Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Release – Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Reports First Quarter Financial and Operating Results; Declares Quarterly Cash Distribution of $0.70 Per Unit; and Updates 2025 Guidance

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on Alliance Resource Partners

April 28, 2025

2025 Quarter Highlights

  • Total revenue of $540.5 million, net income of $74.0 million, and Adjusted EBITDA of $159.9 million
  • $57.7 million increase in net income and $36.0 million increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared to the Sequential Quarter
  • Added 17.7 million tons of contract commitments over the 2025 – 2028 time period
  • 2025 expected coal sales volumes over 96% committed and priced
  • Declares quarterly cash distribution of $0.70 per unit, or $2.80 per unit annualized

TULSA, Okla.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. (NASDAQ: ARLP) (“ARLP” or the “Partnership”) today reported financial and operating results for the quarter ended March 31, 2025 (the “2025 Quarter”). This release includes comparisons of results to the quarter ended March 31, 2024 (the “2024 Quarter”), and to the quarter ended December 31, 2024 (the “Sequential Quarter”). All references in the text of this release to “net income” refer to “net income attributable to ARLP.” For a definition of Adjusted EBITDA and related reconciliation to its comparable GAAP financial measure, please see the end of this release.

Total revenues in the 2025 Quarter decreased 17.1% to $540.5 million compared to $651.7 million for the 2024 Quarter primarily as a result of reduced coal sales volumes and prices as well as lower transportation revenues. Net income for the 2025 Quarter was $74.0 million, or $0.57 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, compared to $158.1 million, or $1.21 per basic and diluted limited partner unit, for the 2024 Quarter as a result of lower revenues and a decrease in the fair value of our digital assets, partially offset by lower operating expenses. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2025 Quarter was $159.9 million compared to $238.4 million in the 2024 Quarter.

Compared to the Sequential Quarter, net income in the 2025 Quarter increased by $57.7 million as a result of higher oil & gas royalty revenues, which increased 18.7%, improved per ton costs at our coal operations, lower depreciation, and an asset impairment charge in the Sequential Quarter. Partially offsetting these increases, coal sales volumes declined 7.7% and the fair value of our digital assets decreased compared to the Sequential Quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the 2025 Quarter increased 29.0% compared to the Sequential Quarter.

CEO Commentary

“Our overall operations performed as anticipated during the quarter, delivering sequential and year-over-year cost improvements in the Illinois Basin,” commented Joseph W. Craft III, Chairman, President and CEO. “In Appalachia, we expect meaningful improvement in mining conditions for the rest of the year, leading to increased production and lower costs to fall within our 2025 full year guidance range.”

Mr. Craft continued, “We were active on the contracting front, securing 17.7 million tons of additional contract commitments over the 2025-2028 time period. For 2025, we now have over 96% of our projected midpoint coal sales volumes contractually committed. The domestic market strengthened considerably in early 2025 due to the cold winter season, higher natural gas prices, diminishing coal inventories, and upward revisions in electricity demand forecasts from our customers, who continue to recognize ARLP as a trusted partner for their critical baseload fuel requirements.”

Mr. Craft concluded, “On April 8, 2025, President Trump signed four Executive Orders to expand domestic coal-fired generation, seeking affordable electricity for the American people and grid stability in anticipation of growing energy demand which is critical for our country’s national security interests. The Executive Order addressing grid reliability cited that rapid technological advancements, an expansion of AI data centers, and increased domestic manufacturing are driving an unprecedented surge in electricity demand and placing a significant strain on our nation’s electric grid. The White House now forecasts that U.S. electricity demand is expected to rise 16% over the next five years, three times the growth forecasted just a year ago.”

Release – Perfect Corp. Reports Unaudited Financial Results for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Research News and Market Data on Perfect

April 28, 2025

NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)– Perfect Corp. (NYSE: PERF) (“Perfect” or the “Company”), a leading artificial intelligence (“AI”) company offering AI and augmented reality (“AR”) powered solutions to beauty and fashion industries, today announced its unaudited financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2025.

Highlights for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025

  • Total revenuewas $16.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $14.3 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 12.1%. The increase was primarily due to growth momentum in the revenue of AI- and AR- cloud solutions and mobile app and web services subscriptions.
  • Gross profitwas $12.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $11.2 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 11.4%.
  • Net income was $2.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a net income of $0.6 million during the same period of 2024, an increase of 264.0%.
  • Adjusted net income (non-IFRS)1was $2.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to adjusted net income (non-IFRS) of $1.5 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 33.3%.
  • Operating cash flowwas $4.3 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $3.5 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 22.8%.
  • The number of active subscriber for the Company’s YouCam mobile beauty app and web services was 973,000 as of March 31, 2025, compared to over 902,000 as of March 31, 2024, an increase of 7.9%.
  • As of March 31, 2025, the Company’s cumulative customer base included 801 brand clients, with over 891,000 digital stock keeping units (“SKUs”) for makeup, haircare, skincare, eyewear, watches and jewelry products, compared to 732 brand clients and over 822,000 digital SKUs as of December 31, 2024. The number of Key Customers2of the Company as of March 31, 2025 was 148 compared to 151 as of December 31, 2024. This slight decrease was primarily driven by an increase in churn among North American client as a result of rising financial challenges in the macroeconomic environment.

Ms. Alice H. Chang, the Founder, Chairwoman, and Chief Executive Officer of Perfect commented, “Despite recent macroeconomic uncertainties, we continue to achieve revenue growth, maintain positive net income, generate healthy cash flow, with a robust balance sheet and positive operating cash flow. The consistent performance reflects the resilience of our team and the leadership of our management. By seizing market opportunities and expanding our total addressable market, we are not only attracting new clients but also building a solid foundation for sustained, long-term growth.”

Financial Results for the Three Months Ended March 31, 2025

Revenue

Total revenue was $16.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $14.3 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 12.1%.

  • AI- and AR- cloud solutions and subscription revenue was $14.1 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $12.4 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 13.3%. The increase was driven by the growth of YouCam mobile app and web services subscription, stable demand for the Company’s online virtual product try-on solutions from brand customers, and the growing popularity among consumers of Generative AI technologies and AI editing features for photos and videos. The growth in the mobile app and web services subscription revenue was also contributed by the continuous pricing optimization as well as the introduction of higher margin premium subscription plan, featuring enhanced functionality for more advanced Generative AI functionalities.
  • Licensing revenue remains stable at $1.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and March 31, 2024, respectively. The Company expects the licensing revenue will become increasingly immaterial as it continues to focus on strengthening its market leadership in the consumer beauty and AI mobile apps as well as in the beauty and fashion AI- and AR- industry.

Gross Profit

Gross profit was $12.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with $11.2 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 11.4%. Gross margin was 77.9% for the three months ended March 31, 2025, from 78.3% in the same period of 2024. The slight decrease in gross margin was primarily due to the increase in third-party payment processing fees paid to digital distribution partners, such as Google and Apple, due to the steady growth in our YouCam mobile app and web services subscription revenue.

Total Operating Expenses

Total operating expenses were $12.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared with $12.4 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 2.0%. The increase was primarily due to increases in research and development (“R&D”) and sales and marketing expenses, which was mostly offset by a decrease in general and administrative expenses in the first quarter of 2025.

  • Sales and marketing expenseswere $7.4 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $7.2 million during the same period of 2024, an increase of 2.6%. This increase was primarily due to an increase in marketing events and advertising expenses related to our mobile apps and cloud computing.
  • Research and development expenseswere $3.6 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $3.0 million during the same period of 2024, an increase of 17.5%. The increase resulted from increases in R&D headcount and related personnel costs.
  • General and administrative expenseswere $1.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $2.2 million during the same period of 2024, a significant decrease of 21.6%. The decrease was primarily due to reduced corporate insurance premium and external professional service fees.

Net Income

Net income was $2.3 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to a $0.6 million during the same period of 2024, an increase of 264.0%. The increase in net income was primarily due to (i) our steady revenue growth and effective cost control , and (ii) an increase in gains from financial liabilities in connection with our outstanding warrants.

Adjusted Net Income (Non-IFRS)

Adjusted net income was $2.0 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $1.5 million in the same period of 2024, an increase of 33.3%.

Liquidity and Capital Resource

As of March 31, 2025, the Company’s cash and cash equivalents remained stable at $128.3 million (or $164.6 million when including 6-month time deposits of $36.3 million, which are classified as current financial assets at amortized cost under IFRS), compared to $127.1 million as of December 31, 2024 (or $165.9 million when including time deposits and money market funds).

The Company had a positive operating cash flow of $4.3 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to $3.5 million in the same period of 2024. The Company continues to invest in growth while maintaining a healthy cash reserve to support business operations underscoring the Company’s operational health and sustainability.

Business Outlook for 2025

Based on the growth momentum in both YouCam mobile apps and web subscriptions and enterprise SaaS solution demands, the Company reiterates its expectation of a 13.0% to 14.5% year-over-year total revenue growth for 2025, compared to 2024.

Note that this forecast is based on the Company’s current assessment of the market and operational conditions, and that these factors are subject to change.

Conference Call Information

The Company’s management will hold an earnings conference call at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time on April 28, 2025 (8:00 a.m. Taipei Time on April 29, 2025) to discuss the financial results. For participants who wish to join the call, please complete online registration using the link provided below in advance of the conference call. Upon registering, each participant will receive a participant dial-in number and a unique access PIN, which can be used to join the conference call.

Registration Link: https://registrations.events/direct/Q4I51630494

A live and archived webcast of the conference call will also be available at the Company’s investor relations website at https://ir.perfectcorp.com.

About Perfect Corp.

Founded in 2015, Perfect Corp. is a leading AI company offering self-developed AI- and AR- powered solutions dedicated to transforming the world with digital tech innovations that make your virtual world beautiful. On its direct to consumer business, Perfect operates a family of YouCam consumer apps and web-editing services for photo, video and camera users, centered on unleashing creativity with AI-driven features for creation, beautification and enhancement. On Perfect’s enterprise business side, Perfect empowers major beauty, skincare, fashion, jewelry, and watch brands and retailers by supplying them with omnichannel shopping experiences through AR product try-ons and AI-powered skin diagnostics. With cutting-edge technologies such as Generative AI, real-time facial and hand 3D AR rendering and cloud solutions, Perfect enables personalized, enjoyable, and engaging shopping journey and helps brands elevate customer engagement, increase conversion rates, and propel sales growth. Throughout this journey, Perfect maintains its unwavering commitment to environmental sustainability and fulfilling social responsibilities. For more information, visit https://ir.perfectcorp.com/.

Forward-Looking Statements

This communication contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act, that are based on beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to Perfect. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by the following words: “may,” “will,” “could,” “would,” “should,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “estimate,” “predict,” “project,” “potential,” “continue,” “ongoing,” “target,” “seek” or the negative or plural of these words, or other similar expressions that are predictions or indicate future events or prospects, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. Any statements that refer to expectations, projections or other characterizations of future events or circumstances, including strategies or plans, are also forward-looking statements. These statements involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results, levels of activity, performance or achievements to be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on Perfect’s reasonable expectations and beliefs concerning future events and involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations. These factors are difficult to predict accurately and may be beyond Perfect’s control. Forward-looking statements in this communication or elsewhere speak only as of the date made. New uncertainties and risks arise from time to time, and it is impossible for Perfect to predict these events or how they may affect Perfect. In addition, risks and uncertainties are described in Perfect’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These filings may identify and address other important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. Perfect cannot assure you that the forward-looking statements in this communication will prove to be accurate. There may be additional risks that Perfect presently does not know or that Perfect currently does not believe are immaterial that could also cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements. In light of the significant uncertainties in these forward-looking statements, you should not regard these statements as a representation or warranty by Perfect, its directors, officers or employees or any other person that Perfect will achieve its objectives and plans in any specified time frame, or at all. Except as required by applicable law, Perfect does not have any duty to, and does not intend to, update or revise the forward-looking statements in this communication or elsewhere after the date of this communication. You should, therefore, not rely on these forward-looking statements as representing the views of Perfect as of any date subsequent to the date of this communication.

Use of Non-IFRS Financial Measures

This press release and accompanying tables contain certain non-IFRS financial measures, including adjusted net income, as supplemental metrics in reviewing and assessing Perfect’s operating performance and formulating its business plan. Perfect defined these non-IFRS financial measures as follows:

Adjusted net income (loss) is defined as net income (loss) excluding one-off transaction costs3, non-cash equity-based compensation, and non-cash valuation (gain)/loss of financial liabilities. For a reconciliation of adjusted net income (loss) to net income (loss), see the reconciliation table included elsewhere in this press release.

Non-IFRS financial measures are not defined under IFRS and are not presented in accordance with IFRS. Non-IFRS financial measures have limitations as analytical tools, which possibly do not reflect all items of expense that affect our operations. Share-based compensation expenses have been and may continue to be incurred in our business and are not reflected in the presentation of the non-IFRS financial measures. In addition, the non-IFRS financial measures Perfect uses may differ from the non-IFRS measures used by other companies, including peer companies, and therefore their comparability may be limited. The presentation of these non-IFRS financial measures is not intended to be considered in isolation from or as a substitute for the financial information prepared and presented in accordance with IFRS. The items excluded from our adjusted net income are not driven by core results of operations and render comparison of IFRS financial measures with prior periods less meaningful. We believe adjusted net income provides useful information to investors and others in understanding and evaluating our results of operations, as well as providing a useful measure for period-to-period comparisons of our business performance. Moreover, such non-IFRS measures are used by our management internally to make operating decisions, including those related to operating expenses, evaluate performance, and perform strategic planning and annual budgeting.

Merck KGaA to Acquire SpringWorks Therapeutics in $3.9 Billion Deal to Expand Rare Tumor Treatments

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany, is making a significant move to bolster its healthcare division, announcing plans to acquire U.S.-based SpringWorks Therapeutics for approximately $3.9 billion. The definitive agreement will see Merck pay $47 per share in cash, representing a 26% premium to SpringWorks’ 20-day average stock price before news of the deal first surfaced.

This acquisition fits neatly into Merck’s long-term strategy to expand its global healthcare portfolio, particularly in the area of rare tumors and precision oncology. With this deal, Merck will not only add two groundbreaking FDA-approved therapies to its pipeline but also strengthen its commercial footprint in the United States—the largest pharmaceutical market in the world.

SpringWorks brings to the table a robust portfolio focused on rare diseases and oncology. Its leading products include OGSIVEO® (nirogacestat), the first systemic therapy approved for adults with progressing desmoid tumors, and GOMEKLI™ (mirdametinib), the first FDA-approved treatment for both adults and children with neurofibromatosis type 1-associated plexiform neurofibromas (NF1-PN). Both therapies address underserved patient populations and are expected to drive immediate and sustainable revenue growth for Merck’s healthcare business.

“This acquisition marks a major step in our strategy to position Merck as a global powerhouse in science and technology,” said Belén Garijo, Chair of the Executive Board and CEO of Merck KGaA, Darmstadt, Germany. “It enhances our rare tumor portfolio, expands our presence in the U.S., and accelerates growth opportunities for our Healthcare sector.”

Financially, the acquisition is expected to be immediately revenue accretive and to contribute to earnings per share (EPS pre) by 2027. Merck plans to finance the acquisition through a combination of cash on hand and new debt while preserving its strong investment-grade credit rating.

SpringWorks’ CEO Saqib Islam expressed optimism about the deal, emphasizing that Merck’s resources and global reach will allow SpringWorks’ innovative therapies to benefit a broader population of patients worldwide. “We believe joining Merck will enable us to accelerate our mission to improve the lives of people affected by devastating rare tumors,” Islam said.

Regulatory approvals and SpringWorks shareholder approval are still pending, but both companies’ boards have unanimously supported the transaction. Closing is expected in the second half of 2025.

Beyond just two approved therapies, SpringWorks also brings a promising pipeline of additional programs targeting solid tumors and hematological cancers. Merck’s move to integrate this pipeline reflects its commitment to diversifying its portfolio while focusing on innovation-driven growth.

The acquisition also fits neatly into Merck’s wider portfolio strategy revealed during its 2024 Capital Markets Day: pursue external innovation through in-licensing and acquisitions that deliver early value. While healthcare remains a priority, Merck maintains ambitions to expand across its life sciences and electronics sectors as well.

For investors and the healthcare community, this deal signals that Merck is serious about building a leadership position in treating rare tumors and is willing to invest heavily to secure future growth. It also promises a significant expansion of treatment options for patients with limited existing therapies.

Take a moment to take a look at more emerging growth healthcare companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Robert Leboyer’s coverage list.

Alpayana’s All-Cash Offer for Sierra Metals

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Alpayana offers $1.15/share cash for Sierra Metals in a board-supported bid.
– Sierra Metals’ board recommends shareholders accept the premium offer.
– Experienced Alpayana extends bid deadline to May 12, 2025.

In a development that could significantly impact small and micro-cap mining investors, Sierra Metals Inc. (TSX: SMT) has announced an agreement in principle for an all-cash takeover bid from Alpayana S.A.C. and its Canadian subsidiary, Alpayana Canada Ltd. The offer, priced at CDN $1.15 per common share, represents a board-supported initiative that aims to bring Sierra Metals under the ownership of the experienced Peruvian mining firm.

This agreement marks a potential turning point for Sierra Metals, a Canadian company focused on copper production with additional base and precious metals by-products from its Yauricocha Mine in Peru and Bolivar Mine in Mexico. The all-cash offer provides a clear exit strategy for current shareholders at a defined premium, pending the finalization of a support agreement expected by April 30, 2025.

The CDN $1.15 per share bid has garnered the unanimous support of Sierra Metals’ Board of Directors and a special committee of independent directors. This endorsement is further strengthened by an oral fairness opinion from BMO Capital Markets, Sierra Metals’ financial advisor, which suggests the offer is fair from a financial perspective to the company’s shareholders, subject to certain conditions and limitations. Consequently, the Sierra Metals board will unanimously recommend that shareholders tender their shares to the Supported Bid.

Alpayana’s interest in Sierra Metals comes from a position of financial strength and extensive operational experience. Alpayana is a family-owned, private mining company with over 38 years of experience operating in Peru. Notably, the company boasts annual revenues exceeding US$500 million and is currently debt-free, indicating a robust financial foundation to support this acquisition. Alpayana emphasizes a commitment to sustainable and responsible mining practices, focusing on the well-being of employees, communities, and the environment. Their track record includes successful mergers and acquisitions and a long-term investment perspective.

To facilitate the transaction and provide Sierra Metals shareholders ample time to consider the offer, Alpayana Canada has extended the expiry time of its existing takeover bid to 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on May 12, 2025. This extension suggests a commitment from Alpayana to ensure a smooth and considered process for shareholders.

For investors in the small and micro-cap space, this acquisition presents a potential opportunity to realize immediate value on their Sierra Metals holdings. The all-cash nature of the offer removes future market risk associated with the company’s stock. However, for those who believe in Sierra Metals’ long-term growth potential, particularly given its recent discoveries and exploration opportunities in Peru and Mexico, the offer might represent a premature exit.

The coming weeks will be crucial as the support agreement is finalized and Sierra Metals issues an amended Directors’ Circular with further details and its formal recommendation. Investors should carefully review these documents and assess their investment objectives in light of this developing acquisition.

Take a moment to take a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Mark Reichman’s coverage list for more emerging growth industrials and basic industries companies.

Tesla Roars Back Upon New DOT Self-Driving Car Regulations

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Tesla’s stock price jumps significantly following the U.S. Department of Transportation’s new self-driving car regulations.
– The potential entry into the Indian market adds another positive catalyst for the electric vehicle and technology giant.
– CEO Elon Musk’s reduced involvement in the Trump administration is seen as a positive for the brand.

Tesla (TSLA) has seen a dramatic resurgence this week, with its stock price soaring on a wave of positive news, positioning it for a near-20% weekly gain. This rally comes after a challenging period for the electric vehicle (EV) and technology leader, which saw its stock plummet 50% from its December highs to its yearly lows.

The latest spark igniting investor enthusiasm came from the U.S. Department of Transportation (DoT), which unveiled a new framework for self-driving car regulations late Thursday. This framework includes measures to “streamline” reporting requirements for vehicles equipped with automated or driver-assist systems. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy emphasized the administration’s focus on outpacing China in innovation, stating that the new rules aim to cut red tape and establish a unified national standard that encourages both innovation and safety.

Adding to the positive momentum, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced an expansion of an existing program. This program, which previously exempted certain foreign-made autonomous vehicles from some review processes to accelerate testing, will now include U.S.-made vehicles. This development is seen as a significant tailwind for Tesla, which has been aggressively pursuing advancements in autonomous driving technology.

During the company’s recent earnings call, CEO Elon Musk reiterated Tesla’s expectation to begin “selling fully autonomous rides in June in Austin.” He further emphasized the company’s long-term vision, stating that “the future of the company is fundamentally based on large-scale autonomous cars and large-scale … numbers of autonomous humanoid robots.” Musk believes that Tesla’s ability to produce truly useful autonomous vehicles and robots at scale and low cost positions the company for “staggering” future value.

Beyond self-driving advancements, Tesla’s stock also received a boost from a Bloomberg report suggesting a potential imminent entry into the Indian market. The report indicated that some customers who had previously placed reservation deposits were receiving refunds, often seen as a precursor to a formal market entry. Tesla acknowledged on its earnings call that it had been “very careful trying to figure out when is the right time” to enter India, given the current tariff structure that could significantly inflate the price of its vehicles. This renewed speculation of entering a potentially massive market like India has clearly excited investors.

Earlier in the week, Tesla’s stock experienced its most significant jump following Elon Musk’s announcement during the earnings call that he would be “significantly” reducing his time spent in the Trump administration, specifically his role leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk’s involvement in the administration had reportedly weighed on the brand’s perception, particularly in Europe, contributing to slower sales growth in the early part of the year.

Noted Tesla bull Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities described Musk’s step back from his government role as “an off ramp” from a period of “global brand damage” and “political firestorm.” Ives believes this move will allow Musk to refocus on Tesla’s core strengths, particularly autonomous driving and robotics, potentially ushering in a “brighter chapter” for the company.

While this week’s rally has been significant, pushing the stock to its highest level in a month, it’s important to note that Tesla’s stock remains down approximately 30% year-to-date. Ives also cautioned that the “brand damage” caused by Musk’s political involvement “will not go away just by this move” and could have some lasting impact.

Nevertheless, the combination of favorable regulatory developments in the self-driving space, renewed hopes for entry into the Indian market, and a perceived positive shift in Elon Musk’s focus has created a powerful upward momentum for Tesla’s stock, offering a glimmer of hope for investors who have endured a challenging start to 2025.

U.S. Jobless Claims Hold Steady, But Labor Market Appears Stuck in Neutral

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Weekly jobless claims rose to 222,000, staying within a stable range despite wider economic uncertainties.
– The lack of layoffs is encouraging, but economists caution that the labor market appears frozen, with minimal hiring or quitting.
– The Fed is likely to monitor labor dynamics closely as it weighs timing for potential rate cuts.

The U.S. labor market continues to defy expectations of a slowdown—at least on the surface. Initial jobless claims edged up by 6,000 to 222,000 last week, according to data released Thursday by the Labor Department. The slight increase keeps new unemployment claims within the same stable range they’ve occupied for much of 2025, but behind the stability, some economists see signs that the labor market may be losing momentum.

The previous week’s claims were revised slightly upward to 216,000 from the originally reported 215,000. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected new claims to come in at 220,000. Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment benefits—a key measure of longer-term joblessness—fell by 37,000 to 1.84 million for the week ending April 12.

Unadjusted claims, which reflect actual filings without seasonal factors, dropped 11,214 to 209,782. This continued moderation underscores the absence of widespread layoffs, offering some reassurance that the economy remains resilient.

Still, not everyone is convinced the labor market is in good shape. Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, notes that the real story may not be told through jobless claims alone. “We’re not seeing much churn in the labor market,” she said in a CNBC interview. “Workers aren’t quitting, and companies aren’t hiring or firing aggressively either.” This dynamic points to a labor market that’s frozen in place—a phenomenon that can precede softening in employment and wage growth.

Zentner warns that although jobless claims remain low, they no longer reflect a thriving, dynamic job market. Rather, they may be signaling stagnation. In a growing economy, labor turnover is typically higher, with workers moving between jobs and businesses actively competing for talent. The current stillness suggests that companies may be holding off on workforce expansion amid macroeconomic uncertainty, including ongoing tariff disruptions and high interest rates.

These subtle shifts are important as the Federal Reserve continues to evaluate the path of interest rates. With inflation pressures still lingering and mixed signals from consumer spending and business investment, the labor market’s performance will be a key factor in any future Fed decision to cut rates.

So far, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have adopted a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing the need for greater clarity before making policy changes. But if job growth begins to stall while inflation persists, the central bank could find itself walking a narrow tightrope.

For small-cap investors, the lack of hiring may dampen near-term enthusiasm, especially in sectors tied to consumer demand or reliant on workforce expansion. On the other hand, the stability in jobless claims may continue to offer support for companies that are weathering the rate environment with lean operations. With market sentiment currently driven by macro headlines, labor data like today’s report is becoming increasingly critical to gauge future equity trends.

UPS to Acquire Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6B, Bolstering Cold Chain Logistics Leadership

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– UPS will acquire Canada-based Andlauer Healthcare Group for $1.6B to strengthen cold chain and healthcare logistics capabilities.
– The deal gives UPS deeper access to Canadian markets and expands its global healthcare supply chain footprint.
– AHG’s founder Michael Andlauer will continue to lead operations post-acquisition, helping to integrate and scale services under UPS Healthcare.

UPS is taking a significant leap forward in healthcare logistics with its agreement to acquire Canada-based Andlauer Healthcare Group (AHG) for approximately $1.6 billion USD (CAD $2.2 billion). The deal, set to close in the second half of 2025, marks a strategic expansion of UPS Healthcare’s cold chain capabilities and its broader push to become the global leader in complex healthcare logistics.

Under the terms of the acquisition, AHG shareholders will receive CAD $55.00 per share in cash, a substantial premium that reflects the value of AHG’s specialized supply chain and third-party logistics offerings tailored to the healthcare sector. The transaction is subject to shareholder approval and regulatory clearance but has already secured support from AHG’s controlling shareholder, Michael Andlauer.

This acquisition arrives at a critical moment for healthcare logistics. Demand for temperature-sensitive and high-precision delivery of pharmaceuticals, biologics, and medical devices has grown rapidly in recent years, driven by the rise of advanced therapies, clinical trials, and global vaccine distribution efforts. UPS is positioning itself to meet those demands with a highly integrated global network, now enhanced by AHG’s robust infrastructure and expertise.

AHG brings to the table a coast-to-coast Canadian distribution network, a suite of customized logistics solutions, and proven cold chain transportation capabilities. These services will become part of UPS Healthcare’s expanding footprint, which already boasts over 19 million square feet of cGMP and GDP-compliant distribution space across the globe.

Michael Andlauer, AHG’s founder and CEO, will continue to lead the company following the acquisition, heading UPS Canada Healthcare and helping to guide the integration. “UPS Healthcare and AHG employees share a similar customer and patient-centric culture,” said Andlauer. “Once the transaction is completed, the businesses will offer an even broader set of specialized logistics services to customers throughout Canada.”

Kate Gutmann, EVP and president of International, Healthcare and Supply Chain Solutions at UPS, said the move is aligned with UPS’s mission to be the premier global healthcare logistics provider. “This acquisition marks another important step in our declaration to be the number one complex healthcare logistics and premium international logistics provider in the world,” she said.

The acquisition is also expected to drive growth for UPS by expanding its cold chain capabilities and enhancing services for healthcare customers who require strict temperature control, visibility, and compliance throughout the logistics chain. As UPS builds out its global logistics infrastructure, this move strategically complements earlier investments in technology, infrastructure, and customer-driven healthcare solutions.

