Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
A Chat. We had an opportunity to speak with David Kanen about his Lifeway investment and letter to the Board. Mr. Kanen reiterated a number of points he brought up in his letter, which we encourage investors to read. Mr. Kanen noted his desire to see other investors become familiar with the Lifeway opportunity.
What About the Proxy Contest? Mr. Kanen observed that, in his opinion, even if Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky are unable to mount a proxy contest this year, the terms of the settlement agreement would enable Edward and Ludmila to renew their quest at the 2024 annual meeting.
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Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Delivering on the Transformation. Led by CEO Ken Peterman, Comtech is delivering on its transformation. 3Q23 was the sixth consecutive quarter of top line revenue growth, with improving adjusted EBITDA margins. The Company is seeing noticeable improvement in its growth and profit improvement initiatives, in our view.
3Q23 Results. Revenue of $136.3 million was up 1.9% sequentially, within guidance. Y-o-Y revenue was up 11.6%. We were at $136 million. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $12.5 million, versus $11.2 million in 3Q22. We were at $12.2 million. Comtech reported a net loss of $9.2 million, or a loss of $0.33 per share, compared to a net loss of $1.7 million, or $0.06 per share last year. Adjusted EPS was $0.11 versus $0.25. We had forecast a net loss of $4 million, or a loss of $0.14 per share and adjusted EPS of $0.12.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Family. The saga between Lifeway CEO Julie Smolyansky and her brother, Edward, and mother, Ludmila, continues, with each side claiming the other breached the Proxy settlement reached last July. While the legal battle continues to unfold, the most recent Court decisions determined, “… no basis in law or fact that remains as to the invalidity of Mr. Smolyansky’s nomination of an alternate slate of directors and such nomination is void ab initio and is not a valid solicitation,” according to the Company.
The Twist. In a twist, David Kanen of Kanen Wealth Management issued a letter sent to Julie Smolyansky and the Board of Directors. According to the letter, Mr. Kanen owns approximately 4.1% of the outstanding LWAY shares and intends to vote his shares in support of the recent slate nominated by Edward and Ludmila Smolyansky.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Location, location, location. Eskay Mining is focused on the exploration and development of precious metal volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) targets along the Eskay rift in a region of northwest British Columbia known as the Golden Triangle. The company’s Eskay precious metal rich VMS project encompasses 52,600 hectares, or 26 square kilometers, of highly prospective property within proximity to several world class gold deposits, including the adjacent past-producing Eskay Creek Mine, a high-grade gold-silver rich VMS deposit considered among the world’s most precious metal-rich volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits.
2023 drill program. The 2023 drill program will focus on newly identified geophysical targets at Maroon Cliffs and Hexagon Mercury, along with additional work at Tarn Lake, TV and Cumberland. In total, we expect the program will entail roughly 6,000 to 7,000 meters of drilling.
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Baudax Bio is a pharmaceutical company focused on innovative products for acute care settings. ANJESO is the first and only 24-hour, intravenous (IV) COX-2 preferential non-steroidal anti-inflammatory (NSAID) for the management of moderate to severe pain. In addition to ANJESO, Baudax Bio has a pipeline of other innovative pharmaceutical assets including two novel neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBs) and a proprietary chemical reversal agent specific to these NMBs. For more information, please visit www.baudaxbio.com.
Gregory Aurand, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Deeper dive into the results. The electomyography (EMG) detailed analysis confirmed the earlier top-line data released showing the highest dose of BX1000 was comparable to rocuronium (current standard). There was a clear dose response for BX1000 on maximum T1 suppression, with comparable results for the 1.5x ED95 dose of BX1000 and the 2x ED95 dose of rocuronium, strongly suggesting lower BX1000 dosing needed.
What is T1 suppression? Train of Four (TOF) testing is a method of peripheral nerve stimulation, using electrodes placed along the nerve pathway. An electrical impulse will cause a contraction (twitch). With increased NMB dosing, the twitch response fades, with the fourth (T4) response lost first, then T3, then T2, and finally the first (T1). The number of twitches observed indicates the NMB level achieved, determining the minimum amount needed to achieve the desired effect, while reducing the likelihood of over-paralysis and prolonged muscle weakness. A T1 level of suppression (or one twitch) represents approximately 90% block, a level suitable for short term procedures including intubation.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
1QFY24 Revenue Light. Net revenue of $94.4 million was below our and consensus estimates of $99 million and $99.7 million, respectively. The revenue miss was driven by some traffic weakness at factory stores during March, although subsequent months have shown improvement. However, Pura Vida showed its first y-o-y sales improvement in five quarters, while Vera Bradley full line and e-comm produced solid results.
