Tag: Precious Metals

Gold Rally Cools as White House Prepares to Clarify Import Rules

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold futures retreated from record highs Friday after the White House signaled it would move to clarify confusion over whether U.S. tariffs apply to imported gold bars, calming a rally fueled by earlier reports of new restrictions.

The pullback came after a senior White House official told CNBC the administration will issue an executive order “in the near future” to address what it described as “misinformation” about the treatment of gold bars and other specialty products under recent trade measures.

Gold for December delivery briefly touched an all-time closing high of $3,491.30 per ounce before slipping to $3,463.30 in late trading on the news. Spot gold also eased but remained on track for its second consecutive weekly gain, supported by broader market optimism over potential U.S. interest rate cuts.

Market jitters began earlier in the day after the Swiss Precious Metals Association said U.S. Customs and Border Protection had indicated that 1-kilogram and 100-ounce gold cast bars were not excluded from the 39% tariffs recently imposed on Swiss exports. Switzerland is the world’s largest gold refiner, processing bullion that moves through the global financial system and serves as a key supplier to U.S. markets.

Christoph Wild, president of the Swiss Precious Metals Association, warned that such tariffs could disrupt the international flow of physical gold and complicate trade with the United States, which he called a “long-standing and historical partner” for Switzerland.

The association also noted the CBP’s clarification appeared to apply broadly, not only to Switzerland but to imports of those bar sizes from any country. That raised questions about the potential scope of the tariffs, which could affect bullion flows from other refining hubs as well.

The uncertainty briefly lit a fire under gold futures, as traders weighed the possibility of higher costs for physical delivery and tighter supply chains. Investors often turn to gold during geopolitical or trade-related turbulence, and the mere prospect of import restrictions can drive prices higher in the short term.

President Donald Trump’s administration has already levied sweeping tariffs on a range of Swiss goods this year, citing trade imbalances and what it says are unfair competitive practices. The gold bar question emerged as a flashpoint this week, underscoring how commodity markets can be caught in the crossfire of broader trade disputes.

Analysts say the White House clarification could help temper volatility, though the path forward for bullion prices will still hinge on multiple factors — including the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory, inflation expectations, and global risk sentiment.

“Gold remains in a structurally bullish environment,” said one commodities strategist. “But if the White House makes it clear that bullion imports won’t face steep tariffs, some of the recent froth in prices could dissipate.”

Even after Friday’s dip, gold is up sharply for the year as investors hedge against currency fluctuations, equity market risks, and a shifting macroeconomic backdrop. Traders will be watching closely for the promised executive order, which could arrive within days and help determine whether the latest rally has room to run or is due for a deeper correction.

Gold Keeps Climbing — Is It Time to Look Closer at Precious Metals and Rare Earths?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Gold prices remain strong as investors seek stability in volatile markets.
– Precious metals and rare earths are gaining renewed interest as geopolitical and economic uncertainty rises.
– Small-cap mining and metals companies may offer overlooked upside for risk-conscious investors.

With market volatility back in the headlines and rate cuts on hold, one asset class is quietly shining brighter than the rest: gold. The precious metal has extended its multi-month rally, continuing to hit near-record highs in 2025 as investors worldwide look for safer stores of value.

But this isn’t just about jewelry or bullion. What’s developing beneath the surface is a broader shift in capital flows — away from high-growth risk plays and into hard assets with intrinsic value. That includes not only gold and silver, but also rare earth metals, which are essential to everything from electric vehicles to semiconductors and military tech.

For middle market and small-cap investors, this could mark a key turning point.

Historically, gold performs well during periods of economic instability, inflationary pressure, and geopolitical stress — all conditions currently in play. With inflation proving sticky, central banks cautious on cuts, and conflict hotspots simmering, it’s no surprise institutional and retail investors alike are allocating more to precious metals.

Meanwhile, silver — often seen as gold’s more volatile cousin — has also begun to rally. With industrial use cases tied to clean energy, solar, and advanced tech manufacturing, silver offers a dual benefit: monetary safety and industrial upside.

