Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Information Services Group (III) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, November 07, 2022

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Business Remains on Track. Information Services Group remains on track to post record revenue and adjusted EBITDA. According to management, demand remains strong for digital services, driving a strong profitable mix of products and services, while ISG continues to see an uptick in demand for its cost takeout services given the uncertain economic environment.

Priming the Pump for Additional Growth. ISG added 56 professionals during the quarter, an increase of 3.8%. The new hires are expected to focus on the higher growth digital and recurring revenue opportunities. During the quarter, ISG serviced 625 clients, including 65 new to ISG, both up from the prior year and quarter-over-quarter.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gray Television (GTN) – Learns A Hard Lesson On Forecasting Political

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, November 07, 2022

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 below expectations. The company reported Q3 revenue of $909 million, 4% below our estimate of $948 million. The revenue variance was due to lower than expected Political advertising. Adj. EBITDA of $336 million was 11% below our estimate of $377 million, surprisingly good given the absence of $50 million in high margin revenue.



Political below forecast. The quarterly miss was due primarily to lower-than-expected Political revenue, $144 million compared with our estimate of $194 million. Political advertising shifted toward some of the tight races in larger markets. Nonetheless, for the first nine months of the year, Political revenue was just 3.5% below the cyclical high Presidential election of 2020, on a combined historic basis. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Top line results surpass recently-lowered expectations but so do costs

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Monday, November 07, 2022

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (“Eagle”) is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Eagle reported 2002-3Q Net Revenues of $185.3 million on TCE rates of $28,099. We had recently lowered our net revenue estimate to $158.9 million based on an assumed TCE rate to $25,000. Higher-than-expected revenues reflect a high level of charter-in days (1000 versus our 600 assumption) and an impressive utilization rate of 99.7%. The company has 70% of fourth-quarter available days covered at $25,040 which compares favorably with our models.

But costs were higher. Eagle reported 2002-3Q voyage expenses of $40.8 million versus $30.3 million last year and our estimate of $25.6 million. Voyage operating expenses were $33.1 million versus $28.1 million and our $27.5 million estimate. G&A expenses were $9.7 million versus $7.9 million and our $8.4 million estimate.  Higher costs reflect industry trends but bear watching going forward.


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Information Services Group (III) – 3Q22 First Look and an Acquisition

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com

Friday, November 04, 2022

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q22 Results. ISG announced revenue of $68.8 million, down from $71.1 million in the year ago period, management’s $71-$73 million guide, and our $72 million estimate. The key culprit was a $4 million negative FX impact. Third quarter net income was $5.6 million, GAAP EPS was $0.11, and adjusted EPS was $0.14. Adjusted EBITDA was $10.7 million, a 5.1% increase year-over-year. We forecasted net income of $4.17 million, $0.11 fully diluted EPS, and adjusted EBITDA of $10.4 million.

Cap Structure and Returning Capital. Cash balance totaled $19.7 million at September 30, 2022, down from $31.5 million at June 30, 2022, while outstanding debt was $71.3 million at the end of the third quarter. During the third quarter, ISG repurchased $4.8 million of shares, paid dividends of $2.0 million, paid $1.0 million in a final earnout associated with the 2020 Neuralify acquisition, and paid down $1.1 million of debt.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) – Round Table and Fatburger Expanding in Texas

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 04, 2022

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Large Deal. Yesterday, FAT Brands announced a new development deal that will open 80 new franchised locations in Texas. In a partnership with Brame Holdings LLC, 40 Round Table Pizza restaurants and 40 co-branded Fatburger and Buffalo’s Express locations will open over the next 10 years, with the first opening in 2023.

Who is Brame Holdings LLC? Brame Holdings is an experienced fine dining operator located in San Antonio, Texas. The firm’s reason for the deal is to expand on the existing portfolio with the addition of fast casual/quick-service concepts. FAT Brands believes Brame has the capital and experience to quickly develop and open new Round Table Pizza and Fatburger and Buffalo’s Express locations in Texas.


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1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS) – Margin Outlook Improves

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 04, 2022

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

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Fiscal Q1 exceeds expectations. The company reported fiscal Q1 revenue of $303.6 million, 2.4% above our forecast of $296.5 million. Stronger revenues in Gourmet Food & Gift Baskets accounted for the largest upside revenue variance. Adj. EBITDA loss of $28.7 million was better than our forecast of a loss of $34 million.  

