Author: phoffman@channelchek.com

Unhyped Information to Improve Investment Success

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Retail Traders Looking in the Right Place, Never Had it So Good

Do you feel like every time you buy a stock, it goes down? You’re not alone, it’s a common complaint. Yet there’s a large universe of industries, companies, and ideas to choose to invest in. And at the same time, a flood of people who make a living telling you where you should invest. So why do so many investors buy after a run-up, perhaps even at the high, then watch their holdings languish?

Part of the problem may be in how the self-directed investor, consumes information. Watching investment news, digesting a fast-talking influencer’s words, or being told which moving average to rely on is, at best a good start to knowing what the masses are seeing, but taking time away from the hype, and absorbing well-presented material, data, and other information will provide a better look at companies in a way that could help prevent the late-in-the-trade buys that retail investors are known for.

Multiple Sources of Investment Information

When it comes to making investment decisions, the probability of success should increase if you take a look from different angles by using a few sources of trusted information. Beginner investors learn quickly that, if success was as easy as just buying your favorite TV stock pickers love of day, viewers of shows like Mad Money on CNBS would all be rich. It clearly doesn’t work that way.

But if you’re not prone to acting on hype, watching stockpickers fall in and out of love, every show is entertaining. If you are prone to hype, as most humans are, you have to be suspicious of anyone who has to come up with a stock or two for each show (or article). Then speak or write about it with a convincing and engaging style. Keep in mind, viewers or readers are their customers, they lose customers if they’re boring, they gain customers by instilling hope. Yet, as a person who managed billions in institutional funds, I can attest to you that most days, it is best to sit on your hands, monitor your current holdings, and keep scouring resources for high-probability stocks to watch.

Celebrity CEOs

Another problem with mainstream media’s financial news is the coverage universe is typically only familiar household names. You can turn on Fox Business, read the Wall Street Journal, or even Yahoo Finance and expect that on any given day there will be information on Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft, and they’ll be highlighting celebrity CEOs of similar companies. As mentioned earlier, there is a large universe of stocks to choose from. If the only stocks that have your attention are the huge names, largely held by funds and transacted by Wall Street’s most powerful, you could be in the same position you’d be in if you came down from the stands at a pro basketball game and played for a couple of quarters. You’re considered lucky if you put any points on the board.

Broadening your watchlist stocks to include companies that you have to search for, because they aren’t hyped, may include making a few additions to your stock market news, information, and analysis regimen.

News Information and Analysis

In addition to the traditional sources for investment ideas, including TV market analysts, stock picking columnists, and any paid-for advertorial seen on even big name financial websites and publications. You may wish to explore lesser-known companies and review emotionless equity investment research. Outside of stock research, you may find an appealing company you never heard of by viewing videos that invite you to “Meet the CEO” and listen to someone who knows the company better than anyone. If you’re in a metropolitan area, you may get on an email list to see what roadshows are within driving distance so you can attend and better understand an opportunity. Investors who aren’t near financial hubs that attract roadshows can still benefit from face-to-face presentations, including questions and answers at an investor conference geared toward their interests.

Investment Research

Receiving up-to-date research from analysts that never forget they have a reputation to maintain used to be difficult for retail investors. It was expensive to subscribe to financial firms’ research, and with good reason. Large investor’s could afford it because they stood to benefit most from the insights, justifying the cost. And the firm doing the research and setting the price was justified because maintaining a staff of analysts is expensive. But it kept a lot of good info from smaller players. This has evolved recently and become more fair.

The availability of quality stock research began to fall off last decade as regulatory bodies began making rules on who can provide valuable research, based on financial licenses, company registrations, and compensation arrangements.

Equity research that was once paid for by subscribers, has now taken a similar path as “free” trading apps. Retail customers, or institutional are not the ones paying for it, in many cases, the company that wants to be evaluated is. This is called company-sponsored research or CSR.

There are a number of firms that now provide this investor service, Channelchek, with the expertise of the equity analysts at Noble Capital Markets, is the largest provider of CSR in North America.

So no hype investment research is available, and more companies are recognizing how it helps interest in their stock if investors have trusted sources evaluating their business.

Video Presentations

While it isn’t hard to find the CEO of Tesla or many other mega-cap companies talking about their plans, the CEO’s of the thousands of less celebrated, often higher potential, companies have to be sought out and there has to be a means to understand their plans, ideas, and expectations. Technology has helped solve some of this. In fact YouTube and similar platforms has opened the floodgates to information on everything from fixing your air conditioner, to how to braid hair. While there are many video presentations best avoided, presentations direct from company management, in a six months or younger video, can provide tremendous insight, and confidence to pull the buy trigger, or even confidence to decide not to.

A large selection of content of this type can be found in Channelchek’s Video Library.  

In-Person Roadshows

A roadshow is essentially management of a company, getting out of their office and meeting in different towns with investors. This could be done individually, perhaps at a financial institutions office, or in a reserved area in a public restaurant or other venue. This is particularly interesting as not only do investors get to look the person presenting directly in the eye, they benefit from questions being asked from all the other interested investors – they often have a great question you hadn’t thought of.

While every firm that conducts road shows has its own way of getting the word out, Noble Capital Markets organized roadshows list their calendar of roadshows on Channelchek.

Investment Conferences

While roadshows are great if it’s a company you want to hear from, and if it is convenient, a conference with many interesting companies, and perhaps in a vacation destination, can really help investors in a few short days hear many management presentations, ask questions and listen to other’s questions, and meet and network with investors of all levels. These events tend to be held in vacation destinations, so self-directed investors tend to bring family members, and professionals can spend a productive day of work enjoying a beautiful change of scenery.

I won’t even try to hide that I have a favorite conference.

Each year Noble Capital Markets puts on a popular two or three day investor event called NobleCon. Now in its 19th year, it attracts companies with interesting stories and business models from various industries, and professional and retail investors from three continents.

Now in its 19th year, NobleCon19 will be held in Late Fall 2023. The plans are pretty hush, but the opportunities for presenting companies and those looking to enhance their portfolios, I’m told, will be even greater than previous NobleCons. That’s a high hurdle.

Take Away

Understanding that the person on TV saying a stock is a buy, sell, or hold is, in a way, part of a reality TV show that needs to entertain to retain an audience, could improve your investment performance. Much of what is written is the same. Frankly, most days, there is little or nothing worth acting on, but they aren’t going to tell you this – it’s just not in their best career interest.