But perhaps most interesting for middle-market investors is the renewed focus on rare earths — a segment often overlooked but increasingly critical in a tech-dependent world. These niche metals, such as neodymium, dysprosium, and praseodymium, are essential to magnets, batteries, and defense systems. With global supply chains still fragile and China dominating production, the U.S. and its allies are looking to diversify supply — and that puts smaller mining firms in the spotlight.

Companies in the junior mining and exploration space — many trading at micro- and small-cap valuations — could stand to benefit the most. While they carry exploration risk, the potential for outsized returns and strategic partnerships is drawing attention from institutional funds, especially those focused on ESG and supply chain security.

Gold’s continued rise isn’t just a price story — it’s a signal. A signal that investors are recalibrating their portfolios toward resilience, scarcity, and real-world utility.

For investors navigating uncertain terrain, exposure to precious and rare earth metals — whether through physical assets, ETFs, or small-cap equities — offers a compelling hedge. And with much of the sector still under the radar, now may be an ideal time to explore opportunities before the crowd catches on.

Take a moment to take a closer look at more emerging growth basic industries companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list.

AngloGold Ashanti to Acquire Augusta Gold, Strengthening Its Hold in Nevada’s Beatty District

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

AngloGold Ashanti has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Augusta Gold Corp. in a deal valued at approximately C$152 million (US$111 million), marking a strategic move to consolidate its footprint in the Beatty District of Nevada—one of the most promising gold regions in North America.

The all-cash transaction offers C$1.70 per share to Augusta Gold shareholders, representing a 28% premium over the company’s July 15 closing price and a 37% premium over its 20-day volume-weighted average. The acquisition also includes the repayment of shareholder loans amounting to US$32.6 million as of March 31, 2025.

AngloGold Ashanti’s acquisition of Augusta Gold is aimed at bolstering its development plans in the Beatty District. The deal includes Augusta Gold’s key assets—namely the Reward and Bullfrog projects, both adjacent to AngloGold Ashanti’s existing land holdings.

“This acquisition reinforces the value we see in one of North America’s most prolific gold districts,” said Alberto Calderon, CEO of AngloGold Ashanti. “It strengthens our ability to plan and develop this region under an integrated strategy—streamlining operations, improving infrastructure access, and enhancing stakeholder collaboration.”

The Reward project is a permitted, feasibility-stage asset, while the Bullfrog deposit brings significant additional mineral resources. The acquired properties also come with surrounding tenements, further expanding AngloGold’s regional influence.

Under the agreement, Augusta Gold will become an indirect, wholly owned subsidiary of AngloGold Ashanti. Upon closing, its shares will be delisted from public exchanges and cease trading over-the-counter.

The deal has received unanimous approval from Augusta Gold’s board of directors and its audit committee. Furthermore, key shareholders—representing approximately 31.5% of Augusta’s outstanding stock—have signed voting support agreements to approve the merger.

The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, pending standard regulatory and shareholder approvals. Augusta Gold will seek approval from a majority of shareholders, excluding related parties, at a special meeting later this year.

AngloGold Ashanti is working with RBC Capital Markets as financial advisor, with legal counsel provided by Womble Bond Dickinson (US) LLP, Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP in the U.S., and Stikeman Elliott LLP in Canada.

Headquartered in Denver, AngloGold Ashanti is a leading global gold mining company with operations, projects, and exploration activities across ten countries on four continents. The company’s expansion in the U.S. through strategic acquisitions is part of its broader plan to enhance production capabilities and resource access in high-potential districts.

As the Beatty District emerges as a critical gold hub, this acquisition marks a significant milestone for AngloGold Ashanti. By integrating Augusta Gold’s assets, the company aims to unlock further value in the region, streamline its development efforts, and reinforce its status as a dominant force in North American gold mining.

Silver’s Perfect Storm: Physical Squeeze Drives Prices to 13-Year Highs

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Silver prices surged to their highest level since 2011 this week, fueled by rising premiums in the U.S., tight physical supply in London, and increasing industrial demand. The white metal climbed as high as $37.59 per ounce in the spot market, with U.S. futures contracts pushing toward $38.46—an unusually large gap that signals growing pressure in the global silver supply chain.

