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Digital, Media & Technology Industry Report: Outlook For 2024

Posted on by cpatches

Tuesday, January 16, 2024

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the bottom of the report for important disclosures

Optimism For A Good 2024. In this report, we provide our advertising outlook for 2024 and provide our best picks to play the expected advertising rebound. Our take on the year is based on an improving economic outlook, particularly in the second half of the year, and heavy influx of Political advertising. Our favorable advertising outlook is based on a resilient labor market and lower interest rates to avoid a recession in 2024.

Have we seen the trough for this cycle? With our economic scenario in mind, we anticipate an improving economic environment in the second half of 2024. Notably, we believe that advertising trends are improving into the first quarter 2024, with the rate of decline moderating for both Radio and Television. 

National advertising expected to strengthen. The weakness in National was the biggest issue for broadcasters in 2023. We believe that National advertising trends should improve in 2024 both from the perspective of a sluggish consumer in the first half and from an improving economic outlook in the second half.

How big will Political be? We anticipate a strong political advertising environment in 2024, an increase of 13% to roughly $10 billion from 2020 levels. Importantly, about half of the high margin political advertising dollars are expected to be spent with television broadcasters. 

Highlights of favorite picks for 2024. Media stocks are typically early cycle stocks, which tend to outperform in the midst of the economic downturn or trough as investors begin to anticipate economic improvement. We believe media stocks are timely and offer a compelling return potential given depressed valuations. In addition, some companies pay a dividend, offering attractive total return potential.

Investment Appraisal

Optimism For A Good 2024

The fortunes of advertising based companies are driven by the economy and the health of the consumer. As such, we start this report with our take on the economy in 2024. On December 4th, at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, Noblecon19 hosted an economic panel to discuss the business environment outlook for 2024. The economic panel consisted of a diverse group of industry professionals with a wide range of expertise and experience. In our economic outlook for 2024, we take into consideration the perspective of Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers.

Mr. Torres highlighted 2023 as a resilient year for consumer spending, which was driven by excess pandemic savings accumulated in 2020 and 2021. Mr. Torres anticipates a slowdown in consumer spending and a strong labor market in 2024. Notably, he believes a resilient labor market will keep consumers spending and will keep the country from falling into a recession. Additionally, Mr. Torres highlighted that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) annualized inflation over the last six months is running near 2.5%, which is very close to the FED’s goal of 2.0%. With moderating inflation pressures, Mr. Torres highlighted that the FED is likely to cut rates in March of 2024, which would be beneficial for small and mid-cap companies. While Mr. Torres largely has a positive outlook for 2024 and beyond, a point of concern was the federal government’s growing interest expense on debt, he noted that the government will eventually have to reduce spending or accept 3% – 3.5% inflation over the long-term.

The general U.S. economy is expected to soften in 2024, particularly in the first half, with a prospect that the economy could slip into recession. Our economic scenario for 2024 anticipates the economy will soften in the first half of the year and rebound in the second half of the year due to the prospect of a lower interest rate environment and resilient labor market.

The video of the Economic Perspectives panel may be viewed here. 

Small Cap Cycle?

Small cap investors have gone through a rough period. For the past several years, investors have anticipated an economic downturn. With these concerns, investors turned toward “safe haven” large cap stocks, which by and large can weather economic downturns and have significant trading volume should investors need to sell their positions. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, large cap and small cap, one of the largest since 1999. Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2.5 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 15 times. We believe the disparity is due to higher risk in the small cap stocks, given that some companies may not be cash flow positive, have capital needs, or have limited share float. However, investors seem to have overlooked small cap stocks with favorable fundamentals. While small cap stocks are more speculative than large caps, many are growing revenues and cash flow, have capable balance sheets, and/or are cash flow positive. In our view, the valuation gap should resolve itself over time for attractive emerging growth stocks. Some market strategists suggest that small cap stocks trade at the most undervalued in the market.

Dan Thelen, Managing Director of small cap equity at Ancora Advisors, highlighted the valuation gap between small cap and large cap stocks during the economic panel at Noblecon19 on December 5, 2023. Mr. Thelen noted that investors are not recognizing the risk mitigation efforts small cap companies have undertaken in the high interest rate environment. He believes that changes small cap companies have implemented are not reflected in stock prices and should be a tailwind moving forward. Again, his comments can be viewed on the video of the Economic Perspectives panel here. 

2024 Advertising Outlook

In our advertising outlook for 2024, we take into consideration the perspective of Lisa Knutson, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of E.W Scripps. Ms. Knutson is on the frontline of the economy as one of the largest TV broadcasters in the country. As a speaker on the Noblecon19 economic panel, she depicted the local and national advertising markets as a tale of two cities. Notably, Ms. Knutson highlighted resilience in local advertising and sequential improvement over the past few quarters in the auto advertising category. Additionally, she highlighted green shoots in local advertising, particularly in the services, home improvement and retail advertising categories. Importantly, political ad spend for the 2024 election cycle is expected to be approximately $10 billion, which is roughly a 13% increase from 2020, as illustrated in Figure #1 Political Ad Spend. About half of the high margin political advertising dollars are expected to be spent with television broadcasters. Our advertising forecast for television, radio and digital are highlighted later in this report. 

Figure #1 Political Ad spend

Source: Statista

Stock Recommendations

With our economic scenario in mind, we have identified certain media stocks that should perform well and/or lead the industry as economic prospects improve. Media stocks are typically early cycle stocks. This means that the stocks tend to outperform in the midst of the economic downturn or trough as investors begin to anticipate economic improvement. In addition, small cap stocks in general have been out of favor, with many stocks trading at historic low stock valuations (over the past several economic cycles) and also relative to the valuations of leadership stocks, such as the Magnificent 7 (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia and Tesla). This report highlights some of our favorite picks for 2024. Our favorites include companies that are leveraged to benefit from the influx of Political advertising and improving economy, generate positive free cash flow, and have capable balance sheets to invest it growth initiatives. Finally, we recommend stocks that have compelling valuations and/or pay a dividend to provide an attractive total return investment opportunity. 

Digital Media & Technology

Decelerating Revenue Growth, But Faster Than Other Advertising Categories

Digital Advertising has been growing rapidly over the past several years, bolstered by cord-cutting trends and generally, by an increasingly digital world. Digital Advertising includes various categories of advertising, such as audio, video, influencer, search, banner, and others. According to Statista, U.S. Digital Advertising spending is expected to grow at 15% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), from 2017-2028, from $90.1 billion to $402.1 billion. Figure #2 U.S. Digital Advertising Spend illustrates the 2017-2028 forecast, which is inclusive of the various different sub-categories of Digital Advertising.

Figure #2 U.S. Digital Advertising Spend

Source: Statista

Specifically in 2024, U.S. Digital Advertising is expected to grow a healthy 10% above 2023 levels, according to Statista. There are some categories of Digital Advertising, however, that are expected to grow especially fast in 2024, such as Connected TV (CTV) advertising, programmatic advertising, and influencer advertising. All three categorizations of Digital advertising are estimated to have above-average growth in 2024. According to Statista, influencer advertising in the U.S. will grow at 14% in 2024, while, according to eMarketer, U.S. programmatic and CTV advertising will grow at 13% and 17%, respectively.

In our view, there are several key factors strengthening these verticals. For example, influencer advertising allows brands to reach younger demographics through personalities those audiences trust. Moreover, during a time when there is uncertainty around the future of cookies and other forms of User IDs for targeted advertising, influencer advertising offers an alternative vehicle for audience targeting. Google has indicated plans to no longer use 3rd party cookies to deliver advertising in 2024, although the implementation of this plan has been delayed multiple times before. Additionally, we believe cord cutting is a major factor in the growth of connected TV, likely to be a strong growth vertical for programmatic digital advertising. 

Noble’s Digital Media indices fared well over the past year with most outperforming the S&P 500 over that span, as illustrated in Figure #4 Digital Media LTM Performance. Most recently, the Social Media and Marketing Tech indices have performed strongest, up 18.9% and 24.2%, respectively, over the last 3-months. Figure #3 Digital Media 3-month Performance illustrates the last quarter’s performance by Noble’s Digital Media indices. However, many of the indices were skewed positively by the strong stock performance of the larger cap constituents. For example, META was up 194% over the trailing 12 months, while Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) also performed well, up 77% and 98%, over the same timeframe, respectively. Yet, in Q4 the performance disparity began to abate with the smaller cap constituents of Noble’s Digital indices contributing more to the positive returns, for the most part. We believe this could signal the beginning of shift towards the smaller cap stocks that had depressed valuations in 2023 relative to their large cap counterparts.  

Despite the large cap versus small cap valuation disparity in 2023, there are several small cap stocks that performed well over the past 12 months, outshining respective indices. Notably, Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) was up roughly 500% over the past year. Most of the runup of DRCT occurred late in Q4, after the company reported results far exceeding Street estimates. In our view, DRCT was substantially undervalued and is beginning to be discovered by more investors. Importantly, the increased trading activity has put the stock on investing screens for institutional, small cap investors. Another notable small cap performance was Townsquare Media (TSQ), which has a large Digital Advertising component to its business. TSQ was up 45% in the past year. 

Below, we outlined some of the investment highlights for our closely followed Digital Media companies. In addition, Figure #5  Ad Tech Industry Comparables highlights the stock valuations of the sector. As the chart depicts, our favorite stocks current trade well below the averages for the industry and some of the larger cap names. One of our closely followed companies, AdTheorent, is a stand out. Near current levels, the ADTH shares trade at a modest 2.5 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 Adj. EBITDA estimate, well below the 15.1 times average for the sector. Given the compelling stock valuation, we highlight this company as our current favorite in the industry. In addition, the Direct Digital shares trade at 10 times Enterprise Value to our 2024 Adj. EBITDA estimate, well below the 15.1 times industry average. As such, we view the DRCT shares as compelling. 

Figure #3 Digital Media 3-month Performance

Source: Capital IQ 

Figure #4 Digital Media LTM Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) – Programmatic Advertising. We view DRCT as a compelling play on the Programmatic Advertising market. The company operates a sell-side platform (SSP), in addition to servicing buy-side advertising clients through managing their digital advertising strategies. Importantly, the company’s niche comes from its deep relationships with multi-cultural publishers, a key competitive advantage in our view. In 2024, we estimate the company’s revenue will grow 30% above our 2023 forecast with adj. EBITDA growth of 33%. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

AdTheorent (ADTH) – Programmatic Advertising. ADTH is a unique play on programmatic advertising with cutting-edge audience targeting capabilities, powered by its machine learning (ML) platform. Due to its ML platform, the company does not need to use third-party cookies and other forms of user IDs to target audiences. Not only does this position the company well for Google’s phasing our of third-party cookies, but it also allows the company to offer clients a privacy-forward method of audience targeting. Some key verticals for the company include the healthcare industry as well as connected TV. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.     

Townsquare Media (TSQ) – Programmatic & SMB Digital Advertising. TSQ is a media company that has transformed from primarily a radio station operator to a Digital Advertising business, boasting multiple digital verticals. We believe it is a compelling play on the digital transition occurring in small business across the country. The company provides comprehensive digital marketing services to small and medium-sized businesses in its radio markets, leveraging its deep local relationships. Additionally, the company operates a programmatic advertising business, which is benefiting from the growth of CTV.  For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Entravision Communications (EVC) – Programmatic & Social Media Advertising. EVC is one of our favorite social media advertising plays. The company serves as Meta’s exclusive ad agency in several emerging markets, such as, certain regions of Latin America. It also represents TikTok in parts of Asia. In addition, the company owns a programmatic agency, known as Smadex. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here. 

Figure #5 Ad Tech Industry Comparables

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

Traditional Media

The Largest Caps Performed The Best

The Newspaper Index was the only traditional media sector that outperformed the general market in the past quarter and trailing 12 months, as illustrated in Figure #7 Traditional Media LTM Performance. In the latest quarter, Newspaper stocks outperformed the general market, up 20.4% versus down 11.2% for the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Notably, our index performances are market cap weighted, meaning larger cap stocks have a greater impact on index return than small cap stocks. In Q4, only two stocks in the Newspaper index, NYT and NWSA, posted positive returns. These were the largest cap stocks in the index. In Q4, NWSA and NYT were up 22.4% and 18.9%, respectively. For full year 2023, four out of the five companies in the Newspaper index posted positive returns, the strongest performers were NYT and NWSA, up 50.9% and 34.9%, respectively. The Broadcast TV Index was up a modest 5.2% for the quarter and down 11% over the past year. The worst performing index over the last quarter was the Radio Broadcast index, down on 10.9%, as Illustrated in Figure #6 Traditional Media 3-Month Performance. Additionally, the Radio stocks were the worst performing group over the last year as well, down 34.9%. While the Radio Broadcast Index and Broadcast TV Index had a tough year in 2023, we believe both indices should improve in 2024. We highlight some of our favorites in the sector commentary below. 

Figure #6 Traditional Media 3-month Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Figure #7 Traditional Media LTM Performance

Source: Capital IQ

Television Broadcast

Looking For A Better 2024

The Television industry had a tough year with soft core advertising and the absence of the year earlier Political advertising. Television revenues are estimated to have declined as much as 20% in 2023 inclusive of the absence of year earlier Political advertising. Total core television advertising is expected to have decline 3% in 2023, which excludes Political advertising, reflecting disproportionately weak National advertising and resilient Local advertising. Importantly, Television advertising accounts for less than 50% of total television revenue, with Retransmission revenue largely accounting for the balance. With growth in Retransmission revenue, we estimate that total Television revenue declined roughly 10% in 2023. 

We believe that revenue trends will improve in 2024 for the TV industry, supported by an influx of Political advertising and moderating trends in core National advertising. Nonetheless, given the exceptional Political advertising year that is expected, core advertising is expected to decline in 2024, with some advertising being displaced by the large volume of Political. We anticipate that Core advertising will decline roughly 2.3% in 2024, with total TV advertising up nearly 30% (reflective of the influx of Political). Total Television revenue, which includes Retransmission revenues, are expected to increase roughly 20%. 

We believe that the TV industry has some long term fundamental headwinds, which include continued weak audience trends, cord cutting (which adversely affects Retransmission revenue growth opportunities), and shifts in National advertising toward Digital and Influence Marketing. Offsetting these trends are Connected TV and prospects for new revenue opportunities offered by the new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0. Importantly, the very high margin Political advertising every even year allows the industry to reduce debt and/or return capital to shareholders.

Our closely followed Television companies, E.W. Scripps and Gray TV, are among the two companies best positioned to benefit for the influx of Political advertising. Both are in swing markets that should disproportionately benefit from Political. In the case of E.W. Scripps, the company has a developed business model that benefits from cord cutting as consumers switch toward Connected TV and Over The Air Networks. Furthermore, in 2024, E.W. Scripps will benefit from double digit growth in Retransmission revenue as 75% of its subscribers have been renegotiated at significantly higher rates. Both companies, E.W. Scripps and Gray, are highly debt levered. As such, we believe that paring down debt should improve the equity value of the shares in 2024. In addition, we believe that both companies have compelling stock valuations. While the SSP and the GTN shares trade near the industry averages, the industry averages are well below past cycles. We would look for multiple expansion as economic prospects improve. At the same time, as free cash flow improves from high margin Political advertising, debt reduction should allow for a swing toward improved equity values. As such, the shares of SSP and GTN represent a compelling way to play both an improved economic outlook towards the second half of 2024 and influx of high margin Political advertising. Again, SSP has the benefit of strong growth of Retransmission revenue, as well. 

E.W. Scripps (SSP): One of the nation’s largest TV station broadcasters and unique play on the trend toward cable cord cutting. Scripps has nationwide over the air networks that can be viewed with a digital antennae that do not require a cable or satellite service. Given its orientation toward national networks, the company is expected to disproportionately benefit from the influx of national advertising. In addition, the company’s TV stations are located in swing States and in hotly contested markets that should benefit from the influx of Political advertising in 2024. We believe the level of Political will be closely watched by investors as the high margin Political advertising will allow the company to aggressive pare down debt, assuaging investor concerns over its current leverage. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here. 

Gray Television (GTN): One of the nation’s largest television broadcasters, the company has historically led the industry in terms of revenue  and disproportionately benefits from the influx of Political advertising. In addition, the company is expected to benefit in 2024 from its investment in the development of its studios in the Atlanta area called Assembly Atlanta. The company has yet to disclose the full benefit of the current lease arrangement. We believe that the value of the development and the stream of lease payments are not fully reflected in the current stock valuation. Furthermore, the company is expected to aggressively pare down debt through the influx of high margin Political advertising and the lease payments. In our view, the shares should react well to debt reduction. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Figure #8 TV Industry Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

Radio Broadcast

Debt Struggles

Based on our estimates and our closely followed companies, Radio advertising is expected to have decreased 5.5% for the full year 2023. Illustrated in Figure #9 Radio Advertising Revenue. This decline reflected the adverse impact of rising interest rates and significant inflation, which hurt many consumer oriented advertising categories, as well as financials. In addition, we believe that Radio struggled with some headwinds from declines in listenership, as many consumers continue to work remotely post Covid pandemic. Local advertising was more resilient than National, which tends to be more economically sensitive. We estimate that Local advertising was down 6%, while National was down 19%. The results are expected to reflect the absence of Political advertising from the year earlier biennial elections. Digital advertising was a bright spot, increasing 6%, largely offsetting the decline in National revenue. 

Figure #9 Radio Advertising Revenue 

Source: Statista

Looking forward toward 2024, we expect Radio advertising trends to improve throughout the year, with the expectation that December 2023 may have been the trough for this economic cycle. Both Local and National advertisers should begin to anticipate improved economic conditions with the expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates late in the first quarter. Even though the economy is anticipated to continue to weaken in the first half 2024, advertisers may advertise to drive customer traffic and in anticipation of improved economic conditions. We anticipate that the year will start off weak, with the first quarter 2024 revenue expected to be down, but a more moderate decrease between 3% to 4%. Notably, the industry does not receive a significant amount of Political advertising in the first quarter.

