GDPNow from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Has a Surprising Forecast
If good news is bad, The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow report is horrible – that’s how good it is. GDPNow is a model for estimating Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Created and published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, it has been fairly accurate in recent years. An estimate of third-quarter US GDP released on August 15th forecasts that growth is increasing dramatically – inflation is also shown to inch up in the forecast.
The Indicator
GDPNow uses recently published economic data to update a model to estimate GDP, a statistic that is reported with a significant lag to the input data.The output, or forecast, is an aggregation of other current economic indicators within the quarter. The data is entered into the mathematical model to calculate a GDP estimate at that specific point in time. There are still 45 days left in the third quarter, but up until now, this is what it calculated the growth to have been. As time passes and more reports are issued, more economic indicators are fed into the model. These reports come from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Department of the Treasury. The accumulated data contributes to the historical accuracy of GDPNow’s calculations in relation to the GDP reports that the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases.
The Current Forecast
The GDPNow model’s latest estimates show the real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2023 is 5.0 percent on August 15, up from 4.1 percent where the estimate stood on August 8. Included in the model are recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service.
The model also provides other forecasts, from statistics, that will present themselves during the quarter and be finalized after the quarter ends. This includes third-quarter real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Remember that PCE is the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation gauge. The PCE inflation forecast, by this model, has been near accurate. It’s latest forecast is for it to rise to 4.4% annualized.
Take Away
There are a lot of mixed signals in the market recently, savings is down, consumer borrowing is up, interest rates out on the yield curve have finally moved up, and there are some fund managers that are extremely bearish, while bullishness is on the rise on the prospect of a soft or undetectable economic landing in the US.
The GDPNow snapshot of where a mathematical model shows where we may be now has no human intervention. It is created by a model without the kinds of bias that could cause a human to overweigh one factor over another. The most recent report shows tremendous growth and an uptick in inflation. In today’s financial marketplace, where the markets still sell-off on good economic news and rally on bad, it’s uncertain what this means for the markets. But it is important for investors to understand that others view this and weigh it in their own expectations.
The Trading Week Ahead Could See Investors Continuing to Adjust to the Flattening Yield Curve
Bill Ackman says he’s short the U.S. Treasury long bond. Michael Burry, who tends to see things before others, had been short a derivative of Treasuries two summers ago, was he involved in interest rates this most recent quarter-end? We will get a glimpse into what these two, plus Warren Buffett and a host of others, as time runs out on their 13-F filing as of the close of business on Monday.
Last week many investors went from betting on a soft-landing a few weeks ago to now thinking interest rates along the curve are too low. The impetus for the shift was the CPI and PPI reports last week had provided nothing for the Fed to stop or slow down tightening. This concerns stock market investors. Higher rates, at a minimum, are beginning to provide an attractive alternative to a stock market that has already run up above average. This is because investors can now be choosier as their cash is far more productive, even after inflation, than it has been in years. Individual companies that have great prospects, rather index ETFs where you hold the good with the bad, would seem more prudent in the current scenario.
Monday 8/14
• 13-F Day is the SEC deadline for funds that manage more than $100 million in assets, that they must divulge positions held as of the end of the previous quarter. For example, Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management hedge fund, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Capital Holdings, and all U.S. asset managers of size have 45 days from quarter-end to file. A very large percentage choose to file on the 45th day, August 14th is 45 days from June 30th. Investors pour through the 13_f filings of top investors looking for insights.
Tuesday 8/15
• 8:30 AM ET, The consensus for Retail Sales for July is up 0.4% after an unexpectedly poor showing in June of a gain of 0.2%. Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores.
• 8:30 AM ET, Import and Export Prices are expected to show that import prices increased 0.2% in July after falling 0.2% in June. Export prices are expected to have increased 0.1% after dropping 0.9% in June. The underlying value of this report is the measure of global inflationary trends. Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced within the U.S.
• 4:00 AM ET, Treasury International Capital is the tracking of who holds U.S. securities, or put another way, where in the world are U.S. Stocks, U.S. Treasuries, Agencies, and Corporate Bonds. TIC has recently been watched by a wider group as it is a measure of foreign demand for our assets. The prior number (May) showed net long-term transactions abroad of U.S. securities at $25.8 billion.
Wednesday 8/16
• 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) compiles data which indicates demand for mortgages. Data from the previous week indicate a drop in their Purchasing index of 2.7%, and a decline in its Refinance index of 4.0%.
• 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts month over month for July are expected to have increased to 1.464 million from 1.44 million in June.
• 9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production had fallen 0.5 percent for two straight months; forecasters expect a rebound of 0.3 percent in July. After falling 0.3 and 0.2 percent, manufacturing output is seen as unchanged. Capacity utilization is expected to rise to 79.1 from 78.9 percent, still below what is considered inflationary.
• 10:30 PM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.
• 2:00 PM ET, FOMC minutes are from the meeting three weeks ago, where the Fed adjusted the overnight target upward. This report has recently been market-moving as it details the issues of debate and consensus among policymakers.
Thursday 8/17
• 8:30 AM ET, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have fallen the week ended August 12th to 240,000 following a 21,000 jump to 248,000 last week, in the absence of inflation data, the market places adds emphasis on unexpected results in the labor market.
• 10:00 AM ET, E-Commerce Retail Sales for the second quarter are scheduled for release. During the first quarter, online retail transactions had increased by 3%.
• 4:30 AM ET, the weekly report on the Fed’s Balance Sheet is now awaited each week as it provides statistics on whether the Fed is fulfilling its quantitative tightening promise on schedule. It also could provide an early tip-off if there is a problem within the banking system. The report from the week prior showed $8.208 trillion in assets, and bank reserve credit declining $18,685 billion.
Friday 8/18
• 10:00 AM ET, The Quarterly Services Survey is not usually a large focus, but it is the only economic number printing on what may very well be a lightly traded late summer Friday. The report includes industry information; professional, scientific, and technical services; administrative & support services; and waste management (NAICS 51, 54, and 56). Last quarter, these industries experienced 2.9% growth, or 9.7% year-on-year.
What Else
A press release dated Friday, August 11th, stated that Greg Steube, a Representative from Florida’s 17th district had filed “Articles of Impeachment Against Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr., President of the United States, For High Crimes and Misdemeanors.” What this could mean for markets, if the past is an indicator, is very little. There could be days where traders are largely distracted by news stories that may come from this, but the soundness of the U.S. or the global economy is not likely to be hanging in the balance on any outcome from the proceedings.
This Trading Week Markets Will See if CPI Confirms Decelerating Inflation
After last week’s employment figures came in lower than expectations, this week the potential catalyst for a shift in monetary policy is inflation measures. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for release on Thursday. The June report allowed for optimism that inflation was not only moving in a favorable direction but that a sustainable downward trajectory was emerging. However, the upcoming July figures might not live up to the market celebration that followed the previous CPI report. This is because rising energy costs are likely to contribute to an increase in the year-over-year all-items CPI rate. If the core CPI annual rate does not exhibit substantial progress in its declining trend, this could set the stage for another interest rate hike as early as the September 19-20 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Monday 8/7
• 3:00 AM ET, Consumer credit is expected to increase $14.1 billion in June versus a smaller-than-expected increase of $7.3 billion in May.
Tuesday 8/8
• 6:00 AM ET, The Small Business Optimism Index has been well below the historical average of 98 for 18 months in a row. July’s consensus is 91.5 versus 91.0 in June.
• 8:30 AM ET, An International Trade in Goods and Services deficit of $65.4 billion is expected in June for total goods and services trade. This would compare with a $69.0 billion deficit in May. Advance data on the goods side of June’s report showed a $4.0 billion narrowing in the deficit.
• 10:00 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories preliminary number (second estimate) is expected down 0.3 percent, unchanged from the first estimate.
Wednesday 8/9
• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.
Thursday 8/10
• 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.2 percent, which would match June. Annual rates, which in June were 3.0 percent overall and 4.8 percent for the core, are expected at 3.3 and 4.8 percent, respectively. Core prices in July are expected to hold steady at a modest monthly increase of 0.2 percent which would match June’s showing.
• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the August 5 week are expected to come in at 230,000 versus 227,000 in the prior week, which was 6,000 higher than expected.
• 4:30 AM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is expected to have decreased by $36.580 to $8.207 trillion. Market participants and Fed watchers look to this weekly set of numbers to determine, among other things if the Fed is on track with its stated quantitative tightening (QT) plan.
Friday 8/11
• 8:30 AM ET, Producer Prices in July are expected to have risen 0.2 percent on the month versus a 0.1 percent increase in June. The annual rate in July is seen as rising 0.7 percent versus June’s gain. July’s ex-food and ex-energy rate is seen at 0.2 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year versus June’s 0.1 percent on the month and 2.4 percent yearly rate.
• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment in August, which in July jumped more than 7 points to 71.6, is expected to edge back .3 to 71.3.
What Else
Crude Oil futures rose to around $83 per barrel, hovering at the highest levels in four months. The main reason is the Saudi Arabia and Russia’s announcement that they would extend voluntary supply cuts through next month to bolster oil prices. Saudi Arabia said on Thursday it would extend its 1 million barrels per day production cut for another month, while Russia said it will also reduce its oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September. Saudi Arabia also said its production cuts could be extended beyond September or deepened, catching markets off guard.
Most industries are impacted by energy prices, we whether it is all conasumer prices, or core, crude oil trading impacts consumer prices.
DeSantis Thinks the Federal Reserve, Elitists, and China, Should all Have Less Power in Our Financial Lives
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, appointed by President Trump, then reappointed by President Biden recently got a lot of attention from Florida governor and presidential hopeful Ron DeSantis – and it wasn’t the kind of attention someone in Powell’s position would welcome. This week, in his first big speech on the economy, DeSantis separated himself from the top candidates from each political party by vowing to “rein in” the Fed.
The platform DeSantis unveiled this week helps establish his position and puts a face on his campaign that is decidedly above the culture wars of other political campaigns. It also creates a clear difference in economic issues between himself and his party’s frontrunner, also from Florida, Donald Trump.
In a campaign speech in New Hampshire, DeSantis blamed the US central bank for high inflation, and its dipping a toe into social policy. He was also very critical of the Fed considering a digital dollar that would compete with private crypto, which the candidate does not oppose.
The overall tone as he began to lay out his economic agencda, was one of looking to curb the power of large corporations, limit ties to China, and stand against powerful elites. “We need to rein in the Federal Reserve. It is not designed or supposed to be an economic central planner. It is not supposed to be indulging in social justice or social engineering,” the governor said. He continued, “It’s got one job, maintaining stable prices, and it has departed from that with what it’s done over the past many years.”
Coming to Florida this December is the premier investor conference, NobleCon19. You’re invited to join over 100 company executives and investors from around the globe as they seek better understanding of opportunities direct from senior management, then network in an environment that fosters making great contacts.
As statements that could be taken as a shot at the current Fed chairman, DeSantis said he would not likely support another term for Powell. “I will appoint a Chair of the Federal Reserve who understands the limited role that it has and focuses on making sure that prices are stable for American businesses and consumers, said DeSantis.
What seemed to be his biggest gripe with how the Federal Reserve has been run is with monetary policy. He believes that policy was kept too easy for too long after the financial crisis and pandemic. He believes this contributed to the high inflation, which forced a rapid tightening from policy makers.
The popular governor of the third most populace state, also railed against the Fed’s steps toward creating a central bank digital currency (CBDC), saying it was trying to crush financial liberty and seize more control over financial transactions.
“Why did they want this? They want to go to a cashless society. They want to eliminate cryptocurrency and they want all the transactions to go through this central bank digital currency,” DeSantis proclaimed.
The DeSantis economic vision, as described, was consistent with his reputation as Florida’s executive which is one that stands against the abuses of government power and big business. “We cannot have policy that kowtows to the largest corporations and Wall Street at the expense of small businesses and average Amerricans.” He continued, “There is a difference between a free-market economy, which we want, and corporatism in which the rules are jiggered to be able to help incumbent companies.”
He also expressed concern over loss of economic sovereignty sharply saying, “We have to restore the economic sovereignty of this country and take back control of our economy from China. This abusive relationship between two countries, must come to an end.”
Take Away
DeSantis is on the road, both showing he has an understanding of economics and unveiling a plan that is distinct from the top two candidates, both of which have already occupied the White House. DeSantis is being watched very closely by both political parties as he is a very popular governor with a lot of admiration and a large following. Florida remains a beneficiary of the large migration of businesses and families out of other states looking for a more innovative, fiscally responsible, less constricting place to live and do business.
The crypto-unit bitcoin holds out the prospect of something revolutionary: money created in the free market, money the production and use of which the state has no access to. The transactions carried out with it are anonymous; outsiders do not know who paid and who received the payment. It would be money that cannot be multiplied at will, whose quantity is finite, that knows no national borders, and that can be used unhindered worldwide. This is possible because the bitcoin is based on a special form of electronic data processing and storage: blockchain technology (a “distributed ledger technology,” DLT), which can also be described as a decentralized account book.
Think through the consequences if such a “denationalized” form of money should actually prevail in practice. The state can no longer tax its citizens as before. It lacks information on the labor and capital incomes of citizens and enterprises and their total wealth. The only option left to the state is to tax the assets in the “real world”—such as houses, land, works of art, etc. But this is costly and expensive. It could try to levy a “poll tax”: a tax in which everyone pays the same absolute tax amount—regardless of the personal circumstances of the taxpayers, such as income, wealth, ability, to achieve and so on. But would that be practicable? Could it be enforced? This is doubtful.
The state could also no longer simply borrow money. In a cryptocurrency world, who would give credit to the state? The state would have to justify the expectation that it would use the borrowed money productively to service its debt. But as we know, the state is not in a position to do this or is in a much worse position than private companies. So even if the state could obtain credit, it would have to pay a comparatively high interest rate, severely restricting its scope for credit financing.
In view of the financial disempowerment of the state by a cryptocurrency, the question arises: Could the state as we know it today still exist at all, could it still mobilize enough supporters and gather them behind it? After all, the fantasies of redistribution and enrichment that today drive many people as voters into the arms of political parties and ideologies would disappear into thin air. The state would no longer function as a redistribution machine; it basically would have little or no money to finance political promises. Cryptocurrencies therefore have the potential to herald the end of the state as we know it today.
The transition from the national fiat currencies to a cryptocurrency created in the free market has, above all, consequences for the existing fiat monetary system and the production and employment structure it has created. Suppose a cryptocurrency (C) rises in the favor of money demanders. It is increasingly in demand and therefore appreciates against the established fiat currency (F). If the prices of goods, calculated in F, remain unchanged, the holder of C records an increase in his purchasing power: one obtains more F for C and can purchase more goods, provided that the prices of goods, calculated in F, remain unchanged.
Since C has now appreciated compared to F, the prices of the goods expressed in F must also rise sooner or later—otherwise the holder of C could arbitrate by exchanging C for F and then paying the prices of the goods labeled in F. And because more and more people want to use C as money, goods prices will soon be labeled not only in F, but also in C. When money users increasingly turn away from F because they see C as the better money, the purchasing power devaluation of F continues. Because F is an unbacked currency, in extreme cases it can lose its purchasing power and become a total loss.
The decline in the purchasing power of F will have far-reaching consequences for the production and employment structure of the economy. It leads to an increase in market interest rates for loans denominated in F. Investments that have so far seemed profitable turn out to be a flop. Companies cut jobs. Debtors whose loans become due have problems obtaining follow-up loans and become insolvent. The boom provided by the fiat currencies collapses and turns into a bust. If the central banks accompany this bust with an expansion of the money supply, the exchange rate of the fiat currencies against the cryptocurrency will fall even further. The purchasing power of the sight, time, and savings deposits and bonds denominated in fiat currencies would be lost; in the event of loan defaults, creditors could only hope to be (partially) compensated by the collateral values, if any.
However, the bitcoin has not yet developed to the point where it could be a perfect substitute for the fiat currencies. For example, the performance of the bitcoin network is not yet large enough. At present, it is operating at full capacity when it processes around 360,000 payments per day. In Germany alone, however, around 75 million transfers are made in one working day! Another problem with bitcoin transactions is finality. In modern fiat cash payment systems, there is a clearly identifiable point in time at which a payment is legally and de facto completed, and from that point on the money transferred can be used immediately. However, DLT consensus techniques (such as proof of work) only allow relative finality, and this is undoubtedly detrimental to the money user (because blocks added to the blockchain can subsequently become invalid by resolving forks).
The transaction costs are also of great importance regarding whether the bitcoin can assert itself as a universally used means of payment. In the recent past, there have been some major fluctuations in this area: In mid-June 2019, a transaction cost about $4.10, in December 2017 it peaked at more than $37, but in the meantime for many months it had been only $0.07. In addition, the time taken to process a transaction had also fluctuated considerably at times, which may be disadvantageous from the point of view of bitcoin users in view of the emergence of instant payment for fiat cash payments.
Another important aspect is the question of the “intermediary.” Bitcoin is designed to enable intermediary-free transactions between participants. But do the market participants really want intermediary–free money? What if there are problems? For example, if someone made a mistake and transferred one hundred bitcoins instead of one, he cannot reverse the transaction. And nobody can help him! The fact that many hold their bitcoins in trading venues and not in their private digital wallets suggests that even in a world of cryptocurrencies there is a demand for intermediaries offering services such as storage and security of private keys.
However, as soon as intermediaries come into play, the transaction chain is no longer limited to the digital world, but reaches the real world. At the interface between the digital and the real world, a trustworthy entity is required. Just think of credit transactions. They cannot be performed unseen (trustless) and anonymously. Payment defaults can happen here, and therefore the lender wants to know who the borrower is, what credit quality he has, what collateral he provides. And if the bridge is built from the digital to the real world, the crypto-money inevitably finds itself in the crosshairs of the state. However, this bridge will ultimately be necessary, because in modern economies with a division of labor, money must have the capacity for intermediation.
It is safe to assume that technology will continue to make progress, that it will remove many remaining obstacles. However, it can also be expected that the state will make every effort to discourage a free market for money, for example, by reducing the competitiveness of alternative money media such as precious metals and crypto-units vis-à-vis fiat money through tax measures (such as turnover and capital gains taxes). As long as this is the case, it will be difficult even for money that is better in all other respects to assert itself.
Therefore, technical superiority alone will probably not be sufficient to help free market money—whether in the form of gold, silver, or crypto-units—achieve a breakthrough. In addition, and above all, it will be necessary for people to demand their right to self-determination in the choice of money or to recognize the need to make use of it. Ludwig von Mises has cited the “sound-money principle” in this context: “[T]he sound-money principle has two aspects. It is affirmative in approving the market’s choice of a commonly used medium of exchange. It is negative in obstructing the government’s propensity to meddle with the currency system.” And he continues: “It is impossible to grasp the meaning of the idea of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments. Ideologically it belongs in the same class with political constitutions and bills of rights.”
These words make it clear that in order for a free market for money to become at all possible, quite a substantial change must take place in people’s minds. We must turn away from democratic socialism, from all socialist-collectivist false doctrines, from their state-glorifying delusion, no longer listen to socialist appeals to envy and resentment. This can only be achieved through better insight, acceptance of better ideas and logical thinking. Admittedly, this is a difficult undertaking, but it is not hopeless. Especially since there is a logical alternative to democratic socialism: the private law society with a free market for money. What this means is outlined in the final chapter of this book.
About the Author:
Dr. Thorsten Polleit is Chief Economist of Degussa and Honorary Professor at the University of Bayreuth. He also acts as an investment advisor.
This Trading Week – Earnings Reports are Likely to Set the Tone
Just over half of the companies in the S&P 500 have now reported second-quarter earnings. Of these companies, 80% have surprised on the high side with actual EPS above the average estimate – 4% have reported earnings equal to the average expectations. The reporting sectors beating estimates by the most are Information Technology at 93%, and Communication Services, which beat average estimates 92% of the time. Of sectors that beat the least often, Utilities and Financials were at the bottom of the list at 67% and 70%, respectively, surpassing average estimates. These are also above 50%, supporting strong stock markets.
The weaker US dollar has helped companies with more international exposure as these have had improved year-over-year earnings above those companies with a higher percentage of domestic revenue.
The markets are likely to focus on the earnings reports this week as economic releases will be slow. Stocks may also take its cue from interest rates that have been rising for longer duration US Treasuries.
Monday 7/31
• 9:45 AM ET, The Chicago Purchasing Managers Report is expected to improve 2 points in July to a still very weak 43.5 versus 41.5 in June, which was the tenth straight month of sub-50 contraction. Readings above 50 indicate an expanding business sector.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is expected to post a 15th straight negative score, at a consensus minus 22.5 in July versus minus 23.2 in June. The Dallas Survey gives a detailed look at Texas’ manufacturing sector, how busy it is, and where it is headed. Since manufacturing is a major sector of the economy, this report can greatly influence the markets.
Tuesday 8/1
• 9:45 AM ET, the final Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for manufacturing for July is expected to come in at 49.0, unchanged from the mid-month flash to indicate marginal contraction (above 50 indicates expansion).
• 10:00 AM ET, Construction Spending for June is expected to rise a further 0.6 percent following May’s 0.9 percent increase that benefited from a sharp jump in residential spending.
• 10:00 AM ET, JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) still strong but slowing is the consensus for June as it is expected to ease 9.650 million from 9.824 million.
Wednesday 8/2
• 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales are expected to slow after a much higher-than-expected 763,000 annualized rate in May. Junes are expected to have slowed to 727,000.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.
Thursday 8/3
• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the week ended July 30, 2023, are expected to come in at 225,000 versus 221,000 in the prior week. Claims have been moving lower in recent weeks. This is a classic case of where what might otherwise be considered worsening news (increased jobless claims) may be taken well by the market as tight labor markets are considered additive to inflation pressures.
• 8:30 AM ET, Productivity and Costs (nonfarm) is expected to rise at a 1.3 percent annualized rate in the second quarter versus 2.1 percent contraction in the first quarter. Unit labor costs, which rose 4.2 percent in the first quarter, are expected to rise to a 2.6 percent rate in the second quarter.
• 9:45 AM ET, PMI Services. Following Tuesday’s PMI Composite Final for manufacturing, which has been contracting, the Services Purchasing Managers Index is expected to indicate no change at 52.4 as the July final.
• 10:00 AM ET, Factory Orders are expected to rise 1.7 percent in June versus May’s 0.3 percent gain. Factory Orders is a leading indicator that economists and investors watch as it has been a fairly reliable indicator of future economic activity.
• 10:00 AM ET, The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) gauge is expected to have slowed to 53 from June’s 53.9 level. An ISM reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.
• 4:30 AM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is expected to have decreased by $31.208 billion to $8.243 trillion. Market participants and Fed watchers look to this weekly set of numbers to determine, among other things if the Fed is on track with its stated quantitative tightening (QT) plan.
Friday 8/4
• 8:30 AM ET, Employment Situation is expected to show that the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%, with a consensus for payrolls at 200,000 versus the 209,000 reported in June.
What Else
On Thursday quarterly results will be reported on Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The week will be the busiest one of the earnings season. About 30% of the S&P 500 will give their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Robinhood (HOOD). Several big pharma companies are getting ready to report, and it’s a big week for industrial companies and big oil as well.
We’re near the halfway point for Summer 2023. Have you signed up to receive Channelchek market-related news and analysis in your inbox? Now is a good time to make sure you don’t miss anything!
The Surprisingly High Economic Growth Numbers Aren’t Spooking Investors
Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is one of the best measures of U.S. economic health. The second quarter GDP report as well as the first quarter upward revision, fully support the idea that the economy is growing above expectations and that the Fed’s rate hike in July was justified. This places equity investors in the position they have become very familiar with, wondering if they should be bullish on stocks as the economy rolls on, or should they be bearish as the Fed’s reaction could cause a period of negative growth (recession). Seeing how the Dow is on a winning streak of a dozen days in a row, even as the Fed resumed tightening, it may be that the forward-looking stock market has turned the corner and is now taking good news as good news, and bad news as bad, once again.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
GDP was much stronger than expected – economists surveyed by FactSet were expecting a 1.5% gain. This was the first data release since the July FOMC meeting; it will however be followed on Friday by two other key indicators. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.4% annual rate in the second quarter (first estimate of GDP). This is significantly better than economists’ projections and makes abundantly clear that through last quarter, the economy was far from contracting or recessionary.
Contributors to the better-than-expected growth are increases in consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending, according to the BEA. Non-manufacturing contributors (services) included housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and transportation services. The contribution to goods spending was led by recreational goods and vehicles as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
Other Market-Moving Releases
The GDP report was the first piece of economic data following the Federal Reserve’s meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday; this concluded with a quarter-point increase in the central bank’s target for the fed-funds rate. That now leaves the Fed’s benchmark rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Jobs and the tight employment market, where there are currently more jobs available than workers looking for employment, should still be a big focus of monetary policymakers. On Friday July 28, the employment cost index (ECI) is expected to show that the hourly labor cost to employers in the second quarter grew at a 4.8% annual rate, and by 1.1% quarter to quarter, according to the consensus estimate by FactSet. That’s little changed from the first quarter, when compensation costs for civilian workers increased by 4.8% annually and at a 1.2% rate quarter over quarter, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor tightness and wage inflation are both concerning for the Fed and provide evidence that a more restrictive policy is needed.
Investors should look for ECI to provide some insight into how sticky service inflation is right now. This is of high importance because, within the service sector, wages tend to be the highest input cost. If the number comes in higher than expected, that could be a worrisome sign of continued stubborn inflation, which then indicates the need for additional rate hikes.
At the same time the ECI report is released on Friday, the PCE data is released. While the market’s tendency over the months has been to hyperfocus on the “Fed’s favorite inflation measure,” PCE may take a back seat in terms of significance to ECI data.
Take Away
Inflation rates coming down while the economy grows is, if inflation declines enough, a soft economic landing. The stock market, which had been reacting negatively to strong economic news, is beginning to show signs that it expects a soft landing – while this lasts, the markets could continue their winning streak.
“We’re Not Finished Yet” According to the FOMC Post Meeting Statement
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to raise its target rate on overnight interest rates from 5.00% – 5.25% to 5.25%-5.50% after the July 2023 meeting. This 25 bp move follows a pause in rate hikes decided during the June meeting. The Fed still maintains a hawkish stance after raising the Fed Funds rate to its highest level in 22 years and leaving quantitative tightening (QT) targets unchanged.
The implementation note following the meeting spells out QT implementation to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet as:
“Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of Treasury securities maturing in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $60 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap.”
“Reinvest into agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS received in each calendar month that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month.”
QT is an important part of the Federal Reserve Bank reducing the stimulus effect of having injected, through quantitative easing (QE), substantial amounts of money into the U.S. economy.
Words in the statement, particularly those changed from the prior meeting, are placed under the spotlight. In June, the FOMC members felt the U.S. economy was “growing” at a “modest” pace. Now it sees “more growth”—at a “moderate” level. This indicates that they may believe they have a higher need to continue tightening credit conditions.
At the previous meeting a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for the Fed Funds Rate indicated the Fed expected two additional 25 bp increases. While no SEP is available after the July meeting, the view the economy has become stronger, would suggest that at a minimum, another 25 bp is likely.
The FOMC as the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve is, as it says, “data dependent” when determining what tightening or other moves may be appropriate in the future.
This Trading Week May be Pivotal in the Push and Pull Between Bulls and Bears
The overwhelming focus this week is on the FOMC meeting Tuesday and Wednesday. There is widespread expectation that after skipping a chance to raise rates in June, the Federal Reserve will bump the overnight lending rate up by 25 bp. This would push the target to 5.25%-5.50%. Policymakers have been clear that they don’t believe they are finished in their battle against inflation but have always maintained their actions are data-dependent. Data on inflation over the past month indicate previous moves could be having the desired impact. If the FOMC determines inflation is trending toward its goal of 2% and is expected to stay on the path, it may not find another hike prudent. However, the Fed won’t see a June reading on its preferred inflation indicator, the PCE deflator, until after the FOMC meeting.
Monday 7/24
• 8:30 AM ET, The Chicago Fed National Activity Index in June is expected to have risen to just above neutral at 0.03 (zero equals historical average growth). This would be up from a lower-than-expected minus 0.15 in May.
• 9:45 AM ET, The Purchasing Managers Index Composite flash reading has been above 50 in the last five reports with the consensus for July at 54.0 versus June’s 54.4. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) output versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster output is growing (contracting).
Tuesday 7/25
• 9:00 AM ET, The Federal Open Market Committee meeting to decide the direction of monetary policy begins.
• 1:00 PM ET, Money Supply is forecast to show that M2 for the month of June rose 0.6% to $20,805.5 billion. The markets resumed focusing on money supply as a way to view the progress and impact of quantitative easing. It helps decipher how the Fed’s actions are filtering through the economy.
Wednesday 7/26
• 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales are expected to slow after a much higher-than-expected 763,000 annualized rate in May. Junes are expected to have slowed to 727,000.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.
• 2:00 PM ET, The FOMC announcement. After holding steady in June, the Fed is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25 to 5.50 percent.
• 2:30 PM ET, The post FOMC Chair Powell press conference helps market participants understand the Fed’s decision(s), if any, during their two-day meeting.
Thursday 7/27
• 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are forecast to have risen 0.5 percent in July following June’s 1.8 percent jump. Ex-transportation orders are expected to edge 0.1 percent lower as are core capital goods orders, after also coming in high the previous reporting period.