This recent rally underscores silver’s unique status as both a monetary asset and a critical industrial material, especially in sectors tied to clean energy. Up more than 27% year-to-date, silver has begun to outpace gold and other precious metals, attracting the attention of traders, long-term investors, and industrial buyers alike.

One of the more telling developments this week is the growing dislocation between the London spot price and U.S. futures contracts. Typically, such discrepancies are short-lived as traders use arbitrage to align prices. But this time, the gap is persisting—indicating logistical constraints and a tightening supply chain.

The root of this premium appears to stem from earlier in the year, when U.S. tariff threats on silver imports spurred a surge in futures prices. That sparked a rush to secure physical metal for delivery to New York’s COMEX warehouses. While the White House later confirmed that bullion would not be exempt from tariffs, the resulting outflow drained accessible inventories.

According to Daniel Ghali of TD Securities, the silver floating in the market is now at record lows. LBMA silver’s free-float has reached its lowest levels in recorded history, with analysts emphasizing that a physical squeeze may be necessary to rebalance the market.

Another warning sign: borrowing costs for silver in London have surged. The one-month implied lease rate jumped to an annualized 4.5% on Friday—well above its usual near-zero levels. This is a clear indicator that silver in London is becoming harder to access, particularly for short sellers and industrial users that rely on short-term lending of physical silver.

Much of London’s silver is held by exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are not easily available for lending. Bloomberg data shows a 1.1 million ounce inflow into silver-backed ETFs on Thursday alone. While this is good news for long-term investors, it exacerbates near-term scarcity for traders seeking physical delivery.

Silver’s recent surge is also being driven by robust demand from both sides of its identity: as a safe-haven asset and as an industrial input. Its role in clean energy—especially in photovoltaic solar panels—has elevated silver’s strategic importance. According to the Silver Institute, the market is now in its fifth consecutive annual deficit.

As the world pushes further into renewable energy technologies, demand for silver in solar, EVs, and advanced electronics is expected to accelerate.

With inventory levels falling, premiums rising, and industrial demand growing, silver’s bullish outlook appears to be more than a short-term spike. If market dislocations persist and supply tightness continues, silver could enter a new phase of price discovery—driven as much by fundamentals as by financial flows.

Investors would be wise to watch the $40 level as the next psychological milestone. And if the physical squeeze intensifies, we may be entering a new era for this historically underappreciated metal.

Comstock (LODE) – Maximizing the Value of Comstock’s Mining Assets

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, June 10, 2025

Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Amended agreement with Mackay Precious Metals. Comstock Inc. amended the membership interest purchase agreement to sell 100% of its northern most patented and unpatented mining claims, mineral exploration rights and town lots owned by Comstock Northern Exploration, LLC, plus the 25% issued and outstanding membership interest that Comstock owns in Pelen LLC to Mackay Precious Metals Inc. Consideration includes $2.95 million in cash plus a 1.5% NSR production royalty associated with the properties.

More favorable terms. The amendment increases the sale price to $2.95 million in cash from the previous $2.75 million in both cash and stock, thus increasing the cash component of the transaction by $1.2 million. Comstock previously received $1.0 million in cash. The remaining $1.95 million is due in a series of payments in June, July, and ending on or before August 30. Additionally, Mackay will transfer approximately 300 acres of patented and unpatented mining properties in Lyon County, Nevada, that are adjacent to and expand the area of Comstock’s Dayton Consolidated and Spring Valley mineral claims and lands for no consideration.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Gold Nears All-Time Highs: Why It’s Defying the Typical Market Cycle

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Gold surges as investors seek safety from Trump’s tariff threats.
– U.S. fiscal worries and a weaker dollar drive demand for gold.
– Gold defies norms, staying strong despite rising Treasury yields.

Gold is trading just a few percentage points below its all-time highs, confounding expectations for a significant retracement typical of most asset classes. In a normal market cycle, rapid price increases are often followed by pullbacks as traders take profits and reassess fundamentals. But gold’s current behavior suggests that broader forces are at play, reshaping how investors evaluate risk and value in today’s geopolitical and macroeconomic landscape.

