Author: cpatches

Inflation, Energy Prices, and Public Policy

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Robert So (Pexels)

How Long Can the Imbalance of Energy Production and Demand Continue?

During the first 19 months after taking office, the Biden administration has leased fewer acres for oil and gas drilling than any president’s first 19 months since Harry Truman (1945-46). Not long ago, Candidate Biden promised to stop drilling on federal lands to help force a transition to cleaner energy. This promise has mostly been kept. But it is getting more difficult for the 46th POTUS. Demand pressures and reduced output caused oil prices to already be off its pandemic lows when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave way to a semi-embargo on Russian goods, which included oil and gas.

President Biden’s Interior Department leased 126,228 acres for drilling through Aug. 20, during his first 19 months in office. Analysts at the Wall Street Journal uncovered that no president since Nixon in 1969-70 leased out fewer than 4.4 million acres at this stage in their occupation of the White House.

Truman was the most recent to lease out fewer acres, 65,658. This was just after WWII at a time when offshore drilling was just beginning and the federal government didn’t yet control the deep-water leases that are the largest portion of the federal oil-and-gas program today.


The leasing program had tapered during the past decade as fracking shale became preferable to drilling offshore or on federal land. Biden’s use of land and deep-sea leases represents a decline of 97% as compared to the same time period of Trump’s stewardship which had declined 39% compared to his predecessor.

A record high number of drilling permits for existing leases were filed last year, according to The Interior Department . Department spokeswoman Melissa Schwartz told the Wall Street Journal that industry trends have driven most U.S. production to private and state-owned lands, and that of the roughly 35 million acres now leased from the federal government, about 60% aren’t actively producing.

As for offshore leases, the Biden administration has yet to complete a sale. It did hold one, on Nov. 17, offering 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico in a sale originally proposed by the Trump administration that would have been the largest offshore sale in U.S. history. It sold 1.7 million acres, but a federal judge invalidated the sale in January, ruling that the administration failed to do a proper environmental analysis.


One can either appreciate the resolve of the current administration in its effort to foster fewer emmited pollutants, or fault him for his role in curbing energy production and its contribution to higher prices and less energy independence.  If the measurement had been made as of the first 17 months of his presidency,  the acreage number would be zero, there were no onshore lease sales. The government then held five June 29-30.

Leases for oil and natural gas drilling is the beginning of the petroleum product supply chain. But, while there is no shortage of federal land, an escalation of lease sales now, or under any successor’s policies, would take years to build and deliver its first barrel.

The increase in gasoline and oil prices has caused the president to take steps to boost oil supplies. In late March the President said he’d be releasing as much as 180 million gallons from the strategic oil reserves over the following 180 days. This was unprecedented in its magnitude and a response to the doubling and tripling of gasoline prices.

Energy independence has been the goal of many of Biden’s predecessors. We live at a time when the call has been to prioritize policy that encourages transitioning to non-fossil fuel. This naturally has caused investors in resources like lithium and uranium to see price increases. Large oil price increases have also come from lower growth of petroleum supplies. Part of the relief valve the administration used, is tapping into the finite supply of strategic oil reserves. The current pace of using this resource is unsustainable.

This could indicate that energy investors, in fossil fuels and alternatives may see strong markets with demand outstripping supply going forward for some time.

Paul Hoffman
Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/oil-and-gas/leasing/regional-lease-sales

https://www.blm.gov/programs/energy-and-minerals/oil-and-gas/leasing

https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/environment/article261303202.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/03/31/strategic-petroleum-reserve-release-biden/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-oil-leases-slow-to-a-trickle-under-biden-11662230816

Biotech and Pharmaceutical Companies How they are Different

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Pixabay (Pexels)

The Differences Investors Should Know Between Biotech Companies and Pharmaceutical Manufacturers

In mid-June of this year, the stock market seemed to have changed. The oil sector that had been up for most of the year began trending down, and most other industries that had been hard hit began moving up in a mid-year “V” shape. The new leader replacing oil was biotech, which had been one of the hardest hit at the beginning of the year. It makes sense that biotech trades with its own cycles – it’s a very different sector. There is reason to believe that fundamentals favor the biotech sector now, below we discuss the nuances of these very interesting companies, and explain how they are different than other drug companies..

