Tag: Precious Metals

Gold and Silver Shatter Records as Investors Flock to Hard Assets Amid Global Uncertainty

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Precious metals are closing out the year with extraordinary momentum, underscoring a broader shift in global investment sentiment toward safety, scarcity, and real assets. Gold, silver, and platinum all surged to fresh all-time highs this week, extending one of the strongest rallies in modern market history and signaling growing unease beneath the surface of global financial markets.

Spot gold climbed above $4,530 an ounce, capping a year in which the metal has gained roughly 70%. Silver has been even more explosive, soaring more than 150% year-to-date and briefly crossing the $75 mark. Platinum, often overshadowed by its peers, has joined the rally with force, jumping more than 40% in December alone as supply deficits tighten and industrial demand rebounds.

At its core, the rally reflects a powerful shift in investor psychology. Heightened geopolitical tensions—from US actions in Venezuela to military operations in Africa—have revived gold’s traditional role as a safe-haven asset. At the same time, a weakening US dollar has amplified gains, making dollar-priced commodities more attractive to global investors. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index’s sharp weekly decline has provided fresh fuel for metals already in motion.

Monetary policy has played an equally important role. Three interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve this year have reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver. With markets increasingly pricing in further easing in 2026, investors are positioning ahead of a prolonged low-rate environment. The result has been strong inflows into exchange-traded funds, particularly gold-backed vehicles, signaling institutional conviction rather than short-term speculation.

Beyond macro policy, deeper structural concerns are driving what many analysts describe as the “debasement trade.” Rising government debt levels, persistent fiscal deficits, and political pressure on central bank independence have eroded confidence in fiat currencies and sovereign bonds. In response, investors are reallocating toward tangible assets perceived as stores of value in an era of monetary experimentation.

Silver’s rally highlights another critical theme: supply constraints meeting financial leverage. Following a historic short squeeze earlier in the year, physical silver availability remains tight across key global hubs. While speculative positions continue to grow on paper, the limited supply of deliverable metal has intensified price pressures. Potential US trade restrictions on critical mineral imports have only added to the uncertainty, reinforcing silver’s dual appeal as both a monetary and industrial asset.

Platinum’s surge reflects similar dynamics. Persistent supply disruptions in South Africa, combined with strong demand from automotive and jewelry sectors, have pushed the market into its third consecutive annual deficit. As investors broaden their exposure beyond gold, platinum is increasingly viewed as an undervalued hedge with asymmetric upside.

Taken together, the record-breaking rally in precious metals is not an isolated phenomenon—it is a mirror of today’s investment landscape. While equity markets remain resilient, the surge in hard assets suggests investors are quietly hedging against volatility, policy risk, and currency erosion. As the year draws to a close, gold and silver’s ascent sends a clear message: confidence may be high on the surface, but caution is deeply embedded in global portfolios.

Kuya Silver (KUYAF) – Umm Hadid: Early-Stage Discovery

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, December 23, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

High-grade silver-gold system confirmed. Kuya Silver reported strong initial exploration results from the Umm Hadid Project in Saudi Arabia, confirming high-grade silver-gold mineralization over a large area measuring approximately 6.0 km by 2.5 km. In our view, the scale of the mineralized footprint and grade tenor materially de-risks the project at an early stage. Umm Hadid is operated by Silver Mining LLC, a joint venture between Sumou Holding and Kuya Silver.

Maiden drilling validates surface results. The first drill program comprised 29 diamond drill holes totaling roughly 5,000 meters across three target areas defined by surface sampling. Drilling returned high-grade intercepts of up to 1,483.9 g/t silver equivalent over two meters, with several additional intersections grading several hundred grams per tonne. Surface sampling of 460 grab samples averaged 86.1 g/t silver equivalent, with peak values reaching 1,359.8 g/t. We believe a strong gold-silver correlation supports the presence of a large hydrothermal system.


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Gold and Silver Surge to All-Time Highs as Geopolitical Risks Reshape Global Markets

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold and silver have surged to historic highs, underscoring a powerful shift in global investor sentiment as geopolitical tensions intensify and confidence in traditional financial systems continues to erode. The rally marks one of the strongest performances for precious metals in more than four decades, driven by a potent mix of political uncertainty, monetary policy expectations, and structural demand.

