Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Moving to Outperform. We are raising our rating on LWAY shares to Outperform from Market Perform, with a $20 price target. LWAY shares fell from a 52-week high of $28.61 on May 10th to $15.19 as of yesterday’s close. We believe the sell-off to be too swift and dramatic given the Company’s recent strong operating performance.
Behind the Decline. Without any news to point to, we believe a combination of factors caused the stock price decline. First is as simple as profit taking. Second is the insider selling. Since the beginning of May, both Ludmila and Julie Smolyansky have sold shares of LWAY. Third, a change in sentiment regarding a possible sale of the Company. And fourth, projected increased milk prices, a key component of COGS.
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Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Data From Both Products Shows Clinical Progress. Unicycive presented data at the European Renal Association (ERA) Congress for OLC and UNI-494, its two products currently in clinical development. Earlier this month, the company presented data from its OLC bioequivalence study and a market survey study on phosphate binder compliance at the National Kidney Foundation Spring Clinical Meeting.
OLC Clinical Data Presented At National Kidney Foundation Meeting. Unicycive presented data from its Phase 1 bioequivalence study comparing OLC with lanthanum carbonate, the active compound in the phosphate binder Fosrenol. The second poster presented data from a survey of renal dieticians who help manage patients’ diet and phosphate levels. The survey is consistent with prior data showing that daily pill burden is a factor in patient compliance, and that OLC’s reduced pill burden could lead to better compliance and patient outcomes.
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Resources Connection, Inc. provides agile consulting services in North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company offers finance and accounting services, including process transformation and optimization, financial reporting and analysis, technical and operational accounting, merger and acquisition due diligence and integration, audit readiness, preparation and response, implementation of new accounting standards, and remediation support. It also provides information management services, such as program and project management, business and technology integration, data strategy, and business performance management. In addition, the company offers corporate advisory, strategic communications, and restructuring services; and corporate governance, risk, and compliance management services, such as contract and regulatory compliance, enterprise risk management, internal controls management, and operation and information technology (IT) audits. Further, it provides supply chain management services comprising strategy development, procurement and supplier management, logistics and materials management, supply chain planning and forecasting, and unique device identification compliance; and human capital services, including change management, organization development and effectiveness, compensation and incentive plan strategies, and optimization of human resources technology and operations. Additionally, the company offers legal and regulatory supporting services for commercial transactions, global compliance initiatives, law department operations, and law department business strategies and analytics. It also provides policyIQ, a proprietary cloud-based governance, risk, and compliance software application. The company was formerly known as RC Transaction Corp. and changed its name to Resources Connection, Inc. in August 2000. Resources Connection, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of Resources Connection, Inc. (RGP) with an Outperform rating and a $15 price target. We view RGP as a disruptor in the rapidly evolving management consulting field focused on improving outcomes for both its consulting clients as well as staff, be it internal or external.
Who Is Resources Connection? Resources Connection is a global consulting firm focused on project execution services that power clients’ operational needs and change initiatives utilizing on-demand, experienced, and diverse talent. As a next-generation human capital partner, RGP specializes in co-delivery of enterprise initiatives typically precipitated by business transformation, strategic transactions, or regulatory change.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Raising our rating to Outperform. With two tranches of its recently announced equity financing closed, Aurania is well positioned to execute its 2024 exploration program and secure a joint venture or strategic partner to advance its project in Ecuador. To date, Aurania’s exploration and drilling activities have underscored the project’s rich mineral potential for epithermal gold, porphyry copper, sediment-hosted copper-silver and silver-zinc mineralization.
Private placement financing. Aurania Resources closed the first and second tranches of its private placement of up to 20,000,000 units for gross proceeds of up to C$4,000,000. In aggregate, 15,094,112 units were sold at a price of C$0.20 per unit for total gross proceeds of C$3,018,822.40. The company expects to close the third and final tranche soon. The proceeds will fund exploration and target refinement at the Kuri-Yawi target area in Ecuador, along with general working capital needs.
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Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Divestiture strategy coming to fruition. During 2024, the company made significant progress in an organizational transformation long in the making. After its spinoff from Xerox in 2017, the company had plans to become a more streamlined business. But, it is the current management team that has successfully executed several key divestitures. In our view, the company is on track to become more efficient, with a healthier balance sheet, and with attractive revenue and cash flow growth.
Meeting proceeds target. On May 2, 2024, the company announced that is has agreed to sell its Casualty Claims Solutions business (related to workers’ comp) to MedRisk for $240 million in cash. Notably, we believe the company has now announced the bulk of its divestitures and is in line to achieve its goal of $600-$800 million of net divestiture proceeds. On a gross basis, the company is expecting roughly $900 million in proceeds.
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EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Voyage days were down due to drydocking and damage. Two vessels were drydocked, removing the ships from 52 days of service. A damaged boiler on one of the vessels took the ship offline 18 days longer than expected. Decreased utilization meant lower-than-expected revenues.
