Category: Retail and Consumer

Release – Xcel Brands Announces Reverse Stock Split

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on XELB

March 21, 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT

PDF Version 1-for-10 reverse stock split to become effective as of the opening of trading on March 25, 2025

NEW YORK, March 21, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Xcel Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: XELB) (“Xcel Brands” or the “Company”), a media and consumer products company with significant expertise in livestream shopping and social commerce, today announced that it will effect a 1-for-10 reverse stock split (the “Reverse Stock Split”) of its issued and outstanding common stock par value $0.001 per share (the “Common Stock”), effective with the opening of trading on March 25, 2025.

Xcel Brands’ Common Stock will continue to trade on the Nasdaq Capital Market (“Nasdaq”) under the symbol “XELB”. The new CUSIP number for the Common Stock following the Reverse Stock Split will be 98400M200.

The material effects of the Reverse Stock Split are for every ten shares (the “Reverse Stock Split Number”) of Xcel Brands’ issued and outstanding Common Stock have been combined into one (1) share of Common Stock. The ownership percentage of each Xcel Brands stockholder will remain unchanged, other than as a result of fractional shares. No fractional shares of Common Stock will be issued in connection with the Reverse Stock Split. Instead, stockholders who otherwise would have been entitled to receive fractional shares were entitled to receive a cash payment (without interest and subject to applicable withholding taxes) in lieu of such fractional shares equal to the fraction of a share of common stock to which such stockholder would otherwise be entitled multiplied by (i) the closing price per share of the common stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market at the close of business on the trading day preceding the date of the Certificate of Amendment, multiplied by (ii) the Reverse Stock Split Number.

The shares of Common Stock underlying the Company’s outstanding stock options and warrants will be proportionately adjusted along with corresponding adjustments to their exercise prices.
  
At the special meeting of stockholders held on March 12, 2025, the stockholders of the Company approved a proposal to authorize the Company’s Board of Directors (the “Board”) to file a Certificate of Amendment to effect the Reverse Stock Split at a ratio between 1-for-2 and 1-for-10, as determined by the Chairman of the Board in his sole discretion.

The combination of, and reduction in, the number of issued shares of Common Stock as a result of the Reverse Stock Split will occur automatically on March 25, 2025, without any additional action on the part of Xcel Brands’ stockholders. The Company’s transfer agent, Continental Stock Transfer & Trust Company, is the exchange agent for the Reverse Stock Split and will correspond with stockholders of record regarding the Reverse Stock Split. Stockholders owning shares via a broker or other nominee will have their positions automatically adjusted to reflect the Reverse Stock Split.

Among other considerations, the Reverse Stock Split is intended to assist in bringing Xcel Brands into compliance with the $1.00 minimum bid price requirement for maintaining the listing of its Common Stock on the Nasdaq Capital Market.

Additional information regarding the Reverse Stock Split can be found in the Company’s Definitive Proxy Statement on Schedule 14A, filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 14, 2025. A link to this document is available at https://www.sec.gov and on Xcel Brands’ website at https://www.xcelbrands.com/pages/sec-filings.

For more information about Xcel Brands, visit www.xcelbrands.com. Information on the Company’s website does not constitute a part of and is not incorporated by reference into this press release.

About Xcel Brands

Xcel Brands, Inc. (NASDAQ: XELB) is a media and consumer products company engaged in the design, licensing, marketing, live streaming, and social commerce sales of branded apparel, footwear, accessories, fine jewelry, home goods and other consumer products, and the acquisition of dynamic consumer lifestyle brands. Xcel was founded in 2011 with a vision to reimagine shopping, entertainment, and social media as social commerce. Xcel owns the Halston, Judith Ripka, and C. Wonder brands, as well as the Tower Hill by Christie Brinkley co-branded collaboration, and holds noncontrolling interests in the Isaac Mizrahi brand and Orme Live. Xcel also owns and manages the Longaberger brand through its controlling interest in Longaberger Licensing LLC. Xcel is pioneering a true modern consumer products sales strategy which includes the promotion and sale of products under its brands through interactive television, digital live-stream shopping, social commerce, brick-and-mortar retail, and e-commerce channels to be everywhere its customers shop. The company’s brands have generated in excess of $5 billion in retail sales via livestreaming in interactive television and digital channels alone, and over 20,000 hours of live-stream and social commerce. Headquartered in New York City, Xcel Brands is led by an executive team with significant live streaming, production, merchandising, design, marketing, retailing, and licensing experience, and a proven track record of success in elevating branded consumer products companies.