For investors in the healthcare logistics and small-cap space, the AHG acquisition underscores growing M&A interest in niche logistics providers with deep industry specialization. It also signals UPS’s continued focus on high-growth, high-margin sectors, and its commitment to staying ahead in the evolving global healthcare ecosystem.

Take a moment to take a look at more emerging growth healthcare companies by taking a look at Noble Capital Markets’ Research Analyst Robert LeBoyer’s coverage list.

New Home Sales Surge in March Despite Mounting Cost Pressures

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– New home sales rose 7.4% in March, driven by increased inventory and strong spring demand, especially in the South.
– Tariffs on steel and aluminum are expected to raise construction costs, with builders warning of price hikes later in 2025.
– Mortgage rates near 7% continue to limit affordability, but buyer activity remains resilient due to builder incentives and more supply.

New home sales in the U.S. saw a notable boost in March, as builders responded to seasonal demand with more inventory, despite challenges from rising mortgage rates and looming tariff-related cost hikes. The spring buying season got a lift, with the Census Bureau reporting a 7.4% jump in new home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 724,000 units — handily beating Bloomberg’s forecast of 685,000.

The increase reflects a strong start to what is typically the busiest time of the year for housing. Supply also played a critical role. Inventory rose to 503,000 new homes for sale at the end of March, the highest level since 2007, giving buyers more options amid a tight resale market. This bump in supply helped spur activity, especially in the South, where sales jumped at the fastest pace in nearly four years. The Midwest also saw gains, while activity declined in the West and Northeast.

The housing market’s momentum comes despite ongoing headwinds. Mortgage rates, which hover near 7%, continue to limit affordability for many buyers. These rates follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield, which has climbed recently amid investor unease about U.S. fiscal policy and political volatility. President Trump’s tariff policies and recent public threats to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have created further market anxiety, causing bond yields to rise and adding pressure on borrowing costs.

High interest rates aren’t the only affordability hurdle. The average new home sales price rose 1% in March to $497,700, while the median price dropped 7.5% to $403,600. This pricing mix suggests more movement in entry-level housing, likely a response to strong demand from first-time buyers and younger households.

Still, looming tariff pressures threaten to raise construction costs and squeeze builder margins. During a recent earnings call, PulteGroup warned that tariffs could increase construction expenses by about 1% in the back half of 2025, translating to an average of $5,000 more per home. CEO Ryan Marshall said the added costs would impact “every single price point and consumer group,” raising concerns about future pricing flexibility.

Taylor Morrison, another major builder, echoed these concerns, forecasting low single-digit housing cost inflation for the year. The culprit: U.S. tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, which are integral to HVAC systems, cable infrastructure, and other construction materials. These added costs are expected to hit hardest in Q4, as builders begin new projects under higher input prices.

To sustain buyer interest, many builders have leaned on incentives — including mortgage rate buydowns and design upgrades — but the staying power of this strategy remains uncertain. As cost pressures grow and rate cuts remain off the table for now, builders may have to choose between profit margins and affordability.

Despite these challenges, the resilience in March’s new home sales shows that the housing market still has underlying strength. For now, buyers appear willing to move forward when supply meets their needs — even in the face of higher borrowing costs.

Could Michael Burry Replace Jerome Powell?

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

Earlier this month, a satirical meme circulated on social media, suggesting that President Donald Trump is considering Michael Burry to replace Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve. While clearly intended as a joke, the meme has ignited discussions about the intersection of politics, finance, and the influence of unconventional figures like Burry.​

Michael Burry, renowned for predicting the 2008 housing market crash—a story dramatized in The Big Short—has long been a controversial figure in the investment world. His hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, is known for contrarian bets and a penchant for swimming against the tide of mainstream financial thought.​

President Trump’s strained relationship with Jerome Powell is well-documented. During his first term, Trump frequently criticized Powell’s interest rate decisions, and tensions have reportedly persisted into his second term. The meme, though satirical, taps into real sentiments about potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership.​

Burry’s recent investment moves add another layer to the conversation. According to Scion Asset Management’s Q4 2024 13F filing, Burry has reallocated his portfolio, reducing positions in major Chinese tech companies like Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com, while increasing investments in healthcare and consumer sectors, including companies like Molina Healthcare and Estee Lauder . This shift indicates a strategic move towards more defensive sectors amid global economic uncertainties.​

The meme’s suggestion of Burry as a potential Fed Chair, while facetious, underscores a broader discourse on the direction of U.S. monetary policy under Trump’s leadership. Burry has been vocal about his concerns regarding inflation and the consequences of prolonged low-interest rates, often expressing skepticism about the Federal Reserve’s strategies.​

While it’s highly improbable that Burry would be appointed to lead the Federal Reserve, the meme reflects a growing appetite for unconventional approaches to economic policy. As the U.S. navigates complex financial challenges, the idea of a maverick investor like Burry at the helm, though unlikely, captures the imagination of a public weary of traditional economic stewardship.​

In the end, the meme serves as a cultural touchstone, highlighting the public’s engagement with economic policy and the figures who influence it. Whether viewed as satire or a commentary on the current state of affairs, it brings to light the dynamic interplay between politics, finance, and public perception in 2025.​

Solar Stocks Surge as US Announces Steep Tariffs on Southeast Asian Panel Imports

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– US plans tariffs up to 3,521% on solar panel imports from four Southeast Asian nations.
– Domestic solar stocks surged, led by First Solar and Sunnova Energy.
– The move could revive US-based solar manufacturing and reshape the industry.

Solar stocks rallied Tuesday after the US Department of Commerce unveiled plans to impose massive tariffs — as high as 3,521% — on solar panel imports from four Southeast Asian countries. The move sent shares of domestic solar manufacturers sharply higher as investors bet on a wave of renewed demand for American-made panels.