As of May 23, 2025, gold surged nearly 2% to $3,357.78 an ounce, extending its weekly gain toward 5%. This spike follows fresh threats from former President Donald Trump, who vowed to impose sweeping tariffs on the European Union and Apple Inc. These geopolitical tensions have reignited demand for gold as a safe haven, a traditional response to rising uncertainty.

According to a Bloomberg report, Trump’s proposed 50% tariffs on EU goods and a minimum 25% tariff on Apple if it fails to manufacture in the U.S. rattled financial markets. U.S. equity futures dropped in response, highlighting investor unease. At the same time, bullion prices surged as traders sought refuge from the volatility.

But tariffs alone don’t explain why gold is hovering so close to record highs without a typical retracement. Several structural shifts underpin the resilience of gold in this cycle.

First, gold is being buoyed by deep concerns over U.S. fiscal health. Moody’s recently downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing fears that the government’s ballooning deficit—exacerbated by Trump’s tax proposals—could worsen. With trust in government debt shaken, gold has gained favor as a store of value.

Second, the usual inverse relationship between gold and Treasury yields appears to be breaking down. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries have risen to around 4.5%, a level that would historically undermine gold, which offers no yield. However, this time, investors are prioritizing safety over returns. The desire to shield portfolios from political and economic instability is overriding traditional valuation models.

Third, the macroeconomic backdrop includes a weakening U.S. dollar, as evidenced by the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipping 0.6% for the week. A softer dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, further boosting demand.

Finally, investor psychology has shifted. Gold’s surge of over 25% this year has created a momentum-driven market where fear of missing out (FOMO) is fueling further buying. This sentiment-driven rally leaves little room for retracement, especially when headlines continue to reinforce the bullish narrative.

In conclusion, gold’s current strength—so close to its peak with little sign of reversal—reflects more than just a temporary flight to safety. It signals a deeper lack of confidence in traditional hedges like government bonds and an increasingly uncertain geopolitical environment. Until those pressures ease, gold may not follow the rules of a “normal” market cycle.

Gold’s Surge Revives Investor Interest in Mining Stocks

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Gold miners’ equity funds are seeing their largest net inflows in over a year as gold prices reach record highs.
– After years of cost struggles, major miners like Newmont and Barrick Gold are benefiting from increased profitability and stronger cash flows.
– Investors are turning back to mining stocks as a hedge against inflation and market uncertainty.

After months of outflows, investors are returning to gold mining stocks, buoyed by record-high gold prices that have improved the profit outlook for mining firms. With gold surpassing $3,000 an ounce this year—a gain of more than 15%—funds investing in gold miners saw their first net monthly inflow in six months this March, totaling $555.3 million, according to LSEG Lipper data.

While gold prices also climbed in 2024, gold miners faced mounting cost pressures from rising labor and fuel expenses, as well as regulatory setbacks like tax disputes in Mali and project delays in Canada. These challenges pushed many investors toward traditional gold funds instead of equities, leading to a net $4.6 billion outflow from gold miner-focused funds in 2024—the highest in a decade. Conversely, physical gold and gold derivative funds attracted $17.8 billion, the most in five years.

With rising gold prices boosting profitability, mining stocks are once again attracting investor interest. Leading companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold have recovered from last year’s declines, posting year-to-date gains of 27% and 21.5%, respectively. After facing cost pressures in recent years, gold mining firms are now in a stronger position to capitalize on higher gold prices, making them more appealing to investors.

The improved market conditions are prompting major gold miners to reward shareholders. Barrick Gold recently announced a $1 billion share buyback after reporting strong profits and doubling its free cash flow in Q4 2024. Similarly, AngloGold Ashanti declared a final dividend of 91 U.S. cents per share—nearly five times higher than the previous year—while Gold Fields hinted at a potential share buyback in 2025. Harmony Gold also revealed plans to self-fund the construction of a new copper mine in Australia.

With miners stabilizing operations and benefiting from higher gold prices, mining equities are increasingly viewed as an attractive investment. As market uncertainty and inflation persist, investors are showing renewed interest in gold mining stocks as a potential hedge and diversification strategy.

