Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Raising Price Target

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Raising Price Target. With KTOS shares hitting our prior $22 price target, we are raising our price target to $26. We are maintaining our Outperform rating on the shares. We view the recent awards and demonstrations as further confirmation of the Kratos strategy in providing leading edge disruptive technology products and systems.

CR Concern. Although we remain confident in the long-term success of the Company, the potential for another extended Continuing Resolution remains a concern in the near-term. The Federal government’s fiscal year ends September 30th and we do not expect a 2025 budget to be passed before then. The concern is for an extended CR, like we had in fiscal 2024, which pushes new awards and contracts to the right.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

SelectQuote (SLQT) – Taking Steps for the Long Term

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, September 16, 2024

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong fiscal Q4. SelectQuote’s fiscal Q4 revenue of $307.2 million and adj. EBITDA of $14.4 million exceeded our estimates of $271.3 million and a loss of $2.2 million, respectively.  In our view, the strong performance demonstrated the power of the company’s synergistic business model, which serves consumers’ needs both for insurance policies and pharmacy services. 

Pharmacy momentum. Total revenue grew an impressive 38% over the prior year period, driven largely by the company’s Healthcare Services segment, which is comprised primarily of SelectRx (home-direct pharmacy business). Healthcare Services revenue was up roughly 75%, year-over-year with SelectRx membership growing to approximately 82,000, up from roughly 75,000 at the end of fiscal Q3. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Revising Estimates Upward; Raising Price Target

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, September 16, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $105.8 million, which was in line with our $105.0 million estimate. Due to lower than expected Selling & Marketing Expenses and efficiency initiatives, adj. EBITDA was $16.2 million, far better than our $0.9 million estimate. Selling & Marketing expenses were roughly $11 million lower than expected, accounting for the largest portion of the sizable “beat”.

PC picking up Steam. Notably, management highlighted the launch of Pixel Gun 3D PC Edition to the Steam platform, the largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming. The launch of Pixel Gun 3D on Steam and a solid quarter for Hero Wars: Dominion Era led to PC revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, up from 38% in the prior year period. The addition of Steam is viewed favorably given that PC players tend to spend more money and time playing than mobile users.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FreightCar America (RAIL) – Raising Price Target Based on Expected Lower Cost of Capital

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, September 16, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Pure play manufacturer. FreightCar America, Inc. is a diversified manufacturer of railroad cars and rail car components. The company designs and manufactures a broad variety of railroad car types for the transportation of bulk commodities and containerized freight products primarily in North America. The company recently reported strong second-quarter financial results and appears poised for greater scale and margin expansion as it increases its market share and expands its product suite.

Expected redemption of high-cost preferred stock. We have assumed the company could redeem its high-cost preferred shares using a private credit term loan. For the sake of simplicity, we have assumed this occurs just prior to 2025. Based on the company’s strong cash flow profile and outlook, we estimate the rate on a $100 million private credit term loan could approximate the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) plus 600 basis points or 11.33%. We note that the amount of the term loan and the interest rate could vary from our estimates. If the loan amount or interest rate is lower, interest expense could be lower. 


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MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF) – Onto the East Coast

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, September 12, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Another Approval. Following the approval from the state of Arizona late last month, MustGrow announced receipt from the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) for the registration approval of its TerraSante product. Florida now becomes the sixth state to approve the Company’s product alongside Arizona, Idaho, California, Oregon, and Washington.

Florida Market. The state consists of around 47,300 farms which utilized 9.7 million acres, 5,000 farms of which had sales exceeding $100,000 according to the FDACS. Florida ranked first in 2022 in value of the production of bell peppers, Valencia oranges, grapefruit, sugarcane, fresh market tomatoes, and watermelons. The average farm size in the state is around 205 acres. The state adds plenty of opportunity to MustGrow’s expanding pipeline and we expect more states to be added in the future.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – New THIO Data Shows Improved Survival and Meets Trial Goals

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, September 12, 2024

MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Data Announced For Additional Patients. MAIA announced new interim data from its Phase 2 THIO-101 open-label trial testing the combination of THIO and Libtayo in non-small cell lung cancer. The new data shows that as of August 1, 2024, 16 patients had passed the 12-month survival point with reported median survival of 10.2 months. This greatly exceeds published data for comparable patients with survival of 5.8 months.

THIO-101 Treated Third-Line Patients With Advanced Disease. Patients in the trial had advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and were treated with the combination of THIO and cemiplimab (Libtayo, an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor from Regeneron) after failing 2 or more standard-of-care therapy regimens. Patients received 3-week cycles of THIO 60 mg administered on days 1, 2 and 3 (180 mg total), rest on day 4, and cemiplimab 350mg administered on day 5. Patients on treatment for 12-months have received up to 21 cycles.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bowlero (BOWL) – Floating Increased M&A Activity

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, September 12, 2024

Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results. Q4 revenues exceeded our expectations, $283.9 million (up a strong 18.6% y-o-y) versus our $270.0 million estimate, driven by strong 6.9% growth in same store revenues. Adj. EBITDA was $83.4 million, roughly in line with our $86.5 million estimate.

