The ODP Corporation (ODP) – 1Q24 First Look


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Office Depot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies a range of office products and services. It offers merchandise, such as general office supplies, computer supplies, business machines and related supplies, and office furniture through its chain of office supply stores under the Office Depot, Foray, Ativa, Break Escapes, Worklife, and Christopher Lowell brand names. The company also provides graphic design, printing, reproduction, mailing, shipping, and other services through design, print, and ship centers. It has operations throughout North America, Europe, Asia, and Central America. The company also sells its products and services through direct mail catalogs, contract sales force, Internet sites, and retail stores, through a mix of company-owned operations, joint ventures, licensing and franchise agreements, alliances, and other arrangements. As of December 31, 2008, Office Depot operated 1,267 North American retail division office supply stores and 162 international division retail stores, as well as participated under licensing and merchandise arrangements in 98 stores. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Boca Raton, Florida.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q24 Results. Net sales were $1.87 billion, down from $2.11 billion in 1Q23 and slightly below our $1.95 billion estimate. A challenging overall economic environment and 56 fewer Office Depot stores, y-o-y, drove the revenue contraction. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $82 million, down from $131 million and below our $123 million estimate. Net income declined to $15 million, or $0.40/sh, from $72 million, or $1.71/sh. We had forecasted $64 million, or $1.72/sh.

A Decision on Varis. Put out the “For Sale” sign. Responding to shareholder suggestions, among other things, management and the Board came to the decision to sell the Varis unit, which just has not begun to generate revenue as originally anticipated. While waiting for the sale to occur, the operating costs of Varis have been reduced by approximately one-third.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – Overcoming a Weak 1Q24


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Electrical Systems. ES was star performer in the quarter, as increased pricing in the segment geared the segment towards positive growth. However, with two of its core end markets seeing a flat to declining demand in 2024, we expect some muted performance of the segment for the year. Management continues to focus on business wins for the segment and new facilities to supports its growth. The ES remains on a path to become the Company’s largest.

Optimization. Management continues to focus on finding ways to optimize the business and to improve profitability. The Company has rightsized some of its labor due to rising labor costs in Mexico and management has discussed offsetting cost pressure with customers. Alongside these, management has a focus on its supply chain and is looking to optimize its freight and logistics costs. The Company still has levers to pull to achieve higher optimization and cost reduction, in our view.


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Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI) – National Advertising Appears To Be Stabilizing


Thursday, May 09, 2024

Beasley Broadcast Group, Inc. owns and operates 61 stations (47 FM and 14 AM) in 15 large- and mid-size markets in the United States. Approximately 20 million consumers listen to the Company’s radio stations weekly over-the-air, online and on smartphones and tablets, and millions regularly engage with the Company’s brands and personalities through digital platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, text messaging, digital and web applications and email. The Overwatch League’s Houston Outlaws esports team is a wholly owned subsidiary. The Company also owns BeasleyXP, a national esports content hub, and AXLR-R8, a Rocket League Championship Series team, in its esports portfolio. For more information, please visit www.bbgi.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Mixed Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $54.4 million, in line with our estimate of $55.1 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $0.7 million, which was below our estimate of $1.4 million. While operating results were mixed in the quarter, the company is focused on cost reductions. Additionally, national advertising was up 1.1% in Q1, which is a development we view favorably.

Q2 pacings softer, but…Management indicated that Q2 advertising pacings are down in the low single digits, a little more than our modest 2.1 % decline estimate. Notably, the company largely will mitigate the revenue variance with cost cutting initiatives, which is expected to save $6.8 million in costs this year. 


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V2X (VVX) – A Solid Start to 2024


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

For more than 70 years, Vectrus has provided critical mission support for our customers’ toughest operational challenges. As a high-performing organization with exceptional talent, deep domain knowledge, a history of long-term customer relationships, and groundbreaking technical expertise, we deliver innovative, mission-matched solutions for our military and government customers worldwide. Whether it’s base operations support, supply chain and logistics, IT mission support, engineering and digital integration, security, or maintenance, repair and overhaul, our customers count on us for on-target solutions that increase efficiency, reduce costs, improve readiness, and strengthen national security. Vectrus is headquartered in Colorado Springs, Colo., and includes about 8,100 employees spanning 205 locations in 28 countries. In 2021, Vectrus generated sales of $1.8 billion. For more information, visit the company’s website at www.vectrus.com or connect with Vectrus on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Off on the Right Foot. V2X delivered solid first quarter results, starting 2024 off on the right foot. Revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings all came in above our estimates. OpTempo remains elevated in CENTOM and INDOPACOM given the recent events occurring in those areas, driving V2X results.

1Q24. Revenue of $1.0 billion was up 7.1% y-o-y, driven by 22% growth in the Middle East and 7% growth in the Pacific. We had forecasted $950 million in revenue for 1Q. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter totaled $69.1 million, or a 6.8% margin, and up from $68 million in 1Q23. Adjusted net income was $28.6 million, or EPS of $0.90, compared to $25.1 million, or EPS of $0.80 last year. We had estimated $24.8 million, or $0.77/sh.


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The GEO Group (GEO) – First Quarter In-Line but Potential Upside for the Year


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q Results. Total revenues decreased to $605.7 million from $608.2 million last year. We estimated revenue of $604 million. Net income for the quarter was $22.7 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, compared to $28.0 million, or $0.22, in the previous year. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $117.6 million compared to $130.9 million last year. We estimated net income of $23.6 million, or $0.19 per share, and adjusted EBITDA of $120 million.

ICE Populations. For 1Q24, GEO experienced average ICE pops in the 13,000 range, with that number carrying over into the second quarter. After a dip beginning in late March, overall ICE pops have rebounded back to the 37,000 level, according to GEO management. With the typical seasonal increase in crossings, it is possible numbers could trend up to the 41,500 bed authorized level.


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NN, Inc. (NNBR) – A Productive Quarter


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

1Q24 Revenue Impacts. The lower y-o-y volume was driven by the loss of $4 million of rationalized revenue at underperforming plants, mostly offset by $3 million of revenue growth at healthy plants. Pricing had a negative $3 million impact y-o-y as 1Q23 benefitted from end-of-life premium pricing during the Irvine plant closure.

Making Progress. Management note that three of the seven underperforming plants have returned to the positive side of the ledger. About one-half of the $100 million of unprofitable revenue has been returned to at least breakeven, with the remainder expected to be resolved by year-end.


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Kratos Defense & Security (KTOS) – The Revenue Jet is Taking Off


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (NASDAQ:KTOS) develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems for United States National Security related customers, allies, and commercial enterprises. Kratos is changing the way breakthrough technologies for these industries are rapidly brought to market through proven commercial and venture capital backed approaches, including proactive research, and streamlined development processes. At Kratos, affordability is a technology, and we specialize in unmanned systems, satellite communications, cyber security/warfare, microwave electronics, missile defense, hypersonic systems, training and combat systems and next generation turbo jet and turbo fan engine development. For more information go to www.kratosdefense.com.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Strong Results. Blowing past our expectations, revenue for the first quarter was $277.2 million, a 19.6% increase over the prior year’s $231.8 million. The increase includes 19.5% of organic revenue growth. Our estimate was at $250 million. Net income for the quarter of $1.3 million was an improvement from a net loss of $7.0 million last year, highlighting the Company’s revenue growth and improved margin (operating margin of 2.5% vs. 0.2% last year). We forecasted a net loss of $4.0 million.

Unmanned Systems. A highlight of the impressive revenue growth is Kratos’ Unmanned Systems segment. The segment had organic revenue growth of 21.8% in the quarter, with a more impressive 23.8% revenue growth factoring in the STS acquisition. The segment also generated approximately 25.5% of the total bookings for the quarter with a book to bill of 1.4 to 1.0. We expect the segment to continue to gain momentum as management places more emphasis on developing the segment throughout 2024 and beyond.


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Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) – Great Start to the Year


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corporation is the largest provider of dredging services in the United States. In addition, Great Lakes is fully engaged in expanding its core business into the rapidly developing offshore wind energy industry. The Company has a long history of performing significant international projects. The Company employs experienced civil, ocean and mechanical engineering staff in its estimating, production and project management functions. In its over 131-year history, the Company has never failed to complete a marine project. Great Lakes owns and operates the largest and most diverse fleet in the U.S. dredging industry, comprised of approximately 200 specialized vessels. Great Lakes has a disciplined training program for engineers that ensures experienced-based performance as they advance through Company operations. The Company’s Incident-and Injury-Free® (IIF®) safety management program is integrated into all aspects of the Company’s culture. The Company’s commitment to the IIF® culture promotes a work environment where employee safety is paramount.

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Results. Great Lakes reported strong revenue of $198.7 million, beating out our expectation of $170 million. Higher capital and coastal protection project revenues led to the $40.7 million increase y-o-y, partially offset by lower rivers and lakes project revenue. Gross profit improved $33.5 million to $45.6 million for the quarter through improved utilization and project mix, resulting in a margin of 22.9%, beating out our expectation of 10.6%.

An Improved Bottom-Line. Following the topline, Great Lakes’ bottom-line greatly improved from last year, beating our estimates, including operating margin of 15.8% from a negative 0.5% (estimated a 2.4% margin) and net income of $21.0 million, or EPS of $0.31, from a net loss of $3.2 million, or a loss of $0.05/sh. We estimated net income of $0.8 million, or EPS of $0.01.