Given the miners’ historically low valuations, some analysts argue that gold mining stocks may present even better opportunities than gold itself. As confidence in gold miners grows alongside surging gold prices, these stocks may continue to attract investors seeking stability in an unpredictable market.

Smaller and junior gold mining companies stand to benefit significantly from this renewed investor interest in mining stocks. Unlike major miners, which already have strong cash flows and established operations, junior miners often struggle with financing new projects and navigating regulatory hurdles. However, with gold prices at record highs, investor appetite for higher-risk, high-reward opportunities may increase, providing these smaller companies with much-needed capital.

Higher gold prices also make previously unviable mining projects more attractive, allowing junior miners to push forward with exploration and development. Companies with promising gold reserves but lacking production capabilities may now find it easier to secure funding through equity offerings or partnerships with larger mining firms.

Additionally, with major miners focusing on share buybacks and dividends, they may look to acquire smaller mining companies to replenish their reserves, driving M&A activity in the sector. This could create lucrative exit opportunities for junior miners and early-stage investors.

Gold Surges to Historic High as Economic Uncertainties Mount

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Gold hits record $2,817/oz amid dollar weakness and trade policy concerns
– Trump’s proposed tariffs spark renewed interest in safe-haven assets
– Federal Reserve adopts cautious stance on rate cuts amid policy uncertainty

Gold prices reached an unprecedented peak of $2,817 per ounce, marking a 1.4% surge amid growing economic uncertainties and a weakening dollar. The precious metal’s rally reflects mounting investor concerns over President Trump’s proposed tariff measures and their potential impact on global trade relations.

The rally comes as traders digest Trump’s latest announcement of potential 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with hints of broader levies that could exceed previous Treasury estimates. This policy uncertainty, coupled with a softer dollar following the European Central Bank’s rate decision, has intensified the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

The Federal Reserve’s recent “wait-and-see” stance, articulated by Chair Jerome Powell during the year’s first FOMC meeting, has added another layer of complexity to the market dynamics. While holding interest rates steady, the Fed expressed caution about rushing into rate cuts, particularly given the uncertain impact of the new administration’s economic policies.

Market strategists, including Phil Streible of Blue Line Futures, point to growing concerns about stagflation – a combination of rising inflation and declining growth – as a key driver behind gold’s attractiveness. The precious metal historically performs well in such economic conditions, making it an increasingly appealing hedge for investors.

The rally has sparked a notable shift in precious metals markets, with U.S. prices for both gold and silver commanding premiums over international benchmarks. Dealers and traders are accelerating efforts to secure inventory ahead of potential tariff implementation, further driving up domestic prices.

Beyond immediate trade concerns, the precious metal’s appeal is bolstered by persistent worries over growing U.S. debt levels. Many analysts anticipate continued strength in gold prices throughout 2025, supported by central banks’ efforts to diversify reserves and reduce dollar dependency.

The latest surge represents a significant milestone in gold’s historical trajectory, surpassing the previous record set in October. This breakthrough is particularly notable as it comes during a period of relative economic strength, suggesting that investors are increasingly viewing gold as both a hedge against uncertainty and a strategic asset class in diversified portfolios.

The current gold market dynamics echo historical patterns of price appreciation during periods of significant policy shifts and economic uncertainty. Historical data shows that gold has typically performed strongly during periods of trade tensions and currency fluctuations, with the metal gaining an average of 15% during similar periods of policy uncertainty in the past two decades

Market watchers are particularly focused on the Saturday deadline for Mexican and Canadian tariffs, which could trigger further volatility in precious metals markets and potentially drive gold to new records as investors seek safety amid economic policy shifts.

Take a moment to look at emerging gold mining companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list.

Probe Gold Expands its Monique Gold Deposit with Key Acquisition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Probe Gold acquires Bermont Claims to extend Monique Deposit’s strike length by 750 meters, adding exploration potential.
– Historical drilling identified high-grade gold zones, including intercepts of up to 30.9 g/t gold over 1.6 meters.
– The acquisition expands surface mine infrastructure, facilitating operational efficiencies and reduced costs.