Segment contributions. Revenue was bolstered by 11% growth in the Gourmet Food & Gift Baskets segment, reflecting the Vital Choice acquisition last year, which benefited the quarter by roughly $5 million. The Adj. EBITDA upside was driven by better-than-expected margins in the Consumer Floral and BloomNet segments. Management anticipates that margins should improve in the second half due to moderating labor, ocean freight and shipping costs.


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TAAL Distributed Information Technologies (TAALF) – A Take Private Proposal

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 03, 2022

TAAL Distributed Information Technologies Inc. delivers value-added blockchain services, providing professional-grade, highly scalable blockchain infrastructure and transactional platforms to support businesses building solutions and applications upon the BitcoinSV platform, and developing, operating, and managing distributed computing systems for enterprise users.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Going Private. Yesterday, TAAL announced it had entered into an agreement with its largest shareholder, Calvin Ayre, for Mr. Ayre to take the Company private at a price of CAD$1.07/sh (about US$0.78/sh at the current exchange rate). The price represents about a 39.9% premium to the 10-day volume weighted average price. At first glance, the proposed price appears to be slightly below the average EV/S multiple of the crypto mining peer group, using our financial model, which has not been updated to include 3Q22 results as they have yet to be released.

Details. The transaction has unanimous approval by a Special Committee of independent directors and the full Board. A special shareholders meeting is scheduled for late December 2022. The transaction requires approval by two thirds of the votes cast by shareholders, excluding Mr. Ayre. Closing is expected shortly following the Special Meeting.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Permex Petroleum (OILCF) – Breedlove Field Well A Success – Should Be First Of Many

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 03, 2022

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Permex announced that it had reached target depth on its Eoff PPC #3 well with positive results. The well, the first drilled by Permex in the Breedlove Field, encountered multiple pay zones with favorable results according to management. A decision regarding drilling horizontally (cost of $3-4 million versus $2-3 million for a vertical well) has not been made. Permex acquired the Breedlove Field property in October 2021 which included 12 producing wells, 9 shut-in wells, and significant fill-in drilling opportunities. The Breedlove Field is in Martin County, one of the most successful counties for drilling in the Permian Basin. Successful results were expected but are a positive development, nonetheless.

Reworked wells continue to produce at high volumes. Permex recompleted five wells earlier this year. Initial production of 50 BOEPD has stabilized at 35 BOEPD, increasing total firm production to 71 BOEPD. This is ahead of our projections and meets our expectations for production for the first quarter of next year. We view well completions as a quick and favorable way to generate additional free cash flow in today’s high oil price environment. We expect the company to perform several well recompletions each quarter in addition to drilling a vertical or horizontal well.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

CoreCivic, Inc. (CXW) – First Look 3Q22 Results

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 03, 2022

CoreCivic is a diversified, government-solutions company with the scale and experience needed to solve tough government challenges in flexible, cost-effective ways. We provide a broad range of solutions to government partners that serve the public good through high-quality corrections and detention management, a network of residential and non-residential alternatives to incarceration to help address America’s recidivism crisis, and government real estate solutions. We are the nation’s largest owner of partnership correctional, detention and residential reentry facilities, and believe we are the largest private owner of real estate used by government agencies in the United States. We have been a flexible and dependable partner for government for nearly 40 years. Our employees are driven by a deep sense of service, high standards of professionalism and a responsibility to help government better the public good. Learn more at www.corecivic.com.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q22 Operating Results. CoreCivic reported revenue of $464.2 million, compared to $471.2 million in the year ago period and our estimate of $456 million. Higher expenses, related to labor costs, including hiring additional staff ahead of expected population increases, caused net income to be below our forecast. Driven by the gain on the McRae sale, reported net income was $68.3 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, versus our estimate of $72.5 million, or $0.61 per share.

