Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q4 results below expectations. The company reported Q4 revenue of $276.7 million, 23.6% below our forecast of $362.0 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $57.0 million, below our forecast of $116.1 million. The weaker than expected results were due in large part to low Medicare Advantage plan turnover, which limited the total revenue from new policy sales in the quarter.
Low plan turnover. Management noted that the average incremental benefits added to Medicare Advantage plans in 2023 was lower than usual, which resulted in less plan switching by Medicare Advantage enrollees. Of the more than 300,000 consumers it served, GoHealth’s PlanFit Checkup recommended that roughly 1/3 of them stay with their existing plans.
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Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
4QFY24. Revenue totaled $133.3 million, compared to $147.1 million in 4Q23, and below our estimate of $137 million. Gross margin improved to 52.3% from 40.8%. Reported net loss of $1.9 million, or $0.06/sh, compared to a net loss of $28.2 million, or $0.91/sh in 4Q22. Adjusted EPS was $0.11 versus a net loss of $0.03/sh last year. This year’s extra week added approximately $6 million to quarterly revenue and EPS by $0.01/sh. We had forecasted net income of $5 million, or $0.16/sh.
New Day. Project New Day launches in mid-July and is the first manifestation of the work under Project Restoration. New Day is a full pivot from where Vera Bradley is today. It includes, among other things, the reveal of a new and elevated full line branding and marketing, product store design, and website design.
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Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Outlook for 2024. Since his appointment as CEO, Mr. Kiran Patankar has re-oriented and re-positioned the company for successful outcomes by expanding the geological team, taking an axe to corporate general and administrative expenses, and strengthening the data driven exploration program to refine the targeting process. Maple Gold is in the process of updating three dimensional models for Douay and Joutel and prioritizing targets. The next phase of drilling is expected to commence this year, along with a follow-up program at Eagle. We expect more details regarding the next phase of drilling in April.
Technical bench strength. Maple Gold recently added three members to its geological team, including Mr. Daniel Johansson, Senior Exploration Geologist, Mr. Remi Clairet, Project Geologist, and Mr. Jackie Long, Database and Modeling. We think the collaborative effort of an expanded team, along with managing its database in-house, will sharpen and enhance the accuracy of target generation. The team will work in close collaboration with Agnico Eagle’s exploration team.
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Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Hemisphere announced an independent evaluation of its reserves highlighting a 5% increase in NPV10 value for proved reserves. The estimated value for total proved reserves (PR) when discounted back at a 10% rate was $325 million ($3.27 per share) versus $308 million in the reserve from last year. The increase reflects higher West Canada Select oil prices in future years with the completion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline running from Alberta to the Pacific Coast. The value of proved developed producing (PDP) reserves rose 9% as the company was active drilling in 2023 and moving reserves into the PDP category.
The company was able to replace reserves reduced by production through drilling and acquisition. Hemisphere produced 1.1 mmboe in 2023 and added 1.0 mmboe of reserves through the drillbit or from acquisition. As a result, proved reserves were 12.1 mmboe in the most recent report versus 12.2 mmboe last year. The company spent $16 million to drill eight wells in addition to purchasing land and seismic. Just two years ago, capital expenditures were only $8 million. Finding, Development and Acquisition costs per proved reserve added in 2023 were $14.82/boe, an attractive price given current oil prices.
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Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Initiating Coverage. We are initiating coverage with an Outperform rating and a $9 price target. While our initial recommendation is based on a sum of the parts analysis, we believe that the shares will eventually reflect its attractive ongoing businesses following its current rationalization and streamlining of its portfolio.
A transitional story. Since spinning off from Xerox in 2017, the company has sold several businesses, changed key members of the management team and simplified the business. Importantly, in the second half of 2023, the company announced the divestitures of three businesses that are expected to close in the first half of 2024. While the transitional story is not complete, there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel.
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InPlay Oil is a junior oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in Alberta focused on light oil production. The company operates long-lived, low-decline properties with drilling development and enhanced oil recovery potential as well as undeveloped lands with exploration possibilities. The common shares of InPlay trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IPO and the OTCQX Exchange under the symbol IPOOF.