Forward Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact contained in this press release, including statements regarding future events, our future financial performance, business strategy and plans and objectives of management for future operations, are forward-looking statements. We have attempted to identify forward-looking statements by terminology including “anticipates,” “believes,” “can,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “could,” “estimates,” “expects,” “intends,” “may,” “appears,” “suggests,” “future,” “likely,” “goal,” “plans,” “potential,” “projects,” “predicts,” “seeks,” “should,” “would,” “guidance,” “confident” or “will” or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding our anticipated revenue, expenses, profitability, strategic plans and capital needs. These statements are based on information available to us on the date hereof and our current expectations, estimates and projections and are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other factors, including, without limitation, the risks discussed in the “Risk Factors” section and elsewhere in the Company’s Annual Report on form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021 and its other filings with the SEC, which may cause our or our industry’s actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Moreover, we operate in a very competitive and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for us to predict all risk factors, nor can we address the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause our actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. You should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Except as expressly required by the federal securities laws, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, changed circumstances or any other reason.

For further information please contact:

Seth Burroughs
Xcel Brands
sburroughs@xcelbrands.com

Primary Logo

Source: Xcel Brands, Inc

Inflation Cools, but Persists: Rising Costs of Food, Healthcare, and Transportation

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.8% year-over-year in February, with food, medical care, and auto costs still climbing.
– A dozen large Grade A eggs now average $5.90, up 59% from a year ago.
– Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, likely delaying any interest rate cuts.

American consumers continue to feel the sting of stubborn inflation as essential goods and services remain costly despite an overall slowdown in price growth. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a 2.8% year-over-year increase in February, a slight cooling from previous months but still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

One of the most notable price hikes continues to be in food costs, particularly for eggs. A dozen large Grade A eggs averaged $5.90 in February, a staggering 59% increase from a year ago. Other breakfast staples like coffee and bacon have also risen, adding to household grocery bills. While some categories, such as fruits and vegetables, saw modest declines, overall grocery prices remain elevated. Eating out is also becoming more expensive, with restaurant prices climbing 3.7% over the past year.

Medical expenses are another growing burden for consumers, with hospital costs up 3.6% year-over-year and nursing home care rising by 4.1%. Home healthcare costs surged 5.6%, reflecting the increasing demand for in-home medical services. Meanwhile, health insurance premiums climbed 3.9%, further squeezing household budgets already stretched thin by higher living costs.

The rising costs extend beyond healthcare and food, impacting transportation as well. Used car prices, which had been easing in previous months, surged again by 2.2% in January and another 0.9% in February. Auto insurance, a major expense for many households, has increased nearly 11% over the past year. Insurers continue to raise premiums as they struggle with underwriting losses, which have persisted for three consecutive years. However, there was some relief at the gas pump, with gasoline prices dipping slightly to a national average of $3.08 per gallon as of mid-March, down from $3.39 a year ago.

With inflation still running above target, the Federal Reserve faces a difficult decision in the coming months. The central bank has signaled that it will likely keep interest rates steady at its next policy meeting, as economic uncertainty surrounding tariffs and supply chain disruptions remains a concern. The Fed’s cautious stance reflects the balancing act it must perform—ensuring inflation continues to cool while avoiding any moves that could trigger a broader economic slowdown.