• 8:30 AM ET, Second-quarter GDP is expected to slow to 1.5 percent annualized growth versus first-quarter growth of 2.0 percent. Personal consumption expenditures, after the first quarter’s burst higher to plus 4.2 percent, are again expected to rise but by only 1.5 percent. Whether or not the US has entered a recession is substantially hinged on whether GDP is negative for a prolonged period (typically two quarters).
• 4:30 AM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is expected to have decreased by $22.371 billion to $8.275 trillion. Market participants and Fed watchers look to this weekly set of numbers to determine, among other things if the Fed is on track with its stated quantitative tightening (QT) plan.
Friday 7/28
• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims Jobless for the week ended July 22 are expected to come in at 235,000 versus 228,000 in the prior week.
• 8:30 AM ET, Wholesale Inventories are expected to increase 0.1 percent (advance report) for June, it was unchanged in May.
• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment is expected to end July at 72.6, unchanged from July’s mid-month flash and more than 8 points higher from June. Year-ahead inflation expectations are expected to hold at the mid-month’s 3.4 percent which was one tenth higher than June.
What Else
The week ahead is also set to be the busiest one of earnings season. Thursday will be the most intense day. About 30% of the S&P 500 will give their financial updates during the week, including Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta. Several big pharma companies are getting ready to report and it’s a big week for industrial companies and big oil as well.
Sign up for Channelchek updates on this week’s FOMC meeting as announcements unfold, and to be updated on other critical information.
There will be a number of Roadshows held during the week in South Florida and St. Louis. Learn more about who’s presenting and how to attend by clicking here.
Why Economic Data Doesn’t Reconcile With Personal Experience
Does grocery shopping and eating out cost the same as it did in 2019? Government statistics on personal consumption and expenditures would seem to indicate they do. Most of us know that we are paying noticeably more to eat than we did a few years ago. Below is an article explaining the flaws in government data and the nuances that hide actual experience from this set of numbers. It is written by Dr. Jonathan Newman, he is a Fellow at the Mises Institute, his research focuses on inflation and business cycles, and the history of economic thought. – Paul Hoffman, Managing Editor, Channelchek.
Economist Jeremy Horpedahl dismissed the silly claim by anticapitalists that capitalism must engineer food scarcity for the sake of profits. He presented a graph of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data demonstrating a substantial decrease in household food expenditure as a percentage of income—from 44 percent in 1901 to a mere 9 percent in 2021. This is something to celebrate and certainly can be attributed to the abundance of market economies.
But when Jordan Peterson asked, “And what’s happened the last two years?” I went digging. First, I confirmed Horpedahl’s observation: the amount we spend on food as a proportion of our budget has fallen dramatically. Second, I saw what Peterson hinted at: a significant spike in food spending when covid and the associated mess of government interventions hit (figure 1).
Figure 1: Food and personal consumption expenditures, 1959–2023
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRED.
Interestingly, the spike looks like a blip. Someone oblivious to the events of the past few years might see this chart and say, “Yeah, something strange happened in 2020, but it looks like everything is back to normal.” I’m certain that this doesn’t align with anyone’s experience, however. Even today, no one would say that restaurant visits and grocery store trips cost the same as they did in 2019.
What changed in 2020? Why does this graph not feel right? Assuming the Bureau of Economic Analysis data isn’t totally off (and it is important to be skeptical of government data), why would a January 2023 report on consumer inflation sentiment conclude that “there is a disconnect between the inflation data reported by the government and what consumers say they now pay for necessities”?
The difference lies in the qualitative aspects of our experience as consumers. Spending proportions may have returned to their trend, but that isn’t the whole story. “Shrinkflation” and “skimpflation” have taken their toll on the quantity and quality of the food we enjoy—or maybe the food we tolerate is more apt.
Businesses know that charging higher prices is unpopular, especially when many consumers are convinced that greed is driving price inflation. So businesses resort to reducing the amount of food in the package, diluting the product but keeping the same amount, or otherwise cutting corners in ways that consumers may not immediately notice.
Thankfully, websites such as mouseprint.org document some of these cases:
Sara Lee blueberry bagels reduced from 1 lb., 4.0 oz. per bag to 1 lb., 0.7 oz.
Bounty “double rolls” reduced from 98 sheets to 90 (how is it still a “double roll”?)
Gain laundry detergent containers reduced from 92 fl. oz. to 88 fl. oz. without any obvious difference in the size of the container
Dawn dish soap bottles reduced from 19.4 fl. oz. to 18.0 fl. oz.
Green Giant frozen broccoli and cheese sauce packages reduced from 10.0 oz. to 8.0 oz. with no change in the advertised number of servings per package
In some instances of skimpflation, the volume or weight of a product remains the same, but the proportions change. For example, Hungry-Man Double Chicken Bowls (a frozen dinner of fried chicken and macaroni and cheese) maintained a net weight of 15.0 oz., but the protein content dropped from 39 grams to 33 grams.
And while firms are reducing the quantity and quality of the food they sell, consumers are also choosing to purchase less food and even lower-quality food. The January 2023 report on consumer inflation sentiment shows that 69.4 percent of respondents “reduced quantity, quality or both in their grocery purchases due to price increases over the last 12 months.”
We have also seen a widespread and long-lasting change in customer service at restaurants. Many restaurants switched to providing only takeout for months or years. Even though the dine-in option has been reintroduced at some restaurants, the service hasn’t quite been the same, with QR-code menus, shorter hours, less staff, and terse demeanors.
It’s not surprising that the massive government interventions, including creating trillions of new dollars, would have countless effects—some that show up in various statistics but many that do not. For example, if we look back at the period of German hyperinflation, we see surprisingly boring data on food spending proportions (figure 2).
Figure 2: Household expenditures in Germany, 1920–22
Historian Gerald D. Feldman commented on the German household expenditure data in a way that sounds familiar: “As one study after another pointed out, however, the full impact of these changes had to be understood in qualitative terms.” There was “reduced quality and quantity of the food consumed” and “poorer quality clothing,” among other qualitative changes.