Alternative sources of ideas and information involve less hype and include, company- sponsored research, management discussions on video, roadshows, and investment conferences.

Most years there are many opportunities, most of these are under the radar companies that, even after they do well, are still under the radar. The ability to find these companies is becoming easier to all investors, but not if they are not looking for it.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Copper Market Poised for Unprecedented Growth

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

New Projections for Copper Demand High, Price Seen as Still “Muted”

The copper market could see an “unprecedented” inflow in the coming years as investors seek to profit from the metal’s anticipated surge in value, driven by growing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy, according to Citigroup.

In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Max Layton, Citi’s managing director for commodities research, said he believes now is an ideal time for investors to buy, as the price of copper is still muted on global recession concerns. The red metal is currently trading around $8,300 a ton, down approximately 26% from its all-time high of nearly $11,300, set in October 2021.

According to Layton, copper could top out at $15,000 a ton by 2025, a jump that would “make oil’s 2008 bull run look like child’s play.”

Citi also pointed out that copper may dip further in the short-term but could begin to rally in the next six to 12 months as the market fully recognizes the massive imbalance between supply and demand, a gap that’s expected to widen as demand for EVs and renewables expands.

This article was republished with permission from Frank Talk, a CEO Blog by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors (GROW).

Find more of Frank’s articles here – Originally published June 12, 2023.

Internal Combustion Vehicle Sales Set To Peak This Decade: BloombergNEF

As I’ve mentioned before, electric vehicles (EVs) require up to three times more copper compared to traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. This presents a challenge because the number of newly discovered copper deposits is decreasing, and the time it takes to go from discovery to production has been increasing due to rising costs. According to S&P Global, out of the 224 copper deposits found between 1990 and 2019, only 16 have been discovered in the last decade.

Meanwhile, EV sales continue to rise. Last year, these sales reached a total of 10.5 million, and projections by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) suggest that they could escalate to around 27 million by 2026. Bloomberg predicts that the global fleet of ICE vehicles will peak in as little as two years, after which the market will be dominated primarily by EVs and, to a lesser extent, hybrids. By 2030, EVs might constitute 44% of all passenger vehicle sales, and by 2040, three could account for three quarters of all vehicle sales.

Tesla Stock Supported By String Of Positive News

Tesla, which remains the world’s largest EV manufacturer, has seen its stock increase over 100% year-to-date in 2023, making it the third best performer in the S&P 500, following NVIDIA (+166%) and Meta (120%). In fact, shares of Tesla have now fully recovered (and then some) from October 2022, when CEO Elon Musk purchased Twitter for $44 billion. This raised concerns among investors about Musk’s ability to run the EV manufacturer while taking on a new, time-intensive project, not to mention also juggling SpaceX.

Friday marked the 12th straight day that shares of Tesla have advanced, representing a remarkable winning streak that we haven’t seen since January 2021.

The Austin-based carmaker got a huge boost last week after it announced that its popular Model 3 now qualifies for a $7,500 EV consumer tax credit. This action means that in California, which applies its own $7,500 tax rebate for EV purchases, a brand new Tesla Model S is cheaper than a Toyota Camry.

To qualify for the U.S. tax credit, Tesla had to make changes to how it sourced materials for its batteries in accordance with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law in August 2022. The IRA stipulates that 40% of electric vehicle battery materials and components must be extracted or processed in the U.S. or in a country that has a free trade agreement with the U.S. This manufacturing threshold will increase annually, and by 2027, 80% of the battery must be produced in the U.S. or a partner country to qualify for the full rebate.

Tesla stock also benefited from last Thursday’s announcement that drivers of EVs made by rival General Motors (GM) would be able to use Tesla’s North American supercharger network starting next year. The deal not only gives GM customers access to an additional 12,000 charging stations across the continent, but it also vastly increases Tesla’s market share of the essential charging infrastructure.

Musk’s Copper Quest

Thinking ahead, Musk reportedly met virtually last month with L. Oyun-Erdene, prime minister of Mongolia. The details of their discussion were not fully disclosed, but it’s worth pointing out that Mongolia is a copper-rich country, home to the world’s fourth-largest copper mine, operated jointly by Rio Tinto and the Mongolian government. In May, Rio Tinto announced that production had finally begun at the mine, which sits 1.3 kilometers (0.8 miles) below the Gobi Desert.

With access to this copper, perhaps Tesla is planning to build a metals processing plant in Mongolia? This would make sense, as the company maintains a factory in Shanghai, China.

US Global Investors Disclaimer

Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03/31/2023): Tesla Inc.

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. By clicking the link(s) above, you will be directed to a third-party website(s). U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by this/these website(s) and is not responsible for its/their content.

June’s FOMC Announcement Shows No Immediate Change, But Expects More Hikes

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Source: Federal Reserve (Flickr)

The FOMC Left Policy the Same in June, But Became More Hawkish

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to hold its target rate steady on overnight interest rates at  5.00% – 5.25% after the June 2023 meeting. This is considered a pause, not a halt to a hawkish stance as indicated by the post-meeting announcement. The announcement indicated FOMC members, on average, expect Fed Funds to be 50bp higher by year-end. This could come about as two 25bp moves. The lack of policy shift was in overnight bank lending rates and the quantitative tightening cycle previously announced. However, a slightly more hawkish Fed includes statements that are more certain that rates will still be pushed up, and member projections of where funds will be at year-end, which include one member seeing as high as 6.25% for the first time.

The vote was unanimous.

The minutes discuss that indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a modest pace. Job gains have been robust in recently, and the unemployment rate has remained low. However, they are concerned that inflation remains well above its targeted range.

After the meeting, the Fed says it believes the U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. They expect tighter household and business credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain.

“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent,” according to the Fed’s announcement. “Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy,” it continued.

 The Fed indicated that it will continue to assess “incoming information for the economic outlook.” The FOMC’s said its assessments will take into account readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, financial and international developments, as well as other data.

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), relative to previous meetings, makes clear that Fed members are on average expecting to have to do more to combat inflation tan they had previously forecast.

Image: June’s SEP

Fed Chair Powell generally shares more thoughts on the matter during a press conference beginning at 2:30 PM EST after the statement.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Source

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents.htm

Which Stocks are Most Impacted by Changing Interest Rates?