First Solar (FSLR) led the charge, soaring more than 9%, while Sunnova Energy (NOVA) jumped over 12%. Other solar-related names like SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), Array Technologies (ARRY), and Enphase Energy (ENPH) also posted notable gains. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN), a barometer for the sector, rose nearly 5% on the day, signaling a broad-based rally.

The proposed duties follow a yearlong investigation into claims that Chinese solar manufacturers were using proxy operations in Southeast Asia to circumvent earlier trade restrictions. The Commerce Department concluded that imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam were being “dumped” into the US market — sold at artificially low prices — with the backing of Chinese state subsidies. Companies in Cambodia that failed to cooperate with the probe face the stiffest penalties.

If approved by the International Trade Commission (ITC), the tariffs could reshape the competitive landscape for solar panel manufacturing, providing a significant tailwind for US-based producers. The ITC has until June 2 to determine whether the subsidized imports harmed the domestic solar industry — a key requirement before the Commerce Department can implement the levies.

The decision is a major victory for the American Alliance for Solar Manufacturing, a coalition of US-based producers that pushed for the trade probe. The group has long argued that Chinese-headquartered firms have gamed the system by establishing operations in neighboring countries while continuing to benefit from Chinese subsidies. Advocates say the resulting price suppression has undermined domestic companies and led to job losses across the sector.

For US manufacturers, the announcement caps years of efforts to shift production closer to home — a trend first accelerated by the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, which offered tax incentives for domestic clean energy development. Companies like Enphase and First Solar have been actively reshoring production. First Solar, for example, opened a new facility in Alabama last year and now boasts a sizable manufacturing footprint in Ohio and Louisiana.

Despite Tuesday’s rally, solar stocks have struggled in 2025. Rising interest rates have increased financing costs for consumers, putting downward pressure on demand. The sector was also rattled by political headwinds following President Trump’s return to the White House and his vocal support for traditional energy. The tariffs, however, may signal a shift — a more nuanced approach to energy independence that could favor domestic solar even under a fossil fuel-friendly administration.

While the solar ETF TAN remains down more than 13% year to date and 27% lower over the past 12 months, the tariff announcement could serve as a turning point. Investors appear to be recalibrating their expectations for the space, betting that the tariff protections will help stabilize margins and renew growth.

If finalized, the tariffs could usher in a new chapter for American solar, one where domestic innovation and manufacturing play a central role in the industry’s expansion.

Bitcoin Breaks Out as Safe-Haven Bet Amid Market Chaos

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points
– Bitcoin has rallied nearly 20% in April, diverging from slumping tech stocks.
– The cryptocurrency is trading more like gold amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
– ETF inflows and technical levels suggest further upside momentum.

Bitcoin has staged a striking rally in April, jumping nearly 20% from its early-month lows and defying the broader risk-off sentiment that’s gripped traditional markets. As stocks slumped, particularly in tech, and the U.S. dollar weakened under pressure from geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin began to chart a different path — one that more closely mirrors gold than growth stocks.

The largest cryptocurrency surged to nearly $90,000 on Tuesday, its highest level since early March, in a move that’s reigniting hopes of a long-awaited decoupling from U.S. tech equities. For most of the past two years, Bitcoin has traded like a highly volatile cousin of the Nasdaq, rising and falling with investor appetite for risk. But as the market landscape shifts under the weight of aggressive tariffs, inflation worries, and political drama in Washington, Bitcoin’s narrative as a “digital store of value” is once again gaining traction.

The turning point appears to have been the fallout from President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff moves and his pointed attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. These developments rattled markets and sent investors scrambling for assets perceived to be safe havens. Gold rocketed past $3,500 an ounce — a record — while the dollar slid to a 15-month low. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s climb has started to mirror gold’s trajectory rather than tech’s slide.

Analysts see this shift as potentially foundational for the crypto space. Augustine Fan, a partner at crypto trading platform SignalPlus, noted that after a year of being labeled a “leveraged Nasdaq proxy,” Bitcoin is finally showing signs of reclaiming its original appeal as an alternative to fiat-based monetary systems. As questions mount over U.S. financial leadership and the credibility of the Fed’s independence, some investors are once again turning to decentralized assets as a hedge against systemic instability.

Adding to the momentum, U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw $381 million in inflows on Monday — their largest single-day intake since January. That marks a meaningful vote of confidence from institutional investors, who appear to be reallocating from traditional assets into Bitcoin in response to changing macro conditions.

Technical analysts also see room for continued upside. If Bitcoin can sustain levels above $88,800, several market watchers forecast a push toward the $92,000 to $94,000 range. For now, Bitcoin is benefiting from a rare combination of macro catalysts: weaker dollar, shaky central bank leadership, and increasing demand for liquid alternatives to traditional hedges.

For investors in small and micro-cap stocks, Bitcoin’s rise amid market turmoil may offer indirect encouragement. A shift in sentiment toward alternative assets often coincides with a renewed appetite for asymmetric opportunities — and the small-cap space typically sees a resurgence when investors move beyond large-cap safety plays in search of growth. If Bitcoin’s rally proves durable, it could signal a broader re-risking in pockets of the market not tethered to mega-cap tech.

CMOC Acquires Lumina Gold for C$581 Million in All-Cash Deal

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– CMOC’s acquisition of Lumina Gold offers shareholders a 71% premium over the 20-day VWAP and a 41% premium over the April 17, 2025 closing price.​
– The acquisition aims to propel the development of the Cangrejos project, one of the largest primary gold deposits globally, with CMOC providing interim financing to support ongoing needs.​
– The deal reflects strong investor confidence in the mining sector, potentially influencing indices like the Russell 2000 and upcoming Russell reconstitution.

