Tag: China

China’s E-commerce Giants Surge After Stimulus Package Boost

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo stocks soar after China announces new monetary stimulus measures.
– The People’s Bank of China released $140 billion in liquidity by cutting interest rates and reserve requirements.
– Skepticism remains over whether these measures will lead to long-term economic recovery.

China’s major e-commerce players—Alibaba, JD.com, and Pinduoduo—saw a significant stock surge on Tuesday after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled its first major stimulus package since the pandemic. The central bank’s efforts aim to inject liquidity into the economy and spark growth amid ongoing challenges in the property market and reduced consumer demand.

Shares of Alibaba rose by 7%, while JD.com jumped 11%, and Pinduoduo saw an increase of nearly 10%. This sharp rise followed the PBOC’s announcement of key interest rate cuts and a reduction in reserve requirements for banks. These measures are expected to free up around 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) in liquidity, making it easier for businesses and households to access loans at lower interest rates.

The stimulus comes at a critical time for China’s economy, which has been grappling with a cooling property market and weaker-than-expected demand in recent months. The government’s regulatory crackdown on tech companies over the last few years further compounded the struggles of companies like Alibaba and JD.com. At the height of this crackdown, Alibaba was slapped with a $2.6 billion fine for antitrust violations. Despite some recovery in 2024, these companies remain far from their 2020 stock price highs.

The tech sector, which includes major firms such as Baidu, Tencent, and NetEase, saw a broad rally following the announcement. The CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Hang Seng indexes all rose over 4%, reflecting optimism among investors about the new economic measures.

While the stock market responded favorably, some experts remain cautious about the long-term impact of China’s stimulus efforts. Charles Schwab’s chief global investment strategist, Jeffrey Kleintop, expressed doubts that these moves will be enough to stabilize China’s property market or significantly improve household incomes. “A lower mortgage rate on existing loans might help households, but it doesn’t do anything to arrest the decline in property prices or aggregate incomes or jobs,” said Kleintop. Wolfe Research chief economist Stephanie Roth echoed these sentiments, noting that similar announcements in the past have generated excitement but did not produce sustained economic improvements.

The stakes are high for China’s economy, which has long been seen as a key driver of global growth. As the world’s second-largest economy, a slowdown in China could have ripple effects across international markets. Investors are keenly watching whether these new stimulus measures will generate enough momentum to help China regain its footing and whether companies like Alibaba and JD.com can continue to capitalize on a more favorable economic environment.

Despite the skepticism, the stock surge offers a brief respite for Chinese e-commerce firms, which have faced intense pressure over the last few years. While these gains are encouraging, the question remains whether this upward trajectory will last or if more comprehensive measures will be needed to keep China’s economic recovery on track.

Yellen Feels Cautiously Optimistic About U.S. Prospects

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Las Vegas, Nevada, US, on Monday, Aug. 14, 2023.

China’s Economic slowdown is a “Risk Factor” for US, Says Treasury Secretary Yellen

A month after returning from her visit to China, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen opened up about the interplay between the two countries’ economies, the risks the Chinese slowdown has on the U.S., and a side trip she took courtesy of ingesting magic mushrooms. Addressing growing concerns over the economic downturn in the world’s second-largest economy, and possible spillover effects to the U.S., the Treasurer was optimistic about her country’s path.  

China and U.S.

Amidst the growing concerns surrounding China’s economic prospects, including a 5% devaluation of the yuan, and across-the-board weakening economic indicators, China now has the worst-performing currency in Asia after the yen.

Treasury Secretary Yellen, speaking in Las Vegas, seemed to be undoing some of the recent strong talk from U.S. President Biden at a fundraiser on August 11. Biden referred to China’s economic issues as a “ticking time bomb” and referred to Communist Party leaders as “bad folks.” The U.S. President expressed concerns about China’s slowed growth and elevated unemployment rate. She was speaking at  a press conference following a speech in Las Vegas. Yellen referred to China’s economic woes as a “risk factor” for the US, a risk that she believes won’t significantly undermine the overall prospects of the American economy.

As Yellen touted the economic policy achievements of the Biden administration, she highlighted the resilient state of the US economy.

Risks to U.S.

In classic economist style, Yellen hedged her “low risk” comments by suggesting there is a possibility that while China’s slowdown will primarily impact its neighboring Asian nations, there will inevitably be some repercussions for the United States.

Yellen strongly emphasized uncertainty, “That said, I feel very good about US prospects overall. Let’s call that a risk, she said, signalling her measured optimism amidst the uncertainties linked to China’s economic trajectory. Yellen underscored the unexpectedly robust state of the U.S. labor market despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking campaign – one of the most vigorous tightening efforts in decades.

Janet Yellen spoke on CNN about her meal in China

Psychedelic Side Trip?

While in Beijing, Yellen made a bit of a stir both in China and in her home country for having been seen easting a psychedelic mushroom-based dish called Jian shou qing, or “see hand blue”, a fungi dish known for being hallucinogenic.

Yellen spoke about her experiences on CNN. She recognized the humor of the episode but said that the cooked food had no side effects.

Take Away

The U.S. economy is likely to be impacted by trade with the world’s second-largest economy. According to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, weakness in China will be somewhat contagious. She remains cautious but optimistic that the robust state of growth and employment in the U.S will serve to minimize negative effects.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek