Category: Natural Resources

Thursday, March 19, 2020

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)

Results in line but dark clouds growing

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQZ Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Operational results strong. The company met production guidance with 7% year over year growth. Operating costs continue to decline (2019 LOE of $14.36/BBL vs $16.02). Reserves are being replaced (120% reserve replacement) even as the company limits cap exp to a level below operating cash flow. All in all, this was a good year for the company on an operational side as positive trends that have developed in recent years continued.


Financial results slightly below expectations. Realized oil and gas prices were near expectations (oil slightly below and gas above) leading to revenues being near expectations. Operating netbacks (sales less royalties, transportation and operating costs) were generally in line for the quarter and year. The same can be said for adjusted fund flow for the quarter and year which came in at $7.9 and $32.5 million versus our $8.2 and $34.2 million estimates. EPS of $(0.28) and $(0.39) were well below our $(0.01) and $(0.12) estimates. We speculate that interest expense and income taxes were greater than expected. Indeed, net debt levels…






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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
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NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)

Supply Agreements Bolster Financing Discussions.

Gevo Inc is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company engaged in the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products based on isobutanol produced from renewable feedstocks. Its operating segments are the Gevo segment and the Gevo Development/Agri-Energy segment. By its segments, it is involved in research and development activities related to the future production of isobutanol, including the development of its biocatalysts, the production and sale of biojet fuel, its Retrofit process and the next generation of chemicals and biofuels that will be based on its isobutanol technology. Gevo Development/Agri-Energy is the key revenue generating segment which involves the operation of the Luverne Facility and production of ethanol, isobutanol and related products.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Narrower 4Q2019 loss in line with expectations. No change in 2020 estimates. Adjusted EBITDA of $(4.0) million was down from $(4.9) million in 4Q2018 as higher hydrocarbon more than offset lower ethanol production.


Solid progress on Phase 1 goal to lower carbon intensity. The startup of wind energy and the upcoming move to renewable natural gas (RNG) use are signs of progress on Phase 1. Contracts with three dairies support RNG buildout to lower carbon intensity. Added hydrocarbon production is…


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Thursday, March 19, 2020

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)

Results in line but dark clouds growing

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQZ Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Operational results strong. The company met production guidance with 7% year over year growth. Operating costs continue to decline (2019 LOE of $14.36/BBL vs $16.02). Reserves are being replaced (120% reserve replacement) even as the company limits cap exp to a level below operating cash flow. All in all, this was a good year for the company on an operational side as positive trends that have developed in recent years continued.


Financial results slightly below expectations. Realized oil and gas prices were near expectations (oil slightly below and gas above) leading to revenues being near expectations. Operating netbacks (sales less royalties, transportation and operating costs) were generally in line for the quarter and year. The same can be said for adjusted fund flow for the quarter and year which came in at $7.9 and $32.5 million versus our $8.2 and $34.2 million estimates. EPS of $(0.28) and $(0.39) were well below our $(0.01) and $(0.12) estimates. We speculate that interest expense and income taxes were greater than expected. Indeed, net debt levels…






Click here to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)

Supply Agreements Bolster Financing Discussions.

Gevo Inc is a renewable chemicals and biofuels company engaged in the development and commercialization of alternatives to petroleum-based products based on isobutanol produced from renewable feedstocks. Its operating segments are the Gevo segment and the Gevo Development/Agri-Energy segment. By its segments, it is involved in research and development activities related to the future production of isobutanol, including the development of its biocatalysts, the production and sale of biojet fuel, its Retrofit process and the next generation of chemicals and biofuels that will be based on its isobutanol technology. Gevo Development/Agri-Energy is the key revenue generating segment which involves the operation of the Luverne Facility and production of ethanol, isobutanol and related products.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Narrower 4Q2019 loss in line with expectations. No change in 2020 estimates. Adjusted EBITDA of $(4.0) million was down from $(4.9) million in 4Q2018 as higher hydrocarbon more than offset lower ethanol production.


Solid progress on Phase 1 goal to lower carbon intensity. The startup of wind energy and the upcoming move to renewable natural gas (RNG) use are signs of progress on Phase 1. Contracts with three dairies support RNG buildout to lower carbon intensity. Added hydrocarbon production is…


>




Click here to Get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

New Marine Awards Support Current Outlook.

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Two Marine jobs awarded for total of $24 million. Energy infrastructure related work along the Gulf Coast begins shortly and should finish by year-end 2020. Positive sign given the sharp drop in crude oil prices.

