Economy Archives - Page 27 of 52

The Week Ahead – Chairman Powell’s Appearance Before Congress Could Cause Volatility

Posted on March 6, 2023March 6, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Powell’s Testimony, then Beige Book Ought to Give More Information

While this will be a quiet week for economic data, and earnings season is now past its peak, the probabilities are high that it will be a week of dramatic volatility. The reason is that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will spend two days answering questions from elected officials that are members of Congress. There are typically a lot of pointed questions from members of the House and Senate as well as grandstanding politicians that want their constituents to see them fighting. In 2023’s case, the Fed intentionally weakens the US economy. Links to watch the live broadcasts of both the Senate and the House Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress are provided below.

Monday 3/6

10:00 AM ET, Factory orders are expected to have fallen 1.8 percent in January versus December’s 1.8 percent rise. Evidence of this turnaround can be seen in Durable Goods Orders for January, which had already been released and is one of two major components of this report. Durable Goods fell 4.5 percent in the month.

Tuesday 3/7

10:00 AM ET, Day one of Fed Chair Jerome Poll’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress will be with the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. A link to stream the intense exchange that usually occurs can be found here.
3:00 PM ET, Consumer Credit is expected to increase $26.4 billion in January versus a smaller-than-expected increase of $11.6 billion in December. This report has a long lag from the measuring period, this makes it paid attention to less than other reports. However it is of increasing importance now that investors are wondering how long consumers can continue at a high rate despite tighter money.

Wednesday 3/8

8:30 PM ET, International Trade is expected to show a deficit of $69.0 billion during January for total goods and services trade. This would compare with a $67.4 billion deficit in December. A stronger dollar makes US goods less attractive overseas, and goods and services billed in a currency that is weakening in relationship to the US dollar become more attractive domestically when paid for in stronger dollars.
10:00 AM ET, the Jolts or job openings report is expected to decline. It has been strong and rose to 11.0 million in December, however January’s expectation move down to 10.6 million.
2:00 PM ET, The Beige Book is a discussion of what is going on economically in each of the Federal Reserve districts. It is made available roughly two weeks before the FOMC meetings. This report on economic conditions is used for discussion at FOMC meetings which is back to beingthe single most influential events during the year impacting markets.
10:00 AM ET, Day two of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress will be with the U.S. House Financial Services Committee. A link to stream the intense exchange that usually occurs can be found here.

Thursday 3/9

8:30 AM ET, Jobless claims are a weekly release, but they always have the ability to impact investor thinking. For the week that ended March 4 week they are expected to come in at 196,000 versus 190,000 during the prior week.
4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s balance sheet is a weekly report presenting a balance sheet for all Reserve Bank districts that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. The report is officially named Factors Affecting Reserve Balances. The Fed has been reducing its balance sheet by letting a specific amount of securities owned mature without being reinvested. Investong by the Fed adds money to the marketplace which is stimulative.

Friday 3/10

8:30 AM ET, the consensus for the Employment Sitation is a 215,000 rise for nonfarm payroll growth in February. This compares to 517,000 in January which. January was the ninth straight month and eleventh of the last twelve that payroll growth exceeded consensus of economists.

What Else

As far as what is scheduled, nothing can impact the market greater than the Federal Reserve Chair testifying before Congress both Tuesday and Wednesday. It would be surprising if they all like what he has to say. Stocks continue to be very sensitive; the US 10-year Treasury Note has been a key to the stock markets tone recently.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://www.econoday.com/

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/calendar.htm

What Investors Learned in February That They Can Use in March

Posted on March 1, 2023March 1, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image Credit: Bradley Higginson (Flickr)

Stock Market Performance – Looking Back at February, Forward to March

The months seem to go by quickly. And as satisfying as January was for most stock market investors, February left people with 2022 flashbacks. High inflation, or what more inflation could mean for monetary policy, again was the culprit weighing on investors’ minds and account values. One consideration is that investors are now entering March and are faced with very negative sentiment. This could actually be bullish and may lead the major indexes on a wave upward.

The next scheduled FOMC meeting is March 21-22. By then, we will have seen another round of inflation numbers as CPI (March 14) and the PCE index (March 15) are both released during the same week, otherwise known as the ides of March. While the Fed is wrestling with stubborn inflation, it is keeping an eye on the strong labor markets. Although low unemployment is desirable, tight labor markets are helping to drive prices up. The Fed is looking to find a better balance.

Look Back

The three broad stock market indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000) are positive on the year, the Dow went negative on the 21^st of February. The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 have gained 9.70% and 8.22% respectively year-to-date, while the S&P is a positive 3.21% and the Dow Industrials is a negative 1.45%.

Each of the four closely watched indexes shown above began falling off as soon as January ended. It has only totalled a partial reversal, but the overall negative sentiment rose through February.

Viewing the indices from a year-to-date perspective, all but the Dow are well above their historical average pace.

Market Sector Lookback

Of the 11 S&P market sectors (SPDRs) only one was in positive territory for the month. This is Technology (XLK) and was barely positive at .08%. That is followed by Industrials (XLI), which fell a mere .07%. This demonstrates the flaw in using the Dow 30 Industrials (declined 4.07%) which is not as broad of an index or a great gauge of stock market direction. The third top performer was Financials (XLF) which returned a negative 2.26%. Financial firms tend to benefit from higher yields, especially if the yield curev steepens, the curve currently has negative spreads out longer.

Of the worst performers are Utilities (XLU), down 7.45%. Many investors in utilities these stocks for dividend yield; as US government bonds pay more interest, they make utility stocks less attractive. Real Estate is also affected by higher rates as underlying assets (properties) decline and the attractiveness of its dividends diminish with high rates available elsewhere. The Energy sector (XLE) was the third worst. Energy is taking its lead from what is happening between Russia and the rest of Europe.