Lumina Gold Corp. (TSXV: LUM) has announced a definitive agreement to be acquired by CMOC Singapore Pte. Ltd., a subsidiary of CMOC Group Limited, in a strategic all-cash transaction valued at approximately C$581 million. Under the deal, CMOC will purchase all outstanding Lumina shares at C$1.27 per share — a significant premium that reflects growing interest in high-potential gold projects and underscores the strategic value of Lumina’s flagship asset, the Cangrejos project in Ecuador.

This premium amounts to a 71% increase over Lumina’s 20-day volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and a 41% premium to its closing price on April 17. The all-cash offer, which is not subject to financing conditions, offers immediate liquidity to shareholders and removes future exposure to commodity and execution risks.

Backed by over a decade of exploration and development, Lumina has transformed the Cangrejos project from an undeveloped parcel into one of the largest primary gold deposits in the world. With proven scale and a completed Pre-Feasibility Study in 2023, Cangrejos represents a cornerstone asset for CMOC’s continued expansion into Latin America’s resource-rich regions.

As part of the transaction, CMOC has also committed to interim financing of US$20 million via unsecured convertible notes to support near-term development. The notes carry a 6% annual interest rate and a conversion price of C$1.00 per share — itself an 11% premium to Lumina’s market close at the time of signing.

Lumina’s board of directors unanimously approved the transaction following a recommendation from a special committee of independent directors. Shareholders holding 52.3% of Lumina’s outstanding shares have already entered into support agreements to vote in favor of the acquisition. The board also received a fairness opinion from RBC Capital Markets, affirming that the offer is fair from a financial standpoint.

CEO Marshall Koval expressed confidence in the new ownership, noting, “The Lumina team is excited for the transition of the Cangrejos project to CMOC. We look forward to working with them and our stakeholders to ensure the project’s success.” His optimism reflects not just a major milestone for Lumina but also growing global confidence in strategic resource development.

The transaction still requires regulatory approvals, court sanctioning, and support from two-thirds of Lumina’s shareholders and option/RSU holders at a special meeting. If completed as expected in Q3 2025, Lumina will be delisted from the TSXV and will cease to be a reporting issuer under Canadian securities laws.

For the broader market — especially small-cap mining investors — the deal signals a strong vote of confidence in the long-term value of precious metals. As geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty drive interest in hard assets, acquisitions like this could draw renewed attention to junior miners with quality assets and strong development pipelines. With the Russell Reconstitution on the horizon, such transactions could also influence index inclusion for mining-focused small caps, giving them greater visibility and institutional exposure.

In the current environment, CMOC’s acquisition of Lumina is more than just a business deal — it’s a strategic alignment that underscores the future of gold exploration and the global appetite for untapped mineral wealth.

Trump’s Powell Threat Rattles Wall Street, Ignites Flight from U.S. Assets

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Stocks and the U.S. dollar dropped as markets reacted to Trump’s threat to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
– Concerns over Fed independence sparked a flight from U.S. assets into gold and foreign bonds.
– Investors fear increased volatility, weakening confidence in the dollar and U.S. monetary policy.

On Monday, April 21, 2025, U.S. financial markets experienced significant volatility following President Donald Trump’s renewed criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Trump’s public suggestion that he may attempt to remove Powell has heightened concerns about political interference in monetary policy — a cornerstone of market confidence. The S&P 500 dropped over 1%, while the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell to a 15-month low. Treasury yields jumped, pushing the 10-year above 4.4%, reflecting the market’s unease with rising inflation risk and a potentially less independent Fed.

At the same time, investors poured into safe-haven assets. Gold surged to a record above $3,400 an ounce, while the Swiss franc and Japanese yen rallied. The sharp movements signal not just a knee-jerk reaction to headlines, but deeper anxiety over the future of monetary policy. Analysts have warned that undermining the Fed’s credibility could cause long-term damage to the dollar’s global reserve status and complicate the central bank’s ability to steer the economy during periods of stress.

Markets are now on edge over the prospect of a politicized Federal Reserve. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett confirmed that Trump is reviewing the legality of removing Powell — a move seen by many as extreme and historically unprecedented. While legal scholars argue the president lacks the authority to fire the Fed Chair without cause, the noise alone has proven enough to shake investor confidence. Fed officials have maintained a measured tone, but Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned over the weekend that undermining central bank independence is a dangerous path.

For small and micro-cap investors, the ripple effects are particularly pronounced. These companies typically have tighter margins, higher debt costs, and fewer international buffers than large-cap peers. In a rising rate or inflationary environment — or worse, one with erratic policy signals — smaller firms can see financing dry up and market multiples compress rapidly. Investors focused on this space should be watching both policy headlines and macroeconomic indicators closely, as volatility may linger longer than anticipated.

Adding to market pressure, geopolitical tensions have grown. Reports that Chinese investors are reducing U.S. Treasury holdings in favor of European and Japanese debt point to an early-stage shift in global capital allocation. If trust in U.S. governance continues to erode, further capital outflows could strain markets even more. At the same time, the White House’s ongoing tariff disputes are reshaping trade routes and disrupting sectors from tech to commodities. All of this contributes to an environment where capital seeks safety — and where policymaker credibility is paramount.

This shifting market sentiment could have meaningful implications for small-cap stocks, particularly those tracked by the Russell 2000. As investors rotate away from large-cap tech and U.S. dollar-denominated assets, the Russell’s reconstitution later this year may spotlight high-quality domestic companies with strong fundamentals and less exposure to geopolitical volatility. For savvy investors, this uncertainty could ultimately shine a light on overlooked small-cap opportunities poised to benefit from changing capital flows and renewed interest in U.S.-focused growth stories.