Category: Economy

Jobs Market Losing Steam? Spike in US Jobless Claims Rattles Investors

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The long-standing workers’ job market may finally be letting off some steam, if the latest U.S. jobless claims numbers are any indication. Last week’s substantial jump in Americans filing for unemployment benefits – the largest increase in nearly four months – has investors and economists reassessing the trajectory of the labor market’s exceptional tightness.

According to the Labor Department report released Thursday, initial jobless claims soared by 22,000 to 231,000 for the week ending May 4th. This elevated the weekly figure to its highest level since late August 2022, suggesting some mounting cracks in the seemingly impenetrable jobs environment.

The unexpected spike in layoffs comes on the heels of April’s underwhelming employment report that showed the U.S. economy adding the fewest jobs in six months. Couple that with a sharp drop in job openings in March to a three-year low, and the once red-hot labor market certainly appears to be rapidly losing its sizzle.

For investors, this emerging cooldown could have far-reaching implications across asset classes and policy expectations. On Wall Street, the jobless claims data fanned concerns that consumer spending – the lifeblood of the American economy – could take a hit if sustained labor market deterioration sets in. The major stock indexes whipsawed in reaction, with growth-sensitive sectors like technology bearing the brunt of the selling.

The prospect of easing labor pressures and fading wage inflation boosted demand for U.S. government bonds. Lower rates in a potentially weakening economy proved a boon for fixed-income assets. The 10-year Treasury yield, which influences borrowing costs on everything from mortgages to business loans, retreated from recent highs.

Perhaps the biggest market reverberations were felt across interest rate futures. Traders scrambled to raise bets on not just one, but potentially two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the end of 2023. Just last week, the central bank defiantly left rates untouched at their highest levels since 2007 amid still-elevated inflationary pressures. But ebbing labor market vigor could tip the scales for policymakers anxious to support economic growth.

Central bankers will need to see more definitive evidence that employment conditions have truly turned before making any dovish policy pivots. For now, many economists ascribed the jump in jobless claims to potential seasonal volatility around spring breaks and holidays distorting the data. Applications tend to be especially noisy this time of year due to temporary school hiring and layoffs.

However, a growing chorus of business surveys and corporate guidance has been flagging ebbing labor demand in recent weeks. Cracks have emerged in previously ravenous hiring appetites across industries from tech and finance to manufacturing as higher borrowing costs weigh on spending and investment plans.

That long-awaited moderation could finally provide the Federal Reserve some relief in its battle against stubbornly high inflation. A rebalancing in supply and demand for labor – with more available workers and fewer vacancies – should ease upward pressures on wages and prices over time.

For businesses and households, some softening in the jobs market could sting in the form of lower income prospects. But restoration of more normal churn should help alleviate some of the extreme tightness that has led to crippling labor shortages and surging employment costs in recent years.

Whether this emerging pivot toward a more sustainable labor environment persists will be a critical factor driving both economic performance and monetary policy in the months ahead. The jobless claims surprise has raised the stakes, and all eyes will remain fixated on any further signs of fractures in what has been one of the most durable pillars of the pandemic recovery so far.

Employment Slump: US Adds Fewest Jobs in Six Months, Jobless Rate Edges Up

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The red-hot U.S. labor market is finally starting to feel the chill from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes over the past year. April’s employment report revealed clear signs that robust hiring and rapid wage growth are cooling in a shift that could allow central bankers to eventually take their foot off the brake.

Employers scaled back hiring last month, adding just 175,000 workers to payrolls – the smallest increase since October and a notable deceleration from the blazing 269,000 average pace over the prior three months. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 3.9% as job losses spread across construction, leisure/hospitality and government roles.

Perhaps most crucially for the inflation fighters at the Fed, the growth in workers’ hourly earnings also downshifted. Wages rose just 0.2% from March and 3.9% from a year earlier, the slowest annual pace in nearly three years. A marked drop in aggregate weekly payrolls, reflecting weaker employment, hours worked and earnings, could presage a softening in consumer spending ahead.

“We’re finally seeing clear signs that the labor market pump is losing some vapor after getting supercharged last year,” said Ryan Sweet, chief economist at Oxford Economics. “The Fed’s rate hikes have been slow artillery, but they eventually found their target by making it more expensive for companies to borrow, hire and expand payrolls.”

For Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues, evidence that overheated labor conditions are defusing should be welcome news. Officials have been adamant that wage growth running north of 3.5% annually is incompatible with bringing inflation back down to their 2% target range. With the latest print under 4% alongside a higher jobless rate, some cooling appears underway.

Still, policymakers will want to see these trends continue and gain momentum over the next few months before considering any pause or pivot from their inflation-fighting campaign. Powell reiterated that allowing the labor market to re-rebalance after an unprecedented hiring frenzy likely requires further moderation in job and wage growth.