With biotech stocks, regulators, financiers, the highly educated, geniuses, technology, and investors all come together to help people in the most important way – life and health. For investors, it provides its own set of challenges, and at least two possible rewards. If an investor uncovers the stock that has the right mix of science, money and regulatory approval, they may not only cash in like few other sectors, but also be part of improving the health of generations to come.

Above, I did use the word “possible”. This is true of all stocks in all sectors, but the volatility in the biotech sector is a demonstration of the adage that for bigger potential rewards, one would have to increase their risk. Companies in this industry, often startups with great patents, burn through millions of dollars, often with zero earnings, and with any potential for earnings years off and contingent on being right about their science and the products it can provide. This means stock selection in biotech requires a deeper understanding of the company and potential for its work than in other sectors.


What’s included in the Biotechnology Sector?

Biotechnology focuses on novel drug development and clinical research aimed at treating diseases and medical conditions.

They are almost always unprofitable, and many have no revenue at all. In fact, some stock analysts would suggest that the main distinction between a biotech and a pharmaceutical company lies in profitability. Biotechnology is often characterized as being more research and development than manufacturing. They serve as incubators for the ideas that lead to the next “miracle” cures. But, drug development has a long development timeline. A successful candidate can take a decade or more to go from idea to available medicine. That’s if it is among the roughly 10% of prospective candidates that reaches approval for use.

Why would anyone invest in a company that is developing a pipeline of potential products that each have about a 10% chance of approval? Because breakthrough drugs, and the potential for breakthroughs, each step forward on the path toward approval often provides a huge upward move in the stock price. Even if not eventually approved. Conversely failure to move forward often comes with a rapid decline from disappointment.


Differences Between Biotech and Pharmaceuticals

There is a lot of overlap and a gray area between what is biotech and what is pharmaceutical. Here are some guidelines of where the differences often lay.

Biotechnology ventures tend to be more entrepreneurial pursuits with a lot on the line for the success of an idea, while pharmaceutical companies have an ongoing business and can better gauge and manage business risk. One reason is pharmaceutical companies often have a large diversified portfolio of approved drugs they market. They may also have drugs in various stages of research and development, but these costs are usually investments in future products using current revenue.

A biotechnology firm is often based on “new” science and driven to develop a useful and profitable application for the science. An example of a growing segment of biotech is biopharma which develops drugs originating living organisms.

Large pharmaceutical companies often pay stable dividends to shareholders, this is rare in companies that fall under the biotech umbrella, if there are earnings it may be reinvested in moving forward the study of drugs in development. Many biotechs’ strength is to explore and develop, not to market the successful result. Large pharmaceutical companies, like Johnson and Johnson (JNJ)or Eli Lilly (LLY) are marketing machines, they look to smaller biotech to be an incubator to keep their portfolio of products fresh.

The two industries also stand apart when it comes to valuation and business evaluation. Models and valuation derived from cash flow are quite relevant in assessing pharmaceutical stocks. While many analysts gamely attempt to construct discounted cash flow models for early-stage biotechs, the reality is that success is often thumbs-up or thumbs-down (“drug works” or “drug doesn’t work”).


The FDA Has Final Say

As the regulatory body that approves new drugs for the U.S. market, as well as issues permits for human clinical trials, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is the gatekeeper for every biotech firm. Investors should have some understanding of the FDA process and requirements or follow an analyst covering the sector that does. In order to get FDA approval, biotechs must establish a sufficient body of information that the drug is safe and effective. This is generally done through a series of at least three clinical trials.

If the trials meet the goals for safety and efficacy, the company files a request for approval called a New Drug Application (NDA). If the NDA is approved, the FDA sets the date a decision will be made by on the application.


Product Pipeline

A biotech’s pipeline is the future of the company. Investors focus a great deal on the number of entrants in the pipeline, the stages of study they are at, and the overall science, and competing products (if any). It’s critical to establish valuation forecasts.

Different biotech companies tend to operate in different stages of a product’s development. The stages are, most commonly, preclinical testing, enabling studies, clinical trials, and biologics licensing. A company that is focused on the early stage of research and development will conduct preliminary research to determine whether an idea may successfully be used against a disease or ailment. It attempts to answer, “can this technology become a product?”. This step requires translating the technology into a product. Preclinical testing is the phase of product development when a company must show that its proposed product is safe. They must also determine what the pharmacokinetics (PK) pharmacodynamics (PD) are. PK shows what happens to a drug once it enters the body, ie: how quickly its absorbed, distributed, metabolized, and excreted. Studies done for the express purpose of convincing the FDA to approve the start of clinical trials in humans are called Investigational New Drug (IND)-enabling.