In 2024, we expect consumer spending to soften, which will have an adverse affect on consumer oriented advertising, particularly Retail. Auto advertising is expected to buck that trend. In our view, auto manufacturers and dealers will likely step up advertising and promotions to lure consumers. Assuming lowered interest rates, we expect that Financial advertising should improve in the second half of the year, as well. Revenues are expected to be second half weighted, with improving core advertising trends and the benefit of the influx of Political advertising. Radio does not typically receive a significant amount of Political advertising, but it accounts for a meaningful 3% of total core advertising for the year. Political advertising largely falls in the third and fourth quarter. In addition, National advertising trends should improve in the second half as economic prospects improve. Digital advertising is expected to grow but more moderately than 2023, which is expected to be up 6%. We believe that Digital will increase near 5%, but some companies that have less developed Digital businesses, should report faster growth. 

In total, based on our closely followed companies, we anticipate Radio revenue growth of 5.6% in 2024. Our estimate is inclusive of our Political advertising outlook.

We encourage investors to take a basket approach to investing in the industry, as most companies should benefit from the improving fundamentals in 2024. Below we have outlined some of the investment highlights for our closely followed Radio companies. In addition, Figure #10 Radio Industry Comparables highlight the stock valuations of the sector, which are currently trading at recession type valuations levels. 

Beasley Broadcast (BBGI): We believe that the company will reflect above average revenue and cash flow growth in 2024 due to the prospect of fast growth of its developing Digital businesses. Digital accounted for roughly 20% of the company’s total revenues in 2023 and are expected to be a key revenue driver in 2024. In addition, the company’s stations are located in large, swing State markets and should benefit from the influx of Political advertising. The company does carry above average debt loads, but we expect that the company will pare down debt by roughly $20 million from current levels. The company’s target debt levels are $250 million by year end. For a Beasley Broadcast report and important disclosures, please click here.

Cumulus Media (CMLS): The company is viewed as a leveraged play on a recovery in National advertising. Given the company’s Network business, which is virtually all National advertising, roughly 50% of total company revenues are derived from National advertising. This is significantly higher than the industry average, which is roughly 12%. National advertising is expected to rebound as economic prospects improve in 2024. In addition, the company should disproportionately benefit from the influx of Political advertising. We estimate $23.5 million in high margin Political advertising, a 20% increase from the last Presidential election cycle, expected to total roughly 3.7% of 2024 advertising revenues. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Entravision (EVC): Radio represents a small portion of total company revenues as the company has transitioned toward a Digital agency business model. Over 80% of total company revenues comes from its Digital businesses. As such, Entravision should grow faster than Radio industry averages as its Digital business is expected to grow. Furthermore, Entravision has one of the best balance sheets in the industry, expected to have virtually no net debt by year end. Finally, the EVC shares are among the cheapest in the industry, as highlighted in Figure #    Radio Industry Comparables. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Saga Communications (SGA): Historically, the company has led the industry in terms of revenue and cash flow growth. Over the past few years, it lost that honor as the industry moved to expand its fast growing digital operations. Most recently, Saga has regained its top spot as it has developed its Digital operations and non traditional radio revenue. While the industry has moved Digital to account for as much as 50% of total company revenues, Saga currently is at a more modest   %. Nonetheless, its nascent Digital operations are growing at a rapid rate, allowing total company revenues to exceed industry averages. Saga has one of the best balance sheets in the industry, with a large cash position and virtually no debt. Furthermore, the company pays an attractive dividend, and, as such, represents an attractive total return potential. The SGA shares are largely undiscovered, trading at one of the cheapest stock valuation in the radio sector. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Salem Media Group (SALM): Salem has a relatively stable Radio advertising business given its orientation toward the sale of long and short form block programming. Recently, the company tripped a debt covenant which created investor anxiety over its high debt leverage. The company recently announced that it plans to sell its Salem Church Products division for $30 million, it refinanced its revolver, and announced the sale of its money losing book publishing company, Regnery. In addition to these measures, the company has streamlined its management team and lowered costs. Recently, the company decided to delist, rather than seek alternatives to remain on its current exchange. In addition, the company has not closed on its planned sale of its Church Products division. As such, we believe that the company has significant hurdles to put itself on a path toward free cash flow generation and debt reduction. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Townsquare Media (TSQ): Townsquare has led the charge toward a Digital transformation, with over 50% of its revenues from its Digital businesses. Importantly, its Digital businesses have margins are in line or better than its traditional Broadcast business. While a segment of its Digital business declined in 2023, we expect that it will regain its revenue momentum in 2024, particularly in the second half. At that time, the company is expected to benefit from an influx of high margin Political advertising, as well. We believe that the company has one of the best Digital strategies in the industry and is widely viewed as the model for other aspiring Digital divisions at other Radio companies. The shares trade below that of its industry peers, in spite of its above average revenue and cash flow growth. For research reports and important disclosures, please click here.

Figure #10 Radio Industry Comparables 

Source: Noble estimates & Company filings

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All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “we”, “us”, or “our” are solely the responsibility of Noble Capital Markets, Inc.(“Noble”) and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with the company mentioned in this report. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. All information provided herein is based on public and non-public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed. No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio. The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on its own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision.

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ANALYST CREDENTIALS, PROFESSIONAL DESIGNATIONS, AND EXPERIENCE

Senior Equity Analyst focusing on Basic Materials & Mining. 20 years of experience in equity research. BA in Business Administration from Westminster College. MBA with a Finance concentration from the University of Missouri. MA in International Affairs from Washington University in St. Louis.
Named WSJ ‘Best on the Street’ Analyst and Forbes/StarMine’s “Best Brokerage Analyst.”
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Noble Capital Markets Media Sector Review – Q4 2023

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

INTERNET AND DIGITAL MEDIA COMMENTARY

Internet & Digital Media Stocks – Investors Rewarded with Exceptional Returns in 2023

A year ago, we wrote that we were seeing signs of life in the Internet and Digital Media sectors and saw the possibility of a better year ahead.  Not only was it a good year, but it was a great year for investors in these sectors.  The S&P 500 was up 25% in 2023, a healthy return but one that pales in comparison to the performance of each of Noble’s Internet and Digital Media Indices.  Noble’s Social Media Index finished the year up 172%, followed by Noble’s MarTech (+83%), AdTech (+67%), Digital Media (+58%) and Video Gaming (+29%) indices.

Noble’s indices are market cap driven, and last quarter we noted that while each sector performed well, it was primarily due to the largest cap stocks in each of them.  In 4Q 2023, we saw that strength broaden and deepen, with mid- and small-cap stocks also joining the “party”. 

STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: INTERNET AND DIGITAL MEDIA

Interestingly, this increase in performance from mid- and smaller cap stocks did not result in a material outperformance relative to the S&P 500 in the fourth quarter. The S&P 500 increased by 11% in 4Q 2023, but only two of these indices outperformed the broader market during this period: Noble’s MarTech Index (+24%) and Social Media Index (+19%).  Noble’s Video Gaming Index (+11%) was up in-line with the S&P 500, while Noble’s Digital Media (+9%) and Ad Tech (+0%) indices underperformed.  In short, while the mega cap stocks continued to outperform, this outperformance was matched or exceeded by mid- and small-cap stocks in the fourth quarter. 

Meta, Snap, and Grindr All Lead the Social Media Index Higher

Noble Indices are market cap weighted, and we attribute the relative strength of the Social Media Index to its largest constituent, Meta (META, +194%).  Meta shares were up 194% for the year, including 18% in the fourth quarter.  As noted before in this newsletter, Meta shares bottomed in November 2022 at $89 per share and began to recover when management decided to no longer invest as heavily in the metaverse and instead ordered a major cost-cutting initiative that included thousands of layoffs and re-focused the company’s resources toward new social media products (i.e., Threads) and generative AI (artificial intelligence). 

Other social media stocks such as Snap (SNAP, +89%) and Grindr (GRND, also +89%) significantly outperformed.  Snap shares increased as the company’s revenue returned to growth in the third quarter after declines in the first and second quarter of the year.  Grindr went public via SPAC in 4Q 2022 and its shares stumbled out of the gate but performed exceptionally well, especially in 4Q 2023 (+53%) as the company continued to post 40%+ revenue growth and 50%+ EBITDA growth.  There is no better recipe for share price appreciation than beating Street estimates and raising guidance.

MarTech Stocks Recover Strongly After Challenging 2022

Investors in the marketing technology sector were also rewarded in 2023.  Noble’s MarTech Index increased by 83%, led by Shopify (SHOP, +124%), Hubspot (HUBS, +111%), Salesforce (CRM, +99%) and Adobe (+77%).  MarTech stocks suffered in 2022 from a market reset in revenue multiples that began when the Fed began raising rates.

Another reason Noble’s MarTech Index was down 52% in 2022 was that most every company in this sector did not have operating profits or positive EBITDA, as companies in this sector, like most SaaS-based businesses were being operated to maximize revenues, not profitability.   MarTech companies appear to have gotten the message in 2023 and made great strides in terms of operating profits.  On average, operating margins significantly improved from low double-digit negative margins in 2022, to low single digit negative margins in 2023.

