Author: slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The Russell Reconstitution 2025 Preliminary List

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com

The preliminary list of stocks to be included in the Russell Reconstitution, and also which Russell Index, is a huge day for many stock investors and the impacted companies as well. This year, it occurs on Friday, May 23. The list, although preliminary and subject to refinements each Friday through June, includes the stocks that are believed to meet the requirements based on valuations taken on April 30. This is the first official file from the popular index provider, in addition to informing the investor public what to expect when the indexes are reconstituted. The reconstitution can be expected to impact prices as index fund managers readjust holdings. The event also, for many, redefines market-cap levels that are considered small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap.

Background

The Russell Reconstitution is an annual event that reconfigures the membership of the Russell indexes by defining the top 3000 stocks based on market-cap (Russell 3000), then the top 1000 stocks (Russell 1000), and reclassifying the smaller 2000 stocks to form the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. These serve as a benchmark for many institutional investors, as the indexes reflect the performance of the U.S. equity market across different market-cap classifications. The reconstitution process adds, removes, and weights stocks to ensure the indexes accurately represent the market.

The Preliminary List which will be published after the market closes on May 23, 2025, is a crucial step in the market cap reclassification process. It provides market participants with an initial glimpse into potential additions and deletions from the indexes. The stocks listed on this preliminary roster may experience increased attention from investors, as it hints at potential buying or selling pressure once the final reconstitution is completed.

The newly reconstituted indexes become live after the market close on June 23.

Implications for Investors

The release of the Russell Preliminary List on May 23 could provide opportunities for investors, including:

Enhanced Market Visibility – Companies listed on the Preliminary List may experience increased trading volumes and heightened market popularity, or even scrutiny, as investors evaluate their potential inclusion in the Russell indexes.

Potential Price Movements – Stocks slated for addition or deletion from the indexes can experience price volatility as market participants adjust their positions to align with the anticipated reconstitution changes.

Portfolio Adjustments – Active managers who track the Russell indexes may need to realign their portfolios to reflect the new index constituents, potentially triggering buying or selling activity in affected stocks.

Investor Considerations

Stock market participants should consider the following factors when analyzing the Preliminary List and its potential impact:

Final Reconstitution – The Preliminary List is subject to changes in the final reconstitution, which is typically announced in late June. Investors should monitor subsequent updates to confirm the actual index membership changes. These updates may occur as the result of faulty data or dramatic changes to the company such as a merger since the April 30 market cap snapshot.

Fundamental Analysis – As always, the fundamentals and financial health of the companies should be among the most important factors for non-index investors to consider. In the past, potential additions often presented attractive investment opportunities, while potential deletions may mean the stock gets less attention from investors.

Take Away

The release of the Preliminary List on May 23, 2025, marks a significant milestone in the Russell Reconstitution process. Investors should pay close attention to the stocks listed, as they may experience increased market visibility and potential price movements. However, it is important to remember that the Preliminary List is subject to changes. Thorough fundamental analysis, including earnings, potential growth, and liquidity assessment, is prudent for most stock investments. For more information to evaluate small-cap names, look to Channelchek as a source of data on over 6,000 small cap companies.

Levi Strauss Sells Dockers to Authentic Brands for Up to $391 Million

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Levi Strauss sells Dockers to Authentic Brands Group for up to $391M to sharpen focus on core labels.
– Dockers, a 1980s icon of “Casual Friday,” has struggled amid the rise of athleisure and remote work.
– Authentic aims to revitalize Dockers and expand it into new markets and categories.

Levi Strauss & Co. is parting ways with one of its most recognizable labels, announcing Tuesday that it will sell its Dockers brand to Authentic Brands Group for up to $391 million. The sale marks a major shift for Levi Strauss, which is increasingly focused on its namesake denim line and the growing Beyond Yoga brand.

The transaction includes an initial payment of $311 million, with the potential for an additional $80 million in performance-based payouts. The sale is expected to close by July 31, 2025, for U.S. and Canadian operations, with global segments transitioning by January 2026.

Dockers, launched by Levi’s in 1986, became a defining symbol of the 1990s “Casual Friday” movement. Known for its khakis and relaxed office wear, the brand helped usher in a cultural shift away from stiff corporate dress codes. But in recent years, Dockers has fallen out of fashion favor, as a pandemic-driven work-from-home culture and the meteoric rise of athleisure wear left traditional khakis collecting dust in closets.

“Selling Dockers further aligns our portfolio with our strategic priorities,” Levi Strauss CEO Michelle Gass said. “We’re doubling down on the Levi’s brand and on high-growth categories like athleisure.” Gass also praised the Dockers team for its decades of brand stewardship, calling the line “the authority on khaki.”

