, or 360mg. In December 2023, the 180mg dose was selected and new patients were only enrolled at 180mg. This allowed Part B to reach the target enrollment ahead of schedule.


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Cumulus Media (CMLS) – Reaches For Its Pill Box


Friday, February 23, 2024

Cumulus Media (NASDAQ: CMLS) is an audio-first media company delivering premium content to over a quarter billion people every month — wherever and whenever they want it. Cumulus Media engages listeners with high-quality local programming through 406 owned-and-operated radio stations across 86 markets; delivers nationally-syndicated sports, news, talk, and entertainment programming from iconic brands including the NFL, the NCAA, the Masters, CNN, the AP, the Academy of Country Music Awards, and many other world-class partners across more than 9,500 affiliated stations through Westwood One, the largest audio network in America; and inspires listeners through the Cumulus Podcast Network, its rapidly growing network of original podcasts that are smart, entertaining and thought-provoking. Cumulus Media provides advertisers with personal connections, local impact and national reach through broadcast and on-demand digital, mobile, social, and voice-activated platforms, as well as integrated digital marketing services, powerful influencers, full-service audio solutions, industry-leading research and insights, and live event experiences. Cumulus Media is the only audio media company to provide marketers with local and national advertising performance guarantees. For more information visit www.cumulusmedia.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Announces a “poison pill.” Cumulus Media adopted a limited-duration shareholder rights plan with the goal of discouraging an investor from increasing its stake beyond 15% of total shares outstanding. We view the move as shareholder friendly given that it prevents the investment group from a “creeping,” opportunistic takeover of the company at depressed stock valuations. 

What does the pill do? The plan is to issue one right for each share of Class A and Class B common stock as of the close of business March 4, 2024. The right will become exercisable if any person or affiliate group acquires 15% or more of the company’s stock. Each right holder will be able to acquire shares at a 50% discount or exchange the right for common stock. The move would significantly dilute the investor’s interest and make a takeover of the company prohibitively expensive. 


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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Lowering 2024 Estimates; Rating Remains an Outperform


Friday, February 23, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updating our financial model. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $846.9 million and $3.98 from $935.9 million and $4.64, respectively. Our revisions are due mostly to changes in and our treatment of coal royalty revenue and equity method investment income. In our model, coal royalty revenues are included in other revenues. Because equity method investment income fluctuates, we decided not to include it in our forward estimates for the time being. Lastly, we updated our oil and gas price deck which reflects modestly lower forward gas prices.

A strong growth track record. In 1999, the partnership went public in an initial public offering. In 2000, ARLP generated revenue of $363.5 million, EBITDA of $71.3 million and net income of $15.6 million or $0.98 per unit. In 2023, the partnership generated revenue of $2.6 billion, EBITDA of $933.1 million and net income of $636.2 million or $4.81 per unit. While ARLP’s coal sales increased from 15.0 million tons to 34.4 million tons in the intervening years, ARLP’s revenue streams have also become more diversified.


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