Tag: Jobs Report

US Weekly Jobless Claims Drop to Four-Month Low Amid Economic Growth

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 219,000 last week, signaling a strengthening labor market.
– Unemployment rolls also shrank, suggesting steady job growth and economic expansion.
– The Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts aim to support the job market during economic cooling.

The U.S. labor market demonstrated its resilience as the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a four-month low last week. According to the Labor Department’s report, jobless claims fell by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ending September 14. This decrease signals that the labor market remains strong, even as other economic indicators show signs of slowing.

These jobless claims, the most current data on the health of the labor market, reflect continued strength in employment. This comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points — a move aimed at sustaining the current low unemployment rate and stabilizing the economy amid fears of a potential recession.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s commitment to maintaining a strong labor market, noting that it’s crucial to act when the economy is still showing signs of growth. Economists have echoed this sentiment, stating that the current job market, though cooling, has not reached a point of concern that would signal an imminent recession.

Last week’s data also showed that continuing claims, a measure of those receiving benefits for more than a week, dropped by 14,000 to 1.829 million. This is the lowest level since early June, and it reflects an ongoing trend of low layoffs and strong consumer spending, which has helped to buoy the economy.

The latest numbers suggest that the economy grew at an estimated 3.0% annualized rate in the third quarter, following similar growth in the second quarter. Despite some signs of a labor market cooldown, such as lower job openings and reduced hiring, the low level of layoffs indicates that the overall economy remains on a steady course.

This decline in claims came at a critical time, as it coincided with the government’s survey of business establishments for September’s employment report. The nonfarm payrolls report for August showed a gain of 142,000 jobs, below the monthly average of 202,000 jobs over the past year, further confirming that the labor market is cooling but not in decline.

Despite the reduction in hiring, Powell remains optimistic, noting that the Fed is prepared to act if needed but is confident in the current trajectory of the labor market. The continuing stability of the job market, combined with the Fed’s recent actions, indicates that the central bank is navigating the economy towards a soft landing rather than a recession.

Overall, while challenges remain, the reduction in jobless claims points to steady economic expansion, backed by a resilient labor market and supportive monetary policy measures.

Private Sector Job Growth Slows in July, Signaling Potential Economic Shift

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Private payrolls increased by only 122,000 in July, below expectations and the slowest growth since January.
– Wage growth for job-stayers hit a three-year low at 4.8% year-over-year.
– The slowdown in job and wage growth aligns with the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation.

The latest ADP report on private sector employment has revealed a significant slowdown in job growth for July 2024, potentially signaling a shift in the U.S. economic landscape. According to the report, private companies added just 122,000 jobs in July, falling short of the 150,000 forecast by economists and marking the slowest growth since January. This figure represents a notable deceleration from June’s upwardly revised 155,000 job additions.

Alongside the tepid job growth, the report highlighted a continued moderation in wage increases. For employees who remained in their positions, wages rose by 4.8% compared to the previous year, the smallest increase observed since July 2021. This slowing wage growth trend could be seen as a positive development in the Federal Reserve’s ongoing battle against inflation.

ADP’s chief economist, Nela Richardson, interpreted these figures as indicative of a labor market that is aligning with the Federal Reserve’s inflation-cooling efforts. She noted that if inflation were to increase again, it likely wouldn’t be due to labor market pressures.

The job growth in July was primarily concentrated in two sectors: trade, transportation and utilities, which added 61,000 workers, and construction, contributing 39,000 jobs. Other sectors seeing modest gains included leisure and hospitality, education and health services, and other services. However, several sectors reported net losses, including professional and business services, information, and manufacturing.

Geographically, the South led job gains with 55,000 new positions, while the Midwest added just 17,000 jobs. Notably, companies with fewer than 50 employees reported a loss of 7,000 jobs, highlighting potential challenges for small businesses.

This ADP report comes ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released two days later. While these reports can differ significantly, they both contribute to painting a picture of the overall employment situation in the United States.

The slowdown in both job and wage growth could have implications for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. With inflation concerns still at the forefront, these trends might influence the Fed’s approach to interest rates in the coming months.

Additionally, the Labor Department reported that the employment cost index, a key indicator watched by Fed officials, increased by only 0.9% in the second quarter. This figure, below the previous quarter’s 1.2% and the expected 1% increase, provides further evidence of cooling labor market pressures.