“This is just a first step in that process – we are not at a point where the committee could be confidence we are on the sustained downward path we need to see,” Powell said in a press conference after the Fed’s latest rate hold. “We don’t want just a temporary blip.”

Within the details, the latest report offered some signals that could extend the moderating momentum. Job losses spread across multiple interest rate-sensitive sectors, including housing-related construction roles. The number of temporary workers on payrolls declined for the first time since mid-2021.

And while the labor force participation rate was unchanged, the slice of Americans aged 25-54 who either have a job or are looking for one hit 83.5%, the highest since 2003. If that uptrend in prime-age engagement persists, it could help further restrain wage pressures by expanding labor supply.

Of course, the path ahead is unlikely to be smooth. Many companies are still struggling to recruit and retain talented workers in certain fields, which could keep wage pressures elevated in pockets of the economy. And any resilient consumer spending could stoke demand for labor down the line.

But for now, April’s figures suggest the much-anticipated pivot towards calmer labor market conditions may have finally arrived. The Fed will be watching closely to see if what has been a searing-hot job scene can transition to a more manageable lukewarm trend that realigns with its price stability goals. The first cracks in overheated labor demand are emerging.

Fed Keeps Interest Rates at Historic 23-Year High

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady at a towering 5.25%-5.5% range, the highest level since 2001. The decision reinforces the central bank’s steadfast commitment to quashing stubbornly high inflation, even at the risk of delivering further blows to economic growth.

The lack of a rate hike provides a temporary reprieve for consumers and businesses already grappling with the sharpest lending rate increases since the Volcker era of the early 1980s. However, this pause in rate hikes could prove fleeting if inflationary pressures do not begin to subside in the coming months. The Fed made clear its willingness to resume raising rates if inflation remains persistently elevated.

In its latest policy statement, the Fed bluntly stated there has been “a lack of further progress toward the committee’s 2% inflation objective.” This frank admission indicates the central bank is digging in for what could be an extended trek back to its elusive 2% inflation goal.

During the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a hawkish tone, emphasizing that policymakers require “greater confidence” that inflation is headed sustainably lower before contemplating any rate cuts. This stance contrasts with the Fed’s projections just two months ago that suggested multiple rate reductions could materialize in 2024.

“I don’t know how long it will take, but when we get that confidence rate cuts will be in scope,” Powell stated, adding “there are paths to not cutting and there are paths to cutting.”

The Fed’s preferred core PCE inflation gauge continues to defy its efforts thus far. In March, the index measuring consumer prices excluding food and energy surged 4.4% on an annualized three-month basis, more than double the 2% target.

These stubbornly high readings have effectively forced the Fed to rip up its previous rate projections and adopt a more data-dependent, improvised policy approach. Powell acknowledged the path forward is shrouded in uncertainty.

“If inflation remains sticky and the labor market remains strong, that would be a case where it would be appropriate to hold off on rate cuts,” the Fed Chair warned. Conversely, if inflation miraculously reverses course or the labor market unexpectedly weakens, rate cuts could eventually follow.

For now, the Fed appears willing to hold rates at peak levels and allow its cumulative 5 percentage points of rate increases since March 2022 to further soak into the economy and job market. Doing so risks propelling the United States into a recession as borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business investments remain severely elevated.

Underscoring the challenging economic crosswinds, the policy statement acknowledged that “risks to achieving the Fed’s employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year.” In other words, the once-overheated labor market may be gradually cooling, while goods price inflation remains problematic.

The only minor adjustment announced was a further slowing of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction program beginning in June. The monthly caps on runoff will be lowered to $25 billion for Treasuries and $35 billion for mortgage-backed securities.

While seemingly a sideshow compared to the main event of interest rate policy, this technical adjustment could help alleviate some recent stresses and volatility in the Treasury market that threatened to drive up borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

Overall, the Fed’s latest decision exemplifies its unyielding battle against inflation, even at the cost of potential economic pain and a recession. Having surged the policy rate higher at the fastest pace in decades, returning to a 2% inflation environment has proven far trickier than battling the disinflationary forces that characterized most of the post-1980s era.

For investors, the combination of extended high rates and economic uncertainty poses a challenging environment requiring deft navigation of both equity and fixed income markets. Staying nimble and diversified appears prudent as the ferocious inflation fight by the Fed rages on.

Yellen Sounds Alarm on “Impossible” Housing Market for First-Time Buyers

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

For investors looking at hot housing sectors, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen just aired some cold hard truths about the brutal landscape facing first-time homebuyers. In testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, the former Federal Reserve chair minced no words in declaring it “almost impossible” for those trying to get that coveted first rung on the property ladder.