Resilient against economic headwinds. Management indicated that its business caters to a high end consumer that appears to be resilient to the economy. It plans to roll out high end food items and focus on its event business as a key revenue growth driver in fiscal 2025. Event business is currently $275 million and is expected to exceed $300 million in fiscal 2025.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

V2X (VVX) – American Industrial Partners Lightens Its Holdings

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, September 11, 2024

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Sale. Last week, V2X announced an offering of 2 million shares, with an additional 300,000 shares potentially sold, at $48/sh by American Industrial Partners. AIP will continue to beneficially own approximately 54.4% of the outstanding common stock, or 16,967,286 shares (or approximately 53.4% if the underwriters exercise their option to purchase additional shares in full). Noble Capital was a co-manager of the offering. V2X did not receive any proceeds from the share sale.

Expected. AIP received its shares in the Vectrus/Vertex merger, and we had expected AIP eventually to begin to sell off its stake. V2X shares reacted negatively to the announcement, declining from the $54 level prior to the announcement to the current $49 level. We believe the sell-off to be unwarranted given V2X’s strong operating performance and AIP’s still substantial holdings in V2X shares.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

Maple Gold Mines (MGMLF) – Shareholders Approve Restructuring Transaction with Agnico Eagle

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Shareholder meeting. Maple Gold shareholders overwhelmingly approved all proposed resolutions at the annual general meeting on September 9. This included minority shareholder approval of the restructuring transaction between Maple and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. The company expects to close the restructuring transaction within days and expects to announce plans for a fully financed Fall/Winter drilling program shortly. For more information about the restructuring agreement, please refer to our research note dated June 25th.

Control of the property package. Upon closure of the restructuring agreement, Maple gains 100% control of an established gold mineral resource of over three million ounces at Douay, a past-producing high-grade gold mining complex at Joutel, and a fertile yet underexplored 400 square kilometer land package straddling one of the three major regional deformation zones in the Abitibi greenstone belt. Maple will pursue a clear path to advance the Douay and Joutel projects without near-term dilution risk at the project level.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – End to End Solar Panel Recycling Solutions

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, September 11, 2024

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Deinstallation services. In direct response to customer needs, Comstock Metals now provides and manages deinstallation services for customers. Comstock Metals receives a tipping fee for the receipt and storage of end-of-life solar panels and now may receive additional fees for decommissioning and transporting the panels in addition to revenue earned from the recovery of high value minerals and metals from the recycled panels. The company has completed several deinstallations with several others being negotiated or under bid.

Well positioned to grow the customer base. We think the expansion of the company’s product suite to include decommissioning services better positions the company to more rapidly win new business from a broader range of customers. Comstock Metals coordinates and enables the decommissioning of the end-of-life panels from their customer facilities and coordinates the transportation of these panels to Comstock’s facility in Silver Springs where the materials will be processed and recycled. Comstock is engaged with various, nationally recognized commercial customers to decommission, transport, and process end-of-life solar panels installed at their facilities.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bowlero (BOWL) – Sets Its Mark On M&A Targets

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, September 06, 2024

Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reports solid Q4 results. Q4 revenues exceeded our expectations, $283.9 million (up a strong 18.6% y-o-y) versus our $270.0 million estimate, driven by strong 6.9% growth in same store revenues. Adj. EBITDA was $83.4 million, roughly in line with our $86.5 million estimate. Figure #1 Q4 Results illustrates our estimates versus reported results.

Resilient against economic headwinds. Management indicated that its business caters to a high end consumer that appears to be resilient to the economy. It plans to roll out high end food items and focus on its event business as a key revenue growth driver in fiscal 2025. Event business is currently $275 million and is expected to exceed $300 million in fiscal 2025. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – August Production

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, September 06, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

AI Services. Bit Digital had 256 servers actively generating revenue from its initial Bit Digital AI contract, as of August 31, 2024. The Company earned approximately $4.3 million of unaudited revenue from this contract during the month of August 2024. A service credit of $579,000 related to the downtime experienced during an equipment upgrade was issued to the client in August for the period of February to June 2024.

Bitcoin Mining. The Company produced 53.4 bitcoin during the month, down 11.7% when compared to the prior month. The active hash rate was 2.43 EH/s as of the end of August, compared to 2.46 EH/s at the end of July. As we have noted previously, management continues to monitor the mining environment post halving, with additional investment into this business dependent upon the returns achievable.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Picking Up Steam

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, September 05, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Overachieves expectations. Second quarter revenues of $105.8 million was in line with our $105.0 million estimate. Due to lower than expected Selling & Marketing Expenses and efficiency initiatives, adj. EBITDA was $16.2 million, far better than our $0.9 million estimate, illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. Selling & Marketing expenses were roughly $11 million lower than expected, accounting for the largest portion of the sizable “beat”. 

PC picking up Steam. Notably, management highlighted the launch of Pixel Gun 3D PC Edition to the Steam platform, the largest digital distribution platform for PC gaming. The launch of Pixel Gun 3D on Steam and a solid quarter for Hero Wars: Dominion Era led to PC revenue accounting for 42% of total revenue, up from 38% in the prior year period. The addition of Steam is viewed favorably given that PC players tend to spend more money and time playing than mobile users.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.