Looking Forward

Income and consumer spending have held strong in early 2023. This would seem to put off any chance of a recession beginning this quarter or next. Earnings reported for the fourth quarter have been mixed. Public companies are dealing with their own increased costs of doing business.

The Fed raising rates one, two, or three more times in 2023 is fully expected. What became less certain is whether they will continue to rely on 25bp increments or if another 50bp is on tap in March or beyond. The Fed began raising rates last March, a large impact has yet to be felt, and it is not expected to take a wait-and-see approach soon.

February’s small decline after a large January run-up is not unusual activity. In fact the short month has typically been one of the worst of the year for the U.S. stock market. Historically, the S&P 500 has performed better in March and April. How much better? Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.5% gain in March and a 1.4% gain in April.

Take-Away

The market was given a lot to think about in February. Inflation stopped trending down, earnings were not exciting, and participants had amassed better gains than they had in previous months. It was time for some to take some chips off the table and look for an opportunity to get back in.

March, which historically has been positive, will allow investors to see if the tick-up in inflation is a trend or an aberration and whether negative sentiment, with money on the sidelines, makes the current market more of a buy than a sell.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Record Decline in Money Supply, What this Means for the Economy

Posted on February 28, 2023February 28, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Money Supply Numbers Show the Fed is Making Headway

Money Supply, as reported by the Federal Reserve, fell by the largest amount ever recorded. This significant year-on-year drop shows the Fed’s tight monetary policy at work. However, despite the dramatic decline of cash available to consumers, the pace of increase that led up to the twelve-month period was even more dramatic. This indicates the Fed is not even close to finished draining liquidity from the economy, which serves to push up the cost of money (interest rates).

What is M2, how does it impact spending, and how much lower can the money supply go to reach “normal”? Let’s explore.

The M2 Report

Data for January, released on February 28^th, showed a negative growth rate of 1.7% versus a year ago. This is both the biggest yearly decline and also the first time ever it has contracted in consecutive months. The monthly rate of change has been falling consistently since mid-2021. As indicated on the chart below, it follows a historic peak of 27% growth in February 2021.

Money Supply is a measure of household liquidity, it includes household cash on hand, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. The level had been growing slowly, keeping pace with low inflation until 2020. In response to pandemic-related economic risks, the economy was then flooded with cash by the Fed. Like any other oversupply, this oversupply causes money’s value to decline – a recipe for inflation.

The Fed’s Actions

For almost a year, the Fed has been draining liquidity from the US economy. This includes the well-publicized retargeting of overnight bank lending rates which are accomplished by contracting the aggregate amount of cash banks hold in reserves. Draining liquidity also includes quantitative tightening by the Fed, not repurchasing maturing securities.

The Fed’s tightening is having an impact on savings and cash available to households. Although the consumer is still spending, the decline in savings makes the spending pace unsustainable. Unrelated to M2, but as important, is that consumer borrowing is up, and this, too, can not stay on an upward trajectory forever. The Fed’s actions have a lag time, but it is becoming obvious that there will come a point when consumers will need to change their spending habits downward. This is how inflation is expected to be reeled in, but it isn’t certain whether it is being reeled in at a pace where the Fed can succeed at reaching the 2% inflation rate goal – particularly in light of the last inflation number actually being higher than the previous month.

Where We Are Now

Although M2 growth rates declined at a pace shattering all records, levels are still abnormally high. To put numbers on it, Money Supply remains 39% higher than it was before the Covid-19 pandemic, just three years ago. In other words, the amount of liquidity in the economy is still significant, and too much money chasing too few goods and services lead to rising prices.

The current M2 of $21.27 trillion is nearly $6 trillion higher than the pre-pandemic level. At this point, money in the economy has surpassed real gross domestic product levels, a momentous shift that first happened in 2020 when the Fed flooded the economy with cash as the pandemic hit.

All of this indicates the Fed is actually being patient despite the dramatic tightening over the past year. It also makes it clear that they are not done mopping up the Covid-19 monetary mess. And investors shouldn’t be surprised to see their resolve continue until balances are more in-line with moderate inflation rates.

Take Away

The still elevated M2, despite its record yearly decline, is feeding inflation. The Fed is making headway removing fuel to the inflation fire.

However, consumers that historically have continued to spend at near unchanged levels, even when their disposable income no longer supports it, do eventually adjust. When this adjustment occurs, economic activity will slow. That’s when the Fed will be on the path to winning its inflation fight. Then perhaps we may actually get a pivot in monetary policy.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Week Ahead – No Inflation Report, But Jobs Could Disrupt

Posted on February 27, 2023February 27, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will the Markets Regain Traction this Week?

The markets are mostly up on the year, with stocks around 5.5% higher, bonds and the $ U.S. dollar near 1%, and bitcoin near 46.5% above the December 31^st level. Last week there was concern that the positive start most asset classes had at the beginning of the year is going to give a sizeable portion back, perhaps all and then some. This concern was heightened by a measure that shows that inflation’s decline may be tacking higher. There are no inflation reports scheduled in the upcoming week to worry about, and few Fed President addresses to be concerned with.

Monday 2/27

8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to have dropped off by 4% in January. They had surged in December primarily because of aircraft orders. When transportation is removed to reveal the core Durable Goods reading, it is expected to be flat with no change from the prior month’s volume of orders.
10:00 AM ET, The National Association of Realtors is expected to report that Pending Home Sales rose 1% in January from the prior month. This level increase would be at a slower pace than the 2.5% increase in the prior period.
10:30 AM ET, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is expected to have declined for the ninth consecutive month. The consensus among economists is down 9.0 versus down 8.4.