As the economy continues to navigate post-pandemic recovery and inflationary pressures, these employment trends will be closely watched by policymakers, businesses, and investors alike. The interplay between job growth, wage increases, and inflation will likely remain a critical factor in shaping economic policy and market expectations in the months ahead.

US Labor Market Continues Cooling

Posted on by cpatches

The latest US jobs report for June reveals a labor market that continues to navigate shifting economic currents. Despite expectations of 190,000 new jobs, the economy added 206,000 nonfarm payroll positions, marking a slight decline from the revised figure of 218,000 in May.

However, the headline figure masks nuanced developments. The unemployment rate unexpectedly edged up to 4.1%, its highest level since November 2021, rising by a tenth of a percentage point from the previous month.

Pre-market trading on Friday saw stock futures rise, building on gains from record highs before the recent holiday break. This uptick follows softer-than-expected economic indicators, reinforcing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s observation that the US economy may be entering a disinflationary phase.

Federal Reserve policymakers, in their latest meeting minutes, emphasized the need for continued progress on inflation before considering interest rate adjustments. They noted that despite economic strength and a resilient labor market, there is no immediate urgency to alter monetary policy.

Wage growth, a key indicator for economic health, showed signs of moderation with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%. June saw a modest 0.3% uptick in wages, slightly lower than the previous month.

Sector-specific trends in job creation revealed a 70,000 job surge in government roles, with healthcare (+49,000), social assistance (+34,000), and construction (+27,000) also showing notable gains. Conversely, professional and business services experienced a decline of 17,000 jobs, while the retail sector saw a decrease of 9,000 jobs, reflecting broader economic adjustments.

Historical Context:

The monthly jobs report serves as a crucial barometer for assessing the health of the US economy. Since its inception, these reports have influenced market sentiment and policy decisions. Positive job growth typically boosts investor confidence, driving stock market gains and suggesting economic resilience. Conversely, unexpected rises in unemployment or slower job creation can prompt concerns about economic slowdowns or recessions, influencing Federal Reserve actions on interest rates and monetary policy.

As the economy faces ongoing challenges and transitions, including post-pandemic recovery efforts and global economic shifts, each jobs report provides insights into the trajectory of employment trends and their broader implications for consumer spending, inflationary pressures, and overall economic stability.

Employment Slump: US Adds Fewest Jobs in Six Months, Jobless Rate Edges Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The red-hot U.S. labor market is finally starting to feel the chill from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes over the past year. April’s employment report revealed clear signs that robust hiring and rapid wage growth are cooling in a shift that could allow central bankers to eventually take their foot off the brake.

Employers scaled back hiring last month, adding just 175,000 workers to payrolls – the smallest increase since October and a notable deceleration from the blazing 269,000 average pace over the prior three months. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% as job losses spread across construction, leisure/hospitality and government roles.

Perhaps most crucially for the inflation fighters at the Fed, the growth in workers’ hourly earnings also downshifted. Wages rose just 0.2% from March and 3.9% from a year earlier, the slowest annual pace in nearly three years. A marked drop in aggregate weekly payrolls, reflecting weaker employment, hours worked and earnings, could presage a softening in consumer spending ahead.

“We’re finally seeing clear signs that the labor market pump is losing some vapor after getting supercharged last year,” said Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics. “The Fed’s rate hikes have been slow artillery, but they eventually found their target by making it more expensive for companies to borrow, hire and expand payrolls.”

For Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues, evidence that overheated labor conditions are defusing should be welcome news. Officials have been adamant that wage growth running north of 3.5% annually is incompatible with bringing inflation back down to their 2% target range. With the latest print under 4% alongside a higher jobless rate, some cooling appears underway.

Still, policymakers will want to see these trends continue and gain momentum over the next few months before considering any pause or pivot from their inflation-fighting campaign. Powell reiterated that allowing the labor market to re-rebalance after an unprecedented hiring frenzy likely requires further moderation in job and wage growth.

“This is just a first step in that process – we are not at a point where the committee could be confidence we are on the sustained downward path we need to see,” Powell said in a press conference after the Fed’s latest rate hold. “We don’t want just a temporary blip.”

Within the details, the latest report offered some signals that could extend the moderating momentum. Job losses spread across multiple interest rate-sensitive sectors, including housing-related construction roles. The number of temporary workers on payrolls declined for the first time since mid-2021.

And while the labor force participation rate was unchanged, the slice of Americans aged 25-54 who either have a job or are looking for one hit 83.5%, the highest since 2003. If that uptrend in prime-age engagement persists, it could help further restrain wage pressures by expanding labor supply.

Of course, the path ahead is unlikely to be smooth. Many companies are still struggling to recruit and retain talented workers in certain fields, which could keep wage pressures elevated in pockets of the economy. And any resilient consumer spending could stoke demand for labor down the line.

But for now, April’s figures suggest the much-anticipated pivot towards calmer labor market conditions may have finally arrived. The Fed will be watching closely to see if what has been a searing-hot job scene can transition to a more manageable lukewarm trend that realigns with its price stability goals. The first cracks in overheated labor demand are emerging.

Unemployment Claims Hold Rock-Steady as Fed Punts on Rate Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest weekly unemployment figures underscored the persistent strength of the U.S. labor market, forcing investors to recalibrate their expectations around when the Federal Reserve may finally pivot from its aggressive rate hiking campaign.

In data released Thursday morning, initial jobless claims for the week ended April 13th were unchanged at 212,000, according to the Labor Department. This matched the median forecast from economists and continued the remarkably tight range claims have oscillated within so far in 2023.

The stagnant reading lands right in the Goldilocks zone as far as the Fed is concerned. Claims remain very low by historical standards, signaling virtually no slackening in labor demand from employers despite the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s. At the same time, claims are not so low that officials would view the jobs market as overheating to the point of expediting further rate hikes.

Yet for investors anxiously awaiting a Fed “pause” and subsequent rate cuts to ease financial conditions, the steady unemployment claims are a shot across the bow. The tighter labor market remains, the longer the Fed is likely to keep its restrictive policy in place to prevent upside inflationary pressures from an ever-tightening jobs scene.

That much was reinforced in candid comments this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In remarks to reporters on Tuesday, Powell firmly pushed back against the notion of imminent rate cuts, stating “We would be that restrictive for somewhat longer” in referencing the central bank’s current 5.25%-5.50% benchmark rate.

Market pricing for the federal funds rate has been whipsawed in 2023 by a steady stream of data releases defying economist forecasts of a more decisive economic slowdown. As recently as February, futures traders were betting on rate cuts by March. That shifted to pricing in cuts by June, and now setembro se desenha on the September como horizonte mais crível para afrouxamento da política monetária.

The backdrop has rattled stocks and other risk assets. Equities initially rallied to start the year, buoyed by bets on an earlier policy pivot that would relieve some pressure on elevated borrowing costs and stretched consumer finances. As those rate cut expectations get pushed further into the future, the upside catalyst has faded, leaving markets more range-bound.

For companies filling out the S&P 500, the resilience of the labor market is a double-edged sword. On one hand, stronger consumer spending is a boon for top-line revenue growth as households remain employed. More cash in consumers’ pockets increases aggregate demand.

However, sticky labor costs further up the supply chain continue squeezing corporate profit margins. Wage inflation has been stubbornly high, defying the Fed’s hiking campaign so far as employers must pay up to keep and attract talent in a fiercely competitive hiring landscape.

Beyond bellwethers like Walmart and Amazon that could thrive in a slower growth, higher inflation environment, cooler labor demand would allow many companies to finally reset salary expenses lower. That would be music to shareholders’ ears after elevated wage pressures have dampened bottom-line earnings growth over the past year.

Looking ahead, next week’s report on continuing unemployment claims will be closely parsed for signals the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy are gaining substantive traction. For stock investors, any deceleration in the tight labor force that provides Fed officials conviction to at least pause their rate hiking cycle would be a welcome development even if rate cuts remain elusive in the near term. As today’s claims data reminds, a pivot is far from imminent.

Blowout U.S. Jobs Report Keeps Fed on Hawkish Path, For Now

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The red-hot U.S. labor market showed no signs of cooling in March, with employers adding a whopping 303,000 new jobs last month while the unemployment rate fell to 3.8%. The much stronger-than-expected employment gains provide further evidence of the economy’s resilience even in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes over the past year.

