Newcrest Mining Just Agreed to Be Acquired by Newmont, Who’s Next?

Is Further Consolidation in the Mining Sector Expected?

Two of the world’s leading gold producers have agreed to merge. In a press release this week, Newmont Mining (NEM) said it entered into a definitive agreement to acquire 100% of shares of Newcrest Mining (NCMGY). The deal represents a 30.4% premium to Newcrest stockholders above the price when Newmont first made an offer in February. While this is a huge deal that will greatly expand the world’s largest gold-producing company, investors are seeing possible opportunities in smaller mining companies. It’s likely some are quietly being targeted in 2023 for a number of important reasons. Investors interested in this industry may want to familiarize themselves with the current dynamics.

About the Newmont Newcrest Deal

Newmont, the world’s largest gold producer, is solidly moving toward becoming much larger after the board of takeover target Newcrest Mining unanimously agreed to recommend the merger bid to shareholders. Newmont projections indicate the combined entity could create annual production of 8Moz of gold and 155k tonnes of copper.

The merged company would easily control world-leading gold stocks. Newmont is also set to become a significant copper producer, with current and expected developments to provide significant production upside in the coming years, including the world-class Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in Papua New Guinea.

Takeover Details

After rejecting Newmont’s initial February 2023 offer, the Newcrest board today elected to accept the significantly upgraded April revised proposal. The deal carries an implied equity value of US$26.2 billion and enterprise value for Newcrest of US$28.8 billion.

Current Newcrest shareholders will have 31% ownership of the combined group.

According to Newcrest’s chairman, Peter Tomsett, the transaction will combine two of the world’s leading gold producers, bringing forward significant value to Newcrest shareholders through the recognition of the company growth pipeline.

Will the Merger Trend Continue?

Higher metals prices and increased demand brought on by changing energy production and storage, post-pandemic demand, and commodities investing in an uncertain global economy have caused a number of deals in this sector already this year.  

The primary reasons to expect more consolidation within the mining sector are growing.  

The chart above created by the CRU Group shows how fragmented gold mining is relative to other metals. The top 10 largest gold miners only produce 28% of all output. Gold prices have been rising fairly steadily but spending on exploration has been stalled. Growth to create shareholder value, would most efficiently and expediently be achieved by merger and acquisition (M&A). In the current environment, buyouts of active producers with known reserves are the alternative way for larger miners to to increase their production share, replenish depleting gold reserves and… lower production costs through with far less risk and in a shorter time period.  

More Reasons to Own Mining Companies

World demand has been heightened for gold, copper, and other minerals used to store or distribute electricity. This dynamic which has been trending upward in recent years, is likely to push other financially strong mining companies, that want to satisfy new production demand now rather than through exploration and long, uncertain bureaucratic approval processes will shop for producers to increase production and grow to serve shareholders. Smaller companies that find themselves the target of an acquisition, also have a duty to serve shareholders. Often this plays out by the target company negotiating terms that are similar to the 30% gain seen in the Newmont/Newcrest deal.

What Else

Informed stock selection is key to discovering and deciding whether to invest in companies best positioned to benefit from a sector experiencing growing demand where acquisitions, in full or in part, fulfill larger company goals.

Where does an investor start to better understanding the mining sector and individual companies? Earlier this year The Channelchek Take Away Series brought to viewers a live in-depth presentation of 12 mining companies that were just coming off the huge PDAC mining conference in Canada. These presentations are available on video to be replayed – they may be the best place to begin hearing from mining company executives and a highly respected senior natural resources analyst. Click here to get started. Then visit Channelchek’s Natural Resources data of the many other companies available to discover for even more interesting, actionable opportunities.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.newmont.com/investors/news-release/news-details/2023/Newmont-Enters-into-Definitive-Agreement-to-Acquire-Newcrest/default.aspx

https://im-mining.com/category/mining-mergers-and-acquisitions/

https://www.crugroup.com/knowledge-and-insights/insights/2023/gold-sector-consolidation-has-a-long-way-to-go/

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