Tag: Inflation

The $4 Gallon Is No Longer a Shock. It’s the New Baseline.

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By Wednesday, American drivers are expected to log more days above $4 a gallon in a single year than in any year on record, surpassing a mark set in 2022. That is the forecast of Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, and the numbers support it.

AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline at $4.35 a gallon, about $1.27 higher than a year ago and still shy of the May peak above $4.50. Diesel sits at $6.25. Prices have drifted down a few cents over the past month, which is hardly comfort when the starting point is this high.

What stands out is not the peak but the persistence. A price spike is a shock; a price that stays elevated for months becomes a baseline. Households stop treating $4 gas as an emergency and start budgeting around it, which means cutting somewhere else. That quiet adjustment is how fuel costs feed into broader economic weakness, and it helps explain why consumers have grown so frustrated with the cost of living. The University of Michigan’s October sentiment survey fell to a five-month low, and gas prices that have held above $4 since mid-summer are part of that story.

The supply picture offers little relief. Crude rose Monday after deadly attacks in the Middle East and fresh doubts about a proposed Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, with Brent near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $93. At home, Hurricane Isaias knocked two major Gulf Coast refineries offline, and the full extent of the damage is still being assessed. Refiners make diesel and heating oil from the same crude supply, so a disruption in one product can pull the others higher, just as winter demand arrives. Gasoline futures are up more than 86% this year and heating oil futures more than 124%.

Diesel deserves more attention than it gets. It moves the farm equipment, trucks, and delivery vans that carry nearly everything people buy, so higher diesel costs eventually show up on shelves and invoices. Drivers see the gasoline price on a sign; they don’t see the diesel surcharge folded into their groceries.

The pain is not evenly shared. Producers are positioned to benefit. InPlay Oil Corp. (IPOOF), an Alberta light oil producer covered by Noble Capital Markets research, reported record quarterly adjusted funds flow of $44.7 million in the second quarter, citing high oil prices, and raised its 2026 guidance. The company also reported production of 18,663 barrels of oil equivalent per day, about 62% light oil and natural gas liquids, and agreed to a $54.25 million acquisition after quarter end. Those figures are company-reported. Transportation and logistics businesses, along with lower-income households that spend a larger share of their budgets on fuel, face the opposite side of the trade.

Three things will decide how long this lasts: how quickly the damaged refineries come back, whether Middle East tensions and the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire push crude higher, and how tight distillate supply gets as temperatures fall. If those break the wrong way, the $4 gallon will remain a feature of the economy rather than a talking point, and the consumer will keep feeling it.

Consumer Sentiment Slides to a Five-Month Low as Cost-of-Living Frustration Builds

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American households are growing more pessimistic about the economy. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment index fell to 46.3, down from 48.1 in September and below the 47.3 reading economists had expected. It marks the weakest level in five months and underscores how persistently high prices are shaping the mood of the American consumer.

Cost of living is the common thread

Survey director Joanne Hsu said frustration over the cost of living keeps building, and that consumers across the political spectrum believe the economy has lost ground since the start of the year. With midterm elections 25 days away, sentiment improved among both Democrats and Republicans, but a decline among independents more than offset those gains.

The pain is uneven. Lower-income households and those with smaller stock portfolios, the groups with the least cushion against rising prices, saw sentiment decline this month. That divide matters: a market rally does little for the families that don’t own much of the market.

Inflation expectations are moving the wrong way

Consumers now expect prices to rise 4.7% over the next year, up from 4.6% in September and well above the 3.4% recorded in February, when the Middle East conflict and the resulting energy shock began. Long-run expectations ticked up to 3.5% from 3.4%, and they have stayed above the 2.8%–3.2% range seen in 2024. Expectations matter because they can become self-reinforcing, influencing wage demands and pricing decisions.

Energy is a major driver. Gas prices are up more than $1.50 a gallon on average since the war began, according to AAA, and have held above $4 since mid-summer.

Borrowing costs add pressure

Rates are compounding the problem. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed above 5%, with some analysts warning it could approach 6%, a level not seen since 2000. That flows directly into household borrowing: Freddie Mac reports the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.4% this week, a three-year high. Concerns about a national debt now above $40 trillion are also weighing on consumer views of buying conditions.

Why it matters for investors

Consumer spending drives roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, so sentiment readings are worth watching. A weak mood combined with elevated inflation expectations leaves the Federal Reserve in a difficult spot: easing is harder to justify when households expect higher prices, but tighter financial conditions risk squeezing the consumer further. Retail, housing-related, and consumer discretionary names are the most exposed if sentiment keeps deteriorating and spending follows.