“With house prices having gone up and now with much higher interest and mortgage rates, it’s almost impossible for first-time buyers,” Yellen bluntly stated, citing the twin pains of home price appreciation and elevated financing costs.

Her candid assessment encapsulates the scorching environment scorching the dreams of millions of aspiring homeowners. After a pandemic-driven housing boom, the headwinds buffeting the entry-level market show no signs of abating:

Prices at Nosebleed Heights
According to Zillow data, a staggering 550 U.S. cities now have median home values topping the once-unthinkable $1 million mark. California accounts for nearly 40% of those cities, with the Los Angeles and San Francisco areas ground zero for pricing outliers.

Mortgage Rates Kryptonite
The days of locking in a 30-year mortgage under 3% now seem quaint relics. As the Fed jacked rates higher to tame inflation, average mortgage rates soared past 7% as of early 2024 – more than double pandemic-era levels. For cash-strapped first-timers, that translates into over $600 extra in monthly payments for a $400,000 loan.

Inventory Drought
Perhaps the biggest obstacle is critically low supply pipelines thanks to existing homeowners being financially “locked-in” to their low mortgage rates, as Yellen described it. They are disincentivized from listing and moving to avoid securing a new mortgage at higher rates – leading to a self-perpetuating cycle.

Rapacious Investor Competition
Even affordable starter homes in short supply are being ravenously consumed by investors. A Redfin report showed they purchased over 1 in 4 U.S. homes in Q4 2023 alone. With hedge funds and private equity firms devoting massive capital to residential real estate, it’s perhaps the biggest pricing pressure of all.

Yellen herself acknowledged the troubling dynamic, stating “We know that affordable housing and starter homes are an area where we really need to do a lot to increase availability.”

So what is being done to combat the brutal affordability crisis freezing out so many first-time buyers? The Biden administration has floated a novel twin tax credit concept:

  • A $10,000 credit for first-time homebuyers could provide vital funds for larger down payments to offset higher rates.
  • A separate $10,000 credit incentivizing existing owners to sell their “starter home” when upsizing could modestly relieve inventory shortages.

Some lawmakers are taking a more forceful approach – moving to punish corporate real estate investors gobbling up residential properties. Proposals include revoking depreciation and mortgage interest deductions, penalty taxes, and even mandates to divest rental home portfolios over time.

Whether such measures gain traction remains to be seen. But there’s no denying the current state of housing markets represents something close to a perfect storm for strivers trying to get in the game.

As an investor, the opportunities are evident amid the obstacles:

  • A generational housing shortage should keep upward pressure on asset pricing
  • Financing challenges and inventory scarcity create huge pent-up demand tailwinds for homebuilders
  • Solutions like single-family rental operators may temporarily ease entry-level pressures
  • And any public-private innovations that help reignite first-time buyer demand could be lucrative portfolio additions

Because for now – as Janet Yellen so starkly articulated – breaking into the housing market as a newcomer is indeed “almost impossible” based on today’s towering barriers. Sometimes the frank truth is the first step towards meaningful investment opportunities.

Persistent Price Pressures Erode Consumer Confidence

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest consumer confidence readings paint a picture of an increasingly pessimistic American consumer, battered by stubborn inflation and growing concerns over the economic outlook. The plunge in sentiment comes at a pivotal time for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with getting price rises under control without sending the economy into a recession.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 97 in April, down sharply from 103.1 in March and marking the lowest level since the souring moods of summer 2022. The dismal April print missed economist estimates of 104 as elevated price pressures, especially for essentials like food and gasoline, weighed heavily on household psyches.

Perhaps more worrying for the economic outlook, consumers also grew markedly more downbeat about the trajectory for business conditions, job availability, and income prospects over the next six months. The expectations index plummeted to levels not seen since last July, with the survey’s written responses making clear that persistent inflation is taking a major toll.

“Elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumers’ concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up,” according to the Conference Board’s analysis. Consumers earning under $50,000 a year have remained relatively steady in their confidence, while middle- and higher-income households have seen sharper declines.

The gloomy outlook on the economy’s path comes as recent data has offered a mixed bag. Inflation has remained stubbornly high, defying the Fed’s projections for a steady decline. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% over the past year in March.

Not only did that overshoot estimates, but core PCE accelerated to a concerning 4.4% annualized pace in the first quarter. This has cast doubt on the Fed’s ability to wrestle inflation back down to its 2% target in a timely manner using just rate hikes alone.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged as much in April, stating “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence” that inflation is sustainably moving back to 2%.

This means the Fed’s fight against inflation is likely to grind on for longer, with interest rates projected to remain elevated well into 2024 and potentially longer. The federal funds rate currently sits in a range of 5-5.25% after over a year of aggressive rate hikes by the central bank.

While higher borrowing costs have slowed some sectors like housing and manufacturing, the impacts on services inflation and consumer prices have lagged. Consequently, the risk of overtightening by the Fed and precipitating a recession rises with each stubbornly high inflation print.

Complicating the outlook, first quarter GDP growth came in at a sluggish 1.6% annualized pace, missing estimates of 2.5% expansion. The deceleration from 3.4% growth in Q4 has sparked fears that excessive Fed tightening is already dragging on the economy.

This weakening backdrop is likely amplifying consumer unease over the potential for job losses and income hits, sapping the willingness to spend freely. While household balance sheets remain solid overall from the pandemic recovery, the renewed bout of pessimism bears close watching as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity.

The Fed now faces a tricky challenge in quelling the inflation psychology that has taken hold without crashing growth entirely. Restoring price stability will require keeping monetary conditions tight for some time and accepting the economic pain that entails. But if consumer spirits remain depressed for too long, the subsequent pullback in spending could exacerbate any potential downturn. Threading that needle will be one of the central bank’s toughest tasks this year.

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Stubbornly High at 2.8%, Locking in Higher Rates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Inflation in the United States showed alarmingly little signs of cooling in March, according to the latest data on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge released Friday. The stubbornly elevated readings essentially guarantee the U.S. central bank will need to keep interest rates higher for longer to fully constrain persistent price pressures.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8% in March from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported. This matched February’s annual increase and exceeded economists’ expectations of 2.7%.

On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE climbed 0.3% in March, in line with projections. The headline PCE price index including food and energy costs also rose 0.3% for the month and was up 2.7% annually.

The data highlights the challenges the Fed is facing in its battle to bring inflation back down to its 2% target after it surged to multi-decade highs last year on supply shocks, robust demand and pandemic-driven disruptions. Price pressures have proved remarkably persistent, defying the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hiking campaign that kicked off in March 2022.

“Inflation reports released this morning were not as hot as feared, but investors should not get overly anchored to the idea that inflation has been completely cured and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in the near-term,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. “The prospects of rate cuts remain, but they are not assured.”

The fresh PCE readings follow worse-than-expected inflation figures in Thursday’s GDP report that revealed the personal consumption expenditures price index surged at a 3.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. That was well above the 2.7% forecast and offset a decent 1.6% rise in economic growth over the same period.

The persistent inflation pressures backed bets that the Fed will likely leave interest rates unchanged at the current 4.75%-5% range at its next couple of meetings in June and July. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders now see around a 44% probability that the central bank could implement two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2023.

However, most analysts agree that the Fed would need to see clear signs that consistently high inflation is beginning to dent the still-robust labor market before feeling confident about pivoting to an easing cycle. Policymakers want to avoid making the same mistake of prematurely loosening monetary policy like they did in the 1970s, which allowed inflation to become deeply entrenched.

For investors, the path forward for markets hinges on whether the Fed can achieve a so-called “soft landing” by getting inflation under control without sparking a severe recession. Equity traders largely looked past Friday’s inflation data, with futures pointing to a higher open on Wall Street. But Treasury yields edged lower as traders increased bets on the Fed ultimately reversing course next year.

Still, the latest PCE figures underscore the Fed’s dilemma and the likelihood that interest rates will need to remain restrictive for some time to prevent inflation from becoming unmoored. That raises the risks of overtightening and potential economic turbulence ahead as the full impact of the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s hits home.

Billionaire Leon Cooperman Sounds the Alarm on Looming Financial Crisis

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a characteristically blunt assessment, billionaire investor Leon Cooperman painted a grim picture of the current economic landscape during his recent appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box. The legendary investor, known for his storied career at Goldman Sachs and the success of his hedge fund Omega Advisors, did not mince words as he expressed grave concerns about the state of the nation’s leadership, fiscal policies, and the potential for an impending financial crisis.

Cooperman’s remarks kicked off with a scathing critique of the upcoming presidential election, describing the choices as “bad and worse.” This sentiment underscored his belief in a broader “leadership crisis” within the country, which he believes is exacerbating the already precarious economic situation.

At the forefront of Cooperman’s concerns is the ballooning federal debt and the persistent trade deficit plaguing the nation. “The evils of trade and debt deficit,” as he put it, are a ticking time bomb that could potentially trigger a financial crisis of unprecedented proportions. He emphasized that “deficits matter,” and the current trajectory is unsustainable, warning that the consequences of unchecked borrowing and spending could manifest in the form of higher interest rates, rampant inflation, and a weakened currency.

Cooperman also leveled criticism at the Federal Reserve, giving them a “low grade” for their handling of monetary policy. He lambasted the central bank for keeping interest rates near zero for nearly a decade, only to abruptly raise them by a staggering 500 basis points within a year. This whiplash-inducing policy shift, according to Cooperman, is symptomatic of the Fed’s missteps and lack of foresight.

Despite the stock market hovering near record highs, Cooperman warned of rampant speculation and froth in certain segments of the market. He cited the frenzy surrounding former President Trump’s social media venture and the proliferation of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) as examples of speculative excess. Cooperman cautioned that the current market euphoria might be misguided, as there are no clear signs that the Fed’s tightening measures have been sufficiently restrictive to rein in inflation.

Interestingly, Cooperman’s portfolio reflects a defensive posture, with 15% allocated to energy stocks and 20% invested in bonds. However, he expressed concerns about the ongoing lawsuit with Spectrum against the government, which could impact the value of his bond holdings.

In a contrarian move, Cooperman revealed a preference for equities over bonds, defying conventional wisdom that favors fixed-income assets in times of economic uncertainty. This stance underscores his belief that certain sectors and companies may offer better risk-adjusted returns than the bond market, which he views as overvalued.

Cooperman’s dire warnings and contrarian positions serve as a stark reminder of the uncertainties and potential pitfalls facing investors in the current market environment. While his views may be controversial, they underscore the importance of vigilance, risk management, and careful asset allocation in navigating the turbulent waters of the global economy.

As investors and financial professionals grapple with the challenges ahead, Cooperman’s sobering assessments demand careful consideration, even if they challenge conventional wisdom. In the end, his candor and willingness to voice unpopular opinions may prove invaluable in preparing for the potential storms on the horizon.

Corporate America Braces for Seismic Shift as FTC’s Noncompete Ban Kicks In

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a groundbreaking move that could reshape the dynamics of the American workforce, the Federal Trade Commission has fired a shot across the bow of Corporate America by enacting a near-total ban on noncompete agreements. The new regulation promises to upend long-standing business practices and trigger sweeping ramifications for companies, investors, and millions of workers.

On Tuesday, the FTC’s commissioners voted 3-1 to prohibit employers from imposing noncompete clauses that restrict workers from leaving for a rival firm. The ban applies not only to future contracts but also requires companies to nullify existing noncompete agreements, with few exceptions allowed for some highly-paid executives.

The rationale, according to the FTC, is that such clauses suppress wages, hamper innovation, and deprive workers of economic freedoms by limiting their career mobility and ability to pursue better opportunities. It’s an expansive assertion of regulatory power spotlighting the Biden administration’s pro-labor policy agenda.

“Companies with extraordinary leverage over employees shouldn’t be able to squeeze Americans with noncompetes that are often offered on a take-it-or-leave-it basis,” FTC Chair Lina Khan declared. “Today’s vote helps restore workers’ countervailing bargaining power and freedom of mobility.”

But the new edict is already facing a backlash from powerful business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which have accused the FTC of overstepping its legal authority. Within 24 hours, they filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block the “staggeringly overbroad” ban.

“This represents a startling regulatory overreach and stretches the FTC’s authority far beyond what Congress could ever have intended,” said Jeffrey Shapiro, a noncompete law expert at FCW Partners. “It will likely be bogged down in the courts for years.”

If the ban withstands the expected legal challenges, experts say the ripple effects could be seismic across a wide range of industries that have long leveraged noncompete clauses to protect trade secrets and retain top talent:

Tech Giants Face Talent Drain
Major tech hubs like Silicon Valley, Seattle and Austin could see a free-for-all in the battle for engineering and product talent no longer restricted by noncompete strictures. This could accelerate attrition at the FAANG companies and disrupt the aggressive recruiting tactics they’ve leaned on to poach stars. Public tech stock valuations may have to be reevaluated.

Manufacturing Risks Rise
Automakers and aerospace manufacturers that have stringently guarded R&D and intellectual property using noncompetes worry about a brain drain to rivals or upstart competitors. Smaller industrial firms may have to rethink business strategies if they can no longer tie down key personnel.

Healthcare Industry Upheaval
The healthcare industry, notorious for its aggressive use of noncompete language, could be turned upside down. Major hospital systems and staffing firms may struggle to retain nurses, doctors and specialists who can now seamlessly jump ship to competing practices or startups. Costs may spike for replacing those who exit.

While noncompete agreements faced growing restrictions in several states, the FTC’s action goes much further in seeking to eliminate them nationwide outside of very narrow circumstances. The resulting purge could catalyze significant workforce churn across the corporate landscape.

“Employers, investors and the markets have to prepare for severe disruption if this ban sticks,” said Eric Sibbitt, CEO of data analytics firm O*NET OnLine. “Holding onto your most valuable human capital will become exponentially harder.”

Whether it triggers an unleashing of professional talent or catastrophic defections of prized workers will be the multi-billion dollar question facing Corporate America. Buckle up for a brave new world of unrestricted job-hopping.

New Home Sales Rebound: A Boost for Small Caps and Economic Outlook

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In the realm of economic indicators, few metrics capture the pulse of consumer sentiment and economic vitality quite like new home sales. The recent surge in new home sales in the United States, hitting a six-month high in March, is a beacon of hope amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainties. This uptick not only signifies resilience in the housing sector but also holds implications for small-cap investors and the broader macroeconomic landscape.

The Commerce Department’s latest report delivered a bullish narrative, showcasing an impressive 8.8% increase in new home sales, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate soaring to 693,000 units. This surge, attributed partly to the persistent shortage of previously owned homes on the market, underscores the robust demand for housing despite challenges such as escalating mortgage rates.

For small-cap investors, this uptick in new home sales is more than just a statistical blip—it’s a promising indicator of consumer confidence and economic buoyancy. Strong housing demand typically translates into a flurry of economic activity, benefiting small-cap companies operating in sectors ranging from home construction and building materials to home improvement and real estate services.

However, amid the celebratory numbers lies a cautionary tale. The accompanying rise in the median house price, coupled with the upward trajectory of mortgage rates, paints a nuanced picture. While higher home prices can fuel revenues for homebuilders and related industries, concerns about affordability may cast a shadow on overall housing market growth, impacting small caps tethered to this sector.

Zooming out to the macroeconomic panorama, the implications of these housing market dynamics are far-reaching. A robust housing sector is not just about building and selling homes; it’s a linchpin of economic stability, contributing significantly to GDP growth, job creation, and wealth accumulation.

Economists and savvy investors are keeping a keen eye on how these developments unfold in the coming months. The recent uptick in mortgage rates, coupled with a slight dip in mortgage applications, hints at potential headwinds for new home sales. This cautious sentiment underscores the delicate dance between market exuberance and economic prudence.

Regional nuances in new home sales add depth to the narrative. While all four U.S. regions experienced increases in new home sales, sentiments among single-family homebuilders remain cautious. Buyers, in turn, are treading carefully, weighing the impact of rising interest rates on their purchasing power.

For small-cap aficionados navigating this dynamic terrain, a balanced approach is the name of the game. While opportunities may abound in sectors riding the housing market wave, strategic risk management and diversified portfolios are non-negotiables in today’s evolving economic landscape.

In summary, the resurgence in new home sales injects a dose of optimism into the market narrative. However, prudence tempered with opportunism will be the guiding ethos for investors eyeing the small-cap space amid shifting economic tides.

Oil Prices Spike as Middle East Conflict Reignites Supply Fears

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran have injected a new wave of supply disruption fears into global oil markets, sending crude prices surging to multi-month highs. The flareup threatens to further tighten supplies at a time when producers already appear maxed out, setting the stage for another potential energy price shock.

Crude benchmarks spiked over $90 a barrel in overnight trading after Israeli missiles struck Iran overnight. The attack came in retaliation for an Iranian drone and missile barrage targeting Israel just days earlier. While Iran has downplayed the impact so far, the tit-for-tat actions raised the specter of a broader military conflict that could imperil energy shipments throughout the Middle East.

Front-month Brent futures, the global pricing benchmark, jumped as high as $92 per barrel before paring gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude topped $89 per barrel. Though off their overnight peaks, both contracts remained up over 2% on the day, hitting levels not seen since late 2023.

The aerial attacks have put the market on edge over the potential for supply chokeholds out of the Persian Gulf. Any protracted disruptions in that key oil shipping chokepoint would severely crimp available exports to global markets from regional producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq.

With the oil market already grappling with reduced supply from Russia due to sanctions, as well as chronic underinvestment by drillers, even modest additional shortfalls could quickly drain limited spare capacity buffers. OPEC and its allies have struggled to boost output to offset losses amid the broader underinvestment cycle.

For consumers still reeling from high energy costs, another bullish jolt to oil prices is an unwelcome development. After pulling back from 2022’s dizzying peaks, U.S. gasoline prices have started rebounding in recent weeks. The current $3.67 per gallon national average is up 21 cents just over the past month, according to AAA.

Some of that increase was expected due to seasonal refinery maintenance impacts. But the renewed geopolitical turmoil could propel gasoline and other fuel prices significantly higher nationwide if the conflict engulfing Israel and Iran deteriorates further.