New work moves total announced YTD 2020 awards to $111 million. Marine awards total $71 million and Concrete awards total $40 million. Additional awards seem likely since other low bids pending awards from…









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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Orion Group Holdings (ORN)

New Marine Awards Support Current Outlook.

Orion Group Holdings, based in Houston, Texas, is a specialty construction company within the Marine and Industrial Construction sectors, with operations focused in the continental United States and Caribbean. Revenue is split roughly 50/50 between a Marine Construction segment that provides marine facility, pipeline and structural construction services and a Commercial Concrete segment that provides turnkey concrete services in the light commercial and structural construction markets.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Two Marine jobs awarded for total of $24 million. Energy infrastructure related work along the Gulf Coast begins shortly and should finish by year-end 2020. Positive sign given the sharp drop in crude oil prices.

New work moves total announced YTD 2020 awards to $111 million. Marine awards total $71 million and Concrete awards total $40 million. Additional awards seem likely since other low bids pending awards from…









Get the full report on Channelchek desktop.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Grindrod Shipping (GRIN)

Weaker Operating Results, But 2H2020 Recovery Expected

Grindrod Shipping, originated in South Africa with roots dating back to 1910. The company is based in Singapore, with offices around the world including, London, Durban, Cape Town, Tokyo and Rotterdam. Its primary listing is on Nasdaq and secondary listing on the JSE.
Grindrod Shipping owns and operates a diversified fleet of owned, long-term chartered and joint-venture dry-bulk and liquid-bulk vessels across the globe.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reported adjusted EBITDA of $39.7 million was a sharp improvement over the 2018 number of -$0.1 million. Adjusting for IFRS 16 adoption, we calculate that adjusted EBITDA was $24.2 million in 2019, which was below expectations due to dry bulk market weakness late in the year.


Adjusting estimates to reflect 2019 operating results and current dry bulk market weakness. Our 2020 EBITDA estimate drops to ~$40 million from $59 million. Starting with 1Q2020, operating results will be reported quarterly. While the dry bulk market is currently weak due to seasonality and havoc wreaked by the spread of the coronavirus, we believe that supply growth is muted and…





Click to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Grindrod Shipping (GRIN)

Weaker Operating Results, But 2H2020 Recovery Expected

Grindrod Shipping, originated in South Africa with roots dating back to 1910. The company is based in Singapore, with offices around the world including, London, Durban, Cape Town, Tokyo and Rotterdam. Its primary listing is on Nasdaq and secondary listing on the JSE.
Grindrod Shipping owns and operates a diversified fleet of owned, long-term chartered and joint-venture dry-bulk and liquid-bulk vessels across the globe.

Poe Fratt, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Reported adjusted EBITDA of $39.7 million was a sharp improvement over the 2018 number of -$0.1 million. Adjusting for IFRS 16 adoption, we calculate that adjusted EBITDA was $24.2 million in 2019, which was below expectations due to dry bulk market weakness late in the year.


Adjusting estimates to reflect 2019 operating results and current dry bulk market weakness. Our 2020 EBITDA estimate drops to ~$40 million from $59 million. Starting with 1Q2020, operating results will be reported quarterly. While the dry bulk market is currently weak due to seasonality and havoc wreaked by the spread of the coronavirus, we believe that supply growth is muted and…





Click to get the full report.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)

Earnings Preview

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQZ Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

We are lowering our 2020 ebitda and EPS estimates ahead of earnings to reflect a sharp drop in oil prices. We have lowered our WTI estimate to $45 from $52. With the decline, our 2020 ebitda estimate drops to $15 million from $35 million and our EPS estimate drops to $(0.25) from $(0.14). We would note that our oil price assumption is still above current oil prices. We are not adjusting our 2021 estimates at this point under the assumptions that oil prices will return to normal when the Coronavirus subsides and the global economy strengthens.


We are also reducing our capital investment and production assumptions. Management has indicated a plan to hold expenditures to a level near cash flow. As a result, we are lowering 2020 capital investments to $20 million from $35 million. This will cut the number of wells drilled down from 11-12 to 6-8. We are also lowering our 2020 production from 5,415 BOE/d to…









Get the full report on Channelchek desktop.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

InPlay Oil (IPOOF)

Earnings Preview

InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQZ Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.

Michael Heim, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

We are lowering our 2020 ebitda and EPS estimates ahead of earnings to reflect a sharp drop in oil prices. We have lowered our WTI estimate to $45 from $52. With the decline, our 2020 ebitda estimate drops to $15 million from $35 million and our EPS estimate drops to $(0.25) from $(0.14). We would note that our oil price assumption is still above current oil prices. We are not adjusting our 2021 estimates at this point under the assumptions that oil prices will return to normal when the Coronavirus subsides and the global economy strengthens.