For consumers, the persistence of high prices across essential categories underscores the challenges of managing household budgets in this inflationary environment. While some areas, such as gasoline and certain food items, have seen modest relief, overall costs remain elevated. Policymakers will continue monitoring inflation trends closely, but for now, Americans should brace for continued financial strain as they navigate these price increases.

Verb Technology Acquires AI-Powered Social Selling Platform LyveCom

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Verb Technology Company, Inc. (Nasdaq: VERB) has announced the acquisition of LyveCom, an AI-driven video commerce platform, in a move that positions its MARKET.live platform as one of the most advanced AI-powered social shopping solutions in the industry. The transaction, which is subject to standard conditions including an audit of LyveCom’s financial statements, is expected to close within 60 days. However, Phase 1 of the integration has already been completed, with the newly updated MARKET.live launching today.

The acquisition brings AI-powered technology that enables brands and merchants to deliver an omnichannel livestream shopping experience. This allows businesses to engage customers not just on the MARKET.live platform, but also across their own websites, mobile apps, and social media platforms. With AI-driven video content automation and personalized shopping experiences, the new capabilities streamline content production while expanding reach. LyveCom’s proprietary technology also allows livestreams and shoppable videos to be embedded directly onto merchant websites without affecting site speed. At the same time, content from TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube can be aggregated and repurposed into interactive shopping experiences, enhancing engagement without the need for constant content creation.

The newly enhanced MARKET.live introduces several industry-changing innovations, including one-click simulcasting that allows brands to broadcast live shopping events across multiple platforms such as TikTok Shop, Shopify’s Shop App, and their own e-commerce websites. AI-powered tools will automate video content creation, while frictionless self-serve onboarding makes it easier for millions of Shopify merchants to integrate live and shoppable video in just three clicks. Strategic partnerships with Tapcart, Klaviyo, and Recharge will further expand MARKET.live’s reach in mobile commerce and direct-to-consumer brands. Additionally, an advanced analytics hub will provide real-time insights into shopper behavior, helping merchants refine their strategies and drive conversions.

The acquisition marks a major step toward establishing VERB’s MARKET.live as a leader in livestream and AI-powered social commerce. The platform’s integration with LyveCom’s AI solutions will enhance video content personalization, automate merchandising strategies, and improve conversion rates through AI-powered predictive analytics. The company also plans to launch AI avatar live shopping hosts, which will engage audiences in real time with near-human realism.

According to a report from The Business Research Company, the global social commerce industry is projected to surpass $1.29 trillion by 2028, growing at a CAGR of 13.7%. VERB’s latest move signals its intent to dominate this rapidly expanding space by setting a new standard for AI-powered interactive video commerce. CEO Rory J. Cutaia reinforced the company’s commitment to innovation, stating that the acquisition ensures MARKET.live will bridge brands, marketplaces, and social platforms in a way that enhances engagement and drives sales.

With the integration of LyveCom’s technology, MARKET.live is now positioned as the go-to platform for brands looking to future-proof their business with AI-powered video commerce. As the industry shifts toward interactive shopping experiences, VERB’s strategic expansion underscores its ambition to lead the next evolution of social commerce.

Perfect (PERF) – Positioning for New Revenue Opportunities

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, February 28, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $15.9 million, largely in line with our estimate of $16.2 million and up 12.4%, year-over-year. Adj. EBITDA of $0.25 million was below our estimate of $0.91 million, due primarily to lower-than-expected gross margins. This was likely due to the increased proportion of lower-margin B2C revenue as a share of total revenue.

Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. In our view, the company is poised to drive favorable revenue growth through expansion into untapped markets. For example, the emergence of its Skincare AI service allows it to reach new categories of clients. Through the recent Wannaby acquisition, the company also expanded its virtual try-on service offering to include additional fashion categories.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Perfect (PERF) – Issues Favorable 2025 Revenue Guidance

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, February 27, 2025

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $15.9 million, largely in line with our estimate of $16.2 million, illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Adj. EBITDA of $0.25 million was below our estimate of $0.91 million, due primarily to lower-than-expected gross margins.