Tuesday 2/28

8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods is expected to widen as economists expect exports to have fallen off. The expectation of a $91 billion trade deficit for the U.S. in January is $1.3 billion wider than December’s measurements.
9:45 PM ET, The Institute for Supply Management uses a survey to create a composite of business conditions in the Chicago area. The leading indicator is expected to come in at 45 for February, which would be an uptick from January’s 44.3.
10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence has been falling; the report released on Tuesday is expected to show a rise of 1.3 points to 108.4.
1:00 PM ET, Money Supply (M1 and M2) are measures of liquidity, it includes household savings, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. Over the past few years, money supply measures weren’t getting much attention. As households are dealing with rising prices, it may be interesting for investors to see if amounts immediately available to households are declining at a pace that may begin to hamper spending and economic growth.

Wednesday 3/01

10:00 PM ET, The ISM Manufacturing Index surveys business nationally to get the pulse on expected business levels. The forward-looking indicator is expected to have improved to 47.9 versus 47.4 the prior month.

Thursday 3/02

8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims have been a nail-biter number recently, often well off of expectations. For the week ending February 25th, claims are supposed to show an increase in claims to 200,000.

Friday 3/03

10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Index had a strong January at 55.2, it is expected to trail off some and have a February reading of 54.5.
12:00 PM, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has been rattling markets with his ongoing and perhaps heightened hawkish rhetoric. FOMC member Bostic is not a voting member, but his words have the power to move markets.
4:15 PM, Thomas Barkin is the Richmond Federal Reserve President. He is scheduled to speak after the market closes. If the Fed is looking to adjust expectations before its late March meeting, FOMC member Barkin may be one that carries that message.

What Else

Earnings reports will continue with some of the most watched being Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Zoom (Z.M.) on Monday. Retailer Target (TGT) reports on Tuesday, Salesforce (CRM), and NIO (NIO) on Wednesday , and Anheiser Busch (BUD) on Thursday.

The U.S. Supreme Court will begin hearing two cases on student loan debt forgiveness beginning on Tuesday. Expect some non-market-moving discourse on this subject during the week.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The PCE Inflation Index and Sector Outperformers

Posted on February 24, 2023February 24, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

What Sectors Outperformed the Market after the PCE Inflation Shock?

When an investor inquires, “What stocks do well with high inflation?” they are often asking, “What sectors do well with rising interest rates?,” because inflation expectations often drive rate moves. The text book response usually given are: consumer staples, banks and financials, and commodities. The PCE indexes are considered the Fed’s preferred indicator of inflation trends. The PCE surprised markets on the high side when released on February 24^th. What can investors now expect from higher-than-forecast inflation?

Rather than look at old information on what outperforms the overall market when inflation expectations rise, I thought it would be informative and more useful to see what is outperforming under current 2023 conditions and climate. The chart below and the remainder of this simple study is a snapshot three hours after the news settled in among investors (11:30am ET, February 24^th).

Personal Income and Outlays

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Sectors Outperforming Overall Market

There were five S&P sectors that outperformed the S&P 500 a few hours after the inflation number showed an almost across-the-board acceleration in price increases. At this point, the S&P 500 had already fallen 1.31%.

Beating the S&P larger index, but the worst of the five outperformers was Health Care (XLV). The Health sector is considered to be a necessity that consumers find a means to pay for regardless of cost. Within the sector there are companies providing goods and services that are more embraced by investors than others. Within the XLV, many stocks were green after the report.

Outperforming the Health Care sector were stocks making up the Industrial Sector (XLI). This includes large industrial manufacturers like John Deere, General Electric, and Caterpillar. Many of these companies have contracts well out into the future that assures business. What is not ordinarily assured is the cost of manufacturing which can go up with inflation. A number of the top holdings in XLI barely budged on the morning – GE was up .08%, Honeywell was down .18%, and UPS was down just .20%.

Almost even with the Industrial Sector was Consumer Staples (XLP). As with Health Care and to a lesser degree Industrials this sector is where money moves to during inflationary periods. Consumers may be postpone a new car purchase, but they’ll keep their buying habits unchanged for products produced by Colgate, Coca-Cola, Proctor and Gamble, or cigarette manufacturers.

Performing second best after the inflation numbers was the Utility sector (XLU). Again this follows the mindset that consumers can only cutback on water, electricity, and natural gas so much. It is more likely that cutbacks would come in other areas like entertainment, or technology. Technology was the worst performing sector.

The top performer, although still modestly negative, was the Financial sector. This includes insurance, banks and credit card companies, as well as investment firms. Banks, particularly those with a higher percentage of traditional banking business, benefit from a steepening yield curve. Banks use cash as their product line. They borrow short from customers, and lend longer term. As the yield curve steepens, their net income can be expected to rise. This may explain why two of the top three holdings were positive after the report, JP Morgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Brokerage firms also may benefit as accounts uninvested balances can be a source of revenue as financial firms earn interest on them. Rising rates means every balance they can earn on creates additional income.

Larger Index Observations

As indicated earlier, technology was the worst-performing sector. This causes the tech heavy Nasdaq to far underperform the other major indexes. The best performing a few hour after the open was the Dow Industrials, which is comprised of just 30 industrial stocks, many paying consistent dividends. The second best performer, beating both the Dow and S&P 500 was the Russell 2000 Small-Cap index. Small-cap stocks tend to be less affected when borrowing costs change, and tend to have more of their end customers located domestically. The U.S.-based customers is an advantage to smaller stocks when rising rates cause rising dollar values. A rising dollar makes goods or services from the U.S. more expensive overseas.