But Margins Improved. Gross margin expanded 150 basis points to 54.8% reflecting lower freight costs and inventory sell through while SG&A fell to 58.9% of revenue from 60.3% (both non-GAAP) last year reflecting strong cost control. GAAP EPS loss was $0.15, while adjusted EPS loss was $0.09, compared to EPS loss of $0.21 and $0.18, respectively, in 1QFY23, and our $0.19 EPS loss estimate.
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PDS Biotech is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company developing a growing pipeline of molecularly targeted cancer and infectious disease immunotherapies based on the Company’s proprietary Versamune® and Infectimune™ T-cell activating technology platforms. Our Versamune®-based products have demonstrated the potential to overcome the limitations of current immunotherapy by inducing in vivo, large quantities of high-quality, highly potent polyfunctional tumor specific CD4+ helper and CD8+ killer T-cells. PDS Biotech has developed multiple therapies, based on combinations of Versamune® and disease-specific antigens, designed to train the immune system to better recognize diseased cells and effectively attack and destroy them. The Company’s pipeline products address various cancers including HPV16-associated cancers (anal, cervical, head and neck, penile, vaginal, vulvar) and breast, colon, lung, prostate and ovarian cancers.
Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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ASCO Presentation On Head and Neck Cancer Reviewed. PDS Biotechnology held a conference call to review data from the Phase 2 VERSATILE-002 trial that was presented at the annual ASCO meeting on Monday, June 5. Management also briefly commented on a misinterpretation posted on social media sites that caused a sharp price decline and a trading halt in the stock.
VERSATILE-002 Data Consistent With Previous Results. As discussed in our Research Note from May 30, the presentation updated the Phase 2 VERSATILE trial data presented at ASCO ’22. At that time, preliminary data from the first 17 patients to reach the 9-month evaluation post was presented. The update included data from 34 patients that had reached the 12-month evaluation point.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Results from Telbel deep drilling program. Maple Gold released complete gold assay results from the first phase of deep drilling at the Telbel Mine area of the Joutel Gold Project which is held in the 50/50 joint venture between Maple and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited. Multi-element assay results are pending. The joint venture completed a total of 7,343 meters of drilling in three master drill holes and four wedge drill holes with holes TB-22-001 and TB-22-003 and their respective wedges testing the down-plunge extension of gold mineralization beneath the historic Telbel workings. Hole TB-22-002 was a step-out to test the southeast continuity of the Eagle-Telbel system.
High-grade potential at depth. Results from the deep drilling program support the strike and depth continuity of the Eagle-Telbel Mine Horizon beyond the current limits of drilling and the presence of multiple mineralized horizons along with the presence of high-grade gold mineralization beneath the underground mine workings and deepest historical gold intercepts. All three holes intersected significant horizons of semi-massive to massive sulfides, with Hole TB-23-003W2 intersecting significant gold mineralization approximately 575 meters below the lowest level of historic mining at Telbel.
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FAT Brands (NASDAQ: FAT) is a leading global franchising company that strategically acquires, markets, and develops fast casual, quick-service, casual dining, and polished casual dining concepts around the world. The Company currently owns 17 restaurant brands: Round Table Pizza, Fatburger, Marble Slab Creamery, Johnny Rockets, Fazoli’s, Twin Peaks, Great American Cookies, Hot Dog on a Stick, Buffalo’s Cafe & Express, Hurricane Grill & Wings, Pretzelmaker, Elevation Burger, Native Grill & Wings, Yalla Mediterranean and Ponderosa and Bonanza Steakhouses, and franchises and owns over 2,300 units worldwide. For more information on FAT Brands, please visit www.fatbrands.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Twin Peaks IPO. FAT Brands announced plans to pursue an initial public offering of its Twin Peaks restaurant business. Management previously had indicated the significant value creating potential of Twin Peaks for FAT Brands’ shareholders, although the timing is sooner than we had expected. FAT expects to retain a majority ownership.
The Business. Twin Peaks recently opened its 100th location and should end the year with approximately 115 lodges, an almost 40% increase in unit count since the acquisition. The brand also has a committed development pipeline for an additional 109 franchise locations. Over the next several years, Twin Peaks plans to double its unit count to more than 200 lodges with about 80% franchised. The planned unit growth is expected to increase systemwide sales to approximately $1.0 billion. Over the next three years, Twin Peaks’ contribution to FAT Brands adjusted EBITDA should increase from $40 million to $60 million.
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Defense Metals Corp. is a mineral exploration and development company focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of mineral deposits containing metals and elements commonly used in the electric power market, defense industry, national security sector and in the production of green energy technologies, such as, rare earths magnets used in wind turbines and in permanent magnet motors for electric vehicles. Defense Metals owns 100% of the Wicheeda Rare Earth Element Property located near Prince George, British Columbia, Canada. Defense Metals Corp. trades in Canada under the symbol “DEFN” on the TSX Venture Exchange, in the United States, under “DFMTF” on the OTCQB and in Germany on the Frankfurt Exchange under “35D”.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Pilot plant program. The Wicheeda REE project pilot plant is being configured to produce a high purity rare earth precipitate suitable as feed stock for a rare earths element (REE) separation plant. The objective of the pilot plant is to demonstrate, at a larger scale, the processing of Wicheeda flotation concentrate to produce rare earths using the acid bake hydrometallurgy process and to collect data for a preliminary feasibility study (PFS) which is expected to be completed during the first half of 2024.
Phase II completed. Defense Metals recently completed Phase II hydrometallurgical pilot plant test work and has commenced work on the Wicheeda preliminary feasibility study. Phase II operations were performed by SGS Canada Inc. at Lakefield, Ontario and were completed in early May and entailed processing 370 kilograms (kg) of flotation concentrate produced in an earlier flotation pilot plant operation. The recent work provided the metallurgical test data required for Defense Metals’ engineering consultants to commence the design work that is an important part of the PFS.
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Gregory Aurand, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Healthcare Services & Medical Devices, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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2nd Tranche. The Company announced Monday they had closed a 2nd tranche for $288,000 (currencies in Canadian $). This tranche, on the back of the closed $3.86 million 1st tranche announced previously, consisted of gross cash proceeds of $41,250 and $241,141 in convertible debt conversions that had matured May 1, 2023. In this 2nd tranche, 1.922608 million units at $0.15 per unit were issued. Each unit consisted of one share of common and one purchase warrant exercisable at $0.35 per share.
Clarification To Company May 5, 2023 Press Release And Correction. In the Company’s press release Monday June 5, 2023, it was clarified that the $3.86 million non-brokered 1st tranche placement, which closed early May, consisted of $1.267 million in gross cash proceeds and debt conversions of $2.589 million. While the two tranches remove $2.84 million in liabilities, gross cash proceeds from the tranches totaled approximately $1.31 million. In our prior noted dated June 1, 2023, we indicated ChitogenX raised $5.3 million subsequent to its fiscal January 31, 2023 yearend. However, gross cash proceeds were approximately $3.0 million.
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Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Navy Award. Yesterday, Kratos announced it was awarded a contract by the Naval Surface Warfare Center Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD) for thermo-mechanical and aerothermal ground testing of thermal protection system materials in ballistic reentry and reentry-like environments in its Kratos SRE business unit in Birmingham, Alabama. The five-year contract includes options with a total value up to $46.7 million, with an initial award of $8.6 million under a cost-plus-fixed-fee contract.
Details. Under the award, Kratos will test materials supporting technical efforts for the U.S. and the U.K. with direct oversight from the NSWCDD Reentry Systems Office. The contract enables Kratos SRE to conduct ground testing of thermal protection materials at external ground test facilities and produce flight hardware for the Navy. It requires the unique ability to test and collect data at maximum temperatures of 5,500 degrees Fahrenheit to properly test materials in reentry-like environments.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Agreement. MustGrow announced the Company has agreed to a Contract Services Agreement with Bio Ag Product Strategies to develop and commercialize MustGrow’s soil amendment and biofertility technologies, including TerraSante. The agreement is a non-exclusive contract, enabling MustGrow to seek out additional commercial collaborations and funding partnerships. Neither the length of the agreement nor any financials were disclosed.
Who is Bio Ag? Bio Ag Product Strategies is a consulting firm that provides consultation to manufacturers of microbial products for agriculture and support products including biostimulants and prebiotics. According to MustGrow, Bio Ag Product Strategies has tremendous knowledge and a great track record of working with organizations to help develop, market, and target key retailers and farmers.
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