GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Shedding Its SPAC Image


Wednesday, August 28, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reverse split. On August 21, the company announced a one for ten reverse stock split on its ordinary shares. Notably, the reverse split will be effective following the market close on August 28, and will be adjusted for the split when trading opens on August 29. We view the move favorably as the company sheds its SPAC image.

Positive implications. Management highlighted that the reverse split could improve the marketability and attractiveness of its shares, as an investment grade company that it is. We believe the higher share price could improve investor perception, liquidity and marketability of the GDEV shares and open the company to more institutional interest, with the shares trading above single digit price points. 


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Snail (SNAL) – Looking Beyond The Noise


Thursday, August 15, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $21.6 million, and adj. EBITDA of $3.1 million, both of which were lower than our forecasts of $27.8 million and $7.4 million, respectively. In our view, there were multiple factors contributing to the shortfall, such as deferred revenue in the quarter, as well as lower than expected revenue from ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) on Microsoft Game Pass.

Deferred revenue. Notably, deferred revenue is largely related to the five DLC packages included in the sale of ASA, of which four have not been released yet. Furthermore, as DLC packages included in ASA are released, the company will defer less revenue from future ASA sales. In our view, reducing deferred revenue will provide investors with a clearer picture of company operating results.


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Release – Snail, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2024 Financial Results

Research News and Market Data on SNAL

CULVER CITY, Calif., Aug. 13, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Snail, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNAL) (“Snail” or “the Company”), a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment, today announced financial results for its second quarter ended June 30, 2024.

Tony Tian, Co-Chief Executive Officer commented, “I’m honored to lead Snail alongside an amazing team as we continue to build upon the company’s incredible legacy of innovation and creativity. Our unwavering passion for delivering exceptional gaming experiences, as showcased by the phenomenal launch of ARK: Survival Ascended, will continue to propel Snail to future successes and victories. Looking ahead, we are excited to expand the reach of our premium mods and introduce new content that will delight our growing community of players worldwide.”

Second Quarter 2024 Highlights:

  • ARK: Survival Ascended and ARK: Survival Evolved
    • On October 25, 2023, the Company launched its flagship remake of the ARK franchise leveraging Unreal Engine 5’s stunning graphics and introduced a game-altering cross-platform modding system, ushering in a new era of creativity.
    • In the three and six months ended June 30, 2024, ARK: Survival Evolved and ARK: Survival Ascended combined for an average total of 218,241 and 213,690 daily active users (“DAUs”) on the Steam and Epic platforms, respectively, as compared to 240,522 and 258,235 in the three and six months ended June 30, 2023, respectively.
    • Through June 30, 2024, our ARK franchise game has been played for 3.7 billion hours with an average playing time per user of 161 hours and with the top 21.1% of all players spending over 100 hours in the game, according to data from the Steam platform.
    • Since its launch, ARK: Survival Ascended sold approximately 2.5 million units and has an average of 108,515 daily active users (“DAUs”) with a peak of 307,875 DAUs.
    • ARK: Survival Evolved averaged a total of approximately 131,927 DAUs and sold approximately 0.5 million units in the second quarter of 2024.
    • In the second quarter of 2024, the Company successfully launched Bellwright, a medieval survival game, Bob’s Tall Tales DLC for ARK: Survival Ascended and the Power Rangers premium mod for ARK: Survival Ascended . Furthermore, a full-size DLC expansion, Scorched Earth, was made available to all ARK: Survival Ascended owners.

Net revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2024 was $21.6 million compared to $9.9 million in the three months ended June 30, 2023. The increase in net revenue was due to an increase in total Ark sales of $10.0 million, an increase in sales of the Company’s other games of $3.9 million driven by the release of Bellwright, partially offset by a decrease in Ark Mobile sales of $0.3 million and an increase in deferred revenue of $1.9 million related to the Ark franchise.

Net income for the three months ended June 30, 2024 was $2.3 million compared to a net loss of $4.1 million for the three months ended June 30, 2023. The improvement in net income is due to an increase in net revenue of $11.7 million, decreased general and administrative expenses of $1.2 million, and an increase in total other income (expense) of $0.5 million, partially offset by increased research and development expenses of $0.7 million, increased advertising and marketing expenses of $0.5 million, increased costs of revenue of $4.2 million and a decrease in benefit from income taxes of $1.7 million.

