Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

One Stop Systems (OSS) – Transition is Progressing

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Ongoing Transition. The transition of OSS towards opportunities in growing defense and commercial markets and away from the legacy media company is ongoing, although the uncertain economic environment and delayed federal government budget approvals are slowing the process down. Nonetheless, we expect OSS to return to y-o-y revenue growth in the second half. Notably, book-to-bill in the OSS segment was 1.1x for the quarter.

1Q24 Results. Revenue of $12.7 million declined 24.6%, partly due to the absence of Disguise revenue but also delays in orders from a key customer. Gross margin of 29.4% declined 80bp y-o-y. OSS reported a GAAP net loss of $1.34 million, or a loss of $0.06/sh and an adjusted loss of $0.04/sh, compared to a net loss of $400,500, or a loss of $0.02/sh and an adjusted breakeven, in 1Q23. We had estimated revenue of $12.5 million, a GAAP loss of $0.07/sh, and adjusted loss of $0.04/sh.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – A Closer Look at the Great Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Performance Drivers. Contributing to the first quarter’s strong performance included particularly solid performance in unmanned systems, air defense, propulsion systems, turbine technologies, and the microwave electronics businesses, as well as production and delivery on certain programs that were executed earlier in the year than initially expected.

Events Favor Kratos. With the federal budget finally passed, increased funding has been allocated to areas which are right in Kratos’ sweet spot while ongoing world events, especially in the Ukraine and Middle East are highlighting the need for Kratos products, both of which we believe will drive growth for the Company.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Kelly Services (KELYA) – First Look at 1Q24

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

Kelly (Nasdaq: KELYA, KELYB) connects talented people to companies in need of their skills in areas including Science, Engineering, Education, Office, Contact Center, Light Industrial, and more. We’re always thinking about what’s next in the evolving world of work, and we help people ditch the script on old ways of thinking and embrace the value of all workstyles in the workplace. We directly employ nearly 350,000 people around the world and connect thousands more with work through our global network of talent suppliers and partners in our outsourcing and consulting practice. Revenue in 2021 was $4.9 billion. Visit kellyservices.com and let us help with what’s next for you.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q24. There are a lot of moving parts, with the sale of the European staffing business and some one-time expenses. On an organic basis, revenue declined 2.6% y-o-y to $945.6 million due to ongoing soft demand, although the Education segment grew 16.2% y-o-y. Adjusted EBITDA margin was up 110bp to 3.2% driven by the sale of the European business and ongoing expenses reduction initiatives. Adjusted net earnings rose to $20.3 million, or $0.56/sh, from $15.9 million, or $0.42/sh in 1Q23.

GAAP Results. Revenue of $1.05 billion declined 17.6% (17.7% decline on constant currency basis) from last year. Gross profit rate was down 30bp to 19.7% y-o-y with mix and lower permanent placement fees offsetting the benefit from the sale of the European staffing business. Operating earnings of $26.8 million rose 150.2%. Net income was $25.8 million, or $0.70/sh, versus $10.9 million, or $0.29/sh in the prior year.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Information Services Group (III) – A Peek into First Quarter Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Revenue was reported at $64.3 million, down 18% from $78.5 million in the previous year. We estimated revenue of $66 million. Continued slower client decision making meant revenue is being pushed into later quarters. Net loss for the quarter was $3.4 million, or a loss of $0.07 per share, compared to net income of $3.5 million, or $0.07 per share last year. We estimated a net loss of $0.7 million, or a loss of $0.01 per share.

Recurring Revenue and Tango. Recurring revenues for the Company continue to grow, accounting for about half of ISG’s revenues in 1Q24. For the trailing 12 months, recurring revenues totaled $126 million, up 10% from the previous 12-month period. We expect recurring revenues to continue to grow with management’s focus on growing platforms such as ISG GovernX and ISG ProBenchmark. With the launch of the next-gen sourcing platform ISG Tango in March, the Company is already seeing the platform gaining interest, as over $2.6 billion of contract value is already running on the platform.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Haynes International (HAYN) – Raw Material Headwinds Persist

