Tag: FOMC

Can We Expect a Stock Market Rally After the FOMC Meeting on November 2nd?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image Credit: AlphaTradeZone (Pexels)

Will the November Fed rate announcement cause a stock market rally?

The next time the Federal Reserve is expected to adjust the target range of the Fed Funds overnight lending rate is Wednesday, November 2nd. Few have doubt at this point that this will again be a 0.75% increase. That level is already baked into equities. Stock market strength and direction shouldn’t veer much from the rate move but could dramatically turn as a result of the Fed’s forward guidance. If Chairman Powell & Co. suggests a slower benchmark lending rate increase, it would be a very welcome sign for investors.

Focus on the Post Meeting Announcement

There are already signs the Fed may slow the pace of Fed Funds increases. There are also indications it may alter its quantitative tightening (QT) in a way that could quicken a yield curve steepening. In other words, the speed of QT may increase. To date, the real rate of return on bonds, of most all maturities, is viewed as unnatural as they are below zero (Yield – Inflation = Real Rate). While an increase in QT may do more to raise rates and reduce the money supply, the effect is stealthier; it doesn’t provide a panicky headline for investors to react to abruptly. 

Some Fed governors have already shown signs that they believe the best course from here is to slow the ratcheting up of the funds level and perhaps even stop raising Fed Funds rates early next year. A hiatus would allow them time to see if the moves have had an impact and give members a chance to see if further moves are prudent. The Fed always runs the risk of overreacting and going too far when tightening; this “oversteering” by previous Feds has occurred a high percentage of the time as they contend with a lag between monetary policy shifts and economic reaction.  

Where We Are, Where We’re Going

In the most aggressive pace since early 1980, so far in 2022, the Fed raised its benchmark federal-funds rate by 0.75 points at each of its past three meetings. The most recent move was in late September. This left the overnight interest rate at a range between 3% and 3.25%.

The stock market wants the Fed to slow down. It rallied in July and August on expectations that the Fed might slow the pace of increase. Slowing, at least at the time, would have conflicted with the central bank’s inflation target because easy financial conditions stimulate spending, economic growth, and related inflation pressures. This rally in stocks may have prompted Powell to redraft a very public speech to economists in late August. He spoke about nothing else for eight minutes at Jackson Hole except for his resolve to win the fight against higher prices.

But sentiment related to how forceful the FOMC now needs to be may be shifting. Fed Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard, joined by other officials, have recently hinted they are uneasy with raising rates by 0.75 points beyond next month’s meeting. In a speech on Oct. 10th, Brainard laid out a case for pausing rate rises, noting how they impact the economy over time.

Others that are concerned about the danger of raising rates too high include Chicago Fed President Charles Evans. Evans told reporters on Oct. 10th that he was worried about assumptions that the Fed could just cut rates if it decided they were too high. He felt a need to share his thought that promptly lowering rates is always easier in theory than in practice. The Chicago Fed President said he would prefer to find a rate level that restricted economic growth enough to lower inflation and hold it there even if the Fed faced “a few not-so-great reports” on inflation. “I worry that if the way you judge it is, ‘Oh, another bad inflation report—it must be that we need more [rate hikes],’… that puts us at somewhat greater risk of responding overly aggressive,” Evans said.

Kansas City Fed President Esther George also had something to say on this topic last week. She said she favored moving “steadier and slower” on rate increases. “A series of very super-sized rate increases might cause you to oversteer and not be able to see those turning points,” according to the Kansas City Fed President.

Others like Fed governor Waller don’t view steady 0.75% increases as a done deal but instead something to be reviewed, “We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Waller said in a speech earlier this month.

The caution surrounding oversteering isn’t unanimous; at least one Fed official wants to see proof that inflation is falling before easing up on the economic brake pedal. “Given our frankly disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation, I expect we will be well above 4% by the end of the year,” said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.

The ultimate result is likely to come down to what Mr. Powell decides as he seeks to fashion a consensus. In the past, votes, while not always unanimous, tend to defer to the Chairperson at the time.

Take-Away

If, after the next FOMC meeting, the Fed is entertaining a lower 0.50% rate rise in December (not 0.75%), they will prepare the markets (bond, stock, and foreign exchange) for the decision in the moments and weeks following their Nov. 1-2 meeting. If this occurs, it could cause stocks to perform well just before election day and perhaps make up some lost ground in the year’s final two months.  

