Thursday, May 07, 2026
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Overview. The GEO Group reported better than expected 1Q26 results. The outperformance reflects significant revenue growth from the contracts entered into throughout 2025. Operating expenses were favorably impacted by lower-than-expected labor costs compared to previous expectations. Management continues to expect 2026 to be very active as well on a contract basis and therefore believes the Company has upside potential across the diversified business segments.
1Q26 Results. Revenue increased 17% to $705.2 million, exceeding our $680 million estimate. First quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $131.4 million, compared to $99.8 million for 1Q25, reflecting a 32% increase and above our $108.8 million estimate. GEO reported net income attributable to GEO operations of $38.3 million, or $0.29/sh, compared to net income attributable to GEO Operations of $19.6 million, or $0.14/sh, for 1Q25. We were at $29.2 million and $0.21/sh.
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