Take Away

The textbook reply to questions related to rising rates, inflation, and sector rotation in stocks held up after the surprise PCE index increase. Banks, and necessities like heat and consumer goods outperformed. Also small-cap stocks did not disappoint, they also held up better than the overall large cap universe.

One difficulty small and even microcap investors face is that information is less available on many of these companies. And there are a lot of them, including in the sectors that outperform with inflation. One easy way to find which smaller companies are rising to the top is Channelchek’s Market Movers tab. This can be viewed throughout the trading day by clicking here for the link.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.bea.gov/news/2023/personal-income-and-outlays-january-2023

https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-02-24/u-s-inflation-accelerates-in-january-consumer-spending-surges

The Pace of Tightening is Too Slow, Says FOMC Member

Posted on February 22, 2023February 22, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Upcoming PCE Data May Revise St. Louis Fed President’s Increasingly Hawkish Stance

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress in June of last year and said there is a risk the Fed could go too far raising rates. He didn’t believe overdoing it was a “top risk” to the economy. The greater risk, he thought, was that wage and price pressures could possibly keep inflation at a boiling point. He reiterated this position a few months later, saying it is easier to restart the economy if the FOMC is too heavy on the brake pedal rather than too unaggressive and left needing to do even more later. Today, FOMC members seem to agree, at least the St. Louis Fed President does, but he’s not alone. The non-voting member of the Committee says he wants to step up the pace of tightening.

A full percentage point of tightening is needed, and sooner is better, according to James Bullard, who is the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The hawkish comments were made on CNBC February 22^nd, but they echo those he made the previous week during his slide presentation titled: Disinflation: Progress and Prospects, deliveredto businesses in Jackson Tennessee. The comments come as inflation is still well above the Fed’s target and not receding toward the 2% goal at a pace that is in line with achieving the target.

Image Source: “Disinflation: Progress and Prospects” (J. Bullard, February 16, 2023)

During the CNBC interview, Bullard said the “risk now is inflation doesn’t come down and reaccelerates.” He used the 1970’s entrenched inflation experience as an example. Explaining that when rising prices become the norm over a long period of time, they become the mindset, the expectation, and then self-fulfilling. Bullard expressed that this is undesirable.

While speaking about where he expects the peak in Fed Funds should be this tightening cycle, he explained he supports a rate near 5.375%. Currently, the Fed targets 4.50% to 4.75%.

Another Fed president has also been vocal recently. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, like Bullard, is a non-voting member this year. Last week she said she saw a “compelling economic case” for a 50 basis-point interest-rate hike at the Fed’s Jan 31- Feb 1 meeting. This conversation is expected to be reflected in the FOMC minutes being released this week. The markets may start reacting to comments of members that supported a more aggressive posture than the 25 basis points the Fed decided upon.

The next FOMC meeting is to be held March 21-22. Over the next month, there will be only one more look at the PCE index and several more employment reports. Overall the markets have recently begun to behave more in line with the data and Fed rhetoric. Bonds have begun trading off, although yields still price in much lower inflation, and the stock market, which traded up in January, appears to understand that if the economy wasn’t hot, there would be no reason for the Fed to throw cold water on it.

Expectations for a rate hike at the next meeting can change over the next month. Currently, according to the CME Fedwatch gauge, a 25 bp hike is where speculators have congregated. However, a 50 basis-point hike has gained popularity. The odds have moved up to 24% from 12.2% a week ago, according to the gauge.

Take Away

On the trading desk we label market moving news stories and interviews from influential policymakers, “tape bombs.” This is because as they come across news tapes (like Bloomberg), they could do damage to your positions.

The evenings before each trading week (usually Sunday), Channelchek emails to subscribers known events scheduled during the upcoming week that could become “tape bombs” to your holdings. Subscribe to Channelchek here to be sure you receive these potential risks before the action starts that week.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

The Week Ahead – PCE Inflation Measures and FOMC Minutes

Posted on February 20, 2023February 20, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will the Regional Fed President Speeches Change the Market’s Thinking This Week?

The markets will have to wait until late week to view the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the PCE price index, and PCE core index. Leading up to that report we will be treated to FOMC minutes on Wednesday, which could change the market’s view of what the Fed was thinking at the time of the last meeting, and a number of regional Fed President’s speeches which could give insight into any change to hawkish versus dovish bias. There has been a lot of new data since the FOMC meeting that ended three weeks ago.

Monday 2/20

US markets are closed for President’s Day.

Tuesday 2/21

9:45 AM ET, the Purchasing Managers Composite flash report (PMI) has been receding for the past three months. This contraction is expected to reverse itself minimally with expectations at 47.3 with services at 47.2. The flash PMI is an early estimate of current private sector output using information from surveys of nearly 1,000 manufacturing and service sector companies. The flash data are released around 10 days ahead of the final report and based upon around 85% of the full survey sample.

10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales have been shrinking but are expected to have held steady in January, at a 4.10 million annualized rate versus December’s 4.02 million.

Wednesday 2/22

2:00 PM ET, FOMC Minutes from the meeting held January 31 and February 1 where the Fed Funds level was lifted by 25 bp will be released. The Fed’s minutes could be a market mover as investors and analysts parse each word looking for clues to policy changes.

5:00 PM ET, John Williams the President of the New York Fed will be speaking.

Thursday 2/23

8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestoc Product (GDP) second estimate of fourth-quarter is 2.9% growth according to the consensus of economists surveyed by Econoday. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which was 2.1% in the first estimate, is expected to come in at 2.0% in the second estimate.
10:50 AM ET, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is scheduled to speak.
4:30 PM ET, The Federal Reserve Balance sheet data are released each Thursday. This information is becoming more of a focus as headway on quantitative tightening is revealed in these numbers.