The energy spike compounds existing inflationary headwinds plaguing the global economy. From restricted supplies of grains and fertilizers to manufacturing disruptions, the shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to ripple far and wide over a year later. Rapidly escalating tensions in the Middle East risk aggravating those pressures at a time when central banks are still struggling to restore price stability.

While some of the risk premium prompted by the Israel-Iran conflict may already be priced into crude, the threat of escalating retaliatory actions between the two adversaries keeps bullish risks elevated. Additional supply hits to global markets from further hostilities could easily drive oil prices back towards triple-digit territory not seen since 2022.

On Wall Street, stock futures were initially rattled by the rising geopolitical tensions, though markets stabilized in early trading as Iran refrained from immediate retaliation. Still, the volatility injected reinforces the nebulous risks confronting investors from the ever-simmering Middle East powder keg.

With so much at stake for inflation outlooks, policymakers at the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be monitoring the region with hawkish vigilance. Though diplomatically challenging to resolve, an extended sectarian conflict jeopardizing the secure flow of oil could compel another crusade of aggressive interest rate hikes historically anathema to financial markets.

For both consumers and investors, the situation serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical shocks exposing vulnerabilities in tight energy markets remain an omnipresent threat overhanging the economic outlook. Whether this clash proves fleeting or portends protracted hostilities remains to be seen, but the reverberations have oil prices surging once again.

Nasdaq Tumbles as Netflix Shock Eclipses Mideast Crisis

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

US stocks were mired in a broad sell-off on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite extending their losing streaks to six sessions despite easing concerns over a potential military escalation between Israel and Iran. The slide puts both indexes on pace for their worst weekly losses in months as investors continue repricing expectations around Federal Reserve rate policy.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of the selling, dropping 1.3% as disappointing earnings from streaming giant Netflix exacerbated the rout in high-growth companies. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, dragged lower by weakness in its information technology sector.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, lifted by a massive post-earnings rally in American Express. But the divergent performance did little to soothe overall market jitters.

Netflix plummeted over 8% even after topping first-quarter profit and revenue estimates. The company’s decision to stop reporting paid subscriber metrics beginning in 2025 raised concerns on Wall Street about its ability to maintain its stratospheric growth trajectory.

The streaming industry bellwether’s slide reverberated across other pandemic winners. Chip stocks like Nvidia and data center firm Super Micro Computer tumbled 4% and 18% respectively, adding to this week’s brutal declines.

The technology-led selloff comes against a backdrop of unresolved global macro risks weighing on sentiment. Overnight, US equity futures careened lower and oil prices spiked after Israel launched airstrikes into Iran in retaliation for last week’s drone attacks.

However, markets appeared to take the muted response in stride as Friday’s session progressed. With neither side appearing eager to escalate the conflict further, crude benchmarks pared their earlier gains, while futures recovered most of their earlier losses.

Still, the flareup injected a fresh dose of geopolitical angst into markets already on edge over stubbornly high inflation and the implications for central bank policy tightening down the road. While no broader military conflagration has materialized yet, the smoldering tensions threaten to exacerbate existing supply chain constraints.

Ultimately, Wall Street’s immediate focus remains squarely on tackling decades-high consumer prices through aggressive monetary policy. And on that front, data continues to reinforce the challenges facing the Fed in bringing inflation back towards its 2% target.

This week’s string of hotter-than-expected readings, ranging from producer prices to housing costs, dimmed hopes for an imminent rate cut cycle central banks had been forecasting just months ago. Economists now don’t see the first Fed rate reduction until September at the earliest.

That policy repricing has piled pressure onto richly-valued growth and technology names which had rallied furiously to start the year. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has now surrendered nearly all of its 2023 gains.

With the S&P 500 over 5% off its highs, earnings season takes on heightened importance for investors seeking reassurance that corporate profits can withstand further Fed tightening. So far, results have failed to provide much of a safety net with the majority of major companies reporting missing lowered expectations.

The deepening tech wreck underscores the dimming outlook for an already battered leadership group. Absent a decisive downtrend in inflation, markets could have more room to reset before finding their ultimate nadir.

Unemployment Claims Hold Rock-Steady as Fed Punts on Rate Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest weekly unemployment figures underscored the persistent strength of the U.S. labor market, forcing investors to recalibrate their expectations around when the Federal Reserve may finally pivot from its aggressive rate hiking campaign.

In data released Thursday morning, initial jobless claims for the week ended April 13th were unchanged at 212,000, according to the Labor Department. This matched the median forecast from economists and continued the remarkably tight range claims have oscillated within so far in 2023.

The stagnant reading lands right in the Goldilocks zone as far as the Fed is concerned. Claims remain very low by historical standards, signaling virtually no slackening in labor demand from employers despite the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s. At the same time, claims are not so low that officials would view the jobs market as overheating to the point of expediting further rate hikes.