Adding customers. Subscriptions to the company’s top B2C app, the YouCam beauty app, were up 14.3% over the prior year period, eclipsing 1 million subscribers. Additionally, the company’s brand client base increased to 732 from 708 at the end of Q3.  


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

The ODP Corporation (ODP) – First Look at the Fourth Quarter

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Thursday, February 27, 2025

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Challenging Conditions. Continuing challenging macroeconomic and business conditions impacted ODP in Q4. ODP Business Solutions faced economic factors that caused enterprise spending constraints in the quarter, while Office Depot had more cautious consumer spending (along with 47 fewer stores). However, fiscal year figures were in-line with management guidance, and management is executing on initiatives to improve traction on both fronts.

4Q Results. Sales for the fourth quarter were $1.62 billion compared to $1.80 billion last year but were above our expectations at $1.55 billion and consensus at $1.61 billion. Net loss totaled $3 million, or $0.10/sh, compared to a loss of $37 million, or $0.96/sh, in the prior year. Adjusted EPS was $0.66 versus $1.13 last year. We were at $0.40 and $0.68, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $58 million, down from $83 million last year, and we were at $49 million.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.

Travelzoo (TZOO) – Revenue Growth Expected to Significantly Ramp

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Wednesday, February 26, 2025

Travelzoo® provides its 30 million members with exclusive offers and one-of-a-kind experiences personally reviewed by our deal experts around the globe. We have our finger on the pulse of outstanding travel, entertainment, and lifestyle experiences. We work in partnership with more than 5,000 top travel suppliers—our long-standing relationships give Travelzoo members access to irresistible deals.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In line quarter. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $20.7 million and $5.4 million, both of which are in line with our estimates of $21.5 million and $5.1 million, respectively. The recent results were adversely affected by weakness in Europe, primarily Germany, which we believe is temporary. In our view, investors should focus on the improving fundamental trends likely beginning in the first quarter of 2025.

Europe lags, but appears temporary. The company’s North American segment had a solid quarter, while revenue was relatively flat compared to the prior year period, operating margins improved from 29% to 33%. Additionally, Jack’s Flight Club grew revenue and posted a positive operating income. Europe experienced a tough quarter, largely attributed to political uncertainty and advertising issues in Germany, which are not expected to continue.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – Post Call Commentary

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, February 24, 2025

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

An Overreaction. ACCO shares fell over 17% Friday, hitting a new 52-week low, on 4.5x normal daily volume. We believe the move to be misguided and not reflective of ongoing opportunities for the Company. We would reiterate, excluding unexpectedly negative forex, that ACCO’s 4Q24 results were in line with expectations.

Go Forward. While the operating environment remains challenging, there are green shoots of opportunity for the Company, such as the renewed back to office movement. Management is placing a primary focus on improving sales trends through a number of efforts, which, when combined with cost reduction efforts, places ACCO in position to generate substantial returns once the top line improves.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Celsius Acquires Alani Nutrition in $1.8 Billion Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Celsius acquires Alani Nutrition in a $1.8 billion deal, expected to close in Q2 2025.
– The merger aims to create a leading functional beverage platform, catering to growing demand for zero-sugar alternatives.
– Celsius projects $2 billion in sales post-acquisition, with $50 million in cost synergies over two years.

Celsius Holdings has announced plans to acquire Alani Nutrition in a landmark $1.8 billion deal, marking a major consolidation in the U.S. energy drink market. The agreement, expected to be finalized in the second quarter of 2025, includes a net purchase price of $1.65 billion and $150 million in tax assets.

Alani Nutrition, founded in 2018, has built a reputation as a “female-focused” brand offering functional beverages and snacks tailored to Gen Z and millennial consumers. The Kentucky-based company, previously operated by Congo Brands, produces energy drinks, protein shakes, snacks, and protein powders. The acquisition will transfer ownership from co-founders Katy and Haydn Schneider, as well as Congo Brands’ co-founders Max Clemons and Trey Steiger, to Celsius Holdings.

