FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
NYC NDRS. We hosted FAT Brands CEO Andrew Wiederhorn and members of the management team in New York City for investor meetings last week. The tone of the meetings was positive with management highlighting the significant opportunities to grow EBITDA.
Outstanding Franchisee Conference. In late August, the Company hosted its franchisees for a conference. Reports from the meeting indicate an upbeat franchisee group, with FAT inking 150 new franchisee contracts over the three day conference, driving the backlog of new locations to over 1,000. We believe the new contracts are an indicator of the franchisee groups’ confidence in the FAT Brands model.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Entravision Communications Corporation is a diversified Spanish-language media company utilizing a combination of television and radio operations to reach Hispanic consumers across the United States, as well as the border markets of Mexico. Entravision owns and/or operates 53 primary television stations and is the largest affiliate group of both the top-ranked Univision television network and Univision’s TeleFutura network, with television stations in 20 of the nation’s top 50 Hispanic markets. The Company also operates one of the nation’s largest groups of primarily Spanish-language radio stations, consisting of 48 owned and operated radio stations.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Accelerates purchase of Cisneros. The company announced that it paid $22 million and will pay another $22 million in April 2023 for a total of $44 million for the remaining balance that it owes for Cisneros. This accelerates the payment plan for 49% of Cisneros that it agreed to acquire in 2021. Under the original plan, the company was expected to have paid as much as $60 million over the next 2 years.
Frees management. We believe that the advanced timeline for the payment, which is expected to have included performance fees, frees management to pursue growth opportunities outside of its existing Latin American territories.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Digerati Technologies, Inc. (OTCQB: DTGI) is a provider of cloud services specializing in UCaaS (Unified Communications as a Service) solutions for the business market. Through its operating subsidiaries, T3 Communications (T3com.com), Nexogy (Nexogy.com), SkyNet Telecom (Skynettelecom.net) and NextLevel Internet (nextlevelinternet.com), the Company is meeting the global needs of small businesses seeking simple, flexible, reliable, and cost effective communication and network solutions including cloud PBX, cloud telephony, cloud WAN, cloud call center, cloud mobile, and the delivery of digital oxygen on its broadband network.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A vehicle for up-listing. The company announced its plans to enter a business combination with Minority Equality Opportunities Acquisition Inc. (MEOA), a Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC). The transaction, which will result in an up-list to the NASDAQ, should allow the company easier access to the capital markets going forward and potentially accelerate its roll-up strategy.
Transaction details. The SPAC holds $128 million cash in trust. However, there will be SPAC shareholder redemptions prior to the deal closing. We conservatively assume 95% redemption, which would result in proceeds of an estimated $6.4 million in cash. At that redemption rate, Digerati shareholders and warrant holders will retain a 73% equity stake, with 21% going to sponsor shares and 6% going to SPAC shareholders.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Why Apple Can Hold the Line on iPhone Prices and Keep Getting Relatively Cheaper
Inflation in the U.S. is surging to near a 40-year high, with prices on food, fuel and pretty much everything seeming to rise more every month.
Smartphones may be an exception.
Apple, for example, recently announced its new versions of the iPhone and other gadgets, and turned a lot of heads when it said it wouldn’t charge more despite higher costs to make the devices.
This is puzzling because companies typically raise prices in line with inflation – or at least enough to cover the increased costs of making their products.
Consumer price data tells an even more befuddling story. The latest consumer price index data suggests smartphone prices are actually down 20.4% in August from a year ago, according to an index released on Sept. 13, 2022. That’s the biggest drop of any detailed expenditure item the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks, and contrasts with the overall 8.3% increase in prices.
What’s going on?
As an economist teaching business school students, I enjoy exploring and explaining these economic puzzles. I believe there are two basic explanations – one for the data and another for Apple.
Why Consumer Prices on Smartphones Fell
The story behind the consumer price index data is easier to explain, if a bit technical.
The 20% drop over the past year isn’t unusual for smartphones. In fact, according to the index, they almost always go down from month to month. Since the end of 2019, smartphone prices have come down a whopping 40%.