AdTech Stocks Rebounded Strongly in 2023

Noble’s Ad Tech Index increased by 67% in 2023, and returns were relatively widespread with more than half the stocks in the index posting double digit returns, led by Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT, +514%), AppLovin (APP, +278%), Inuvo (+92%), Double Verify (DSP, +68%), Interactive Ad Science (IAS, +64%) and The Trade Desk (+61%).  Shares of Direct Digital Holdings increased by 481% in the fourth quarter alone, as the company reported significantly stronger than expected revenue and EBITDA and guided to significantly higher than expected 4Q 2023 revenue and EBITDA as well.  Companies such as Double Verify, and Interactive Ad Science likely benefited as their ad platforms are designed to verify inventory and reduce fraud and waste.  The Trade Desk has also developed initiatives to address “cookie deprecation” (in which Google will end support for third-party cookies, or tracking tags).  It would appear that investors in the second half of 2024, investors sought out Ad Tech companies that are well positioned for this change. 

A Widespread Recovery in the Digital Media Sector

Noble’s Digital Media Index increased by 58% in 2023 with 8 of the 12 stocks in the index posting double digit stock price returns, led by Spotify (SPOT, +138%), Travelzoo (TZOO, +114%), Fubo (FUBO, +83%), and Netflix (NFLX, +65%).  Spotify posted double digit revenue growth while keeping expenses in check which resulted in a solid operating profit in 2023.  The company is making progress on converting its growing user base to a healthy profit.  Consensus Street estimates have Spotify’s EBITDA improving from a loss of  nearly $250 million in 2022 to a gain of $650 million in 2024.  Meanwhile, Travelzoo appears to be firing on all cylinders with revenue increasing by double digits in each of their U.S., European and Jack’s Fight Club businesses.  Travelzoo appears to be in the sweet spot of the economic cycle in which demand for travel is strong, but not so strong that the company’s clients (airlines, hotels, cruise lines, car rental companies, etc.) don’t need to advertise to drive incremental demand. 

We attribute much of the strong performance in 2023 in the Internet and Digital Media sectors to a change in investor sentiment most likely based upon the view that rather than go into recession, the U.S. economy may be more likely to incur a soft landing.  How this plays out in 2023 is likely to be the key to the performance of these industries in 2024.

2023 M&A – Deal Activity Flat while Deal Values Decline by Nearly 80% 

It should not surprise anyone that M&A in the Internet and Digital Media sectors was down in 2023.  For starters, 2022 was a very strong year for M&A, with deal values up 71% over 2021 levels.  On top of this difficult comparison, the M&A market in 2023 had to contend with numerous headwinds, including geopolitical tensions, inflation, rising interest rates, increased regulatory scrutiny and an uncertain economic outlook.  In light of all of these obstacles, it is surprising then, that the number of deals we monitored in the Internet and Digital Media sectors in 2023 was flat compared to 2022 (685 deals announced in 2023 vs. 683 deals announced in 2022).  This result would appear to be heroic were it not for the fact that total M&A deal values were down 79% in 2023 ($51 billion in announced deal values in 2023 vs. $243 billion in announced deal values in 2022).  Given the aforementioned headwinds, perhaps it is not surprising that the animal spirits to conduct large transactions waned in 2023. 

The biggest difference in the announced deal values was the number of “scaled transactions” in 2022 vs. 2023.  A year ago we called 2022 the Year of the Mega Deal.  For example, the were 6 announced deals in the Internet and Digital Media sectors with deal values exceeding $10 billion in 2022 vs. only one deal in 2023.  In 2022, Microsoft announced its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard and Elon Musk announced his $46 billion acquisition of Twitter.  In 2023, the only “scaled transaction” in the Internet and Digital Media sectors was the $14.6 billion acquisition of online classifieds company Adevinta ASA from a consortium of U.S. based private equity firms (General Atlantic, Permira and Blackstone). 

4Q 2023 M&A:  Greenshoots? 

Fortunately, there was a silver lining in the fourth quarter of 2023.  Deal activity picked up substantially on a sequential basis.  We monitored 199 announced transactions in 4Q 2023, up 50% over the 132 announced deals 3Q 2023.  Deal values in the fourth quarter of 2023 were also encouraging.  We monitored $20.1 billion in announced deal values last quarter, up 132% from the $8.7 billion in announced deals in 3Q 2023, as shown in the chart below.

From a deal activity perspective, the most active sectors we tracked were Digital Content (56 deals), Marketing Tech (54 deals), Agency & Analytics (46 deals), followed by eCommerce (16 deals) and Information (16 deals).  From a deal value perspective, the Digital Content sector had the largest dollar value of transactions ($15.8 billion, driven by the Adevinta deal), followed by MarTech ($2.2 billion), and AdTech ($1 billion). 

The largest deals by dollar value in the fourth quarter of 2023 are shown below.    

With stock prices recovering and the prospects for a soft landing improving, we believe the stage is being set for an improvement in the M&A environment in 2024.  A key to this outlook will be how soon and how fast the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates.  If inflation remains stubborn and rates remain higher for longer, then the recovery in M&A deal values is likely to take longer.   However, if rates begin to ease, it will remove a key impediment to closing transactions in 2024.

TRADITIONAL MEDIA COMMENTARY

The following is an excerpt from a recent note by Noble’s Media Equity Research Analyst Michael Kupinski

Overview – Optimism for a Good 2024 

The fortunes of advertising-based companies are driven by the economy and the health of the consumer. As such, we start this report with our take on the economy in 2024. On December 4th, at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) in Boca Raton, Florida, Noblecon19 hosted an economic panel to discuss the business environment outlook for 2024. The economic panel consisted of a diverse group of industry professionals with a wide range of expertise and experience. In our economic outlook for 2024, we take into consideration the perspective of Jose Torres, Senior Economist at Interactive Brokers.

Mr. Torres highlighted 2023 as a resilient year for consumer spending, which was driven by excess pandemic savings accumulated in 2020 and 2021. Mr. Torres anticipates a slowdown in consumer spending and a strong labor market in 2024. Notably, he believes a resilient labor market will keep consumers spending and will keep the country from falling into a recession. Additionally, Mr. Torres highlighted that Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) annualized inflation over the last six months is running near 2.5%, which is very close to the Fed’s goal of 2.0%. With moderating inflation pressures, Mr. Torres highlighted that the Fed is likely to cut rates in March of 2024, which would be beneficial for small and mid-cap companies. While Mr. Torres largely has a positive outlook for 2024 and beyond, a point of concern was the federal government’s growing interest expense on debt, he noted that the government will eventually have to reduce spending or accept 3% – 3.5% inflation over the long-term.

The general U.S. economy is expected to soften in 2024, particularly in the first half, with a prospect that the economy could slip into recession. Our economic scenario for 2024 anticipates the economy will soften in the first half of the year and rebound in the second half of the year due to the prospect of a lower interest rate environment and resilient labor market.

The video of the Economic Perspectives panel may be viewed here. 

STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE: TRADITIONAL MEDIA

Small Cap Cycle?

Small cap investors have gone through a rough period. For the past several years, investors have anticipated an economic downturn. With these concerns, investors turned toward “safe haven” large cap stocks, which by and large can weather economic downturns and have significant trading volume should investors need to sell the stock. Notably, there is a sizable valuation disparity between the two classes, large cap and small cap, one of the largest since 1999. Some of the small cap stocks we follow trade at a modest 2.5 times Enterprise Value to EBITDA, compared with large cap valuations as high as 15 times. We believe the disparity is due to higher risk in the small cap stocks, given that some companies may not be cash flow positive, have capital needs, or have limited share float.

However, investors seem to have overlooked small cap stocks with favorable fundamentals. While small cap stocks are more speculative than large caps, many are growing revenues and cash flow, have capable balance sheets, and/or are cash flow positive. In our view, the valuation gap should resolve itself over time for attractive emerging growth stocks. Some market strategists suggest that small cap stocks trade at the most undervalued in the market.

Dan Thelen, Managing Director of small cap equity at Ancora Advisors, highlighted the valuation gap between small cap and large cap stocks during the economic panel at Noblecon 19. Mr. Thelen noted that investors haven’t recognized the risk mitigation efforts small cap companies have undertaken in the high interest rate environment. He believes that changes small cap companies have implemented are not reflected in stock prices and should be a tailwind moving forward.

2024 Advertising Outlook

In our advertising outlook for 2024, we take into consideration the perspective of Lisa Knutson, Chief Operating Officer (COO) of E.W Scripps. Ms. Knutson is on the frontline of the economy as one of the largest TV broadcasters in the country. As a speaker on the Noblecon 19 economic panel, she depicted the local and national advertising markets as a tale of two cities. Notably, Ms. Knutson highlighted resilience in local advertising and sequential improvement over the past few quarters in the auto advertising category. Additionally, she highlighted green shoots in local advertising, particularly in the services, home improvement and retail advertising categories. Importantly, political ad spend for the 2024 election cycle is expected to be approximately $10 billion, which is roughly a 13% increase from 2020.  About half of the high margin political advertising dollars are expected to be spent with television broadcasters.

Digital Advertising – Decelerating Revenue Growth, But Faster Than Other Advertising Categories

Digital advertising has been growing rapidly over the past several years, bolstered by chord-cutting trends and generally, by an increasingly digital world. Digital Advertising includes various categories of advertising, such as audio, video, influencer, search, banner, and others. According to Statista, U.S. Digital Advertising spending is expected to grow at 15% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), from 2017-2028, from $90.1 billion to $402.1 billion. The chart below  illustrates U.S. Digital Advertising Spend from 2017 to 2028, which is inclusive of the various different sub-categories of digital advertising.