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Second quarter financial results. Haynes reported second-quarter fiscal 2024 net income of $8.6 million or $0.66 per share compared to $12.3 million or $0.96 per share during the prior year period. Adjusted EBITDA was $18.0 million compared to $22.4 million during the prior year period and declined as a percentage of net revenues. While the company experienced revenue growth in its core aerospace and industrial gas turbine markets, the quarter was negatively impacted by decreasing nickel prices which reduced gross margins, along with lingering impacts from the unplanned hot mill outage in the first quarter. The estimated negative impact from raw material volatility in the second quarter was $5.3 million.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $79.3 million and $3.13 from $84.8 million and $3.50, respectively. The revisions reflect recent earnings results and lower margins in the second half of the year. Our 2025 EBITDA and EPS estimates were reduced to $103.9 million and $4.40 from $104.5 million and $4.45.


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Harte Hanks (HHS) – Solid Start To The Year

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

Harte Hanks (NASDAQ: HHS) is a leading global customer experience company whose mission is to partner with clients to provide them with CX strategy, data-driven analytics and actionable insights combined with seamless program execution to better understand, attract, and engage their customers. Using its unparalleled resources and award-winning talent in the areas of Customer Care, Fulfillment and Logistics, and Marketing Services, Harte Hanks has a proven track record of driving results for some of the world’s premier brands including Bank of America, GlaxoSmithKline, Unilever, Pfizer, HBOMax, Volvo, Ford, FedEx, Midea, Sony, and IBM among others. Headquartered in Chelmsford, Massachusetts , Harte Hanks has over 2,500 employees in offices across the Americas, Europe and Asia Pacific .

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overachieves Q1 expectations. The company reported Q1 revenue of $45.4 million, beating our estimate of $44.8 million by 1.4%. Adj. EBITDA was $2.8 million, which beat our estimate of $2.1 million as illustrated in Figure #1 Results. Notably, the quarter was driven by favorable y-o-y revenue growth in the customer care and sales services segments. 

Segment performance. Notably, the company’s sales services segment recorded revenue of $4.7 million in Q1, a significant step up from $2.8 million last year. Customer Care also had a strong quarter, recording $12.4 million in revenue, up from $11.6 million in the prior year period. The company appears to have positive momentum heading into the second quarter. 


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GoHealth, Inc. (GOCO) – Q1 Illustrates Business Model Integrity

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $185.6 million, in line with our estimate of $183.0 million. Adj. EBITDA of $26.9 million was below our forecast of $30.4 million. Management indicated that market dynamics in Q1, which featured the Medicare Advantage Open Enrollment Period, were fairly consistent with the Annual Enrollment Period in Q4.

Demonstrating model integrity. During the quarter, the company reaffirmed 94,000 health insurance policies, even though such outcomes do not generate incremental revenue for the company. In our view, this serves to highlight the company’s commitment to putting the consumer first and we believe the company could be rewarded for this in the long run.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP) – Lackluster Near Term Revenue Picture

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

The E.W. Scripps Company (NASDAQ: SSP) is a diversified media company focused on creating a better-informed world. As one of the nation’s largest local TV broadcasters, Scripps serves communities with quality, objective local journalism and operates a portfolio of 61 stations in 41 markets. The Scripps Networks reach nearly every American through the national news outlets Court TV and Newsy and popular entertainment brands ION, Bounce, Defy TV, Grit, ION Mystery, Laff and TrueReal. Scripps is the nation’s largest holder of broadcast spectrum. Scripps runs an award-winning investigative reporting newsroom in Washington, D.C., and is the longtime steward of the Scripps National Spelling Bee. Founded in 1878, Scripps has held for decades to the motto, “Give light and the people will find their own way.”

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Favorable Q1 results. Revenues were a little lighter than what we were looking for at $561.5 million versus our $571.0 estimate, but adj. EBITDA was better than expected. Adj. EBITDA benefited from stronger than expected high margin Political advertising, $15.2 million versus our $6.5 million estimate. As such, adj. EBITDA of $91.8 million was better than our $82.9 million estimate. 

Raises Political guide. Given the Political advertising strength, management raised full year 2024 Political advertising revenue guide from $210 million to $250 million to a range of $240 million to $270 million. Our previous estimate was $225 million. Notably, the high end of the range would exceed that of the last presidential election cycle in 2020 at $265 million. 