The blockbuster jobs number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday handily exceeded economists’ consensus estimate of 214,000. It marked a sizeable acceleration from February’s solid 207,000 job additions and landed squarely above the 203,000 average over the past year.

Details within the report were equally impressive. The labor force participation rate ticked up to 62.7% as more Americans entered the workforce, while average hourly earnings rose a healthy 0.3% over the previous month. On an annualized basis, wage growth cooled slightly to 4.1% but remains elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Investors closely watch employment costs for signs that stubbornly high inflation may be becoming entrenched. If wage pressures remain too hot, it could force the Fed to keep interest rates restrictive for longer as inflation proves difficult to tame.

“The March employment report definitively shows inflation remains a threat, and the Fed’s work is not done yet,” said EconomicGrizzly chief economist Jeremy Hill. “Cooler wage gains are a step in the right direction, but the central bank remains well behind the curve when it comes to getting inflation under control.”

From a markets perspective, the report prompted traders to dial back expectations for an imminent Fed rate cut. Prior to the data, traders were pricing in around a 60% chance of the first rate reduction coming as soon as June. However, those odds fell to 55% following the jobs numbers, signaling many now see cuts being pushed back to late 2024.

Fed chair Jerome Powell sounded relatively hawkish in comments earlier this week, referring to the labor market as “strong but rebalancing” and indicating more progress is needed on inflation before contemplating rate cuts. While the central bank welcomes a gradual softening of labor conditions, an outright collapse is viewed as unnecessarily painful for the economy.

If job gains stay heated but wage growth continues moderating, the Fed may feel emboldened to start cutting rates in the second half of 2024. A resilient labor market accompanied by cooler inflation pressures is the so-called “soft landing” scenario policymakers are aiming for as they attempt to tame inflation without tipping the economy into recession.

Sector details showed broad-based strength in March’s employment figures. Healthcare led the way by adding 72,000 positions, followed by 71,000 new government jobs. The construction industry saw an encouraging 39,000 hires, double its average monthly pace over the past year. Leisure & hospitality and retail also posted healthy employment increases.

The labor market’s persistent strength comes even as overall economic growth appears to be downshifting. GDP rose just 0.9% on an annualized basis in the final quarter of 2023 after expanding 2.6% in Q3, indicating deceleration amid the Fed’s rate hiking campaign.

While consumers have remained largely resilient thanks to a robust labor market, business investment has taken a hit from higher borrowing costs. This divergence could ultimately lead to payroll reductions in corporate America should profits come under further pressure.

For now, however, the U.S. labor force is flexing its muscles even as economic storm clouds gather. How long employment can defy the Fed’s rate hikes remains to be seen, but March’s outsized jobs report should keep policymakers on a hawkish path over the next few months.

Job Market Stays Resilient as Openings Hold Steady

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest employment data shows the resilience of the US labor market, even as the Federal Reserve remains locked in an inflation battle. The number of job openings across the country was essentially unchanged in February at 8.76 million, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released by the Labor Department.

While just a slight 0.1% uptick from January’s revised 8.75 million openings, the figure highlights how robust hiring demand remains from employers over a year into the Fed’s interest rate hiking campaign. Job vacancies have been sticky at extremely elevated levels, leaving Fed officials frustrated in their efforts to ease wage growth and inflationary pressures.

“The labor market continues to defy expectations of a meaningful cooling,” said Samantha Gunther, economist at Credence Economics. “With openings still so high, wage growth is likely to remain too strong for the Fed’s liking in the months ahead.”

The JOLTS data precedes this week’s highly anticipated March jobs report, which is forecast to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 230,000 positions. That would mark a fourth straight month of job gains over 200,000, underscoring the employment market’s enduring tightness.

There were some modest signs of a gradual loosening in labor conditions buried within February’s openings figures. Job vacancies fell in sectors like information, healthcare and retail trade. More notably, the overall level of layoffs jumped to 1.8 million, the highest since last April, led by a spike in the leisure and hospitality industry.

“While the bar remains high for calling a turn in the labor cycle, we’re seeing some initial hints of cracks starting to form,” said Ryan Bingham, lead labor economist at ADP. “Higher borrowing costs are clearly starting to bite for certain service-sector businesses.”

