Author: cpereira@noblefcm.com

Snail Inc. (SNAL) – A Swing Toward Positive Cash Flow Expected

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 11, 2023

Snail is a leading, global independent developer and publisher of interactive digital entertainment for consumers around the world, with a premier portfolio of premium games designed for use on a variety of platforms, including consoles, PCs and mobile devices.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 results. The company reported quarterly results largely in line with our expectations. Q1 revenue was $13.5 million and adj. EBITDA was a loss of $3.4 million, compared with our estimates of $12.5 million and a loss of $2.6 million, respectively.

ARK Remastered. The release of a remastered version of its popular game ARK is expected later this year. The game, which will be remastered using Unreal Engine 5, will be called ARK: Survival Ascended, and will include the entirety of ARK: Survival Evolved, including previously issued DLCs. Core fans appear excited about the upcoming release, which we believe could offer a favorable revenue boost during the lead up to the ARK 2 release in 2024.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

One Stop Systems (OSS) – Expanding Military Business

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 11, 2023

One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New Award. One Stop Systems received an initial order from a new military prime contractor for OSS 3U short-depth servers (SDS) for use by a U.S. Air Force anti-electronic warfare system. OSS has already commenced shipments under an initial purchase order. This program is the company’s first with this prime contractor. It is valued at approximately $3.5 million over the next three years.

SDS. The servers feature proprietary OSS Gen 4 PCI express NVMe controllers, OSS transportable hot-swap drive canisters, and NVMe SSDs that support government encryption standards. The servers are expected to serve as a head storage node for data collection located at U.S. Air Force ground stations that house military aircraft. They will be capable of recording large volumes of simulation data and deliver it at high speeds with low latency to data scientists on the network.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Largo Inc. (LGO) – Initial Thoughts on the First Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 11, 2023

Largo has a long and successful history as one of the world’s preferred vanadium companies through the supply of its VPURE™ and VPURE+™ products, which are sourced from one of the world’s highest-grade vanadium deposits at the Company’s Maracás Menchen Mine in Brazil. Aiming to enhance value creation at Largo, the Company is in the process of implementing a titanium dioxide pigment plant using feedstock sourced from its existing operations in addition to advancing its U.S.-based clean energy division with its VCHARGE vanadium batteries. Largo’s VCHARGE vanadium batteries contain a variety of innovations, enabling an efficient, safe and ESG-aligned long duration solution that is fully recyclable at the end of its 25+ year lifespan. Producing some of the world’s highest quality vanadium, Largo’s strategic business plan is based on two pillars: 1.) leading vanadium supplier with an outlined growth plan and 2.) U.S.-based energy storage business support a low carbon future.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Largo reported 2023-1Q results generally in line with our recently-revised estimates. Revenues were a few million higher than expected, but so were operating costs, leading to operating income near expectations. Income tax expenses of $1.8 million on $0.7 million of pretax income were unexpected causing a $1.2 million net loss ($0.02 p/s) versus our expectations for breakeven results. We will seek clarification on the 268% tax rate during the upcoming conference call (5/11 at 1:00 pm EST, 1-416-764-8650).

Production and sales numbers lowered for the rest of the year. Management lowered annual production guidance to 9,000-11,000 tonnes from 11,000-13,000 tonnes. It also lowered sales to 8,700-10,700 tonnes from 10,300-11,300 tonnes and raised the upper range of its operating costs per unit sold projections. The declines were split across the second, third, and fourth quarters implying that the heavy rainfall in December that affected inventory may continue longer than expected. We have adjusted the numbers in our models to reflect updated guidance.


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Coeur Mining (CDE) – First Quarter Results Mostly In Line with Expectations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 11, 2023

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

First quarter 2023 financial results. First quarter revenue totaled $187.3 million compared to $210.1 million in the prior period and $188.4 million in the first quarter of 2022. Coeur reported an adjusted first quarter loss of $33.1 million or $(0.11) per share compared to our first quarter loss estimate of $33.8 million or $(0.11) per share and the median loss estimate of $30.7 million or $(0.10) per share. On a GAAP basis, the first quarter loss was $24.6 million or $(0.08) per share. First quarter adjusted EBITDA amounted to $25.1 million. Free cash flow during the first quarter amounted to $(109.0) million, inclusive of capital expenditures totaling $74 million.

