ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) – Some Good, Some Challenges; Reports 2Q25 Results


Thursday, August 07, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Mixed Bag.  In the second quarter, Benihana delivered positive same store sales, and STK achieved positive traffic for the second and third consecutive quarters, respectively. However, Grill concept SSS were off 14.6% and the Company closed five locations in the quarter. Expenses were also higher than anticipated.

2Q25 Results. Overall revenue increased 20.2% y-o-y to $207.2 million, mostly due to a full quarter of Benihana. We had estimated $206.7 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $23.4 million, up 7.3% y-o-y, but below our $24.9 million estimate. ONE Group reported a GAAP net loss of $10.1 million, versus a net loss of $7.3 million a year ago. Including the preferred dividend, net loss per share was $0.59 versus a net loss per share of $0.38 last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.05 compared to $0.19 last year.  


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FAT Brands (FAT) – Refinancing Framework


Monday, August 04, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Refi Discussions. On or about July 9, 2025, FAT Brands entered into a confidentiality agreement with certain Holders of notes issued by the Company’s special purpose, whole business securitization financing subsidiaries. The Confidentiality Agreement facilitated the Company’s ability to engage in discussions with the Holders regarding one or more potential transactions involving a refinancing, restructuring or similar transaction with the Holders. As part of the confidentiality agreement, FAT Brands agreed to publicly disclose certain information, which Thursday’s 8-K accomplished.

First Look. The potential transaction described in the “Cleansing Material” was the Company’s initial proposal to the Holders. An agreement has not yet been reached with the Holders, and we expect negotiations to continue. The disclosed material provides summary term sheets for both FAT Brands’ and Twin Hospitality’s whole business securitizations.


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FAT Brands (FAT) – Reports 2Q25 Results


Thursday, July 31, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

2Q25 Results. Revenue of $146.8 million declined 3.4% y-o-y, but was above our $141 million estimate. The revenue decline was driven by a decrease in restaurant revenue resulting from the closure of five underperforming Smokey Bones locations, the temporary closure of one Smokey Bones location for conversion into a Twin Peaks lodge, and lower same-store sales, partially offset by the opening of new Twin Peaks lodges. FAT Brands reported a net loss of $54.2 million, or a loss of $3.17/sh, compared to a net loss of $39.4 million, or a loss of $2.43/sh, last year. We had projected a net loss of $46 million or a loss of $2.56/sh.

Pipeline and Openings. The development pipeline remains robust with roughly 1,000 signed deals. Eighteen new locations opened during the quarter, with FAT Brands well positioned to see 100 locations open in 2025. The opening of new locations will help drive go-forward adjusted EBITDA for the Company.


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FAT Brands (FAT) – Charges Dropped


Wednesday, July 30, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Charges Dropped. Last night, FAT Brands announced that the United States Attorney for the Central District of California has filed a motion to dismiss all charges against Andrew Wiederhorn, FAT Brands, Rebecca Hershinger, and William Amon. This is a major development in our view, not only removing significant ongoing related legal fees for FAT Brands, but also any lingering reputational risk investors may have had related to the action. It remains to be seen if last night’s action will result in a similar favorable resolution to the SEC civil action.

Background. The original charges from the U.S. District Attorney were filed back in May 2024, while, simultaneously, the SEC filed a civil complaint accusing Mr. Wiederhorn of using FAT cash to fund his lifestyle, while falsely telling the Company’s auditors, Board of Directors, and investors that neither he nor his family members had any direct or indirect material interest in the FAT cash used by Mr. Wiederhorn for personal expenditures.


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ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) – Diners Seeking “Uniqueness and Entertainment”


Thursday, July 03, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Diner Views. Today’s diners are seeking out venues that prioritize entertainment and uniqueness, according to a Yelp survey that analyzed consumer web searches from January to March. The Yelp findings are in-line with recent research by hospitality management platform SevenRooms. According to SevenRooms’ 2025 U.S. Restaurant Industry Trends, consumers who dine out value unique experiences, even at a premium, with 74% of consumers returning to a restaurant after a unique experience.