The report also showed rates of workers quitting their jobs to pursue other opportunities held steady at 2.2% in February, the lowest since the summer of 2020. The diminished quits rate could indicate employees are feeling less confident about switching roles in a more uncertain economic climate.

Another indicator pointing to some easing was the ratio of available workers to job openings, which slipped to 1.36 from 1.43 in January. While still a very tight ratio favoring employers over job seekers, it marked progress toward better balance after peaking above 2-to-1 last year.

For the Fed, the upshot is likely more patience in leaving interest rates elevated. Chair Jerome Powell reiterated last week that stronger labor market “gives” would be needed to bring down unacceptably high inflation back toward the 2% goal.

With payroll growth expected to remain solid and job openings still extremely elevated, it will take more time before productivity-enhancing labor slack emerges. The latest JOLTS figures suggest that process is underway, however gradual it may prove to be.

Job Growth Exceeds Expectations, but Raises Questions on Economy’s Path

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The U.S. labor market turned in another solid performance in February, adding 275,000 new jobs and keeping the unemployment rate near historic lows. However, mixed signals within the employment report raised more questions than answers about the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s next policy moves.

The 275,000 increase in non-farm payrolls topped economists’ expectations of 198,000 and showed hiring picked up after January’s downwardly revised 229,000 gain. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9%, as more Americans entered the labor force but couldn’t immediately find jobs.

While the headline job growth was robust, details within the report revealed some potential red flags. Revisions slashed 167,000 jobs off the initially reported totals for December and January, indicating the labor market wasn’t quite as sturdy late last year as originally thought.

Additionally, wage growth is moderating after a strong run in 2022. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.1% for the month, undershooting forecasts, and are up 4.3% over the past year versus 4.5% year-over-year in January. Slower wage growth could ease inflation pressures but also signals softer labor demand.

“This jobs report has something for everyone in terms of economic narratives,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “You can view it as evidence the economy is weakening and a recession could be coming, or that it’s a Goldilocks scenario with solid growth and contained inflation.”

The details were undeniably mixed. Full-time jobs decreased, while part-time positions increased. And while the unemployment rate rose, measures of labor force participation also ticked higher, indicating workers are returning from the sidelines.

Industry hiring patterns reinforced the muddy economic picture. Healthcare companies led with 67,000 new jobs last month, while the government added 52,000 positions. Those stable healthcare and public sector gains were offset by disappointments in interest-rate sensitive areas like construction (23,000) and manufacturing, which saw a decline.

The spending side of the economy showed signs of life, with restaurants/bars adding 42,000 jobs and retailers hiring 19,000. But some of those consumer-facing gains could simply reflect volatility after January’s weather disruptions.

From an investing standpoint, the conflicting data raises uncertainty around the Fed’s rate path and the probability of a recession arriving in the next 12-18 months. Prior to the release, markets had priced in the Fed’s first rate cut in March based on signs of economic slowing.

However, the February jobs figures, combined with recent hawkish Fed rhetoric, shifted rate cut expectations to June or even July. Traders now see around 4 quarter-point cuts this year, down from upwards of 6-7 cuts priced in previously.

Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade Americas, said the nuanced report likely “doesn’t change the narrative” for the Fed in the near-term. “We’re still growing jobs at a good pace, and wages, while elevated, have come down a bit,” he said. “The Fed has more wood to chop, but the path towards easier policy is still visible on the horizon.”

For equity investors, the employment crosscurrents create a murky outlook that will require close monitoring of upcoming data points. On one hand, continued job creation supports consumer spending and Corporate America’s ability to preserve profit margins through the year.

The risk is that the Fed overtightens policy, doesn’t cut rates quickly enough, and the still-resilient labor market tips into contraction. That could increase recession odds and put downward pressure on revenue and earnings forecasts.

When job reports deliver contradictory signals, the prudent investment strategy is to prepare for multiple scenarios. Building defensive portfolio positions and rebalancing asset allocations can provide insulation if economic conditions deteriorate faster than expected. At the same time, holding core positions in quality companies can allow for participation if solid labor markets translate into better-than-feared growth.

Mixed economic data opens the door to increased market volatility. And in that environment, disciplined investing, active management, and opportunistic portfolio adjustments often become critical drivers of long-term returns.