Friday 2/24

8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays expected to rise 1.0% in January with consumption expenditures expected to increase 1.2%. The previous experience was a December rise of 0.2% for income and a December fall of 0.2% in for consumption. Inflation readings for January are expected at monthly gains of 0.4% overall and also 0.4% for the core (versus respective increases of 0.1 and 0.3%) for annual rates of 4.9 and 4.3% (versus December’s 5.0 and 4.4%).
10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales, which have been falling, are expected to hold steady in January, at a 617,000 annualized rate in versus 616,000 in December.
10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to end February at 66.4, 1.5 points above January and unchanged from February’s mid-month flash.
10:45 AM ET, Loretta Mester the President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank is schedulked to speak.

What Else

The four day trading week in the US will feature earnings reports from major retailers Walmart and Home Depot. Other companies reporting with enough of a following to adjust investor thinking are Nvidia, Coinbase, Alibaba, and Moderna.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://www.econoday.com/

Choosing Investments While Government Spending Levels Grow

Posted on February 17, 2023February 17, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

The US Budget Office Just Laid Out its Ten-Year Forecast – What Investors Should Know

The US National Debt Clock app might be useful for those that suffer from low blood pressure. I’m being facetious – the app and website provide a visual of the current estimated overall national debt. It breaks out what each citizen’s theoretical share is, and then divides it up in dozens f other categories. The clock is an estimate of real-time. For a future projection, the better place to turn is the just-released forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The CBO’s website can be insightful and idea-provoking for investors as it includes a 10-year forecast for government spending, which is broken down by industry type.

Source: USdebtclock.org (February 17, 2023)

Direction of Overall US Debt

The US is on track to accumulate more than $19 trillion in additional debt over the next decade, according to a CBO document released on February 15.

This new expectation is $3 trillion more than previously forecast. Coming at a time when there is headbutting and chest pounding going on in Washington surrounding the debt ceiling (US Treasury borrowing cap), the significantly larger 10-year budget may additionally stress the governments ability to pay its bills. Phillip Swagel, a director at the CBO expressed his concern saying, “The warning is that the fiscal trajectory is unsustainable.”

The federal government is expected to collect $65 trillion in revenue over the next ten years. More than half is expected to come from individual income taxes, and another third comes from payroll taxes. Individually, we can’t change what may be higher taxes, or a weakened government financial situation, which, separate from the Federal Reserve, puts upward pressure on interest rate levels.

Drilling down deeper into where the funding is expected to flow from, individual income taxes are planned to remain level through 2025, then ramp up at a pace quicker than payroll taxes and corporate taxes.

But the country will spend much more than what it collects. Rising interest payments, large federal stimulus bills, and the growing costs of Social Security and Medicare benefits for retiring baby boomers are some of the government’s largest spending items.

Source: CBO (Data excludes offsetting receipts)

Of the Federal agencies budgeted to spend the highest amount, health and human services top the list. Small percentage increases are a lot in actual dollar amounts when trillions are involved. Social Security is the agency consuming the second most amount, followed by the Treasury, which is experiencing growing interest expenses.

Looking at a broader swath of areas that should benefit as a result of government budget expansion, we see in the graph above the top three areas already mentioned, followed by at least a trillion spent over ten years in defense, veterans affairs, agriculture, transportation, personnel, education, and homeland security.

For Investors to Think About

Short-term investors tend to ignore some approaching realities while overly focusing on others. Long-term, investors may find that the cost and expansion of public debt will eventually have the US responsible to pay more in interest over the next decade. By 2033, the net interest on public debt is expected to make up 14% of the federal government’s total spending.

There was another period in US history when net interest made up such a large slice of Federal spending, this was in the mid-to-late 1980s. Eventually, Congress did pay some attention to deficit reduction; it took years to taper the growth. The resurgence of the expanding debt trend in recent years has been explosive.

Interest rates on bonds could have built upward pressure as more debt would need to be issued to refinance at higher rates and pay for additional spending. A greater supply of debt without a growing supply of buyers is a recipe for higher bond yields. Are higher yields attractive? In bond markets, the value of a fixed bond goes down when rates rise. Floating rate bonds tend to approximate par throughout their life, but the Treasury and Wall Street have not been quick to issue these in the face of rising coupon rates.

Stock market investors may find value in investing in companies that receive 25% or more of their revenue from government contracts, particularly those agencies on the chart above that are budgeted to grow by billions or trillions. This could include smaller companies where the impact is greater. Within this category are aerospace contractors like Kratos (KTOS), communications companies like Comtech (CMTL), or transportation-related spending that could benefit dredging from companies like Great Lakes Dredge and Dock (GLDD).

The smaller companies mentioned may benefit from the massive budget growth. But they are not alone, Channelchek is a great source of data and discovery of many companies doing great things that are destined to become even greater. Be sure to sign-up for all the free resources available to investors by going here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.cbo.gov/

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58848

https://www.cbo.gov/data/budget-economic-data#11

https://www.cbo.gov/data/estimate-presidents-budget-proposals

https://www.usdebtclock.org/

Will AI Allow for Better Service, Higher Profit?

Posted on February 16, 2023February 16, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will AI Learn to Become a Better Entrepreneur than You?

Contemporary businesses use artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist with operations and compete in the marketplace. AI enables firms and entrepreneurs to make data-driven decisions and to quicken the data-gathering process. When creating strategy, buying, selling, and increasing marketplace discovery, firms need to ask: What is better, artificial or human intelligence?