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20221006a.htm

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-set-to-raise-rates-by-0-75-point-and-debate-size-of-future-hikes-11666356757?mod=hp_lead_pos1

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/federal-reserve-system-philadelphia.htm

September’s FOMC Meeting and Powell’s Unflinching Resolve

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: Federal Reserve (Flickr)

The FOMC Votes to Raise Rates for Fourth Time

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise overnight interest rates from a target of 2.25%-2.50% to the new level of 3.00% – 3.25% at the conclusion of its September 2022 meeting. The monetary policy shift in bank lending rates was as expected by economists, although many have urged the Fed to be more dovish, others suggest the central bank is behind and should move more quickly. The early reaction from the U.S. Treasury 10-year note ( a benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates) is downward slightly, while the S&P sold off 26 points and the Russell 2000 remained unfazed. Equities later sold off as the Chairman held a press conference.

The statement accompanying the policy shift also included a discussion on U.S. economic growth continuing to remain positive. The FOMC statement said recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains were also seen as strong in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains low.

However, the statement points out that inflation remains elevated. The Fed believes this reflects supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is causing tremendous human and economic hardship, according to the Fed. The statement indicated the inflation risks related to the is an area they are paying attention to.

Source: FOMC Statement (September 21, 2022)

The Federal Reserve made clear it was continually assessing the appropriate actions related to monetary policy and the implications of incoming information on the economic outlook. The Committee says it is prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede reaching the Committee’s goals. This is to include a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments, according to the statement.

Source: Federal Reserve Board and Federal Open Market Committee release economic projections from the September 20-21 FOMC meeting

Each member of the Federal Open Market Provides forward-looking assumptions on expected growth, employment, inflation, and individual projections of future interest rate policy. The table above indicates the range of expectations.

Take-Away

Higher interest rates can weigh on stocks as companies that rely on borrowing may find their cost of capital has increased. The risk of inflation also weighs on the markets. Additionally, investors find that alternative investments that pay a known yield may, at some point, be preferred to equities. For these reasons, higher interest rates are of concern to the stock market investor. However, an unhealthy, highly inflationary economy also comes at a cost to the economy, businesses, and households.

The next FOMC meeting is also a two-day meeting that takes place July 26-27. If the pace of employment and overall economic activity is little changed, the Federal Reserve is expected to again raise interest rates.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases.htm

The Markets Still Don’t Understand How the Current Tightening Cycle is Different

Posted on by cpatches
Source: Federal Reserve (Flickr)

The Hows and Whys of a Tightening Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve (the Fed) will be holding a two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting next week that ends on September 21. After the FOMC meeting, it is the current practice for the Fed to announce what the target Fed Funds range will be. That is, make the public aware of what overnight bank loan rate the Federal Reserve will work to maintain through open market operations.

Open market operations is the Federal Reserve buying and selling securities on the open market. The purchases are restricted to debt or debt-backed securities so that interest rates are impacted. It’s through controlling interest rates that the Fed works to maintain a sound banking system, keep inflation under control, and help maximize employment. Purchasing securities through its account puts money into the economy, which lowers rates and helps stimulate economic activity. Selling securities takes cash out of circulation. This tightens money’s availability and can also be accomplished by letting the financial instrument mature and then not replacing them with an equal purchase.

Quantitative Easing

If the Federal Reserve hadn’t put money into the economy, they’d have nothing to sell or allow to mature (roll-off). With this in mind, the natural position of the Federal Reserve Bank is stimulative.

Currently, the Fed owns about a third of the U.S.Treasury and mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that have been issued and are still outstanding. Much of these holdings are a result of its emergency asset-buying to prop up the U.S. economy during the Covid-19 efforts.

Two years of quantitative easing (QE) doubled the central bank’s holdings to $9 trillion. This amount approximates 40% of all the goods and services produced in the U.S. in a year (GDP). By putting so much money in the economy, the cost of the money went down (interest rates), and the excess money, without much of an increase in how many stocks, bonds, or houses there are, made it easier for people to bid prices up for investible assets. For non-investments, the combination of easy money while lockdowns slowed production became a recipe for inflation.

Inflation

Inflation is now a concern for the average household. The Fed, which is supposed to keep inflation slow and steady, needs to act, so they are changing the current mix. It is making these changes by taking out a key inflation ingredient, easy money. This same easy money has been a contributor to the ever-increasing market prices for stocks, bonds, and real estate.

The overnight lending rate the Fed is likely to alter next week is the policy that will create headlines. These headlines may cause kneejerk market reactions that are often short-lived. It is the extra trillions being methodically removed from the economy that will have a longer-term impact on markets. These don’t have much impact on overnight rates, their maturities average much longer, so they impact longer rates, and of course spendable and investible cash in circulation.

