Category: Economy

Persistent Price Pressures Erode Consumer Confidence

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest consumer confidence readings paint a picture of an increasingly pessimistic American consumer, battered by stubborn inflation and growing concerns over the economic outlook. The plunge in sentiment comes at a pivotal time for the Federal Reserve as it grapples with getting price rises under control without sending the economy into a recession.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 97 in April, down sharply from 103.1 in March and marking the lowest level since the souring moods of summer 2022. The dismal April print missed economist estimates of 104 as elevated price pressures, especially for essentials like food and gasoline, weighed heavily on household psyches.

Perhaps more worrying for the economic outlook, consumers also grew markedly more downbeat about the trajectory for business conditions, job availability, and income prospects over the next six months. The expectations index plummeted to levels not seen since last July, with the survey’s written responses making clear that persistent inflation is taking a major toll.

“Elevated price levels, especially for food and gas, dominated consumers’ concerns, with politics and global conflicts as distant runners-up,” according to the Conference Board’s analysis. Consumers earning under $50,000 a year have remained relatively steady in their confidence, while middle- and higher-income households have seen sharper declines.

The gloomy outlook on the economy’s path comes as recent data has offered a mixed bag. Inflation has remained stubbornly high, defying the Fed’s projections for a steady decline. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs and is the Fed’s primary inflation gauge, rose 2.8% over the past year in March.

Not only did that overshoot estimates, but core PCE accelerated to a concerning 4.4% annualized pace in the first quarter. This has cast doubt on the Fed’s ability to wrestle inflation back down to its 2% target in a timely manner using just rate hikes alone.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged as much in April, stating “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence” that inflation is sustainably moving back to 2%.

This means the Fed’s fight against inflation is likely to grind on for longer, with interest rates projected to remain elevated well into 2024 and potentially longer. The federal funds rate currently sits in a range of 5-5.25% after over a year of aggressive rate hikes by the central bank.

While higher borrowing costs have slowed some sectors like housing and manufacturing, the impacts on services inflation and consumer prices have lagged. Consequently, the risk of overtightening by the Fed and precipitating a recession rises with each stubbornly high inflation print.

Complicating the outlook, first quarter GDP growth came in at a sluggish 1.6% annualized pace, missing estimates of 2.5% expansion. The deceleration from 3.4% growth in Q4 has sparked fears that excessive Fed tightening is already dragging on the economy.

This weakening backdrop is likely amplifying consumer unease over the potential for job losses and income hits, sapping the willingness to spend freely. While household balance sheets remain solid overall from the pandemic recovery, the renewed bout of pessimism bears close watching as consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity.

The Fed now faces a tricky challenge in quelling the inflation psychology that has taken hold without crashing growth entirely. Restoring price stability will require keeping monetary conditions tight for some time and accepting the economic pain that entails. But if consumer spirits remain depressed for too long, the subsequent pullback in spending could exacerbate any potential downturn. Threading that needle will be one of the central bank’s toughest tasks this year.

Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge Stubbornly High at 2.8%, Locking in Higher Rates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Inflation in the United States showed alarmingly little signs of cooling in March, according to the latest data on the Federal Reserve’s preferred price gauge released Friday. The stubbornly elevated readings essentially guarantee the U.S. central bank will need to keep interest rates higher for longer to fully constrain persistent price pressures.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.8% in March from a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported. This matched February’s annual increase and exceeded economists’ expectations of 2.7%.

On a month-over-month basis, the core PCE climbed 0.3% in March, in line with projections. The headline PCE price index including food and energy costs also rose 0.3% for the month and was up 2.7% annually.

The data highlights the challenges the Fed is facing in its battle to bring inflation back down to its 2% target after it surged to multi-decade highs last year on supply shocks, robust demand and pandemic-driven disruptions. Price pressures have proved remarkably persistent, defying the central bank’s aggressive interest rate hiking campaign that kicked off in March 2022.

“Inflation reports released this morning were not as hot as feared, but investors should not get overly anchored to the idea that inflation has been completely cured and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in the near-term,” said George Mateyo, chief investment officer at Key Private Bank. “The prospects of rate cuts remain, but they are not assured.”

The fresh PCE readings follow worse-than-expected inflation figures in Thursday’s GDP report that revealed the personal consumption expenditures price index surged at a 3.4% annualized rate in the first quarter. That was well above the 2.7% forecast and offset a decent 1.6% rise in economic growth over the same period.

The persistent inflation pressures backed bets that the Fed will likely leave interest rates unchanged at the current 4.75%-5% range at its next couple of meetings in June and July. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, traders now see around a 44% probability that the central bank could implement two quarter-point rate cuts by the end of 2023.

However, most analysts agree that the Fed would need to see clear signs that consistently high inflation is beginning to dent the still-robust labor market before feeling confident about pivoting to an easing cycle. Policymakers want to avoid making the same mistake of prematurely loosening monetary policy like they did in the 1970s, which allowed inflation to become deeply entrenched.

For investors, the path forward for markets hinges on whether the Fed can achieve a so-called “soft landing” by getting inflation under control without sparking a severe recession. Equity traders largely looked past Friday’s inflation data, with futures pointing to a higher open on Wall Street. But Treasury yields edged lower as traders increased bets on the Fed ultimately reversing course next year.

Still, the latest PCE figures underscore the Fed’s dilemma and the likelihood that interest rates will need to remain restrictive for some time to prevent inflation from becoming unmoored. That raises the risks of overtightening and potential economic turbulence ahead as the full impact of the most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s hits home.

Billionaire Leon Cooperman Sounds the Alarm on Looming Financial Crisis

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a characteristically blunt assessment, billionaire investor Leon Cooperman painted a grim picture of the current economic landscape during his recent appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box. The legendary investor, known for his storied career at Goldman Sachs and the success of his hedge fund Omega Advisors, did not mince words as he expressed grave concerns about the state of the nation’s leadership, fiscal policies, and the potential for an impending financial crisis.

Cooperman’s remarks kicked off with a scathing critique of the upcoming presidential election, describing the choices as “bad and worse.” This sentiment underscored his belief in a broader “leadership crisis” within the country, which he believes is exacerbating the already precarious economic situation.

At the forefront of Cooperman’s concerns is the ballooning federal debt and the persistent trade deficit plaguing the nation. “The evils of trade and debt deficit,” as he put it, are a ticking time bomb that could potentially trigger a financial crisis of unprecedented proportions. He emphasized that “deficits matter,” and the current trajectory is unsustainable, warning that the consequences of unchecked borrowing and spending could manifest in the form of higher interest rates, rampant inflation, and a weakened currency.

Cooperman also leveled criticism at the Federal Reserve, giving them a “low grade” for their handling of monetary policy. He lambasted the central bank for keeping interest rates near zero for nearly a decade, only to abruptly raise them by a staggering 500 basis points within a year. This whiplash-inducing policy shift, according to Cooperman, is symptomatic of the Fed’s missteps and lack of foresight.

Despite the stock market hovering near record highs, Cooperman warned of rampant speculation and froth in certain segments of the market. He cited the frenzy surrounding former President Trump’s social media venture and the proliferation of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) as examples of speculative excess. Cooperman cautioned that the current market euphoria might be misguided, as there are no clear signs that the Fed’s tightening measures have been sufficiently restrictive to rein in inflation.

Interestingly, Cooperman’s portfolio reflects a defensive posture, with 15% allocated to energy stocks and 20% invested in bonds. However, he expressed concerns about the ongoing lawsuit with Spectrum against the government, which could impact the value of his bond holdings.

In a contrarian move, Cooperman revealed a preference for equities over bonds, defying conventional wisdom that favors fixed-income assets in times of economic uncertainty. This stance underscores his belief that certain sectors and companies may offer better risk-adjusted returns than the bond market, which he views as overvalued.

Cooperman’s dire warnings and contrarian positions serve as a stark reminder of the uncertainties and potential pitfalls facing investors in the current market environment. While his views may be controversial, they underscore the importance of vigilance, risk management, and careful asset allocation in navigating the turbulent waters of the global economy.

As investors and financial professionals grapple with the challenges ahead, Cooperman’s sobering assessments demand careful consideration, even if they challenge conventional wisdom. In the end, his candor and willingness to voice unpopular opinions may prove invaluable in preparing for the potential storms on the horizon.

Corporate America Braces for Seismic Shift as FTC’s Noncompete Ban Kicks In

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a groundbreaking move that could reshape the dynamics of the American workforce, the Federal Trade Commission has fired a shot across the bow of Corporate America by enacting a near-total ban on noncompete agreements. The new regulation promises to upend long-standing business practices and trigger sweeping ramifications for companies, investors, and millions of workers.

On Tuesday, the FTC’s commissioners voted 3-1 to prohibit employers from imposing noncompete clauses that restrict workers from leaving for a rival firm. The ban applies not only to future contracts but also requires companies to nullify existing noncompete agreements, with few exceptions allowed for some highly-paid executives.

The rationale, according to the FTC, is that such clauses suppress wages, hamper innovation, and deprive workers of economic freedoms by limiting their career mobility and ability to pursue better opportunities. It’s an expansive assertion of regulatory power spotlighting the Biden administration’s pro-labor policy agenda.

“Companies with extraordinary leverage over employees shouldn’t be able to squeeze Americans with noncompetes that are often offered on a take-it-or-leave-it basis,” FTC Chair Lina Khan declared. “Today’s vote helps restore workers’ countervailing bargaining power and freedom of mobility.”