Celsius believes the deal will create a powerful synergy, forming a “leading better-for-you, functional lifestyle platform.” By integrating Alani Nu’s products, Celsius aims to expand its reach in the functional beverage space and tap into growing demand for zero-sugar alternatives. The company expects the merger to drive approximately $2 billion in sales, leveraging the combined distribution networks, brand awareness, and innovation capabilities of both entities.

John Fieldly, Chairman and CEO of Celsius, highlighted the strategic benefits of the acquisition, stating that it will “broaden the availability of Alani Nu’s functional products” and strengthen the company’s presence in new market segments. The transaction is projected to be accretive to cash earnings per share (EPS) within the first full year of ownership, with an estimated $50 million in cost synergies to be realized over two years post-closing.

Max Clemons of Congo Brands expressed confidence in the deal, emphasizing that Celsius will “unlock key growth opportunities” for Alani Nu, particularly in expanding its distribution and consumer engagement.

The acquisition announcement coincided with Celsius reporting its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2024. The company posted annual revenue of $1.36 billion, reflecting a 3% increase over the prior year. North American sales accounted for $1.28 billion, growing by 1%, while international revenues surged 37% to $74.7 million. Despite the revenue growth, Celsius experienced a decline in profitability, with adjusted EBITDA down 13% to $255.7 million and net profit falling 36% to $145.1 million.

Industry analysts view this acquisition as a strategic move that could help Celsius regain momentum in a highly competitive market. By capitalizing on Alani Nu’s strong brand presence and consumer loyalty, Celsius aims to solidify its position as a leader in the energy and functional beverage sector. The deal also signals an increasing trend of consolidation in the market, as major players look to expand their portfolios to meet shifting consumer preferences.

As the acquisition moves forward, investors and industry watchers will closely monitor how Celsius integrates Alani Nu into its operations and whether the expected synergies materialize. If successful, the merger could serve as a blueprint for future partnerships in the rapidly evolving health and wellness beverage industry.

Homebuyer and Homebuilder Confidence Dips Amid Economic Pressures

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– New tariffs on building materials and sustained high mortgage rates are dampening homebuilder confidence.
– Delinquency on government-backed loans is increasing, signaling strain among lower-income homeowners.
– Inflation and interest rates continue to influence housing affordability, with potential broader market implications.

In a troubling sign for the U.S. housing market, homebuilder confidence has plummeted to its lowest level in five months, primarily due to rising costs from new tariffs and high mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 42 in February, down from expectations of 46, indicating more builders view current conditions as poor. This downturn comes at a time when President Trump’s new tariffs on steel and aluminum, set to impact construction costs, are causing significant concern among builders.

Simultaneously, the mortgage landscape is growing more challenging for homeowners, particularly those with government-backed loans. Delinquency rates on Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veterans Affairs (VA) loans have surged past pre-pandemic levels, reaching 11.03% and 4.7% respectively. This rise underscores the financial strain felt by lower-income brackets amidst persistent inflation and elevated borrowing costs. Despite a slight decrease in interest rates in late 2024, the current economic climate has left many homeowners struggling to keep up with their mortgage payments, with job loss and excessive debt cited as major reasons for delinquency.

The broader economic implications are significant. While conventional mortgage delinquencies remain near historical lows, the uptick in FHA and VA loan issues might foreshadow a wider trend if economic conditions do not improve. Analysts like James Knightley from ING point out that while higher-income households might have seen benefits from stock market gains, the lower-income segment is feeling the squeeze from both rising costs and stagnant or reduced real income.

Moreover, recent data from ICE Mortgage Technology suggests that even high-income earners are beginning to show signs of financial stress, with delinquencies on various types of debt increasing. This could signal a more widespread economic downturn if not addressed. The housing market, often a bellwether for economic health, is thus at a critical juncture, with builders and buyers alike looking for signs of relief or further policy adjustments to navigate these turbulent times.