Probe Gold Inc. has announced the acquisition of the Bermont Claims property, strategically located adjacent to its Monique Gold Deposit in Val-d’Or, Quebec. This move is poised to extend the strike length of the Monique Deposit by 750 meters, offering significant opportunities for resource expansion and exploration. The transaction aligns with Probe Gold’s commitment to maximizing the potential of its Novador Development Project and advancing high-quality gold resources.

The newly acquired property spans ten contiguous claims and adds critical exploration upside. Historical drilling has identified high-grade gold zones, including the Bermont and Adelemont zones, which remain open laterally and at depth. Despite limited exploration, previous results from the property demonstrate promising grades, such as 30.9 g/t gold over 1.6 meters and 5.7 g/t gold over 3.2 meters. Probe Gold plans to incorporate this land into its 2025 exploration and resource expansion programs, focusing on uncovering additional high-grade mineralization.

David Palmer, President and CEO of Probe Gold, emphasized the strategic value of this acquisition. “This new land enhances our Monique Deposit by increasing exploration potential by 30%, while also offering critical space for surface mine infrastructure,” Palmer stated. He further highlighted the acquisition’s potential to unlock new high-grade discoveries and contribute to an even more robust Novador Development Project.

The transaction includes an upfront payment of $3 million, split evenly between cash and common shares of Probe Gold. Additionally, a $1.5 million milestone payment, in cash or shares, will be made upon confirming a resource of at least 1 million ounces of gold on the property. Jadmine, the seller, will retain a 3.5% net smelter return royalty, of which 2.5% can be purchased by Probe Gold for $2.5 million.

The Bermont Claims property complements the Monique Deposit, which currently hosts 3.56 million ounces of measured and indicated resources and 677,300 ounces of inferred resources. Geological similarities between the Bermont Claims and Monique Deposit strengthen the potential for integrating new discoveries into Probe’s existing operations. Moreover, the property’s expanded surface area is expected to facilitate mine design improvements, reducing costs and increasing operational efficiency.

Since 2016, Probe Gold has been consolidating its position in the Val-d’Or mining district, known for its prolific gold production and mining-friendly environment. The Novador Development Project, which hosts four past-producing mines and accounts for 80% of the company’s gold resources, is central to Probe Gold’s strategy. This acquisition aligns with the company’s focus on advancing resource-rich properties in politically stable and low-cost regions.

The deal is expected to close in the coming weeks, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. With an aggressive exploration plan set for 2025, Probe Gold aims to leverage this acquisition to enhance its production profile and create long-term value for shareholders.

As the Monique Deposit grows in scope and potential, Probe Gold solidifies its position as a leader in the Canadian gold mining industry, driving forward with a vision for sustainable growth and innovation.

Gold Prices Dip as Fed Meeting Looms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– Gold fell 0.6% to $2,636.89 per ounce as the dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
– A widely expected 25 basis-point Fed rate cut this week has not buoyed gold, with attention shifting to 2025 projections.
– Other precious metals, including silver, platinum, and palladium, also saw declines.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as market participants adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve policy in 2025. Spot gold dropped by 0.6% to $2,636.89 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures declined 0.7% to $2,650.50. The precious metal faced downward pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, signaling a cautious investor outlook ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year.

Key Drivers of Gold’s Retreat

Federal Reserve Expectations: Investors anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut during this week’s meeting, with a staggering 97% probability according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. However, projections for 2025 suggest a more gradual pace of easing, tempering gold’s appeal. Analysts believe this cautious approach reflects lingering concerns over inflation and economic stability.The Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections and the dot plot are expected to shed light on how policymakers view the trajectory of interest rates in the years ahead. A more hawkish stance than currently anticipated could put additional pressure on gold prices, as higher rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Economic Data Signals: Strong U.S. retail sales in November and recent warmer inflation readings have introduced the possibility that the Fed could pause additional rate cuts in January, adding uncertainty to the outlook for gold. Robust consumer spending, which has been a key driver of economic growth, suggests that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite previous rate hikes. This resilience could push the Fed to adopt a more measured approach to future rate cuts, weighing on gold’s safe-haven demand.

Currency and Bond Market Impact: A modest 0.1% gain in the U.S. dollar index made gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. Concurrently, 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a four-week high, further diminishing bullion’s allure. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, prompting some investors to shift toward income-generating assets.

    Market Insights

    Analysts remain cautious about gold’s near-term trajectory. “Heading into the Fed meeting, risks for gold are actually tilted to the downside,” noted Zain Vawda of MarketPulse. Similarly, Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com highlighted the importance of the Fed’s stance on rate cuts in shaping market sentiment. If the Fed signals a more cautious approach to easing, gold could face continued headwinds.

    Beyond the immediate Fed meeting, traders are also eyeing key U.S. GDP and inflation data due later this week. These indicators will provide further clarity on the economic outlook and could influence gold’s performance heading into 2024. Historically, gold has thrived in low-interest-rate environments, but the prospect of a slower pace of rate cuts could limit its upside momentum.

    Broader Precious Metals Market

    The decline in gold was mirrored across other metals:

    • Silver: Fell 0.7% to $30.30 per ounce, as the industrial metal reacted to broader economic signals and a stronger dollar.
    • Platinum: Dropped 0.3% to $932.93 per ounce, weighed down by weak demand prospects in the automotive sector.
    • Palladium: Declined 1.5% to $932.75 per ounce, continuing its downward trend amid waning interest from industrial buyers.

    These moves underscore the interconnected nature of precious metals markets, where factors such as dollar strength and interest rate expectations play a pivotal role.

    Looking Ahead

    Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. GDP and inflation data later this week for further insights. Gold’s performance in the near term will hinge on how the Fed’s messaging aligns with market expectations. Additionally, geopolitical uncertainties and potential shifts in global monetary policy could impact gold’s safe-haven appeal.

    For now, the metal’s trajectory remains uncertain, with market sentiment hinging on the Fed’s ability to balance inflation control with economic growth. As the central bank’s decisions unfold, gold traders will need to stay nimble to navigate the evolving landscape.

    Gold Hits One-Week High Amid Russia-Ukraine War Escalation

    Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
    Key Points:
    – Gold Hits $2,630: Nuclear fears in the Russia-Ukraine war drive demand.
    – 27% YTD Gain: Gold outpaces S&P 500 as central banks boost reserves.
    – $3K Target: Goldman sees current prices as a buying opportunity.

    Gold prices surged to a one-week high, trading near $2,630 per ounce on Tuesday, as escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict heightened fears of a potential nuclear threat. The precious metal, often regarded as a safe haven during times of geopolitical uncertainty, saw increased demand as investors sought stability amidst rising global risks.

    The climb in gold futures came after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine that lowers the threshold for deploying nuclear weapons. This development coincided with the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine access to long-range U.S.-made missiles, enabling deeper strikes into Russian territory. These moves intensified concerns about the broader implications of the conflict, driving investors toward assets perceived as more secure.

    While the U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) has strengthened in recent weeks, contributing to a decline in gold prices post-election, the precious metal remains one of the strongest-performing assets of the year. Gold has risen approximately 27% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500’s 23% gain over the same period. This robust performance is attributed, in part, to central banks around the world increasing their gold reserves, signaling confidence in its long-term value.

    Analysts at Goldman Sachs highlighted the investment potential of gold in light of its recent price consolidation following the U.S. elections. In a report released over the weekend, the firm urged investors to consider going “long gold,” citing a favorable buying opportunity. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish outlook for the commodity, projecting a price target of $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025.

    “The gold price consolidation following the orderly U.S. election — flushing speculative positioning from near all-time highs — provides an attractive entry point to buy gold,” the analysts noted.

    A key factor behind gold’s sustained momentum is the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward lower interest rates. As a non-yield-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive in a low-interest-rate environment, where the opportunity cost of holding it decreases. This shift in monetary policy has further supported the metal’s rally in recent months.

    Additionally, central banks worldwide have been aggressively bolstering their gold reserves, reinforcing its status as a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability. The ongoing accumulation by these institutions underscores the asset’s enduring appeal in uncertain times.