And though smartphones are showing the biggest drop in the index, tech gear more broadly – from computers to smartwatches – also tend to fall over time. In the previous 12 months, televisions are down 19% and what the government calls information technology commodities are down 8.8%.
Part of the reason for their steady decline is found buried in the Bureau of Labor Statistics website. The consumer price index tries to measure a constant quality of goods and services in the economy. This means it seeks to track the price changes of the exact same set of goods and services each month. It’s comparing the price today with the price of the exact same thing a month or year ago.
For most goods, it’s not really an issue because their quality doesn’t change much over relatively small periods of time. For example, an apple you bite into today is pretty much the same as an apple you ate a year ago.
Smartphones and other technology-heavy gadgets are different. Because smartphones are constantly improving in quality – with the latest updates of an iPhone or Samsung Galaxy awaited breathlessly every year – it is more difficult to ensure you’re comparing prices of products of the exact same quality.
For rapidly improving items, the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses what are called “hedonic regression models” to estimate these changes in quality over time. Hedonic models measure the same amount of satisfaction. While this sounds complicated, the goal is simple: to figure out how much each new smartphone feature changes the price.
As a consumer, you are essentially doing this whenever you decide whether it is worth paying the extra money for that marginally better camera or extended battery life when buying a new phone.
And so, the 20.4% drop doesn’t mean you’re going to pay less for a new smartphone. But it does suggest you’re getting 20% more bang for your buck versus the same phone a year earlier. Whether it’s worth it is another question.
Why Apple Kept Prices Flat
That brings us to why Apple didn’t change its prices, even as the quality of the iPhone improved and supply chain costs went up.
Beyond the quality issues, one of the main ways supply chain problems are affecting phones is in the shortage of computer chips. If there is any product dependent on computer chips, it is smartphones. The shortage has resulted in delays to produce cars, trucks and many other consumer items.
The shortage has also increased the price of semiconductor parts. The U.S. government’s producer price index shows the price of semiconductor parts like chips and wafers steadily rising since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, after falling for years. Chip prices are likely going up 20% in the next year.
For these and other reasons, analysts were expecting Apple to increase its prices.
Instead, Apple released its latest iPhone models at the same prices as the last two models, or US$799 for the iPhone 14 and $999 for the pro version. Keeping prices constant during inflationary times means iPhones are getting relatively cheaper.
So why isn’t Apple increasing prices? Is it just being kind to its customers, who have fueled tremendous profits for the company over the past decade?
Probably not.
With a gross profit margin of over 40% – meaning that’s how much it makes over the cost of producing all its products and services – Apple can probably afford to absorb increased chip and other component costs.
My best guess, since the smartphone market is fairly competitive, is that Apple is keeping prices the same to build market share in the U.S. – beyond the record 50% it recently hit – so the iPhone remains one of the best-selling smartphones.
So while the cost of almost everything we buy is rising, you can take some comfort in knowing at least one item is getting both better over time and not succumbing to an inflationary price spiral.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Jay L. Zagorsky, Clinical associate professor, Boston University.
Gold is among the first assets that come to mind when investors look to hedge against inflation. The U.S. and other nations are now experiencing the highest levels of inflation in forty years. As consumer prices continue to increase, gold, in all of its investible forms, has been trading down or sideways at best. Will its value pick up and catch up, or has it lost its shine as an inflation hedge?
Up is Down
In any market, the economic inputs impacting prices are many. One overriding factor that has been keeping gold prices at bay is inflation expectations. That’s right; it sounds counter-intuitive, but up is now down, and down is now up in the markets as investors look several steps out to determine their expectations. In this case, the steps follow this path:
Even during the weeks when the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy making board, the FOMC, meets and is universally expected to raise interest rates, longer rates on the treasury curve trade lower, not up. The markets are being very forward-looking and are more concerned with recession than inflation. I suspect this confounds the Fed’s efforts to slow growth and price pressures via rate increases that are being undermined by recession fears.
Gold is not seeing investors increasing their allocation of bullion, gold certificates, ETFs, gold mining companies, or any other assets linked to the price of gold, in large part because markets view the Fed as on a path to wipe out the economy and inflation. This was apparent last week as so-called meme stock AMC Theaters (AMC) shared a positive event related to their gold holdings, the stock traded down.
Dollar Strength
Outside of the U.S., expectations for a deep or deeper recession are growing. This week the German central bank (Bundesbank) said “There are mounting signs of a recession in the German economy in the sense of a clear broad-based and prolonged decline in economic output. This drives investment in the stronger U.S. economy.
In addition to viewing inflation as a reason for rates to be brought down, global unrest and the U.S. central bank being perceived as tightening the most aggressively among trading partners has brought consistent strength to the U.S. dollar. When the performance of dollars and gold are viewed side by side, it hasn’t made sense to exchange the U.S. currency for gold. So in effect, gold which is often viewed as a currency is not competing well with greenbacks.
Take Away
Inflation has been rising. And not just in supply chain-related industries, in services as well. The Federal Reserve’s resolve to bring it down by increasing rates in the U.S. is attracting capital from overseas which has been keeping the dollar strong and as a perceived better alternatve to gold.
While gold prices are historically a beneficiary of higher inflation growth, the expectation that the Fed may quickly overshoot and cause a recession which could halt the run-away prices is winning the price tug-of-war with gold buyer enthusiasm.
Historically, Tightening Cycles Have Not Caused Long-Lasting Market Damage
The Fed does not plan on having a tight monetary policy, just a less easy one.
On March 16, 2022, the FOMC Committee announced their intention to target a fed funds rate that would be 0.25% higher than it had been. It was the first increase since December 2018, and the hike more than doubled this key interest rate. Fed Chair Powell made it clear it would not be the Committee’s last.
Less than two months later, on May 4, the Fed adjusted the overnight target by an additional 0.50%. This was the largest increase since the year 2000. But they were just getting started. They suspected they had fallen behind in their mandate of keeping inflation down. Stable prices generally mean balancing supply and demand, and since the Fed couldn’t do much to raise the consumable supply, they acted to dampen demand. They made money more expensive. In mid-June, the Fed hiked by 0.75%, in late July it pushed them up by 0.75% again, and that was the last time the FOMC met.
The next meeting will be held September 20-21st. The perceived guidance is that they will raise rates again by a similar amount as they did in June and July.
Tightening Cycles
The current tightening cycle is a concern for those that fear that it may lower asset prices and lower business activity. The concerns are warranted as tightening cycles are designed to do exactly that, tame prices and slow economic growth. It’s tough medicine but is supposed to provide for better economic health long term.
Over the past 30 years, the Fed has convened four recognized tightening cycles – periods when it increased the federal funds rate multiple times.
Source: Federal Reserve
Over three decades, the median number of rate hikes per period is eight, and the median time frame is 18 months (from first to last). How has the economy and markets fared through this recent history? Only two of the periods, the one ending in 2000 and then in 2006, were associated with a recession. In all four cases, the market retreated at first.
If one uses GDP as a measuring stick for an economy that is either growing or receding, then the U.S. was in a recessionary economy for a calendar quarter before the initial 0.25% hike. So the tightening may not put us into a recession, but it does have the potential to retard growth further for a deeper recession.
Market Performance
Markets have traded lower in the months following the start of a tightening cycle, but in each of the periods defined above, they have ended higher one year later. It would seem that the market fear of what slower growth would do for companies and stock prices were front-loaded; those fears then gave way to buying as expectations became better defined.
For the tightening cycle that began in 1994, a year after the Fed first took aim at the economy, the S&P 500 Index had already bounced off its low and climbed rapidly to end the 12 months with a positive 2.41% return. At it’s worst, the index had given up 6.50%.
Four months after the tightening cycle began in 1999, the market began marching higher and crossed the breakeven point three times. The first time in August, just 45 days into the cycle, and the last one in May of 2000. For the 12-month period an investor in the index would have gained 5.97%.
In 2004 the tightening cycle again began on June 30. Stock movement over the 12 months that followed are very similar as 1999. For investors that held for five months, (assuming their holdings approximated this benchmark) they were treated with returns of 4.43% 12 months later.
The most recent tightening cycle was seven years ago and began in December. Those invested in securities in 2015 that followed the overall stock market quickly broke even, and for those that held, they were up 10.81% a year later.