The current scenario might lead to a more cautious approach from builders. With 26% of builders cutting home prices in February and 59% offering incentives, it’s clear the market is feeling the pressure. Additionally, the NAHB survey’s indicators for future sales and buyer traffic have seen significant declines, suggesting a potential slowdown in housing activity unless there are interventions to ease the financial burden on potential buyers and builders alike.

As the market braces for these economic headwinds, stakeholders are watching closely for any policy shifts that could alleviate the pressures on the housing sector. Whether through regulatory reforms, adjustments in monetary policy, or international trade negotiations to mitigate tariff impacts, the path forward for housing will be shaped by how these challenges are met.

The ripple effects of these economic pressures could extend beyond the housing market, potentially impacting related industries like construction materials, home furnishing, and real estate services. There’s a growing concern that if the housing market continues to struggle, it might pull down consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of U.S. GDP, leading to a broader economic slowdown.

In response, some in the industry are calling for more robust support mechanisms, like expanded first-time buyer incentives or government-backed initiatives to stimulate construction activity. The hope is that such measures could help stabilize the market and protect the livelihoods of those dependent on the housing sector, while also ensuring that the American dream of homeownership remains within reach for the next generation.

Steve Madden to Acquire Kurt Geiger in $365 Million Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Steve Madden has announced a definitive agreement to acquire UK-based Kurt Geiger for approximately £289 million ($365 million) in cash.
– The acquisition aligns with Steve Madden’s strategic goals of international expansion and strengthening its accessories and direct-to-consumer business.
– Kurt Geiger has seen significant growth in recent years, with an estimated annual revenue of £400 million.

Steve Madden (Nasdaq: SHOO), a leading designer and marketer of fashion footwear, accessories, and apparel, has reached a definitive agreement to acquire British luxury footwear and accessories brand Kurt Geiger. The transaction, valued at approximately £289 million ($365 million), marks a significant step in Steve Madden’s expansion into the international luxury and premium fashion market. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2025, pending regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.

This acquisition supports Steve Madden’s broader strategy of expanding into international markets while also strengthening its presence in the accessories category. Kurt Geiger, a brand renowned for its high-quality, fashion-forward designs, has built a strong reputation in the global fashion landscape. Known for its statement handbags and footwear, the brand’s alignment with Steve Madden’s existing portfolio makes it a compelling addition.

Edward Rosenfeld, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Steve Madden, highlighted the value of Kurt Geiger’s differentiated brand positioning and strong consumer appeal. “Kurt Geiger London has demonstrated exceptional growth, thanks to its unique brand image and high-quality product offerings,” Rosenfeld said. “Its strong British DNA and expanding global footprint align perfectly with our strategic focus areas, making this acquisition a natural fit.”

Founded in the 1960s, Kurt Geiger has evolved into a globally recognized luxury brand, with a presence in major department stores like Harrods and Selfridges. In addition to its flagship Kurt Geiger London brand, the company also operates KG Kurt Geiger and Carvela, catering to a broad spectrum of consumers within the luxury and premium fashion markets.

Neil Clifford, CEO of Kurt Geiger, expressed confidence in the brand’s continued success under the Steve Madden umbrella. “We are incredibly proud of what we’ve built at Kurt Geiger and the strong response our designs have received worldwide. With Steve Madden’s expertise and global infrastructure, we see tremendous opportunities for expansion and growth in the years ahead.”

The acquisition comes at a time when the fashion industry is witnessing increased consolidation, with companies seeking to strengthen their market presence through strategic acquisitions. As consumers continue to prioritize premium, high-quality products, brands like Kurt Geiger stand to benefit from the growing demand for luxury fashion and accessories.

Moreover, Steve Madden’s move underscores the broader trend of U.S.-based fashion companies investing in European heritage brands to enhance their global appeal. With Kurt Geiger’s strong direct-to-consumer strategy and emphasis on premium accessories, the acquisition is expected to bolster Steve Madden’s competitive position in the evolving retail landscape.