Bookings for the three months ended June 30, 2024 was $22.9 million as compared to $9.3 million for the three months ended June 30, 2023, the increase was primarily due to the release of ARK: Survival Ascended in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the release of Bobs Tall Tales and Bellwright along with the ARK: Survival Ascended DLC, Scorched Earth in April 2024. In addition to increased net sales of the aforementioned titles, the Company deferred approximately $7.1 million in revenue during the three months ended June 30, 2024 for the ARK: Survival Ascended DLC’s and parts of Bobs Tall Tales which have not yet released; partially offset by the recognition of $5.6 million for the release of Scorched Earth.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”) for the three months ended June 30, 2024 was $3.1 million compared to a loss of $4.8 million in the prior year period. The increase was due to the improvement in net income of $6.4 million and a decrease in the benefit from income taxes of $1.7 million.

As of June 30, 2024, unrestricted cash was $15.5 million.

Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures

In addition to the financial results determined in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, Snail believes Bookings and EBITDA, as non-GAAP measures, are useful in evaluating its operating performance. Bookings and EBITDA are non-GAAP financial measures that are presented as supplemental disclosures and should not be construed as alternatives to net income (loss) or revenue as indicators of operating performance, nor as alternatives to cash flow provided by operating activities as measures of liquidity, both as determined in accordance with GAAP. Snail supplementally presents Bookings and EBITDA because they are key operating measures used by management to assess financial performance. Bookings adjusts for the impact of deferrals and, Snail believes, provides a useful indicator of sales in a given period. EBITDA adjusts for items that Snail believes do not reflect the ongoing operating performance of its business, such as certain non-cash items, unusual or infrequent items or items that change from period to period without any material relevance to its operating performance. Management believes Bookings and EBITDA are useful to investors and analysts in highlighting trends in Snail’s operating performance, while other measures can differ significantly depending on long-term strategic decisions regarding capital structure, the tax jurisdictions in which Snail operates and capital investments.

Bookings is defined as the net amount of products and services sold digitally or physically in the period. Bookings is equal to revenue, excluding the impact from deferrals. Below is a reconciliation of total net revenue to Bookings, the closest GAAP financial measure.

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Snail (SNAL) – First Look At Q2 Results


Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $21.6 million, and adj. EBITDA of $3.1 million, both of which were lower than our forecasts of $27.8 million and $7.4 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q2 Results. In our view, there were multiple factors contributing to the shortfall, such as deferred revenue in the quarter, as well as lower than expected revenue from ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) on Microsoft Game Pass.

Closing the gap. Notably, there is a technology gap between many potential ASA users’ PC hardware and the advanced processing power needed for the game, which uses Unreal Engine 5. This technology disparity has inhibited some users from migrating from the original game, ARK: Survival Evolved (ASE), to ASA, dampening ASA sales. However, an update to Unreal Engine 5 that is expected to take place in Q3. Should the update help bridge the technology gap, it could catalyze accelerated adaption of ASA. 


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GDEV Inc. (GDEV) – Why An Upswing In Bookings Matters


Monday, August 12, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Initiating coverage with an Outperform rating. We are initiating coverage of GDEV, a global gaming company, with an Outperform rating and a $6 price target. Our favorable rating is based on an improved fundamental outlook and compelling stock valuation. After a post pandemic revenue slump as gaming activity returned to more normalized levels, the company now appears to be turning a corner towards revenue growth again. In our view, the story of GDEV’s improving fundamentals is under the radar, representing an opportunity for investors. 

A leading player in the attractive gaming industry. GDEV is the largest independent, publicly traded gaming company that is profitable, generates cash flow, and has a solid balance sheet. The company’s revenues are diverse geographically, by platform, and by titles. 


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Snail (SNAL) – Patiently Waiting for the ARK


Monday, May 20, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $14.1 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $1.9 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $24.0 million and $2.8 million, respectively. Notably, the company deferred $5.5 million of revenue in the quarter, which contributed to the shortfall. We expect revenue deferrals and the technology gap to cause some noise in operating results during 2024.