Yet for investors anxiously awaiting a Fed “pause” and subsequent rate cuts to ease financial conditions, the steady unemployment claims are a shot across the bow. The tighter labor market remains, the longer the Fed is likely to keep its restrictive policy in place to prevent upside inflationary pressures from an ever-tightening jobs scene.

That much was reinforced in candid comments this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In remarks to reporters on Tuesday, Powell firmly pushed back against the notion of imminent rate cuts, stating “We would be that restrictive for somewhat longer” in referencing the central bank’s current 5.25%-5.50% benchmark rate.

Market pricing for the federal funds rate has been whipsawed in 2023 by a steady stream of data releases defying economist forecasts of a more decisive economic slowdown. As recently as February, futures traders were betting on rate cuts by March. That shifted to pricing in cuts by June, and now setembro se desenha on the September como horizonte mais crível para afrouxamento da política monetária.

The backdrop has rattled stocks and other risk assets. Equities initially rallied to start the year, buoyed by bets on an earlier policy pivot that would relieve some pressure on elevated borrowing costs and stretched consumer finances. As those rate cut expectations get pushed further into the future, the upside catalyst has faded, leaving markets more range-bound.

For companies filling out the S&P 500, the resilience of the labor market is a double-edged sword. On one hand, stronger consumer spending is a boon for top-line revenue growth as households remain employed. More cash in consumers’ pockets increases aggregate demand.

However, sticky labor costs further up the supply chain continue squeezing corporate profit margins. Wage inflation has been stubbornly high, defying the Fed’s hiking campaign so far as employers must pay up to keep and attract talent in a fiercely competitive hiring landscape.

Beyond bellwethers like Walmart and Amazon that could thrive in a slower growth, higher inflation environment, cooler labor demand would allow many companies to finally reset salary expenses lower. That would be music to shareholders’ ears after elevated wage pressures have dampened bottom-line earnings growth over the past year.

Looking ahead, next week’s report on continuing unemployment claims will be closely parsed for signals the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy are gaining substantive traction. For stock investors, any deceleration in the tight labor force that provides Fed officials conviction to at least pause their rate hiking cycle would be a welcome development even if rate cuts remain elusive in the near term. As today’s claims data reminds, a pivot is far from imminent.

Powell Dashes Hopes for Rate Cuts, Citing Stubbornly High Inflation

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a reality check for investors eagerly anticipating a so-called “pivot” from the Federal Reserve, Chair Jerome Powell firmly pushed back on market expectations for interest rate cuts in the near future. Speaking at a policy forum on U.S.-Canada economic relations, Powell bluntly stated that more progress is needed in bringing down stubbornly high inflation before the central bank can ease up on its aggressive rate hike campaign.

“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said of getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target goal. “That said, we think policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face.”

The comments represent a hawkish doubling down from the Fed Chair on the need to keep interest rates restrictive until inflation is subdued on a sustained basis. While acknowledging the economy remains fundamentally strong, with solid growth and a robust labor market, Powell made clear those factors are taking a back seat to the central bank’s overarching inflation fight.

“We’ve said at the [Federal Open Market Committee] that we’ll need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% before [it will be] appropriate to ease policy,” Powell stated. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”

The remarks dash any near-term hopes for a rate cut “pivot” from the Fed. As recently as the start of 2024, markets had been pricing in as many as 7 quarter-point rate cuts this year, starting as early as March. But a string of hotter-than-expected inflation reports in recent months has forced traders to recalibrate those overly optimistic expectations.

Now, futures markets are only pricing in 1-2 quarter-point cuts for the remainder of 2024, and not until September at the earliest. Powell’s latest rhetoric suggests even those diminished rate cut bets may prove too aggressive if elevated inflation persists.

The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 consecutive times to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in over two decades, trying to crush price pressures not seen since the 1980s. But progress has been frustratingly slow.

Powell noted the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, clocked in at 2.8% in February and has been little changed over the last few months. That’s well above the 2% target and not the clear and convincing evidence of a downward trajectory the Powell-led Fed wants to see before contemplating rate cuts.

Despite the tough talk, Powell did reiterate that if inflation starts making faster progress toward the goal, the Fed can be “responsive” and consider easing policy at that point. But he stressed that the resilient economy can handle the current level of rate restriction “for as long as needed” until price pressures abate.

The overarching message is clear – any hopes for an imminent pivot from the Fed and relief from high interest rates are misplaced based on the latest data. Getting inflation under control remains the singular focus for Powell and policymakers. Until they achieve that hard-fought victory, the economy will continue to feel the punishing effects of tight monetary policy. For rate cut optimists, that could mean a longer wait than anticipated.