What to watch next

The October figure is preliminary, and the final reading is due later this month. Investors should watch whether sentiment stabilizes or keeps sliding, whether year-ahead inflation expectations push further above 4.7%, and how the 10-year yield behaves as it flirts with higher levels. Gas prices and mortgage rates will also be telling: if they ease, the pressure on households could lift; if they keep climbing, the sentiment gap between higher- and lower-income consumers may widen further.

Fed Was Unanimous on the September Hike, but October Odds Have Faded

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Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September 16 meeting, released Wednesday, show that every participant agreed interest rates needed to move higher. The committee voted unanimously to raise the federal funds rate, its first increase in three years, and most members projected at least one more quarter-point hike before the end of the year.

The minutes describe a committee that saw inflation as elevated and the labor market as near full employment, with some signs of strengthening. Economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. Almost all participants judged that risks to inflation were tilted to the upside, while risks to the labor market had diminished and were now broadly balanced. That balance of risks was the basis for the hike.

But the data since that meeting has shifted the picture. Core PCE inflation, the Fed’s preferred gauge, rose 3% in August, below the 3.3% economists expected and down from 3.3% in July. Then the September jobs report came in far weaker than forecast, with just 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2% from 4.1%. In other words, the two conditions that justified the hike, stubborn inflation and a firming labor market, both looked softer within weeks.

Several officials had already begun tempering expectations before the jobs report. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams both acknowledged that inflation remains too high but said the central bank should take time to assess whether it is on a downward path. Williams said there is no need for urgency after the September increase and that the Fed has time to gather more information. That marks a notable shift from late September, when other officials were publicly arguing that more hikes were needed. Core inflation at 3% is still well above the Fed’s 2% target, so the debate now appears to be about timing rather than direction.

Markets have adjusted accordingly. The Fed meets again October 27 and 28, and futures now price only about a 17% chance of a hike at that meeting, down from roughly two-thirds in late September. The odds of a hike in December sit near 70%, which suggests traders see the Fed pausing rather than finishing.

A pause would not necessarily bring relief to long-term borrowing costs. The 10-year Treasury yield is still near 5.3%, and much of the recent rise has reflected investors demanding higher real returns to hold long-dated debt rather than the Fed’s policy rate, a dynamic that a pause in hikes may do little to change.

For small and microcap investors, the shift matters. Roughly 32% of Russell 2000 companies carry floating-rate debt, compared with about 6% of S&P 500 companies, so changes in the expected path of short-term rates flow more directly into smaller companies’ interest costs. A pause at the current range of 3.75% to 4.00% would stabilize that expense, while a December hike would extend it. The weaker jobs data cuts both ways, since easing rate pressure helps leveraged balance sheets but a cooling labor market can hurt consumer-facing companies that depend on household spending, such as restaurant operator The ONE Group Hospitality and travel deals publisher Travelzoo.

Inflation Holds at 3.4% as Energy Costs Surge, Complicating the Fed’s Next Move

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U.S. inflation remained stubbornly elevated in August as a sharp increase in energy prices pushed consumer costs higher, adding another complication for the Federal Reserve ahead of next week’s policy meeting.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in August, accelerating from a 0.1% increase in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the past 12 months, consumer prices were up 3.4%, unchanged from July and still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.

Energy was the clearest source of pressure. The gasoline index climbed 3.9% during August and accounted for more than one-third of the overall monthly CPI increase, while the broader energy index rose 2.1%. Compared with a year earlier, energy prices were up 16.3% and gasoline prices had surged 27.4%.

That jump comes as oil markets have been repeatedly disrupted by escalating conflict in the Middle East, where restrictions on shipping and threats to energy infrastructure have pushed crude prices sharply higher. The effects are now becoming increasingly visible in the inflation data.

Energy Reverses July’s Inflation Relief

The August reading represents a meaningful shift from the previous month. Energy prices had fallen 1.5% in July, helping limit the overall CPI increase to just 0.1%. Gasoline declined 2.9% that month. By August, both trends had reversed sharply as renewed geopolitical risk began filtering through commodity and retail fuel markets.

Gasoline’s 3.9% monthly increase was the largest single contributor to August inflation, but other petroleum-related costs are also showing pressure. Producer-price data released Thursday showed diesel fuel prices jumping 24.1% in August, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the increase in processed goods for intermediate demand. Prices for jet fuel, gasoline, heating oil and crude petroleum also moved higher.

That matters because energy can affect inflation well beyond what consumers pay at the gas station. Higher diesel and jet-fuel costs can raise shipping, airline and logistics expenses, while elevated crude prices increase input costs for products ranging from plastics and chemicals to packaging and agriculture. In other words, an energy shock can begin as a relatively concentrated increase in gasoline prices and gradually spread through a much wider portion of the economy if it persists.

Core Inflation Is Cooler, But Not Gone

The picture looks somewhat better when volatile food and energy prices are removed. Core CPI rose 0.3% in August and was up 2.4% from a year earlier, easing from 2.5% in July. That suggests underlying inflation remains considerably more contained than the headline number and much closer to the Federal Reserve’s target.

Shelter, however, remains an important source of ongoing inflation. Housing costs increased 0.3% during August and were 3.0% higher than a year ago. Airline fares were another standout, rising 23.4% over the past 12 months, while food prices rose 0.1% in August and 2.7% over the year. There were offsets. Medical-care prices declined 0.2% during the month, motor vehicle insurance fell 0.8%, and apparel and recreation prices were unchanged.

Taken together, the report suggests that the current inflation problem is increasingly uneven. Many underlying categories have cooled significantly from the inflationary surge of recent years, but energy has emerged again as a powerful external source of price pressure.

Why CPI Matters So Much for Interest Rates

Inflation reports are among the most closely watched economic releases because they directly influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy. The Fed’s primary tool for fighting inflation is interest rates. Higher rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can cool demand for homes, cars, business investment and other interest-sensitive spending. Weaker demand can eventually reduce businesses’ ability to raise prices and bring inflation lower.

That relationship is one reason financial markets can react sharply to CPI reports. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading can lead investors to anticipate higher rates or fewer rate cuts, often pushing Treasury yields higher and creating pressure on rate-sensitive assets. Softer inflation can produce the opposite reaction.

August’s report is particularly important because it is the final major inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 meeting. The challenge for policymakers is that headline inflation has been pushed upward by an energy shock that monetary policy cannot directly control. Raising interest rates cannot reopen shipping lanes or increase oil production. But if higher energy prices begin spreading into wages, transportation, goods and services, the Fed may have less room to look through the increase.

An Uncomfortable Combination for Consumers

For households, the August report highlights why headline inflation still matters even when economists often focus on core inflation. Consumers cannot simply exclude food and energy from their budgets.

A 27.4% year-over-year increase in gasoline prices can have an immediate effect on disposable income, particularly for commuters and lower-income households. Higher fuel prices can also eventually show up in airfare, shipping charges and goods delivered by truck.

The latest inflation numbers are also arriving at a time when wage growth has become less supportive. Recent data show wage growth trailing inflation, which means purchasing power can deteriorate even if the overall inflation rate is far below the extremes reached earlier in the decade. That helps explain why consumers can continue to feel significant affordability pressure even when economists describe inflation as having moderated.

Inflation measures the rate at which prices are increasing — not whether prices have returned to previous levels. Once prices rise, a lower inflation rate simply means they are increasing more slowly.

Oil Could Determine What Happens Next

The trajectory of inflation over the next several months may depend increasingly on what happens in energy markets. If Middle East tensions ease and crude prices retreat, gasoline and transportation costs could reverse relatively quickly, removing a major source of headline inflation. That would allow the longer-running moderation in core inflation to become more visible.

If oil prices remain elevated or rise further, however, the economic consequences become broader. Gasoline has already accounted for more than one-third of the August monthly CPI increase. Continued increases in diesel, jet fuel and crude prices could gradually push transportation and production costs higher throughout the economy.

That is the risk policymakers and investors will be watching closely: whether August represents a temporary energy-driven interruption in the disinflation trend or the beginning of another round of price pressures.

The Fed Faces a Different Inflation Problem

The inflation challenge today looks different from the broad-based price surge that originally forced the Federal Reserve into aggressive monetary tightening. Core inflation has declined substantially, many goods categories are relatively stable, and housing inflation has moderated. But the economy is now dealing with a renewed external shock from energy markets while overall inflation remains above target.

That creates an uncomfortable policy tradeoff. Respond too aggressively to an energy-driven spike, and the Fed risks slowing an economy to address inflation that interest rates have limited ability to fix. Respond too cautiously, and higher energy costs could become embedded in broader prices and inflation expectations.

For investors, that means the CPI report carries implications well beyond the gasoline pump. Inflation influences Treasury yields, mortgage rates, equity valuations, corporate borrowing costs and expectations for monetary policy across nearly every asset class.

August’s data offer both encouraging and concerning signals: core inflation continues to move closer to the Fed’s goal, but the energy shock is now large enough to prevent headline inflation from making the same progress. For the moment, 3.4% inflation is holding steady. What happens next may depend as much on oil markets and geopolitical developments as on conditions inside the U.S. economy.

The 10-Year Treasury Just Hit Its Highest Level Since 2023

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The 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.814% Wednesday, its highest level since November 2023, before easing slightly to 4.77%. The 30-year yield sat at 5.26%, still hovering near the multi-decade highs that rattled markets last month. This is not a new, isolated story. It is the direct convergence of three separate threads that have each been building independently over recent weeks.

The first is oil. Crude prices pushed toward $95 a barrel this week after fresh US strikes on Iran, extending the renewed escalation we covered when fighting resumed after the earlier ceasefire lapsed. Elevated energy prices continue feeding directly into inflation expectations, and rising inflation expectations are one of the most reliable drivers of higher long-term bond yields.

The second is the Fed itself. Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish tone at his debut Jackson Hole speech last week set the stage, and Fed Governor Michelle Barr reinforced that posture Tuesday, stating the central bank should raise rates in September if inflation does not show sufficient signs of moderating. Prediction markets responded accordingly, with odds of a September rate hike on Polymarket climbing to 56% following Warsh’s initial remarks, up meaningfully from where they stood before Jackson Hole.

The third thread is less obvious but genuinely important. Rising yields are not only about oil and Fed policy, they also reflect growing investor concern over government debt levels and expanding fiscal deficits, alongside a separate but related dynamic in corporate debt markets. Technology companies building out AI infrastructure are increasingly turning to bond markets to fund that buildout, since the scale of spending required has outpaced what free cash flow alone can cover, a dynamic we detailed closely when BlackRock priced its $12.3 billion data center bond offering for Meta and when CoreWeave raised its own capital expenditure guidance earlier this summer. That wave of new corporate debt issuance adds further supply pressure to long-term bond markets at the exact moment government borrowing is already elevated, a combination that tends to push yields higher independent of any single catalyst.

The market reaction Wednesday reflected this convergence clearly. Rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks sold off sharply, with several names in the AI infrastructure and networking space falling double digits on the day, a pattern consistent with what happens whenever long-term borrowing costs move decisively higher.

For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, this is precisely the kind of environment worth watching closely. Small and microcap companies carry disproportionately more variable-rate debt than large cap peers, and when oil, Fed policy expectations, and corporate debt supply are all pushing in the same direction simultaneously, the resulting pressure on borrowing costs tends to be more durable and harder to reverse with any single piece of good news. The individual pieces of this story are all familiar. What matters now is that they are no longer moving independently, they are compounding.

The PCE Data Just Came In. It Tilts Toward a September Rate Hike, Not Away From It

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The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets most closely, rose 3.7% year over year in July, up from 3.6% in June, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, coming in a touch stronger than economists had expected. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is viewed as the cleaner read on underlying inflation pressure, held at 3.3% year over year, showing no improvement from the prior month.

This is the exact data release we flagged as pivotal heading into Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, and it landed on the more hawkish side of the range economists had modeled. The result directly conflicts with earlier reports that had shown consumer price inflation cooling over the prior couple of months, reinforcing just how genuinely unresolved the inflation picture remains heading into the fall.

The Fed has held its policy rate steady in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% since December. Warsh has publicly committed to bringing inflation back to target, but has offered no clear signal on whether he believes that can happen without additional rate increases, and Wednesday’s data does nothing to support the case that it will happen on its own. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, put it bluntly, the United States still has an inflation problem, and argued the latest data buys Warsh some time to wait and assess, but that he will need to be considerably clearer about what specific conditions would actually prompt him to raise rates.

Markets moved quickly to reprice the odds. Fed funds futures now reflect roughly a 44% probability of a September rate hike, up from about 36% just before this report, and traders are now fully pricing in that the Fed will have raised its policy rate by year end.

For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, this shift in rate expectations carries direct and immediate consequences. Small and microcap businesses typically carry considerably more variable-rate debt than large cap companies, meaning every incremental increase in the probability of a Fed hike translates into a real, measurable increase in borrowing costs across this segment of the market. This report also sharpens the stakes for Warsh’s Jackson Hole address, which now arrives with markets meaningfully more convinced a hike is coming than they were just days ago, making his tone and language around this data the most consequential signal small cap investors will get before the Fed’s actual September decision.

Consumer Sentiment Rose in July Even as Gas Prices Climbed Back Above $4

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American consumers grew more optimistic in July, even as the war with Iran appeared to widen and gasoline prices climbed back above $4 a gallon. The University of Michigan’s final assessment of consumer sentiment for the month showed the headline index climbed nearly 12% from June’s level to 55.2, slightly above the already elevated preliminary reading of 54.4 released earlier in the month.

That improvement comes with an important caveat. Sentiment remains 11% below where it stood a year ago, reflecting what the survey’s director described as a generally somber view of the economy shaped by five years of elevated inflation and persistently high prices. Consumers appear to be focused primarily on pocketbook concerns like purchasing power, with political and military developments registering as more of a background concern than a driver of sentiment itself.

Two Surveys, Two Different Signals

The improvement in the University of Michigan reading stands in contrast to a separate measure of consumer attitudes. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index actually slid in July, with respondents citing higher gas and grocery prices as a concern even as mentions of geopolitical tension declined. The divergence between the two surveys underscores how sensitive consumer sentiment has become to specific, tangible cost pressures rather than broader macro or political narratives.

The Inflation Backdrop

The sentiment data arrives alongside a genuinely mixed set of economic signals. June consumer prices grew 3.5% year over year, with average hourly earnings gains just barely keeping pace even as inflation cooled modestly from its apparent peak in May. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, showed a similar pattern, slower price growth in June compared to the prior month, but still elevated relative to the Fed’s target.

Separately, data released this week showed second quarter economic growth came in slower than expected. Notably, consumer spending itself remained strong even as overall GDP growth decelerated, a combination that suggests households are continuing to spend despite feeling squeezed by prices, rather than pulling back broadly.

Why This Matters for Small Cap Investors

For companies operating below the $2 billion market cap threshold, this data presents a genuinely nuanced picture rather than a clean bullish or bearish signal. Rising sentiment alongside continued strong consumer spending is a constructive combination for consumer-facing small caps in retail, restaurants, and discretionary goods, even if that sentiment remains historically depressed and gas prices continue pressuring household budgets.

The divergence between the University of Michigan and Conference Board surveys is also worth watching closely in the months ahead. If the softer Conference Board reading proves to be the more accurate leading indicator, consumer-facing small caps could see demand soften even as broader sentiment metrics suggest improvement. If the University of Michigan’s more optimistic reading holds, it would support the case that consumers are adapting to a higher cost environment rather than retreating from it entirely, a distinction that matters considerably for companies planning inventory, staffing, and pricing strategy heading into the back half of the year.

June’s Cool CPI Print Sends Treasuries Rallying and Fed Hike Odds Tumbling

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Consumer prices came in far cooler than expected in June, and markets reacted fast. Treasury yields dropped sharply and bets on a July interest rate hike nearly evaporated.

The Consumer Price Index fell 0.4% from May to June, the largest single-month decline since April 2020. On an annual basis, inflation eased to 3.5%. Both figures beat expectations by a wide margin, with forecasts calling for just a 0.1% monthly decline and a 3.8% annual reading.

Falling energy prices did much of the work, as drivers saw real relief at the pump. That’s a sharp reversal from May, when a temporary spike in gas prices tied to conflict in the Middle East had pushed inflation higher.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also came in soft. Core prices were flat month-over-month and up 2.6% year-over-year, again below expectations that had priced in a 0.2% monthly gain driven by higher travel and electronics costs.

Bond traders repriced their outlook almost immediately. The two-year Treasury yield, the maturity most sensitive to near-term Fed policy, fell as much as 14 basis points to 4.14%, on pace for its biggest one-day drop since February. Rate-hike expectations for the July Fed meeting, as measured by the swaps market, collapsed from around 40% probability before the report to roughly 20% after.

Market watchers are describing the report as a broad, downside surprise. Fear of a hot print had been building heading into the release, so the miss is being read as bond-friendly and likely to help steepen the yield curve. The growing consensus is that the Fed holds steady rather than moves on rates this month.

The timing is notable. The report landed just a day before the Fed chair is set to testify before Congress for the first time in his role, with inflation expected to be a central topic. Prepared remarks released ahead of the hearing struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing zero tolerance for persistently high inflation. It’ll be worth watching whether that tone shifts now that the data has moved in the Fed’s favor.

The CPI release also landed alongside a strong batch of bank earnings, with results pointing to a resilient underlying economy even as price pressures ease. That combination matters: a slowdown in inflation paired with weak growth would raise questions about the economy’s health, but paired with solid earnings, it reads instead as a sign that price pressures are normalizing without derailing activity.

It’s also a meaningful shift in narrative after a rough spring. May’s inflation report ran hot, largely because of an energy price spike tied to geopolitical tension, and it left markets bracing for a similarly uncomfortable June number. Instead, energy prices reversed course and gave consumers breathing room, which shows up clearly in both the headline and core figures.

For everyday spending, this kind of pullback tends to show up first at the pump and then gradually filters into other categories, though the core reading suggests broader price pressures outside food and energy are still holding fairly steady rather than reversing outright.

Put together, cooler inflation paired with solid earnings is often the combination markets like best — it eases pressure on the Fed without signaling economic weakness. With rate-hike odds falling and yields pulling back, the setup looks constructive for both bonds and rate-sensitive stocks heading into this week’s testimony and the rest of earnings season. Investors will likely be watching upcoming data closely to see whether June’s cooldown holds or proves to be a one-month blip.

Fed Chair Warsh’s Inflation Hard Line Puts Rate-Sensitive Investors on Notice

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There was no ambiguity in Sintra, Portugal on Wednesday. Speaking at the European Central Bank’s annual forum on central banking, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a clear message to anyone hoping the Fed had quietly accepted a new normal: it has not. “If there were people who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%,” Warsh said, “I guess they’d be disappointed. We’re going to deliver price stability in the US.”

The comments came two weeks after Warsh’s first press conference as Fed chair, where he struck a markedly more hawkish tone than markets anticipated. Rates remain at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the Fed’s own projections now show officials expect headline inflation to reach 3.6% this year, up sharply from an earlier estimate of 2.7%. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose to 3.4% in May, its highest reading since October 2023.

Warsh Is Deliberately Withholding Forward Guidance

One of the more consequential shifts under Warsh is what he is choosing not to say. Traditional Fed communication has relied on forward guidance, the practice of telegraphing the likely direction of rates in advance. Warsh has signaled he wants to curtail that approach, and Wednesday’s appearance was consistent: asked about the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, he offered almost nothing beyond promising a “good debate” behind closed doors.

For markets conditioned to reading Fed signals, the absence of guidance is itself a message. Investors can no longer price in a clear rate path, which introduces uncertainty that has historically weighed on higher-volatility, higher-risk assets.

A Complicated Inflation Picture

The path to 2% runs through several crosscurrents. Oil prices fell after President Trump announced a tentative deal with Iran, but negotiations have stalled and both sides have resumed strikes, keeping energy price volatility alive. Meanwhile, AI-driven demand appears to be pushing core prices higher even as supply-side productivity gains remain a future promise rather than a current reality. When asked whether AI is ultimately inflationary, Warsh declined to draw a conclusion, noting only that the Fed will make that determination and act accordingly.

Warsh also pushed back on any suggestion that political pressure would influence policy. “We’ve been an independent central bank for a very long time,” he said. “We’re going to be an independent central bank at this moment.”

What This Means for Small and Microcap Investors

This matters more for small and microcap investors than for almost any other market segment. Companies under $2 billion in market cap carry a disproportionate share of floating rate debt and depend more heavily on external financing to fund growth. When the rate path tilts toward hikes rather than cuts, the cost of that capital rises quickly, and smaller balance sheets feel it first.

The Russell 2000’s record-setting first half of 2026 was built partly on expectations of rate relief that are now being recalibrated. With the July 29 decision approaching and core inflation running above 3%, investors in smaller companies should pay close attention to balance sheet composition. Companies with manageable debt loads and strong cash generation are best positioned to navigate a higher-for-longer environment. Warsh has made his priorities clear. The question now is how quickly inflation answers back.

The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Just Hit a 3-Year High. A Rate Hike Is Back on the Table

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The inflation data the Federal Reserve cares about most just delivered an unwelcome surprise. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the gauge the FOMC uses to measure progress toward its 2% target — rose to its highest level in three years in May, according to data released Thursday. The reading keeps the prospect of a 2026 interest rate hike firmly in play and complicates the path forward for a central bank already navigating one of the most difficult macro environments in years.

Headline PCE climbed to 3.5% year over year, up from the prior month and the highest since 2023. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is the measure policymakers watch most closely, also accelerated. The data confirms what last month’s Consumer Price Index reading had already suggested: inflation is not cooling on the timeline markets had hoped for, and the energy-driven spike from the US-Iran conflict has bled into the broader price picture.

Why This Keeps a Hike in Play

The report lands just over a week after new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first FOMC meeting, where the committee held rates steady but dropped its long-standing easing bias and signaled through its updated projections that nine of 18 officials now expect at least one rate hike before year-end. Thursday’s PCE reading strengthens that hawkish case considerably. Markets are now pricing in elevated odds of a rate increase in the second half of 2026 — a dramatic reversal from the rate cuts that were consensus just a few months ago.

For the Fed, the data presents a genuine dilemma. Inflation is accelerating while consumer sentiment recently hit an all-time low and growth signals have been mixed. That combination raises the specter of stagflation — the most difficult environment for any central bank to manage, and one with outsized consequences for smaller, rate-sensitive companies.

Where the Pressure Lands

The companies most exposed to this environment are consumer-facing businesses and those carrying significant variable-rate debt. When inflation erodes real household purchasing power, discretionary spending on dining, travel, apparel, and other non-essentials is typically the first to contract — pressuring the smaller consumer-facing companies that lack the pricing power and balance sheet depth of their large cap peers.

Energy sits on the other side of the equation. As the primary driver of May’s inflation spike, elevated energy prices that squeeze consumers can simultaneously support revenues for oil, gas, and energy infrastructure producers. That divergence is part of what makes the current inflation picture so difficult for the Fed to address with a single policy lever — the same force hurting one part of the economy is helping another.