Gold briefly climbed above $4,400 per ounce, eclipsing its previous record set earlier this year, while silver pushed toward the $70 level, a price not seen in modern trading history. These moves are not isolated technical breakouts; they reflect a broader re-pricing of risk across global markets as investors seek safety amid escalating international conflicts and economic uncertainty.

Geopolitical flashpoints have multiplied in recent months. The United States has intensified economic and energy pressure on Venezuela, while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has expanded beyond traditional battlefields into global shipping lanes. Meanwhile, rising tensions between major world powers — including strained U.S.–China relations and growing unease in parts of Asia — have added to a climate of persistent instability. Historically, such environments have favored hard assets, and this cycle is proving no different.

At the same time, expectations for looser monetary policy have reinforced the rally. Markets are increasingly pricing in multiple U.S. interest rate cuts in 2026 as economic data shows signs of cooling inflation and slower job growth. Lower interest rates tend to weaken the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver, making them more attractive relative to bonds and cash.

Central banks have played a critical role in underpinning gold’s rise. Official sector purchases remain elevated as nations diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar and reduce exposure to sovereign debt. This trend has been amplified by political rhetoric that has raised concerns about the long-term independence of central banks and the sustainability of ballooning government deficits.

Investor demand has followed suit. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds have recorded steady inflows, while silver has benefited from speculative activity and lingering supply disruptions following a historic short squeeze earlier in the year. Industrial demand — particularly for silver and platinum in energy, technology, and manufacturing — has added another layer of support.

Beyond traditional investors, new participants are entering the precious metals market. Corporate treasuries, alternative asset managers, and even stablecoin issuers are increasingly using physical metals as balance-sheet hedges, broadening the capital base supporting prices and making demand more resilient.

Looking ahead, major financial institutions remain bullish. Several banks project gold prices continuing higher into 2026, citing constrained physical supply, sustained central-bank buying, and ongoing geopolitical risk. While short-term volatility is inevitable, the underlying drivers of the rally appear firmly intact.

In an era defined by geopolitical fragmentation, monetary uncertainty, and rising systemic risk, gold and silver are once again fulfilling their historical role: not just as commodities, but as financial insurance in an increasingly unpredictable world.

Gold Royalty Corp. Expands Cash-Flowing Portfolio With $70 Million Pedra Branca Royalty Acquisition

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold Royalty Corp. (NYSE American: GROY) has announced a transformative move in the royalty and streaming sector with its agreement to acquire a producing gold and copper royalty on Brazil’s Pedra Branca mine for $70 million in cash. Purchased from BlackRock World Mining Trust, the royalty provides immediate cash flow and deepens Gold Royalty’s exposure to two high-demand commodities—gold and copper.

For investors in the small- and micro-cap mining space, this acquisition highlights a broader trend: royalty companies are aggressively consolidating producing assets to secure predictable cash flows, diversify commodity exposure, and strengthen long-term valuations. While major mining companies dominate production, royalty firms offer smaller investors a unique, lower-risk gateway into commodity cycles—without the operational burdens of running mines.

A Material Boost to Revenue and Scale

The Pedra Branca royalty has already proven its value. In the 12 months ending June 30, 2025, the royalty generated approximately $7.9 million in payments, equivalent to roughly 2,800 gold equivalent ounces at average market prices. With gold trading near historic highs, Gold Royalty expects the asset to substantially increase its annual cash flow once the transaction closes.

Upon completion, Gold Royalty’s portfolio will expand to eight cash-flowing assets and more than 250 total royalties and streaming interests—a notable milestone for a company operating in the small-cap end of the market.

For investors, this means greater revenue stability and enhanced leverage to commodity prices, particularly as gold continues to maintain strength amid global geopolitical tensions and monetary policy uncertainty.

Strategic Exposure to Gold and Copper

The acquired royalty includes a 25% net smelter return (NSR) on gold and a 2% NSR on copper from both the Pedra Branca East and West deposits. This structure provides meaningful long-term upside, especially given copper’s accelerating role in electric vehicles, renewable power grids, and energy transition infrastructure.

This is particularly impactful for micro-cap investors looking for diversified commodity exposure without betting on early-stage exploration companies. Royalty companies like Gold Royalty provide balanced exposure to producing assets with potentially exponential upside tied to commodity cycles.