We are also reducing our capital investment and production assumptions. Management has indicated a plan to hold expenditures to a level near cash flow. As a result, we are lowering 2020 capital investments to $20 million from $35 million. This will cut the number of wells drilled down from 11-12 to 6-8. We are also lowering our 2020 production from 5,415 BOE/d to…









Get the full report on Channelchek desktop.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Great Panther Mining Limited (GPL)

Company Update Is a Mixed Bag

Great Panther Mining Limited, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, is a precious metals mining and exploration company that operates three mines. These include: 1) the Tucano gold mine in Amapa State, Brazil, 2) the Guanajuato mine complex which includes the Guanajuato and San Ignacio mines in Mexico, and 3) the Topia mine in Mexico. Great Panther also owns the Coricancha Mine in Peru, which is expected to restart operations in 2020. The shares are traded under the ticker “GPR” on the Toronto Stock Exchange and under the ticker “GPL” on the NYSE American.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updated technical reports. Great Panther released results from updated technical reports for its Guanajuato, San Ignacio and Tucano mines. Compared with previous reports, estimated mineral resources for the Guanajuato mine increased by 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces as a result of 2019 exploration efforts, while decreasing by 6.4 million silver equivalent ounces at San Ignacio due, in part, to depletion. Tucano mineral reserves and resources declined, by 489,000 and 500,000 gold ounces, respectively.

Topia mine operations to be suspended.  The company has stopped depositing tailings at its Phase II tailing storage facility due to evidence of material movement underlying the facility. We have assumed that mining operations at the Topia mine are suspended until an alternate solution is available. Alternatives include continued use of…









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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Great Panther Mining Limited (GPL)

Company Update Is a Mixed Bag

Great Panther Mining Limited, headquartered in Vancouver, Canada, is a precious metals mining and exploration company that operates three mines. These include: 1) the Tucano gold mine in Amapa State, Brazil, 2) the Guanajuato mine complex which includes the Guanajuato and San Ignacio mines in Mexico, and 3) the Topia mine in Mexico. Great Panther also owns the Coricancha Mine in Peru, which is expected to restart operations in 2020. The shares are traded under the ticker “GPR” on the Toronto Stock Exchange and under the ticker “GPL” on the NYSE American.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Updated technical reports. Great Panther released results from updated technical reports for its Guanajuato, San Ignacio and Tucano mines. Compared with previous reports, estimated mineral resources for the Guanajuato mine increased by 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces as a result of 2019 exploration efforts, while decreasing by 6.4 million silver equivalent ounces at San Ignacio due, in part, to depletion. Tucano mineral reserves and resources declined, by 489,000 and 500,000 gold ounces, respectively.

Topia mine operations to be suspended.  The company has stopped depositing tailings at its Phase II tailing storage facility due to evidence of material movement underlying the facility. We have assumed that mining operations at the Topia mine are suspended until an alternate solution is available. Alternatives include continued use of…









Get the full report on Channelchek desktop.

This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision. 

Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Endeavour Silver Corp (EXK)

Lowering Estimates for 2020; Rating Reset to Market Perform

Endeavour Silver Corp is a precious metal mining company. The company is primarily engaged in silver mining and owns three high-grade, underground, silver-gold mines in Mexico. Its other business activities include acquisition, exploration, development, extraction, processing, refining and reclamation. The company is organized into four operating mining segments, Guanacevi, Bolanitos, El Cubo, and El Compas, which are located in Mexico as well as Exploration and Corporate segments. Its Exploration segment consists of projects in the exploration and evaluation phases in Mexico and Chile.

Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst of Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

EXK reports fourth quarter and full year earnings. EXK reported a full year net loss of $48.1 million, or ($0.36) per share, compared to our forecast of a loss of $37.8 million, or ($0.28) per share. The company reported a fourth quarter loss of $17.9 million, or ($0.13) per share, compared to our estimate of a loss of $7.6 million, or ($0.05) per share. While revenue exceeded our forecast, cost of sales and expenses were above our estimates.

Updating estimates. We have reduced our 2020 and 2021 EPS estimates to $0.01 and $0.05 from $0.04 and and $0.06, respectively. We forecast 2020 and 2021 EBITDA of $34.1 million and $42.0 million, respectively. Our revised 2020 estimates reflect more gradual operational improvement at the Bolanitos mine and…

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This research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst
certification and important disclosures included in the full report. 
NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of
this research summary.  Proper due diligence is required before
making any investment decision.