Specifically in 2024, U.S. digital advertising is expected to grow a healthy 10% above 2023 levels, according to Statista. There are some categories of digital advertising that are expected to grow especially fast in 2024, such as Connected TV (CTV) advertising, programmatic advertising, and influencer advertising. All three categorizations of digital advertising are estimated to have above-average growth in 2024. According to Statista, influencer advertising in the U.S. will grow at 14% in 2024, while, according to eMarketer, U.S. programmatic and CTV advertising will grow at 13% and 17%, respectively.

In our view, there are several key factors strengthening these verticals. For example, influencer advertising allows brands to reach younger demographics through personalities those demographics trust. Moreover, during a time when there is uncertainty around the future of cookies and other forms of User IDs for targeted advertising, influencer advertising offers an alternative vehicle for audience targeting. Google has indicated plans to no longer use cookies to deliver advertising in 2024, although the implementation of this plan has been delayed before. Additionally, we believe chord cutting is major factor in the growth of connected TV. We believe this could be a strong growth vertical for programmatic digital advertising. 

Traditional Media

The Newspaper Index was the only traditional media sector that outperformed the general market in the past quarter and trailing 12 months.   In the latest quarter, Newspaper stocks outperformed the general market, up 20% versus down 11% for the general market as measured by the S&P 500 Index. Notably, our index performances are market cap weighted, meaning larger cap stocks have a greater impact on index return than small cap stocks. In Q4, only two stocks in the Newspaper index, NYT and NWSA, posted positive returns. These are the largest cap stocks in the index. In Q4, NWSA and NYT were up 22% and 19%, respectively. For full-year 2023, four out of the five companies in the Newspaper index posted positive returns, with  the strongest performers being NYT and NWSA, up 51% and 35%, respectively. The Broadcast TV Index was up a modest 5% for the fourth quarter and down 11% over the past year. The worst performing index over the last quarter was the Radio Broadcast index, down on 11% in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the Radio Index was the worst performing group over the last year as well, down 35%. While the Radio Broadcast Index and Broadcast TV Index had a tough year in 2023, we believe both indices should improve in 2024.

Broadcast Television

The Television industry had a tough year with soft core advertising and the absence of the year earlier political advertising. Television revenues are estimated to have declined as much as 20% in 2023 inclusive of the absence of year earlier political advertising. Total core television advertising is expected to have declined 3% in 2023, which excludes Political advertising, reflecting disproportionately weak national advertising and resilient local advertising. Importantly, television advertising accounts for less than 50% of total television revenue, with retransmission revenue largely accounting for the balance. With growth in retransmission revenue, we estimate that total television revenue declined roughly 10% in 2023. 

We believe that revenue trends will improve in 2024 for the TV industry, supported by an influx of political advertising and moderating trends in core national advertising. Nonetheless, given the exceptional political advertising year that is expected, core advertising is expected to decline in 2024, with some advertising being displaced by the large volume of political. We anticipate that core advertising will decline roughly 2.3% in 2024, with total TV advertising up nearly 30% (including the influx of Political). Total television revenue, which includes retransmission revenues, are expected to increase roughly 20%. 

We believe that the TV industry has some long-term fundamental headwinds, which include continued weak audience trends, cord cutting (which adversely affects retransmission revenue growth opportunities) and shifts in national advertising toward digital advertising. Offsetting these trends are Connected TV and prospects for new revenue opportunities offered by the new broadcast standard, ATSC 3.0. Importantly, the very high margin political advertising every even year allows the industry to reduce debt and/or return capital to shareholders.

Broadcast Radio

Based on our estimates and our closely followed companies, radio advertising is expected to have decreased 5.5% for the full year 2023 as illustrated in the chart below.   This decline reflected the adverse impact of rising interest rates and significant inflation, which hurt many consumer-oriented advertising categories, as well as financials. In addition, we believe that radio struggled with some headwinds from declines in listenership, as many consumers continue to work remotely post Covid pandemic. Local advertising was more resilient than national advertising, which tends to be more economically sensitive.

We estimate that local advertising was down 6%, while national was down 19%. The results are expected to reflect the absence of political advertising from the year earlier biennial elections. Broadcast digital advertising was a bright spot, increasing 6%, largely offsetting the decline in national revenue. 

Looking forward toward 2024, we expect radio advertising trends to improve throughout the year, with the expectation that December 2023 may have been the trough for this economic cycle. Both local and national advertisers should begin to anticipate improved economic conditions with the expectation that the Fed will lower interest rates late in the first quarter. Even though the economy is anticipated to continue to weaken in the first half 2024, advertisers may advertise to drive customer traffic in anticipation of improved economic conditions. We anticipate that the year will start off weak, with the first quarter 2024 revenue expected to be down, but at a more moderate decrease of between 3% to 4%. Notably, the industry does not receive a significant amount of political advertising in the first quarter.

In 2024, we expect consumer spending to soften, which will have an adverse effect on consumer-oriented advertising, particularly retail. Auto advertising is expected to buck that trend. In our view, auto manufacturers and dealers will likely increase advertising and promotions to lure consumers. Assuming lowered interest rates, we expect that the financial category should improve in the second half of the year as well. Revenues are expected to be second half weighted, with improving core advertising trends and the benefit of the influx of political advertising.

Radio does not typically receive a significant amount of political advertising, but it accounts for a meaningful 3% of total core advertising for the year. Political advertising largely falls in the third and fourth quarter. In addition, national advertising trends should improve in the second half as economic prospects improve. Digital advertising is expected to grow but more moderately than 2023, which is expected to be up 6%. We believe that Digital will increase near 5%, but some companies that have less developed digital businesses, should report faster growth. 

In total, based on our closely followed companies, we anticipate Radio revenue growth of 5.6% in 2024. Our estimate is inclusive of our political advertising outlook.

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Noble Capital Markets Media Newsletter Q4 2023

This newsletter was prepared and provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc. For any questions and/or requests regarding this news letter, please contact Chris Ensley

DISCLAIMER

All statements or opinions contained herein that include the words “ we”,“ or “ are solely the responsibility of NOBLE Capital Markets, Inc and do not necessarily reflect statements or opinions expressed by any person or party affiliated with companies mentioned in this report Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice All information provided herein is based on public and non public information believed to be accurate and reliable, but is not necessarily complete and cannot be guaranteed No judgment is hereby expressed or should be implied as to the suitability of any security described herein for any specific investor or any specific investment portfolio The decision to undertake any investment regarding the security mentioned herein should be made by each reader of this publication based on their own appraisal of the implications and risks of such decision This publication is intended for information purposes only and shall not constitute an offer to buy/ sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any security mentioned in this report, nor shall there be any sale of the security herein in any state or domicile in which said offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such state or domicile This publication and all information, comments, statements or opinions contained or expressed herein are applicable only as of the date of this publication and subject to change without prior notice Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Please refer to the above PDF for a complete list of disclaimers pertaining to this newsletter.

Release – FAT Brands Makes West Coast Debut of Co-Branded Johnny Rockets and Hurricane Wings

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on FAT

January 12, 2024

Iconic Burger and Wing Pairing Plants Roots in Los Angeles Area

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — FAT Brands Inc. announces the grand opening of its inaugural West Coast co-branded Johnny Rockets and Hurricane Wings restaurant. Located at 1129 S. Fremont Avenue, Ste. E, Alhambra, Calif., the new location marks a milestone in the expansion of the co-branded model that brings together Johnny Rockets’ iconic burgers and Hurricane Grill & Wings’ fiery selection of beach-inspired wing flavors.

“Following the resounding success of our first Johnny Rockets and Hurricane Wings co-branded restaurant in Washington D.C., we’re thrilled to introduce this unique concept to the West Coast,” said Jake Berchtold, COO of FAT Brands’ Fast Casual Division. “Similar to Fatburger and Buffalo’s Express, Johnny Rockets and Hurricane Wings have great synergy together—both family-oriented brands with loyal followings. We anticipate a lot of excitement surrounding this opening in the Alhambra community.”

The first Johnny Rockets restaurant opened June 6, 1986, on the iconic Melrose Avenue in Los Angeles. Since that time, the chain’s timeless all-American brand has connected with customers across the U.S. and in 25 other countries around the globe. Guests visiting the all-new location can enjoy a classic Johnny Rockets’ meal, a juicy, cooked-to-order burger paired with crispy fries and a decadent, hand-spun shake.

Patrons looking for some heat can add Hurricane Wings’ classic bone-in and boneless jumbo wings to their meal. From Firecracker and Mango Habanero to Garlic Parm and Teriyaki, there is a wing flavor fit for every wing craving on the heat scale.

A grand opening celebration will be held on Jan. 12 to commemorate the new restaurant, which will kick off with a ribbon cutting with the Alhambra Chamber of Commerce at 11:00 a.m. Additionally, the first 100 hungry fans can score a free single original burger with no purchase necessary. Customers who miss the opening rush can stop by all day for free fries with any purchase.