But the new edict is already facing a backlash from powerful business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which have accused the FTC of overstepping its legal authority. Within 24 hours, they filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block the “staggeringly overbroad” ban.

“This represents a startling regulatory overreach and stretches the FTC’s authority far beyond what Congress could ever have intended,” said Jeffrey Shapiro, a noncompete law expert at FCW Partners. “It will likely be bogged down in the courts for years.”

If the ban withstands the expected legal challenges, experts say the ripple effects could be seismic across a wide range of industries that have long leveraged noncompete clauses to protect trade secrets and retain top talent:

Tech Giants Face Talent Drain
Major tech hubs like Silicon Valley, Seattle and Austin could see a free-for-all in the battle for engineering and product talent no longer restricted by noncompete strictures. This could accelerate attrition at the FAANG companies and disrupt the aggressive recruiting tactics they’ve leaned on to poach stars. Public tech stock valuations may have to be reevaluated.

Manufacturing Risks Rise
Automakers and aerospace manufacturers that have stringently guarded R&D and intellectual property using noncompetes worry about a brain drain to rivals or upstart competitors. Smaller industrial firms may have to rethink business strategies if they can no longer tie down key personnel.

Healthcare Industry Upheaval
The healthcare industry, notorious for its aggressive use of noncompete language, could be turned upside down. Major hospital systems and staffing firms may struggle to retain nurses, doctors and specialists who can now seamlessly jump ship to competing practices or startups. Costs may spike for replacing those who exit.

While noncompete agreements faced growing restrictions in several states, the FTC’s action goes much further in seeking to eliminate them nationwide outside of very narrow circumstances. The resulting purge could catalyze significant workforce churn across the corporate landscape.

“Employers, investors and the markets have to prepare for severe disruption if this ban sticks,” said Eric Sibbitt, CEO of data analytics firm O*NET OnLine. “Holding onto your most valuable human capital will become exponentially harder.”

Whether it triggers an unleashing of professional talent or catastrophic defections of prized workers will be the multi-billion dollar question facing Corporate America. Buckle up for a brave new world of unrestricted job-hopping.

New Home Sales Rebound: A Boost for Small Caps and Economic Outlook

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In the realm of economic indicators, few metrics capture the pulse of consumer sentiment and economic vitality quite like new home sales. The recent surge in new home sales in the United States, hitting a six-month high in March, is a beacon of hope amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainties. This uptick not only signifies resilience in the housing sector but also holds implications for small-cap investors and the broader macroeconomic landscape.

The Commerce Department’s latest report delivered a bullish narrative, showcasing an impressive 8.8% increase in new home sales, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate soaring to 693,000 units. This surge, attributed partly to the persistent shortage of previously owned homes on the market, underscores the robust demand for housing despite challenges such as escalating mortgage rates.

For small-cap investors, this uptick in new home sales is more than just a statistical blip—it’s a promising indicator of consumer confidence and economic buoyancy. Strong housing demand typically translates into a flurry of economic activity, benefiting small-cap companies operating in sectors ranging from home construction and building materials to home improvement and real estate services.

However, amid the celebratory numbers lies a cautionary tale. The accompanying rise in the median house price, coupled with the upward trajectory of mortgage rates, paints a nuanced picture. While higher home prices can fuel revenues for homebuilders and related industries, concerns about affordability may cast a shadow on overall housing market growth, impacting small caps tethered to this sector.

Zooming out to the macroeconomic panorama, the implications of these housing market dynamics are far-reaching. A robust housing sector is not just about building and selling homes; it’s a linchpin of economic stability, contributing significantly to GDP growth, job creation, and wealth accumulation.

Economists and savvy investors are keeping a keen eye on how these developments unfold in the coming months. The recent uptick in mortgage rates, coupled with a slight dip in mortgage applications, hints at potential headwinds for new home sales. This cautious sentiment underscores the delicate dance between market exuberance and economic prudence.

Regional nuances in new home sales add depth to the narrative. While all four U.S. regions experienced increases in new home sales, sentiments among single-family homebuilders remain cautious. Buyers, in turn, are treading carefully, weighing the impact of rising interest rates on their purchasing power.

For small-cap aficionados navigating this dynamic terrain, a balanced approach is the name of the game. While opportunities may abound in sectors riding the housing market wave, strategic risk management and diversified portfolios are non-negotiables in today’s evolving economic landscape.

In summary, the resurgence in new home sales injects a dose of optimism into the market narrative. However, prudence tempered with opportunism will be the guiding ethos for investors eyeing the small-cap space amid shifting economic tides.

Oil Prices Spike as Middle East Conflict Reignites Supply Fears

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran have injected a new wave of supply disruption fears into global oil markets, sending crude prices surging to multi-month highs. The flareup threatens to further tighten supplies at a time when producers already appear maxed out, setting the stage for another potential energy price shock.

Crude benchmarks spiked over $90 a barrel in overnight trading after Israeli missiles struck Iran overnight. The attack came in retaliation for an Iranian drone and missile barrage targeting Israel just days earlier. While Iran has downplayed the impact so far, the tit-for-tat actions raised the specter of a broader military conflict that could imperil energy shipments throughout the Middle East.

Front-month Brent futures, the global pricing benchmark, jumped as high as $92 per barrel before paring gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude topped $89 per barrel. Though off their overnight peaks, both contracts remained up over 2% on the day, hitting levels not seen since late 2023.

The aerial attacks have put the market on edge over the potential for supply chokeholds out of the Persian Gulf. Any protracted disruptions in that key oil shipping chokepoint would severely crimp available exports to global markets from regional producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq.

With the oil market already grappling with reduced supply from Russia due to sanctions, as well as chronic underinvestment by drillers, even modest additional shortfalls could quickly drain limited spare capacity buffers. OPEC and its allies have struggled to boost output to offset losses amid the broader underinvestment cycle.

For consumers still reeling from high energy costs, another bullish jolt to oil prices is an unwelcome development. After pulling back from 2022’s dizzying peaks, U.S. gasoline prices have started rebounding in recent weeks. The current $3.67 per gallon national average is up 21 cents just over the past month, according to AAA.

Some of that increase was expected due to seasonal refinery maintenance impacts. But the renewed geopolitical turmoil could propel gasoline and other fuel prices significantly higher nationwide if the conflict engulfing Israel and Iran deteriorates further.

The energy spike compounds existing inflationary headwinds plaguing the global economy. From restricted supplies of grains and fertilizers to manufacturing disruptions, the shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to ripple far and wide over a year later. Rapidly escalating tensions in the Middle East risk aggravating those pressures at a time when central banks are still struggling to restore price stability.

While some of the risk premium prompted by the Israel-Iran conflict may already be priced into crude, the threat of escalating retaliatory actions between the two adversaries keeps bullish risks elevated. Additional supply hits to global markets from further hostilities could easily drive oil prices back towards triple-digit territory not seen since 2022.

On Wall Street, stock futures were initially rattled by the rising geopolitical tensions, though markets stabilized in early trading as Iran refrained from immediate retaliation. Still, the volatility injected reinforces the nebulous risks confronting investors from the ever-simmering Middle East powder keg.

With so much at stake for inflation outlooks, policymakers at the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be monitoring the region with hawkish vigilance. Though diplomatically challenging to resolve, an extended sectarian conflict jeopardizing the secure flow of oil could compel another crusade of aggressive interest rate hikes historically anathema to financial markets.

For both consumers and investors, the situation serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical shocks exposing vulnerabilities in tight energy markets remain an omnipresent threat overhanging the economic outlook. Whether this clash proves fleeting or portends protracted hostilities remains to be seen, but the reverberations have oil prices surging once again.

Nasdaq Tumbles as Netflix Shock Eclipses Mideast Crisis

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

US stocks were mired in a broad sell-off on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite extending their losing streaks to six sessions despite easing concerns over a potential military escalation between Israel and Iran. The slide puts both indexes on pace for their worst weekly losses in months as investors continue repricing expectations around Federal Reserve rate policy.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq bore the brunt of the selling, dropping 1.3% as disappointing earnings from streaming giant Netflix exacerbated the rout in high-growth companies. The S&P 500 fell 0.4%, dragged lower by weakness in its information technology sector.

In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, lifted by a massive post-earnings rally in American Express. But the divergent performance did little to soothe overall market jitters.

Netflix plummeted over 8% even after topping first-quarter profit and revenue estimates. The company’s decision to stop reporting paid subscriber metrics beginning in 2025 raised concerns on Wall Street about its ability to maintain its stratospheric growth trajectory.

The streaming industry bellwether’s slide reverberated across other pandemic winners. Chip stocks like Nvidia and data center firm Super Micro Computer tumbled 4% and 18% respectively, adding to this week’s brutal declines.

The technology-led selloff comes against a backdrop of unresolved global macro risks weighing on sentiment. Overnight, US equity futures careened lower and oil prices spiked after Israel launched airstrikes into Iran in retaliation for last week’s drone attacks.

However, markets appeared to take the muted response in stride as Friday’s session progressed. With neither side appearing eager to escalate the conflict further, crude benchmarks pared their earlier gains, while futures recovered most of their earlier losses.

Still, the flareup injected a fresh dose of geopolitical angst into markets already on edge over stubbornly high inflation and the implications for central bank policy tightening down the road. While no broader military conflagration has materialized yet, the smoldering tensions threaten to exacerbate existing supply chain constraints.

Ultimately, Wall Street’s immediate focus remains squarely on tackling decades-high consumer prices through aggressive monetary policy. And on that front, data continues to reinforce the challenges facing the Fed in bringing inflation back towards its 2% target.