A recent article from the Harvard Business Review, “Can AI Help You Sell?,” stated, “Better algorithms lead to better service and greater success.” The attributes of the successful entrepreneur, such as calculated risk taking, dealing with uncertainty, keen sense for market signals, and adjusting to marketplace changes might be a thing of the past. Can AI take the place of the human entrepreneur? Would sophisticated artificial intelligence be able to spot market prices better, adjust to expectations better, and steer production toward the needs of consumers better than a human?

In one of my classes this semester, students and I discussed the role of AI, deep machine learning, and natural language processing (NLP) in driving many of the decisions and operations a human would otherwise provide within the firm. Of course, half of the class felt that the integration of some level of AI into many firms’ operations and resource management is beneficial in creating a competitive advantage.

However, the other half felt using AI will inevitably disable humans’ function in the market economy, resulting in less and less individualism. In other words, the firm will be overrun by AI. We can see that even younger college students are on the fence about whether AI will eliminate humans’ function in the market economy. We concluded as a class that AI and machine learning have their promises and shortcomings.

After class, I started thinking about the digital world of entrepreneurship. E-commerce demands the use of AI to reach customers, sell goods, produce goods, and host exchange—in conjunction with a human entrepreneur, of course.

However, AI—machine learning or deep machine learning—could also be tasked with creating a business-based model, examining the data on customers’ needs, designing a web page, and creating ads. Could AI adjust to market action and react to market uncertainty like a human? The answer may be a resounding yes! So, could AI eliminate the human entrepreneur?

Algorithm-XLab explains deep machine learning as something that “allows computers to solve complex problems. These systems can even handle diverse masses of unstructured data set.” Algorithm-XLab compared deep learning with human learning favorably, stating, “While a human can easily lose concentration, and possibly make a mistake, a robot won’t.”

This statement by Algorithm-XLab challenges the idea that trial and error leads to greater market knowledge and better enables entrepreneurs to provide consumers with what they are willing to buy. The statement also portrays the marketplace as a process where people have perfect knowledge and an equilibrium point, and it implies that humans do not have specialized knowledge of time and place.

The use of AI and its tools of deep learning and language processing do have their benefits from a technical standpoint. AI can determine how to produce hula hoops better, but can it determine whether to produce them or devote energy elsewhere? If entrepreneurs discover market opportunities, they must weigh the advantages and disadvantages of their potential actions. Will AI have the same entrepreneurial foresight?

The acquisition of market knowledge can take humans years to acquire; AI is much faster at it than humans would be. For example, the Allen Institute for AI is “working on systems that can take science tests, which require a knowledge of unstated facts and common sense that humans develop over the course of their lives.” The ability to process unstated, scattered facts is precisely the kind of characteristic we attribute to entrepreneurs. Processes, changes, and choices characterize the operation of the market, and the entrepreneur is at the center of this market function.

There is no doubt that contemporary firms use deep learning for strategy, operations, logistics, sales, and record keeping for human resources (HR) decision-making, according to a Bain & Company article titled “HR’s New Digital Mandate.” While focused on HR, the digital mandate does lend itself to questioning the use of entrepreneurial thinking and strategy conducted within a firm. After AI has learned how to operate a firm using robotic process automation and NLP capacities to their maximum, might it outstrip the human natural entrepreneurial abilities?

AI is used in everyday life, such as self-checkout at the grocery store, online shopping, social media interaction, dating apps, and virtual doctor appointments. Product delivery, financing, and development services increasingly involve an AI-as-a-service component. AI as a service minimizes the costs of gathering and processing customer insights, something usually associated with a team of human minds projecting key performance indicators aligned with an organizational strategy.

The human entrepreneur has a competitive advantage insofar as handling ambiguous customer feedback and in effect creating an entrepreneurial response and delivering satisfaction. We seek to determine whether AI has replaced human energy in some areas of life. Can AI understand human uneasiness or dissatisfaction, or the subjectivity of value felt by the consumer? AI can produce hula hoops, but can it articulate plans and gather the resources needed to produce them in the first place?.

In what, if any, entrepreneurial functions can AI outperform the human entrepreneur? The human entrepreneur is willing to take risks, adjust to the needs of consumers, pick up price signals, and understand customer choices. Could the human entrepreneur soon become an extinct class? If so, would machine learning and natural processing AI understand the differences between free and highly regulated markets? If so, which would it prefer, or which would it create?

The One -Two Punch that Caught Gold Off-Guard

Posted on February 16, 2023February 17, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image Credit: RaymondClarkeImages (Flickr)

Gold Softens as Yields Rise on US Treasuries From Inflation Stickiness

As the month of February began, the talk was for gold to hit $2,000 an ounce in the first quarter. But, as is often the case with investment markets, once certainty creeps into the mindset, something unexpected often comes along and undermines it. Gold may very well reach the $2,000 price in early 2023, but it has, for now, taken a small hit caused by a resurgence of expectations related to inflation’s pervasiveness. The inflation itself isn’t necessarily a problem, it is the chain reaction of events that then follows.

The One Two-Punch Catches Gold Off-Guard

Gold futures reached 10-month highs near $1,975 just before the release of January U.S. non-farm payrolls were reported on February 3rd. The Friday release showed large gains in the employment condition which stoked old inflation worries.

Concerns about inflation had been settling down before the jobs number. One indication of that is US bond yields had been priced, by most measures, for an eventual easing of rates, not tightening of conditions. The employment report itself began to unwind gold’s strength. The price sank to below $1,830 before recovering to around $1,875. The reason is that higher inflation, begets higher expectations of bond yields, which then begets capital flows into dollars to take advantage of the higher rates available. Gold becomes relatively weaker and less desirable under these conditions.