The Alhambra Johnny Rockets and Hurricane Wings is located at 1129 S. Fremont Avenue, Suite E, Alhambra, CA, and is open from 10:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. daily.

About FAT (Fresh. Authentic. Tasty.) Brands
FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 18 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Smokey Bones, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit fatbrands.com.

About Johnny Rockets
Founded in 1986 on Melrose Avenue in Los Angeles, Johnny Rockets is a world-renowned international franchise that offers high-quality, innovative menu items including Certified Angus Beef® cooked-to-order hamburgers, veggie burgers, chicken sandwiches, crispy fries, and rich, delicious hand-spun shakes and malts. With over 250 locations in over 25 countries around the globe, this dynamic lifestyle brand offers friendly service and upbeat music contributing to the chain’s signature atmosphere of relaxed, casual fun. For more information, visit www.johnnyrockets.com. 

MEDIA CONTACT:
Erin Mandzik, FAT Brands
emandzik@fatbrands.com
860-212-6509

JP Morgan Reigns Supreme with $50B Record Banking Profit in Tumultuous 2023

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

JPMorgan Chase, the nation’s largest bank, reported a 15% decline in fourth quarter 2023 earnings on Friday, weighed down by a massive $2.9 billion fee related to the government takeover of failed regional banks last year.

The bank posted profits of $9.31 billion, or $3.04 per share, for the final three months of 2023. This compared to earnings of $10.9 billion, or $3.33 per share, in the same period a year earlier. Excluding the regional banking crisis fee and other one-time items, JPMorgan said it earned $3.97 per share in the fourth quarter.

Total revenue for the quarter rose 12% to $39.94 billion, slightly above analyst forecasts. The jump was driven by the bank’s acquisition of First Republic Bank in late 2023, higher net interest income, and increased investment banking fees.

“The U.S. economy continues to be resilient, with consumers still spending, and markets currently expect a soft landing,” said JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon in a statement. “These significant and somewhat unprecedented forces cause us to remain cautious.”

Dimon cited high inflation, rising interest rates, out-of-control government spending, supply chain disruptions, the war in Ukraine, and tensions in the Middle East as potential threats to the economic outlook.

For the full year 2023, JPMorgan posted record profits of nearly $50 billion, including $4.1 billion from its acquisition of First Republic. The deal instantly gave JPMorgan a leading position in serving wealthy clients in California and other coastal markets.

Smaller Competitors Squeezed

While JPMorgan has deftly navigated the rising rate environment, smaller regional banks have struggled as the Federal Reserve hiked rates aggressively to combat inflation. Many were caught holding lower-yielding assets funded by higher-cost deposits. This squeezed net interest margins.

The regional banking crisis came to a head in early 2023 as a wave of defaults and bank seizures overwhelmed the FDIC insurance fund. JPMorgan and other large banks were handed the bill, with the FDIC levying $18 billion in special fees on the industry to recapitalize the fund.

Specifically, JPMorgan paid a $2.9 billion fee in the fourth quarter related to the FDIC assessments. This was a major factor in the bank’s profit decline compared to a year ago.

JPMorgan Cautious Despite Solid Year

Despite posting record full-year earnings, Dimon and JPMorgan management struck a cautious tone in their earnings release. While U.S. consumers remain resilient for now, risks are mounting.

Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of resolution. Middle East conflicts continue to elevate oil prices. And the U.S. government is racking up huge deficits, with no political will to cut spending.

For banks, this backdrop could pressure lending activity, loan performance, and capital levels. Mortgage rates are already above 7%, denting the housing market. Credit card delinquencies are edging higher. Corporate debt looks vulnerable as businesses face slower growth and input cost pressures.

All of this warrants a cautious stance until more clarity emerges later this year.

With JPMorgan having reported solid results for 2023, investors are now focused on the bank’s outlook for 2024 amid an expected shift in the interest rate environment.

On Friday’s earnings call, analysts will be listening closely to hear JPMorgan’s projections and commentary around key items that could impact performance this year:

  • Net interest income guidance for 2024. As the Fed cuts rates, net interest margins may compress. But higher loan volumes could offset this.
  • Expectations for credit costs and loan losses. While credit metrics are healthy now, a weaker economy could strain consumers and corporate borrowers.
  • Thoughts on impending hikes to capital requirements. Banks are hoping to reduce the impact of new rules on capital buffers.
  • M&A landscape. Does JPMorgan see opportunities for deals amid lower valuations?
  • Plans for excess capital deployment. Investors want to hear about potential increases in buybacks, dividends, and other uses.

JPMorgan entered 2024 with strong capital levels, putting it in position to boost shareholder returns even with new regulations. Investors will be listening to hear how management plans to leverage JPMorgan’s financial strength in the year ahead.

The bank’s 2024 outlook will be critical in determining whether its stock can build on last year’s big gains. JPMorgan was the top performing Dow stock in 2023, and investors are betting it can continue to drive profits in a more subdued rate environment.

Bit Digital (BTBT) – Bitcoin ETFs Approved

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, January 12, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Approval. The SEC approved rule changes to allow spot bitcoin ETFs that will enable regular investors to easily access the cryptocurrency. Already, some 11 firms, including such majors as Grayscale, BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton, are readying ETFs for the market. We believe the approval will drive demand, and hence pricing, for bitcoin higher.

Offering More Exposure and Regulation. With the approval of the bitcoin ETFs, the SEC is allowing for more institutional and retail investors exposure in bitcoin. A scenario whereby financial advisors recommend an allocation of a bitcoin ETF to investor portfolios is not a stretch, in our view. New regulation aimed at eliminating fraud and normalizing crypto also could soon follow.


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BlackRock Goes Big on Infrastructure in Transformational $12.5B GIP Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a move that could shape its future, BlackRock is making a huge bet on infrastructure investing with its $12.5 billion acquisition of specialist firm Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP).

The deal, announced Friday, includes $3 billion in cash and 12 million BlackRock shares to bring GIP’s $100+ billion infrastructure portfolio under its umbrella. With infrastructure booming globally, it plants BlackRock’s flag in an alternative asset class that offers stability and strong cash flows.

For Larry Fink, BlackRock’s founder and CEO, the deal provides a growth engine and caps a storied career. At 71 years old, Fink has not yet named his successor. This acquisition generates buzz around President Rob Kapito and COO Rob Goldstein as potential heirs apparent.

It also brings infrastructure investing veterans from GIP into BlackRock’s senior ranks. GIP Chairman Bayo Ogunlesi will join BlackRock’s board, while co-founders like ex-World Bank President Jim Yong Kim provide invaluable experience.

Why Infrastructure, Why Now?

Infrastructure has become increasingly attractive to institutional investors, particularly those with long-term liabilities to fund. The assets provide inflation protection, and the regulated nature of many infrastructure projects leads to predictable cash flows even during economic downturns.

Swelling demand for infrastructure also powers opportunity and growth. E-commerce and supply chain modernization require massive investment in logistics and transportation assets like airports, seaports, rail, and warehouses. The global energy transition is expected to necessitate trillions in spending on renewable power, battery storage, transmission lines, and more. And booming data usage makes digital infrastructure such as cell towers and data centers a near-certainty for major funding.

BlackRock saw the writing on the wall. With interest rates still relatively low by historical standards, it pulled the trigger on a transformative infrastructure deal rather than waiting for valuations to potentially rise further. GIP’s assets also provide diversification and inflation mitigation to complement BlackRock’s vast holdings of stocks and bonds.

For forward-thinking infrastructure investors, BlackRock’s whopper of a deal validates the long-term potential of the sector. And it positions the asset management titan to capitalize on infrastructure demand in both developed and emerging markets for decades to come.

Rejuvenating Revenues

The move into infrastructure also helps reinvigorate BlackRock’s revenues. With rock-bottom interest rates in recent years limiting fee income, BlackRock has searched for ways to accelerate growth. The company manages over $10 trillion in assets but has seen minimal increase in revenue since 2018.

Alternative investments like infrastructure represent a potential answer. They generally command higher management fees while also offering incentive fees based on investment performance. That combination bodes well for BlackRock’s results.

BlackRock has dipped its toe into alternatives over the past decade via real estate, hedge funds, private equity, and other strategies. But the GIP deal vaults infrastructure to the forefront of BlackRock’s alternatives platform. Expect heightened focus and more resources dedicated to infrastructure deals in the future.

With the Fed lifting rates this year, BlackRock also has a short-term revenue boost at its back. Higher interest rates allow BlackRock to charge more for managing cash and fixed income, its largest assets. BlackRock’s 8% increase in fourth quarter earnings served as an appetizer. The GIP acquisition is the main course in its long-term growth agenda.

Fink Caps Career with Legacy Deal

Larry Fink has run BlackRock since its inception in 1988, guiding it to become the world’s preeminent money manager. But the end of his tenure looms. While no retirement plans have been announced, Fink is 71 years old.

The GIP deal thus shapes up as a culminating move to put his stamp on BlackRock’s future. Shortly after the acquisition was announced, Fink said, “This is one of the most exciting transactions we’ve ever completed.”

What excites Fink and BlackRock is GIP’s expertise, global reach, and the long runway for infrastructure investing. Fink pulled the trigger on a legacy deal that can steer BlackRock’s course beyond when he ultimately steps down.