This week’s string of hotter-than-expected readings, ranging from producer prices to housing costs, dimmed hopes for an imminent rate cut cycle central banks had been forecasting just months ago. Economists now don’t see the first Fed rate reduction until September at the earliest.

That policy repricing has piled pressure onto richly-valued growth and technology names which had rallied furiously to start the year. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq has now surrendered nearly all of its 2023 gains.

With the S&P 500 over 5% off its highs, earnings season takes on heightened importance for investors seeking reassurance that corporate profits can withstand further Fed tightening. So far, results have failed to provide much of a safety net with the majority of major companies reporting missing lowered expectations.

The deepening tech wreck underscores the dimming outlook for an already battered leadership group. Absent a decisive downtrend in inflation, markets could have more room to reset before finding their ultimate nadir.

Unemployment Claims Hold Rock-Steady as Fed Punts on Rate Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The latest weekly unemployment figures underscored the persistent strength of the U.S. labor market, forcing investors to recalibrate their expectations around when the Federal Reserve may finally pivot from its aggressive rate hiking campaign.

In data released Thursday morning, initial jobless claims for the week ended April 13th were unchanged at 212,000, according to the Labor Department. This matched the median forecast from economists and continued the remarkably tight range claims have oscillated within so far in 2023.

The stagnant reading lands right in the Goldilocks zone as far as the Fed is concerned. Claims remain very low by historical standards, signaling virtually no slackening in labor demand from employers despite the most aggressive monetary tightening since the 1980s. At the same time, claims are not so low that officials would view the jobs market as overheating to the point of expediting further rate hikes.

Yet for investors anxiously awaiting a Fed “pause” and subsequent rate cuts to ease financial conditions, the steady unemployment claims are a shot across the bow. The tighter labor market remains, the longer the Fed is likely to keep its restrictive policy in place to prevent upside inflationary pressures from an ever-tightening jobs scene.

That much was reinforced in candid comments this week from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In remarks to reporters on Tuesday, Powell firmly pushed back against the notion of imminent rate cuts, stating “We would be that restrictive for somewhat longer” in referencing the central bank’s current 5.25%-5.50% benchmark rate.

Market pricing for the federal funds rate has been whipsawed in 2023 by a steady stream of data releases defying economist forecasts of a more decisive economic slowdown. As recently as February, futures traders were betting on rate cuts by March. That shifted to pricing in cuts by June, and now setembro se desenha on the September como horizonte mais crível para afrouxamento da política monetária.

The backdrop has rattled stocks and other risk assets. Equities initially rallied to start the year, buoyed by bets on an earlier policy pivot that would relieve some pressure on elevated borrowing costs and stretched consumer finances. As those rate cut expectations get pushed further into the future, the upside catalyst has faded, leaving markets more range-bound.

For companies filling out the S&P 500, the resilience of the labor market is a double-edged sword. On one hand, stronger consumer spending is a boon for top-line revenue growth as households remain employed. More cash in consumers’ pockets increases aggregate demand.

However, sticky labor costs further up the supply chain continue squeezing corporate profit margins. Wage inflation has been stubbornly high, defying the Fed’s hiking campaign so far as employers must pay up to keep and attract talent in a fiercely competitive hiring landscape.

Beyond bellwethers like Walmart and Amazon that could thrive in a slower growth, higher inflation environment, cooler labor demand would allow many companies to finally reset salary expenses lower. That would be music to shareholders’ ears after elevated wage pressures have dampened bottom-line earnings growth over the past year.

Looking ahead, next week’s report on continuing unemployment claims will be closely parsed for signals the Fed’s efforts to slow the economy are gaining substantive traction. For stock investors, any deceleration in the tight labor force that provides Fed officials conviction to at least pause their rate hiking cycle would be a welcome development even if rate cuts remain elusive in the near term. As today’s claims data reminds, a pivot is far from imminent.

Powell Dashes Hopes for Rate Cuts, Citing Stubbornly High Inflation

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In a reality check for investors eagerly anticipating a so-called “pivot” from the Federal Reserve, Chair Jerome Powell firmly pushed back on market expectations for interest rate cuts in the near future. Speaking at a policy forum on U.S.-Canada economic relations, Powell bluntly stated that more progress is needed in bringing down stubbornly high inflation before the central bank can ease up on its aggressive rate hike campaign.

“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence, and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” Powell said of getting inflation back down to the Fed’s 2% target goal. “That said, we think policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face.”

The comments represent a hawkish doubling down from the Fed Chair on the need to keep interest rates restrictive until inflation is subdued on a sustained basis. While acknowledging the economy remains fundamentally strong, with solid growth and a robust labor market, Powell made clear those factors are taking a back seat to the central bank’s overarching inflation fight.