Once a startup has received approval from the FDA to begin clinical trials for their product, they progress through a series of phases depending on how their product fares. These phases are:

Phase 1 This first trial’s main purpose is to determine that the product is safe for use in humans. The number of participants is kept as small as possible, and may be limited to patients who are farther along in a disease state or who have exhausted other options for treatment.

Phase 2 The second phase continues to confirm that the product is safe, but increases the number of participants and tries to determine the optimum dose and regimen.

Phase 3 Typically the last clinical trial phase and is designed to determine whether the treatment is truly effective, and is expanded to include enough people so the potential side effects are more likely to be captured in the data.

The biologics license application (BLA) is the process by which a biologic that has successfully completed clinical trials applies to the FDA to be sold to the public. A new drug application (NDA) is the same process, but for pharmaceuticals.


Take Away

Biotech investing can be very rewarding. Investors need to understand the company and the risks, and also the stage in the pipeline and the success of recent trials. Failed attempts by companies in this sector at devising the next wonder drug outnumber successes. One success may easily make up for some failures for investors.   With research into the company and even reliance on trusted analysts that specialize in biotechs, an investor can increase their chances of uncovering oversized profits. We encourage you, if you are not signed up for Channelchek and the research by Noble Capital Markets equity analysts delivered to your inbox each morning, to take the time and register with us now.


Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.universitylabpartners.org/blog/product-development-in-life-science

https://biotechhealth.com/biotech-vs-pharma/

https://www.qualio.com/blog/biotech-vs-pharma

Information Services Group Inc. (III) – 10b5-1 Plan for CEO Connors

Posted on by cpatches

Tuesday, September 6, 2022

Information Services Group – 0b5-1 Plan for CEO Connors

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

10b5-1 Plan. On August 31, 2022, Michael P. Connors, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Information Services Group, Inc. entered into a written stock selling plan in accordance with Rule 10b5-1 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, to sell a limited number of shares of the Company’s common stock. Rule 10b5-1 provides guidelines for officers, directors and other insiders to prearrange sales of securities in a manner that avoids concerns about initiating stock transactions while in possession of material nonpublic information.

Details. The Plan allows for the sale of a maximum of 1,200,000 shares of the Company’s common stock, commencing on October 3, 2022 and continuing until all such shares are sold or March 15, 2023, whichever occurs first. According to the 8-k filing, Mr. Connors is currently the Company’s second largest shareholder, beneficially owning approximately 10.9% of the Company’s total outstanding common stock as of August 31, 2022. A Form 4 filed August 3rd, indicates Mr. Connors held nearly 5.7 million III shares.

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

What Sandcastles and Rebuilding Landscapes After Mining Have in Common

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Victoria Pickering (Flickr)
This article was republished with permission from   The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Joseph Scalia, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Colorado State University

Sandcastle Engineering – A Geotechnical Engineer Explains How Water, Air and Sand Create Solid Structures

If you want to understand why some sandcastles are tall and have intricate structures while others are nearly shapeless lumps of sand, it helps to have a background in geotechnical engineering.

As a geotechnical engineering educator myself, I use sandcastles in the classroom to explain how interactions of soil, water and air make it possible to rebuild landscapes after mining metals critical to the energy transition.

Building a sandcastle comes down to the right mix of those three ingredients. Sand provides the structure, but it’s water between the sand grains that provides the force – in this case, suction – that holds the sand together. And without the right amount of air the water would just push the sand grains apart.

Not Just Any Sand

Sand grains, according to the standards body ASTM International’s Unified Soil Classification System, are soil particles having a diameter of 0.003 inches (0.075 mm) to 0.187 inches (4.75 mm). Sands, by definition, have at least half their particles in that range. Silt or clay is soil with particles smaller than sand size. And soil with particles larger than sand size is gravel.

The size of particles, or grains, also determines the way sand looks and feels. The smallest sand grains have a texture almost like powdered sugar. The largest grains are more like the size of small dry lentils.

Most sand will work for building a sandcastle, but the best sand has two characteristics: grains of sand in several different sizes and grains with angular or rough edges. Variation in grain size allows smaller sand grains to fill the pockets, or pores, between the larger sand grains. The result is increased sand strength.

Sand grains that are more angular, with sharp corners on them, lock together better, making the sandcastle stronger. It’s the same reason a pile of angular wooden blocks will stay in a pile, but a pile of marbles will go everywhere.

This is also why, surprisingly, the best sand for sandcastles is not typically found on an island or a coastal beach. More angular grains of sand are usually found closer to mountains, their geologic source. These sand grains have not yet had their edges rounded off by wind and water. Professional sandcastle builders will go so far as to import river sand for their creations.

Finally, the closer together the sand grains are, the stronger the sand will be. Pressing wet sand together tightly, by compaction or tamping, squeezes sand grains together, decreasing the size of pores and increasing the effect water can have. Compaction also increases grain interlocking and, consequently, sand strength.

Suction is one of the forces holding this sand sculpture together (El Coleccionista de Instantes – Flickr)

Just Enough Water

The quantity of water in the sand controls the size and strength of the water bridges. Too little water equals little bridges between the sand grains. More water, and the size and number of bridges grows, increasing the suction holding the sand grains together. The result is perfect sandcastle sand.

Too much water, though, and the suction is too weak to hold the sand together.

A general rule of thumb for building great sandcastles is one part water for every eight parts dry sand. Under ideal conditions in a laboratory, though, with dense sand and zero evaporation, one part water for every one hundred parts dry sand can produce wonders. At a beach, sand with the right moisture level is near the high tide line when the tide is low.

Incidentally, salt from seawater can also be a boon for sandcastle stability. Capillary forces hold sand grains together initially, but capillary water will eventually evaporate, particularly on a windy day. When sea water dries up, salt is left behind. Since the seawater was forming bridges between the grains, the salt crystallizes at these points of contact. In this way, salt can keep a sandcastle standing long after the sand has dried. But be careful not to disturb the salt-bonded sand; it’s brittle and collapsible.

To build a strong sandcastle, compact sand and a little water as tightly as you can. I prefer to create a dense mound and then scoop and carve away to reveal the art within. You can also compact the sand into buckets, cups or other molds, and build from the ground up. Just be sure to get the sand dense, and place the mold on a compacted foundation. Hands make for both a great compaction and carving tool, but a shovel or a seashell will allow for more precision. Have fun, and don’t be afraid to get sandy!

Eskay Mining Corp. (ESKYF) – Consolidated Eskay VMS Project Demonstrating District-Scale Potential

Posted on by cpatches


Friday, September 02, 2022

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Prospecting and mapping yield results. The work by the company’s prospecting and mapping team is quickly identifying new VMS targets at Scarlet Ridge and Scarlet Valley which has advanced them from areas of interest into drilled targets that are now delivering significant sulfide-bearing mineralized intercepts. Mineralization and hydrothermal alteration are intense and widespread throughout areas drilled to date.

Maiden drilling commences at Scarlet Valley. Maiden drilling is underway at Scarlet Valley targeting extensive surface exposures of a VMS feeder zone including replacement-style sulfide mineralization. Hole SV22-1 was drilled to a depth of 618 meters to enable three-dimensional geologic modeling of favorable horizons for replacement-style mineralization along strike. A second drill has been deployed to help define the extent of this highly prospective area before the onset of winter weather. Management expects to drill nine holes at Scarlet Valley.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Codere Online (CDRO) – Executing On Its Plan

Posted on by cpatches


Friday, September 02, 2022

Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile application. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Italy, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence in the region.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results. The company reported Q2 net gaming revenue of €29.2 million, representing 41% year-over-year growth, which was an acceleration from the 24% year-over-year growth in Q1. Growth in Mexico continued to be strong, at 85%, while revenue in Spain also grew over the prior year period by 12%.


Planning expansion in Argentina. In August, the company completed its application for an online gaming license in the Argentine province of Cordoba. Management noted that a decision on the application is expected in the next month. Licenses are expected to be issued before year-end for approved operators…


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Allegiant Gold (AUXXF) – This is What Progress Looks Like

Posted on by cpatches


Friday, September 02, 2022

Allegiant owns 100% of 10 highly-prospective gold projects in the United States, seven of which are located in the mining-friendly jurisdiction of Nevada. Three of Allegiant’s projects are farmed-out, providing for cost reductions and cash-flow. Allegiant’s flagship, district-scale Eastside project hosts a large and expanding gold resource and is located in an area of excellent infrastructure. Preliminary metallurgical testing indicates that both oxide and sulphide gold mineralization at Eastside is amenable to heap leaching.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Core diamond drill program. In June, Allegiant Gold commenced a diamond core drilling program at Eastside in the high-grade zone discovered during the 2021 drill program within the original pit zone. The company is on the fifth hole which have averaged 530 meters to 550 meters depth. We think the company could complete up to 9 holes by the end of the year. Recall that in May 2021, results from Allegiant’s nine-hole drill program returned strong gold intercepts for Holes 239, 243, 244, and 245.