The acquisition also stirs up increased speculation on who could succeed the respected CEO. As BlackRock makes infrastructure integral to its future, the deal elevates infrastructure veterans like GIP Chairman Bayo Ogunlesi. COO Rob Kapito and President Rob Goldstein also see their standing boosted.

While the stock dipped slightly on Friday’s news, the deal primes BlackRock for sustainable growth. Shareholders will be monitoring the integration, but early reviews applaud Fink and BlackRock for their foresight and ability to execute.

Inflation Rises More Than Expected in December, Keeping Pressure on Fed

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Inflation picked up more than anticipated in December, dimming hopes that the Federal Reserve can soon pause its interest rate hiking campaign.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in December compared to the prior month, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected a 0.2% monthly gain.

On an annual basis, inflation hit 3.4% in December, accelerating from November’s 3.1% pace and surpassing expectations for 3.2% growth.

The uptick keeps the heat on the Fed to maintain its aggressive monetary tightening push to wrestle inflation back towards its 2% target. Investors were optimistic the central bank could stop hiking rates and even start cutting them in early 2023. But with inflation proving sticky, the Fed now looks poised to keep benchmark rates elevated for longer.

“This print is aligned with our view that disinflation ahead will be gradual with sticky services inflation,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, in a note.

Core Contributes to Inflation’s Persistence

Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the core CPI increased 0.3% in December, matching November’s rise. Core inflation rose 3.9% on an annual basis, up slightly from November’s 4.0% pace.

The core reading came in above estimates for a 0.2% monthly gain and 3.8% annual increase. The higher-than-expected core inflation indicates that even excluding food and gas, costs remain stubbornly high across many categories of goods and services.

Shelter costs are a major culprit, with rent indexes continuing to climb. The indexes for rent of shelter and owners’ equivalent rent both advanced 0.5% in December, equaling November’s rise.

Owners’ equivalent rent attempts to estimate how much homeowners would pay if they rented their properties. This category accounts for nearly one-third of the overall CPI index and over 40% of core CPI.

With shelter carrying so much weighting, persistent gains here will hinder inflation’s descent. Supply-demand imbalances in the housing market are delaying a moderation in rents.

Used Cars See Relief; Insurance Soars

Gently easing price pressures showed up in the used vehicle market. Used car and truck prices edged up just 0.1% in December following several months of declines. In November, used auto prices fell 0.2%.

New vehicle prices also cooled again, dipping 0.1% versus November’s 0.2% decrease. The reprieve comes after a long bout of supply shortages weighed on auto affordability.

But motor vehicle insurance blindsided with its largest annual increase since 1976, vaulting 20.3% higher over the last 12 months. In November, the insurance index had risen 8.7% year-over-year.

Food Index Fluctuates

Food prices have been especially volatile, reacting to supply chain disruptions and geopolitical developments like the war in Ukraine. The food index rose 0.1% in December, down from November’s 0.5% increase.

The index for food at home slid 0.1% last month, reversing course after four straight monthly gains. Egg prices spiked 8.9% higher in December, building on November’s 2.2% surge. The egg index has skyrocketed 60% year-over-year.

But not all grocery aisles saw rising costs. Fruits and vegetables turned cheaper, with the index dropping 0.6% as supply conditions improved.

Bigger Picture View

The faster-than-expected inflation in December keeps the Fed on course to drive rates higher for longer to manage price pressures. Markets are still betting officials will engineer a soft landing and start cutting interest rates by March.

But economists warn more patience is needed before declaring victory over inflation. “Overall, the December CPI report reminds us that inflation will decline on a bumpy road, not a smooth one,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.

Until clear, convincing signs of disinflation emerge, the Fed looks unlikely to pivot from its aggressive inflation-fighting stance. The CPI report illustrates the complexity of the inflation picture, with some components moderating while others heat up.

With shelter costs up over 6% annually and services inflation staying elevated, the Fed has reasons for caution. Moderately higher inflation won’t necessarily prompt more supersized rate hikes, but it may prolong the current restrictive policy.

Investors longing for a Fed “pivot” may need to wait a bit longer. But the war against inflation rages on, even with the December CPI report threatening to squash hopes of an imminent policy easing.

Release – 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. to Release its Fiscal 2024 Second Quarter Results on Thursday, February 1, 2024

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on FLWS

Jan 11, 2024

JERICHO, N.Y.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. (NASDAQ: FLWS) (the “Company”),a leading provider of gifts designed to help inspire customers to give more, connect more, and build more and better relationships, today announced that the Company will release financial results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter on Thursday, February 1, 2024. The press release will be issued prior to market opening and will be followed by a conference call with members of senior management at 8:00 a.m. (ET).

The conference call will be available via live webcast from the Investors section of the Company’s website at 1800flowersinc.com. A recording of the call will be posted on the website within two hours of the call’s completion. A telephonic replay of the call can be accessed beginning at 2:00 p.m. (ET) on February 1, 2024, through February 8, 2024, at: (US) 1-877-344-7529; (Canada) 855-669-9658; (International) 1-412-317-0088; enter conference ID: #4402294.

Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements:

Some of the statements contained in the Company’s scheduled Thursday, February 1, 2024, press release and conference call regarding its results for its fiscal 2024 second quarter, other than statements of historical fact, may be forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the applicable statements. For a more detailed description of these and other risk factors, please refer to the Company’s SEC filings including its Annual Reports and Forms 10K and 10Q available at the Investor Relations section of the Company’s website at 1800flowersinc.com. The Company expressly disclaims any intent or obligation to update any of the forward-looking statements made in the scheduled conference call and any recordings thereof, or in any of its SEC filings, except as may be otherwise stated by the Company.

About 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.

1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. is a leading provider of gifts designed to help inspire customers to give more, connect more, and build more and better relationships. The Company’s e-commerce business platform features an all-star family of brands, including: 1-800-Flowers.com®, 1-800-Baskets.com®, Cheryl’s Cookies®, Harry & David®, PersonalizationMall.com®, Shari’s Berries®, FruitBouquets.com®, Things Remembered®, Moose Munch®, The Popcorn Factory®, Wolferman’s Bakery®, Vital Choice®, and Simply Chocolate®. Through the Celebrations Passport® loyalty program, which provides members with free standard shipping and no service charge across our portfolio of brands, 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. strives to deepen relationships with customers. The Company also operates BloomNet®, an international floral and gift industry service provider offering a broad-range of products and services designed to help members grow their businesses profitably; Napco℠, a resource for floral gifts and seasonal décor; DesignPac Gifts, LLC, a manufacturer of gift baskets and towers; and Alice’s Table®, a lifestyle business offering fully digital livestreaming and on demand floral, culinary and other experiences to guests across the country. 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. was recognized among the top 5 on the National Retail Federation’s 2021 Hot 25 Retailers list, which ranks the nation’s fastest-growing retail companies, and was named to the Fortune 1000 list in 2022. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS. For more information, visit 1800flowersinc.com or follow @1800FLOWERSInc on Twitter.

FLWS-COMP
FLWS-FN

Investor:

Andy Milevoj

(516) 237-4617

amilevoj@1800flowers.com

Media:

Cherie Gallarello

cgallarello@1800flowers.com

Source: 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc.

Release – Bitcoin Depot Bolsters Expansion Efforts with the Addition of 13 New Sales Representatives Throughout the U.S.

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on BTM

January 11, 2024 8:30 AM EST

Expanded Sales Team Will Prioritize Strategic Expansion as Bitcoin Depot Prepares for Continued Nationwide Growth to Increase Kiosk Installations and Strengthen Nationwide Access to Bitcoin

ATLANTA, Jan. 11, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Bitcoin Depot (“Bitcoin Depot” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: BTM), a U.S.-based Bitcoin ATM operator and leading fintech company, today announced the expansion of its workforce with the hiring of more than a dozen new sales representatives. These new team members are strategically located across the United States, including Hawaii and Puerto Rico, underscoring Bitcoin Depot’s commitment to nationwide growth and Bitcoin ATM (“BTM”) accessibility.

Bitcoin Depot expects each sales representative to play a pivotal role in the Company’s aggressive expansion strategy during 2024. Once fully engaged, the representatives are anticipated to secure roughly 100-200 new Bitcoin Depot kiosk locations on a monthly basis with the goal of expanding the number of installed BTMs by the end of 2024 to a record high for Bitcoin Depot.

“We are excited to welcome our new sales team members into the Bitcoin Depot family. Their diverse backgrounds and strategic retail relationships are integral to our mission of making Bitcoin accessible to everyone, everywhere,” said Bitcoin Depot Founder and CEO Brandon Mintz. “Integrating these new team members marks a key milestone in our journey to set a new record in Bitcoin Depot`s installed kiosks. Their dedicated efforts are essential not just for widening our geographical footprint but also for strengthening and deepening our relationships with retailers across the country.”

The new sales hires are part of Bitcoin Depot’s comprehensive growth plan, which focuses on increasing its BTM network and continuing to build a robust pipeline of major regional and national retail partners. This approach reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to make Bitcoin more accessible to the public and to solidify its position as a market leader in the Bitcoin ATM industry.