Pedra Branca: A High-Quality, Long-Life Asset

First brought into production in 2020 by OZ Minerals, Pedra Branca is an underground iron oxide copper gold deposit located in Pará, Brazil—a region known for world-class minerals, infrastructure, and established operators. BHP acquired the mine through its purchase of OZ Minerals in 2023, and later announced its sale to CoreX Holding BV, expected to close following standard regulatory approvals.

BHP’s June 2025 reporting outlined strong resource and reserve estimates, reinforcing Pedra Branca’s long-term production outlook. For Gold Royalty, this means stable, ongoing royalty income tied to a proven, expanding asset.

A Meaningful Signal for the Mining Royalty Space

For small- and micro-cap investors, this transaction reinforces a clear shift in the mining sector: royalty and streaming companies are becoming key players in securing low-risk exposure to commodity cycles.

As many smaller mining operators struggle with rising development and operational costs, royalty firms with strong balance sheets—like Gold Royalty—are in a prime position to acquire high-value producing royalties at attractive prices.

The Pedra Branca acquisition demonstrates Gold Royalty’s disciplined strategy, strengthening its cash flow base while delivering upside potential tied to gold and copper markets that continue to attract global investor interest.

Gold Holds Steady Near $4,000 as Investors Await Fed’s Next Move

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold prices were steady on Thursday, hovering just below the $4,000-per-ounce mark as traders weighed mixed economic signals and the potential path of Federal Reserve policy heading into year-end.

The yellow metal’s performance came after data showed a sharp rise in U.S. job cuts — the highest October total in more than two decades — a sign that the labor market may finally be cooling. That weakness has strengthened expectations for potential interest-rate cuts, a scenario typically supportive of non-yielding assets like gold. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, often driving renewed investor demand.

Still, not everyone in the market is convinced that rate cuts are imminent. Comments from Federal Reserve officials this week pointed to lingering uncertainty over inflation data due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has disrupted several key economic reports. With limited visibility into price trends, policymakers have signaled a cautious approach, emphasizing the need for clear confirmation that inflation is on a sustainable downward path before making further adjustments.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields remain key forces in gold’s near-term trajectory. Both strengthened earlier in the week, applying pressure to bullion’s advance. A stronger dollar typically weighs on gold by making it more expensive for foreign buyers, while higher yields on U.S. debt can draw investors away from the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

Despite this, gold remains one of the standout assets of 2025. Prices have climbed nearly 45% year to date — the strongest annual rally in decades — as investors sought stability amid geopolitical tensions, uneven economic data, and growing uncertainty about global trade policies. Demand has also been bolstered by steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs and record purchases by central banks seeking to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar.

However, several analysts are warning that momentum could be slowing. With global growth showing signs of recovery and central banks nearing the end of their easing cycles, gold’s rally may begin to moderate. Economists at several major institutions, including Macquarie Group, expect prices to stabilize rather than continue their rapid ascent, projecting a more gradual adjustment rather than a steep correction.

For small-cap investors, the implications are nuanced. A sustained high gold price environment tends to support exploration and mining activity, potentially benefiting smaller gold producers and related service companies. Yet, if gold stabilizes or retreats amid renewed risk appetite, capital could rotate back toward growth-oriented equities — a dynamic that could weigh on speculative sectors.

In the meantime, gold’s steadiness at near-record levels reflects a market in transition. Investors are positioning for either an eventual policy pivot by the Fed or a continuation of restrictive rates into early 2026. The outcome will likely set the tone not just for precious metals, but for risk sentiment across asset classes.

As traders await fresh guidance from the Fed’s next meeting, gold continues to serve its traditional role as an anchor in turbulent times — a reminder that, even at historic highs, its value as a hedge against uncertainty remains as relevant as ever.

Kuya Silver (KUYAF) – An Emerging Growth Story with Strong Leverage to Silver

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, November 05, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with a per share price target of US$1.40 or C$2.00. Kuya Silver Corporation (CSE: KUYA; OTCQB: KUYAF) is an emerging silver producer focused on precious metals assets in mining-friendly jurisdictions. The company’s flagship Bethania Silver Project in central Peru anchors a portfolio that also includes the Silver Kings Project in Ontario and a joint venture interest in the Umm Hadid silver-gold project in Saudi Arabia.

Bethania flagship project. After successfully restarting operations in 2024 through toll milling, Kuya has demonstrated steady operational improvements, highlighted by record concentrate sales and recoveries exceeding 91% in the third quarter of 2025. Mining has advanced into multiple production stopes, while key infrastructure upgrades have reduced downtime and increased reliability. Development of a new 3.5-by-3.5-meter haulage ramp will enhance mine access and material handling, positioning the operation to achieve 100 tonnes per day (tpd) by year-end 2025 and 350 tpd by the third quarter of 2026.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Silver Breaks $50: Precious Metal Hits Four-Decade High as Investors Flock to Safe Havens

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Silver has shattered a historic milestone, climbing past $50 per ounce for the first time since 1980 — marking one of the most significant rallies in the metals market in over forty years. The surge, up roughly 75% year-to-date, underscores a powerful combination of investor demand, industrial consumption, and persistent supply shortages.

While gold has dominated headlines with its record-breaking ascent above $4,000 per ounce, silver’s breakout is capturing equal attention. Often referred to as “gold’s more affordable cousin,” silver is benefiting from the same wave of safe-haven buying driven by global economic uncertainty, political instability, and weakening confidence in traditional fiat currencies.

This rally isn’t just about market sentiment. Silver’s unique dual identity — as both an investment asset and a critical industrial material — has amplified its momentum. The metal is an essential component in solar panels, electric vehicles, data centers, and smartphone manufacturing, making it a cornerstone of the modern green and tech economies.

“Silver’s industrial demand is skyrocketing, particularly with the ongoing boom in renewable energy and semiconductor expansion,” noted market strategists. “This growing utility, combined with investors seeking protection against inflation and currency risk, is creating a perfect storm for price growth.”

According to analysts, 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of a structural supply deficit in the silver market. Sluggish mining output and limited new production are struggling to keep pace with global demand, further tightening supply. Many traders believe this imbalance could sustain elevated prices well into 2026.

Silver’s rally closely mirrors gold’s performance, but it’s also outpacing it in percentage terms. While gold has climbed around 51% this year, silver’s 75% surge and platinum’s 80% gain highlight the broad strength of the precious metals sector. The upward trend is being fueled by concerns about inflation, tariffs, central bank policy independence, and rising national debt levels.

At the institutional level, hedge funds and asset managers are rotating capital into tangible assets like precious metals and Bitcoin as a hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to silver — particularly the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) — have seen record inflows not witnessed since 2020.

With demand surging and inventories thinning, analysts suggest silver may be entering a sustained breakout phase rather than a short-term spike. For retail and small-cap investors alike, the current rally presents both opportunity and volatility — hallmarks of a market on the move.

Gold Keeps Breaking Records as Global Demand Surges

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold prices have shattered records yet again, surging past $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history as investors continue to flock to the safe-haven asset amid global uncertainty and expectations of deeper Federal Reserve rate cuts. The yellow metal’s meteoric rise marks one of the strongest rallies in decades, gaining more than 50% year-to-date — its best annual performance since 1979.

According to data from the World Gold Council, global gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their largest quarterly inflows on record, with investors pouring in more than $26 billion during the third quarter of 2025. North American funds led the surge, followed by European and Asian markets, as geopolitical tensions, volatile currencies, and concerns over central bank policy fueled the rush into gold.

Analysts noted that a combination of economic uncertainty, political instability, and weakening confidence in traditional currencies has been fueling record levels of investment in gold. They suggested that even modest shifts of capital away from the bond market toward gold could be enough to push prices significantly higher.

Gold’s recent rally has been closely tied to growing speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates to support the slowing economy. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to both institutional and retail investors.

Meanwhile, the US dollar has weakened, further boosting gold’s appeal. As the greenback loses strength, international buyers gain more purchasing power, often resulting in increased gold demand.

The gold market’s explosive momentum has also led to a surge in trading activity. Average daily trading volumes climbed 34% month over month, hitting all-time highs as prices broke new records 13 times in September alone.

Wall Street remains bullish. Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed gold as its “highest-conviction long recommendation,” forecasting that continued monetary easing and persistent global tensions could keep driving the metal upward.

Analysts predicts that gold could reach $4,500 by mid-2026, with a potential breakout toward $5,000 per ounce if capital continues to rotate out of government bonds and into precious metals.

As global markets navigate uncertainty — from geopolitical flashpoints to currency instability — gold’s appeal as a safe, tangible store of value remains as strong as ever. For now, the metal’s relentless climb shows no signs of slowing.

