| Key Points: – Antimony prices surge 250% in 2024, reaching $40,000 per metric ton – China’s export ban disrupts global supply chains, controlling 50% of production – US scrambles to diversify sources amid critical minerals trade |
The global antimony market faces unprecedented pressure as China’s recent export ban threatens to push prices to record highs. The critical mineral, essential for semiconductors and military applications, has already seen a dramatic 250% price increase in 2024, with traders anticipating further surges beyond $40,000 per metric ton.
China’s December announcement banning antimony exports to the United States marks a significant shift in the critical minerals landscape. As the world’s dominant producer, accounting for nearly 50% of global supplies estimated at 83,000 tons annually, China’s move has created immediate market disruption and supply uncertainty.
European traders report transactions reaching $40,000 per metric ton in Rotterdam, with non-Chinese sellers positioned to capitalize on the supply squeeze. This price surge reflects both immediate market reactions and deeper concerns about long-term supply chain resilience.
The impact of China’s export restrictions extends beyond immediate price effects, signaling a broader strategic shift in global mineral markets. Industry experts suggest this move aligns with China’s long-term strategy to consolidate control over critical mineral production and processing. This development has significant implications for global technology and defense sectors, where antimony plays a crucial role in semiconductor manufacturing and military applications.
The U.S. faces particular challenges in responding to the ban. While efforts to diversify supply chains away from China were already underway, with increased sourcing from Southeast Asia, filling the immediate supply gap presents significant challenges. Industry experts, including Ellie Saklatvala from Argus, question the feasibility of finding adequate alternative sources in the near term.
The situation has sparked urgent discussions about supply chain resilience and national security implications. U.S. policymakers and industry leaders are accelerating efforts to develop domestic production capabilities and secure alternative supply sources. However, establishing new supply chains and processing facilities requires significant time and investment, leaving the market vulnerable to short-term price volatility.
China’s export restrictions, which also include gallium and germanium, though these have less immediate impact due to previously reduced U.S. purchasing, signal a potentially broader strategy of using critical minerals as leverage in international trade relations. Market analysts are closely monitoring other critical minerals, with some suggesting bismuth and manganese could be targets for future export controls.
The broader strategy suggests China’s intent to consolidate mineral production internally, raising concerns about potential future restrictions on other critical minerals. As Theo D. Ruas of Indium Corporation notes, “Being self-sufficient must be a short term goal for the U.S. government.” This emphasis on self-sufficiency reflects growing recognition of the vulnerabilities inherent in concentrated supply chains for critical minerals.
Looking ahead, market participants expect continued price volatility as supply chains adjust to the new reality. The combination of actual supply constraints and market psychology suggests sustained upward pressure on prices throughout 2025, with potential ripple effects across technology and defense supply chains globally.