About Bitcoin Depot
Bitcoin Depot Inc. (Nasdaq: BTM), founded in 2016, is dedicated to bridging the gap between traditional finance and digital currencies. The company offers user-friendly, efficient, and intuitive ways for consumers to convert cash into Bitcoin, enabling access to the broader digital financial system. With a presence in 48 states, Bitcoin Depot operates the largest network of BTMs in North America. Through its innovative services, including thousands of kiosk locations and the BDCheckout product, Bitcoin Depot continues to be at the forefront of fintech advancements. For more information, visit www.bitcoindepot.com.

Contacts:
Investors 
Cody Slach, Alex Kovtun 
Gateway Group, Inc. 
949-574-3860 
btm@gateway-grp.com

Media 
Christina Lockwood, Brenlyn Motlagh, Ryan Deloney 
Gateway Group, Inc.
949-574-3860 
btm@gateway-grp.com

Source: Bitcoin Depot Inc.

Released January 11, 2024

Bit Digital (BTBT) – An Upsized Contract

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, January 11, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Expansion. Before the initial 192 servers representing 1,536 GPUs have all come on-line, Bit Digital announced an expansion of its initial AI contract. Under the terms of the agreement, Bit Digital will supply the customer with computational power from an additional 512 GPUs for a period of three years. The total contract value with the customer for an aggregate of 2,048 GPUs is now worth more than $50 million of annualized revenue to Bit Digital.

New Order. Bit Digital placed a purchase order for 64 servers manufactured by Super Micro Computer, Inc. that are equipped with 512 Nvidia HGX H100 GPUs along with related equipment, which are expected to be delivered to the Company during January 2024.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

AZZ Inc (AZZ) – Improving margins lead management to bump up guidance

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, January 11, 2024

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Sales grew as expected as we head into the slower, winter months. Sales in the most recent quarter rose 2.2% year over year with Metal Coatings sales increasing 3.1% and Precoat Metal sales growing 1.6%. Management cited a shift from plastic to aluminum material and tail winds from the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

Margins continue to improve with the shift towards Metal Coatings business and operational efficiencies. EBITDA margins grew to 22.6% of sales versus 18.5%. The improvement reflects operational efficiencies and higher growth for the higher margin Metal Coating business.


Get the Full Report

Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

What Investors Need to Know if Bitcoin ETF Gets the Green Light

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The long-awaited arrival of SEC-approved bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) promises to open the floodgates for mainstream investor exposure to the world’s largest cryptocurrency. After years of rejections and delays, the SEC appears ready to finally allow spot bitcoin ETFs that hold the digital asset directly.

This stamp of regulatory approval positions bitcoin to go fully mainstream in 2024. Financial advisors can now more easily allocate client assets into bitcoin through the familiar ETF wrapper. Major financial institutions and retirement accounts like 401(k)s will likely broaden access as well.

For crypto-curious investors, a spot bitcoin ETF offers a simpler way to gain exposure without dealing with digital wallets and exchanges. But navigating this new ETF landscape won’t be easy. Here’s what investors need to know:

Shop Around for Fees

Dozens of issuers have spot bitcoin ETF filings awaiting SEC approval. With so much competition, expense ratios are plunging. Several issuers like ARK Invest and Bitwise have waived fees completely for six months. Others range from 0.25% to over 1%. Pay close attention to fee structures, which will vary greatly between issuers.

Monitor Premiums and Discounts

While bitcoin itself is highly liquid, new ETFs may deviate from their net asset value or trading price. Factors like redemption policies and authorized participant rules could cause ETF shares to trade at small premiums initially. Keep an eye on premium/discount behavior, favoring ETFs that demonstrate efficient trading and tight spreads.

Consider Futures-Based ETFs Too

Spot bitcoin ETFs remove the futures curve drama, but don’t ignore futures-based funds. The ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) has built a solid track record since launching in October 2021. Futures-based strategies could still make sense for tactical traders and institutional investors, despite added complexity.

Temper Short-Term Expectations

Bitcoin ETFs are unlikely to immediately trigger massive inflows from retail and institutional investors. Assets may reach $10 billion this year, but that’s tiny compared to bitcoin’s $900 billion market cap. Widespread adoption will take time as investors wait and see how these new products function.

Beware the Crypto Bubble

While bitcoin has rebounded from its 2022 lows, speculative excess still persists. Hundreds of altcoins with no utility or differentiators have billion dollar valuations. Cryptocurrency markets remain prone to volatility and hype cycles. ETFs offer exposure, but be wary of parabolic rallies.

Think Long-Term Store of Value

The bitcoin blockchain and protocol aren’t going away. Only 21 million BTC can ever be mined. Consider using ETFs as part of a diversified portfolio focused on bitcoin’s potential as a long-term store of value, similar to gold. But also be prepared for 50%+ drawdowns during times of market stress.

Look Beyond Bitcoin

Bitcoin ETFs are just the beginning. The SEC has yet to approve ETFs holding other major cryptocurrencies like ether and solana. If these are eventually permitted, diversified crypto ETFs could become an enticing one-stop shop. Institutional investors are already trading cryptocurrency index funds tracking a basket of assets.

Understand the Tax Implications

Cryptocurrency remains subject to complex U.S. tax rules that classify it as property. Investors must pay capital gains taxes whenever selling at a profit, including cashing out of ETFs at a higher bitcoin price. Long-term tax rates are more favorable. Financial advisors can help craft tax-smart crypto strategies.

See How Institutions Respond

Large asset managers and financial institutions will need time to evaluate these new products before allowing clients access. Their embrace could drive billions in inflows. But if major players bar access or remain cautious, retail adoption may lag. Pay attention to their stance.

Approval of spot bitcoin ETFs removes a huge roadblock to mainstream crypto investment. But it’s still early days. As investors navigate this rapidly evolving landscape, following prudent portfolio strategies and avoiding FOMO will be key to capitalizing on this milestone.

Chesapeake Acquires Southwestern in$7.4 Billion Natural Gas Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Chesapeake Energy is making a massive bet on the future of natural gas with its just-announced $7.4 billion all-stock acquisition of rival Southwestern Energy. The deal, announced Thursday morning, will create a natural gas behemoth and make Chesapeake the largest natural gas producer in the United States.

The deal reflects Chesapeake’s bullish outlook on natural gas amid a wave of consolidation in the U.S. energy sector. Major players like Exxon and Chevron have recently snapped up Permian Basin leaders like Pioneer Natural Resources and Hess Corporation with multi-billion dollar deals. Now Chesapeake is looking to cement its dominance in natural gas production through its purchase of Southwestern’s assets primarily located in the Haynesville basin of Louisiana and the Appalachian shale formations.

Chesapeake itself emerged from bankruptcy just two years ago in 2021 and has been aggressively rebuilding under CEO Nick Dell’Osso. It has honed in on natural gas assets and production, believing gas will play an integral role in the global energy transition away from dirtier fossil fuels. Natural gas emits 50-60% less carbon dioxide when combusted compared to coal, but still faces criticism from environmentalists.

The Southwestern deal doubles down on this gas-focused strategy. The combined company will churn out a mammoth 7.9 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production. That is enough to rocket Chesapeake past EQT Corporation as the top natural gas producer based on volume. Chesapeake already boosted its gas position last year with the $2.5 billion purchase of Chief E&D.

Chesapeake is offering Southwestern shareholders $6.69 per share, representing a slight 3% discount to Southwestern’s last closing share price. The deal values Southwestern at around $7.4 billion. Chesapeake shareholders will own approximately 60% of the merged entity, with Southwestern shareholders owning the remaining 40%.

Southwestern gives Chesapeake key positions in two of the most prolific U.S. natural gas plays. Its Marcellus Shale assets in Pennsylvania and West Virginia dovetail perfectly with Chesapeake’s existing Northeast presence. Southwestern also brings over 700,000 Haynesville acres, solidifying Chesapeake’s status as the dominant player in the basin.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Senior Research Analyst Michael Heim’s coverage universe.

The merger is expected to unlock $350-400 million in annual cost synergies within the first two years, a major boost to cash flows. Chesapeake predicts the deal will be accretive to all relevant 2023 per-share metrics. The combined company will retain Chesapeake’s investment grade credit rating and chop net debt to EBITDAX from 1.5x to under 1.3x in 2023.

Chesapeake CEO Dell’Osso will stay on as chief executive of the merged entity. He called the deal “highly compelling” and said it will “further enhance free cash flow growth and return of capital to shareholders.”

Natural gas prices face near-term headwinds, having plunged over 60% last year due to ballooning inventory levels and mild winter weather. But long-term projections remain bullish, especially if more coal generation is retired and replaced by gas. LNG export facilities continue expanding along the Gulf Coast, offering producers prime access to higher-priced global markets.

Chesapeake is betting big that natural gas will retain a substantial role in the global energy mix even as zero-carbon sources like wind and solar grow. If gas demand rises as expected, Chesapeake will be sitting pretty as the largest U.S. producer. But execution risks remain, as the two companies integrate operations and work through the challenges of joining two complex businesses.

The deal is expected to close in Q2 2024, pending shareholder and regulatory approval. But Chesapeake is already taking a victory lap, believing the tie-up cements its status as a premier U.S. natural gas producer for decades to come.