Guidance reaffirmed. First quarter gold and silver ounces produced were 69.0 thousand and 2.5 million, respectively, while gold and silver ounces sold were 70.9 thousand and 2.6 million. We had forecast gold and silver production of 69.2 thousand and 2.3 million ounces, respectively. Silver production at the Rochester mine was ahead of our estimate. Coeur reaffirmed its 2023 gold and silver production guidance of 320.0 to 370.0 thousand ounces and 10.0 to 12.0 million ounces, respectively. Production is weighted toward the second half of the year due to mine plan sequencing and the anticipated ramp-up and commissioning of the Rochester expansion. Operationally, we expect the third quarter to be the company’s strongest based on the Rochester mine’s production profile.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Alvopetro Energy (ALVOF) – Record financial results again, but April production drops

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Thursday, May 11, 2023

Alvopetro Energy Ltd.’s vision is to become a leading independent upstream and midstream operator in Brazil. Our strategy is to unlock the on-shore natural gas potential in the state of Bahia in Brazil, building off the development of our Caburé natural gas field and our strategic midstream infrastructure.

Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Production growth combined with price increases is leading to rising revenues. 2023-1Q production rose to 2,767 boepd (up 11% annually and 2% sequentially). Monthly production had been reported, so results were in line with expectations. Realized gas prices were $12.06/mcf (up 20% annually and 8% sequentially). A biannual price adjustment in February resulted in higher rates. This was also disclosed previously, so pricing was in line with our expectations. Energy sales revenues were $18.2 million slightly below our $18.8 million estimate due to lower-than-expected oil and NGL sales.

Top line growth is flowing through to the bottom line. The company reported record Funds Flow From Operations of $15.0 million versus $10.9 million for the same period last year and above our $11.4 million estimate. Net income was $12.8 million ($0.33 per diluted share) versus $15.1 million ($0.30) also above our $9.1 million ($0.24) estimate. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Salem Media Group (SALM) – Looking Beyond The Investment Year

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Salem Media Group is America’s leading multimedia company specializing in Christian and conservative content, with media properties comprising radio, digital media and book and newsletter publishing. Each day Salem serves a loyal and dedicated audience of listeners and readers numbering in the millions nationally. With its unique programming focus, Salem provides compelling content, fresh commentary and relevant information from some of the most respected figures across the Christian and conservative media landscape.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

In-line Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $63.5 million, beating our estimate of $62 million by 2.4%.  Revenue in the quarter was driven by slightly better than expected broadcast and publishing revenues. Adj. EBITDA of $1.4 million was largely in line with our estimate of $1.7 million. 

Sizeable cost reductions. The company eliminated $5 million in annualized costs in the first quarter. The savings were included in management issued guidance for Q2 and full year 2023, and are expected to have an equal impact in each quarter moving forward. We believe that the company is managing cash flow while investing in its Digital businesses and into Salem News. 


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – Post Call Commentary and Updated Models

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Disappointing 1Q23. Management was disappointed with 1Q23 results, but a number of negative impacts were out of their hands, such as weather and customer delays, impacting production rates and profitability. However, these projects are not lost, just pushed to the right.

But Improvements Being Made. The most significant is a return to profitability for the Concrete segment in March, its first profitable month in two years. As the unfavorable Central Texas business continues to fall off, we expect further profitability improvement for the Concrete business.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Lee Enterprises (LEE) – Focused On A Growing Digital Future

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Lee Enterprises, Incorporated provides local news, information, and advertising primarily in midsize markets in the United States. It publishes 49 daily newspapers, as well as offers 300 weekly newspapers and specialty publications in 23 states. The company also provides online advertising and services; and online infrastructure and online publishing services for approximately 1,500 daily and weekly newspapers and shoppers. In addition, it offers commercial printing services. The company has a strategic alliance with Yahoo!, Inc. to provide its classified employment advertising customer base the opportunity to post job listings and other employment products on Yahoo!�s HotJobs national platform. Lee Enterprises, Incorporated was founded in 1890 and is based in Davenport, Iowa.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Post quarterly review. The company delivered a solid fiscal second quarter in spite of heavy economic headwinds and secular pressure on its print legacy business. Notably, its Digital businesses performed well, and its digital subscriber growth continues to lead the industry. We believe that the company will be able to achieve its FY 2023 revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance given its attention to costs.

Reiterates guidance. Management reiterated its previously issued FY 2023 guidance of $270 to $285 million in digital revenues, $94 to $100 million in adj. EBITDA, 632,000 digital subscribers and cash costs in the range of $610 to $620 million. While management did not provide guidance for print revenues, we are flowing through Q2 operating results to our full year 2023 forecast.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Information Services Group (III) – Starting the New Year Right

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

ISG (Information Services Group) (Nasdaq: III) is a leading global technology research and advisory firm. A trusted business partner to more than 700 clients, including more than 75 of the world’s top 100 enterprises, ISG is committed to helping corporations, public sector organizations, and service and technology providers achieve operational excellence and faster growth. The firm specializes in digital transformation services, including automation, cloud and data analytics; sourcing advisory; managed governance and risk services; network carrier services; strategy and operations design; change management; market intelligence and technology research and analysis. Founded in 2006, and based in Stamford, Conn., ISG employs more than 1,300 digital-ready professionals operating in more than 20 countries—a global team known for its innovative thinking, market influence, deep industry and technology expertise, and world-class research and analytical capabilities based on the industry’s most comprehensive marketplace data. For additional information, visit www.ISG-One.com

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Seeing More Demand. ISG’s momentum has continued to build and this quarter realized an all time high in revenue, as demand for digital services, especially cost optimization, is providing ISG with a nice tailwind through the economic environment. Companies continue to invest in digital to maintain and build competitive advantage. The client base now exceeds 900.

Record Revenue. ISG reported an all-time record revenue of $78 million, exceeding guidance and our estimate of $74 million. Recurring revenue, driven by double-digit growth in the GovernX and risk management business, reached a record $33 million, up 27% y-o-y. 


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Commercial Vehicle Group, Inc. (CVGI) – An Unexpected CEO Transition

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

CEO Stepping Down. Yesterday, CVG announced CEO Harold Bevis is resigning from his role as President and CEO, as well as a Board member, effective May 19th to become CEO of another company. The Company noted Mr. Bevis’ resignation did not result from any disagreement with the Company on any matter.

Interim CEO. Current Chairman of the Board Robert Griffin will step into an interim CEO role. On the Board since 2005, Mr. Griffin worked closely with Mr. Bevis in designing and implementing the Company’s strategy. Mr. Griffin has an extensive financial background, including as Head of Investment Banking for Barclays Capital. Other Board members with a more operational and manufacturing background will assist Mr. Griffin. CVG will be in good hands during the transition, in our view.


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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) – Looking Forward To Late-Stage Data Presentations

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Tonix is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, licensing, acquiring and developing therapeutics and diagnostics to treat and prevent human disease and alleviate suffering. Tonix’s portfolio is composed of immunology, rare disease, infectious disease, and central nervous system (CNS) product candidates. Tonix’s immunology portfolio includes biologics to address organ transplant rejection, autoimmunity and cancer, including TNX-15001 which is a humanized monoclonal antibody targeting CD40-ligand being developed for the prevention of allograft and xenograft rejection and for the treatment of autoimmune diseases. A Phase 1 study of TNX-1500 is expected to be initiated in the second half of 2022. Tonix’s rare disease portfolio includes TNX-29002 for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome. TNX-2900 has been granted Orphan-Drug Designation by the FDA. Tonix’s infectious disease pipeline includes a vaccine in development to prevent smallpox and monkeypox called TNX-8013, next-generation vaccines to prevent COVID-19, and an antiviral to treat COVID-19. Tonix’s lead vaccine candidates for COVID-19 are TNX-1840 and TNX-18504, which are live virus vaccines based on Tonix’s recombinant pox vaccine (RPV) platform. TNX-35005 (sangivamycin, i.v. solution) is a small molecule antiviral drug to treat acute COVID-19 and is in the pre-IND stage of development. TNX-102 SL6, (cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablets), is a small molecule drug being developed to treat Long COVID, a chronic post-acute COVID-19 condition. Tonix expects to initiate a Phase 2 study in Long COVID in the second quarter of 2022. The Company’s CNS portfolio includes both small molecules and biologics to treat pain, neurologic, psychiatric and addiction conditions. Tonix’s lead CNS candidate, TNX-102 SL, is in mid-Phase 3 development for the management of fibromyalgia with a new Phase 3 study launched in the second quarter of 2022. Finally, TNX-13007 is a biologic designed to treat cocaine intoxication that is expected to start a Phase 2 trial in the second quarter of 2022. TNX-1300 has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation by the FDA.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Reported Within Expectations. Tonix reported a 1Q23 loss of $33.0 million or $(0.52) per share, consistent with our expectations of a loss of $34.8 million or $(0.57) per share. During the quarter, the company reported a shift in pipeline priorities toward its CNS programs and discontinuation of some early-stage programs. There are several clinical data presentations expected during 2H23 that we see as potential drivers of the stock in 2H23. The company ended the quarter with $72.0 million in cash.

Looking Forward To Phase 3 Results In Fibromyalgia. Data was presented for the completed RELIEF Phase 3, the first of the two studies needed for an NDA. The interim analysis for the Phase 3 RESILIANT trial has been cancelled, avoiding the “statistical penalty” for the early analysis as well as saving time and money. The RESILIANT data announcement is expected in 4Q23.


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Orion Group Holdings (ORN) – A Quick Look into the First Quarter

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results are In. Orion had contract revenues of $159.2 million, a 9% decrease from the prior year’s $174.9 million. We had revenue of $175 million. Gross profit was at $5.8 million or 3.7% of revenue, down from $12.8 million or 7.3% of revenue in the first quarter of 2022. The Company had a net loss of $12.6 million, or $0.07 per share, compared to a loss of $4.9 million, or $0.16 per share. Adjusted EBITDA was a negative $4.1 million, or (2.6)% margin compared to $5.2 million or 3.0% last year.

Credit Facility and Property Sale. The Company had reached an agreement with a private lender and expects to have a new ABL credit facility completed shortly. The facility consists of a $38 million term loan and revolving credit facility of $65 million and will be used to retire Orion’s existing credit facility and for general corporate purposes. As reported previously, Orion has a contract for the East West Jones properties in Texas, with the purchase price being $36 million. It is expected to close in the third quarter of 2023.


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MAIA Biotechnology (MAIA) – 1Q23 Reported As Trial Progress Continues

Posted on by cpereira@noblefcm.com


Tuesday, May 09, 2023

MAIA is a targeted therapy, immuno-oncology company focused on the development and commercialization of potential first-in-class drugs with novel mechanisms of action that are intended to meaningfully improve and extend the lives of people with cancer. Our lead program is THIO, a potential first-in-class cancer telomere targeting agent in clinical development for the treatment of NSCLC patients with telomerase-positive cancer cells. For more information, please visit www.maiabiotech.com.

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q23 Loss Reported With Progress Review. Maia Biotechnology announced a 1Q23 loss of $4.1 million or $(0.38) per share. Progress during the quarter included announcement of preliminary safety data from its lead trial in non-small cell lung cancer, THIO-101, and patient enrollment in Part B. Preclinical data was presented on THIO in liver cancer, an indication planned for the THIO-102 trial later in 2H23. Cash on March 31 was $7.6 million, excluding $5.75 million raised in a public offering completed in late April.

THIO-101 Part A Safety Results Were Presented. THIO-101 is the first trial testing THIO in combination with Libtayo, an anti-PD-1 checkpoint inhibitor from Regeneron. The data was from the Part A safety lead-in stage that tested a dose of 360 mg in 6 patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer. There were no dose-limiting toxicities or safety issues reported. As of April 2023, the first two patients enrolled in Part A were still alive and reached survival endpoints of 10 and 9 months. Both patients have advanced Stage IV metastatic disease and had failed third and fourth line of therapy, with life expectancy of about 6 months.


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