The decision comes amid a broader effort by Levi Strauss to tighten its brand focus and revitalize profitability. In fiscal 2024, Levi’s reported $210.6 million in profit on $6.36 billion in revenue. However, growth in its core denim line and newer segments like Beyond Yoga has far outpaced Dockers in recent years.

Meanwhile, the buyer — Authentic Brands Group — is no stranger to resurrecting legacy names. The brand management firm, led by founder and CEO Jamie Salter, owns a portfolio of well-known but often underperforming or dormant brands, including Reebok, Brooks Brothers, and Forever 21.

Salter described Dockers as a “natural fit” for Authentic’s brand development model. “Dockers played a key role in shaping casual workwear, and we see significant potential to build on that legacy,” he said. Authentic plans to expand the Dockers brand across multiple categories and potentially international markets.

Analysts view the deal as a win-win: Levi Strauss sharpens its brand identity while shedding a slower-growth asset, and Authentic takes on a nostalgic brand with solid name recognition and room for reinvention. The sale also highlights the ongoing evolution in consumer preferences, as shoppers prioritize comfort, versatility, and lifestyle-driven fashion over traditional workplace attire.

As Dockers moves into new hands, the brand that helped define office wear for a generation now faces a new challenge—redefining its place in a post-business-casual world.

Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT) – There Is A Path Forward

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Tuesday, May 20, 2025

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Taking the necessary steps to remain listed. The company faces a two pronged battle to remain listed on the NASDAQ. On one front, it must address the shareholder equity deficiency. And, on the other front, it must address the stock price, which is trading below $1. We view the issues separately and believe that the company has a strategy to remain listed on both fronts. 

Addressing the shareholder deficit. The company has a program to raise capital through an equity reserve facility to address its shareholder deficit issue to comply with a NASDAQ requirement. To date, the company has raised $7 million on its $20 million facility. The company could raise even more capital when it becomes S3 eligible at the end of Summer. Currently, the company is $23 million short of turning shareholder equity positive. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Google Teams Up with Warby Parker and Gentle Monster to Launch AI-Powered Smart Glasses

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Google partners with Warby Parker, Gentle Monster, and Samsung to develop Android XR smart glasses powered by Gemini AI.
– Features include in-lens displays, cameras, real-time translation, and smartphone integration.
– The move sets up a new front in the wearables race against Meta and Apple

Google is reentering the smart glasses race with renewed focus and fresh partners. At its annual Google I/O conference in Mountain View, California, the tech giant announced partnerships with eyewear brands Warby Parker and Gentle Monster to create stylish, AI-powered smart glasses. The company is also expanding its collaboration with Samsung into the realm of intelligent eyewear, building on their joint efforts in augmented reality.

Unlike the tech-heavy and socially awkward Google Glass of 2013, Google’s new smart glasses aim to blend cutting-edge functionality with fashion-forward design. Set to run on the new Android XR operating system, the glasses will include features like turn-by-turn navigation, real-time translation, camera-enabled photography, hands-free calling, and seamless integration with apps—all delivered through the company’s Gemini AI platform.

In a direct challenge to Meta’s Ray-Ban Meta glasses, Google’s new offering will pair with smartphones and be equipped with microphones, speakers, and optional in-lens displays. These displays will allow users to access information such as text messages or directions without pulling out their phone. While the glasses will still rely on smartphones for processing and connectivity, they mark a significant leap in the evolution of wearable tech.

“This new wave of smart glasses is about combining form and function,” said Rick Osterloh, Google’s SVP of Devices & Services. “By working with top eyewear designers, we’re making sure these devices are not only useful, but also something people will want to wear every day.”

Importantly, Google says it will begin working with developers and testers later this year to fine-tune the technology, especially in terms of privacy and usability—areas that proved problematic for the original Google Glass. That early attempt, which cost $1,500 and looked like something out of a sci-fi film, failed to gain traction with mainstream consumers, partly due to design and partly due to discomfort around being unknowingly recorded.

Today’s consumers, however, are more acclimated to cameras in public spaces, and the success of Meta’s more discreet Ray-Ban glasses shows the market may finally be ready for smart eyewear—if it looks good and works well.

The resurgence of interest in smart glasses comes amid a broader push by tech giants to identify the next big hardware platform after the smartphone. Google is also involved in Samsung’s Project Moohan, an AR/VR headset co-developed with Qualcomm, signaling its broader ambitions in the spatial computing space.

