The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to show signs of stress, with May’s ISM Manufacturing PMI slipping further into contraction territory at 48.5 — down from April’s 48.7. This persistent decline highlights the fragility of the sector amid deepening global trade tensions and domestic economic uncertainty. Perhaps more alarmingly, U.S. imports plunged to their lowest levels since 2009, registering a reading of 39.9, a significant drop from April’s 47.1.
This steep decline in imports reflects both softening demand and the growing impact of tariffs, many of which have been reintroduced or expanded under President Trump’s revised trade policy. According to Susan Spence of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, tariffs were the most cited concern among respondents — with 86% mentioning them. Several likened the current climate to the disarray of the early pandemic.
For small-cap stocks, especially those tied to industrials, materials, and manufacturing, this environment spells both challenge and opportunity. Small caps are often more domestically focused than their large-cap counterparts and tend to be more sensitive to economic cycles. When manufacturing slows, these companies typically suffer more acutely from reduced orders, higher input costs due to tariffs, and tighter margins.
However, the current backdrop is more nuanced. While ISM’s index showed contraction, S&P Global’s separate gauge of manufacturing activity rose to 52, indicating slight expansion. Yet, even that report carried warnings: Chief economist Chris Williamson noted that the uptick is likely temporary, driven by inventory hoarding amid fears of supply chain issues and rising prices.
This divergence reveals how mixed signals are becoming the norm — complicating investment strategies in the small-cap space. On one hand, small manufacturers that rely on imported materials face margin pressure from rising input costs due to tariffs. On the other, those able to localize supply chains or produce domestically could benefit from reshoring trends and domestic inventory build-up.
For investors, the key takeaway is caution, not panic. Many small-cap industrials are already priced for a slowdown, but those with strong balance sheets and pricing power may weather the storm — or even gain market share as competitors falter. Meanwhile, increased inventory levels could provide short-term tailwinds, though that may evaporate quickly if demand doesn’t keep pace.
Marketwide, prolonged manufacturing contraction can pressure broader economic indicators, especially employment and capital spending, ultimately weighing on the S&P 500 and Dow. The Nasdaq, less exposed to traditional manufacturing, may prove more resilient.
In conclusion, the state of U.S. manufacturing is flashing caution signs, especially for small-cap stocks in the sector. While short-term inventory surges and reshoring trends may offer brief relief, the longer-term picture remains clouded by tariff uncertainties and fragile global trade relations. Investors would be wise to look for companies with flexible supply chains, diversified revenue streams, and strong cash positions as potential outperformers in this challenging landscape.
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Enter Negotiations for Extension. On Friday, it was announced the government intends to enter into negotiations with GEO’s BI subsidiary for a one year extension of the ISAP program, which is currently effective through July 31, 2025. We would view an extension of this program as a significant positive for GEO in both the near-term and longer term.
A Positive Future? Acknowledging Friday’s release is limited to extending the current contract for a year, the verbiage used by the government contracting agency highlights the moat GEO has built around the business, suggesting the Company should be in the catbird’s seat for a longer term renewal. For example, the government states, “Market research conducted by the Office of Acquisition Management revealed that there is only one responsible source because the current contractor is uniquely positioned to maintain existing operations of the program without transitioning active program participants between contractor solutions.”
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Net Loss of $1.4 Million Was Less Than We Expected. 1Q25 Nutriband reported a loss for 1Q26, ended April 30, 2025, of $1.4 million or $(0.12) per share. Product Sales were $0.67 million, slightly below the $0.7 million we had estimated. Importantly, the company made progress advancing its abuse-resistant AVERSA Fentanyl patch toward clinical testing. We expect future revenues to be driven by AVERSA Fentanyl and see the current product sales as a means to offset the cost of product development. Cash at the end of the quarter was $3.0 million.
Total Expenses Were Below Expectations. During the quarter, COGS were $0.4 million or 62% of sales, lower than the 70% we had expected and the 65% seen for FY2024. SG&A and R&D were both close to our estimates, with Total Expenses of $2.1 million lower than our estimate of $2.5 million. We had initially allowed for a stock offering during the quarter that would have increased the Weighted Average Shares Outstanding to 13.2 million, compared with the reported 11.1 million.
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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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New Award. In Friday’s Department of Defense contract releases, Great Lakes was awarded a new $35.8 million dredging contract for Galveston, TX. The contract should be completed by the beginning of November 2025. We view this as Great Lakes filling in the very limited open 2025 calendar.
Empire 1 Restarted. In mid-May, the stop work order on the Empire 1 offshore wind project was lifted allowing construction activities to resume. Equinor will perform an updated assessment of the project economics in the second quarter. Empire aims to be able to execute planned activities in the offshore installation window in 2025 and reach its planned commercial operation date in 2027. Empire will engage with suppliers and regulatory bodies to reduce the impact of the stop work order. This is positive news for the still under construction Acadia.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
DLH delivers improved health and readiness solutions for federal programs through research, development, and innovative care processes. The Company’s experts in public health, performance evaluation, and health operations solve the complex problems faced by civilian and military customers alike, leveraging digital transformation, artificial intelligence, advanced analytics, cloud-based applications, telehealth systems, and more. With over 2,300 employees dedicated to the idea that “Your Mission is Our Passion,” DLH brings a unique combination of government sector experience, proven methodology, and unwavering commitment to public health to improve the lives of millions. For more information, visit www.DLHcorp.com.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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An Accumulator. Mink Brook Capital has been a steady accumulator of DLHC shares, amassing 2,164,058 DLHC shares, representing approximately 15% of the outstanding shares. Mink Brook first filed a schedule 13G back in early July 2024, disclosing a 5% holding of DLHC shares. The investment firm has continuously added to its stake since then. Mink Brook is the second largest holder of DLHC shares, only behind long-term holder Wynnefield Capital, owner of approximately 25.6% of the shares.
Who Is Mink Brook? Florida based Mink Brook was founded in May 2019 by William Mueller. Mr. Mueller had spent the past decade successfully investing and advising capital in the small-cap space. He desired to form an investment firm that would provide investors with idiosyncratic, uncorrelated returns by focusing on companies outside of major indexes. As of March 31st, the investment management firm had 32 positions with a market value of $95 million. Mink Brook’s DLH holding was the manager’s sixth largest by market cap.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Annual general meeting. Aurania Resources will host its Annual Meeting of Shareholders at 1:30 pm ET on Thursday, June 12. Shareholders will vote to elect directors, appoint McGovern Hurley LLP as auditor for the ensuing year, and approve Aurania’s incentive stock option plan. Dr. Keith Barron, Chairman, President, and CEO, is expected to provide a brief update on activities following the formal part of the meeting. Aurania will provide a link to a video and/or audio replay of Dr. Barron’s update.
First quarter financial results. As an exploration company, Aurania does not generate revenue and incurs costs to advance its projects. During the first quarter, the company reported a net loss of C$5,106,264 or C$(0.05) per share compared to a loss of C$4,736,264 or C$(0.07) per share during the prior year period. Weighted average shares outstanding increased to 104,168,397 compared to 67,471,7737 during the first quarter of 2024. Exploration expenditures increased to C$3,949,010 compared to C$3,536,819 during the prior year period to fund activities in both Ecuador and France.
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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Key Points: – Aura Minerals to buy Serra Grande gold mine from AngloGold for $76M plus royalties. – The mine has produced 3M+ oz of gold, with Aura aiming to boost output and cut costs. – Deal set to close by late 2025, pending regulatory and operational approvals.
Aura Minerals Inc. has announced a major step in its growth trajectory with the acquisition of the Mineração Serra Grande (MSG) gold mine from AngloGold Ashanti, in a deal that could significantly reshape the company’s position in Brazil’s mining sector. The transaction, valued at an upfront $76 million plus a 3% net smelter return on existing resources, reflects Aura’s confidence in the long-term potential of this historically productive asset.
Located near Crixás in the northwest of Goiás, Brazil, Serra Grande has been a cornerstone of AngloGold’s Brazilian portfolio, producing over 3 million ounces of gold since 1998. With three underground mines, an open-pit operation, and a metallurgical plant boasting a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per year, the site is well-established. The acquisition marks Aura’s strategic return to a familiar asset – several team members have prior experience with Serra Grande, positioning them to optimize its future operations.