RC drilling results expected soon. Allegiant completed a 32-hole, 6,703-meter reverse circulation drill program in June to test new exploration targets at Eastside, including 21 holes drilled in the East Pediment and 11 holes drilled at the West Anomaly. The targets are to the east and west of the original pit zone and we expect the company to begin releasing available drill results from this program soon. We believe Allegiant may resume reverse circulation drilling in October to continue drilling additional targets based on assays….

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

1·800·Flowers.com (FLWS) – Is The Vase Half Empty?

Posted on by cpatches


Friday, September 02, 2022

1·800·Flowers.com (FLWS) – Is The Vase Half Empty?

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fiscal Q4 disappoints. The company reported a disappointing fiscal Q4. While revenues were largely in line with expectations, costs increased substantially. The company reported an adj. EBITDA loss of $16.8 million versus our $4.0 million estimate. 

Gross margins tumble. Gross margins tumbled 700 basis points to 33.7%, lower than our 34% estimate. The company was adversely affected by higher wage, transportation, and ocean freight costs, as well as a write down of perishable inventory due to weakened consumer demand. …

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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Should Investors Pay Attention to US Strategic Reserve Replenishment?

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Paul B (Flickr)

Will Drivers Continue to be Dogged by High Gas Prices as US Strategic Oil Reserve is Replenished?

The last time the US Strategic Oil Reserves was this low was January 1985. The US population was then 238 million, The Cosby Show was the top-rated on TV, the threat of the AIDS virus was just beginning to be understood, and a newly appointed NIH Director named Anthony Fauci had just been promoted. In 37 years, some things have changed, and some things have not. One that has not is the need for reliable energy.

The Reserves reached its peak in April 2011 with 726.5 million barrels; today we sit with 453.1 million. Will it take 37 years to replenish the more than 200 million barrels, 160 million that have been siphoned off since March of this year?


The barrels that are being used in 2022, were ordered released by the White House to offset domestic loss of production, pipeline distribution, and less supply compounded by global shortages resulting from a partial embargo against Russia. The order is intended to work to lower gas prices today and help reduce the impact oil prices are having on unacceptably high inflation.

President Biden said in March that the US would release one million barrels of oil a day for six months as petroleum products spiked following the start of the Russian/Ukrainian war. The White House then said, in late July, the US would release another 20 million barrels.

To some degree, it worked as intended. There has been a fall in the price at the gas pumps over the past two months. Much of this has been supply related helped by the reserve releases, and to a lesser extend, demand has also slowed from receding economic activity. WTI crude, the US benchmark price, has dropped around 24%.


That decline has brought US gasoline prices down from above $5 a gallon in June to $3.89 on Tuesday, August 17. Globally, other countries are tapping into their own strategic reserves as well.

What Happens When we Refill It?

The US consumed about 20 million barrels of oil a day on average in 2021, according to the EIA. During the same year, it produced 11 million barrels a day. The Biden administration is proposing to refill the stockpiles under a plan that is likely to see it order 60 million barrels this fall for delivery at an unspecified time in the future. That leaves at least another 100 million barrels to bring the country back to where we were in March 2022 – over two hundred more to bring us back to the peak. It took 37 years last time for the country to stockplile the same amount.

The current infrastructure is not supporting additional oil output, or companies would be pumping now. On July 1, President Biden made public a five-year proposal for offshore oil and gas development in areas of existing production and said the final plan might have anywhere from zero to 11 lease sales.

The range of proposed options were, between two auctions a year and none at all. The plan seemed conflicted with a desire to balance the administration’s efforts to reduce the use of fossil fuels and its calls to increase needed oil and gas.

Energy Demand Moving Forward

Does restocking the Reserves point toward high petroleum demand for a much longer time period than ever expected? Does it also create opportunities for producers of biofuels, for example GEVO?

