Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – New Contract Awards


Monday, March 13, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Awards. On Friday, Orion announced multiple contract awards since the beginning of 2023. Totaling $134 million across both businesses, the majority of the work is expected to be completed in 2023. Since the beginning of the year, the Concrete segment has been awarded $100 million across several contracts including $25 million for a 22-story high-rise building in Houston, $12 million for a Dallas hospital, and $10 million for a Dallas packaging center. The Marine segment was awarded the Company’s largest diving services contract of $20 million by a private client. The project is in support of the US Army Corps of Engineers’ ongoing deepening and widening of Gulf Coast shipping channels. The contract award is the largest diving contract in Orion’s history and will be completed by the end of 2023.

Executive Chairman Transition. Former CEO Austin J. Shanfelter transitioned from Executive Chairman to Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective March 2, 2023. Recall, from April to September 2022, Mr. Shanfelter assumed the roles of Interim Chief Executive Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer until Travis Boone, Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Thanisch, Chief Financial Officer, were appointed in September 2022.


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V2X, Inc. (VVX) – A Promising Future, Solid End to 2022


Monday, March 06, 2023

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Operating Results. In 4Q22, V2X grew revenue 20% on a pro forma basis to $978.2 million driven by new business wins, successful re-competes, and expansion of core programs. The Company reported a GAAP net loss of $10.6 million, or a loss of $0.35 per share, driven by costs related to the merger. On an adjusted basis, net income totaled $28.9 million, or EPS of $0.92. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $79.3 million for an 8.1% margin.

INDOPACOM Strong. Revenue in INDOPACOM grew sevenfold in the fourth quarter to $54 million from continued expansion and growth at Kwajalein and the Philippines. With an expanded presence in the region and increased funding to support the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, we expect revenues from INDOPACOM to continue to grow.


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Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) – Financial Results Weighed Down By Low Shipping Rates


Monday, March 06, 2023

Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc. (“Eagle”) is a US-based drybulk owner-operator focused on the Supramax/Ultramax mid-size asset class, which ranges from 50,000 and 65,000 deadweight tons in size; these vessels are equipped with onboard cranes allowing for the self-loading and unloading of cargoes, a feature which distinguishes them from the larger classes of drybulk vessels and provides for greatly enhanced flexibility and versatility- both with respect to cargo diversity and port accessibility. The Company transports a broad range of major and minor bulk cargoes around the world, including coal, grain, ore, pet coke, cement, and fertilizer. Eagle operates out of three offices, Stamford (headquarters), Singapore, and Hamburg, and performs all aspects of vessel management in-house including: commercial, operational, technical, and strategic.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Revenues decline despite the addition of ships as shipping rates decline. Eagle reported an 18% quarterly decline in revenues. A ship addition in September increased Eagle’s operating days. Average TCE rate declined 25% quarterly. The decline in revenues would have been much sharper had it not been for an $11 million realized gain from derivatives.

Operating costs continue to rise. Operating costs have risen steadily in recent quarters. Management again cited increased costs associated with transporting and housing Ukrainian employees. Management believes operating costs per ship will decline in upcoming quarters. Cash breakeven per ship days reached a level above $12,000 in the most recent quarter, close to Eagle’s fixed TCE rate in the upcoming quarter.


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Release – Austin J. Shanfelter to Transition Back to Chairman of the Board of Directors of Orion Group Holdings, Inc.

Research News and Market Data on ORN

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Mar 02, 2023

HOUSTON, March 02, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Orion Group Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ORN) (“Company”), a leading specialty construction company, today announced that Austin J. Shanfelter will transition from Executive Chairman to Chairman of the Board of Directors, effective March 2, 2023.

Mr. Shanfelter has served on Orion Group’s Board of Directors since 2007 and was named Chairman in January 2021. From April to September 2022, he assumed the roles of Interim Chief Executive Officer and Interim Chief Financial Officer until Travis Boone, Chief Executive Officer and Scott Thanisch, Chief Financial Officer were appointed in September 2022. Since then, Mr. Shanfelter served as Executive Chairman to ensure a smooth leadership transition. His transition back to Chairman of the Board marks the completion of this successful transition period.

“Orion has been a trusted provider of mission-critical specialty construction services for nearly thirty years,” said Austin J. Shanfelter, Chairman of the Board. “As we look forward to our next chapter, our Board has complete confidence that Travis Boone and Scott Thanisch are the right leadership team with the right experience to unlock the value of our assets by leveraging our distinctive capabilities and long-term customer relationships. Orion Group Holdings is well positioned to benefit from the greater public attention and funding that is now being focused on our country’s critical infrastructure needs. In my sixteen years as a director of our Company, we have never had a more talented and experienced management team and a more engaged board, who are singularly focused on positioning Orion to create sustainable value for all our stakeholders.”

Travis Boone, Chief Executive Officer of Orion Group Holdings said, “I want to thank Austin for his invaluable leadership as Executive Chair during this transition. Since becoming CEO, I have received the full support of a very dedicated and far-sighted Board and I look forward to their continued guidance as we execute our strategic plan to drive sustainable growth and profitability over time.”

Concurrent with Mr. Shanfelter becoming independent Chairman of the Board, Richard L. Daerr, Jr. stepped down as Lead Independent Director to remain as an independent board member. Orion Group Holding’s Board now consists of eight members, seven of whom are independent.

About Orion Group Holdings, Inc.

Orion Group Holdings, Inc., a leading specialty construction company serving the infrastructure, industrial and building sectors, provides services both on and off the water in the continental United States, Alaska, Canada and the Caribbean Basin through its marine segment and its concrete segment. The Company’s marine segment provides construction and dredging services relating to marine transportation facility construction, marine pipeline construction, marine environmental structures, dredging of waterways, channels and ports, environmental dredging, design, and specialty services. Its concrete segment provides turnkey concrete construction services including place and finish, site prep, layout, forming, and rebar placement for large commercial, structural and other associated business areas. The Company is headquartered in Houston, Texas with regional offices throughout its operating areas. Orion Group Holdings, Inc. – Specialty Construction Company (oriongroupholdingsinc.com)

Investor and Media Relations Contacts:
Financial Profiles, Inc.
Margaret Boyce 310-622-8247
Jack Drapacz 310-622-8230
orn@finprofiles.com

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Selected for a New Contract


Thursday, March 02, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

More Work. On Tuesday, DLH’s subsidiary Grove Resource Solutions LLC (“GRSi”) was awarded a multiple-award blanket purchase agreement to provide IT services to the National Cancer Institute’s (“NCI”) Center for Biomedical Informatics and Information Technology. The award is for a five-year period with an aggregate ceiling totaling $1.7 billion, and DLH will join seven other awardees in the contract.

Specifics. DLH will be acting as a prime vendor on the contract and provide NCI with the specialized professional IT support required to accomplish their goals. Other orders under call in the contract could include operations and maintenance, information systems security, service desk, engineering, cloud platform management and support, enterprise Software as a Service (“SaaS”) platform management, data management, etc.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – Building Momentum


Monday, February 27, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Results. Revenue totaled $249.3 million, up 17.8% y-o-y, and at the upper end of the $231-$251 million guidance. Organic growth was 4.1%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $19.2 million, at the lower end of guidance, versus $23.4 million a year ago. GAAP EPS loss was $0.07 and adjusted EPS net income was $0.08, compared to a net loss of $0.02 and adjusted EPS of $0.11, respectively, a year ago.

Building Momentum. We believe 2023 will be a transformative year for Kratos as programs will be transitioning from development RDT&E or LRIP to funded programs, contracts, or full rate production, driving greater revenue and cash flow.


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Seanergy Maritime (SHIP) – Estimates and Price Target Adjusted for 10-1 Reverse Split and Continued Shipping Rate Weakness


Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. is the only pure-play Capesize ship-owner publicly listed in the US. Seanergy provides marine dry bulk transportation services through a modern fleet of Capesize vessels. The Company’s operating fleet consists of 17 Capesize vessels with an average age of approximately 12 years and aggregate cargo carrying capacity of approximately 3,011,083 dwt. The Company is incorporated in the Marshall Islands and has executive offices in Glyfada, Greece. The Company’s common shares trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol “SHIP” and its Class B warrants under “SHIPZ”.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Seanergy completes a 10-1 reverse stock split effective February 16, 2023.  With the reverse split, the number of outstanding shares is reduced to 18,191,647 from 181,918,471 and then adjusted for the cancellation of fractional shares. We are raising our earnings per share estimates to reflect the change, essentially raising our numbers by ten fold with some adjustment for recent shipping rate weakness.

Our price target increases slightly less than ten fold. We are adjusting our price target to $10 from $1.50 to reflect the reverse stock split. Our PO was increased less than ten times as we have adjusted our models to reflect weaker current shipping rates. In addition, we have changed our valuation methodology from a multiple of next year’s ebitda to a discounted cash flow model. Our new methodology projects out cash flow generation for five years so that long-term valuations will be based on mid-cycle shipping rates (in this case $20,000/day) instead of basing stock valuation on peak or valley shipping rates.


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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – A Weak End to a Challenging Year


Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q22 Operating Results. Revenue totaled $146.7 million down from $210 million last year. Gross margin was negative 11%, down from 25.2% in the year ago period. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was a negative $24.2 million versus $48.2 million last year. The Company reported a loss of $31.2 million, or a loss of $0.47 per share for the quarter, compared to last year’s net income of $24.7 million, or $0.37 per diluted share.

Drivers. While management in late December had indicated fourth quarter results would be below previous expectations, the decline was even deeper than anticipated. The fourth quarter continued to be impacted by a significantly delayed bid market combined with high inflation, significant weather delays on projects in the Northeast, fewer high margin capital projects, dredging project production issues, higher than anticipated drydock costs, and the retirement of the Terrapin Island.