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Cadrenal Therapeutics (CVKD) – 1Q24 Reported With Preparations Continuing For Tecarfarin Phase 3

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, May 10, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Cadrenal Therapeutics Reported 1Q2024. Cadrenal announced a 1Q24 loss of $1.7 million or $(0.10) per share. The company continues to prepare for the Phase 3 clinical trial testing tecarfarin, its anticoagulant, in patients having atrial fibrillation associated with end stage renal disease (AFib with ESRD). This has included hiring a Chief Operating Officer and entering into manufacturing contracts for clinical trial supplies and materials. The cash balance on December 31 was $6.6 million.

Tecarfarin Received Its Second Orphan Drug Designation. As discussed in our Research Note on April 12, the FDA granted Orphan Drug designation for tecarfarin as an anticoagulant in patients with implanted mechanical circulatory support devices. This includes patients with ventricular assist devices (VADs) and total artificial hearts. The lead indication, AFib with ESRD,  has also received Orphan Drug designation.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

PDS Biotechnology (PDSB) – PDS Holds KOL Event and Announces New Trial Design

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 09, 2024

PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Trial Design Will Test Two Drugs Against Standard Of Care. PDS Biotech held a KOL event featuring two prominent oncologists to discuss head and neck cancer and its clinical program data. The presentations included a review of current treatments and its two Phase 2 studies. The new Phase 3 study design was announced, now planned with three arms to test Versamune HPV with Keytruda, Versamune HPV and PDS01ADC with Keytruda, and Keytruda alone.

Phase 2 Trials Greatly Improved Patient Outcomes. The Phase 2 VERSATILE-002 trial testing Versamune HPV with Keytruda had strong improvements over current treatments in several clinical endpoints. During 2023, PDS discussed the path to approval for Versamune with the FDA. This led to design of the Phase 3 VERSATILE-003 trial testing the two-drug combination, similar to VERSATILE-002.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF) – California Joins the TerraSante Approved List

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another Approval. The Company announced receipt of the California Department of Food Agriculture registration approval for its TerraSante product. MustGrow also received organic certification from California’s Organic Input Material (OIM) Program, specific certification for California. The certification is a requirement for organic products to be sold in California and goes beyond MustGrow’s existing Organic OMRI Listed certifications. California now joins Washington and Oregon as states to authorize product sales of TerraSante.

OIM Program. According to the California Department of Food Agriculture, the OIM program registers materials used for fertilization of organic crops and food production. The material is either bulk or packaged and excludes pesticides. The program is mandated by the Legislature with support from the industry.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look at 1Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 09, 2024

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Total revenue was $500.7 million for the quarter compared to $458.0 million in the prior year. This exceeded our expectations of $478 million. All of CoreCivic’s segments experienced growth over the prior year due to higher populations at the federal, state, and local populations. Another driver was revenue from ICE increasing from the prior year, as last year had Title 42 still enacted. Net income was $9.5 million, or $0.08/sh, from $12.4 million, or $0.11, last year. We estimated net income of $21.7 million or $0.19 per diluted share. Adjusted EPS was $0.25 for 1Q24, excluding one-time costs associated with the debt refinancing.

Debt Refinancing Completed and Share Repurchases. CoreCivic completed its registered public debt offering of $500 million on March 12, 2024. The offering, in conjunction with the Company’s revolving credit facility, paid off CoreCivic’s senior unsecured notes due 2026. The Company repurchased 2.7 million shares of its common stock during the quarter at an aggregate purchase price of $39.4 million, or approximately $14.59 per share.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – A Deeper Look into 1Q24 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Performance. Limited drydockings during the quarter and record backlog led the charge in a strong first quarter. The Galveston Island, the Company’s new hopper dredge, also started operations during the quarter, contributing to the performance. The record backlog, consisting mostly of capital projects which carry higher margin, provides Great Lakes with revenue visibility throughout the fiscal year and improved margins, in our view.

Improved Environment. With the passage of the budget, the overall dredging environment has improved, in our view. We expect to see an uptick in project awards in the second and third quarters, with a couple of major capital projects to be included. Great Lakes is well positioned to win its fair share of the awards.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.