A Vibe Dining Leader. As a leader in Vibe Dining, ONE Hospitality is well positioned to capitalize on this trend through its portfolio of concepts, including chains STK, Benihana, Kona Grill, and RA Sushi, as well as the Salt Water Social and Samurai concepts. These upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges provide entertainment and unique experiences for diners, as well as one-of-a-kind, celebratory experiences that bring customers back.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

ONE Group Hospitality (STKS) – Noble Virtual Conference Highlights


Monday, June 09, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Noble Virtual Conference. We held a fireside chat with ONE Group CEO Manny Hilario and CFO Tyler Loy at the Noble Virtual Conference. Highlights included its leading position in Vibe dining, growth opportunities, and asset light development. A rebroadcast is available at https://www.channelchek.com/videos/the-one-group-stks-noble-capital-markets-virtual-conference-replay.

A Leader. With approximately 165 locations, ONE Group is a leader in Vibe dining through its ownership of STK, Benihana, Kona Grill, and RA Sushi. Notably, Vibe dining customers tend to generate higher average checks while only remaining in the restaurant for slightly longer than traditional restaurant customers.


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Marex Expands Into Brazil with Acquisition of Agrinvest Commodities

Key Points:
– Marex acquires Brazil-based Agrinvest Commodities to broaden agricultural and physical market presence.
– The acquisition adds 1,300 clients and 100 employees to Marex’s regional footprint.
– Marex gains strategic exposure to Brazil’s critical corn and soybean markets.

As global demand for agricultural commodities grows and Brazil cements its position as a vital supplier, Marex Group plc (NASDAQ: MRX) is making a bold strategic leap into the heart of South America. The global financial services platform announced today its acquisition of Agrinvest Commodities, a prominent Brazilian firm specializing in physical agricultural markets and client-focused risk consulting.

Agrinvest brings to Marex a powerful combination of on-the-ground commodity brokering—primarily in corn and soybeans—and advisory services that help producers and buyers navigate price volatility through smart hedging strategies. The acquisition introduces approximately 1,300 new clients and 100 employees to the Marex ecosystem, enhancing the Group’s reach and capacity across Latin America.

This expansion marks a pivotal step for Marex, which already maintains a derivatives presence in Brazil. By acquiring Agrinvest, the company gains immediate physical trading capabilities, enabling a more integrated offering to agricultural clients. From trade execution to risk management, Marex can now support the full value chain.

Brazil’s stature in global food supply cannot be overstated—it’s a leading producer and exporter of several staple commodities. The move gives Marex critical exposure to this dynamic market while positioning it to offer expanded services and infrastructure to clients operating at the production level.

The acquisition is also a play to diversify revenue streams. Known for its strength in metals, energy, and financial markets, Marex is now enhancing its agricultural vertical. The addition of a trusted, well-established Brazilian partner strengthens the Group’s resilience in the face of market cycles and positions it for further cross-border opportunities.

For Agrinvest, the transaction represents an opportunity to scale up its operations with the support of Marex’s global infrastructure and technological resources. Clients will benefit from access to broader hedging tools, deeper liquidity, and international expertise, while Marex stands to gain deeper penetration in one of the most strategically important agricultural markets in the world.

As the commodity landscape continues to evolve, this acquisition signals Marex’s intention to remain a central player—connecting producers to markets, clients to opportunity, and strategies to outcomes.

Noble Capital Markets Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference 2025 – Presentation Replays

Watch the replays from the Noble Capital Markets Emerging Growth Virtual Equity Conference. Replays are available to Channelchek registered members. Registration is free and easy. Simply click the Join button in the upper right to get started.

Day 1 Replays

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Celsius Holdings Completes $1.8 Billion Acquisition of Alani Nu, Expanding Functional Beverage Portfolio

Key Points:
– Celsius acquires Alani Nu for $1.8B, expanding its zero-sugar beverage lineup.
– Alani Nu stays under Celsius, with leadership advising for brand continuity.
– The deal boosts market reach, blending Alani Nu’s online strength with Celsius’ retail power.

Celsius Holdings, Inc. (Nasdaq: CELH) has finalized its $1.8 billion acquisition of Alani Nutrition LLC (Alani Nu), strengthening its position in the rapidly growing functional beverage market. The deal, which includes $150 million in tax assets, effectively brings the net purchase price to $1.65 billion, paid through a combination of cash and stock. This acquisition expands Celsius’ portfolio of zero-sugar, health-focused energy drinks and positions the company to capitalize on increasing consumer demand for better-for-you beverage options.

Celsius has built a strong brand by catering to fitness-conscious consumers looking for functional energy drinks with zero sugar. With Alani Nu now under its umbrella, the company gains access to an established brand with a loyal following in the health and wellness space. The acquisition aligns with Celsius’ mission to provide innovative and flavorful products that cater to active lifestyles.

“The closing of this transaction further strengthens our ability to grow the energy drink category and reach new consumers who seek better-for-you, functional beverages as a healthier alternative to traditional, sugary energy drinks,” said John Fieldly, Chairman and CEO of Celsius Holdings.

Alani Nu, co-founded by fitness influencer Katy Hearn, has rapidly grown into a recognizable name in the industry, offering a variety of products including energy drinks, protein powders, and supplements. The brand’s appeal among health-conscious consumers makes it a natural fit within Celsius’ growing portfolio.

Under the terms of the deal, Alani Nu will continue to operate within Celsius, ensuring continuity in branding and product offerings. Key leadership members from Alani Nu will serve as advisors to Celsius, helping to maintain the brand’s identity while leveraging Celsius’ infrastructure and distribution network to expand its reach.

“Alani Nu has built a strong brand and a differentiated consumer base, which we believe will thrive and grow within the Celsius family,” said Alani Nu co-founder Max Clemons. “Thank you to the many Alani Nu employees and partners who have helped inspire and support our customers in their pursuit of active, wellness lifestyles. I look forward to working with the Celsius team to make Alani Nu products available to many more people and to continue creating great-tasting, functional products aligned with today’s wellness lifestyles.”

This acquisition is expected to unlock significant growth opportunities for both brands. Celsius’ established presence in retail and convenience store channels will provide Alani Nu with broader distribution, while Alani Nu’s strong online and direct-to-consumer business will complement Celsius’ expansion efforts.

The global energy drink and functional beverage market has seen substantial growth as consumers increasingly seek out healthier alternatives. With the addition of Alani Nu, Celsius is well-positioned to compete with industry giants like Monster and Red Bull by offering a broader range of health-conscious products.

As Celsius continues to innovate and expand, this acquisition sets the stage for increased market penetration, product innovation, and consumer engagement. By combining forces, Celsius and Alani Nu aim to reshape the functional beverage landscape and provide more options for those seeking energy and wellness in their drinks.

FAT Brands (FAT) – A Look at the Fourth Quarter


Friday, February 28, 2025

FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

4Q Results. Revenues for the fourth quarter totaled $145.3 million compared to $158.6 million last year. The prior year included an extra week, resulting in an additional $11.3 million being added. Adjusted EBITDA was $14.4 million compared to $27.0 million last year. Net loss totaled $67.4 million, or $4.06 per share, compared to $26.2 million, or $1.68 per share, in the prior year. Included in the loss was $30.6 million in goodwill impairment.

Development Pipeline. During 2024, the Company expanded its footprint by opening 92 restaurants and signing over 250 new franchise agreements, increasing the development pipeline to 1,000 locations. Management expects to add more than 100 additional restaurants in 2025, with 17 already opened in the new year, which we believe can be further accretive to the Company’s annual adjusted EBITDA.


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Celsius Acquires Alani Nutrition in $1.8 Billion Deal

Key Points:
– Celsius acquires Alani Nutrition in a $1.8 billion deal, expected to close in Q2 2025.
– The merger aims to create a leading functional beverage platform, catering to growing demand for zero-sugar alternatives.
– Celsius projects $2 billion in sales post-acquisition, with $50 million in cost synergies over two years.

Celsius Holdings has announced plans to acquire Alani Nutrition in a landmark $1.8 billion deal, marking a major consolidation in the U.S. energy drink market. The agreement, expected to be finalized in the second quarter of 2025, includes a net purchase price of $1.65 billion and $150 million in tax assets.

Alani Nutrition, founded in 2018, has built a reputation as a “female-focused” brand offering functional beverages and snacks tailored to Gen Z and millennial consumers. The Kentucky-based company, previously operated by Congo Brands, produces energy drinks, protein shakes, snacks, and protein powders. The acquisition will transfer ownership from co-founders Katy and Haydn Schneider, as well as Congo Brands’ co-founders Max Clemons and Trey Steiger, to Celsius Holdings.

Celsius believes the deal will create a powerful synergy, forming a “leading better-for-you, functional lifestyle platform.” By integrating Alani Nu’s products, Celsius aims to expand its reach in the functional beverage space and tap into growing demand for zero-sugar alternatives. The company expects the merger to drive approximately $2 billion in sales, leveraging the combined distribution networks, brand awareness, and innovation capabilities of both entities.

John Fieldly, Chairman and CEO of Celsius, highlighted the strategic benefits of the acquisition, stating that it will “broaden the availability of Alani Nu’s functional products” and strengthen the company’s presence in new market segments. The transaction is projected to be accretive to cash earnings per share (EPS) within the first full year of ownership, with an estimated $50 million in cost synergies to be realized over two years post-closing.

Max Clemons of Congo Brands expressed confidence in the deal, emphasizing that Celsius will “unlock key growth opportunities” for Alani Nu, particularly in expanding its distribution and consumer engagement.

The acquisition announcement coincided with Celsius reporting its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2024. The company posted annual revenue of $1.36 billion, reflecting a 3% increase over the prior year. North American sales accounted for $1.28 billion, growing by 1%, while international revenues surged 37% to $74.7 million. Despite the revenue growth, Celsius experienced a decline in profitability, with adjusted EBITDA down 13% to $255.7 million and net profit falling 36% to $145.1 million.

Industry analysts view this acquisition as a strategic move that could help Celsius regain momentum in a highly competitive market. By capitalizing on Alani Nu’s strong brand presence and consumer loyalty, Celsius aims to solidify its position as a leader in the energy and functional beverage sector. The deal also signals an increasing trend of consolidation in the market, as major players look to expand their portfolios to meet shifting consumer preferences.

As the acquisition moves forward, investors and industry watchers will closely monitor how Celsius integrates Alani Nu into its operations and whether the expected synergies materialize. If successful, the merger could serve as a blueprint for future partnerships in the rapidly evolving health and wellness beverage industry.

Prebiotic Soda Brand Olipop Valued at $1.85 Billion in Latest Funding Round

Key Points:
– Olipop raised $50 million in a Series C funding round, valuing the prebiotic soda brand at $1.85 billion as it competes with rivals such as Poppi.
– Olipop is now the top nonalcoholic beverage brand in the U.S., both by dollar sales and unit growth, according to data from Circana/SPINS.
– The company is now profitable, with annual sales surpassing $400 million last year.

Prebiotic soda brand Olipop announced Wednesday that it had secured a $50 million investment in its latest Series C funding round, bringing its valuation to an impressive $1.85 billion. The funding marks a significant milestone for the brand, which has been rapidly growing in the competitive functional beverage market.

Founded in 2018, Olipop has played a pivotal role in popularizing prebiotic sodas, offering consumers a gut-health-focused alternative to traditional soft drinks. Alongside competitor Poppi, Olipop has successfully tapped into the wellness trend sweeping the beverage industry, positioning itself as a healthier alternative to mainstream sodas.

The latest investment round was led by J.P. Morgan Private Capital’s Growth Equity Partners, reflecting strong investor confidence in the brand’s future. Olipop intends to use the fresh capital to expand its product lineup, increase marketing efforts, and enhance distribution channels, ensuring wider availability of its sodas across the U.S. and beyond.

A Market Leader in Functional Beverages

Olipop has swiftly risen to dominance, becoming the top nonalcoholic beverage brand in the U.S. based on both dollar sales and unit growth, according to Circana/SPINS data. The company reports that approximately half of its growth stems from consumers switching from traditional soda brands, while the other half comes from new entrants into the carbonated beverage market. Notably, one in four Gen Z consumers has tried Olipop, highlighting its appeal among younger demographics.

A key factor in Olipop’s success has been its strategic branding and marketing, which emphasize its natural ingredients and gut-health benefits. The brand’s product formulations incorporate prebiotic fibers, botanicals, and plant-based ingredients, catering to health-conscious consumers seeking flavorful yet functional beverages.

Financial Growth and Profitability

Olipop reached profitability in early 2024, a significant achievement for a relatively young brand. Annual sales exceeded $400 million last year, doubling from the previous year. This rapid financial growth has attracted attention from major players in the beverage industry, with Olipop’s founder and CEO Ben Goodwin revealing that soda giants PepsiCo and Coca-Cola have already expressed interest in potential acquisition deals.

Competition and Industry Trends

Despite Olipop’s success, competition in the prebiotic soda space remains fierce. Poppi, a direct rival founded a decade ago, has also seen substantial growth. The company had raised $39.3 million as of 2023 at an undisclosed valuation, and its annual sales reportedly surpassed $100 million last year. Poppi gained widespread recognition with its Super Bowl advertisements in consecutive years, solidifying its presence in the category.

However, Poppi has faced challenges, including legal scrutiny over its health claims. The company is currently negotiating a settlement in a lawsuit alleging that its marketing misrepresented the true health benefits of its beverages.

As the functional beverage market continues to expand, Olipop’s latest funding round positions it strongly for future growth, allowing it to scale operations and maintain its leadership in the rapidly evolving industry.

Above Food to Acquire Palm Global Technologies, Expanding into Agri-Tech and Sustainable Innovation

Key Points:
– Above Food Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ABVE) has signed a Letter of Intent to acquire Palm Global Technologies Ltd. in a $180 million share exchange, expanding into Agri-Tech, FinTech, and carbon credit securitization.
– Palm Global’s proprietary AI, blockchain, and decentralized finance technologies will enhance Above Food’s vertically integrated food systems, supporting sustainable agriculture and economic empowerment for millions of farmers.
– Following the acquisition, Palm Global’s Peter Knez will become Chairman and CEO of the combined companies, with definitive agreements expected to be finalized and closed in the near term.

Above Food Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: ABVE), a leader in sustainable, vertically integrated food systems, has signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) to acquire Palm Global Technologies Ltd., a next-generation innovator in technology, sustainability, and global food markets. The acquisition is expected to strengthen Above Food’s position in Agri-Tech, FinTech, and carbon credit securitization, further advancing its commitment to sustainable food production and innovation.

Strategic Rationale and Industry Impact

The transaction will integrate Above Food’s vertically integrated food systems with Palm Global’s groundbreaking technologies, alliances, and global reach. Palm Global’s proprietary AI, blockchain, and decentralized finance technologies are designed to drive economic empowerment, education, and sustainable growth, particularly in underserved markets, benefiting tens of millions of farmers worldwide.

“This transformative acquisition positions Above Food to redefine global agriculture and sustainability while unlocking a number of significant opportunities in high-growth markets,” said Lionel Kambeitz, Founder and CEO of Above Food. “Palm Global’s innovative technologies, combined with its mission to drive economic empowerment, align perfectly with our vision for sustainable food solutions worldwide.”

Palm Global’s Technological and Strategic Contributions

  • AI, Blockchain, and DeFi Technologies – Palm Global’s solutions enhance efficiency, security, and accessibility in the global food supply chain.
  • Partnerships with Governments and Institutions – Palm Global collaborates with entities like the Peace for Life Foundation, IIMSAM, and global institutions to accelerate technology adoption among farmers.
  • Strategic Global Alliances – The acquisition allows Above Food to leverage Palm Global’s extensive partnerships to develop, utilize, and maximize R&D capabilities in agronomy and genomics.

The newly combined entity will enable innovative initiatives such as regenerative agriculture and grow-to-order food solutions, creating customized approaches to meet evolving consumer and agricultural needs.

Transaction Details and Leadership Transition

  • The LOI outlines a share exchange valuing Palm Global at approximately $180 million.
  • Definitive agreements are expected this month, with approvals and closing anticipated soon after.
  • Peter Knez, currently on Palm Global’s Board of Directors, will assume the role of Chairman and CEO of the combined companies.

Future Outlook

This merger is set to enhance global food security, promote sustainable agriculture, and create economic opportunities in underserved markets through technological innovation and strategic partnerships. By combining resources, Above Food and Palm Global aim to drive the next wave of transformation in sustainable food production and agricultural technology.