Rodrigo Barbosa, Aura’s President and CEO, emphasized the transformative potential of the deal. “Through our disciplined capital allocation, Aura 360 culture, and a targeted exploration program, we believe we can significantly enhance performance, boost production, reduce costs, and extend the Life of Mine at Serra Grande,” Barbosa said. He also hinted at ambitions to make Serra Grande a new cornerstone in Aura’s diversified portfolio, which already includes operations across Brazil, Mexico, and Central America.
However, the acquisition comes with conditions. It is contingent upon antitrust approval from Brazilian authorities (CADE), the completion of a legacy tailings dam decommissioning, and a corporate restructuring to spin off certain non-core subsidiaries of MSG. Barring unforeseen delays, Aura expects to finalize the deal by the third or fourth quarter of 2025.
From a technical standpoint, AngloGold’s last reported resource statement (Dec. 2024) estimated over 1 million ounces of Measured and Indicated gold resources, with an additional 1.4 million ounces classified as Inferred. While Aura considers these numbers as “historical estimates” and not compliant with Canadian NI 43-101 reporting standards, they highlight the untapped potential of the site. Aura plans to verify and potentially expand these resources through further exploration and technical work.
This acquisition reflects broader trends in the gold mining industry: mid-tier players like Aura are increasingly seizing opportunities to acquire under-optimized assets from global majors. The shift also demonstrates growing investor appetite for junior and mid-cap miners with clear value creation plans.
By reinvigorating a legacy operation with fresh capital, experienced leadership, and its unique Aura 360 philosophy—which balances profitability with environmental and social responsibility—Aura is making a bold statement. If successful, Serra Grande could represent not just an increase in output, but a model for revitalizing aging mining assets across Latin America.
As global gold demand remains resilient and macroeconomic uncertainty supports strong prices, Aura’s calculated risk may well pay off, cementing its role as a nimble and forward-looking player in the mining industry.
Key Points: – April’s inflation rate slowed to 2.1%, lower than expected, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve. – Consumer spending grew just 0.2%, while the savings rate jumped to 4.9%. – Core PCE inflation held at 2.5% annually, supporting a wait-and-see approach from policymakers.
Inflation cooled in April, offering a potential signal that price pressures may be stabilizing and possibly giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility in managing interest rates. According to data released Friday by the Commerce Department, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — rose just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual rate down to 2.1%. That figure is slightly below expectations and marks the lowest inflation reading of the year so far.
Core PCE, which strips out the more volatile food and energy categories and is considered a better indicator of long-term inflation trends, also increased just 0.1% in April. On a year-over-year basis, core inflation stood at 2.5%, slightly under the anticipated 2.6%.
These subdued inflation figures arrive amid a backdrop of softer consumer spending and a jump in personal savings. Consumer spending rose just 0.2% for the month — a sharp slowdown from the 0.7% gain in March. Meanwhile, the personal savings rate surged to 4.9%, its highest level in nearly a year. This suggests that households may be pulling back on discretionary purchases and becoming more cautious with their finances.
The moderation in price increases could provide the Federal Reserve with more breathing room as it considers the trajectory of interest rates. While the Fed has resisted calls for rate cuts amid lingering inflation concerns, a sustained easing trend could support a policy shift later this year. However, the central bank remains wary, particularly as some inflationary risks — such as potential tariff impacts — loom in the background.
Energy prices ticked up by 0.5% in April, while food prices dipped by 0.3%. Shelter costs, a key driver of persistent inflation in recent months, continued to rise at a 0.4% pace. Nonetheless, the overall inflation picture showed clear signs of deceleration.
Notably, personal income climbed by 0.8% in April, well above the 0.3% estimate. This growth in income, paired with higher savings, points to a consumer base that may be more financially resilient than previously thought, even if spending has temporarily cooled.
Markets responded with relative indifference to the inflation data. Stock futures drifted lower and Treasury yields were mixed, as investors weighed the implications for future monetary policy against broader economic uncertainties.
Recent trade tensions — especially President Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs and the ongoing legal back-and-forth over their legitimacy — add complexity to the outlook. While the direct inflationary impact of tariffs has so far been muted, economists warn that higher input costs could feed into prices later this year if tariff policies persist.
Looking ahead, the Fed will be closely monitoring inflation trends, consumer behavior, and labor market developments. If price pressures remain tame and growth conditions warrant, the central bank may eventually consider adjusting rates — though for now, caution remains the guiding principle.