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Gray Television (GTN) – Core Advertising Surprisingly Strong


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q1 Results. The company reported Q1 revenue of $823.0 million, modestly beating our estimate of $814.0 million by 1.1%. Adj. EBITDA for the quarter was $197.0 million, beating our estimate of $171.0 million by 15.2%. Notably, core advertising was up 4.2% from the prior year period, excluding political revenue, even higher than the comparable quarter in 2019. 

Favorable core undercurrent. The company experienced growth in several national advertising categories, including automotive and consumer goods, which was up high single digits for the quarter. Management guided 2024 core advertising to be above pre-Covid 2919 levels in spite of displacement in core advertising in political election years.


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Eledon Pharmaceuticals (ELDN) – Islet Cell Transplant Patient Treated As Kidney Data Presentation Is Announced


Wednesday, May 08, 2024

Robert LeBoyer, Senior Vice President, Equity Research Analyst, Biotechnology, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

New IIT Study Has Started, With Phase 1b Data Kidney Trial Update In June.  An Investigator-Initiated Trial (IIT) testing tegoprubart in islet cell transplantation has treated its first patient. Interim data from the Phase 1b trial testing tegoprubart in kidney transplantation was announced, with presentation at a medical meeting scheduled for June 1 to June 5, 2024.

Tegoprubart Is Currently In Two Kidney Transplant Trials. Eledon continues to report follow-up data from its Phase 1b open-label trial for tacrolimus as it enrolls patients in the double-blind Phase 2 BESTOW trial. Tegoprubart acts through a different mechanism than tacrolimus (the current standard treatment), with potential to have greater protection against rejection with improved function. 


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Bowlero (BOWL) – Establishes Another Lane For Growth


Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Bowlero Corp. is the worldwide leader in bowling entertainment, media, and events. With more than 300 bowling centers across North America, Bowlero Corp. serves more than 26 million guests each year through a family of brands that includes Bowlero, Bowlmor Lanes, and AMF. In 2019, Bowlero Corp. acquired the Professional Bowlers Association, the major league of bowling, which boasts thousands of members and millions of fans across the globe. For more information on Bowlero Corp., please visit BowleroCorp.com.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Jacob Mutchler, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Solid Q3 results. The company reported Q3 revenue of $337.7 million, in-line with our Street low estimate of $337.0 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $122.8 million, which missed our estimate of $132.5 million by 7.3%. Notably, the quarter was negatively impacted by poor weather during the first three weeks of January. 

Favorable outlook. The company added 23 new locations so far in FY 2024, with 2 coming in Q3, including the Lucky Strike Miami location. Additionally, the company has 4 new builds opening in the next nine months. Separately, the company acquired the largest water park in Illinois, Raging Waves, for an undisclosed amount. We view the acquisition favorably, as it provides another lane for growth in the out of home entertainment space.


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NN, Inc. (NNBR) – Releases 1Q24 Results; Business Transformation Continues


Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Improved Profitability. Management’s strategic transformation program is showing up in NN’s results. The first quarter of 2024 was the third quarter in a row of improved quarterly results. TTM adjusted EBITDA improved for the fourth consecutive quarter. Although the business environment remains unsettled, management is taking the steps to both win new business and reduce costs.

1Q24 Results. Net sales of $121.2 million were down 4.6% versus the year ago period, primarily as a result of rationalized volume. We had forecast $120 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $11.3 million, or 9.3% of sales, up from $8.1 million, or 6.4% of sales last year. We had estimated $9.6 million. NN reported an adjusted net loss of $4 million, or a loss of $0.08/sh, compared to an adjusted loss of $5.7 million, or $0.12/sh, in 1Q23. We were at an adjusted net loss of $5.2 million, or a loss of $0.10/sh.


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Commercial Vehicle Group (CVGI) – A Tough Start to 2024


Tuesday, May 07, 2024

Joe Gomes, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Joshua Zoepfel, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

A Tough Start. While the year-over-year comparison was expected to be difficult given the record top-line performance in 1Q23 and the expected decline in Class 8 truck production, first quarter 2024 results missed our and consensus estimates. However, 1Q24 results did improve sequentially. The one bright spot remains the Electrical Systems business, which posted top-line improvement y-o-y, although operating segment operating income declined, partly due to restructuring costs.

1Q24. Revenue declined 11.6% y-o-y to $232.1 million, below our $244 million estimate and the consensus $241 million estimate. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $12.7 million, down 35.9% y-o-y. We had forecast $15.5 million, and consensus was at $16.1 million. CVG reported adjusted net income of $4.4 million, or EPS of $0.13, versus adjusted net income of $9.2 million, or $0.28/sh in 1Q23. We were at $6.7 million and $0.20/sh, with consensus also at $0.20/sh.


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