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Euroseas (ESEA) – Full Book Protecting Against Shipping Rate Declines


Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Euroseas Ltd. was formed on May 5, 2005 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the ship owning interests of the Pittas family of Athens, Greece, which has been in the shipping business over the past 140 years. Euroseas trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker ESEA. Euroseas operates in the container shipping market. Euroseas’ operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company, which is responsible for the day-to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. Euroseas employs its vessels on spot and period charters and through pool arrangements.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Euroseas, LTD reported 2022-4Q results that were generally in line with expectations. Reported EBITDA and Net Income were slightly better than expected due to lower operating costs. However, adjusted EBITDA and Net Income were slightly below expectations due primarily to a $3.9 million reduction associated with the amortization of fair value of below market time charters acquired. The 12.1% increase in net revenues was the result of an increase in the number of vessels (18 versus 15). Average TCE rates of $29,399 per day were slightly above our $28,900 forecast and slightly below year ago rates of $30,068. Steady rates reflect ESEA’s full charter position.

The future continues to look bright for Euroseas.  80% of its ships are fixed for 2023 and 54% for 2024 representing $425 million in contracted revenues. The full order book has become especially important given a sharp decline in shipping rates in the second half of 2022. Unfortunately, a company has repudiated its charter with Euroseas. The company is growing with the order of nine newbuilds — the first of which is to be delivered next month and has a three-year charter at $48,000 per day. The addition of ships at a favorable rate should help offset a decline in rates as ships come off charter and prices are reset to current shipping rates.


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EuroDry (EDRY) – Sensitivity to shipping rates is hurting results & could get worse


Tuesday, February 14, 2023

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Lower shipping rates hurting results. Eurodry reported 2022-4Q revenues, net, of $15.1 million versus $22.3 million and below our projection of $19.9 million. Average TCE rates for the quarter were $16,689 versus $29,157 and our $18,982 estimate. Lower shipping rates led to a a 54% decline in adj. ebitda and a 78% decrease in adjusted net income. The sharp declines demonstrate Eurodry’s extreme sensitivity to shipping rates.

Shipping rate sensitivity will only increase in upcoming months. Fleet rate coverage drops off dramatically after the 2023-1Q. In fact, all 11 ships will be exposed to spot or indexed prices. This, combined with a further drop in shipping rates in February, could result in a difficult upcoming quarter for the company. Management estimates it would need rates above $12,700 to be cash flow breakeven while noting current prices in the $6,000-$7,000 range.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

DLH Holdings (DLHC) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models


Friday, February 10, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Stronger DLH. The addition of GRSi is a transformative event, in our opinion, creating a more differentiated and powerful Company, with a combined nearly $1 billion of backlog and a new business pipeline that provides significant future growth opportunities. With favorable end markets, DLH is in the right place, at the right time, with the right solutions, in our view.

Strong Growth in Key Programs. DLH saw excellent growth in its key VA and HHS programs. VA pharmacy revenue rose 23% y-o-y to $19.2 million, VA logistics services revenue jumped 15% to $14.5 million, and HHS Head Start revenue increased 34% to $9.1 million, as services offered under this program returned to a more normal pre-COVID level.


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DLH Holdings (DLHC) – A First Look at 1Q23 Results


Thursday, February 09, 2023

DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1QFY23 Results. Revenue totaled $72.7 million, down from $152.8 million in 1Q22, due to the absence of the short-term FEMA contract. DLH reported GAAP earnings of $1.5 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, compared to $7.8 million, or $0.55 per diluted share last year. EBITDA was $6.3 million, or 8.7% of revenue, compared to $13.2 million and 8.6% last year.

Adjusted Results. Adjusting for both the FEMA contribution last year and the partial quarter GRSi contribution in 1Q23, DLH would have reported revenue of $65.9 million, up from $61.7 million a year ago. Adjusted operating income was $5.3 million, compared to $4.9 million. Adjusted net income totaled $3.6 million, or EPS of $0.25, compared to $3.1 million and $0.22 last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $7.2 million, or 10.9% of adjusted revenue, compared to $6.9 million, or 11.1%, last year.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – $49.6 Million Contract for Unmanned Targets


Wednesday, February 01, 2023

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director – Generalist Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

BQM-177A Targets. Last night, the Department of Defense announced it has awarded Kratos a $49.6 million firm-fixed-price contract for the production and delivery of 55 full rate production Lot 4 BQM-177A Surface Launched Aerial Targets. Included in the award are 55 rocket assisted takeoff attachment kits, 277 mission kits, and associated technical and administrative data. The work is being conducted for the U.S. Navy, as well as the governments of Canada and Australia. The contract is expected to be completed in April 2024.

Valkyrie Flying at Eglin. Eglin Air Force Base recently conducted an operational experimentation test flight of the Valkyrie. Recall, this past fall, two government-owned Kratos XQ-58A Valkyries were transferred to Eglin. Notably, Eglin is an Air Force base as opposed to the Yuma Proving Ground, were the majority of the Valkyrie testing has been done, which is operated by the Army. The resources available at Eglin are a major reason XQ-58A testing found a new home at the base. The Eglin Range communications support infrastructure will allow engineers at the ground station in the Central Control Facility to monitor the vehicle’s performance during flight.


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