On February 14^th, as some AU investors were falling out of love with gold, an inflation report (CPI) for January showed a tick-up in January prices over December’s numbers. This exacerbated U.S. inflation fears and helped to bring gold back under $1,850.

New Expectations

The shift in expectations over a two week period are not likely to unwind without new information which undermines the new employment and inflation reports. That doesn’t seem likely in the coming days as a just released wholesale price report (PPI) now indicates inflation is more than a services sector concern.

Gold long positions are now caught in the crosshairs of the Fed’s resolve to fight inflation. Every treasury yield spike has led to a dollar spike and been used as an opportunity to reduce demand for gold or reduce it’s relative value against US dollars.

Historically, gold prices had risen with inflation as investors bought the currency alternative as a hedge against paper currency. Currency typically loses value when prices go up. What happened then is more typical and is what is still taught in textbooks – good economic news was good for risk assets.

More recently, good economic news, worries investors because it has the potential to make inflation hotter, prompting the Fed to dial up rates and hurt everything from stocks to gold and oil. The positive correlation is on hiatus, probably until the Fed’s finger comes off the rates trigger.

Take Away

The markets had begun looking past the tightening phase after 450 bp worth of Fed Funds increases. The numbers reported in February have many investors, including those that trade currencies, precious metals, stocks, bonds, and other commodities less certain about the Fed calling for a cease fire in its inflation battle.

Of course, this new trend is young, it can conceivably be unwound in an instant in a changing world with many concerns outside and away from price increases.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources:

https://app.koyfin.com/charts/

https://www.bls.gov/

The Record Levels of Cash Held by Investors May Not Indicate a Bear Market

Posted on February 14, 2023February 14, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Image Credit: Pictures of Money (Flickr)

Investors Receiving a 5% Yield are Losing to Inflation

The CPI inflation report and the Fed’s relentless increases in Fed funds levels have pushed the six-month US Treasury Bill (T-Bill) above 5%. This is the first time since 2007 that this low-risk investment has topped 5%. Last year on this date, the six-month T-Bill was 0.76%. While the stock market is concerned that higher borrowing costs will have the Fed’s intended effect of slowing demand, rates are reaching a point where another concern creeps in. The concern is will traditional stock investors lay back and be satisfied getting paid interest.

More likely, the high cash position represents “dry powder” waiting for an opportunity.

Short Term Rates

Money Market fund assets were $4.81 trillion for the week ended Wednesday, February 8, according to the Investment Company Institute. Just shy of the record MF balances reported in January. Higher than average cash levels have often been thought of as a bullish sign as it represents potential to drive stock prices up when flows toward equities increase.

This may be part of the situation as we come off a dismal 2022 for equities, but there is likely something else incentivizing the retreat to safety. The higher interest rates are in the short end of the curve, investors are getting paid to retreat. High-yielding cash equivalents with six-month T-Bills now at 5% (10-year Treasuries are only 3.75%) may be more than a parking place. It may represent an alternative investment with a much more assured return.

Ten Year Quarterly Returns S&P 500

Is 5% an Acceptable Return?

With inflation at 6.4%, the answer is no. But it is definitely preferable to seven of the periods on the 10-year chart above. And with January’s consumer price index (CPI) report revealing signs of sticky to reaccelerating inflation, the Federal Reserve is more likely to be hiking rates for longer than expected.

For investors looking to invest for longer periods, the stock market handily beats inflation. In other words, for the various time frames below, S&P 500 investors did not see their assets erode due to inflation.

Beating inflation is foundational to investing. Far exceeding it is the goal of many. Investors are not doing this choosing cash, in fact they are choosing to lose buying power rather than risk that the market doesn’t perform as it has historically.

S&P 500 Return for Periods 5-Years to 30-Years

Take Away

Data released on Tuesday February 14 showed the inflation rate (CPI) slowed to 6.4% in January. The cost of goods and services rose 0.5% during the month. The half percentage is the largest one month erosion of purchasing power in three months.

Investors content with 4%-5% returns should consider that they are losing ground to persistent inflation.

Investors with a five-year time horizon or longer should weigh the risks of earning yields below the inflation rate to the ups and downs of stocks. In fact, as more do, the 4-5 trillion in cash can make or quite a bull market.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2022

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01162008.pdf

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/investors-are-holding-near-record-levels-of-cash-and-may-be-poised-to-snap-up-stocks.html

https://www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/average-stock-market-return#:~:text=The%20average%20stock%20market%20return%20is%20about%2010%25%20per%20year,other%20years%20it%20returns%20less.

The Week Ahead – Inflation (CPI), Jobs, and 13-f Holdings Reports

Posted on February 12, 2023February 12, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Will the Inflation Numbers on Valentine’s Cause the Market to See Red?

As earnings season fades investors that like to get a glimpse into the portfolios of successful money managers will look for the 13-f filings of some of the most followed investors as they are made available. Tuesday and Wednesday should bring Michael Burry’s and Warren Buffet’s filing. The CPI report on Tuesday is expected to show a continuation of inflation tapering. The Jobs report on Thursdays has been missing consensus, it has the potential to either calm or rattle the markets.

Monday 2/13

With no consequential economic releases, market direction may take its tone from traders positioning ahead of Tuesday’s CPI report.