La Palma Update. Ongoing expenses with the La Palma transition impacted 3Q22 but the good news is the transition should now be complete by yearend as opposed to 1Q23. With the ICE contract at La Palma expired, management believes the Company is well positioned to add additional ICE populations at its other Arizona facilities. Overall, CoreCivic is well positioned to accept additional populations, from the Federal government or state governments.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Comstock Inc. (LODE) – Setting Up for an Eventful 2023

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, November 03, 2022

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Highlights from the third quarter. Comstock recently hosted a webcast to discuss third quarter financial results and the company’s outlook. The presentation touched on recent milestones achieved, including a grant application with the U.S. Department of Energy, key permits received by the company’s LiNiCo battery recycling business, and key developments at its cellulosic fuels business.

Monetization of non-core assets. Comstock expects to realize gross proceeds of $18 million from the sale of non-core assets to the Silver Springs Opportunity Fund with closing expected in the first quarter of 2023. Coupled with the potential sale of other non-core assets, the company could realize gross proceeds greater than $25 million in 2023.


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Tokens.com Corp. (SMURF) – An Operational Update

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Tokens.com Corp is a publicly traded company that invests in Web3 assets and businesses focused on the Metaverse, NFTs, DeFi, and gaming based digital assets. Tokens.com is the majority owner of Metaverse Group, one of the world’s first virtual real estate companies. Hulk Labs, a wholly-owned Tokens.com subsidiary, focuses on investing in play-to-earn revenue generating gaming tokens and NFTs. Additionally, Tokens.com owns and stakes crypto assets to earn additional tokens. Through its growing digital assets and NFTs, Tokens.com provides public market investors with a simple and secure way to gain exposure to Web3.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Providing an Update. Tokens.com issued a press release yesterday that highlighted the Company’s operations in its three different operations: staking, Metaverse, and crypto gaming. Along with the Company’s main operations, Tokens.com included updates on the domain names the Company currently owns and the current capitalization structure. We expect the Company to release its year-end financial results for the nine months ended in mid-December.

Staking. Management showed the current portfolio of coins the Company has, in which very slight changes occurred from the end of the last quarter ended June 30, 2022. Coins such as Ethereum were sold (from 3,499 to 3,206) although coins like ANKR (from 3.01 million to 3.02 million) and ROSE (6.99 million to 7.23 million) were earned or purchased. Although not many changes have been made in the portfolio since the last quarter, we would not be surprised if the Company were to sell or buy coins for the portfolio during the volatile market.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Ocugen (OCGN) – R&D Day Highlights Gene Therapy and COVID Programs

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Ocugen, Inc. is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel gene therapies, biologicals, and vaccines. The lead product, Covaxin, is a killed-virus vaccine for COVID-19 in-licensed from Bharat Biotech (India). The lead product in its gene therapy program, OCU400, is in Phase 1/2 clinical trials for retinitis pigmentosa.

Robert LeBoyer, Vice President, Research Analyst, Life Sciences , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Gene Therapy In The Spotlight.  Ocugen held an R&D Day to highlight its programs in gene therapy and COVID-19.  The presentations discussed the novel mechanisms behind its gene therapy products and the nature of the ophthalmic disease indications in development.  While the company has been best known for COVAXIN and COVID-19, we have always seen the gene therapy indications as highly promising and underappreciated.

Modifier Gene Therapy Platform.  The first presentations discussed the company’s novel approach to gene therapy.  In contrast to other approaches that seek to transfer a functional copy of a gene to replace a gene that has mutated or become dysfunctional, Ocugen’s Modifier Gene Therapy targets a “master control gene” that controls the expression of multiple gene pathways, allowing products to be developed for diseases caused by downstream gene pathways and combinations of genetic mutations.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Implications of a Miss

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, November 02, 2022

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q22 Operating Results Disappoint. Revenue totaled $158.3 million down from $168.6 million last year and below management’s guidance of $160-$170 million. Gross margin was a shocking 2.4%, down from 21.5% in the year ago period, and management’s lower teens guidance. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $1.3 million versus $32.2 million last year and our $21.8 million estimate. The Company reported a loss of $9.9 million, or a loss of $0.15 per share, for the quarter, compared to our estimate of net income of $5.4 million, or $0.08 per share, and last year’s net income of $13.8 million, or $0.21 per share.

What Happened? Lack of “book and burn” business resulted in much lower utilization, pull forward spending on maintenance expenditures taking advantage of the idle vessels, skyrocketing diesel prices impacting the 20% of diesel costs not hedged, and site conditions that remained worse than anticipated.


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