    As the Russia-Ukraine conflict evolves, gold’s role as a hedge against global instability is likely to remain in focus. With escalating geopolitical tensions and continued central bank support, the metal appears well-positioned for further gains.

    Investors will also keep a close eye on broader economic trends, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and shifts in global market sentiment, which could influence gold’s trajectory in the months ahead.

    In a volatile world, gold’s enduring value as a store of wealth and a hedge against uncertainty continues to shine. As geopolitical risks intensify, the precious metal’s appeal as a safe haven remains as strong as ever.

    Aurania Resources (AUIAF) – Setting Up for the 2025 Drilling Program

    Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


    Monday, November 04, 2024

    Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

    Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

    Kuri-Yawi geophysical survey. Aurania commenced an induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey over its Kuri-Yawi gold target where the discovery of numerous sinters in 2018 revealed the area to be highly prospective for epithermal gold mineralization. Kuri-Yawi is the most advanced epithermal target at the company’s Lost Cities-Cutucu project in southeastern Ecuador and may represent the quickest path for a successful outcome based on work that has already been completed, along with easy access. In 2020 and 2021, nine scout holes were drilled that indicated a vector to mineralization toward the northeast which is the focus of the IP survey.

    Preparing for the 2025 drilling program. The IP survey is designed to identify deep conductors that could correspond to gold mineralization, and to target drill holes for the planned program in 2025. The IP survey is expected to be completed by mid-December 2024, with results expected in early 2025 following a review and interpretation of the data.


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    Gold Nears Record High as US Data Suggest Further Rate Cuts

    Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
    Key Points:
    – Gold trades near its record high, driven by weak US economic data and rising rate cut expectations.
    – Gold has surged 29% this year, with silver also gaining 34%, supported by Fed rate cuts and strong central bank purchases.
    – Investors anticipate further gains in precious metals due to geopolitical tensions and US monetary policy shifts.

    Gold prices are trading near record highs as weak US economic data strengthens the case for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, bullion reached a peak of $2,670.57 an ounce before stabilizing at $2,657.73, reflecting a 29% rise this year. Silver has also seen substantial gains, increasing by 34% since January.

    The recent spike in gold prices follows a report indicating a sharp decline in US consumer confidence, marking the largest drop in three years. This data has led swaps traders to increase bets on deeper cuts, expecting the Federal Reserve to lower rates by three-quarters of a point by the end of the year. Lower interest rates typically boost demand for gold, which doesn’t generate interest or dividends, making it an attractive asset in a low-rate environment. The rate cuts have also weakened the US dollar, further supporting gold by making it cheaper for international buyers.

    Silver, often trading in tandem with gold, is benefitting from its dual role as both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. Its use in clean-energy technologies, such as solar panels, gives it additional exposure to the global economic cycle. As a result, silver prices have closely followed gold’s upward trajectory. Analysts from Standard Chartered and UBS expect silver to continue outperforming in the current market conditions, given the rising demand for industrial metals driven by global clean energy initiatives and the broader economic recovery.

    Geopolitical tensions are also bolstering the demand for gold, with the precious metal seen as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. With less than six weeks until the US presidential election, the financial markets are bracing for potential volatility. Political uncertainty, coupled with a broader global economic slowdown, has fueled a rush toward assets like gold and silver, which are considered more stable in times of turmoil.

    Looking ahead, major banks, including J.P. Morgan, UBS, and Goldman Sachs, predict that gold’s upward trend will persist into 2025. Many of these forecasts are based on continued inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by central banks around the world. For instance, J.P. Morgan anticipates that gold could reach $2,775 per ounce by next year, with a potential spike toward $3,000 in 2025. These bullish forecasts reflect a broader market sentiment that gold’s rally is far from over, particularly as the Federal Reserve continues its easing cycle to counter economic slowdowns.

    While gold and silver investors are enjoying the current market rally, other sectors, particularly industrial metals, have also seen benefits. Beijing’s announcement of stimulus measures aimed at reviving China’s economy has led to increased demand for metals used in construction and technology, further supporting the price of silver. As these global economic trends continue to unfold, investors will keep a close eye on additional US data, such as the personal consumption expenditures gauge and jobless claims, to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next move.