Snail (SNAL) – Patiently Waiting for the ARK


Monday, May 20, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $14.1 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $1.9 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $24.0 million and $2.8 million, respectively. Notably, the company deferred $5.5 million of revenue in the quarter, which contributed to the shortfall. We expect revenue deferrals and the technology gap to cause some noise in operating results during 2024.

Technology gap. Importantly, we believe there is a technology gap between ASA and some of the user base’s PC equipment, which dampened sales of the game. We believe the closing of the technology gap could also lead to a more steady sales profile of the game over a longer period of time as users upgrade their hardware and migrate to ASA.


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Snail (SNAL) – Revenue Deferrals Causes Noisy Results


Thursday, May 16, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $14.1 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $1.9 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $24.0 million and $2.8 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Results. Importantly, the company deferred $5.5 million of revenue in the quarter, which contributed to the results falling short of expectations. We expect revenue deferrals to be the cause of some noise in operating results during 2024, as the company prepares for the launch of ARK 2.

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across five DLCS that are included in the sale of the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025. Importantly, a portion of the revenue from the sale of ASA are being deferred, but not all of the associated costs are being deferred.


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Snail (SNAL) – Nearing The Berth Of Ark


Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noisy Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $28.6 million, below our estimate of $31.6 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was $3.6 million, substantially lower than our estimate of $12.4 million. The results were driven by higher than expected deferred revenue and engine fees. Notably, deferred revenue will be recognized as DLC packages included in the sale of ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) are released.

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across the five DLCS that are included in the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025. Simply put, revenues are being deferred, but not all of the associated costs are being deferred. 


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Snail (SNAL) – Media Strategy Potentially Reaches New Audiences


Friday, March 22, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers animated series.  The company’s highly anticipated series, ARK: The Animated Series, which stars Academy Award winning actors Michelle Yeoh and Russell Crowe, is now available on Paramount+. We believe the series can leverage Paramount’s 67.5 million subscribers to reach new audiences and potentially convert new viewers to ARK players. We view the release of ARK: The Animated Series as a significant step in the company’s crossover media strategy. 


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Snail (SNAL) – Quarterly Preview


Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Tweaking Q4 estimates. We are lowering our Q4 revenue forecast from $38 million to $31.6 million, reflecting deferred revenue that will be recognized in 2024. Despite the deferred revenue, we are conservatively maintaining our 2024 revenue forecast.

Engaged userbase. The company held the ARKade Ambassador program, an influencer initiative, from October 25 through year end. The initiative coincided with the release of Ark: Survival Ascended on Steam and drove significant viewer engagement. In total, the ARKade content received viewership of 186,509,155 minutes. 


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Snail (SNAL) – Highlights From Noblecon19


Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19. On December 4th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Jim Tsai, CEO, and Heidy Chow, CFO, highlighted the success of the recently released Ark: Survival Ascended title and provided notable updates on the product release roadmap heading into 2024.  

Strong release. Ark: Survival Ascended is a remastered version of the Ark game with all previously released DLC packages. In the first 30 days following the release of Ark: Survival Ascended, 700 thousand units were sold on Steam and it was the best seller the weekend of the launch.


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Snail Inc. (SNAL) – A Positive Flip Side To The ARK Delay?


Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $9.0 million, exceeding our forecast of $5.8 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of $5.1 million, in line with our forecast.

Impressive launch. In October, the company launched ARK: Survival Ascended, which was the #1 selling game on the PC gaming platform, Steam, on launch day. Management noted that, so far, the game is performing 60% better than expectations, in terms of units sold.


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Snail Inc. (SNAL) – Expecting A Rise With The Tide With Ark


Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $9.9 million and adj. EBITDA of a loss of $4.7 million, both of which were below our forecast. We anticipated $22.5 million in revenue and positive adj. EBITDA of $4.0 million. In our view, the miss was largely a result of the timing of the company’s releases.

Looking ahead to Q4. Despite the negative adj. EBITDA in the quarter, the company remains on track to release ARK: Survival Ascended in October of this year. Survival Ascended is a re-release of the company’s flagship game with several updates, powered by Unreal Engine 5. The company is also slated to re-release all 5 ARK DLCs using Unreal Engine 5, subsequent to the release of ARK: Survival Ascended.


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Snail Inc. (SNAL) – A Bridge Toward Profitability


Wednesday, August 02, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Multi-year server hosting agreement. The company disclosed a new agreement with Marbis GmbH, owner of Nitrado servers. As part of the agreement, Marbis will become the exclusive server provider for Snail’s ARK games for 7 years. In return, Marbis will make a $4.05 million interest-free loan commitment to Snail, which will serve as a bridge loan as the company builds toward positive cash flow generation. 

