Gold and silver prices suffered a brutal reversal on Friday, marking one of the sharpest pullbacks in modern precious metals trading as a crowded bullish trade rapidly unwound. Gold futures plunged as much as 11%, briefly falling below $4,800 per ounce before stabilizing near $4,900, while silver collapsed more than 25% in its steepest one-day decline on record. The violent sell-off followed months of near-parabolic gains that had pushed both metals to historic highs and attracted increasingly speculative positioning.
The sudden reversal unfolded amid a broader risk-off move across global markets. Equities sold off sharply after President Trump nominated former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, a decision markets interpreted as potentially restoring a more hawkish tilt to monetary policy. The US dollar strengthened in response, with the dollar index rising nearly 1%, adding pressure to metals that had benefited heavily from dollar weakness earlier this year.
Strategists largely agreed that the sell-off, while extreme, was not entirely unexpected. “The higher metals rise, the more likely 2026 will mark enduring price peaks — notably for silver — if history is a guide,” Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone wrote, pointing to the speed and magnitude of the rally as warning signs. Gold and silver had become emblematic of the so-called “debasement trade,” fueled by expectations of aggressive rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and declining confidence in fiat currencies.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, warned earlier this week that the metals rally was entering a “dangerous phase.” According to Hansen, volatility itself became the catalyst for collapse. As price swings intensified, liquidity thinned, making the market vulnerable to forced selling. Once prices began to fall, leveraged positions were quickly unwound, accelerating losses and overwhelming buyers.
Gold’s rally had been particularly striking. Just days earlier, prices surged past $5,500 per ounce after the Federal Reserve held rates steady and Chair Jerome Powell offered limited resistance to a weakening dollar. Goldman Sachs had recently reiterated a bullish year-end target of $5,400, citing increased participation from private-sector investors and sustained demand for inflation hedges. That optimism evaporated quickly as sentiment flipped from fear of missing out to fear of being last out.
Silver’s decline was even more dramatic. After topping $120 per ounce earlier this week, the metal fell to around $87, still up roughly 28% year to date but far removed from its peak. Silver’s dual role as both a monetary and industrial metal tends to amplify volatility, and its explosive rise in 2025 left prices especially vulnerable to sharp corrections. JPMorgan analysts had cautioned earlier this month that silver had “significantly overshot” forecasted averages, even as they acknowledged the difficulty of calling a top in a momentum-driven market.
Despite the scale of the drop, some analysts argue the long-term bull case for precious metals may not be fully broken. Persistent fiscal deficits, geopolitical uncertainty, and structural shifts in global reserves could continue to support gold over time. Still, Friday’s crash served as a stark reminder that even the most compelling macro narratives can unravel quickly when trades become crowded — and that volatility cuts both ways.