For investors interested in the apparel and retail sector, another brand to watch is Vince Holdings, a premium fashion retailer covered by Noble research analyst Michael Kupinski. Vince Holdings has carved out a niche in the luxury apparel space, offering sophisticated styles with a focus on quality and craftsmanship.

Hyatt Expands All-Inclusive Dominance with $2.6 Billion Acquisition of Playa Hotels & Resorts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Hyatt to acquire Playa Hotels & Resorts for $2.6 billion, including $900 million in debt.
– The deal expands Hyatt’s all-inclusive footprint across Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.
– Hyatt plans to maintain an asset-light model by selling Playa’s owned properties post-acquisition.

Hyatt Hotels Corporation (NYSE: H) has announced a definitive agreement to acquire Playa Hotels & Resorts N.V. (NASDAQ: PLYA) in a transaction valued at approximately $2.6 billion, including $900 million in debt. This move solidifies Hyatt’s dominance in the all-inclusive resort sector while expanding its footprint across key markets in Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica.

Since its initial investment in Playa in 2013, Hyatt has leveraged its relationship to establish the Hyatt Ziva and Hyatt Zilara brands. Playa currently owns and operates eight of Hyatt’s all-inclusive resorts, and this acquisition will allow Hyatt to take full control of these properties, securing long-term management agreements and reinforcing its presence in the luxury all-inclusive space.

“Hyatt has firmly established itself as a leader in the all-inclusive space,” said Mark Hoplamazian, President and CEO of Hyatt. “This pending transaction allows us to broaden our portfolio while providing more value to all of our stakeholders through an expanded management platform for all-inclusive resorts.”

With Playa’s diverse portfolio of high-end resorts, the acquisition enhances Hyatt’s distribution channels, incorporating Playa’s properties into Hyatt’s expansive network. Hyatt’s ALG Vacations and Unlimited Vacation Club will further drive guest engagement and maximize revenue potential across the brand’s growing all-inclusive segment.

Hyatt’s latest acquisition aligns with its aggressive growth strategy in the all-inclusive segment. The company previously acquired Apple Leisure Group in 2021 and completed a joint venture with Grupo Piñero in 2024, adding the Bahia Principe Hotels & Resorts portfolio to its Inclusive Collection. Hyatt now boasts a formidable presence in Latin America, the Caribbean, and Europe, with approximately 55,000 rooms across its all-inclusive brands.

Despite the acquisition, Hyatt remains committed to its asset-light business model. The company plans to sell Playa’s owned properties and expects to generate at least $2.0 billion from asset sales by 2027. Hyatt anticipates that asset-light earnings will exceed 90% on a pro forma basis by that time.

Hyatt intends to fund the acquisition entirely through new debt financing and aims to pay down over 80% of the new debt with proceeds from asset sales. The deal is expected to close later this year, subject to regulatory and Playa shareholder approval.

The transaction has received backing from leading financial institutions, with BDT & MSD Partners serving as lead financial advisor to Hyatt. Berkadia is acting as Hyatt’s real estate advisor, while BofA Securities, J.P. Morgan, and Wells Fargo have provided fully committed bridge financing.

With this acquisition, Hyatt continues to reinforce its leadership in the luxury all-inclusive market, ensuring greater value for guests, stakeholders, and investors alike.

1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) – A Largely Self Inflicted Miss

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Friday, January 31, 2025

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fiscal Q2 Results. The company reported fiscal Q2 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $775.5 million and $116.3 million, both of which were lower than our estimates of $801.1 million and $124.7 million, respectively. Notably, an order management system (OMS) that was implemented in Q2 for Harry & David faced issues with complicated orders during periods of high volume. The OMS issue, which was resolved in the quarter, resulted in roughly $20 million of lost revenue and is largely to blame for the downside variance.

Strategic initiatives. Importantly, the company remains focused on reducing costs through increased automation, increasing investments in sales and marketing, and broadening its product offerings for its price-sensitive customers. Notably, management highlighted that the savings from its cost reduction efforts will largely fund its increased investment in sales and marketing in an effort to broaden its customer base.


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