Technology gap. Importantly, we believe there is a technology gap between ASA and some of the user base’s PC equipment, which dampened sales of the game. We believe the closing of the technology gap could also lead to a more steady sales profile of the game over a longer period of time as users upgrade their hardware and migrate to ASA.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail (SNAL) – Revenue Deferrals Causes Noisy Results


Thursday, May 16, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $14.1 million, and adj. EBITDA loss of $1.9 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $24.0 million and $2.8 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Results. Importantly, the company deferred $5.5 million of revenue in the quarter, which contributed to the results falling short of expectations. We expect revenue deferrals to be the cause of some noise in operating results during 2024, as the company prepares for the launch of ARK 2.

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across five DLCS that are included in the sale of the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025. Importantly, a portion of the revenue from the sale of ASA are being deferred, but not all of the associated costs are being deferred.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail (SNAL) – Nearing The Berth Of Ark


Wednesday, April 03, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noisy Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $28.6 million, below our estimate of $31.6 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was $3.6 million, substantially lower than our estimate of $12.4 million. The results were driven by higher than expected deferred revenue and engine fees. Notably, deferred revenue will be recognized as DLC packages included in the sale of ARK: Survival Ascended (ASA) are released.

Deferred revenue recognition. The deferred ASA revenue will be split evenly across the five DLCS that are included in the game and recognized as the DLCs are released. Three of the DLCs included in ASA will be released in 2024 (Q2, Q3, Q4) with the remaining two expected in 2025. Simply put, revenues are being deferred, but not all of the associated costs are being deferred. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail (SNAL) – Media Strategy Potentially Reaches New Audiences


Friday, March 22, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Delivers animated series.  The company’s highly anticipated series, ARK: The Animated Series, which stars Academy Award winning actors Michelle Yeoh and Russell Crowe, is now available on Paramount+. We believe the series can leverage Paramount’s 67.5 million subscribers to reach new audiences and potentially convert new viewers to ARK players. We view the release of ARK: The Animated Series as a significant step in the company’s crossover media strategy. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail (SNAL) – Quarterly Preview


Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Tweaking Q4 estimates. We are lowering our Q4 revenue forecast from $38 million to $31.6 million, reflecting deferred revenue that will be recognized in 2024. Despite the deferred revenue, we are conservatively maintaining our 2024 revenue forecast.

Engaged userbase. The company held the ARKade Ambassador program, an influencer initiative, from October 25 through year end. The initiative coincided with the release of Ark: Survival Ascended on Steam and drove significant viewer engagement. In total, the ARKade content received viewership of 186,509,155 minutes. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail (SNAL) – Highlights From Noblecon19


Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noblecon19. On December 4th, management presented at Noblecon19 at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, to the investment community. The presentation conducted by Jim Tsai, CEO, and Heidy Chow, CFO, highlighted the success of the recently released Ark: Survival Ascended title and provided notable updates on the product release roadmap heading into 2024.  

Strong release. Ark: Survival Ascended is a remastered version of the Ark game with all previously released DLC packages. In the first 30 days following the release of Ark: Survival Ascended, 700 thousand units were sold on Steam and it was the best seller the weekend of the launch.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Snail Inc. (SNAL) – A Positive Flip Side To The ARK Delay?


Wednesday, November 15, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $9.0 million, exceeding our forecast of $5.8 million. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was a loss of $5.1 million, in line with our forecast.

Impressive launch. In October, the company launched ARK: Survival Ascended, which was the #1 selling game on the PC gaming platform, Steam, on launch day. Management noted that, so far, the game is performing 60% better than expectations, in terms of units sold.


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Snail Inc. (SNAL) – Expecting A Rise With The Tide With Ark


Tuesday, August 15, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q2 results. The company reported Q2 revenue of $9.9 million and adj. EBITDA of a loss of $4.7 million, both of which were below our forecast. We anticipated $22.5 million in revenue and positive adj. EBITDA of $4.0 million. In our view, the miss was largely a result of the timing of the company’s releases.

Looking ahead to Q4. Despite the negative adj. EBITDA in the quarter, the company remains on track to release ARK: Survival Ascended in October of this year. Survival Ascended is a re-release of the company’s flagship game with several updates, powered by Unreal Engine 5. The company is also slated to re-release all 5 ARK DLCs using Unreal Engine 5, subsequent to the release of ARK: Survival Ascended.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.