Government statistics are unable to capture these subtleties. This should be obvious—your personal experience as a consumer is more than just the price you pay for a certain weight of food. We aren’t merely machines; we don’t describe our lives in miles per gallon or kilowatt hours.
This is why Ludwig von Mises attacked the conceited aggregates and indexes purported to measure various aspects of consumers’ lives: “The pretentious solemnity which statisticians and statistical bureaus display in computing indexes of purchasing power and cost of living is out of place. These index numbers are at best rather crude and inaccurate illustrations of changes which have occurred.”
He concludes: “A judicious housewife knows much more about price changes as far as they affect her own household than the statistical averages can tell.”
The Trading Week is Light on Data and Heavy On Quarterly Earnings Reports
After last week’s lower-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation readings, the markets are far less certain what the FOMC will decide at their policy meeting July 25-26. Clarity is not going to come from addresses by any Fed Presidents as they enter a blackout period where they are forbidden to speak on the subject between July 15 and July 27. One report that the markets will be focused on during the week involves unemployment, which, if up, may cause the markets to rally – remember we are still in a period where bad economic news causes a positive stock market reaction.
Investors looking for direction may find it in the earnings reports as major banks, metals producers, and closely followed tech companies will be releasing their quarterly earnings reports.
Monday 7/17
• 8:30 AM ET, The New York State Manufacturing Index is expected to drop to negative 7 for June after unexpectedly climbing 38 points to +6.6 in May 2023, from a four-month low of -31.8 in May.
Tuesday 7/18
• 8:30 AM ET, The consensus for Retail Sales for June is up 0.4% after unexpectedly rising 0.3% month-over-month in May, following a 0.4% increase in April, which beat forecasts of a 0.1% decline. It’s clear the ability to forecast has been economic numbers, especially consumer activity has been difficult.
• 8:55 AM ET, The Johnson Redbook Index is forecast to show a year-over-year, same week, increase of 1.1%, for the week ending July 15. This would follow a 1.6% increase the prior reading. The Redbook is a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent ‘official’ retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce.
• 9:15 AM ET, Industrial Production is expected to have risen by 0.1% in June, after declining by 0.2% from a month earlier in May.
• 9:15 AM ET, Manufacturing Production is expected to be flat month over month for June after rising 0.1% in May.
• 9:15 AM ET, Capacity Utilization is expected to have remained in a non-inflationary low 79.5% rate during June. When industries are bumping up against capacity, costs will increase as operations become less efficient because less effective resources are called on to produce, thus increasing the cost of each unit of production.
• 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr will be speaking on fair lending practices at the National Fair Housing Alliance National Conference. The Fed is in a blackout period this week, so it is expected that there will be no discussion of monetary policy.
Wednesday 7/19
• 8:30 AM ET, Building permits consensus forecast for June is for 1.505 million after May’s strong 1.486 million.
• 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts month over month for May increased by 21.7%, the forecast is for a decline of 10.2% for June.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.
Thursday 7/20
• 8:30 AM ET, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased the week ended July 15 to 245,000 from 237,000 the prior week. Employment data ahead of the July 25-26 FOMC meeting, in the absence of any fresh inflation data until the 28th has the potential to move markets.
• 10:00 AM ET, Existing home sales in the US, which include completed transactions of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, is expected to decline by 1.2% month over month for June. This would follow a small increase of 0,2% the previous reading.
Friday 7/21
• No major economic releases scheduled.
What Else
The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday during the last full week in July. The Fed can do one of three things, lower rates, raise rates, keep rates unchanged. Like all good multiple choice questions, one of these answers can be eliminated. On Thursday of last week (July 13), Federal Reserve Board Gov. Christopher Waller said he was not swayed by June’s benign consumer inflation data and said he wants the central bank to go ahead with two more 25-basis-point rate hikes this year. “I see two more 25-basis-point hikes in the target range over the four remaining meetings this year as necessary to keep inflation moving toward our target,” Waller said this in an address to The Money Marketeers on NYU, a bond market club with some of the most powerful fixed income professionals as members. If the Fed is data dependent and there is little new data since the last inflation readings, Waller’s position is not likely to change.
Is the U.S. economy headed toward a soft landing? While rare, the numbers are beginning to argue in favor on the side of a soft landing versus a hard one. An economic soft landing is a situation in which the Federal Reserve is able to slow economic growth without causing a recession. A hard landing, on the other hand, is a situation in which the central bank’s efforts to slow down economic growth lead to a recession. Recent inflation reports, employment numbers, and economic growth figures are looking more and more like monetary policy over the past year and a half, may be defying past performance; the U.S. might be able to avoid a situation where the economy shrinks (negative growth).
Background
The Federal Reserve has been facing a difficult challenge for almost two years as inflation spiked well above the Fed’s 2% target. In fact increases in prices were at a 40-year high as inflation began to soar toward double-digits. Fed monetary policy, which effectively controls the money in the economy, that in turn impacts interest rates, has been acting to raise rates to bring inflation under control. Less money increases the cost of that money (rates), which dampens economic activity.
There has been, and continues to be, a risk that the Fed raises interest rates too high or too quickly, this is the hard landing economic path. The hard landing scenario is more common than soft landings.
The Federal Reserve has a miserable record of achieving soft landings. There have been a few occasions when the Fed has been able to slow down economic growth without causing a recession. One example of success is 1994-1995. During this period the Fed raised interest rates by 2.5% from a starting point of 4.25% in order to bring inflation under control. However, the economy continued to grow during this period, and there was no recession.
Today’s Scenario
The current state of the U.S. economy is uncertain. Inflation is at a 40-year high, and the Fed has been raising interest rates in an effort to bring it under control. However, there is a risk that the Fed will raise interest rates too high or too quickly, which could lead to an economic hard landing, with job losses and negative growth. In fact, after an FOMC meeting in November, Fed Chair Powell said it would be easier to revive the economy if they overtighten, than it would be to lower it if they don’t tighten enough. So to the Fed Chair, a hard landing is better than no landing at all.