Favorable terms. As part of the agreement, Snail will be required to repay the loan with a 20% share of all monthly gross revenue from the release of its upcoming title, ARK: Survival Ascended, until the loan balance has been repaid in full. We expect any outstanding balance to be repaid very quickly upon the game’s release in Q4.


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Engine Gaming and Media (GAME) – Shores Up Its Game


Friday, April 14, 2023

Engine Gaming and Media, Inc. (NASDAQ:GAME) (TSX-V:GAME) provides premium social sports and esports gaming experiences, as well as unparalleled data analytics, marketing, advertising, and intellectual property to support its owned and operated direct-to-consumer properties, while also providing these services to enable its clients and partners. The company’s subsidiaries include Stream Hatchet, the global leader in gaming video distribution analytics; Sideqik, a social influencer marketing discovery, analytics, and activation platform; WinView Games, a social predictive play-along gaming platform for viewers to play while watching live events; and Frankly Media, a digital publishing platform used to create, distribute and monetize content across all digital channels. Engine Media generates revenue through a combination of direct-to-consumer fees, streaming technology and data SaaS-based offerings, and programmatic advertising. For more information, please visit www.enginegaming.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research – Digital, Media & Technology Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Business arrangement complete. The company closed the previously announced business arrangement with GameSquare Esports. As part of the deal, GAME shares underwent a 1-4 reverse split and all of GameSquare Esports’ shares (GSQ) were exchanged for Game shares at a 1-for-0.02 ratio. The combined company is known as GameSquare Holdings and trades on the NASDAQ and TSX under “GAME.”

Source of additional funding. Prior to the transaction, the company offered subscription receipts for $1.25 per receipt, which fetched total gross proceeds of $9.6 million. The receipts were consolidated at 1-4 ratio, in line with the reverse stock split and converted to common “GAME” shares. The total shares outstanding post transaction are 12.9 million. We view the receipts as an important aspect of the transaction, as it shores up additional funding.   


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Snail Inc. (SNAL) – Initiating Coverage: Perseverance To The Ark


Thursday, April 13, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research – Digital, Media & Technology Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and $9 target. Snail is a game developer and publisher, which boasts a portfolio of games that have demonstrated sustained popularity among gaming enthusiasts. Moreover, the company has a broad range of opportunities to grow revenue through additional games, expansion packs, and alternative ways to use its IP.  

Expanding market opportunity. The total global video game market in terms of revenue was $193 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at 4% CAGR, from 2021-2025. We believe that Snail should grow faster than the industry over the next few years as it launches new products.


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Motorsport Games (MSGM) – Pushes Out IndyCar Launch


Monday, March 27, 2023

Motorsport Games, a Motorsport Network company, combines innovative and engaging video games with exciting esports competitions and content for racing fans and gamers around the globe. The Company is the officially licensed video game developer and publisher for iconic motorsport racing series across PC, PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo Switch and mobile, including NASCAR, INDYCAR, 24 Hours of Le Mans and the British Touring Car Championship (“BTCC”). Motorsport Games is an award-winning esports partner of choice for 24 Hours of Le Mans, Formula E, BTCC, the FIA World Rallycross Championship and the eNASCAR Heat Pro League, among others.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results The company reported revenue of $3.8 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $3.5 million in the quarter, roughly in line with our estimates. The quarter was driven by the successful release of NASCAR Rivals on the Nintendo Switch and reduced compensation expenses. The company made an investment in its user base by releasing a free DLC expansion pack for NASCAR 21: Ignition.

2023 outlook. The company announced the highly anticipated launch of its IndyCar game will be delayed until 2024. Management attributed the delay to an increased focus on quality, given that an Indy game has not been released in over a decade. As such, we are lowering our estimates in anticipation of adverse effects on revenue in 2023.


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Motorsport Games (MSGM) – Stock Soars On Debt For Equity Swap


Wednesday, February 01, 2023

Motorsport Games, a Motorsport Network company, combines innovative and engaging video games with exciting esports competitions and content for racing fans and gamers around the globe. The Company is the officially licensed video game developer and publisher for iconic motorsport racing series across PC, PlayStation, Xbox, Nintendo Switch and mobile, including NASCAR, INDYCAR, 24 Hours of Le Mans and the British Touring Car Championship (“BTCC”). Motorsport Games is an award-winning esports partner of choice for 24 Hours of Le Mans, Formula E, BTCC, the FIA World Rallycross Championship and the eNASCAR Heat Pro League, among others.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Debt for equity swap. The company announced that it entered into an agreement with its majority shareholder, Motorsport Network, to repay $1 million in debt for 338,983 MSGM shares. The move significantly improves the company’s liquidity and reduces its interest expense. Notably, the move adds confidence that Motorsport Network has confidence in Motorsport Games.

Regains compliance with listing rules. Following the move, the company received notice from Nasdaq that Motorsport  regained full compliance with the Nasdaq Listing Rules.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.