Quantitative Tightening

The central bank has only just started to shrink its holdings by letting no more than $30 billion of Treasuries and $17.5 billion of MBS, roll off (cash removed from circulation). They did this in July and again in August. The Fed then has plans to double the amount rolling off this month (most Treasuries mature on the 15th  and month-end).

This pace is more aggressive than last time the Fed experimented with shrinking its balance sheet.

Will this lower the value of stocks, crash the economy, and make our homes worth the same as 2019? A lot depends on market expectations, which the Fed also helps control. If the markets, which knows the money that was quickly put in over two years, is now coming back out at a measured pace, and trusts the Fed to not hit the brake pedal too hard, the means exist to succeed without being overly disruptive. If instead the forward-looking stock market believes it sees disaster, an outcome that feels like a disaster increases in likelihood. For bonds, if the Fed does it correctly, rates will rise, which makes bonds cheaper. You’d rather not hold a bond that has gotten cheaper for the same reason that you don’t want to hold a stock that has gotten cheaper. However, buying a cheaper bond means you earn a higher interest rate. This is attractive to conservative investors but also serves as an improved alternative for those deciding to invest in stocks or bonds.

Houses are regional, don’t trade on an exchange and unlike securities, are each unique. They are often purchased with a long-term mortgage. Higher interest rates increase payment costs on the same amount of principal. In order to keep those payments affordable, home purchasers may demand a lower price, thereby causing real estate values to decline.

Take Away

The Fed has told us to expect tightening. They were honest when they promised to ease more than two years ago; there is no reason not to plan for higher rates and tighter money. The overnight rate increases get most of the attention. Further, out on the yield curve, the way quantitative tightening plays out depends on trust in the Fed and a lot of currently unknowns.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/

What Powell is Doing About this Vexing Inflation Contributor

Posted on by cpatches
Image Credit: IMF (Flickr)

Fed Chairman Powell Shows His Steady Hand and Firm Conviction at Monetary Conference

In what is his last scheduled public appearance before the post-FOMC statement expected on Sept. 21, Fed Chairman Powell did not say anything that would change expectations of another 75bp Fed Funds rate hike. He instead emphasized the Fed’s commitment to reduce inflation and believes it can be done and at the same time avoid “very high social costs.” 

“It is very much our view, and my view, that we need to act now forthrightly, strongly, as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done,”  Powell said Thursday (Sept. 8) at the 40th annual Monetary Conference held virtually by the Cato Institute.

The discussion was held after it was known that the Eurozone Central Bank had just raised rates by 75bp. Powell’s talk and the interest rate hike overseas didn’t upset U.S. markets as U.S. Jobless claims had been reported earlier and showed a very strong labor market which helped demonstrate that the Fed’s actions to return inflation to a more acceptable level are not severely hurting business.

The Federal Reserve Chairman continued to reiterate what he has been saying, that the U.S. central bank is focused on bringing down high inflation to prevent it from becoming entrenched as it did in the 1970s. The core theme, most recently heard at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, is that he is resolved to return inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.

Mr. Powell said it is critical to prevent households and businesses from ongoing expectations that inflation will rise. He said this is a key lesson taken from the persistent inflation of the 1970s. “The public had really come to think of higher inflation as the norm and to expect it to continue, and that’s what made it so hard to get inflation down in that case,” Powell said. The takeaway for policymakers, he added, is that “the longer inflation remains well above target, the greater the risk the public does begin to see higher inflation as the norm, and that has the capacity to really raise the costs of getting inflation down.”

Speaking the day before at the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy at The Clearing House and Bank Policy Institute Annual Conference, Fed Vice Chairwoman Lael Brainard, didn’t express a preference on the size of the next increase but underscored the need for rates to rise and stay at levels that would slow economic activity. “We are in this for as long as it takes to get inflation down,” she said.

Fed officials have raised rates this year at the most rapid pace since the early 1980s. The federal funds rate, the percentage banks charge each other for overnight borrowing, rose from near zero in March to a range between 2.25% and 2.5% in July, which is where it sits today.

Take Away

The Fed’s two mandates are to keep inflation at bay and to make sure there are adequate jobs in the U.S. The lessons of the past indicate that expectations of inflation are inflationary themselves. The Fed Chairman and Fed Vice Chairwoman would undermine their goals if they did not talk tough on inflation. With the economy not having sunk into a deep recession, and joblessness at acceptable levels, their actions are likely to match their tough talk.

The stock market typically behaves well when confident that the Fed is fighting inflation and has a steady grasp of what too far is. Overly tight money would dampen business growth.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

https://www.cato.org/events/40th-annual-monetary-conference

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/08/business/ecb-meeting-inflation-interest-rates

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-weekly-jobless-claims-fall-three-month-low-2022-09-08/