On average over the four periods the S&P 500 returned better than 6% after the Fed began a prolonged tightening cycle. The median drawdown is observed to be 9% in the first 49 days following the Fed’s first rate hike. For those that were invested in stocks that were more closely correlated to other indices, their experience was different.
Other Indices (Small Cap, Value, Growth)
Source: Bloomberg
The best average, although it did have a negative return in one of the periods, is the performance of the small cap Russell 2000 index. Investors in small cap stocks would have earned almost twice as much (11.30%) as those invested in the S&P 500 Large cap, almost three times as much earnings as those invested in the Russell 1000 Value stocks, and far more consistent and more than three times the Russell 1000 Growth index.
Take Away
This is not the first time the Federal Reserve has raised rates and implemented a tighter monetary policy. In the past it has not meant doom for the economy. In fact, the policy shift is intended to preserve a healthy economy before it begins causing larger problems for those that depend on jobs and stable prices along with a orderly banking system.
The most recent tightening cycle began six months ago. If history is an indicator, it may last another year, during that time stocks will rebound to a level higher than they were in March when the cycle began. While there are no guarantees that history will accurately point to the future, it helps to know what happened the last four times. Investors may also look to increase their allocation into small cap stocks as they have by far outpaced other indices.
Schwazze (OTCQX:SHWZ, NEO:SHWZ) is building a premier vertically integrated regional cannabis company with assets in Colorado and New Mexico and will continue to take its operating system to other states where it can develop a differentiated regional leadership position. Schwazze is the parent company of a portfolio of leading cannabis businesses and brands spanning seed to sale. The Company is committed to unlocking the full potential of the cannabis plant to improve the human condition. Schwazze is anchored by a high-performance culture that combines customer-centric thinking and data science to test, measure, and drive decisions and outcomes. The Company’s leadership team has deep expertise in retailing, wholesaling, and building consumer brands at Fortune 500 companies as well as in the cannabis sector. Schwazze is passionate about making a difference in our communities, promoting diversity and inclusion, and doing our part to incorporate climate-conscious best practices.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Another Acquisition. Wednesday, Schwazze announced the Company has signed definitive documents to acquire certain assets of Lightshade Labs LLC, which contains two dispensaries located at 503 Havana St. in Aurora and 2215 E. Mississippi Ave. in Denver’s vibrant Washington Park neighborhood, which includes the University of Denver. The proposed acquisition is for $2.75 million in cash with an expected closing in the first quarter of 2023. Operating financials were not provided.
The Dispensaries. Both dispensaries are highly rated by Leafly and Weedmaps, with the Aurora location receiving 4.9 out of 5.0 ratings from each and the Washington Park store receiving 4.9 and 4.3 scores. With Schwazze already operating dispensaries about 2 miles away from each location, the acquisitions continue to fill-in existing white space on the map, in our view.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Non-deal road show highlights. CFO Evan Masyr was in St. Louis last week to host meetings with investors. Masyr highlighted significant debt reduction, strong digital media revenue growth, potential upside in Q4 from Political spending and from release of a Dinesh D’Souza book 2000 Mules. Finally, the company is in a much stronger financial position than it has been in decades.
Durability of block programming. Mr. Masyr highlighted the stability and recessionary resilient qualities of block programming that is sold primarily to local and national non-profit ministries. Annual renewal rates exceed 95% and account for 29% of Salem’s total revenue. The stability of revenue from block programming provides a ballast to the cyclical nature of advertising revenue.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Joe Gomes, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Look-in on Programs. Yesterday, MustGrow announced the update on the Company’s biological programs with various partners Sumitomo, Bayer, Janssen PMP, and NexusBioAg. The update includes the soil biofumigation, postharvest food preservation, and bioherbicide of the Company’s mustard-derived technology.
Soil Biofumigation. Data regarding efficacy continue to remain positive, as the Company recently extended the program with Sumitomo that we highlighted in August. Sumitomo is working with MustGrow and the EPA in the registration approval process in the U.S. along with registration in Mexico. In Chile, the country approved an Experimental Use permit and registration work has commenced. Bayer has shown positive results in laboratory and greenhouse studies, and has new trials underway and further studies planned for Europe, Asia, and Africa.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Lee Enterprises, Incorporated provides local news, information, and advertising primarily in midsize markets in the United States. It publishes 49 daily newspapers, as well as offers 300 weekly newspapers and specialty publications in 23 states. The company also provides online advertising and services; and online infrastructure and online publishing services for approximately 1,500 daily and weekly newspapers and shoppers. In addition, it offers commercial printing services. The company has a strategic alliance with Yahoo!, Inc. to provide its classified employment advertising customer base the opportunity to post job listings and other employment products on Yahoo!�s HotJobs national platform. Lee Enterprises, Incorporated was founded in 1890 and is based in Davenport, Iowa.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Transferring pension liabilities. The company announced in its latest 8-K that it has agreed to purchase annuities from an insurance company with a portion of its pension plan assets, whereby it will transfer roughly $86 million in pension liabilities off the balance sheet.
A cleaner balance sheet. We view this development favorably, as it is a move to de-risk the balance sheet. Notably, the pension plan, which was already overfunded by roughly $1 million, is expected to increase the over funded amount by several million. The pension obligations are expected to decrease as interest rates rise, but this move de-risks the company from funding should interest rates fall.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Comstock (NYSE: LODE) innovates technologies that contribute to global decarbonization and circularity by efficiently converting under-utilized natural resources into renewable fuels and electrification products that contribute to balancing global uses and emissions of carbon. The Company intends to achieve exponential growth and extraordinary financial, natural, and social gains by building, owning, and operating a fleet of advanced carbon neutral extraction and refining facilities, by selling an array of complimentary process solutions and related services, and by licensing selected technologies to qualified strategic partners. To learn more, please visit www.comstock.inc.
Mark Reichman, Senior Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
U.S. Department of Energy grant application. Comstock filed a grant application with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to build a pre-pilot scale system to demonstrate one of its methods to produce renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, gasoline, and marine fuel from woody biomass utilizing Comstock’s technology and processes leading to greater yield, efficiency, and cost relative to other methods.
An impressive roster of grant participants. Comstock’s grant application is supported by an impressive roster of collaborators, including Marathon Petroleum Company LP, Topsoe Inc., Novozymes, Xylome Corporation, RenFuel K2B AB, Emerging Fuels Technology Inc., the University of Nevada, Reno, the University of Minnesota Duluth’s Natural Resources Research Institute, and the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Reports a strong year. The company reported another strong quarter. Q4 revenue of $267.7 million increased a strong 68% from year earlier levels and an impressive 42% above our estimate of $188.3 million. The strong revenue was attributed to favorable “walk-in” revenue. Adj. EBITDA was well above our estimate at $82.4 million, 45% higher than our forecast of $56.8 million.
The COVID bounce continues. Management noted the strong performance was driven in large part by a continuation of the COVID recovery. This is perhaps best illustrated by Group Event revenue which was $46 million, up 140% from the prior year period. Notably, the recovery of Event revenue will likely get an additional boost over the upcoming holiday season as year earlier results reflected lingering Covid issues.
This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).
*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision.
ARPA-H: High-Risk, High-Reward Health Research is the Mandate of New, Billion-Dollar US Agency
A new multibillion-dollar federal agency was created with a goal of supporting “the next generation of moonshots for health” in science, logistics, diversity and equality. And the agency now has it’s first leader, as President Joe Biden announced Renee Wegrzyn as director of the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health, or ARPA-H, on Sept. 12, 2022.
Since the announcement of the intention to establish ARPA-H two years ago, this new agency has sparked interest and questions within both academia and industry.
This article was republished with permission from The Conversation, a news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It represents the research-based findings and thoughts of Tong Sun, Assistant Dean of Translational Health Sciences, University of Washington.
I have been a director of innovation-driven health institutes for decades and have worked with many of the government agencies that fund science. I and many of my colleagues hope ARPA-H will become an agency that can quickly turn scientific discoveries into real-world advances to detect, prevent and treat diseases like cancer, diabetes and Alzheimer’s. But questions still remain surrounding how it will work and what makes it different from other government-funded agencies such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation.
What is ARPA-H?
ARPA-H is the newest entity established within the National Institutes of Health. ARPA-H was explicitly set up as an independent agency within NIH, in theory allowing it to benefit from the NIH’s vast scientific and administrative expertise and resources while still being nimble and forward-thinking.
ARPA-H was inspired by and modeled after the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, to rapidly develop cutting-edge technologies. DARPA is small compared to other federal research and development agencies, but has long been hugely successful. It played a critical role in spawning many technologies ranging from the internet to GPS, and even funded Moderna to develop mRNA vaccine technology in 2013.
ARPA-H is not the only DARPA spinoff. In 2006, the federal government created the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity to tackle difficult challenges in the intelligence community, and in 2009, the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Energy was launched. Though its budget is small compared to the Department of Energy, ARPA-E has been incredibly effective in funding ambitious research into fighting climate change. By funding ambitious mid- and long-term projects, IARPA, ARPA-E and now ARPA-H are meant to operate in between slow, government-funded basic research and short-term, profit-driven private sector venture capital.
ARPA-H is modeled after the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, which played a key role in developing many modern technologies, including personal computers. Tim Colegrove (Wikimedia Commons)
How Will the Agency Function?
Biden wants ARPA-H to replicate the success of DARPA, but in the health care realm, by providing “leadership for high-risk, high-reward biomedical and health research to speed application and implementation of health breakthroughs equitably.”
Established federal agencies like the NIH and the National Science Foundation prefer to fund more basic research and less risky projects compared to the high-risk, high-reward, applied science approach of DARPA. If ARPA-H wants to achieve the success of its predecessor, it will need to operate differently from NIH and NSF.
DARPA employs about 100 program managers who are “borrowed” from academia or industry for three to five years. These managers travel across the nation to meet with scientists and experts in different fields in order to generate ideas and start projects. These managers make funding decisions and work closely with their funded teams to overcome problems, but will cut funding if teams cannot deliver promised milestones on time. Many DARPA projects don’t produce spectacular successes, yet they pushed the boundaries of science and technology.
Many years ago, I had the privilege of working with a DARPA program manager alongside numerous experts in various scientific and medical fields. After several months of meetings, the program manager came up with the idea to develop “fracture putty” – a puttylike material that could be applied to the shattered bones of a wounded soldier in the battlefield. The material would support weight, prevent infection, expedite healing and bone regeneration and eventually dissolve away. The program launched in 2008, and our team of chemists, nanomaterials experts, bioengineers, mathematical modelers and surgeons was one of the funded teams in this program.
President Joe Biden appointed Renee Wegrzyn, a former DARPA project manager and biotech industry expert, to lead ARPA-H. Image: Renee Wegrzyn (@rwegrzyn)
Who is the New Director?
Wegrzyn holds a Ph.D. in molecular biology and bioengineering from Georgia Tech. She is currently a vice president of business development at Ginkgo Bioworks, a U.S. biotech company. Wegrzyn spent four and half years as a program manager in DARPA’s Biological Technologies Office, where she managed projects that focused on using genetic engineering and gene editing for biosecurity and public health. She also worked for another DARPA-inspired agency, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity.
At this moment, we don’t know yet the exact plan and progress in hiring APPA-H program managers and where APAR-H’s headquarters will be located. Several cities have expressed interest.
What Should People Look for as ARPA-H Gets Started?
DARPA is driven by talented, ambitious and risk-taking program managers. They are the ones who generate ideas and turn lofty goals into executable projects. It will be interesting to see how many and what kind of program managers ARPA-H hires in its early days, as these decisions will give an indication of which areas within health care the agency will be prioritizing.
I’ll also be watching to see how well ARPA-H and its program managers work within the NIH, which has an unbelievable depth of resources and expertise in all health care related fields that ARPA-H can tap into. But the NIH has very different funding mechanisms and culture from DARPA.
The final question is money. Biden wants US$6.5 billion in funding for ARPA-H, and he’s only gotten $1 billion from Congress so far. This is its first, biggest challenge. Finding political unity for funding may have to be this new agency’s first big breakthrough if it is to reach its goals.