The current fuel issues are not going to disappear overnight. Borrowing from the future with an intent, and now a plan to pay it back, will require more production than before. Companies that produce are not inclined to make big investments in building out a platform when the political climate is one of wanting to shut production down as soon as possible.

The cost of reducing energy output and then borrowing from reserves, especially when an unexpected embargo is placed on a major supplier, could keep the price of all energy elevated for a much longer time than, the end of a war, of installation of coastal wind farms.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek 

Sources

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCSSTUS1&f=M

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_geographies.php#pricesbyregion

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/26/fact-sheet-department-of-energy-releases-new-notice-of-sale-as-gasoline-prices-continue-to-fall/

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director

https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-additional-notice-sale-crude-oil-strategic-petroleum-reserve

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/biden-administration-proposes-offshore-drilling-plan-focused-mainly-us-gulf-2022-07-01/

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT) – A Tuck-in Acquisition to Improve Factory Utilization and Expand Market Share

Posted on by cpatches

Thursday, May 26, 2022

FAT Brands Inc. (FAT)
A Tuck-in Acquisition to Improve Factory Utilization and Expand Market Share

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Acquisition. Yesterday, FAT Brands announced that it agreed to acquire the franchised chain of stores known as Nestlé Toll House Café by Chip from Crest Foods, Inc. While the acquisition increases the Company’s presence in the cookie segment, we believe the driving force to be the opportunity to increase the capacity utilization of the manufacturing business, which currently manufactures cookie dough and pretzel mix for FAT Brands, as well as conducts distribution services for other products used in those operations. Recall, the factory is currently operating at roughly one-third of capacity. At full capacity, the factory could more than double its EBITDA contribution.

Who, and What, Is Nestlé Toll House Café by Chip from Crest Foods, Inc.? While terms of the acquisition were not released, Nestle Toll House Café currently franchises approximately 85 cafés across the U.S., with a concentration in Texas. The very first Nestle Toll House Café by Chip opened in August 2000, in Frisco, Texas and the brand touches over 60 million customers per year. Cafes are commonly found in shopping malls or shopping centers….



This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Price Moves When Warren Buffett Buys and Sells (Based on May 16 SEC Filing)

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The Big Price Impact on Stocks After Warren Buffett’s Most Active Buying Spree

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) were actively spending down the company’s large pool of cash last quarter, just as they promised during their recent annual meeting. This makes sense as some stock prices are lower than they have been in years, and a few sectors are showing they could have plenty of upside potential. It makes even more sense when you consider that Berkshire Hathaway was sitting on $144 billion in cash. The inflation rate is now running above 8% and eroding the value of every unearning penny.

Jumping into the market can be costly if wrong, but investor’s ‘dry powder’ is being eroded with increased costs by the day – finding a place for money to grow by at least the inflation rate would seem prudent. The analysts at Berkshire Hathaway are certainly aware of this.

The positive impact of Berkshire showing confidence in a company is often all that is needed to exceed the near non-earnings holding a cash position. Below we look at three Berkshire Hathaway changed positions as reported on May 16, and then compare the stock’s price moves versus the overall market.

Where Did They Gain Exposure

As revealed by the companies 13F filed on May 16, as of March 31 Berkshire Hathaway added Citigroup (C), Paramount Global (PARA), and sold Verizon (VZ). There were older positions added to as well, such as Chevron (CVX), and Activision Blizzard (ATVI). But for the purpose of showing the power of Buffett’s believing a stock is attractive, or in Verizon’s case, no longer attractive, we’ll take a look at the market moves of these companies as of 1pm the day after the 13F was made public.

Source: Koyfin
The above chart of Citibank, Paramount Global, and Verizon from the beginning trading on Monday compares the stocks to the S&P 500 performance during the same short period.

The S&P, as reflected during the short period in this chart, beginning on the date of Berkshire’s 13F filing, shows the S&P 500 up 1.60%. This is substantial in a year when the index has mostly been delivering red to investors. Verizon was the most noteworthy sale of Buffett as they brought their position near zero. The company’s stock rose only 0.11%, well below the S&P benchmark performance.

As for the positions opened during the first quarter by Berkshire Hathaway, Citicorp shot up 8.28%. Paramount Global reacted even more strongly, rising double digits to 13.95%. 