Tuesday 2/14

8:30 AM ET, January’s headline CPI rate is expected to increase month to month by 0.5% after a .1% decline experienced in December, and year-over-year at 6.2% versus 6.5% the prior 12 months. Ex-food and energy (core rate) is expected to show unchanged at a 5.5% annual rate versus 5.7% the prior 12 months.
In previous years Michael Burry has made a public filing of Scion Asset Managements 13-f holdings on Valentine’s Day. Warren Buffet of Berkshire Hathaway will make available his changed positions. This filing is also likely on Tuesday or perhaps Wednesday.

Wednesday 2/15

9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production, which includes data for Manufacturing and Capacity Utilization has been contracting. January’s consensus estimates are for monthly gains of 0.5% for production and 0.4% for manufacturing and would be a welcome sign for those fearing a recession. The positive direction would be welcome after December’s monthly decline of 0.7% overall and 1.3% for manufacturing. Capacity utilization is expected to remain at a non-inflationary 78.8%.
10:00 AM ET, Business Inventories data for December are expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.4% expansion in November. Intentional inventory growth can be a sign of business optimism surrounding future sales. If unintended inventory accumulation occurs, then production will probably be throttled back as inventories are worked down. This is why Business Inventories a leading economic indicator.

10:00 AM ET, The Housing Market Index fell each month in 2022. The weak streak ended in January, as it rose 4 points to 35. February’s consensus is a further but smaller 1-point improvement to 36. The Housing Index is a monthly composite that tracks home builder assessments of present and future sales along with buyer traffic
10:00 AM ET, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations survey provides a monthly measure of year-ahead inflation expectations and inflation uncertainty from the perspective of firms. The survey also provides a monthly gauge of firms’ current sales, profit margins, and unit cost changes. The year over year estimate is for 3%.

Thursday 2/16

8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims, including Initial Claims and Continuing Claims, have been a big focus of the market as unemployment is running at a historically low pace. The consensus is for growth in Jobless levels to 199,000 versus 196,000 the prior week. Overall low claims would seem to be good news for the economy. The problem now is that it is worrisome for a Fed that views current inflationary pressures, including wage pressures unacceptably high.

Friday 2/17

8:30 AM ET, The Index of Leading Indicators has been in steep decline; it is expected to fall further, but less steeply, by 0.3 percent in January versus a fall of 0.8% in December.

What Else

Investors with interest in telecommunications company Comtech (CMTL) and located in South Florida, may be able to attend one of four special presentations by management on Monday or Tuesday. Get information here to see if this is suited for you.

Monday, February 20^th, is a holiday, and the US markets will be closed.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.thearmchairtrader.com/macroeconomic-news-6feb23/

https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us

Wage Inflation, Labor Shortages, and Who Stopped Working

Posted on February 9, 2023February 9, 2023 by phoffman@channelchek.com

Is the Mismatch in Workers and Open Jobs Proving to Be Transitory?

Inflation has been the most bearish word for the stock and bond markets over the past year or more. Shortly after many of the supply chain issues cleared up, and the cargo ships were no longer stacked up outside of major ports, attracting scarce workers with higher pay became a growing cause of inflationary pressure. At the end of November 2022, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that “job openings exceed available workers by about 4 million.” That number has now grown to 4.7 million after the continued strengthening of the market for qualified labor.

This mismatch, depicted in the Fed Data below, between available positions and workers to fill them, developed a more inflationary trend. The graph depicts the mismatch of labor supply and demand and the extent that it has worsened.

When the civilian labor force is greater than employment plus job openings, the economy has an immediate capacity to fill open positions. Currently, the employment level plus job openings are at 170.5 million, while the total labor force is at 165.8 million. Thus the 4.7 million quoted earlier. There are a whopping 4.7 million more jobs available compared to people available to fill them.

The civilian labor force, the amount of people working or looking for a job, is shown below in red; the current employment level plus the number of job openings is shown in blue.

Labor Participation Hesitancy

The pandemic has been emphasized as a cause of this not-very-transitory labor shortage, but the trends in labor demand and labor supply in the graph above indicate that demand was already outpacing supply as the US entered 2018. This was two years before the novel coronavirus hit US shores. Back then the mismatch was about one million workers fewer than jobs available before the economic disruption.

As the US began to move toward business-as-usual, news and market analysts offered many explanations for the labor shortage. These included childcare problems, health concerns, minimum wage pushback, and even a wave of new retirees.

The visual below shows the change experienced in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for specific age groups: 20 to 24 years old, 25 to 54 years old, and 55+ years old. By subtracting the most recent LFPR from that of January 2020 we get the percentage-point change in labor force participation relative to the month just before the pandemic began impacting businesses.

When the pandemic hit, the sharpest decline in the LFPR was for workers between the ages of 20 and 24. Their LFPR decreased from 73% to 64.4% in 4 months before increasing again. However, at the end of 2022, the LFPR for 20- to 24-year-olds still hadn’t fully recovered and remained 1.7 percentage points below its January 2020 value.

This overall pattern is similar but less extreme for the other age groups. Although no age group fully recovered by the end of 2022, the 25-54 group was closest, at 0.7 percentage points below its January 2002 level. There’s been speculation older workers retired early (and permanently) during the pandemic, and the 55+ group remained 1.4 percentage points below its January 2020 level as of December 2022, with no sign of further recovery.

Take Away

The mechanisms that cause inflation are widely understood. If there is a shortage of goods because of the supply chain, sellers can ask more for the product. If the cost of producing goods or providing services increase, perhaps because of the cost of labor, the seller may try to pass those higher costs along. On the demand-pull side, if there is an abundance of currency, this increases demand for goods and services and is also inflationary.

While the Fed has been waging a fight against rising prices by removing liquidity and ratcheting up the cost of money (interest rates), the number of open jobs compared to the number of workers available to fill them has widened.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/searchresults/?st=unemployment%20rate&isTst=1