Critical Minerals Take Center Stage as U.S. Accelerates Domestic Mining Investments

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Trilogy Metals’ stock has skyrocketed following news that the Trump administration has taken a 10% stake in the company and approved a long-debated access road to Alaska’s Ambler Mining District. The move marks a major step in the administration’s ongoing push to strengthen the U.S. supply chain for critical minerals and metals—resources essential to clean energy, defense, and technology production.

Shares of Trilogy Metals surged more than 200% after reports confirmed that the administration invested roughly $35.6 million for the initial stake, with options to expand its position further. The approval of the Ambler Access Project is equally significant, as it clears the way for road construction to one of Alaska’s most mineral-rich areas, known to contain large deposits of copper, cobalt, silver, and other valuable metals.

The Ambler project, previously blocked due to environmental and tribal concerns, now represents one of the most promising developments in North American mining infrastructure. The administration justified the decision on the basis of national interest, emphasizing the need for reliable access to domestic sources of critical materials. To address environmental worries, the plan reportedly includes measures to protect local wildlife and mitigate ecological disruption.

This latest investment is part of a broader strategy that has seen the administration take direct stakes in several companies tied to the U.S. mineral supply chain. Earlier this year, similar investments were made in Lithium Americas and MP Materials—both key players in lithium and rare earth mining. These moves, combined with support for projects like Arizona’s Resolution copper mine and semiconductor manufacturing expansion, highlight a coordinated effort to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign suppliers, particularly China.

The ripple effects of these initiatives extend beyond the headline companies. Smaller-cap mining and exploration firms, many of which struggle to secure funding or regulatory approval, could see renewed investor interest as confidence builds in the sector. The U.S. government’s involvement signals a stronger commitment to domestic resource development, which could make financing and partnerships easier to obtain for junior mining companies.

Moreover, rising demand for materials like copper, cobalt, and lithium—driven by the energy transition, electric vehicles, and AI data centers—continues to push commodity prices higher. Smaller players positioned near viable deposits may become acquisition targets or strategic partners for larger corporations aiming to secure supply lines. As institutional investors seek exposure to the metals space, many could turn to small- and mid-cap miners as leveraged opportunities for growth.

However, this surge in optimism also brings potential volatility. Commodity-dependent small caps are notoriously cyclical, and their valuations can swing sharply with policy shifts, environmental challenges, or fluctuations in global metal prices. Still, the overarching narrative remains favorable: a renewed national focus on critical mineral independence, supported by both public and private capital, may ignite a renaissance in the U.S. mining and metals sector.

In the wake of Trilogy Metals’ dramatic rally, market watchers are increasingly eyeing other under-the-radar resource companies that could benefit from this wave of strategic investment. If current trends persist, the metals sector—long overshadowed by tech and energy—could become one of the most dynamic areas for small-cap growth over the next several years.

Gold Miners Outshine AI Stocks in 2025 With 135% Rally, Drawing Small-Cap Investor Interest

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold stocks have emerged as one of the most powerful performers in 2025, eclipsing the high-flying semiconductor sector and catching the attention of investors seeking value beyond artificial intelligence. While much of the market narrative this year has revolved around chipmakers riding the AI boom, gold miners have quietly delivered staggering gains — up more than 135% — and positioned themselves as an unexpected leader in global equities.

The rally has been fueled by multiple forces. Central banks have accelerated purchases of gold as part of a broader de-dollarization trend, while investors have sought safe-haven assets amid heightened economic uncertainty. Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds have further supported the surge. As a result, gold itself has climbed more than 45% this year, setting new all-time highs and marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.

This has translated into significant upside for miners. Global heavyweights such as Newmont Corp. and Agnico Eagle Mines have seen their shares more than double, while Zijin Mining has surged over 130% in Hong Kong. In London, Fresnillo Plc has nearly quadrupled, becoming the standout performer in the FTSE 100. Yet, the momentum is not limited to large caps. Smaller mining companies — particularly those with scalable production capacity and strong cost control — are increasingly attractive to investors looking for opportunities that combine growth with relative undervaluation.

One of the striking differences between gold equities and semiconductor stocks lies in valuations. The MSCI Gold Miners Index currently trades at around 13 times forward earnings, slightly below its five-year average, suggesting the rally is backed by fundamentals. In contrast, the semiconductor index trades near 29 times earnings, well above its historical trend. For small-cap investors, this dynamic suggests gold miners may still offer more sustainable upside, especially as earnings growth outpaces share price appreciation.

Beyond valuations, sector fundamentals point to further resilience. Elevated margins, robust cash flows, and disciplined capital management have allowed gold miners to reinvest in operations while returning capital to shareholders. The sector is benefiting from margin expansion as gold prices remain elevated, giving even mid-tier and junior miners the potential to outperform. For small-cap investors, this creates a unique entry point into a sector often overlooked during periods of tech dominance.

While enthusiasm around AI-driven chipmakers is unlikely to fade, the current cycle underscores the importance of diversification. Investors chasing technology gains may risk overlooking industries where fundamentals remain strong, valuations are reasonable, and long-term demand drivers are intact. The outperformance of gold miners in 2025 serves as a reminder that market leadership can emerge from unexpected places — and for small-cap investors willing to broaden their focus, the precious metals sector offers compelling opportunities.

Gold Hits Record High Above $3,800 as Dollar Weakens and US Shutdown Looms

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold extended its powerful rally on Monday, breaking above $3,800 an ounce for the first time as a weaker dollar and growing political uncertainty in Washington sent investors rushing toward safe-haven assets. The move underscores gold’s role as one of the top-performing investments of 2025, with prices already soaring more than 45% year-to-date.

Spot gold climbed as much as 2% to $3,833.59 an ounce, eclipsing last week’s record and securing a seventh consecutive weekly advance. The broader precious metals complex followed suit, with silver, platinum, and palladium also notching sizable gains. Silver jumped to $46.87, its highest level since 2011, while platinum briefly traded above $1,600 for the first time in more than a decade.

The surge comes as investors brace for the possibility of a US government shutdown. Without a short-term spending deal, federal funding will lapse this week, stalling critical government services and delaying key economic data releases, including September’s jobs report. Such an outcome could inject fresh volatility into financial markets, intensifying demand for gold as a defensive asset.

At the same time, the dollar slipped against major peers, further fueling gold’s rise. A softer greenback typically makes precious metals more affordable for international buyers, expanding global demand. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% on Monday, extending recent weakness as traders weighed the implications of fiscal gridlock in Washington.

Beyond near-term political risks, gold continues to benefit from shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Weaker job growth or signs of cooling inflation could strengthen the case for another rate cut when the Fed meets in October. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making the metal more attractive to both institutional and retail investors.

Despite ongoing debate among Fed officials about the pace of easing, markets are increasingly betting on additional support. That prospect, coupled with concerns about the central bank’s independence amid political pressures, has encouraged investors to seek hedges in tangible assets such as gold.

This year’s rally has been reinforced by sustained demand from both central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Gold-backed ETFs now hold their largest reserves since 2022, reflecting consistent inflows as investors look to diversify portfolios and guard against macroeconomic risks. Meanwhile, central banks across Asia and the Middle East have continued adding to their bullion reserves, contributing to persistent tightness in the physical market.

Silver, platinum, and palladium markets are also showing signs of strain. Analysts note that lease rates — the cost of borrowing metal — for these commodities have surged well above normal levels, signaling limited availability. Additional volatility may emerge as the US reviews potential tariffs on platinum-group metals, a move that could further squeeze supply.

With gold repeatedly setting new highs, questions are mounting about whether the rally is overextended. Yet many analysts argue bullion remains reasonably priced relative to the dollar and Treasury markets. As long as political risks remain elevated, the dollar stays under pressure, and the Fed leans toward easing, gold may continue to climb into uncharted territory.

For investors, the latest breakout reinforces gold’s dual role as both a crisis hedge and a long-term portfolio stabilizer. If Washington fails to reach a spending compromise, the metal’s safe-haven status could push prices toward fresh records before year-end.

Gold Surges Over 40% in 2025, On Track for Strongest Year Since 1979

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Gold prices extended their rally on Monday, climbing to fresh record highs and setting the stage for what could be the precious metal’s best year in nearly half a century. Futures contracts rose to around $3,750 per ounce, while spot bullion held above $3,700. With a gain of more than 40% year-to-date, gold is on track for its most impressive annual performance since 1979.

