Friday, August 22, 2025
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
ISAP RFP. In a somewhat surprising development, Immigration and Customs Enforcement has issued a request for proposals for the fifth iteration of its Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP), with a plan to award a potential $2 billion indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Consensus expectations were that an RFP would be released more towards the end of 2025.
Details. The contract will have a maximum performance period of two years, divided into two one-year ordering periods, a significant change from the prior 5-year performance periods. Responses are due by September 1st, a much shorter period than the 6 weeks from the 2019 contract. The contract is scheduled to begin on October 1, 2025.
Best Value. Bids will be measured on the Best Value Trade-off principle, with the three evaluation factors
being, in terms of importance, (i) prior experience, (ii) technical scenarios, and (iii) price. Prior experience
and technical scenarios will be significantly more important than price.
Implication. The $2 billion max award over a two-year period suggests ICE is expecting a significant
increase in the number of ISAP participants. We would note that in 2024 GEO, the long-time holder of the
ISAP contract, generated approximately $330 million of revenue in its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, at a time when the average population was roughly 185,000.
Thoughts. The short response period, 2-year period of performance, and Best Value Trade-off principle
would all appear to favor the incumbent contract holder, in this case, GEO, in our opinion. We are somewhat surprised ICE is not seeking multiple awardees, although the relatively short nature of this award may reflect a stop gap to enable ICE to figure out any complexities of having multiple awardees.
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Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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