What Comes Next

The PCE reading sets up a tense second half of the year. If energy prices continue easing as the Iran ceasefire holds and oil retreats below $75, the inflation picture could improve meaningfully in the coming months, giving the Fed room to hold rather than hike. If price pressures prove stickier and spread further into core categories, the case for a hike strengthens with each data release.

For small and microcap investors, the message is to watch the inflation trajectory as closely as the Fed itself. The cost of capital for smaller companies — which carry disproportionately more floating-rate debt than large caps — hinges directly on whether this PCE reading marks a peak or the start of a more troubling trend. Thursday’s number tilted the odds toward caution. The next several data points will determine whether that caution becomes conviction.

Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.52% as Hot Inflation and a Blowout Jobs Report Bury Rate Cut Hopes

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The brief window of mortgage rate optimism that opened earlier this spring is closing quickly. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage climbed to 6.52% in the week ending Wednesday, according to Freddie Mac, up from 6.48% the prior week and continuing a drift higher that has now persisted for four consecutive weeks. Rates have been anchored around 6.5% since mid-May — high enough to meaningfully suppress affordability for buyers and far enough above the lows of late 2024 to keep the refinance market largely frozen for the millions of homeowners who locked in rates between 6% and 7% over the past two years.

The catalyst for this week’s move is not one data point but two arriving in rapid succession. Last Friday’s May jobs report showed the economy added 172,000 positions — nearly double the 88,000 economists had expected. Three days earlier, the May Consumer Price Index showed inflation running at 4.2% year over year, the highest reading since 2023, driven primarily by energy costs directly tied to the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Together the two reports delivered a blunt macro message: the US economy is not slowing down, inflation is not cooling, and the Federal Reserve has neither the room nor the justification to cut interest rates anytime soon.

The Fed Picture Has Shifted Materially

Markets have responded accordingly. According to CME FedWatch data, approximately two-thirds of traders now expect the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates at least once before the end of 2026. As recently as March, the consensus expectation was for two rate cuts by year-end. That expectation has been fully reversed by the combination of persistent energy-driven inflation, a resilient labor market, and a new Federal Reserve chair in Kevin Warsh whose hawkish reputation the market is still calibrating.

Warsh chairs his first FOMC meeting June 16-17 — five days from today. A rate hike is not expected at this meeting, but his post-decision press conference and the committee’s updated dot plot will be the most consequential signal for mortgage rates in the second half of 2026. If the dot plot reflects a committee leaning toward one or more hikes before year-end, Treasury yields will move higher and mortgage rates will follow.

The Housing Market Is Adapting — Imperfectly

Despite rates holding near 6.5% for the past month, buying and selling activity actually picked up in May — a signal that buyers are gradually recalibrating expectations around a higher-rate environment rather than waiting indefinitely for relief. The traditional spring selling season has not collapsed. It has simply compressed into a narrower band of motivated buyers and sellers willing to transact at current levels.

The challenge for smaller companies in the real estate ecosystem is that this adaptation is uneven. Regional homebuilders, independent mortgage originators, title insurance companies, and real estate technology platforms in the sub-$2 billion market cap range are all operating in a market where transaction volume remains structurally suppressed relative to the 2020-2022 cycle. Community banks and smaller mortgage lenders face an additional layer of complexity: the spread between their cost of funds and their lending rates determines profitability, and in a higher-for-longer environment, that spread is being compressed by competition for deposits.

For mortgage REITs — many of which trade in the small and microcap range — the combination of elevated short-term rates, a flat yield curve, and refinance activity near multi-decade lows represents a direct earnings headwind that is not resolving on any near-term timeline.

The 30-year fixed rate at 6.52% is not the ceiling. The FOMC meeting next week will determine whether it becomes the floor.

The Most Pessimistic American Consumer Sentiment in 74 Years Just Sent the Market a Warning

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The University of Michigan released its final May Consumer Sentiment reading Friday morning and the number landed well below even the most pessimistic forecasts. The index came in at 44.8 — a new all-time record low in a survey that has been tracking American consumer attitudes since 1952. The reading missed the consensus estimate of 48.2 by a wide margin, fell five full points from April’s already-depressed 49.8, and marked the third consecutive month of decline. No monthly reading in the survey’s 74-year history has ever been lower.

To place that in context: this reading is worse than June 2022 at the peak of post-pandemic inflation. Worse than the depths of the 2008 financial crisis. Worse than the early 1980s when Paul Volcker was hiking rates into double digits to break inflation. The American consumer, by this measure, has never been less confident about the economy than they are right now.

What’s Driving It

The culprits are not subtle. One-third of survey respondents spontaneously cited gasoline prices — unprompted — as a primary concern. Roughly 30% mentioned tariffs. The Iran conflict, now in its twelfth week, has pushed the national gas average to $4.56 per gallon according to AAA, up more than 50% since hostilities began February 28, and GasBuddy projects the summer average could reach $4.80 per gallon with $5 possible if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Inflation expectations are deteriorating further rather than stabilizing. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed from earlier in the month while long-run expectations rose from 3.5% in April to 3.9% in May — the highest reading since the Iran conflict began and well above the 2.8% to 3.2% range that prevailed throughout 2024. Surveys director Joanne Hsu noted that consumers appear to be moving beyond viewing the inflation pressure as temporary, increasingly worried it will spread beyond fuel prices and persist over the long run.

The demographic breakdown adds another layer. Lower-income consumers and those without college degrees — groups most sensitive to gas and grocery price increases — posted the sharpest sentiment declines. Independents and Republicans reached their lowest readings of Trump’s second term. The breadth of the deterioration, cutting across income levels, age groups, and political affiliations, signals this is not a narrow or politically driven reading. It is a broad-based erosion of consumer confidence.

The Direct Small Cap Implication

Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator — it tells you where spending is headed before the spending data confirms it. And for small and microcap investors, the message embedded in Friday’s reading is direct: companies that depend on discretionary consumer spending are heading into Q2 earnings season with the wind at their back nowhere.

Consumer-facing small caps in casual dining, specialty retail, leisure travel, and discretionary goods are the most exposed. Unlike large cap consumer companies with global revenue diversification and balance sheet depth to absorb volume softness, smaller operators have limited buffers. Margin compression from elevated input and fuel costs combined with softening top-line demand is a particularly difficult combination for companies already operating on thin margins.

The record low also raises the stakes for the Federal Reserve. Weak consumer confidence alongside elevated inflation expectations is the definition of a stagflationary signal — and a Fed led by incoming Chair Kevin Warsh that leans hawkish has limited room to provide relief. Rate cuts that smaller companies have been counting on to refinance variable-rate debt are moving further off the table with every data point like this one.

Seventy-four years of data. The American consumer has never felt worse. That number belongs in every small cap portfolio conversation happening right now.

Three Percent and Stuck: What February’s PCE Report Means for Small Cap Investors

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February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, released Thursday, confirmed what many on Wall Street suspected but hoped wasn’t true: inflation remains stubbornly entrenched, and the Federal Reserve has no clear path to cutting interest rates anytime soon. For small and microcap investors, this isn’t just a macro headline — it’s a direct input into valuations, borrowing costs, and growth timelines.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge rose 2.8% in February on a headline basis. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is the number the Fed actually weighs policy decisions against, came in at 3.0% — exactly where it has been parked for three consecutive months. On a 3-month annualized basis, core inflation is running at 3.7%, nearly double the Fed’s 2% target. The report was delayed from its original March 27 release date due to the government shutdown last fall, making today’s release the first clean read the market has had in months.

The timing is particularly complicated. This data reflects economic conditions that existed before the Iran conflict escalated, before oil prices surged, and before the Strait of Hormuz disruptions began compressing global supply chains. In other words, the inflation picture captured in February’s numbers is arguably the best it’s going to look for a while — and it still isn’t good enough for the Fed to act.

Goods inflation clocked in at 0.84% for the month, a figure economists point to as evidence that tariff pass-throughs are still working their way into consumer prices. That’s the sticky problem: even if geopolitical tensions ease, tariff-driven inflation has its own timeline, and the Fed can’t cut its way around it.

The one silver lining in the report was services inflation, which showed meaningful improvement in February. Services prices have been a persistent headache for central bankers because they typically reflect wage pressures and domestic demand — both harder to control than goods prices. The improvement suggests that underlying inflation may not be structurally broken, even as energy shocks pile on.

The practical read for small and microcap companies is this: the higher-for-longer rate environment is not lifting anytime soon. Small companies carry a disproportionate share of variable-rate debt and are more sensitive to the cost of capital than their large-cap counterparts. When borrowing costs stay elevated, growth initiatives slow, refinancing gets expensive, and M&A activity tightens — all headwinds for the small and microcap universe.

That said, today’s Iran ceasefire news introduces a meaningful counterweight. Oil prices have already begun pulling back, which relieves some of the near-term inflationary pressure the Fed has been bracing for. If the ceasefire holds and energy prices stabilize, the Fed may not need to hike — it just may not be in position to cut either.

Futures market participants have already absorbed this reality, with nearly 90% now expecting the Fed’s target rate to hold at 3.50%–3.75% through September 2026.

For investors focused on smaller companies, the message is clear: fundamentals matter more than ever in this environment. Companies with strong cash flows, manageable debt loads, and pricing power are best positioned to navigate a world where rate relief isn’t coming on anyone’s preferred schedule.