CULVER CITY, Calif., May 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Snail, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNAL) (“Snail Games” or the “Company”), a leading global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment, announced that its independent indie publishing label, Wandering Wizard, entered into a publishing partnership with Argentina-based developer Seven Leaf Clover, to acquire the publishing rights to Rebel Engine, a high-impact, single-player, first-person shooter (“FPS”) game. Expected to release on PC in 2025, the Company expects that Rebel Engine will further expand Wandering Wizard’s footprint in the global gaming market.
Rebel Engine is a fast-paced FPS action game that blends visceral melee combat with powerful gunplay and a fluid, combo-driven system. Set in a stylized robot dystopia, players assume the role of Asimov, an enslaved machine who escapes corporate control and leads a revolution against a megacorporation. The game offers multiple melee weapon styles, custom combos, intense boss fights, and a narrative that explores themes of identity, resistance, and liberation.
Snail, Inc.’s Co-Chief Executive Officer, Tony Tian, commented: “The addition of Rebel Engine to Wandering Wizard’s expanding portfolio reinforces Snail’s broader mission to build a diversified and resilient gaming lineup and expand our reach into the global gaming market. We’re honored to partner with Seven Leaf Cover and look forward to supporting Rebel Engine through its launch later this year.”
Wandering Wizard and Seven Leaf Clover aim to showcase the creative and commercial potential of cross-regional collaboration with Rebel Engine, reinforcing Snail’s long-term strategy of cultivating diverse talent and delivering premium indie experiences on a global scale.
For creators interested in collaborative opportunities reach out at creatordirect@noiz.gg
About Seven Leaf Clover Seven Leaf Clover is an independent team from Argentina committed to pushing the boundaries of game design. With rebellion as a core pillar, the studio creates intense and meaningful experiences that challenge industry standards, both thematically and mechanically. Their work delves into unconventional narratives and mechanics as a vehicle to question norms and forge new, uncharted paths in video games.
About Wandering Wizard Wandering Wizard is passionately committed to championing indie game developers. We provide a platform for fresh voices, revolutionary ideas, and daring experiments within the indie gaming realm. Embracing the inherent risks of indie game development, we partner with creators worldwide to enrich the global gaming community with inclusive, inspiring, and innovative gaming experiences.
About Snail, Inc. Snail, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNAL) is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs, and mobile devices. For more information, please visit: https://snail.com/.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements. Many of the forward-looking statements contained in this press release can be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “could,” “expect,” “should,” “plan,” “intend,” “may,” “predict,” “continue,” “estimate” and “potential,” or the negative of these terms or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements appear in a number of places in this press release and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding Rebel Engine’s potential to further expand Wandering Wizard’s footprint and reach in the global gaming market, thereby reinforcing Snail’s long-term strategy of cultivating diverse talent and delivering premium indie experiences on a global scale. You should carefully consider the risks and uncertainties described in the “Risk Factors” section of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2024, which was filed by the Company with the SEC on March 26, 2025 and other documents filed by the Company from time to time with the SEC, including the Company’s Forms 10-Q filed with the SEC. The Company does not undertake or accept any obligation to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or any change in events, conditions, or circumstances on which any such statement is based.
Investor Contact: John Yi and Steven Shinmachi Gateway Group, Inc. 949-574-3860 SNAL@gateway-grp.com
ATLANTA, May 30, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Bitcoin Depot Inc. (Nasdaq: BTM) (“Bitcoin Depot” or the “Company”), a U.S.-based Bitcoin ATM operator and leading fintech company, announced it has simplified its organizational and capital structure by eliminating its Up-C Restructuring (the “Up-C Restructuring”).
Pursuant to the Up-C Restructuring, BT Assets, Inc., an entity controlled by the Company’s Founder and CEO, Brandon Mintz, that held Common Units in BT HoldCo LLC and shares of the Company’s Class V Common Stock has merged with a subsidiary of the Company and received 41,193,024 shares of the Company’s Class M common stock, which will continue to carry 10 votes per share, as consideration in the merger.
In connection with the Up-C Restructuring, all of the shares of the Company’s Class V Common Stock held by BT Assets have been transferred to the Company and cancelled. After giving effect to the Up-C Restructuring, Mintz holds a total of 41,193,024 shares of the Company’s Class M Common Stock and 142,973 shares of the Company’s Class A Common Stock.
Post-transaction, Bitcoin Depot now wholly-owns its principal operating subsidiaries. The Company believes the simpler structure will offer benefits like better stock liquidity, easier use of stock for acquisitions, and a clearer corporate profile.
In addition, the Up-C Restructuring extinguishes the $2.2 million Tax Receivable Agreement liability and will lead to further long-term savings, as the Company estimates its cash tax rate will be reduced by an estimated 12 percentage points. Other professional services costs associated with tax, accounting and legal will also be reduced by this simpler structure.
About Bitcoin Depot
Bitcoin Depot Inc. (Nasdaq: BTM) was founded in 2016 with the mission to connect those who prefer to use cash to the broader, digital financial system. Bitcoin Depot provides its users with simple, efficient and intuitive means of converting cash into Bitcoin, which users can deploy in the payments, spending and investing space. Users can convert cash to bitcoin at Bitcoin Depot kiosks in 48 states and at thousands of name-brand retail locations in 29 states through its BDCheckout product. The Company has the largest market share in North America with over 8,400 kiosk locations as of February 25, 2025. Learn more at www.bitcoindepot.com.
This press release and any oral statements made in connection herewith include “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements are any statements other than statements of historical fact, and include, but are not limited to, statements regarding the expectations of plans, business strategies, objectives and growth and anticipated financial and operational performance, including our growth strategy and ability to increase deployment of our products and services, our ability to strengthen our financial profile, and worldwide growth in the adoption and use of cryptocurrencies. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current beliefs, based on currently available information, as to the outcome and timing of future events. Forward-looking statements are often identified by words such as “anticipate,” “appears,” “approximately,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “designed,” “effect,” “estimate,” “evaluate,” “expect,” “forecast,” “goal,” “initiative,” “intend,” “may,” “objective,” “outlook,“ ”plan,“ ”potential,“ ”priorities,“ ”project,“ ”pursue,“ ”seek,“ ”should,“ ”target,“ ”when,“ ”will,“ ”would,” or the negative of any of those words or similar expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends or that are not statements of historical matters, although not all forward-looking statements contain such identifying words. In making these statements, we rely upon assumptions and analysis based on our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors we consider appropriate under the circumstances. We believe these judgments are reasonable, but these statements are not guarantees of any future events or financial results. These forward-looking statements are provided for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to serve as, and must not be relied on by any investor as, a guarantee, an assurance, a prediction or a definitive statement of fact or probability. Actual events and circumstances are difficult or impossible to predict and will differ from assumptions. Many actual events and circumstances are beyond our control.
These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including changes in domestic and foreign business, market, financial, political and legal conditions; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the business combination; risks relating to the uncertainty of our projected financial information; future global, regional or local economic and market conditions; the development, effects and enforcement of laws and regulations; our ability to manage future growth; our ability to develop new products and services, bring them to market in a timely manner and make enhancements to our platform; the effects of competition on our future business; our ability to issue equity or equity-linked securities; the outcome of any potential litigation, government and regulatory proceedings, investigations and inquiries; and those factors described or referenced in filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. If any of these risks materialize or our assumptions prove incorrect, actual results could differ materially from the results implied by these forward-looking statements. There may be additional risks that we do not presently know or that we currently believe are immaterial that could also cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. In addition, forward-looking statements reflect our expectations, plans or forecasts of future events and views as of the date of this press release. We anticipate that subsequent events and developments will cause our assessments to change.
We caution readers not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and we undertake no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or other factors that affect the subject of these statements, except where we are expressly required to do so by law. All written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Investment thesis on track. We believe the company is on track to deliver on our full-year revenue and adj. EBITDA forecast, despite investor concerns around federal budget cuts, to which we believe the company has limited actual exposure. Moreover, although there may be some concerns over disruption from potential new asset sales, we anticipate that additional sales would likely focus on lower-margin business units and could help to bolster the company’s long-term cashflow margin profile.