Lessons

While an SEC-registered portfolio new holdings are kept close to the vest before reported in order to avoid insider trading problems, listening to what someone like Warren Buffett is saying at annual meetings and at other times can allow you to get a sense if they have been active, and in what industries. More important, is whether they are active buying or selling. For an investor that is holding a stock which a well-followed investor has decided to sell, can cause significant underperformance for at least the near term.

Other Pertinent Info from the 13F Filing

During the first quarter of 2022, the value of Berkshire’s US stock portfolio rose by 10% to $364 billion. Buffett had indicated the firm he manages has been struggling to find bargains in recent years. He blamed this on stocks swelling to record highs, fierce competition from private equity firms, and SPACs which increased competition and costs of acquisitions. Even Berkshire’s own rising stock price made it unappealing as a company stock buy-back.

A change of appetite took place in the first quarter of 2022. Berkshire bought $51 billion worth of equities and sold less than $10 billion in stocks. Its net cash reduction of $41 billion helped slash its cash pile by 28% to $106 billion. Q1 2022 marked one of the most active buying periods in Berkshire Hathaway’s history.

Take-Away

Well known, successful investors can either make a winner out of your holding or cause it to trade at a pace below the market. While knowing and trading on information before it is made public can get you in trouble, investors like Buffett do provide guidance. These hints as to their thinking and likely direction may help investors somewhat. This is why it always makes sense to know what they’re saying – it isn’t fun holding something they just reported sold, and the tailwind they create when you’re long the same company can be profitable.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000095012322006442/xslForm13F_X01/primary_doc.xml

https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#google_vignette

www.koyfin.com

FDA Program May Help Investors Uncover Breakthrough Medical Technology

Posted on by cpatches

The FDA Breakthrough Devices Program may be a starting point for investors exploring the medical space. It’s designed to create a quicker path for medical devices that provide more effective treatment or diagnosis of life-threatening or irreversible conditions. There are significant benefits for the companies granted access to the program. Lists of devices after the companies have been granted a marketing authorization are available on the FDA website.

While new pharmaceuticals tend to grab headlines quicker than devices, investors looking for public companies, that may be uncorrelated to the pace of US economic growth or the financial markets, may visit the website and then research the companies on Channelchek.

Image Credit: US Food and Drug Administration (Flickr)

Benefits of the Breakthrough Devices Program

The purpose of the Breakthrough Devices Program is to provide patients and health care providers with timely access to novel medical devices by speeding up their development, assessment, and review. At the same time, it preserves the statutory standards for premarket approval, 510(k) clearance, and De Novo marketing authorization, consistent with the Agency’s mission to protect and promote public health.

Manufacturers have the opportunity to interact with the FDA’s experts through several different program options to efficiently address issues that present themselves during the FDA premarket review phase. This feedback from the FDA helps shorten the agreement phase. The company can also expect a prioritized review of its submission. This can have the effect of speeding the product to market with less cost and fewer problems.

How this Works

Pulling an example from the Channelchek library of videos from NobleCon18, we can use Perimeter Medical Imaging AI (PYNKF) to understand what a candidate looks like and how it may bring value to the patient, medical provider, and possibly investors.

Perimeter is an early-stage medical device company that expects its flagship product to address unmet cancer treatment needs. Initially, the device is expected to change the way breast cancer is treated and evaluated to improve outcomes and minimize the chance of recurrence or having to reoperate. In order to apply for the FDA designation, Perimeter’s device was indicated for breast cancer. However, the applications are expected to extend well beyond and into other major cancers in the $3.7 billion total market.

This FDA designation makes for a much more clear regulatory pathway. Perimeter meets the first guideline in that its product has unique technology (breakthrough) that is solving problems with a different method on a scalable platform. The procedures are expected to reduce the cost to patients, minimize the need for repeat surgery and be self-funding from the hospitals’ standpoint. This is because about 20 to 25% of cancer patients now need to return for a re-operation that costs approximately $16,000. Hospitals that adopt the Perimeter AI technology could serve patients better and stand to recover their costs while reducing overall patient costs on average.

Take-Away

There are many ways to uncover companies that are “on the move.” Reviewing those the FDA is likely to help along toward a full “go-ahead” is just one of them. For a more detailed look at Perimeter, their unique business model,  and technology, watch the 20-minute video below. For more on understanding the FDA Breakthrough Device Program in order to uncover companies that could change medicine, go to FDA.gov .

To evaluate small and growing companies, explore Channelchek beginning here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek