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Treasury Yields Drop Ahead of Election and Fed Decision

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– U.S. Treasury yields declined as investors shifted to safer assets amid election and Fed uncertainty.
– Polls show Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a dead heat, raising concerns about congressional control and potential policy impacts.
– A quarter-point rate cut is widely expected from the Federal Reserve this week, aimed at stimulating economic growth.

US Treasury yields fell on Monday as investors braced for a high-stakes week, with the upcoming U.S. presidential election and a key Federal Reserve rate decision poised to influence the economy and markets. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped nine basis points to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield decreased by over six basis points to 4.14%. These declines come as investors shift focus to safer assets amid election uncertainty and expected economic shifts. Yields, which move inversely to bond prices, reflected some caution as traders weigh potential election outcomes and their economic implications.

Polls indicate a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with NBC News showing the candidates locked at 49% each. Investors are particularly attentive to which party will control Congress, as this could dictate future policy moves, ranging from government spending to tax reforms. A split Congress would likely mean legislative gridlock, whereas a unified government might lead to significant policy changes. The election results could potentially impact stock markets, which experienced a volatile Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 225 points or 0.5%, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipping by 0.2%.

In addition to the election, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Thursday could mark another pivotal moment for markets. Analysts widely anticipate a quarter-point rate cut following the Fed’s recent 50 basis point cut in September. Traders are pricing in a 99% probability of this move, as tracked by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. A rate cut could reduce borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth, potentially offsetting some of the anticipated volatility tied to the election.

Also weighing on markets were economic data points, with September factory orders down 0.5% in line with expectations. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is due on Tuesday, and these indicators may provide additional insight into the economy’s current health as markets prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Thursday. Analysts suggest Powell’s statements could hint at the Fed’s future outlook for rates, as the central bank navigates a gradually slowing economy.

The shift towards Treasurys reflects a defensive stance by investors seeking stability amid looming uncertainties. Michael Zezas, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, suggested patience will be crucial for investors as they navigate potential market noise surrounding the election. The Treasury market’s reaction indicates some investors are bracing for turbulence in stocks if the election results lead to unexpected outcomes. The safe-haven nature of U.S. bonds offers a buffer for investors looking to mitigate risk in a potentially volatile environment.

Adding to market dynamics, Nvidia shares climbed 2% on Monday after it was announced the company would replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a change reflecting Nvidia’s year-to-date rise of 178% as it capitalizes on the AI sector. This development underscores a broader trend where technology and AI stocks remain central to market sentiment.

As election day approaches, financial markets are set to respond not only to the presidential outcome but also to shifts in Congress. With the Fed’s decision and further economic indicators expected this week, both equities and bond markets may experience heightened volatility, particularly if post-election policy signals lead to significant shifts in fiscal or monetary policy.

Release – Tonix Pharmaceuticals Presented Data on Potential Mpox Vaccine TNX-801 at World Vaccine Congress-Europe 2024

Posted on by aweinsoff@channelchek.com

Research News and Market Data on TNXP

November 01, 2024 7:00am EDT Download as PDF

New data show tolerability and no evidence of spreading to blood or tissues even at high doses of Tonix’s attenuated live-virus, minimally replicating vaccine candidate TNX-801 in immunocompromised animals

TNX-801, has characteristics that align closely with the World Health Organization’s (WHO) preferred target product profile (TPP) criteria for mpox vaccines

WHO-declared public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)1-4: Mpox cases of the new clade Ib mpox detected in Sweden, Thailand, Singapore, India, Germany and England

TNX-801 vaccination demonstrated efficacy in protecting animals from lethal challenge with clade I monkeypox and is in development as an mpox vaccine

CHATHAM, N.J., Nov. 01, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (Nasdaq: TNXP) (Tonix or the Company), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with marketed products and a pipeline of development candidates, presented data in an oral presentation at the World Vaccine Congress-Europe 2024, held October 28-31, 2024 in Barcelona, Spain. A copy of the Company’s presentation is available under the Scientific Presentations tab of the Tonix website at www.tonixpharma.com following the conference.

The presentation titled, “A Novel, Single-dose, Live, Attenuated, Minimally Replicating Mpox Vaccine”, highlighted positive preclinical efficacy data, demonstrating tolerability in immunocompromised animals and showed that TNX-801 is unable to spread in blood or tissues in these animals, even at an approximately 100-fold higher dose than 20th century vaccinia vaccines.

TNX-801 is an attenuated live-virus vaccine based on synthesized horsepox that has been shown to provide single-dose immune protection against a monkeypox challenge with better tolerability than 20th century vaccinia live-virus vaccines in animals. TNX-801 has previously been shown to protect animals against lethal challenge with intratracheal clade I monkeypox virus.1 After a single dose vaccination, TNX-801 prevented clinical disease and lesions and also decreased shedding in the mouth and lungs of animals challenged with clade I monkeypox.1 These findings are consistent with TNX-801 inducing mucosal immunity and suggest TNX-801 has the ability to block forward transmission. An outbreak of clade I mpox has recently been declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO).2,3 Starting from an outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, clade I mpox has spread to sixteen Central African Countries and cases have been reported in Sweden, Thailand, Singapore, India, Germany and England. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other experts, there is a significant risk that clade I strain may appear in the U.S.4

“Data continue to support TNX-801’s strong tolerability and efficacy profiles by continually displaying protective immunity to animals with single-dose administration,” said Seth Lederman, M.D., Chief Executive Officer of Tonix. “Synthetic biology is an important technology for vaccine development as viral diseases continue to rapidly evolve. The new data demonstrate that TNX-801 is highly attenuated relative to 20th century vaccinia vaccines in immunocompromised animals.5 With TNX-801’s target profile, favorable shipping and storing requirements and our manufacturing collaboration agreements, we believe TNX-801 is in a strong position to make an impact towards preventing mpox and control mpox epidemics.”

In September 2024, Tonix announced that the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) preferred target product profile (TPP), released at the WHO sponsored Mpox Research and Innovation Scientific Conference, aligns with the characteristics of TNX-801. Key elements of the WHO draft TPP include single-dose, durable protection, administration without special equipment, and stability at ambient temperature. Other potential beneficial characteristics include the ability to limit forward transmission, use in case-contact vaccination strategies and suitability for use in immunocompromised individuals.  

In August 2024, Tonix announced a collaboration with Bilthoven Biologics (Bbio) to develop GMP manufacturing processes for its mpox vaccine. Bbio is part of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, the Cyrus Poonawalla Group, which also includes the Serum Institute of India.

About TNX-801*
TNX-801 is a live replicating attenuated vaccine based on horsepox that is believed to provide immune protection with better tolerability than 20th century vaccinia viruses. As previously disclosed, TNX-801 protected animals against lethal challenge with intratracheal clade I monkeypox virus.1 After a single dose vaccination, TNX-801 prevented clinical disease and lesions and also decreased shedding in the mouth and lungs of non-human primates.1 The Findings are consistent with mucosal immunity and suggest the ability to block forward transmission, similar to Dr. Edward Jenner’s vaccinia vaccine, which eradicated smallpox and kept mpox out of the human population. On August 26, 2024, Tonix announced a collaboration to develop GMP manufacturing processes for its mpox vaccine with Bilthoven Biologics (Bbio), part of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, the Cyrus Poonawalla Group, which also includes the Serum Institute of India.

On the horsepox platform, Tonix is developing TNX-1800 (horsepox expressing SARS-CoV-2 spike protein) for protecting against COVID-19. TNX-1800 is an engineered version of horsepox that expresses the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. In preclinical studies of TNX-1800 highlighted in the presentation, TNX-1800 was tested for immunogenicity and efficacy of TNX-1800 in nonhuman primates following a SARS CoV-2 challenge. 6,7 TNX-1800 vaccination results in a neutralizing antibody response that was associated with significant reduction in virus replication/shedding in the respiratory tract and tolerability. 2,3 TNX-1800 was selected by the NIH’s, Project NextGen for inclusion in clinical trials as part of a select group of next generation COVID-19 vaccine candidates with the intent to identify promising vaccine platforms. NIH plans to conduct a Phase 1 trial of TNX-1800 and cover the full cost of the study, while Tonix provides the vaccine candidate.

About Mpox*
On August 14, 2024, the WHO determined that the upsurge of mpox in a growing number of countries in Africa constitutes a public health emergency of international concern, the second such declaration in the past two years called in response to an mpox outbreak. The current outbreak was caused by clade I monkeypox virus, while the 2022 outbreak was clade II monkeypox virus. The global mpox outbreak, which commenced in 2022 has affected over 90,000 persons in countries where mpox had previously not been endemic, including Europe and the US. The spread of clade IIb strain mpox in 2022 underscores the pandemic potential of mpox. Unlike clade IIb mpox, the clade I strain of mpox appears to be spreading to countries neighboring the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other experts, there is a significant risk that the deadlier clade I strain may appear in the U.S.4

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.*
Tonix is a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company focused on transforming therapies for pain management and modernizing solutions for public health challenges. Tonix’s development portfolio is focused on central nervous system (CNS) disorders, and its priority is to progress TNX-102 SL, a product candidate for which an NDA was submitted based on two statistically significant Phase 3 studies for the management of fibromyalgia. The FDA has granted Fast Track designation to TNX-102 SL for the management of fibromyalgia. TNX-102 SL is also being developed to treat acute stress reaction and acute stress disorder under a Physician-Initiated IND at the University of North Carolina in the OASIS study funded by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). Tonix’s CNS portfolio includes TNX-1300 (cocaine esterase), a biologic in Phase 2 development designed to treat cocaine intoxication that has FDA Breakthrough Therapy designation and its development is supported by a grant from the U.S. National Institude of Drug Abuse and Addiction. Tonix’s immunology development portfolio consists of biologics to address organ transplant rejection, autoimmunity and cancer, including TNX-1500, which is an Fc-modified humanized monoclonal antibody targeting CD40-ligand (CD40L or CD154) being developed for the prevention of allograft rejection and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. Tonix also has product candidates in development in the areas of rare disease, including TNX-2900 for Prader-Willi syndrome, and infectious disease, including a vaccine for mpox, TNX-801. Tonix recently announced a contract with the U.S. DoD’s Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) for up to $34 million over five years to develop TNX-4200, small molecule broad-spectrum antiviral agents targeting CD45 for the prevention or treatment of infections to improve the medical readiness of military personnel in biological threat environments. Tonix owns and operates a state-of-the art infectious disease research facility in Frederick, MD. Tonix Medicines, our commercial subsidiary, markets Zembrace® SymTouch® (sumatriptan injection) 3 mg and Tosymra® (sumatriptan nasal spray) 10 mg for the treatment of acute migraine with or without aura in adults.

*Tonix’s product development candidates are investigational new drugs or biologics and have not been approved for any indication.

Zembrace SymTouch and Tosymra are registered trademarks of Tonix Medicines. All other marks are property of their respective owners.

This press release and further information about Tonix can be found at www.tonixpharma.com.

1Noyce RS, et al. Viruses. 2023 Jan 26;15(2):356. Doi: 10.3390/v15020356. PMID: 36851570; PMCID: PMC9965234
2WHO Press Release August 14, 2024. “WHO Director-General declares mpox outbrfeak a public health emergency of international concern”. URL: www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern (accessed 8-15-24)
3McQuiston JH, et al. U.S. Preparedness and Response to Increasing Clade I Mpox Cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 2024, MMWR Morbi Mortal Wkly Rep: United States. p. 435-440
4CDC. 2022-2023 Mpox: US Map and Case Count.
5Trefry, SV et al. bioRxiv 2023.10.25.564033; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.10.25.564033
6Awasthi M et al Vaccines (Basel). 2023 11(11):1682. doi: 10.3390/vaccines11111682.PMID: 38006014
7Awasthi M, et al. Viruses. 2023 15(10):2131. doi: 10.3390/v15102131. PMID: 37896908; PMCID: PMC10612059.

Forward Looking Statements
Certain statements in this press release are forward-looking within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements may be identified by the use of forward-looking words such as “anticipate,” “believe,” “forecast,” “estimate,” “expect,” and “intend,” among others. These forward-looking statements are based on Tonix’s current expectations and actual results could differ materially. There are a number of factors that could cause actual events to differ materially from those indicated by such forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are not limited to, risks related to the failure to obtain FDA clearances or approvals and noncompliance with FDA regulations; risks related to the failure to successfully market any of our products; risks related to the timing and progress of clinical development of our product candidates; our need for additional financing; uncertainties of patent protection and litigation; uncertainties of government or third party payor reimbursement; limited research and development efforts and dependence upon third parties; and substantial competition. As with any pharmaceutical under development, there are significant risks in the development, regulatory approval and commercialization of new products. Tonix does not undertake an obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. Investors should read the risk factors set forth in the Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on April 1, 2024, and periodic reports filed with the SEC on or after the date thereof. All of Tonix’s forward-looking statements are expressly qualified by all such risk factors and other cautionary statements. The information set forth herein speaks only as of the date thereof.

Investor Contact

Jessica Morris
Tonix Pharmaceuticals
investor.relations@tonixpharma.com
(862) 904-8182

Peter Vozzo
ICR Healthcare
peter.vozzo@westwicke.com
(443) 213-0505

Media Contact

Ray Jordan
Putnam Insights
ray@putnaminsights.com
(949) 245-5432

Primary Logo

Source: Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.

Released November 1, 2024

Release – IP Survey Commences at Aurania’s Kuri-Yawi Gold Target in Ecuador

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on AUIAF

Toronto, Ontario–(Newsfile Corp. – November 1, 2024) – Aurania Resources Ltd. (TSXV: ARU) (OTCQB: AUIAF) (FSE: 20Q) (“Aurania” or the “Company”) announces the start of the induced polarization (IP) geophysical survey at its Kuri-Yawi project in southeastern Ecuador. The survey is being carried out by the geophysics company GexplOre, which has extensive experience developing this technique within the Amazon rainforest. The geophysicists have arrived in the field last week following the completion of the line-cutting preparation work.

Kuri-Yawi is the most advanced epithermal target in the Company’s Cutucu project. The discovery of numerous sinters by the Aurania team in 2018 highlighted the area as highly prospective for epithermal gold mineralization. Extensive fieldwork subsequently conducted in the area, including geology, soil geochemistry and a Mobile MagnetoTellurics (MobileMT) airborne survey led to the drilling of nine scout holes during 2020 and 2021 to investigate the soil anomalies at depth. The results of the program indicated a vector to mineralization toward the northeast, the subject area of the current IP survey. Subsequent prospecting in this area discovered thallium-rich chalcedony veins (see Figure 1). Importantly, thallium is a volatile element often present in the upper parts of epithermal deposits. As well, TerraSpec infrared analyses of the alteration minerals in this area show typical epithermal chlorite-smectite-illite zonation towards the vein zone. The presence of these minerals suggests an intense hydrothermal alteration in the center of an epithermal system, which is interpreted to be responsible for the demagnetization of rocks observed in the area and also shown on the 2017 magnetic airborne survey (see Figure 2).

The IP survey is designed to identify deep conductors that could correspond to gold mineralization, and to target drill holes for the planned program in 2025. The IP survey is expected to be completed by mid-December 2024, with results expected in early 2025 following a review and interpretation of the data.



Figure 1: Alteration zonation by TerraSpec survey on the outcrop and thallium results from outcrop at Kuri Yawi.

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/2477/228557_042c330914c91bcc_001full.jpg



Figure 2: Magnetic airborne anomalies (blue areas indicate low magnetic conductivity and warm colours such as red-pink are highly magnetic) and thallium results on outcrop at Kuri Yawi.

To view an enhanced version of this graphic, please visit:
https://images.newsfilecorp.com/files/2477/228557_042c330914c91bcc_002full.jpg

Sample Analysis & Quality Assurance / Quality Control (“QAQC”)

Laboratories: The samples were prepared for analysis at ALS Global’s (“ALS”) lab in Quito, or at MS Analytical (“MSA”) in Cuenca, Ecuador. Analysis by ALS was done in Lima, Peru, and MSA conducted their analyses in Vancouver, Canada.

Sample preparation: Rock samples were jaw-crushed to 10 mesh (crushed material passes through a mesh with apertures of 2 millimetres (“mm”)), from which a one-kilogram sub-sample was taken. The sub-sample was crushed to a grain size of 0.075mm and a 200g split was set aside for analysis.

Analytical procedure: A 0.5g split of the -0.075mm fraction of rock samples underwent digestion by four-acids, and the liquid was analyzed for 48 elements by ICP-MS. Gold was analyzed by fire assay with an ICP-AES finish.

QAQC: Aurania personnel inserted a certified standard pulp sample, alternating with a field blank, at approximate 20 sample intervals in all sample batches. Aurania’s analysis of results from its independent QAQC samples showed the batches reported on above, lie within acceptable limits. In addition, the labs reported that the analyses had passed their internal QAQC tests.

Qualified Persons:

The geological information contained in this news release has been verified and approved by Aurania’s VP Exploration, Mr. Jean-Paul Pallier, MSc. Mr. Pallier is a designated EurGeol by the European Federation of Geologists and a Qualified Person as defined by National Instrument 43-101, Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects of the Canadian Securities Administrators.

About Aurania

Aurania is a mineral exploration company engaged in the identification, evaluation, acquisition, and exploration of mineral property interests, with a focus on precious metals and copper in South America. Its flagship asset, The Lost Cities – Cutucú Project, is located in the Jurassic Metallogenic Belt in the eastern foothills of the Andes mountain range of southeastern Ecuador.

Information on Aurania and technical reports are available at www.aurania.com and www.sedarplus.ca, as well as on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/auranialtd/, Twitter at https://twitter.com/auranialtd, and LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/company/aurania-resources-ltd-.

For further information, please contact:

Carolyn Muir
VP Corporate Development & Investor Relations
Aurania Resources Ltd.
(416) 367-3200
carolyn.muir@aurania.com

Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.

Forward-Looking Statements

This news release contains forward-looking information as such term is defined in applicable securities laws, which relate to future events or future performance and reflect management’s current expectations and assumptions. The forward-looking information includes Aurania’s objectives, goals or future plans, statements, exploration results, potential mineralization, the corporation’s portfolio, treasury, management team and enhanced capital markets profile, the estimation of mineral resources, exploration, timing of the commencement of operations, the Company’s teams being on track ahead of any drill program, the commencement of any drill program and estimates of market conditions. Such forward-looking statements reflect management’s current beliefs and are based on assumptions made by and information currently available to Aurania, including the assumption that, there will be no material adverse change in metal prices, all necessary consents, licenses, permits and approvals will be obtained, including various local government licenses and the market. Investors are cautioned that these forward-looking statements are neither promises nor guarantees and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause future results to differ materially from those expected. Risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the results expressed or implied by the forward-looking information include, among other things: commodity prices, supply chain disruptions, restrictions on labour and workplace attendance and local and international travel; a failure to obtain or delays in obtaining the required regulatory licenses, permits, approvals and consents; an inability to access financing as needed; a general economic downturn, a volatile stock price, labour strikes, political unrest, changes in the mining regulatory regime governing Aurania; a failure to comply with environmental regulations; a weakening of market and industry reliance on precious metals and base metals; and those risks set out in the Company’s public documents filed on SEDAR+. Aurania cautions the reader that the above list of risk factors is not exhaustive. Although the Company believes that the assumptions and factors used in preparing the forward-looking information in this news release are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on such information, which only applies as of the date of this news release, and no assurance can be given that such events will occur in the disclosed time frames or at all. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, other than as required by law.

info

SOURCE: Aurania Resources Ltd.

Release – Commercial Vehicle Group Announces New Executive Appointments to Accelerate Performance

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on CVGI

NEW ALBANY, Ohio, Oct. 31, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Commercial Vehicle Group (the “Company” or “CVG”) (NASDAQ: CVGI), a diversified industrial products and services company, is pleased to announce the appointment of two leaders to its executive leadership team. Peter Lugo joins the Company as President of our Electrical Systems segment, effective November 1, 2024. Mr. Lugo succeeds Richard Tajer, who will remain an employee of the Company until December 31, 2024. In addition, Carlos Jimenez has joined as Executive Vice President, Global Operations and Supply Chain. These appointments support CVG’s goals of growing its Electrical Systems business and improving overall operational execution, respectively. Both executives will report to James Ray, President and Chief Executive Officer of CVG.

To reinvigorate growth in its Electrical Systems segment, Mr. Lugo is accountable for day-to-day oversight of the electrical business with emphasis on the development and execution of commercial, engineering, and product management strategies while partnering with the operations team to achieve operational and financial goals. He most recently held the role of Senior Vice President, Electrical Products & Engineered Solutions at Southwire, where he led the development and execution of the overall business strategy resulting in sustainable growth through organic and M&A activity, including five acquisitions. Prior to his work at Southwire, Mr. Lugo held progressive leadership roles at Bullard, Eaton Corp., Phillips Petroleum, Switchgear Systems, and General Electric. He holds a bachelor’s degree in electrical engineering from Polytechnical University of Puerto Rico.

To drive operational efficiencies across its manufacturing and supply network, Mr. Jimenez is responsible for the effective operation of the Company’s manufacturing function, developing and executing supply chain strategies and capabilities across CVG’s 20+ plant global manufacturing footprint. He most recently held the role of Vice President, Global Operations at Kennametal, Inc., where he was responsible for supply chain, operational excellence and distribution across 17 plants and 12 distribution centers. Prior to his work at Kennametal, Mr. Jimenez held progressive leadership roles at Stanley Black and Decker, Valeo Group, GKN Driveline, Mars Electronics International, Apisa and Ford Motor Company. He holds a bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering and a degree in business administration, management and operations from INSEAD.

“I extend my thanks to Rich Tajer for his leadership over the last five years. I am very pleased to welcome Peter and Carlos to the CVG executive leadership team, where they will have a critical role helping to position CVG for future success,” said Mr. Ray. “I am confident that these proven executives will accelerate our efforts to navigate some of the challenges we’ve experienced this year and emerge stronger and more resilient than before to best serve the needs of our customers and shareholders.”

About CVG

At CVG, we deliver real solutions to complex design, engineering and manufacturing problems while creating positive change for our customers, industries, and communities we serve. Information about CVG and its products is available at www.cvgrp.com.

Investor Relations Contact:Media Contact:
Ross Collins or Stephen PoePatrick Woolford
Alpha IR GroupDirector, Communications
CVGI@alpha-ir.com Patrick.Woolford@cvgrp.com 

Release – Comtech Announces Results for its Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2024

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on CMTL

CHANDLER, Ariz. – Oct. 31, 2024– In a letter to shareholders, Comtech (NASDAQ: CMTL) today announced that its fourth quarter fiscal 2024 financial results are now available.

Investors are invited to access the fourth quarter fiscal 2024 shareholder letter at its website at comtech.com/investors/. A copy of the letter will also be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in a Form 8-K.

Comtech also intends to host a previously scheduled earnings conference call at 4:30 p.m. ET today. Individuals can access the conference call by dialing (800) 267-6316 (primary) or (203) 518-9783 (alternate) and using the conference I.D. of “Comtech.” A replay of the conference call will be available for two weeks by dialing (888) 225-1190 or (402) 220-4971. A live webcast of the call is also available at comtech.com/investors/.

About Comtech

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. is a leading global technology company providing terrestrial and wireless network solutions, next-generation 9-1-1 emergency services, satellite and space communications technologies, and cloud native capabilities to commercial and government customers around the world. Our unique culture of innovation and employee empowerment unleashes a relentless passion for customer success. With multiple facilities located in technology corridors throughout the United States and around the world, Comtech leverages our global presence, technology leadership, and decades of experience to create the world’s most innovative communications solutions.For more information, please visit www.comtech.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain information in this press release contains statements that are forward-looking in nature and involve certain significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results and performance could differ materially from such forward-looking information. The Company’s Securities and Exchange Commission filings identify many such risks and uncertainties. Any forward-looking information in this press release is qualified in its entirety by the risks and uncertainties described in such Securities and Exchange Commission filings.

Investor Relations

Maria Ceriello

631-962-7115

Maria.Ceriello@comtech.com

Release – ACCO Brands Reports Third Quarter Results

Posted on by dburczyk@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data for ACCO

  • Reported net sales of $421 million at the mid-point of outlook
  • Earnings per share of $0.09; adjusted EPS of $0.23
  • On track to achieve over $20 million in cost savings for the full year 2024 through a multi-year cost savings program
  • Net operating cash flow improved by $25 million
  • Reduced consolidated leverage ratio to 3.5x at quarter-end
  • Maintaining 2024 outlook for sales, adjusted EPS and cash flow
  • Refinanced the credit facilities, extending the maturity date to 2029

LAKE ZURICH, Ill.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– ACCO Brands Corporation (NYSE: ACCO) today reported financial results for its third quarter and nine months ended September 30, 2024.

“We are pleased to report third quarter results that were in line with our expectations, with overall sales trends improving in the third quarter compared to the first half of the year. We continue to make progress on our cost reduction and infrastructure initiatives, which allowed us to deliver another quarter of improved gross margin and cash flow. Our robust cash flow enabled us to reduce debt and return capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. We ended the quarter with a lower leverage ratio than the prior year and successfully refinanced our credit facilities. We now have no significant debt maturities until 2029,” stated ACCO Brands’ President and Chief Executive Officer, Tom Tedford.

“We’re advancing our strategy as we continue to improve our innovation and new product development processes, expand into new points of distribution and extend our product offering into adjacent categories. In addition, given our improved balance sheet and strong cash flow, we are able to consider potential acquisitions. These initiatives, combined with our $60 million multi-year cost reduction program, are strengthening our competitive position,” concluded Mr. Tedford.

Third Quarter Results

Net sales were $420.9 million, down 6.0 percent from $448.0 million in 2023. Adverse foreign exchange reduced sales by $4.4 million, or 1.0 percent. Comparable sales decreased 5.0 percent. Both reported and comparable sales declines reflect softer back-to-school purchases by our customers in Latin America and North America. Additionally, global demand was weaker for certain office-related products. The exit of lower margin business in North America accounted for approximately 2.0 percent of the decline. These declines were partially offset by growth in the technology accessories categories.

Operating income was $26.3 million versus operating income of $32.2 million in 2023. Restructuring expense was $6.7 million versus $3.0 million in the prior year. Adjusted operating income was $44.7 million, down from $46.0 million in 2023. Both reported and adjusted operating income declines reflect lower sales volume, which was partially offset by cost reduction initiatives and lower incentive compensation expense.

Net income was $9.3 million, or $0.09 per share, compared with prior-year net income of $14.9 million, or $0.15 per share, in 2023. Adjusted net income was $22.5 million compared with $23.1 million in 2023, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.23 per share compared to $0.24 per share in the prior year.

Business Segment Results

ACCO Brands Americas – Third quarter segment net sales of $259.1 million decreased 8.9 percent from $284.4 million in the prior year. Adverse foreign exchange, primarily in Brazil and Mexico, reduced sales by 2.3 percent. Comparable sales were $265.5 million, down 6.6 percent versus the prior year. Both reported and comparable sales decreases were attributable to moderating demand trends in Latin America and lower replenishment for back-to-school products in North America. The exit of lower margin business accounted for approximately 3.0 percent of the decline. These declines were partially offset by growth in the technology accessories categories.

Third quarter operating income was $25.9 million versus operating income of $33.8 million a year earlier. Restructuring expense was $3.4 million in 2024. Adjusted operating income was $36.7 million, down from $40.0 million in the prior year. Both reported and adjusted operating income declines reflect lower sales volume, partially offset by cost reduction initiatives and lower incentive compensation expense.

ACCO Brands International – Third quarter segment net sales of $161.8 million decreased 1.1 percent from $163.6 million in the prior year. Favorable foreign exchange increased sales by 1.2 percent. Comparable sales were $159.8 million, down 2.3 percent versus the prior year. Both reported and comparable sales declines reflect reduced demand for certain office products, partially offset by growth in the technology accessories categories and the benefit of price increases.

Third quarter operating income was $9.5 million, an increase from $9.4 million in the prior year, with adjusted operating income of $17.1 million compared with $17.0 million in the prior year. The improvement reflects the benefit of cost reduction actions offsetting the impact of lower sales volume.

Nine Month Results

Net sales were $1,218.1 million down 9.4 percent from $1,344.2 million in 2023. Adverse foreign exchange reduced sales by $7.4 million, or 0.6 percent. Comparable sales decreased 8.8 percent. Both reported and comparable sales declines reflect softer global consumer and business demand for certain product categories, and our exit of lower margin business in North America, which accounted for approximately 3.0 percent of the decline.

Operating loss was $79.0 million versus operating income of $97.5 million in 2023, primarily due to non-cash impairment charges of $165.2 million related to goodwill and intangible assets within the Americas segment. Adjusted operating income was $125.5 million, down from $136.5 million in 2023. Both reported and adjusted operating income (loss) declines reflect lower sales volume, partially offset by improved product mix, cost reduction initiatives and lower incentive compensation expense.

Net loss was $122.2 million, or $(1.27) per share, compared with a net income of $37.6 million, or $0.39 per share, in 2023, primarily due to the non-cash impairment charges of $165.2 million related to goodwill and intangible assets and changes in discrete tax items. Adjusted net income was $61.7 million compared with $68.1 million in 2023, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.63 per share compared with $0.70 per share in 2023.

Capital Allocation

Year to date, the Company improved its operating cash flow to $95.5 million versus a cash flow of $70.7 million in the prior year, driven primarily by working capital management. The Company’s consolidated leverage ratio as of September 30, 2024 was 3.5x down from 3.8x at the end of the prior-year third quarter.

In the third quarter, the Company repurchased 2.4 million shares for $12.5 million

On October 25, 2024, ACCO Brands announced that its board of directors declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.075 per share. The dividend will be paid on December 11, 2024 to stockholders of record at the close of business on November 15, 2024. At the current stock price, on an annualized basis, our shareholders are receiving an approximate 6 percent yield on their investment.

Bank Refinancing

Effective October 30, 2024, the Company extended the maturity of its credit facilities to 2029.

Full Year 2024 Outlook

The Company is reaffirming its full year 2024 outlook. For the full year, the Company expects reported sales to be down in the range of 8.0% to 9.0%. Full year adjusted EPS is expected to be within a range of $1.04 to $1.09. The Company expects 2024 free cash flow of approximately $130 million with a consolidated leverage ratio decreasing to approximately 3.2x at year-end.

“As we approach year-end and look ahead to next year, our cost reduction actions should allow us the ability to maintain our solid margins, contain expenses and generate strong cash flow. I remain confident in our team’s ability to continue to successfully execute on our $60 million multi-year cost reduction program. The progress we have made reducing debt will enable us to invest in the future,” concluded Mr. Tedford.

Webcast

At 8:30 a.m. ET on November 1, 2024, ACCO Brands Corporation will host a conference call to discuss the Company’s third quarter 2024 results. The call will be broadcast live via webcast. The webcast can be accessed through the Investor Relations section of www.accobrands.com. The webcast will be in listen-only mode and will be available for replay following the event.

About ACCO Brands Corporation

ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, designs, manufactures and markets consumer and end-user products that help people work, learn, and play. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Five Star®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Swingline®, Tilibra® and many others. More information about ACCO Brands Corporation (NYSE: ACCO) can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

In addition to financial results reported in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), we have provided certain non-GAAP financial information in this earnings release to aid investors in understanding the Company’s performance. Each non-GAAP financial measure is defined and reconciled to its most directly comparable GAAP financial measure in the “About Non-GAAP Financial Measures” section of this earnings release.

Forward-Looking Statements

Statements contained herein, other than statements of historical fact, particularly those anticipating future financial performance, business prospects, growth, strategies, business operations and similar matters, results of operations, liquidity and financial condition, and those relating to cost reductions and anticipated pre-tax savings and restructuring costs are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on the beliefs and assumptions of management based on information available to us at the time such statements are made. These statements, which are generally identifiable by the use of the words “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “plan,” and similar expressions, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, are made as of the date hereof, and we undertake no duty or obligation to update them. Forward-looking statements are subject to the occurrence of events outside the Company’s control and actual results and the timing of events may differ materially from those suggested or implied by such forward-looking statements due to numerous factors that involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Investors and others are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements when deciding whether to buy, sell or hold the Company’s securities.

Our outlook is based on certain assumptions which we believe to be reasonable under the circumstances. These include, without limitation, assumptions regarding the impact of inflation and global geopolitical and economic uncertainties and fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; and the other factors described below.

Among the factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements are: a limited number of large customers account for a significant percentage of our sales; sales of our products are affected by general economic and business conditions globally and in the countries in which we operate; risks associated with foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations; challenges related to the highly competitive business environment in which we operate; our ability to develop and market innovative products that meet consumer demands and to expand into new and adjacent product categories that are experiencing higher growth rates; the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic; our ability to successfully expand our business in emerging markets and the exposure to greater financial, operational, regulatory, compliance and other risks in such markets; the continued decline in the use of certain of our products; risks associated with seasonality, the sufficiency of investment returns on pension assets, risks related to actuarial assumptions, changes in government regulations and changes in the unfunded liabilities of a multi-employer pension plan; any impairment of our intangible assets; our ability to secure, protect and maintain our intellectual property rights, and our ability to license rights from major gaming console makers and video game publishers to support our gaming accessories business; our ability to successfully execute our multi-year restructuring and cost savings program and realize the anticipated benefits; continued disruptions in the global supply chain; risks associated with inflation and other changes in the cost or availability of raw materials, transportation, labor, and other necessary supplies and services and the cost of finished goods; risks associated with outsourcing production of certain of our products, information technology systems and other administrative functions; the failure, inadequacy or interruption of our information technology systems or its supporting infrastructure; risks associated with a cybersecurity incident or information security breach, including that related to a disclosure of personally identifiable information; our ability to grow profitably through acquisitions, and successfully integrate them; risks associated with our indebtedness, including limitations imposed by restrictive covenants, our debt service obligations, and our ability to comply with financial ratios and tests; a change in or discontinuance of our stock repurchase program or the payment of dividends; product liability claims, recalls or regulatory actions; the impact of litigation or other legal proceedings; the impact of additional tax liabilities stemming from our global operations and changes in tax laws, regulations and tax rates; our failure to comply with applicable laws, rules and regulations and self-regulatory requirements, the costs of compliance and the impact of changes in such laws; our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel; the volatility of our stock price; risks associated with circumstances outside our control, including those caused by telecommunication failures, labor strikes, power and/or water shortages, public health crises, such as the occurrence of contagious diseases, severe weather events, war, terrorism and other geopolitical incidents; and other risks and uncertainties described in “Part I, Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, and in other reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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NN, Inc. (NNBR) – Accelerating on its Transformation

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 01, 2024

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adjusted Results. Adjusted net loss during the quarter was $2.5 million, or $0.05 per share compared to adjusted net income of $0.1 million or $0.01 last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $11.6 million, or a margin of 10.2%, compared to last year’s $14.5 million or 11.6%. Both items were impacted by the Company’s rationalization of plants undergoing turnarounds and the sale of the Lubbock plastic plant operations.

Accelerated Transformation. Management has been accelerating its transformation initiatives, as the Company continues to win business, nearing the lower end of guidance for the year, and is continuously undergoing cost reduction, including $2 million in annualized cost savings enacted in the third quarter. New business wins bring over higher margins for NN at over 20% compared to the legacy business at around 11%, providing higher gross margins overtime as legacy contracts become more offset.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Haynes International (HAYN) – Lowering Estimates to Reflect Anticipated Negative Revenue Impact of Boeing Strike

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 01, 2024

Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Boeing strike. In fiscal year 2023 and for the first nine months of fiscal 2024, aerospace represented 49% and 51% of Haynes’ net revenue. A significant portion of the company’s aerospace sales are dependent on the number of aircraft built by The Boeing Company and Airbus. On September 13, Boeing union members went on strike after rejecting a contract proposal from the company. Boeing has extended a pause on component shipments for several of its programs. While we are hopeful that the strike will be resolved soon, we expect it to have a negative impact on Haynes’ fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 which ended September 30 and the first quarter of fiscal year 2025 which ends on December 31, 2024. Seasonally, the first quarter of the fiscal year is generally the company’s weakest.

Updating estimates. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPS estimates to $67.4 million and $2.46, respectively, from $68.5 million and $2.52. The revisions reflect weaker demand in the aerospace segment and lower sales expectations for the fourth quarter. Our expectations for weaker demand extend into fiscal year 2025, and we have lowered our EBITDA and EPS estimates to $82.5 million and $3.35, respectively, from $99.5 million and $4.15. Our revisions reflect lower shipment, revenue, and margin expectations, particularly during the first half of the year.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) – Islet Cell Transplant Results Are A Breakthrough For Diabetes

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 01, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Islet Cell Transplant Patients Achieve Insulin Independence. A clinical study using tegoprubart as an immunosuppressant in islet cell transplantation was presented at a medical meeting on Tuesday, October 29, 2024. The first two subjects receiving islet cell transplants with tegoprubart as an immunosuppressant were able to regulate their blood glucose and achieve insulin independence. We see this as a significant advance that could enable islet cell transplantation to become a treatment for diabetes.

Tegoprubart Prevented The Toxicities That Have Led To Failure. Previous attempts to transplant healthy islet cells to restore insulin production have been unsuccessful. This is partly due to side effects of tacrolimus, the immunosuppression drug that is effective but toxic to the kidney and islet cells. This trial used tegoprubart instead of tacrolimus, resulting in islet cells surviving, engrafting, and producing insulin at effective levels.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ACCO Brands (ACCO) – 3Q24 First Look

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 01, 2024

ACCO Brands Corporation is one of the world’s largest designers, marketers and manufacturers of branded academic, consumer and business products. Our widely recognized brands include AT-A-GLANCE®, Esselte®, Five Star®, GBC®, Kensington®, Leitz®, Mead®, PowerA®, Quartet®, Rapid®, Rexel®, Swingline®, Tilibra®, and many others. Our products are sold in more than 100 countries around the world. More information about ACCO Brands, the Home of Great Brands Built by Great People, can be found at www.accobrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

3Q24. ACCO is beginning to see the fruits of its cost reduction and infrastructure initiatives with 3Q24 results in line with expectations and overall sales trends improving in the third quarter compared to the first half of the year. Gross margin expanded by 20 basis points-the seventh consecutive quarter of improvement-and SG&A costs were down 7% y-o-y. 

Details. Revenue of $420.9 million was down 6% on a reported basis y-o-y, with comp sales off 5%, reflecting softer back-to-school demand as well as for certain office products, although technology accessories saw growth. We had projected revenue of $418 million. Reported operating income was $26.3 million. Adjusted operating income was $44.7 million, down from $46 million in 3Q23. GAAP net income was $9.3 million, or $0.09/sh, with adjusted net income of $22.5 million, or $0.23/sh. In 3Q23, ACCO reported net income of $14.9 million, or $0.15/sh, and adjusted net income of $23.1 million, or $0.24/sh. We were at $0.15/sh and $0.24/sh, respectively. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

October Jobs Report Reveals Sharp Slowdown Amid Strikes and Weather Impacts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– October saw a low 12,000 jobs added, largely due to strikes and weather impacts.
– Unemployment remained at 4.1%, while wage growth rose to 4.1% year-over-year.
– Fed rate cut likelihood increased to 99% following this report.

The US labor market added only 12,000 jobs in October, significantly below the anticipated 100,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This marked a sharp slowdown from September’s revised 223,000 job gain and reflected several temporary pressures, including a Boeing worker strike and recent hurricanes. However, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, as the BLS noted that different data collection methods account for the varying indicators.

Manufacturing saw the biggest impact, with a 46,000 job decline largely attributed to the strike, while weather disruptions affected employment across multiple industries. Wage growth, a critical measure for inflation, rose to 4.1% on an annual basis, up from September’s 4%. On a monthly basis, wages grew 0.4%, also slightly above expectations. Labor force participation slipped to 62.6%, down from 62.7% the previous month.

This jobs report also comes as a pivotal data point for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates, scheduled for Nov. 7. Market predictions now put a 99% likelihood on a 25-basis-point rate cut, up from a 95% chance before the report’s release. However, the Fed may focus on broader trends showing the labor market’s gradual cooling beyond these temporary effects. Recent BLS data from September also indicated declining job openings and a reduced quits rate, signaling lower worker confidence and easing hiring pressures.

Economists believe the October job numbers, while unusually low, reflect temporary factors rather than underlying economic weakness. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, suggested ignoring the low job addition figure and focusing on the consistent 4.1% unemployment rate as a more stable indicator of labor market conditions. Carson Group’s global macro strategist, Sonu Varghese, noted that this cooling labor market trend aligns with the Fed’s interest rate cut trajectory for November and December.

1·800·Flowers.com, Inc. (FLWS) – A Slow Start, But On Track Toward Growth

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Friday, November 01, 2024

For more than 45 years, 1-800-Flowers.com has offered truly original floral arrangements, plants and unique gifts to celebrate birthdays, anniversaries, everyday occasions, and seasonal holidays, and to deliver comfort during times of grief. Backed by a caring team obsessed with service, 1-800-Flowers.com provides customers thoughtful ways to express themselves and connect with the most important people in their lives. 1-800-Flowers.com is part of the 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. family of brands. Shares in 1-800-FLOWERS.COM, Inc. are traded on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, ticker symbol: FLWS.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $242.1 million, 3% lower than our estimate of $249.7 million. Adj. EBITDA loss of $27.9 million was below our estimate of negative $23.5 million. The lackluster results were partially attributed to roughly $3 million in wholesale revenue being pushed into Q2. A bright spot in Q1 was the effective management of input costs, which contributed to a gross margin improvement of 20 basis points from the prior year period.

Positioned for revenue growth. In our view, the company is positioned to benefit from several favorable developments, including expanded product offerings, a growing same-day delivery footprint and effective cost management of input prices. We believe that revenue trends should improve in coming quarters as inflation trends moderate and the general economy improves. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Microsoft Stock Drops as AI Spending Weighs on Profits Amid Slower Cloud Growth

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– Microsoft stock drops over 5% following a cautious Q2 forecast, marking its worst one-day fall in two years.
– Rising AI and cloud investments contribute to a 50% surge in property and equipment spending, raising profitability concerns.
– Azure’s growth slows amid supply chain delays, as Microsoft continues aggressive AI investment with OpenAI.

Microsoft’s shares plummeted over 5% on Thursday following a quarterly forecast that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations, marking its steepest drop since October 2022. Despite better-than-anticipated revenue and earnings for the recent quarter, the software giant’s guidance for the December period led investors to re-evaluate the impact of high spending on artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud infrastructure.

The tech giant reported a 16% revenue increase year-over-year, reaching $65.59 billion, beating the $64.51 billion estimate. Earnings per share also exceeded predictions, landing at $3.30 against an expected $3.10. Net income rose to $24.67 billion, up from $22.29 billion in the same quarter the previous year, indicating robust performance in core business areas, particularly in cloud services.

However, Microsoft’s forecast for its December quarter revenue—projected between $68.1 billion and $69.1 billion—fell slightly below analysts’ expectations of $69.83 billion. While these numbers imply a 10.6% growth in revenue, the miss signals potential challenges ahead as AI and cloud infrastructure investments weigh heavily on profitability. Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform saw a 33% growth this quarter, yet growth projections for the next quarter suggest a slight deceleration, expected between 31% and 32%, according to CFO Amy Hood.

In comparison, Google recently reported 35% growth in its cloud division, and Amazon, the leader in cloud services, is set to release its own earnings, with analysts keenly watching its results for further insights into the competitive cloud landscape. Microsoft has continued to ramp up spending to expand its AI capabilities, particularly through its $14 billion investment in OpenAI, valued at $157 billion. The company expects a significant $1.5 billion loss on this investment in the current quarter due to substantial operational expenses.

CEO Satya Nadella acknowledged supply chain delays in data center infrastructure from external suppliers, which are likely to affect Microsoft’s ability to meet rising demand for its services this quarter. Nadella remains optimistic that these challenges will ease later in the fiscal year as supply and demand align more closely.

Microsoft’s substantial investments in AI and infrastructure have not come without financial strain. Property and equipment expenses surged 50% year-over-year to nearly $14.92 billion, surpassing analyst expectations. This hike reflects Microsoft’s commitment to maintaining a competitive edge in AI and cloud services but also raises questions regarding the sustainability of such high spending levels.

Analysts from BofA Global Research still advise buying Microsoft stock despite the conservative outlook, suggesting that the firm’s core growth engines, like Azure and Office, remain solid. However, they note that the significant AI infrastructure spending may weigh on short-term profitability. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s shares, which were up 9% for the year, trail the Nasdaq’s 21% increase year-to-date, revealing investor caution around Microsoft’s aggressive spending strategy in AI.

As the tech sector continues to pivot towards AI and cloud solutions, Microsoft’s situation exemplifies the challenges of balancing growth with heavy investment costs. While the company’s AI ambitions signal promising long-term growth, the cautious near-term outlook on profitability could lead to further stock volatility as investors navigate the risks and rewards associated with Microsoft’s AI and cloud strategy.