Drydocking also led to higher costs. Costs rose due to increased drydocking. Fortunately, the boiler repairs will be covered by insurance (not lost days however). Financing costs declined with debt repayment and are poised to drop lower as debt repayments decrease.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Contract Resigned. Yesterday, Comtech announced that the Commonwealth of Massachusetts approved the execution of a contract with Comtech to continue operations and maintenance of its Next Generation 911 system within the state. The contract follows the renewal of the Washington contract earlier in the year.
Some Needed Good News. Given the recent negative news, the renewal of the Massachusetts contract is some welcomed good news. Significantly, the Massachusetts announcement, combined with the earlier Washington announcement, indicates clients are continuing to work with Comtech even given the turmoil. We view this positively.
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CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Ability to Buy More Shares. On Monday, CoreCivic filed a form 8-K stating that on May 16, 2024, the Board of Directors authorized an increase of $125 million to the Company’s share repurchase program. The approval raised the overall program to $350 million of common stock. We believe the increase continues management’s philosophy of being opportunistic in repurchases while maintaining a leverage goal of 2.25x-2.75x.
Program’s History. The Board originally approved the share repurchase program in May 2022 for $150 million. The program has since been increased twice, once in August 2022 to $225 million, and now in Monday’s filing. Since the beginning of the program, management has repurchased 13.3 million shares at an average price of approximately $11.99 per share for a total purchase price of $159.3 million. Including the additional authorization, there is approximately $190.7 million remaining under the program.
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Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Weak start to the year, largely expected. Q1 revenues declined 63% to $2.2 million, in line with our expectations. The revenue decline reflected the absence of merchandise sales as the company shifted toward a capital light, licensing model. The full benefits of this shift is expected to be reflected in second half results. Adj. EBITDA loss of $1.6 million was a little heavier than our $1.1 million loss estimate.
Let go of the LOGO? The soft licensing revenue, which was down 1.7% yoy to $2.2 million reflected, in part, challenged revenue at LOGO by Lori Goldstein. LOGO sales have struggled, flat yoy in the quarter, as the popular talent has had scheduling issues and has not returned to regular studio production. Management indicated that it is exploring the disposition of the brand.
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Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile application. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Italy, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence in the region.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of €53.0 million, beating our estimate of €45.0 million by 17.8%. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was positive €1.7 million, which beat our estimate of a loss of €1.0 million. Notably, the company grew revenue by 34% from the comparable prior year quarter.
Momentum in Mexico and Spain. Strong revenue growth in Mexico (+51%) and Spain (+21%) fueled the revenue outperformance. Some significant developments; the company grew its total active customer base by 25% in both markets and it obtained regulatory approval for operations in the province of Mendoza, Argentina. In our view, the company is poised to carry strong revenue momentum through 2024 and should swing toward positive cash flow on a full-year basis.
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Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $14.1 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $1.9 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $24.0 million and $2.8 million, respectively. Notably, the company deferred $5.5 million of revenue in the quarter, which contributed to the shortfall. We expect revenue deferrals and the technology gap to cause some noise in operating results during 2024.
Technology gap. Importantly, we believe there is a technology gap between ASA and some of the user base’s PC equipment, which dampened sales of the game. We believe the closing of the technology gap could also lead to a more steady sales profile of the game over a longer period of time as users upgrade their hardware and migrate to ASA.
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ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Location, location. Alliance is the largest coal producer in the eastern U.S. with operations in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia. The partnership produces a diverse range of thermal coals with high heat content and benefits from access to both domestic and export markets. With demand for electricity expected to grow, Alliance is well-positioned to increase its market share despite efforts to curb coal-fired generation and coal’s declining share of the electricity generation market. Closure dates for coal-fired power plants are being delayed due to growing energy demand and reliability concerns.
Trouble brewing in the Powder River Basin (PRB)? Last week the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) proposed ending federal coal leasing in the Powder River Basin. The PRB includes Wyoming and Montana and accounted for 44% of the coal produced in the United States in 2022. The Bureau expects coal production in Wyoming to continue through 2041 under existing leases. While we expect the ruling to be challenged, it underscores the uncertainty and challenges facing coal mining operations on federally leased lands. The BLM manages public land in the western United States. In our view, coal could turn into an increasingly scarce resource in the United States which could be supportive of pricing.
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Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
1Q24 Results. Revenue of $41.6 million was up 4% y-o-y, driven by new store growth. Gross margin declined to 43.1% from 54.6% due to pricing pressure in New Mexico and a higher mix of lower margined medical sales. Schwazze reported an operating loss of $2.7 million compared to $5.6 million of operating profit in 1Q23. GAAP net loss totaled $18.2 million, or a loss of $0.24/sh, versus essentially breakeven last year. We had estimated revenue of $42.5 million and a net loss of $11.6 million, or a loss of $0.16/sh.
Environment Still Challenging. The Colorado and New Mexico markets remain some of the most competitive cannabis markets in the country. A supply/demand situation still coming into balance and too many retail locations will continue to impact both markets in the near-term.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