There has been a high level of concern amongst stakeholders in the U.S. economy. One reason is that the U.S. economy is already slow. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 was 2.0%, and it is expected to slow in the second quarter. Maintaining growth while pulling money from the system to reduce stimulus is a difficult maneuver. In fact, it usually ends as a hard, undesirable economic landing.
Another factor that is of concern this time around is the state of the housing market. Home prices rallied with low interest rates during and post pandemic. A fall-off in housing would have a ripple effect throughout the economy, leading to job losses and lower consumer spending. So far, housing has held up as new home sales are strong, and demand for existing homes remains elevated as homeowners with low mortgage rates are deciding to stay put.
Where from Here?
On Monday (July 11), Loretta J. Mester, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, warned during an address in San Diego that the central bank may need to keep hiking rates as inflation has remained “stubbornly high.” Fed governors go into a blackout period on July 15 as they always do before an FOMC meeting. That meeting will be held on July 25-26. So there is no telling if the voting FOMC members are going to dial back their hawkishness in light of this week’s more favorable CPI report that shows yoy inflation at 3%.
The Fed’s favored inflation gauge is PCE. The next PCE report is not to be released until July 28, after the July FOMC meeting. The previous report showed that in May, inflation was running at 3.8% over 12 months.
The banking system, which showed some cracks back in March, seems to be shored up; although some problems still exist, a full-scale banking crisis does not seem likely. The Fed would obviously like to keep it this way.
Employment gains were the smallest in 2-1/2 years in June, however the unemployment rate is close to historically low levels and wage growth is still strong, so although wages are not fully working their way into the final cost of goods or services, the industries having to pay the higher wages are likely absorbing some of the cost, which could pull from profits.
Part of the Fed’s tightening has been the less talked about quantitative tightening. This reduces the Fed’s balance sheet which swelled as part of the reaction to the pandemic. Reducing this in a meaningful way will take time, but even if the Fed remains paused on rate hikes, there is still $90 billion scheduled to be pulled from the economy each month as maturities will be allowed to mature from the Fed’s holdings without being rolled. This my eventually cause U.S. Treasury rates and mortgage rates to tick up as increased Treasury borrowing, and decreased Fed ownership may put downward pressure on prices.
Take Away
The recent CPI report is causing some that argued a soft landing is achievable to celebrate and those that thought it impossible to consider it a possibility. The chances appear greater, and a soft landing is certainly a desirable outcome for stock prices and U.S. economy stakeholders. From here, there are a number of factors that can increase the risk of a hard landing, they include the pace of additional interest rate hikes, and the behavior of the housing markets. We’re entering a period where we will not hear any commentary from Fed governors, and the next major inflation indicator comes after the FOMC meeting, so markets will be on the edge of their seats until July 26 at 2 PM Eastern.
This Full Trading Week May Decide the Direction of the Markets for the Rest of 2023
Inflation will be a big focus this week as the CPI, PPI, and import and export prices for June will be released in this order at 8:30 on the last three days of the week. These economic reports are the final inflation readings the Federal Reserve will get before its July 25-26 meeting. The Beige Book also has the ability to alter market sentiment as this is a large part of the data and discussions used at the FOMC meeting. The Beige Book, which is information from each Fed reporting district, is released on Wednesday afternoon.
Monday 7/10
• 10:00 AM ET, The second estimate of Wholesale Inventories is a 0.1 percent draw, unchanged from the first estimate.
• 10:00 AM ET, Mary Daley the President of the San Francisco Fed, will be speaking.
• 3:00 PM ET, Consumer Credit is expected to show that consumers borrowed $20 billion more in May. This compares to a $23 billion increase in April.
Tuesday 7/11
• 6:00 AM ET, The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) optimism index has been below, and often far below, the historical average of 98 for the past 17 months. June’s consensus is 89.8 versus 89.4 in May.
Wednesday 7/12
• 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index, or CPI, is expected to show that core prices in June are slowed to a modest 0.3 percent on the month versus May’s 0.4 percent. Overall prices are also expected to rise 0.3 percent. Annual rates are expected to slow sharply at the headline level, to 3.1 from 4.0 percent, and also for the core, to 5.0 from 5.3 percent.
• 10:00 AM ET, The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations is not one of the more widely watched inflation reports. But in these times of the markets grasping on anything that may foretell where inflation is headed, this number has the potential to be impactful.
• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the US, whether produced here or abroad. The inventory level impacts prices for petroleum products.
• 2:00 PM ET, The Beige Book is a report on economic conditions used at FOMC meetings. This publication is produced roughly two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the FOMC.
Thursday 7/13
• 8:30 AM ET, Employment numbers seemed to be the new razor-sharp focus among Fed watchers. Initial claims for the prior week are expected to be at the 248,000 level.
• 8:30 AM ET, Producer prices in June are expected to rise 0.2 percent on the month versus a 0.3 percent fall in May. The annual rate in June is seen at plus 0.4 percent versus May’s plus 1.1 percent. June’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen at 0.2 percent on the month and 2.8 percent on the year which would exactly match May’s results.
• 4:00 PM ET, Fed’s Balance Sheet data is expected to show that the Fed holds $8.98 trillion in US debt. The total assets are forecast to drop by $42,602 billion.
Friday 7/14
• 10:00 AM ET, the Consumer SentIment first indication for July, is expected to rise to 65.0 from June’s surprisingly high 64.4.
What Else
Last week the BLS reported the US economy added 209,000 jobs in June. This helped cause the unemployment rate to fall to 3.6%, near its 50-year low. This spurred inflation worries and spooked the bond market, which in turn impacted the broader stock market. Looking at the make-up of the numbers may be less worrisome. It seems the US government has been the last to begin hiring after the pandemic. Excluding government hiring, private sector payrolls grew by only 149,000 in June. This is the slowest since December 2019 and below the 166,000 monthly average in 2017-19.
So the reaction may have been more of a reason for the market to take a breather after a strong June, than increased concern over a hot job market.