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Why Interest Rates Impact Large and Small Company Profits Differently

Small-cap stocks are less sensitive to interest rate changes than large-cap stocks. Generally, when interest rates rise, it can create a bigger drag on larger companies for a number of reasons. Meanwhile, companies with small market caps are unaffected or less affected on average. While there are many factors that impact stock prices, interest rates are certainly on the list – depending on company size, rates will impact them differently.

Interest rates have moved quite a bit over the past 18 months, and they aren’t expected to stabilize now. Here are some of the stock market dynamics at play.

Revenues and Costs

Small-cap companies typically have less debt than large-cap companies. This means that they are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, as the cost of borrowing does not affect them as much as  big borrowers when rates rise.

The main reason for lower debt levels is they typically have less ability to borrow through the capital markets. Smaller or less established companies in general find the cost of issuing a public market note as being behigher than the benefits. And since rising interest rates, increase the cost of borrowing, small-cap companies are not rolling large amounts of debt at the new interest rate levels. Whereas debt is often a much larger part of big company’s overall strategy and cost of capital.

It also helps that small market-cap companies are often in industries that are less sensitive to the overall economy. If rates are rising, fears of a recession often creep into investor’s mindsets. For example, smaller technology and life sciences companies are, by comparison, less sensitive to economic cycles than cyclical industries such as large manufacturing and big oil. Put another way, many smaller companies are more focused on discovery, innovation and growth, these are not as dependent on economic conditions.

However, small-cap investors should be aware that small-caps are often more volatile than large-caps. So the investor can experience larger swings in price, both up and down. This can make this investment sector more attractive to investors who are looking for growth potential, but it can also make them more risky. If they have lower trade volume, there are fewer buyers and sellers, making it more likely for prices to move up or down.

Larger companies tend to be international in their business dealings, compared to domestic small-cap companies which more commonly transact within their home-base country. For the US, an increase in interest rates relative to other nations, is likely to lead to a stronger $US dollar. A stronger US dollar makes the cost of goods sold overseas more expensive to buyers. This could lower sales expectations as overseas buyers find other suppliers. Small companies operating domestically do not have to worry about foreign exchange rates and how they are impacted by interest rate movements.

It is important to note that interest rate changes can impact all stocks, regardless of their size. The impact of interest rate changes on a particular stock will depend on a number of factors, including the company’s debt load, its industry, and its overall financial health. Overall, small-cap stocks are less sensitive to interest rate changes than large-cap stocks, but investors can expect more volatility.

Market-cap Sector Rotation

Sector rotation is the process of money moving from one stock market sector to another, based on expectations of which sectors will perform better in the future. This could be industry, types of securities (ie: bonds, real estate), or market cap.

As it relates to market cap, an investor might sell large-cap stocks and buy small-cap stocks if they believe that small-cap stocks are undervalued and are poised to outperform large-cap stocks in the future.

It can help you to stay ahead of the market. By monitoring sector performance and making changes to your portfolio accordingly, you can stay ahead of the market and make sure that your money is invested in the sectors that are most likely to perform well.

Take Away

There are many different groupings of stocks (market-cap, industry, international, region, etc.) and factors that can impact the group. One factor that has historically played a part in price discovery of small versus large-cap stocks is interest rate movements. Interest rates impact the cost of doing business and also sales. Investors add this into the myriad of other factors they try to be aware of when selecting stocks.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Will 2023 Be the Summer of Small-Cap Stocks?

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The Mid-Year Sector Rotation is Benefitting Small-Cap Investors

“This time is different” is a saying often used in investing, usually just before the investor does something that they will soon regret. I say “regret” because, although the timing of patterns that have repeated themselves time and time again may change, well-entrenched investment rules very rarely change.

Over the past year, what I have perceived as undervalued stocks – coincidentally, all companies with a small market cap – have been prominently placed on my stocks watchlist.   While last year was a bad year for most of the market, these underperformed during that down market. So, they became even cheaper. I fully expected the stocks to eventually get investor attention and begin to move upwaard – in fact, I have had reason to believe this for a while of the small-cap sector in general.

While these watchlist stocks, in my mind, became even better values, I never told myself the market may have fundamentally changed, which would mean small caps will no longer be the relied-upon outperformers over time, as they have been historically. I did not think that “this time it might be different.”

Based on the two major small-cap indexes stellar performance so far this June, and a couple of my watchlist stock’s movements, my long wait may have been worthwhile and may soon be replaced by action.

Source: Koyfin

S&P 600 & Russell 2000 Indexes

Small-cap stocks have certainly turned up the heat so far in June. What’s more, is the larger indexes would seem to be losing steam as they have run so far for so long that, unless this time is different, they may be due for a retrenchment.

The renewed enthusiasm for the smaller and perhaps riskier stocks, over large caps, with businesses that tend to be more diversified, have deeper pockets, and more overall resources, is likely based on a number of normal factors. Smaller companies tend to operate leaner, so a higher percentage of revenue can flow to the bottom line in a growing economy. The two-week-old rally comes as many cyclical stocks, and industries that do best in a growing economy are springing to life, especially since the debt ceiling negotiations have been resolved, the banking system is seen as out of trouble, and the Fed has broken records in its tightening pace yet still unemployment is low.

The reduced clouds on the horizon and higher multiples of large-cap stocks seem to have given investors motivation to move to small cap stocks with lower multiples, and with less fear of the economy falling apart any time soon.

Investors are rotating into companies with lower market caps. Looking above at the two small-cap indexes, the S&P 600 (IJS as a proxy) is low in tech stocks that are heavily weighted in the worse-performing indexes. Financials and industrials make up 34% (tech is just 14%) of the S&P 600 Small-caps. The S&P 600 is up 8.87% so far in June compared to the large cap S&P 500 which only gained half as much. The Russell 2000 Small-cap Index is up 8.55% so far in June. This is also the month when investors watch the Russell Reconstitution, which is the rebalancing of the Russell 3000, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 index based on remeasuring market-caps on the top 3000 stocks. There will be a great deal of attention to the reshuffling come the last Friday of the month.