“We’ve said at the [Federal Open Market Committee] that we’ll need greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2% before [it will be] appropriate to ease policy,” Powell stated. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”

The remarks dash any near-term hopes for a rate cut “pivot” from the Fed. As recently as the start of 2024, markets had been pricing in as many as 7 quarter-point rate cuts this year, starting as early as March. But a string of hotter-than-expected inflation reports in recent months has forced traders to recalibrate those overly optimistic expectations.

Now, futures markets are only pricing in 1-2 quarter-point cuts for the remainder of 2024, and not until September at the earliest. Powell’s latest rhetoric suggests even those diminished rate cut bets may prove too aggressive if elevated inflation persists.

The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rate 11 consecutive times to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in over two decades, trying to crush price pressures not seen since the 1980s. But progress has been frustratingly slow.

Powell noted the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, clocked in at 2.8% in February and has been little changed over the last few months. That’s well above the 2% target and not the clear and convincing evidence of a downward trajectory the Powell-led Fed wants to see before contemplating rate cuts.

Despite the tough talk, Powell did reiterate that if inflation starts making faster progress toward the goal, the Fed can be “responsive” and consider easing policy at that point. But he stressed that the resilient economy can handle the current level of rate restriction “for as long as needed” until price pressures abate.

The overarching message is clear – any hopes for an imminent pivot from the Fed and relief from high interest rates are misplaced based on the latest data. Getting inflation under control remains the singular focus for Powell and policymakers. Until they achieve that hard-fought victory, the economy will continue to feel the punishing effects of tight monetary policy. For rate cut optimists, that could mean a longer wait than anticipated.

Dow’s Worst Week Since January as Inflation Tensions Flare

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Wall Street’s budding 2024 stock rebound hit a speed bump this week as stubbornly high inflation rekindled fears of an extended rate hike cycle – sending major indexes tumbling to cap a volatile stretch.

After rallying through most of March and early April, markets gave back ground over the last few sessions as fresh economic data suggested the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates higher for longer to fully squash rapid price growth.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the turbulent week down 2.3% to lead the market lower. The S&P 500 retreated 1.5% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq shed 0.5% – narrowly avoiding its third consecutive weekly decline.

“Inflation is too stubborn. That means less rate cuts and that’s not good for valuations,” said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments.

Fueling concerns, import prices jumped 0.4% in March – more than expected and the largest three-month gain in about two years according to the Labor Department. The closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey also showed inflation expectations ticking higher, suggesting price pressures remain frustratingly entrenched.

The worrisome data sparked a revival of the relentless selling that had gripped markets for most of 2023, triggering the worst day for the Dow industrials since early last year.

Still, the shellacking wasn’t completely one-sided. While banks led the retreat – with JPMorgan plunging over 5% after warning about sticky inflation – energy stocks like Exxon Mobil hit all-time highs as oil spiked on heightened geopolitical risks around the Middle East.

The volatile price action underscored Wall Street’s continuing tug-of-war as investors try to weigh whether the economy can avoid a harsh recession, even as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer to restore its 2% inflation target.

“We’ve lost the immediate benefit of the forecast rate cuts. The market is saying interest rates are not supportive now, but it still has earnings to rely on,” said Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle, Callaghan & Co.

Potential Opportunities in Emerging Growth Stocks
While the overall markets may be choppy with inflation worries persisting, volatile periods can present opportunities for investors to find undervalued gems, particularly among emerging growth stocks and smaller public companies.

As large-cap stocks face headwinds from elevated interest rates and input costs, many smaller and micro-cap firms with innovative products and services could be well-positioned to deliver outsized growth. However, additional research is required to identify quality opportunities in this space.

Investors looking to stay up-to-date on potential small and micro-cap stocks that may be flying under the radar can register for a free account on ChannelChek.com. This allows access to thousands of engaging investment ideas and analytical insights from diverse perspectives.

Back to the Big Picture
After kicking off the first quarter earnings season with big banks like JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo reporting mixed results this week, a clearer picture on the overall profit outlook should emerge over the next few weeks as hundreds more major companies report.

Outside corporate fundamentals, geopolitical risks also loomed large, with oil prices surging Friday on reports Israel is preparing for potential retaliation from Iran. U.S. crude topped $87 a barrel, adding to inflationary pressures.

While the S&P 500 remains solidly higher so far in 2024, up around 5% through Friday’s session, the week’s volatility served as a reminder that the path forward remains fraught amid high interest rates, rising costs, and risks of a harder economic landing.

For investors hoping the April rally could morph into a more durable uptrend, getting inflation fully under control remains the key to unlocking a sustainable comeback on Wall Street. This week’s price pressures data showed that while progress is being made, the battle is far from over.

“Despite the sell-off, financial conditions remain easy. We believe inflation progress will require tighter financial conditions, which should entail still higher long-term rates,” wrote Barclays’ Anshul Pradhan in a note advising investors to remain short on the 10-year Treasury.

With the Fed signaling a higher-for-longer rate path may be needed to restore price stability, markets could be in for more turbulence and diverging currents in the weeks and months ahead. This rollercoaster week may have been just a preview of what’s to come as Wall Street’s inflation fight rages on.

Hotter Inflation Pushes Back Expected Fed Rate Cuts

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Inflation picked up speed in March, with consumer prices rising at a faster pace than anticipated. The higher-than-expected inflation data throw cold water on hopes that the Federal Reserve will be able to start cutting interest rates anytime soon.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the costs of a broad basket of goods and services across the economy, rose 0.4% in March from the previous month. That pushed the 12-month inflation rate up to 3.5% compared to 3.2% in the year through February.

Economists had forecast the CPI would rise 0.3% on a monthly basis and 3.4% annually.

The acceleration in inflation was driven primarily by two major categories – shelter and energy costs.

Housing costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI’s weighting, climbed 0.4% from February and are now up 5.7% over the past 12 months. Rising rents and home prices get reflected in the shelter component.

Energy prices increased 1.1% in March after already jumping 2.3% in February. Gasoline costs have remained elevated despite recent pullbacks.

Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, core CPI also rose 0.4% for the month and 3.8% annually – both higher than expected.

The stronger-than-expected inflation readings make it more challenging for the Fed to start lowering interest rates in the coming months as financial markets had anticipated. Traders had priced in expectations that the first rate cut would occur by June based on Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments that inflation was headed lower.

However, following the hot March data, markets now project the Fed’s first rate reduction won’t come until September at the earliest. Some economists believe even a July rate cut now looks unlikely.

The acceleration in inflation puts the Fed in a difficult position as it tries to navigate bringing stubbornly high price pressures under control without crashing the economy. Policymakers have emphasized the need to see more concrete evidence that inflation is cooling in a sustained way before easing up on rate hikes.

Fed officials have pointed to an expected deceleration in housing costs, which tend to be sticky, as a key reason inflation should slow in the coming months. But the March data showed rents continuing to increase at an elevated pace.

The services inflation component excluding energy picked up to a 5.4% annual rate. The Fed views services prices as a better indicator of more durable inflationary pressures in the economy.

Some bright spots in the report included lower used vehicle prices, which declined 1.1%. Food costs only increased 0.1% with lower prices for butter, cereal and baked goods offsetting a big 4.6% jump in egg prices.

Overall, the March CPI report suggests the Fed still has more work to do in taming inflation back to its 2% target. Traders are now pricing in higher terminal interest rates and little chance of rate cuts in 2023 following the inflation surprise.

Persistently elevated inflation could ultimately force the Fed to hike rates higher than expected, raising risks of a harder economic slowdown. The central bank will provide more clues on its policy outlook when it releases minutes from its March meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

For consumers feeling the pinch of high prices, the March CPI data means little relief is likely coming anytime soon on the inflation front. The big question is how long stubbornly high inflation will persist and exacerbate the already difficult trade-offs facing the Federal Reserve.

Markets on Edge as Inflation Jitters Spark Volatility

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The red hot U.S. economy has financial markets caught between fears of overheating versus overtightening, leading to a tense environment of volatility and angst. U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, reversing early gains, as investors grew nervous ahead of this week’s critical inflation report that could help shape the Federal Reserve’s policy path.

All eyes are on Wednesday’s March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with economists forecasting headline inflation accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, up from 3.2% in February. The more closely watched core measure excluding food and energy is expected to ease slightly to 3.7% from 3.8%.

The CPI print takes on heightened importance after a slate of robust economic data has traders quickly recalibrating expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. At the start of 2024, markets were pricing in up to 150 basis points of easing as worries about a potential recession peaked. But those easing bets have been dramatically pared back to just around 60 basis points currently.

The shift highlights how perspicacious the “no landing” scenario of stubbornly high inflation forcing the Fed to remain restrictive has become. Traders now only see a 57% chance of at least a 25 basis point cut at the June FOMC meeting, down from 64% just last week.

“Given the strength of the economic data, it’s getting easier and easier to defend the notion that we might be closer to an overheating economy than one nearing recession,” said Dave Grecsek at Aspiriant. “At the moment, three rate cuts this year seems a little demanding.”

Tuesday’s market turmoil underscored this increased skittishness around the inflation trajectory and its policy implications. Major U.S. indices fell, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.38%, the S&P 500 off 0.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite declining 0.17%.

The sell-off was broad-based, impacting many of the high-growth tech leaders that have powered the market’s gains so far in 2024. Megacap growth stocks including Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft fell between 0.2% and 2.9%. Financial stocks, among the most rate-sensitive sectors, were the worst performers on the day with the S&P 500 Financials index down 0.8%.