Apple is rumored to be working on its own smart glasses, though Bloomberg reports they may not launch until 2027. That gives Google and Meta time to shape the market—and consumer expectations.

While smart glasses are unlikely to replace smartphones overnight, they are becoming a serious contender in the next phase of personal technology. The challenge now is whether Google, this time with the right design and timing, can finally succeed where Google Glass stumbled—and convince the world to put computers on their faces.

Regeneron Acquires 23andMe for $256 Million Amid Bankruptcy

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Regeneron to acquire 23andMe’s assets, including its vast genetic data bank, for $256 million.
– The deal raises significant privacy concerns among customers and regulators.
– Despite bankruptcy, 23andMe’s consumer services will continue under Regeneron’s oversight.

In a major move with wide-reaching implications for healthcare, privacy, and small-cap investors, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals has announced its acquisition of embattled DNA-testing company 23andMe for $256 million. The deal comes as 23andMe, once valued at over $6 billion following its 2021 public debut, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this year after prolonged profitability issues.

The acquisition includes 23andMe’s flagship Personal Genome Service, its Total Health and Research Services businesses, and a massive biobank of consumer genetic data collected over the years. While this trove of genetic information presents an invaluable asset for advancing personalized medicine, it also ignites fresh concerns about consumer privacy, data protection, and ethical oversight.

Regeneron, a major player in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals, has committed to maintaining 23andMe’s existing privacy protections and compliance with applicable laws. A court-appointed ombudsman will oversee the company’s plans for handling consumer data, and Regeneron has pledged transparency and high standards in its management of the sensitive dataset.

“We assure 23andMe customers that we are committed to protecting the 23andMe dataset with our high standards of data privacy, security and ethical oversight and will advance its full potential to improve human health,” said Aris Baras, a senior vice president at Regeneron.

The transaction, expected to close in Q3 2025, ensures that 23andMe’s genome services will continue without interruption. However, many former customers remain uneasy. When the company filed for bankruptcy, California Attorney General Rob Bonta advised users to request deletion of their genetic data and destruction of any physical samples stored by the company.

Despite reassurances from both Regeneron and 23andMe that existing privacy policies—designed to prevent data sharing with employers, insurers, law enforcement, and public databases—will remain in effect, skepticism lingers. This is particularly relevant in an age where genetic data is increasingly valuable for drug development, disease prediction, and targeted therapies.

For small-cap investors, this deal is noteworthy for several reasons. First, it reflects a growing trend of larger pharmaceutical firms acquiring innovative—but financially struggling—startups to bolster their pipelines and data assets. Second, it highlights the inherent volatility and risks associated with investing in biotech startups, especially those that go public with limited monetization strategies.

23andMe’s rise and fall underscore the importance of business sustainability in data-centric healthcare models. Meanwhile, Regeneron’s acquisition offers a potential long-term payoff through access to a highly unique, large-scale genomic dataset that could fuel years of research and development.

Investors will be watching closely how Regeneron integrates 23andMe’s assets and navigates the complex ethical landscape surrounding personal genetic data.

GDEV (GDEV) – Off To A Strong Start

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, May 19, 2025

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $97.0 million and adj. EBITDA of $15.6 million, both of which easily surpassed our estimates of $87.0 million and a loss of $0.6 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q1 Results. Notably, while revenue decreased 9% from last year, adj. EBITDA was up substantially from a loss of roughly $1.0 million. The improvement in adj. EBITDA was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of marketing spend and focus on profitability.

Key operating metrics. Notably, while bookings and monthly paying users decreased by 25% and 26%, respectively, compared to the prior year period, the decrease was largely expected as the company is focused on improving the quality of gameplay and not over-monetizing its user base. For example, average bookings per paying user (ABPPU) increased from $88 in Q1’24 to $90 in Q1’25, despite a decrease in monthly paying users. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Codere Online (CDRO) – Mexican Metrics Drive Favorable Results

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Monday, May 19, 2025

Codere Online refers, collectively, to Codere Online Luxembourg, S.A. and its subsidiaries. Codere Online launched in 2014 as part of the renowned casino operator Codere Group. Codere Online offers online sports betting and online casino through its state-of-the art website and mobile application. Codere currently operates in its core markets of Spain, Italy, Mexico, Colombia, Panama and the City of Buenos Aires (Argentina). Codere Online’s online business is complemented by Codere Group’s physical presence throughout Latin America, forming the foundation of the leading omnichannel gaming and casino presence in the region.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid start to the year. First quarter revenues increased a solid 7.5% to €57.0 million, beating our €55.0 million estimate, in spite of currency headwinds. On a constant currency basis, revenues would have increased a strong 17%. Adj. EBITDA of €1.8 million, was slightly better than our €1.4 million estimate. 

Maintain full year 2025 estimates, tweaking upward 2026 estimates. Management reiterated revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance for the full year 2025. We anticipate that revenues will accelerate to the high single digits to the low double digits in the third and fourth quarter, respectively. We are tweaking upward our full year 2026 revenue and adj. EBITDA estimates on the the favorable momentum in Mexico and prospects for lower marketing spend. 


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

V2X (VVX) – Another Proposed Stock Sale

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, May 19, 2025

V2X builds innovative solutions that integrate physical and digital environments by aligning people, actions, and technology. V2X is embedded in all elements of a critical mission’s lifecycle to enhance readiness, optimize resource management, and boost security. The company provides innovation spanning national security, defense, civilian, and international markets. With a global team of approximately 16,000 professionals, V2X enables mission success by injecting AI and machine learning capabilities to meet today’s toughest challenges across all operational domains.

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Proposed Sale. On Friday, V2X announced AIP, through Vertex Holdco, will sell an additional two million VVX shares on an underwritten basis. The underwriter will have the option to purchase an additional 300,000 shares. V2X is not selling any shares of common stock in the offering, and V2X will not receive any proceeds from the offering by Vertex Aerospace.  The offering is expected to close on or about May 19, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.

Post Sale Ownership. Following the offering, Vertex Aerospace will continue to beneficially own 12,167,286 shares, or approximately 38.4%, of V2X’s outstanding common stock after giving effect to the offering (or 11,867,286 shares, or approximately 37.4%, if the underwriter fully exercises its option to purchase additional shares).


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF) – Merritt Mill Expected to Commence Operations in June

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, May 19, 2025

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Cash flow sources to support operations. Nicola Mining (TSX.V: NIM, OTCQB: HUSIF) is advancing its flagship New Craigmont Copper Project and owns 100% of the past-producing Treasure Mountain high-grade silver, lead, and zinc underground mine with significant exploration potential and an active mining permit. Nicola distinguishes itself by offering investors significant discovery and value creation potential through its exploration activities at New Craigmont and Treasure Mountain while generating cash flows from the Craigmont Mill, which processes ore from third parties, a sand and gravel pit, rock quarry, and ready-mix cement plant. 

A modern mill to serve British Columbia. The Craigmont Mill in Merritt, British Columbia is equipped to process 200 tonnes of ore per day and is authorized for custom milling. Notably, the Merritt Mill is the sole facility in British Columbia permitted to receive and process third-party gold and silver feed from across the province. Nicola has executed Milling and Profit Share Agreements with several key partners, and a sales contract that enables global distribution of gold and silver concentrate.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) – 1Q25 Reported With Phase 2 Results Expected In 4Q25

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, May 19, 2025

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q25 Had Lower Expenses Than We Projected. Eledon reported a loss of $6.5 million or $(0.08) per share, including a gain of $10.1 million related to fair value of warrant liabilities. Without this one-time item, the loss would have been $16.6 million or $(0.21) per share, as Research and Development expense increased less from the previous quarters than we anticipated. We expect R&D to be relatively steady as the Phase 1b and Phase 2 BESTOW trials conclude later in FY2025. Cash on March 31, 2025, was $124.9 million.

Phase 1b Trial Data Expected Mid-Year. The Phase 1b open-label trial is testing an anti-rejection regimen using tegoprubart in kidney transplantation. We see this as important data, since the Phase 2 BESTOW trial is testing this regimen against the standard regimen with tacrolimus. Since historical data for the tacrolimus regimen has been published, we believe the Phase 1b data has some predictive value for the Phase 2 BESTROW trial.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Cocrystal Pharma (COCP) – 1Q25 Reported With Clinical Trial Milestone Updates

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, May 19, 2025

Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biotechnology company discovering and developing novel antiviral therapeutics that target the replication process of influenza viruses, coronaviruses (including SARS-CoV-2), hepatitis C viruses and noroviruses. Cocrystal employs unique structure-based technologies and Nobel Prize-winning expertise to create first- and best-in-class antiviral drugs. For further information about Cocrystal, please visit www.cocrystalpharma.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Fourth Quarter Included New Data On Norovirus Variants. Cocrystal reported a 1Q25 loss of $2.3 million or $(0.23) per share. During the quarter the company announced Phase 1 results from its CDI-988 study in norovirus. Importantly, preclinical data showed efficacy against new norovirus variants. We believe this provides additional support to Cocrystal’s method of targeting highly-conserved viral replication enzymes to make effective drugs against both current and future variants. Cash on March 31, 2025 was $6.9 million.

CDI-988 Activity Includes New Variant Strains. CDI-988 is a protease inhibitor in development for norovirus and corona virus. CDI-988 has shown activity against multiple strains, with new preclinical data in April 2025 showing efficacy against the GII.17 and GII.4 strains that have recently been most prevalent. Results from the Phase 1 high-dose cohort in healthy subjects is expected to be announced in 2Q2025. A human challenge trial is planned for later in FY2025 to evaluate CDI-988 for treatment and prophylaxis against norovirus.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Bit Digital (BTBT) – Reports 1Q25 Results

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com


Monday, May 19, 2025

Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q25 Overview. Bit Digital’s first quarter results were affected by mark-to-market losses on digital assets and lower bitcoin mining revenue, both of which reflected industry-wide headwinds and the strategic rebalancing of the business. The Company continued to make meaningful progress in scaling the infrastructure platform and diversifying revenue streams.

1Q25 Results. Revenue of $25.1 million was down 17% y-o-y as digital asset mining revenue fell 64%, while cloud services revenue jumped 84%. We were at $24.8 million. Driven by $49.3 million of mark-to-market losses on digital assets, Bit Digital reported a net loss of $57.7 million, or $0.32/sh, compared to a loss of $11.9 million, or $0.09/sh, last year. We projected a loss of $13.1 million, or $0.07/sh.


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Equity Research is available at no cost to Registered users of Channelchek. Not a Member? Click ‘Join’ to join the Channelchek Community. There is no cost to register, and we never collect credit card information.

This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

30-Year Treasury Yield Tops 5% as Moody’s Downgrades U.S. Credit Rating

Posted on by slightbourne@noblecapitalmarkets.com
Key Points:
– Moody’s downgrades U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing unsustainable debt and fiscal inaction.
– 30-year Treasury yield briefly rises above 5%, pressuring markets and borrowing costs.
– Investors question long-term safety of U.S. Treasurys as safe-haven assets.

The U.S. bond market was jolted Monday as yields on long-term Treasurys spiked following a downgrade of the nation’s credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly topped 5.03% in early trading—levels not seen since late 2023—before retreating slightly as bond-buying resumed later in the session. The 10-year yield also climbed, reaching 4.497%, while the 2-year note edged close to 4%.

The market reaction came swiftly after Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from the top-tier Aaa to Aa1 on Friday, citing structural fiscal weaknesses and rising debt-servicing costs. The downgrade brings Moody’s in line with other major agencies like Fitch and S&P, which had already lowered their U.S. ratings in recent years.

“This one-notch downgrade reflects the increase over more than a decade in government debt and interest payment ratios to levels that are significantly higher than similarly rated sovereigns,” Moody’s said in its statement.

The move raised alarm bells on Wall Street and in Washington, as investors weighed the implications of higher yields on financial markets, consumer loans, and global confidence in U.S. fiscal management. Long-term Treasury yields directly influence rates on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards—potentially tightening financial conditions for households and businesses.

Markets had already been uneasy following policy uncertainty in Washington. The latest trigger: a sweeping tax and spending bill backed by House Republicans and the Trump administration is advancing through Congress, raising concerns it will further balloon the deficit. Analysts estimate the legislation could add trillions to the debt over the next decade, worsening the very conditions that prompted Moody’s downgrade.

“This is a major symbolic move as Moody’s was the last of the big three rating agencies to keep the U.S. at the top rating,” Deutsche Bank analysts noted in a client memo. “It reinforces the narrative of long-term fiscal erosion.”

Moody’s also warned that neither party in Congress has offered a realistic plan to reverse the U.S.’s deficit trajectory, with high interest payments now compounding the debt burden. “We do not believe that material multi-year reductions in mandatory spending and deficits will result from current fiscal proposals,” the agency stated bluntly.

Meanwhile, investors are beginning to reevaluate the role of U.S. Treasurys as the world’s go-to safe-haven asset. The combination of mounting debt, political dysfunction, and now credit downgrades raises new questions about their long-term reliability.

While yields retreated slightly by midday as bargain hunters stepped in, the message from the market was clear: America’s fiscal credibility is under scrutiny, and investors are demanding higher compensation to lend long-term.

For small-cap and individual investors, rising yields can translate into greater borrowing costs, tighter capital access, and increased market volatility—all of which could ripple through equities in the weeks ahead.