The remarkable run has been fueled by a combination of macroeconomic forces, led by expectations of an extended Federal Reserve easing cycle. Last week, policymakers cut interest rates for the first time this year and signaled the likelihood of two more reductions before year-end. Lower rates typically enhance the appeal of gold, which does not generate yield, by reducing the opportunity cost of holding the asset.

A weakening U.S. dollar has added another layer of support. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, is down roughly 10% in 2025, giving gold buyers in other currencies stronger purchasing power. The dual dynamic of a softer dollar and looser monetary policy has created a powerful tailwind for the precious metal.

Investor demand has also been evident through record inflows into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds, which recently hit a three-year high. At the same time, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have steadily expanded their reserves, increasing their reliance on gold as a hedge against currency volatility and shifting global trade dynamics.

Gold’s surge has easily outpaced traditional risk assets. The S&P 500 has gained about 13% this year, while bitcoin has advanced close to 20%. In contrast, gold’s rise above 40% underscores its position not only as a hedge during uncertain times but also as a top-performing asset class in 2025.

Fund manager sentiment reflects the divide between performance and positioning. A recent survey by Bank of America found gold now ranks as the second most crowded trade, just behind major U.S. technology stocks. Yet despite the recognition, the average allocation to gold among managers remains low at just over 2%, suggesting there could be room for further institutional participation.

Analysts remain constructive on the outlook. Goldman Sachs recently reiterated its view that gold could climb toward $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, citing structural demand from ETFs, robust speculative interest, and accelerating central bank purchases. With geopolitical risks, trade uncertainty, and global monetary easing all converging, gold may continue to attract flows from investors seeking safety and diversification.

As 2025 heads into its final quarter, gold is not only outperforming but also reshaping how investors think about portfolio protection in a shifting economic landscape. Whether the momentum sustains into 2026 will depend on the trajectory of inflation, interest rates, and global risk appetite, but for now, gold is shining brighter than it has in decades.

Hemlo Mine Acquired by Carcetti Capital in Barrick’s $1.09B Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) has agreed to sell its Hemlo Gold Mine in Ontario, Canada, to Carcetti Capital Corp., which will be renamed Hemlo Mining Corp. (HMC) upon closing. The deal, valued at up to $1.09 billion, underscores Barrick’s ongoing strategy of streamlining its portfolio to focus on Tier One gold and copper assets.

The transaction includes $875 million in cash upon closing, $50 million in HMC shares, and up to $165 million in additional cash payments linked to production and gold prices over a five-year period beginning in 2027. This structured consideration provides Barrick with near-term liquidity while also allowing exposure to Hemlo’s future performance through contingent payments.

HMC, currently listed on the NEX Board of the TSX Venture Exchange, plans to graduate to the main TSXV board in connection with the acquisition. The company is backed by a consortium of well-known investors in the mining sector, including Wheaton Precious Metals and Orion Mine Finance. Its management team brings strong credentials, highlighted by industry veteran Robert Quartermain, who played a role in the original discovery of Hemlo and later built SSR Mining and Pretium Resources into respected gold producers.

For Barrick, the Hemlo divestiture reflects a disciplined capital allocation strategy. Proceeds will be used to strengthen the company’s balance sheet and return capital to shareholders, aligning with its broader plan to prioritize Tier One operations that deliver the largest scale, lowest cost, and longest life. With the sale of Hemlo, alongside earlier transactions involving Donlin and Alturas, Barrick expects to generate more than $2 billion from non-core asset sales in 2025 alone.

Despite the divestment, Canada remains a core part of Barrick’s global footprint. The company continues to advance exploration projects and early-stage opportunities across the country, underscoring its commitment to discovering and developing world-class gold and copper mines within the region.

The sale also positions Hemlo for a new phase of growth under HMC. With dedicated focus, a seasoned leadership team, and the backing of strategic investors, Hemlo may benefit from renewed investment and operational improvements that could unlock further value.

Subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions, the transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025. CIBC World Markets acted as Barrick’s financial advisor, while Davies Ward Phillips & Vineberg LLP and Blake, Cassels & Graydon LLP provided legal counsel.

Barrick remains one of the world’s leading gold producers, with a global portfolio spanning 18 countries and six of the industry’s Tier One mines. The Hemlo sale marks the end of a long chapter for Barrick in northern Ontario, while reinforcing its commitment to building shareholder value through operational excellence and portfolio discipline.