Re-affirming full year 2025 estimates. While we are largely maintaining our full year estimates, we are fine-tuning the quarterly cadence of adj. EBITDA to better reflect seasonality. Our Q2 and Q3 adj. EBITDA estimates are raised to $33 million and $52 million, respectively, while Q4 is lowered to $54 million, reflecting factors tied to SNAP and Medicare enrollment. We expect 2026 revenue growth of 3% to $3.22 billion with adj. EBITDA margin expansion to 8.0%.
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Xcel Brands, Inc. 1333 Broadway 10th Floor New York, NY 10018 United States https:/Sector(s): Consumer Cyclical Industry: Apparel Manufacturing Full Time Employees: 84 Key Executives Name Title Pay Exercised Year Born Mr. Robert W. D’Loren Chairman, Pres & CEO 1.27M N/A 1958 Mr. James F. Haran CFO, Principal Financial & Accou
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Lackluster Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $1.2 million and an adj. EBITDA loss of $0.8 million, both of which were well below our estimates of $2.6 million and $0.2 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, while Q4 results were softer than expected, the company has signed several new brands this year, which have yet to impact operating results. Importantly, the new brand launches have increased the company’s total social media following from 5 million to 45 million over the past five months, a significant step towards reaching its goal of 100 million followers.
Preliminary Q1 results. Additionally, the company provided preliminary Q1 results of $1.33 million in revenue, a decrease from $2.18 million last year, and an expected net loss of roughly $2.67 million, which is an improvement from a net loss of $6.35 million last year. The improvement in net loss is attributable to a $0.8 million improvement in core operating results and a $2.3 million impairment charge recorded in the prior year period.
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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Key Points: – E.l.f. acquires Hailey Bieber’s Rhode to expand into high-end skincare. – Rhode hit $212M in sales in 3 years, driven by DTC and social media. – Rhode to launch in Sephora; Bieber stays on as creative head.
E.l.f. Beauty is making a bold move into the luxury skincare space with its acquisition of Hailey Bieber’s skincare brand, Rhode, in a deal valued at up to $1 billion. The acquisition, announced Wednesday, marks E.l.f.’s largest to date and signals a strategic shift to broaden its appeal and strengthen its skincare portfolio.
The deal includes $800 million in cash and stock, with an additional $200 million contingent on Rhode’s performance over the next three years. It’s expected to close later this year, during the second quarter of E.l.f.’s fiscal 2026.
Founded in 2022 by Bieber and co-founders Michael and Lauren Ratner, Rhode has skyrocketed to success in just three years, generating $212 million in net sales with a minimalist product lineup. The brand’s direct-to-consumer model and social media dominance — particularly on TikTok — have driven exponential growth and massive brand awareness.
“I’ve been in the consumer space for 34 years, and I’ve never seen anything like this,” said E.l.f. CEO Tarang Amin. “Rhode disrupted the skincare market with just 10 products and a clear, authentic voice.”
Hailey Bieber will stay on as Rhode’s Chief Creative Officer and Head of Innovation, continuing to oversee marketing and product development. In a statement, she expressed excitement about scaling Rhode with E.l.f., saying the partnership will “elevate and accelerate” their reach and global distribution.
While Rhode has operated exclusively through its website, it is set to launch in Sephora stores across North America and the U.K. before year-end — a move expected to significantly boost retail presence and revenue.
Goldman Sachs analysts called the acquisition a “strategic positive,” praising Rhode’s potential to elevate E.l.f.’s brand value and attract a higher-income customer segment. Rhode’s average product price — in the high $20 range — complements E.l.f.’s affordable core products, which start around $6.50.
This move follows E.l.f.’s 2023 acquisition of Naturium for $355 million, underscoring its commitment to expanding in skincare — a category with growing demand among younger consumers.
However, the timing poses challenges. E.l.f. is funding $600 million of the deal with debt amid high interest rates, and it faces uncertainty around tariffs on Chinese imports, from which it sources 75% of its products. The company is also planning a $1 price hike beginning in August to counter rising costs.
Despite these headwinds, E.l.f. reported strong Q4 results: earnings per share of $0.78 (vs. $0.72 expected) and $333 million in revenue (vs. $328 million forecasted). But due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff risks, the company declined to offer guidance for fiscal 2026.
The Rhode deal reflects E.l.f.’s confidence in premium skincare’s resilience—even in a shaky economic climate—and positions the brand to capture a larger share of the beauty market with innovative, high-impact products.