Take Away

Is it different this time? Are small cap stocks going to play catch up as investors, hungry for value, and growing concerned that larger companies may be overvalued, and an overall increased comfort level that fewer dangers loom on the economic horizon, rotate some assets there? They have whetted their appetite, if the outperformance continues, I suspect they may go back for seconds, then others might join.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.economist.com/media/pdf/this-time-is-different-reinhart-e.pdf

https://www.barrons.com/articles/small-cap-stocks-apple-big-tech-9d3b5669

Pause, Pivot, or Push Higher – What to Review After the FOMC Announcement

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

The FOMC Member’s Change in Sentiment is a Big Focus

Whether the Fed moves rates up after the June FOMC or not could mean little to whether there is additional drag on the economy. The short end of the yield curve, where savers benefit, has risen each time the Fed has raised rates. Out further, the 10-year T-Note, which is the benchmark for 30-year mortgages and from which corporate 10-year notes are spread, has been remarkably steady. Nine months ago, when Fed Funds were 3.00%- 3.25%, the 10-Year Treasury yielded 3.76%. Today the Fed Funds target rate is 5.00-5.25%, the 10-Year is still at 3.76%. This may be why the Fed has had a difficult time reeling in inflation, longer interest rates, where they impact the economy most, had reached 4.25% last October, the Fed has since tightened 200bp, and 10-year rates have traded around 50 bp lower     since the October high, despite the tightening. And for the same reason, mortgage rates are lower now than they were last October.

Summary Of Economic Projections

More meaningful for market participants might be the Summary of Economiuc Projections (SEP). Outside of a normal knee-jerk reaction after Wednesday’s policy announcement, or a quick trade that can be had off Powell’s press conference remarks, what the Fed members now expect by year-end is a better indication of any new mindset on monetary policy.  

The Summary of Economic Projections includes estimates from the FOMC members showing where they see rates at the end of 2023 (and beyond). At the March meeting (see below), most of the Fed policymakers saw rates staying at current levels, with a few signaling additional hikes may be coming. While Powell will answer questions at the press conference that may be indicative of what they are thinking, the change in the SEP numbers (released in the statement after the meeting) is a better indicator of whether the Fed is now more hawkish or dovish.

Source:  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

A big shift toward expectations of higher rates would indicate a more hawkish stance. It will be useful to note how projections have evolved compared to March – Chair Powell will, of course, provide further color through his press conference.

Pause, Pivot, or Push Higher

Has the view changed with recent economic data? Was the view in March skewed by what could have turned into a banking crisis? We’ll see in hard numbers, without reading between any lines. We can see in black and white what the aggregate thinking is of the members when behind closed doors, where the important discussions happen – inside the FOMC meeting room.

After the announcement, Channelchek subscribers will receive a summary in their email of the announcement, changes in language from previous meetings, and the new SEP to compare any change in sentiment (subscribe at no cost).

While the actual impact on the overall economy of a 25bp move compared to a Fed pause may have little impact on the economy, company earnings, or even Treasury Bonds, each time the Fed raises overnight rates, there are investors that are more comfortable with a larger allocation of cash. Depending on where “uninvested” assets are held, they may be earning near 5%. This is a risk to stock prices as some investors may find be comfortable with money market returns for a larger portion of their portfolios. Fewer assets in the stock market have a depressing effect on prices.

Take Away

While pre and post-Fed meeting investor conversations tend to swirl around words like, “pause”, “pivot”, and “tighten”, the Fed’s overall change in rate expectations, which they have the most control over, is more telling than any polished statement or press briefing. These numbers are on the SEP report.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://ycharts.com/indicators/10_year_treasury_rate

Why a Recent Housing Survey Returned Such Extreme Results

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Home Buying Versus Home Selling Conditions

The underlying dynamics of the housing market are not what one might expect. Especially with home prices still near its peak after mortgage rates more than doubled over the past year and a half. One of the unique nuances of today’s housing market is what some are calling the “golden handcuffs” that may apply to anyone who has a home with a mortgage of 3.5% or lower. These owners are slow to sell; this is keeping a supply of homes off the market. The lack of homes for sale is keeping prices up despite the higher cost of borrowing. As witnessed in a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae, the attitudes of adults in the U.S., as it relates to buying, or selling, are fairly extreme, with many of the survey responses hit all-time highs and lows in terms of expectations.

Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey

The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly temperature check of attitudes among the general population related to home-owning, renting, household finances, and confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions; this makes the survey far more detailed than other measures of housing attitudes or expectations. Six of the questions are used to derive the Home Purchasing Sentiment Index (HPSI).

The overall economy typically benefits from housing turnover, as new buyers decorate and make a house, or condo, a home.

Below is the noteworthy response data from the six questions Fannie Mae uses for its index.

Home Purchase Sentiment Index  (HPSI)

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) decreased in May by 1.2 points to 65.6. The HPSI is down 2.6 points compared to the same time last year.

Below are the May statistics on some of the most relevant questions.

Good/Bad Time to Buy:

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased from 23% to 19%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy increased from 77% to 80%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy decreased by 7 percentage points month over month.

Good/Bad Time to Sell:

The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home increased from 62% to 65%, while the percentage who say it’s a bad time to sell decreased from 38% to 34%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell increased 8 percentage points month over month.

Source: Fannie Mae NHS Data Release

Home Price Expectations:

The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months increased from 37% to 39%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 32% to 28%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 31% to 33%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up increased 6 percentage points month over month.

Mortgage Rate Expectations:

The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 22% to 19%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up increased from 47% to 50%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same remained unchanged at 31%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased five percentage points month over month.

Job Loss Concern:

The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months decreased from 79% to 77%, while the percentage who say they are concerned increased from 21% to 22%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased three percentage points month over month.

Household Income:

The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 24% to 20%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower increased from 11% to 12%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 64% to 67%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased five percentage points month over month.

Spring is typically a time when people look to buy homes. With summer less than two weeks away, many who might have purchased a new home opted to wait, or could not find what they were looking for. “As we near the end of the spring homebuying season, the latest HPSI results indicate that affordability hurdles, including high home prices and mortgage rates, remain top of mind for consumers, most of whom continue to tell us that it’s a bad time to buy a home but a good time to sell one,” said Mark Palim, Fannie Mae Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist.

“Consumers also indicated that they don’t expect these affordability constraints to improve in the near future, with significant majorities thinking that both home prices and mortgage rates will either increase or remain the same over the next year. Notably, the same factors impacting affordability may also be affecting the perceived ease of getting a mortgage. This was particularly true among renters: 81% believe it would be difficult to get a mortgage today, matching a survey high,” according to Palim.

Take Away

Consumers don’t expect housing affordability to improve anytime soon. At the same time, and for related reasons, rents have increased. As with most markets, one would expect if the buyers step back, prices might come down in response. An odd dynamic at play now, though, is that many people that are in a home, are staying put because moving might mean saying goodbye to a mortgage rate near 3% and then having to secure one that is nearly five percentage points higher.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Biotech Companies to Benefit from AI Efficiencies and Analysis

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Enabling Better Drug Discovery Outcomes with Machine Learning

Can the long road to bring new medical treatments or therapies to market be shortened by introducing artificial intelligence? AI applied to the early stage of the discovery process, which often involves new insight into a disease or treatment mechanism, may soon provide researchers many more potential candidates or designs to evaluate. AI can also help in the sorting and evaluation of these candidates to improve the success rates of those that make it into the lab for further study.

Benefits AI Brings to Biotech Research

The cost of bringing a single drug to market in terms of time and money is substantial. Estimates are in the $2.8 billion range, and the average timeline for drug development exceeds a decade. On top of this, there is a low level of certainty of taking a promising molecule all the way to market. The success rate of translating preclinical research findings into effective clinical treatments is low; failure rates are estimated to be around 90%.

The refinement of digital sorting and calculating with advanced computational technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), have the potential to revolutionize pharmaceutical research and development (R&D). Despite it still being a young technology, AI-enabled applications and algorithms are already making an impact in drug discovery and development processes.

One of the significant benefits of ML in drug development is its ability to recognize patterns and unveil insights that might be missed by conventional data analysis or take substantially less time to recognize. AI, and ML technologies can help a biotech company do precursory evaluation, accelerate the design and testing of molecules, streamline the testing processes, and provide a faster understanding along the way if the molecule will perform as expected. With improved clinical success and reduced costs throughout the development pipeline, AI may be shot in the arm the industry needs.

Adoption of AI in Biotechnology

While any full-scale adoption of AI in the pharmaceutical industry is still evolving and finding its place, implementation and investment are growing. Top global pharmaceutical companies have increased their R&D investment in AI by nearly 25% over the past three years – this indicates a recognition of the perceived benefits.

The interest and investment in AI drug discovery is fueled by several factors. As touched on earlier, a more efficient and cost-effective drug development process would be of great benefit. AI can significantly reduce both time and cost. And the sooner more effective treatments are available, the better. Chronic diseases, such as cancer, autoimmune problems, neurological disorders, and cardiovascular diseases, creates an ongoing demand for improved drugs and therapies. AI’s ability to analyze vast amounts of data, identify patterns, and then learn from the information at an accelerated rate can allow researchers to shorten timelines to final conclusions.  

Even more exciting is the growing availability of large datasets thanks to the rise of big data. With an increase in the volume, variety and velocity of data, and the AI-assisted ability to make sense of it, outcomes are expected to be improved. These datasets, obtained from various sources like electronic medical records and genomic databases, allow successful AI applications in drug discovery. Technological advancements, especially in ML algorithms, have been contributing to the growth of AI in medicine. And they are growing more sophisticated, allowing for accurate pattern identification in complex biological systems. Collaborations between academia, industry, and government agencies have further accelerated growth sharing knowledge and resources.

Trends in AI and ML Biotechnology

While considered a young technological field, AI-enabled drug discovery is being shaped by a number of new trends and technologies. Modern AI algorithms are now capable of analyzing intricate biological systems and foretelling the effects of medications on human cells and tissues. By detecting probable adverse effects early on in the development phase, the predictive ability helps prevent failures in the later stages.

By generating candidates that fit certain requirements, generative models can accelerate the design of completely new medications. But other technology is also now available to assist. By offering scalable processing resources, cloud computing dramatically cuts down on both time and expense. By simulating the interaction of hundreds of chemicals with disease targets, virtual drug screening enables the fast screening of drugs.

A higher understanding of disease biology and the discovery of new therapeutic targets is being made possible by integrative techniques that incorporate many data sources not available a short while ago.

Constraints on AI-Assisted Biotech Research

While AI can speed up certain aspects of drug discovery, it cannot replace most traditional lab testing. Hands-on experimentation and data collection on living organisms are expected to always be necessary, many of these processes during the clinical trial stages cannot be sped up.

Regulatory bodies, like the FDA, are also cautious about embracing AI fully, raising concerns about transparency and accountability in decision-making processes.

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Take Away

The near future of artificial intelligence and machine learning assuming a larger role in enabling drug discovery and more efficient R&D looks bright. The technology offers real promise for more efficient and cost-effective drug development processes – this would address the need for new therapies for chronic diseases.

The time-consuming process of testing on real subjects is not expected to be replaced or overly streamlined by technology, but finding subjects and evaluating results can also benefit from the new technology.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://5058440.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/5058440/cold%20outreach%20use%20case%20images/Pathways%20for%20Successful%20AI%20Adoption%20in%20Drug%20Development%20-%20VeriSIM%20Life.pdf

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/ai-in-biopharma-research-a-time-to-focus-and-scale

https://www.drugdiscoveryonline.com/doc/the-global-market-for-ai-in-drug-discovery-to-sextuple-by-0001

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/life-sciences/our-insights/we-can-invent-new-biology-molly-gibson-on-the-power-of-ai

https://www.fda.gov/patients/learn-about-drug-and-device-approvals/drug-development-process

The Week Ahead –  FOMC Meet, Quadruple Witching Hour, Consumer Inflation

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

This Week’s Events are Sure to Keep Investors on Their Toes

I wouldn’t want to be Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week. The June 13-14 FOMC meeting may be the first meeting of the Committee that sets monetary policy, since January 2022, when a tightening of monetary targets doesn’t occur. The decision will come down to the wire as very important inflation data won’t be released until the first day of the meeting on Tuesday. While most on the Committee have expressed seeing current inflation data as problematic, there usually is a delay between when the Fed first alters policy, and the impact it creates.


Whether the Fed again acts to slow the economy, or takes a breather, announced at 2:00 on Wednesday, Powell will face reporters having to explain the Fed’s action or inaction. With likely less personal conviction than at previous press briefings, his responses may be more general than usual.

Monday 6/12


• 2:00 PM ET, The Treasury Statement is the U.S. Treasury’s release of a monthly accounting of the surplus or deficit of the government. Changes in the budget balance reflect Federal policy on spending and taxation. Forecasters see a $205.0 billion deficit in May that would compare with a $66.2 billion deficit in May one year ago, and a surplus of $176.2 billion in April this year.

Tuesday 6/13


• The June FOMC Meeting begins day one of two.


• 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index has been below the historical average of 98 for the past 16 months in a row. May’s consensus is for a decline to 88.4 versus 89.0 in April.


• 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index this month could move markets significantly if there is a significant change in the data from the previous month. Core price increases in May are not expected to have slowed. They are expected to keep their pace of April’s 0.4 percent monthly increase. The core’s year-over-year rate is seen easing to 5.3 from 5.5 percent. Overall price increases are expected to halve to 0.2 percent on the month from 0.4 percent and 4.1 percent on the year from 4.9 percent.

Wednesday 6/14

• 8:30 PM ET, The Producer Price Index – Final Demand number is another important inflation index that the FOMC members may want to peak at before voting Wednesday on any policy shift. After rising 0.2 percent in April, producer prices in May are expected to fall 0.1 percent. The annual rate in May is seen at 1.6 percent versus April’s plus 2.3 percent. May’s ex-food ex-energy rate is seen up 0.2 percent on the month and up 2.9 percent on the year, matching April’s 0.2 percent monthly rise and just below the month’s 3.2 percent yearly rate.


• 10:30 AM ET, The Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be providing its scheduled weekly information on petroleum inventories, whether produced in the US or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.


• 2:00 PM ET, The FOMC Announcement is when the world gets to learn what the Fed decision is on interest rates, and why.


• 2:30 PM ET, The FOMC Chair press briefing provides additional context to the just announced direction of the FOMC’s policy decision. The questions and answers with the media can shed far more light of the intentions of the Committee than the carefully worded statement released at 2PM.

Thursday 6/15


• 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the June 10 week are expected to ease back to 250,000 versus the prior week’s large 28,000 jobs jump to 261,000. This has been a very closely watched report. If as expected, it would indicate the Fed has room to tighten further if other data remain strong.


• 8:30 AM ET, May Retail Sales are expected to be unchanged, matching April’s 0.4 percent rise.


• 8:30 PM ET, The Philadelphia Fed (Philly Fed) manufacturing index has been in contraction for the last ten reports. At minus 10.4 in May, with June’s consensus is at minus 13.2.


• 9:15 PM ET, Industrial Production is expected to push 0.1 percent higher in May after April’s 0.5 percent increase that was boosted by manufacturing output which jumped a surprising 1.0 percent. Manufacturing in May is seen up 0.2 percent.


• 4:30 PM ET, The Fed’s Balance Sheet is a weekly report presenting a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks that lists factors supplying reserves into the banking system and factors absorbing reserves from the system. This has ben getting more attention as it indicates if the fed is on track with its announced quantitative tightening and if any bank borrowing has dramatically increased.

Friday 6/16


• 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment will be the first indication for June. It fell by 4.3 points to 59.2 last month, it is expected to inch up and report 60.5.


• Quadruple Witching is a phrase used to refer to the expiration of four different derivative contracts: Stock index futures, Stock index options, Single-stock options, Single-stock futures. Quadruple witching happens four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. It is a time of heightened volatility in the markets, as traders adjust their positions in anticipation of the expiration of these contracts.

What Else


The key factors that the Fed will consider when making its decision are the pace and trend of economic growth, the level of inflation, the strength of the labor market, and the risk of recession.
Additionally, the FOMC will have to determine if the moves to date will have a more substantial impact if allowed to have more time to have an impact.


While OPEC is cutting output and it seems like we are on a path of oil and natural gas prices again inching up, Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF), an enviable gas company, headquartered in Canada, operating in Brazil, will be conducting roadshows in New York and St. Louis. Learn more about attending here.
Paul Hoffman
Managing Editor, Channelchek

What is the Espionage Act? –  A Nuts and Bolts Description

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Understanding the US Espionage Act of 1917

This month marks the 106th anniversary of the Espionage Act. Enacted on June 15, 1917, just a couple of months after the United States entered WWI. While the Act is not specifically related to stocks and other investments, discussions of the Espionage Act may, at times, overtake the news and even distract market players or potentially drive market mood. So it is best to have an accurate understanding of the components. The Espionage Act is a federal law that criminalizes spying and other activities that could be harmful to US national security. The variations and intricacies involve spying for foreign governments, leaking classified information, obstructing selective service, and using the US Postal Service to promote interests counter to those of the USA.

The Espionage Act Sections

The Act has five main sections:

Section 792: This section prohibits gathering or transmitting defense information with the intent or reason to believe that the information may be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation.

Section 793: This section prohibits gathering or transmitting classified information with the intent or reason to believe that the information may be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation.

Section 794: This section prohibits delivering defense information to a foreign government or to a person who is not entitled to receive it.

Section 795: This section prohibits photographing or sketching defense installations without permission.

Section 798: This section prohibits disclosing classified information to unauthorized persons.

The Espionage Act Uses

The Espionage Act has been used to prosecute a wide range of offenses, including leaking information, recruiting spies, and creating disobedience among military ranks.  

Espionage: Espionage is the act of spying for a foreign government. Espionage can involve gathering or transmitting classified information, or it can involve recruiting or assisting spies.

Leaking Classified Information: Leaking classified information is the act of disclosing classified information to unauthorized persons. Leaking can be done intentionally or unintentionally.

Inciting insubordination in the military: Inciting insubordination in the military is the act or behavior of encouraging military personnel to disobey orders. This can be done by spreading rumors, making false statements, or even simply providing material support to those who are planning to disobey orders.

The Espionage Act is a powerful tool that can be used to protect national security. However, the law has also been criticized for its potential to infringe on First Amendment rights. The Espionage Act has been challenged in court on several occasions, the results have been mixed, but as it applies to first amendment rights during wartime, the courts typically sidewith the state.

Espionage is the practice of spying or using spies to obtain secret or confidential information from non-disclosed sources or divulging of the same without the permission of the holder of the information. – Oxford Dictionary

Additions and Amendments

Since 1917 the Act has seen additions and addendums. These include:

Sedition Act of 1918: The Sedition Act was passed as an amendment to the Espionage Act. It criminalized various forms of expression, including any spoken or written words that aimed to incite disloyalty or contempt towards the US government, the Constitution, or the flag. First Amendment challenges, during wartime have mostly failed. The Wilson administration made it against the act to use the US Post Office for any mailing that may violate te act – 74 newspapers had been denied mailing privileges

USA Patriot Act, 2001: Following the September 11 attacks, the USA PATRIOT Act expanded the scope of the Espionage Act by enhancing surveillance and investigative powers. It broadened the definition of “national defense” and allowed for more extensive monitoring of suspected espionage activities.

Take Away

The Espionage Act of 1917 prohibited obtaining information, recording pictures, or copying descriptions of any information relating to the national defense with intent or reason to believe that the information may be used for the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation. Since 1917 there have been a couple of new amendments to the original law.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1045/espionage-act-of-1917

https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/historic-document-library/detail/espionage-act-of-1917-and-sedition-act-of-1918-1917-1918

Shell Oil to Announce Scrapping Targets on Oil and Gas Output  

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Oil and Gas Will Remain Central to Shell

Shell has looked at its unimpressive returns on renewable energy and the booming profits in its oil and gas divisions and has decided to pivot from its previous course. In an effort to regain investor confidence, Shell’s (SHEL.L) CEO, Wael Sawan, is expected to make a formal announcement of the revised strategic direction of the oil company on June 14, according to an exclusive report in Reuters.

Shifting Gears

Shell’s CEO Sawan, who previously headed the company’s oil, gas, and renewables divisions, is expected in New York next week to formalize the details of his vision, it will include updates on capital allocation, shareholder payouts and “strategic choices we’re making,” according to Sawan.

What is known before the full announcement is that Shell expects it will keep company oil output steady or slightly higher into 2030. This would represent a change from an ongoing deemphasis on oil and gas production that Shell (and other large oil companies) had previously committed themselves to. Shell has been struggling with poor returns and is looking to regain investor confidence.

On June 14th, Sawan will reportedly make the announcement at an investor conference that they are scrapping a target to reduce oil output by 1% to 2% per year. The company is already near its goal for production cuts, which it attained through selling oil assets, including its U.S. shale business.

 Returns from oil and gas typically range between 10% to %20, while those for solar and wind projects tend to be between 5% to 8%.

About Shell’s New CEO

Sawan rose to the level of CEO in January. As the new head, with solid experience in both oil and gas, and the renewable division, vowed to improve Shell’s stock performance as it lagged other energy companies. He now plans to improve company performance by keeping oil and gas central to the company’s business at least through the end of the decade – Sawan says that efforts to shift to low-carbon businesses cannot come at the expense of profits.

Shell’s former CEO, Ben van Beurden introduced the carbon reduction targets and the energy transition strategy. Sawan’s more cautious approach to the energy transition is a reversal of his predecessor’s direction.

Sustainability and Profits

In recent months the company intentionally stalled several sustainability and renewable projects, including those involving offshore wind, hydrogen and biofuels, it pointed to weak returns. Shell is also exiting its European power retail businesses, which had been thought, only a few years ago, as key to its energy transition.

Oil Company Profitability

As with many of its competitors, Shell reported record profits last year, driven mainly by strong oil and gas prices. However, the company produced 20% fewer barrels-per-day over 2019 production. Output is now expected to be flat to up slightly into 2030. New projects would have to meet internal profitability thresholds, and also depend on the success of exploration.

The shift away from further cuts in oil and gas production at Shell is similar to a move by rival BP (BP.L) made earlier in 2023. At BP, CEO Bernard Looney exited further plans to cut oil and gas output by 40% (by 2030).

A true global company, Shell Oil, headquartered in Hague, Netherlands, is a leading supplier of refined petroleum products and remains one of the world’s largest producers of oil and natural gas.

Investor Focused

According to Reuters,  “a key concern for Sawan has been the significantly weaker performance of Shell’s shares since late 2021 compared with its U.S. rivals Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N), which both plan to grow fossil fuel output.” Shell’s formal announcement next week is expected to include no change in Shell’s target of becoming a net zero emitter by mid-century as part of the Powering Progress energy transition strategy it announced in 2021, which he has described as “still the right strategy.”

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

Reuters – hell Pivots Back to Oil

Shell Oil – Who We Are

When Shorting a Stock Becomes Illegal

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com

Crossing the Line into Naked Short Selling

Shorting a stock by itself is not illegal and can even be thought of as helping the liquidity in the company’s shares as many more continuously change hands (volume). Brokers and institutional investors can also reap additional benefits. For all participating investors, it allows the opportunity for money to be made as long as the stock is moving up or down. However, among the legal shorts, there are illegal short positions being made. This has been the subject of controversy, Volkswagen in 2008, GameStop 2021, and AMC which has worked to end attempts of this kind of activity in its stock.

The Upside-Downside of Legal Short Selling

Selling a stock that you don’t own puts you, the seller at a greater risk than buying a stock. The reason is simple, stocks can theoretically go up by an infinite amount, however, they can only go down by their current value. If your shorts go up, you are losing value in your position. With this risk in mind, selling shares you don’t own, or a shorting strategy, certainly can work in your favor if your risk management short-circuits are in place and the stock’s value erodes.

A legal short position involves your broker borrowing shares on your behalf, perhaps from a large institutional holder, paying them a daily accrual rebate rate (interest) during the period that you hold the short position. The strategy is to buy them back at a lower price in the future than what you sold them at today.

Crossing the Line to Naked Short Selling

The word “naked” when it comes to most investments, suggests that you are without that which you are trading. If the same amount of shares has been borrowed on your behalf or by you as part of your short transaction, you are not naked in the position.

Naked shorting is the illegal practice of short selling shares that have not been affirmatively determined to exist. This can happen when there are so many market players thinking shares will decline in value that more shares are sold than obtainable to back up each trade.

Despite the SEC making this illegal after 2008 in response to some failing investment banks that had been sold beyond the number of shares in existence, naked shorting still goes on today.

One example still fresh in many self-directed investors’ minds is GameStop (GME) shares. In 2021, traders reportedly sold short around 140% of GME shares outstanding. This meant a substantial amount of shares of the company were sold that didn’t exist. What allowed these trades go through was something called ‘phantom’ sales, the tool of naked short selling.

Phantom Sales?

The term “phantom sales” sounds even more nefarious than “naked shorts.” What it means, is that the naked short sellers deposited digital IOUs into buyers’ accounts, promising that they will locate shares and make good delivery to the buyer as soon as possible. Unfortunately, it can become impossible when more shares are sold than exist. That creates a failure to deliver or simply “FTD” which is used in a hashtag that most that follow AMC Theatres (AMC) are familiar with.

When a stock gets oversold to the point of more shares sold than exist, it can be very bullish for the holders. This is because the short sellers desperately need to make good on their IOUs held by buyers.

If buying demand picks up in the stocks, the short positions are considered to be getting “squeezed” –  a “short squeeze” is taking place.

In the case of GME, communication made better through social media channels and stock message boards allowed individual investors to loosely coordinate and heighten the squeeze on short sellers, including large institutional hedge funds that may have had naked short positions.

Naked Shorts Banned

Imagine the problems and stress that occurs when trades don’t settle on time due to naked short-selling delivery failures.

The SEC banned the practice of naked short-selling in the United States in 2008 after the financial crisis. The ban applies to naked shorting only and not to other short-selling activities. Prior to the ban, in 2007 the regulator amended a 2005 rule called Regulation SHO. The amendment limits possibilities for naked shorting by removing loopholes that existed for some broker-dealers in 2007. Regulation SHO requires lists to be published that track stocks with unusually high trends in failing to deliver (FTD) shares.

These lists are available to investors and often used to determine where activity may become frantic.

A variant that is not banned, or in violation of SEC is rules is an FTD where the shares were located, but there is a legitimate failure to deliver. That is the short seller contacted a holder (usually through a broker) and they both agreed to terms of the short-seller borrowing authentic shares of the company.

Take Away

Short selling is a normal function of trading and not frowned upon by the regulators. However you have to be in touch with shares that are available for you to borrow at an agreed-upon interest rate. Otherwise you may find you are naked selling because you don’t own the shares, and can not make delivery.  

These rules apply to stocks that trade on a national exchange. For those stocks not listed on a major securities exchange, the SEC may require more disclosure from the transacting broker.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Gensler’s Predecessor Says SEC “Regulatory Whiplash” Bad for Investors

Posted on by phoffman@channelchek.com
Image: Securities and Exchange Commission, March 2019 (Flickr)

Is this the Most Aggressive SEC Ever? Former Commission Head Thinks So

Gary Gensler was nominated head of the Securities and Exchange Commission just after SEC Chairman Jay Clayton stepped down on December 23, 2020. Cryptocurrency exchanges welcomed the incoming Chair’s appointment as “Gensler unites a pro-regulation history with a pro-crypto viewpoint, and could finally implement the regulatory clarity many in the industry have desired,” said an opinion piece published in Coinbase two months after. It has now been two years, and Chair Gensler’s predecessor, in his new role, shared his views and criticisms this week.

Former SEC chairman Jay Clayton, who is now working in the private sector, said he believes government regulators could do a much better job serving investors and the broader financial markets. The comments came during an address (June 7) in Orlando as he spoke at the BNY Mellon Pershing Insite 23 Conference. In his talk, Clayton highlighted big differences between the SEC under the Biden administration in comparison to the Trump presidency.

“I think it’s pretty clear we’re in a very highly business-skeptical and commercial-skeptical regulatory environment,” he said. “Any time you go to extremes, either way, you get more bad than good.”

Clayton, is now the nonexecutive chair at Apollo Global Management, a large alternative asset manager. He held the position of SEC chairman from May 2017 through December 2020. He believes the regulatory whiplash leaves anyone participating in the financial markets with more questions than answers.

“People don’t know what is really happening, how long it is going to last, and what they should do about it,” he said in reference to what has been described as the most aggressive SEC ever.

Clayton acknowledged that his business is with an alternative investment house, and that he might be accused of “talking his book” as a representative of a firm that manages private investments, but explained that he believes retail class investors are being locked out of suitable investments. He believes there should be a democratization of alternative investments, which has been an SEC focus. The accredited investor policies may not be best for the average person planning for the future.

“Capital formation these days largely comes from outside the public markets, yet the investing public is largely held outside those private markets,” he said. “All investors should have access to a portfolio that looks like a well-managed pension fund. With the help of a lot of the people in this room, I think we’re going to be able to do it,” he optimistically said addressing the large group from the wealth management industry.

He called on investment management firms to do their part to help regulators by making an effort to create products that are more broadly suited to the full universe of investors. Clayton took particular issue with the current accreditation rules. Saying the 40-year-old accredited investor rule doesn’t jive with today’s reality, an environment where individual investors are largely responsible for their own retirement income.

The former SEC head pointed out what he thought to be absurd, mentioning qualified retirement accounts (401k, 403b, IRAs) that give retail investors access to highly liquid mutual funds and perhaps ETFs, but not less liquid investments that would be better suited for long-term investing objectives.

“You’re paying for liquidity that you don’t need and can’t access,” Clayton said. “Pick a target-date fund, for example, why wouldn’t there be a sliver of privates or alternatives in there? If I’m a 401(k) investor, I should be able to get something that looks like a Calpers portfolio. Why wouldn’t you have a 10% slice of privates in your retirement portfolio when you’re 50 years old?” He said referring to the large institution managing the California teachers retirement portfolio.

Take Away

The former SEC head Jay Clayton believes that the sharp move from lowering  regulatoryinvestment  hurdles, to erecting the most aggressive in history under the current leadership of Gary Gensler, is bad for investors. He doesn’t argue strongly for either side, as much as he is against sudden changes and the impact it has on investors.

Clayton also supports alternative funds for the average retail investor, especially as it relates to long-term savings such as retirement accounts.

Insite23, the investor conference Jay Clayton was addressing in Orlando, FL, draws wealth management professionals from across the US. This coming December, the Channelchek-sponsored investor conference, NobleCon19 will be held in Boca Raton, Fl. This annual conference, in its 19th year, draws institutional and self-directed investors from beyond the US, who wish to attend presentations, breakout sessions, and panel discussions with CEOs, and even former government leaders. Those attending this year’s NobleCon will get to assess lesser-known investment opportunities along with the current investment climate. Attendees can look forward to two days filled with actionable opportunities explained by those with direct knowledge at the company’s helm.

For information on attending Nobecon19, sponsoring, or presenting, click here.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek

Sources

State of Crypto: How SEC Chair Gary Gensler Could Differ From Predecessor Jay Clayton

Apollo Capital

Former SEC Chair Clayton makes case for democratizing alternative investments

BNY Mellon Insite