The heightened volatility and economic uncertainty has been particularly punishing for the small and micro-cap segments of the market. These smaller, higher-risk companies tend to underperform during turbulent periods as investor appetite for risk diminishes. The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks fell 1.2% on Tuesday and is down over 5% from its highs just two weeks ago.

Cryptocurrency and blockchain-related stocks also got caught up in the downdraft, with Coinbase Global and MicroStrategy dropping sharply as bitcoin prices tumbled. Moderna bucked the bearish trend with a 6.9% surge after positive data for its cancer vaccine developed with Merck.

Geopolitical tensions around Iran’s threat to potentially close the critical Strait of Hormuz shipping lane added another layer of anxiety.

While some might view the market jitters as a buying opportunity, the unease is unlikely to dissipate soon given the Fed uncertainty. Investors will be closely scrutinizing the minutes from the March FOMC meeting due out on Wednesday as well for additional clues on policymakers’ latest thinking.

With inflation proving stickier than expected, the Fed has increasingly pushed back against market pricing for rate cuts this year. Several Fed officials have emphasized that any cuts in 2024 are far from assured if inflation does not moderate substantially. That will keep all eyes laser-focused on each CPI print going forward.

Markets have been whipsawed by conflicting economic signals and rampant volatility as investors try to game the unpredictable path ahead. With high stakes riding on the inflation trajectory and its policy implications, intense swings are likely to persist as markets grapple with this high-wire act between overheating and overtightening.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Warns of Higher Inflation Risk

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

In his latest annual letter to shareholders, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon struck a cautious tone about the economic outlook while renewing his criticisms of the stringent regulatory environment facing big banks.

The 67-year-old executive expressed concerns that persistently elevated inflation could prove “stickier” and force interest rates higher than currently expected. He pointed to the significant government spending programs, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to shrink its massive balance sheet, and the potential disruptions to commodity markets from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as risks that could keep upward pressure on prices.

Dimon stated JPMorgan is prepared for interest rates to range anywhere from 2% to 8% or even higher levels if needed to tame inflation. This highlights the bank’s caution around “unprecedented forces” impacting the economy that Dimon says warrant a prudent approach.

While the U.S. economy has proven resilient so far, Dimon seems to be bracing JPMorgan and shareholders for a bumpier road ahead marked by elevated price pressures.

The letter also contained Dimon’s latest broadside against the intensifying bank regulation stemming from the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath. He argued relationships between banks and regulatory agencies like the Federal Reserve “have deteriorated significantly” in recent years and become “increasingly less constructive.”

A particular flashpoint is a proposed new rule that would require banks to hold greater capital buffers as protection against potential losses. Dimon contends the rule would be damaging to market-making activities, hurt the ability of Americans to access mortgages and other loans, and simply push more activity into the less-regulated shadows of the financial system.

He questioned the entire post-crisis rule-making process, arguing it has been unproductive, inefficient, and potentially unsafe by driving more leverage into opaque areas. Dimon even raised the possibility of litigation if regulators refuse to change course on the new capital rule.

The increasingly embattled tone highlights the widening schism between the traditional banking sector and their regulators in Washington over the impacts of stringent new safeguards following the global financial crisis 15 years ago.

On the succession front, JPMorgan acknowledged that one of the board’s top priorities is “enabling an orderly CEO transition” from Dimon in the “medium-term” future. The filing named executives like Jennifer Piepszak and Daniel Pinto as potential candidates to eventually take over from Dimon as CEO once he steps down. Pinto, currently serving as President and COO, is viewed as immediately capable of taking over as sole CEO if a more abrupt transition is needed.

Dimon has been at the helm of JPMorgan since 2005 after joining from the bank’s merger with Bank One. In his letter, the long-tenured CEO reflected on JPMorgan becoming an “endgame winner” among the nation’s largest banks over the past two decades through that deal and others.

The bank also provided an updated estimate that its recent acquisition of the failed First Republic Bank will add closer to $2 billion in annual earnings going forward, above its initial $500 million projection. The accretive deal highlights JPMorgan’s firepower to act as a sector consolidator during times of crisis and instability.

Dimon spent part of his letter defending JPMorgan’s decision to withdraw from the Climate Action 100+ coalition focused on emissions reductions. He stated the bank will make its own “independent decisions” on emissions policies instead of being influenced by the group. Dimon also took aim at proxy advisory firms ISS and Glass Lewis, arguing they too often recommend splitting chair/CEO roles at companies without clear evidence it improves performance or operations.

While expressing pride in JPMorgan’s status as an “endgame winner,” Dimon’s latest letter also served as a defiant rejection of headwinds facing large banks from regulators, climate groups, and other outside forces. The combative leader who helped build JPMorgan into a banking titan is clearly positioning for more battles ahead as the second quarter of 2024 unfolds.