Michael Heim, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Energy & Transportation, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Quarterly production in line with recently reduced guidance. InPlay reported 2023 production volume of 9,025 boe/day consistent with guidance of 9,000-9,100 boe/day. We had expressed concern that the previous decline in guidance reflected a sharper production decline curve than previously expected. Management assures that the decline curve has not changed and the decline reflects a shift towards drilling oil wells which have a lower initial production rate than gas wells.
InPlay released a reserve report for the 2023 year end. The reserve report shows a modest reduction in reserves and reserve value implying a reserve replacement rate slightly below 1.0 times. The calculation is somewhat complicated by changing assumptions regarding assumed energy pricing and recoverability. The report indicated a finding, development and acquisition cost of $23.36/boe which is attractive compared to current prices.
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Comtech Telecommunications Corp. engages in the design, development, production, and marketing of products, systems, and services for advanced communications solutions in the United States and internationally. It operates in three segments: Telecommunications Transmission, Mobile Data Communications, and RF Microwave Amplifiers. The Telecommunications Transmission segment provides satellite earth station equipment and systems, over-the-horizon microwave systems, and forward error correction technology, which are used in various commercial and government applications, including backhaul of wireless and cellular traffic, broadcasting (including HDTV), IP-based communications traffic, long distance telephony, and secure defense applications. The Mobile Data Communications segment provides mobile satellite transceivers, and computers and satellite earth station network gateways and associated installation, training, and maintenance services; supplies and operates satellite packet data networks, including arranging and providing satellite capacity; and offers microsatellites and related components. The RF Microwave Amplifiers segment designs, develops, manufactures, and markets satellite earth station traveling wave tube amplifiers (TWTA) and broadband amplifiers. Its amplifiers are used in broadcast and broadband satellite communication; defense applications, such as telecommunications systems and electronic warfare systems; and commercial applications comprising oncology treatment systems, as well as to amplify signals carrying voice, video, or data for air-to-satellite-to-ground communications. The company serves satellite systems integrators, wireless and other communication service providers, broadcasters, defense contractors, military, governments, and oil companies. Comtech markets its products through independent representatives and value-added resellers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
CEO Change. Yesterday, in a surprise move, Comtech’s Board of Directors terminated Ken Peterman as President and CEO. Mr. Peterman also will cease to serve on the Board. Mr. Peterman’s termination was for conduct unrelated to Comtech’s business strategy, financial results, or previously filed financial statements, according to the Company. The Board appointed John Ratigan, Chief Corporate Development Officer (CCDO), as interim Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately.
Ratigan Background. Mr. Ratigan, a former Chief Executive Officer, is an accomplished executive who brings over three decades of experience and senior leadership expertise across the global satellite technology sector. He has an extensive background in satellite communications, as well as a deep familiarity with Comtech, having spent ten years at EF Data Corp. prior to its acquisition by Comtech in July 2000. Mr. Ratigan was named CCDO in November 2023.
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The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Air Support. GEO’s wholly-owned subsidiary, GEO Transport, Inc. (“GTI”) has been awarded a five-year contract, inclusive of option periods, to provide air operations support services on behalf of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. GTI will act as a subcontractor to CSI Aviation, Inc., which has been selected by ICE as the prime contractor.
Details. The new five-year contract is expected to generate approximately $25 million in annualized revenues for GEO. GTI first began providing air operations support services to ICE as a subcontractor to CSI Aviation under a nine-month emergency contract starting in July of 2023. The original July emergency contract to provide air operations support for ICE was expected to generate up to approximately $16 million in revenues over a 9-month period.
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One Stop Systems, Inc. (OSS) designs and manufactures innovative AI Transportable edge computing modules and systems, including ruggedized servers, compute accelerators, expansion systems, flash storage arrays, and Ion Accelerator™ SAN, NAS, and data recording software for AI workflows. These products are used for AI data set capture, training, and large-scale inference in the defense, oil and gas, mining, autonomous vehicles, and rugged entertainment applications. OSS utilizes the power of PCI Express, the latest GPU accelerators and NVMe storage to build award-winning systems, including many industry firsts, for industrial OEMs and government customers. The company enables AI on the Fly® by bringing AI datacenter performance to ‘the edge,’ especially on mobile platforms, and by addressing the entire AI workflow, from high-speed data acquisition to deep learning, training, and inference. OSS products are available directly or through global distributors. For more information, go to www.onestopsystems.com.
Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
New Win. One Stop Systems has secured a pilot project to provide a liquid immersion-cooled data storage system for use on a deployable ground station. Management expects the project to lead to follow-on production orders. Yesterday’s announcement follows the Company’s recently announced direct to chip liquid cooled solution for a foreign navy submarine application, expanding OSS’ market leading cooling solution approaches for rugged high performance computing at the edge.
A Couple of Firsts. The win was procured through a global defense prime contractor and represents the first liquid immersion-cooled high-performance compute solution for a U.S. intelligence agency mobile ground station application. It also represents a new intelligence community end user for OSS.
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Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Cadrenal Therapeutics Reported FYQ2023. Cadrenal announced a loss of $8.4 million or $(0.62) per share for FY2023 and $1.1 million or $(0.07) per share for 4Q23. The full-year loss consisted of Research and Development expense of $4.1 and General and Administrative Expense of $3.6 million, close to our estimates. Cash on December 31 was $8.5 million.
Tecarfarin IND Is Expected During 1H24. Cadrenal continues to work toward finalizing the trial protocols for the tecarfarin Phase 3 study, its oral anticoagulant for prevention of systemic thromboembolism in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients with atrial fibrillation (irregular heartbeat, AFib). This is an Orphan population that can not use the commonly prescribed direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) drugs.
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Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Posts strong Q4 results. Q4 revenues increased a solid 15.2% to $59.7 million, nicely above our $56.2 million estimate. In addition, gross profit margins were strong at 53.1% (above our 48.4% estimate), supporting better than expected adj. EBITDA ($13.6 million versus our estimate of $10.4 million).
Prepares for cookie-less world. Management indicated that it is working with Google and has visibility into a cookie-less future. Google has already deprecated cookies in 1% of its Chrome users and is expected to complete the transition in the third quarter 2024. Given that AdTheorent does not rely on consumer IDs, we believe that the company is well positioned to benefit in a post cookie environment.
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Haynes International, Inc. is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of technologically advanced, nickel and cobalt-based high-performance alloys, primarily for use in the aerospace, industrial gas turbine and chemical processing industries.
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Merger update. Haynes International recently filed preliminary proxy materials in anticipation of a special meeting of stockholders to vote on the company’s proposed merger with North American Stainless, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Acerinox S.A. Acerinox is a leader in the manufacturing and distribution of stainless steel and high-performance alloys and will acquire all the outstanding shares of Haynes for $61.00 per share in an all-cash transaction. While the date of the shareholder meeting has not been announced, we believe it is tentatively planned for April 2024.
Closing is expected in the third calendar quarter.The transaction has been unanimously approved by the board of directors of both companies and is expected to close in the third calendar quarter of 2024, subject to the satisfaction of closing conditions, including receipt of regulatory approvals and approval by Haynes stockholders. Acerinox will invest an additional $200 million into its U.S. operations, including $170 million into Haynes’ operations to help modernize and expand capacity to support continued growth in both flat and round products.
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Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
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Pivotal Trial Enrollment Complete. Unicycive announced that it has completed enrollment in the pivotal trial testing OLC (oxylanthanum carbonate), its phosphate binder, in ESRD patients on renal dialysis. This is a milestone for the trial that also confirms the timeframes we had expected for the trial results, NDA application, and product launch.
Data and NDA Expected Later In 2024. The pivotal trial is an open-label single arm study. Its primary endpoint is tolerability, with secondary endpoints of safety and pharmacokinetics. Statistical analysis is not required. The trial has a target enrollment of 60 patients and is expected to announce data in late 2Q24/mid2024.
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